Dl CU MOI TRUdNG DONG NAM A: THJC TRANG VA MOT SO DE XUAT QNG PHO NGUYEN THI THUY TRANG* Dat van de Theo so lieu cua Quy Dan so' Lien Hdp Qud'e (UNFPA), nam 2015 cd 244 trieu ngfldi di efl, chiem 3,3% dan so toan the gidi'^' Cung vdi qua trinh phat trien, nhflng bie'n doi ve mdi trfldng sdng, hau va cae dieu kien tfl nhien dang gdp mdt phan cang ldn vao cae nguyen nhan dan de'n hien tfldng di efl eua loai ngfldi Theo ban JJdc tinh toan eau nam 2015 (Global Estimates 2015) cua Trung tam Giam sat Di ddi ndi dia (IDMC), tfl nam 2008 de'n nam 2014, moi nam cd 26,4 trieu ngfldi phai di ddi cac tham hpa thien nhien gay (tflcfng dflpng mdi giay cd mdt ngfldi phai di ddi) Nhflng ngfldi mat npi d tham hpa thien nhien se bupc phai di ddi de'n ndi d mdi tam thdi hoac lau dai, gdp phin vao so ngfldi di efl cang tang tren the gidi Di efl dflpc coi la mpt each thfle dd'i phd lau ddi va hieu qua cua ngfldi trflde nhflng bie'n ddng bat Ipi cua tfl nhien Hdn hai thap ky trflde, Uy ban Lien chinh phii vl bien doi hau (IPCC) da canh bao: " mdt nhong anh hfldng nghiem trpng nha't ciia bien doi hau la anh hfldng de'n qua trinh di cfl cua loai ngfldi"'^' Ddng Nam A vdi so dan ddng due (chiem gin 10% dan sd' the' gidi) dflpc coi la mdt diem ndng ciia hien tflpng di efl toan ciu Trong tong so dan di cfl tren toan the gidi, hang nam so ngfldi di efl d Ddng Nam A chiem khoang 9%*^', dd di cfl mdi trfldng ddng gdp mdt phin dang ke Mot so' nflde Ddng Nam A nhfl Philippines, Indonesia hay Viet Nam ludn n i m nhdm nhflng nflde chiu anh hfldng nhilu nhat bdi cac tham hpa thien nhien Nam xu the chung ciia toan the gidi nhung hien tflpng di cfl mdi trfldng d Ddng Nam A ed nhflng dac diem rieng Tac ddng cua mdi trfldng la van dl ma ngfldi va cac qud'e gia phai ddi mat hang Hien tfldng di efl mdi trfldng gay ed nhflng tac ddng sau sic den sfl phat trien kinh te-xa hdi ndi ehung cua tat c4 cac qudc gia khu vfle Viec tim hieu va phan tich cac nguyen nhan va dac diem eiia van de la can thiet de gdp phan quan trpng viee tim cac giai phap kiem soat va giam bdt tac ddng tieu cflc ciia hien tflpng di cfl mdi trfldng Di cv^ moi trxictng Tfl xfla de'n nay, mdi trfldng va thdi tiet ludn la nhong yeu td anh hfldng trfle tie'p de'n viec Ifla chpn noi cfl tru eua eon ngfldi ' Ths Nguyin Thi Thuy Trang, Trirdng Dai hoc KHXH va NY, DHQG Ha Noi 30 Trong xa hdi hien dai, eung vdi nhung tflU cua khoa hpe cdng nghe, ngfldi dan din bdt phu thupc vao tfl nhien Mac du vay, loai ngfldi ehfla bao gid va cd le khdng bao gid tranh dflprc nhflng anh hfldng, tac dpng eiia mdi trfldng thien nhien Tren the gidi van ton tai nhung khu vfle rat dl chiu ton thflcfng tac ddng ciia mdi trfldng Trflde nhflhg tae ddng ba't Ipi cua mdi trfldng va thdi tiet, ngfldi dan dung trflde hai Ifla chpn: each thfl nhat la tie'p tuc sdng tai ndi minh van sdng, tim each khic phue cac yeu td bat ldi cua mdi trfldng va dfla cac giai phap nham thich nghi vdi mdi trfldng sdng hay cai thien thu nhap; each thfl hai la hp se di ddi de'n ndi khac an toan hdn va cd nhflng diiu kien thuan Ipi hdn cho cupc sdng cua minh Trong phin ldn cae trfldng hdp, ngfldi dan se Ifla chpn each thfl nhat vi di efl thfldng di kem vdi nhflng ton that ldn ca vl khia eanh tai chinh va khia canh tam ly, xa hdi Da sd ngfldi dan d nhflng vung di td'n thflcfng tac ddng cua mdi trfldng la nhflng ngfldi thupc nhdm ngheo, khdng ed diiu kien di ddi de'n noi d mdi Hp eung khdng mud'n rdi bd nPi sinh sdng quen thude va la ndi hp cd nhflng md'i quan he than thie't Ngfldi dan se cd' ging thich nghi vdi mdi trfldng thay dd'i, da dang hda nghi nghiep va ke' sinh nhai khdng mud'n phai rdi bd que hfldng va cdng dong xa hdi ma minh gin bd Tuy nhien, trfldng hpp cac tham hpa thidn nhien bat ngd xay ra, gay nhflng thidt hai nang ne hoac nhflng no lfle khae phue va thich nghi khdng dam bao eho sfl shih t i n va cac diiu kien sdng cua ngfldi dan thi ho se tinh den Ifla chpn thfl hai la di ddi de'n ndi d mdi Theo ti'nh chat cua di cfl mdi trfldng, lOM dfla ba loai di cfl mdi trfldng la: Thfl nha't la nhUng nguai di cu mdi truibng Nghien citu Ddng Nam A, sd 9/2016 khdn cdp (environmental emergency migrants) la nhiing ngfldi di efl tam thdi khiing hoang hay mdt hien tflcfng moi trfldng hoac thdi tiet ba't ngd Thfl hai la nhiing ngudi di cU mdi trudng bdt buoc (environmental forced migrants) la nhflhg ngfldi di efl cac dieu kien mdi trfldng bi xdi mdn Thfl ba la nhitng ngudi di cU dugc khuyen khich hogc tit nguyen (environmental motivated migrants) hay edn gpi la nhflng ngfldi di efl kinh te' yeu td moi trfldng la nhflng ngfldi Ifla chpn di cfl nham tranh cac van dl cd the xay tflpng lai Nhdm thfl hai va thfl ba (di cfl moi trfldng b i t budc va di efl mdi trfldng tiT nguyen) cd the quyet dinh cua chinh ngfldi di cfl (hp khdng each nao khac ngoai di cfl hay hp tfl dfla quyet dinh di efl vi sfl an toan va Icfi Ich cua minh) hoac chinh sach, chien Iflpc eiia qud'c gia hoac eua dia phfldng - Nguyen nhdn cua hien tuang di cUmdi trudng Viec tim hieu md'i hen he cu the gifla tae dpng cua mdi trfldng va di cfl thfldng la cdng viee khdng ddn gian \d thdng thfldng yeu td moi trfldng khdng nha't thiet la nguyen nhan trfle tiep hay ed the tao mdt nhdm di dan rieng biet Cac ye'u td mdi trfldng thfldng ket hpp vdi cac nguyen nhan khac nhfl kinh te, xa hpi de cau nen nguyen nhan cila qua trinh di cfl Khi ndi de'n nguyen nhan cua hien tflpng nay, ngfldi ta thfldng tinh de'n cac yeu td day (pushing factors) va cae yeu td keo (pulhng factors) Cae nhan td day la nhflng tac ddng tieu cflc hoac thay doi bat ldi eiia mdi trfldng tfl nhien de'n ddi sdng ngfldi tai ndi hp sinh sdng Nhung tac ddng ed the xay den mdt each bat ngd trfldng hdp cac tham hpa thien nhien dot ngdt nhfl bao, lu lut, dpng da't Nguyin Thi Thuy Trang - Di cUmdi trudng d Ddng Nam A sat Id da't, Ngfldi dan bi mat ndi d sau cae tham hpa thien nhien xay thfldng di ddi tam thdi de'n eae vung lan can va trd vl sau tham hpa qua di wh tai xay dflng lai ndi sinh sdng Tuy nhien, cung ed nhflng trfldng hdp ngfldi di ddi se trd nhflng di dan lau dai va khdng trd lai que hfldng eua minh Nhflng tae dpng mang tinh diy cdn cd the la cac anh hfldng hay bie'n doi dan din dai han bat ldi cho cupc sdng ngfldi nhfl han ban, d nhiem mdi trfldng, bien doi halu, da't nhiem man, Trong cae trfldng hpp nay, ngfldi dan cd the tfl nguyen Ifla chpn di ddi di ndi khac de dam bao sfl an toan va eae dieu kien thuan Ipi eho cude sdng eiia minh hoac bi budc phai di ddi chinh sach hay chidn Iflpc cua qud'c gia hoac dia phflong Ben canh cac nhan to day, nhttng nhan to hut ddng vai trd nguyen nhan cua hien tflpng di cfl mdi trfldng bao gom nhflng diiu kien tfl nhien thuan Ipi, dieu kien va chinh sach phat trien kinh te-xa hdi phu hdp cua nhung dia diem ngfldi dan di cfl tam thdi de'n hoac cd y dinh di cfl tdi Nhflng nhan td' cpng hfldng vdi cac nhan td' day se tae dpng de'n quyet dinh di cfl tam thdi hay Mu dai eiia ngfldi dan 31 va d nhiem nguon nflde Cae diem chiu tac dpng nhieu nhat bao gom nhflng vting bd bien tha'p, ndi tap trung eae phd ldn, nhong vung chau tho ddng due dan cfl, eae dao thap va nhflng khu vfle chiu anh hfldng thfldng xuyen tfl cac tran bao tang efldng Tai nhflng 'dilm ndng' nay, mfle dp ton thflctng mdi trfldng thfldng eao Phan flng ehu yeu trflde eae tae dpng bat Ipi tfl mdi trfldng, ngoai cae bien phap giam nhe tae dpng tieu cfle va thleh nghi, la di cfl Bang va dfldi day eho thay cac nflde d khu vfle Ddng Nam A thfldng xuyen nam nhdm cae qud'c gia chiu anh hfldng nhieu nha't tfl sfl bie'n doi mdi trfldng Tfl bang cd the thay so 15 nflde de ton thflcfng nhat bie'n doi hau nam 2011, ed nflde d Ddng Nam A la Phihppines, Myanmar, Campuchia va Thai Lan Theo dfl doan cua Trung tam phat trien toan cau (My) nhfl bang 2, sd' 20 qud'e gia cd ddng dan chiu anh hfldng nhilu nhat mfle nflde bien tang vao nam 2050 thi cd den nflde Ddng Nam A Khu vfle dong bang sdng Mekdng, sdng Hong va sdng Irrawaddy la nhung vung dl bi ton thfldng nhat cac tae ddng tfl mdi trfldng d Ddng Nam A Mdt so phd ldn nhfl Manila, Jakarta hay Bangkok nam d vi tri gin vdi mfle nflde bien va rat Hipn t r a n g d i cti m o i tnfcfng of D o n g de bi anh hfldng mfle nflde bien tang Nam A len Cac vung dpc eae eon sdng Irrawaddy, Cae nflde Ddng Nam A phai dd'i mat vdi Salween, Chao Phraya, Mekdng va sdng kha nang so ngfldi di cfl mdi trfldng tang Hong hay eae dao Sumatra, Java va quin cao vi hau het cae nflde d khu vfle nam dao Phihppines thfldng xuyen phai hflng nhdm nhttng qud'e gia dl bi ton chiu nhong tran bao ldn vdi ton that ldn ca thflcfng nhat eae tae ddng cua bien doi vl ngfldi va tai sin Ldc xoay xay vdi hau hay t h i m hpa thien nhien'^l t i n suat cang cao tai Lao va Nhijng van de mdi trfldng tae ddng nhieu Phihppines Indonesia, Philippines, Thai nhat den cac qud'c gia Ddng Nam A bao Lan va Viet Nam la nhttng nflde bi anh gom mfle nflde bien tang cao, bao, lu lut, hfldng nhilu nhat hien tfldng nflde bien han ban, ldc xoay, Id dat, d nhidm khdng tang eao Bien doi hau gay cac hien Nghien citu Ddng Nam A, sd 9/2016 32 Bang Nhang ntfdc d i ton thtfofng nhat tac dpng cua b i e n dot h$u • Bangladesh AnDd • • • • • • • Zimbabwe Myanmar Ethiopia Campuchia Thai Lan Malawi Pakistan • Madagascar • Nepal • Mozambique • Philippines • Haiti • Afghanistan Nguon: ADB Briefs No.9, Facing the Challenge of Environmental Migration in Asia and the Pacific, 9/2011, tr Bang 10 quo'c gia bi co so' dan chiu anh htfofng n h i e u nhat miic niidfc b i e n tang nam 2050 (tripu ngvtcfi) An Dp 37.2 Bangladesh Trung Quoc Indonesia Philippines Nigeria Vipt Nam Nh$t B a n ! My Ai C$p 27.0 , 22.3 20.9 13.6 9.7 9.5 9.1 8.3 6.3 ' NhOng nflde Dong Nam A khac nhom 20 nflde dflng dau la Myanmar (13), Malaysia (16), Thai Lan (20) Nguon: Bdn theo ABB Briefs No.9, Facing the Challenge of Environmental Migration in Asia and the Pacific, 9/2011, tr tflpng thdi tiet bat thfldng va han ban, anh hfldng ldn den ddi sdng va ke sinh nhai eiia ngfldi dan d miln Nam Viet Nam, Manila eiia Philippines, Jakarta eiia Indonesia va Bangkok ciia Thai Lan Viee quan ly eae nguon tai nguyen thien nhien cung la va'n dl dang lflu tam d Ddng Nam A O nhilm khdng va nguon nflde anh hfldng den da sd ngfldi ddn, dac biet la nhflng ngfldi sdng dpc cae sdng ldn Nhfl da ndi tren, viec tim hieu moi hen he gitta cac yeu to' mdi trfldng va di cfl khdng dcfn gian vi tae ddng bat ldi cua moi trfldng thfldng khdng phai la nguyen nhan trfle tie'p din de'n di cfl hay tao mot nhdm di dan rieng biet Cae tac ddng eua mdi trfldng thfldng ke't hdp vdi nhttng yeu td kinh te, xa hdi va tham ehi la chinh tri khae dan de'n quyet dinh di efl cua ngfldi dan Do dd, viec dfla nhflng sd' thd'ng Nguyen Thi Thuy Trang - Di cUmdi trudng d Dong Nam A ke chinh xae ve di dan mdi trfldng gay thfldng rat khd khan Ddng Nam A khdng phai la ngoai le Dfla tren nhung sd heu thd'ng ke ciia cac qud'e gia ve sd' ngfldi mat nha cfla hay bupc phai di ddi sau cae tham hpa thien nhien hay eae tac ddng bat Ipi cua mdi trfldng, mpt sd cP quan nghien cflU da ed ging dfla nhflng sd' thd'ng ke ed ban ve hien tfldng Theo bao cao ciia Trung tam kiem soat di cfl npi bp (IDMC) nam 2015, khoang thdi gian nam, tfl nam 2008 de'n 2014, d Ddng Nam A cd 24 trieu ngfldi phai di ddi ndi d cae tac dpng cua mdi trfldng va hau'^' Nhi&ig so' heu dflpc dfla vl so di dan tae ddng eiia mdi trfldng d Ddng Nam A thfldng dflng lai d nhOtng so vl so' ngfldi bude phai di ddi cac cu sdc mdi trfldng Viec xac dinh chinh xac so' ngfldi phai di cfl cac tae dpng trfle tie'p va gian tiep cua mdi trfldng la vd eung khd khan Vi d u ve di cvC d o moi tntdfng gay rcu * TrUdng hcfp sieu bdo Philippines Haiyan, Ndm 2013, sieu bdo Haiyan dd khien khodng trieu ngitai Philippines phdi di ddi, chu yeu Id ngudi ddn d cdc vimg phia Tay vd Bdng qudn ddo Visayas Khu VUc chiu dnh hitdng ngng ne nhdt cua bdo Haiyan la nhiing viing ngheo nhdt, kem phdt trien nhdt vd co ndng lite ddi vcri thdm hga thdp nhdt cita Philippines Can baa bg vdo dd khien hdng trdm nghin nguai phdi sa tdn khdn cdp Sau can bdo di qua, nhiing tdn phd ngng ne cua nd vd viec citu trg dien cham chgp da ddn den mdt ldn sdng di cU ngi bd ldn Theo To chUc di ddn qudc te (lOM), sau bdo tan, mdi ngdy cd khodng 5000 ngitai rcfi Tacloban 33 den cdc vimg phia Bdc ddo Samar hay ddo Cebu Mgt tuan sau can bdo di qua, trung binh mdi ngdy khodng 10.000 ngudi rdi Tacloban Chinh cdc tdc gid bdo cdo ciia lOM phdi cdng nhgn rdng viec thong ke cdc so chinh xdc la rat kho khdn vi cdc dieu kien khd khdn sau bdo, hien titang di trd vd tdi dinh cU cua ngudi ddn thay doi lien tuc vd chi phi cho viec khdo sdt, thong k& rat cao Khodng mgt thdng sau can bdo di qua, nhieu ngttdi da quay trd lgi nhd ciia hg nhUng viec tdi thiet vdphuc hoi Id vd ctmg kho khdn Nai d, sinh ke deu bi tdn phd Nhieu ngUdi dd di cU den cdc khu chugt a cdc thdnh l&n nhU Cebu hay Manila lOM thong ke dUac khodng 20.000 ngudi dd den Manila, da so Id nhiing ngudi tuoi lao ddng, co gdng kiem ke sinh nhai de nudi song cdi vd gia dinh NhUng ngUdi ndy thudng den cdc khu vitc ddng due ddn cU, mice ngheo cao vd khdng eo sit hd trg cdn thiet NhUng ngUdi quay lgi viing bi bdo tdn phd nhdn dugc hd trg cda chinh phd de tdi dinh cU nhUng chi phi cho viec phitc hoi thudng cao han nhieu so vdi mite hd trcJ-^K ' * Tham hpa biin trdo & Indonesia (2006) Thdng 5/2006, bim ciing vai nUdc vd ndng dd phun trdo tif sdu 3.000m dudi long ddt tgi khu vitc cdch thdnh Surabaya, Indonesia, nai cd trieu ddn, han 35km Biin nhanh ehdng trdn cae ldng ldn can, nhdn chim nhd ciia, rugng dong, dUdng xd, trudng hge vd cae nhd mdy Den cud'i ndm 2006, han 15.000 ngudi dd bude phdi rdi khoi nhd cila hg Chinh quyen dia phucmg dd dUng cdc trgi sa tdn tgm thdi cho ngudi di tru nhUng phdn l&n Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A, sd9/2016 34 s6 hg dd di d&i de'n nhUngjiai co bgn be hay ngUdi thdn Mgi nd lite ngdn chgn viec biin trdo deu thdn bgi Trong nhiing ndm qua bim vdn tiep tuc trdn ra, mgc dii v&i tSc cham han, nhUng cung khiin hdng nghin ngit&i phai di d&i Ben ndm 2014, bim bao phu khodng 600ha ddt cua huyen, phd hdy 11.241 ngdi nhd vd khiin 38.700 ngUdi phdi di cU din cdc khu vitc khdc Bin nguyen nhdn cda hien tUgng ndy vdn ehUa duac tim vd nhUng ngUdi mdt nhd cita khdng the quay trd ve qu& huang cua hg Nhiing ngdy ndy biin vdn tiip tuc trdo l&n vd mdt s6 nhd khoa hgc du dodn hien tuang ndy tiip tuc vdng 20 ndm tin Dac diem cua hipn trftfng di cxi moi tnidng b Dong Nam A Hien tflpng di cfl mdi trfldng d cac nflde Ddng Nam A cd mdt sd dac diem chung sau: Thit nhdt, nhflng ngfldi phai di ddi mdi trfldng gay thfldng la nhflng ngfldi ngheo, sdng tai nhung vung kem phat trien va de ton thflcfng nhung bie'n doi mdi trfldng Cupc sdng va ke sinh nhai cua nhflng ngfldi phu thudc vao thien nhien, cd nhflng bie'n ddi bat ldi, hp it cd kha nang khic phue nen budc phai di ddi di npi khac de tim kiem diiu Iden sdng tdt hdn Thit hai, khac vdi hien tflpng di efl ndi ehung, da so la di efl qua bien gidi qudc gia de tim kiem eae ed hdi kinh te' va xa hpi tdt hdn*''', di cfl mdi trfldng chu yeu dien ben cac qud'c gia Sd di nhfl vay vi nhfl da ndi dac diem dau tien, nhflng ngfldi di cfl mdi trfldng thfldng la nhflng ngfldi ngheo d cac vung kem phat trien, hp It cd kha nang va nhflng diiu kien cin thie't de di efl nflde ngoai Hien tflcfng di cfl nflde ngoai ed xay nhflhg khdng bie'n va thfldng dfldi hinh thfle mpt thknh vien cua gia dinh di efl lao dpng sang nflde khac de tao thu nhap nudi sd'ng gia dinh Trong trfldng hp(p sau tham hpa thi§n nhien nghiem trpng va bat ngd, nhflhg ngfldi mat nha ciia va bupc phai di ddi thfldng ddi de'n cac vung lan can Hien tflpng di efl thfldng dien ngan han, sau tham hpa qua di ngfldi dan thfldng tim each trd vl ndi d cu cua minh va tiep tue sd'ng d dd Vdi cae trfldng hdp di cfl dai han, bie'n doi bat ldi eua mdi trfldng thfldng la mdt nhflng nguyen nhan, ket hdp vdi cae nguyen nhan khac din de'n viec di cfl cua ngfldi dan Di cfl trfldng hpp thfldng theo hfldng di ddi de'n thi Qua lich sfl khu vfle, sfle hut va sfl lien kit xa hdi, eae cd hpi kinh te da khien ngfldi dan di ddi den eae phd hoac cac vung ven dd Day chinh la nhflng nhan td mang tinh hut quan trpng khien ngfldi dan rdi khdi que hfldng cua ho trflde nhflhg bien doi bat Ipi cua mdi trfldng sd'ng Theo sd lieu eua Vien Nghien cflU Ddng Nam A, Singapore, dan sd dd thi d Ddng Nam A la 15% td'ng dan so, nam 2010 la 42% va dang tiep tue tang len