275 DANH GIA KHA NANG PHAT DIEN GIO CONG SUAT L 6 N TAI BINH DINH • • Le Van Lull, Le Viet Huy, Pham Xuan Thanh Hoang Hai SDTI, Du ong Quang Ve '''' ̂ ̂ Viin Vdt ly Dig cdu 18 Hodng Qudc Viet, Cdu gidy,[.]
275 DANH GIA KHA NANG PHAT DIEN GIO CONG SUAT L N TAI BINH DINH • • Le Van Lull, Le Viet Huy, Pham Xuan Thanh Hoang Hai SDTI, Du-ong Quang Ve ' -^ ^ Viin Vdt ly Dig cdu 18 Hodng Qudc Viet, Cdu gidy, Hd Npi Email: lvluu(a).isp.vast.ac.vn Tel: 844-7562801, Fax: 844-8364696 Tom tat: Dua tren sd lieu du dn cdp nhd nude vi phdn bd van tdc gid theo chiiu cao tgi Binh Dinh, cdc tdc gid xdy dung dudng cong phdn bd cdc cdp tdc dp gid (phdn bd Weibull) xdc dinh cdc tham sd c, k, cdc dgc trung tdc dp gid di xdc dinh tug bin phdt diin gid thich hap vdi diiu kiin gid Binh Dinh Ciing vai cdc tug bin JACOBS, SUDWIND, WIND WORLD, tinh tdng dien ndng phdt ndm, xdc dinh hi sd cdng sudt cho khu vuc Binh Dinh (0,45) di tinh tdng dien ndng ndm theo tdc dp gid trung binh ndm (hi s6BetzldO,37) Kit hap cdc kit qud tinh todn profin thdng dung ciia tdc dp gid tgi Binh Djnh, bdn dd phdn bd tdc dp gid ciia WMO (1981) vd True Wind Solutions LLC (2001), cdc tdc gid xdc dinh: a dp cao 65m tgi Binh Dinh, tdc dp gid trung binh ndm V = 6,50m/s Vdi dp cao 65m tren bdn phdn bd tdc dp gid cua True Wind Solutions, rdt nhieu nai cd tdc dp gid Idm tir 6,5m/s din 9,0m/s Diiu chieng td rdng: Diin gid cd the gdp phdn chiin luac ndng luang qudc gia din ndm 2020 Gid - Tua bin - Diin gid Mo-dau Viet Nam nim khu vyc gio miia nhiet ddi [8], vdi bd bien dai tren 3000km Hang nam c6 nhilu khii khong di chuyen den thay ngy tri tren lanh thi Song, CO thi phan biet hai miia gio chii ylu: vl miia Dong: Cac khii khong tir phuong Bac trdn ve, vdi cac hudng gio chinh la Tay Bic, Bdc va Dong Bac vl miia Ha: Cdc khii khong tir phuong Nam trdn len, vdi cdc hudng gio chii ylu: Tay, Tay Nam va Dong Nam Ngodi tren biln Dong c6 hai trung tam gio Idn: trung tam gio thuoc viing Luzon philipin) vd trung tam gio Con Dao - Trudng Sa, dnh hudng den che gid ciia nude m [7]- Tuy theo tga dia ly, dia hinh vd tinh chat mat dem ciia timg noi ma hudng vd t6c ^ gid khdc Tuyln tap cac cong trinh nghidn ci>u vat ly Dja c i u 2008 276 Danh gia kha nang phat dien bing sue gio voi cong suat Idn tai Binh Dinh Cac tac gia dimg tdi lieu d va ngoai nude vl van toe gid de ddnh gid khd nang phat dien bang sire gio: Bdn dd cua To chuc Khi tuang the giai (1981) Theo ban dh phan bo tic gio ciia T6 chirc Khi tugng thi gidi, 1981 [16]; tai cao 50m, tir Binh Dinh din Binh Thuan, tic gio dao dgng tir 6,4m/s den 7,0m/s, img vdi mat nang lugng gid tir 300 din 400W/m^ Viing ven biln cdn lai tren lanh tho, tic gio dao dgng tir 5,6m/s din 6,0m/s, mat nang lugng gio tu 200 din 300W/ml Cac phin c6n lai tren lanh thi, tic gio trung binh nam khd thip, nho hon 5,6m/s, mat nang lugng gio thap hon 200W/m 2 Bdn cua True Wind Solutions LLC (2001) Nam 2001, T6 chirc True Wind Solutions LLC (My), [17] dugc Ngan hang thi gidi tdi trg kinh phi, da su dung so lieu gio d cao 10m cua Viet Nam vd Thdi Lan, cimg vdi so lieu gio d cao 40m ciia Vien Vat ly Dia cau tai Binh Dinh vd d dp cao 36m tai Phuket, Thai Lan de xay dyng ban phan bo tdc gid d hai cao 35m va 65m cho nude Dong Nam A: Viet Nam, Lao, Thdi Lan vd Campuchia Tren ban d6 phan b6 toe gio tai cao 65m: nhieu vimg ven bien vd them luc dia tir Binh Dinh din Binh Thuan, phia bac phi H6 Chi Minh, Tay Nguyen, tren day niii Trudng Son thuoc Trung Bg, c6 t6c gio trung binh tir 7,0 den 9,0m/s, co the khai thac dien gio vdi cong suat Idn, noi ludi dien quoc gia, theo bdng phan bo cdc cap t6c gio dudi day Bang T6ng cong su§t tiem nang inng vdi cac d p tdc gio d cao 65m Gio y l u Kha M^nh R^t mgnh Cyc mgnh 9m/s Di^n tich (km^) % di^n tich dat 197.342 100.361 25,679 2.187 113 60,6% 30,8% 7,9% 0,7% qua nho Tiem nang cong suat (MW) Khong si> dung 401.444 102.716 8.748 452 Cac dac trung Tuy nhien, cd hai bdn phan bo tic gio neu tren chi dimg lam tai lieu tham khdo, vi chiing deu diing so lieu d cao 10m sau tinh toan din cdc cao 30, 50, 60m, khong the sir dyng lam tai lieu lap dy dn khd thi xay dyng cac bai tua bin phdt dien gio Cdc nhd dau tu xay dyng cdc dy dn khd thi chi dya vdo s6 lieu gio tryc tilp, tai cdc vi tri dat tua bin gio d cao 60-70m, khoang thdi gian tir din nam Cac so lieu phdi dugc bang cdc thilt bi gio hien dai, co phan gidi cao Phin IV: VAT LY KHi QUY^N • -m Z// Cdc so lieu true tiep a dp cao 40m vii 60m Trong cac nam gan day, tai Viet Nam da c6 mgt s6 don vi tl chirc tic gio d dp cao tir 40 den 60m: » Vien Vat Iy Dia cau thuge Trung tam Khoa hgc Ty nhien vd C6ng nghe QuIc gia (riay Id Vi^n Khoa hgc va C6ng nghe Viet Nam), da thyc hien dy an ,ip nhd nude ve phan bo van toe gio theo chilu cao tai Phudc H6a - Binh Dinn, tir nam 19982000 da van t6c gi6 d cao 10m, 20m, 30m va 40m ciing vdi cdc ylu tl tugng khac d cao 3m so vdi mat dat Cac ket qua da dugc cac cong ty d vd ngodi nude sir dung, lap cac dy an kha thi xay dyng cdc bai dat tua bin dien gio: Cong ty Tomen (Nhat Ban) 1999, Cong ty diu tu vd phdt triln nang lugng Viet Nam (2000), C6ng ty trach nhiem bun han European Provider Network GimbH (Dire) nam 2006 va C6ng ty tu vin va xay dyng dien (Thanh phi H6 Chi Minh) nam 2007 » Ngoai ra, cdc don vi khac xay dyng cac thap gi6 den cao 60m: Cong ty c6 phan phong dien Viet Nam tai Do Son, cira song Bach Dang (2003-2004), ban dao Phuong Mai - Binh Dinh (2004-2005), Cong ty nang lugng sach thuoc Lien hiep Hgi khoa hgc ky thuat Viet Nam tai Cira Tiing - Quang Tri (2000), mgt s6 cong ty khac thuge Vien Dien lyc Viet Nam Tuy nhien, hau bet cac dy an kha thi xay dyng cdc bai dat tua bin gi6 tai Viet Nam deu kh6ng dugc thyc hien, thuong thuyet ve mua ban dien giira cdc c6ng ty vdi Dien l\rc Viet Nam khong thdnh cong (gia mua dien gio cung bang gid dien than xu My/lKWh, thap hon nhieu so vdi gia mua dien tren the gidi) Ket qud tinh todn so lieu gio tir 5/1998-4/2000 a Bien thien toe gio trung binh gid Dudng cong biln thien toe gid trung binh gid ngdy ciia cdc miia deu c6 dang gilng nhung khac ve toe tir gid den gid sang ve miia He va thai ky chuyin tilp, toe gio dao dong tir 3,5ni/s den 3,8m/s Ve miia D6ng, khoang thai gian toe gio xap xi 6,0m,''s Tir 11 gid den 19 gid ciia miia He va thdi ky chuyin tilp tic gio tang dan tir 4,5ni/s den 6,3m/s, ve miia Dong t6c gid tang dan tir 6,5m/s din 8.0m/s sau giam dan den 6.5m/s (D6i vdi tua bin VESTAS, toe gid bit diu phdt dien tir 4,0m/s) b Bien thien toe gio trung binh thang nam Phudc H6a, Binh Dinh nam khu vyc Trung Trung Bg, co nhieu bien dgng ve gio v l miia Done, nhirng dgt gio miia D6ng Bac co the trdn tdi khu vyc ndy vdi toe Idia Idn v l miia Ha, gio tay kho nong boat dgng manh vdo dau miia, toe gio thap tir tiiang din thdng 8, toe tang len doi chiit vao thdi ky chuyen tiep, thdng vd thdng ^oc kha Idn Tuyln tap cac cdng trinh nghidn cu-u vat ly Dja cJlu 2008^ 278 V(inys) 8.0 6.0 - 4.0 - 2.0 Gio"1 1—'—r 10 ' I 12 14 I ' ' 16 I 18 • Nam ' I 20 ' r 22 24 chuyentiSp : Mua He - : Miia Dong Hinh Biln thien tdc gio trung binh g i d ng^y 10 11 12 Thang Hinh 2 Bi§n d6i t i c gio trung binh thang n3m Ve dudng cong bien doi toe gio trung binh thdng nam co eye dai Idn nhat vdo thdng 12 vd eye dai phu vao thang 7, mgt dai dien cho miia Dong va mgt dai dien cho miia Ha Co hai eye tieu vao thang va thang Theo dudng cong biln dii tic gio trung binh thang nam thi tua bin phat dien gio manh nhit tir giira thang 10 den thang nam sau, tir thang den thang 8, tua bin phdt dien thip 279 Ph^n IV; VAT LY KHJ Q U Y £ N c Tan suat cac hudng gio va toe cua chiing Hiriai Tin t«at TiScda (*) North 12.193 9.430 NNB 3.629 NB 1.531 ENB B 1J25 1.161 BSB 2.981 SB 8.470 SSB 2.712 S 1303 SSW 2.718 SW WSW 9.688 21.753 W WNW 15.0M 3.259 NW NNW 1.967 CALM 0.818 m/l) 5.1 5.7 sa 4.1 3.9 36 4.7 SO 37 30 27 30 36 37 35 33 Hinh T i n suit v^ t6c dp cua cac hu-dng gio Tai Phudc H6a, Binh Dinh, nam co ba hudng gio chii yeu: Goc hudng SWNW chilm 52,5%, tic gi6 dao dgng tir 2,7rn/s din 3,7ni/s Goc hudng NNW-E chilm 27,2%, tic gio dao dgng tir 3,5m/s din 5,7m/s Goc hudng ENE-S chiem 18,1%), tdc gid dao dgng tir 3,6m/s din 5,0mys Khoang thdi gian c6n lai 2,2%, toe gio yeu vd lang gi6 d Dudng cong phan bo cac cap toe dg gio (phan bo Weibull) Phan bl tin suit cac cip tic gio (phan bl Weibull) Id phan bl kh6ng d6i ximg duong Hdm phan bl Weibull dugc xac dinh theo cong thirc todn hgc: /(v) = fkYv^ ycj k-\ KcJ / V exp I V ^ \c) Trong do: k - tham s6 hinh dang, c - tham so ty le V - toe gio day v>0, OO, k>0 Dya vdo sl lieu thyc d cao 40m, tir 5/1998 din 4/2000, cdc tdc gid da xdc dinh dugc dudng cong phan bl cac cip tic gio Dua h-en sl lieu tai cao 40m, cac tac gid xay dyng dudng cong phan bo Weibull, xac dmh cdc tham sl c=6,226; k=2,001; mat nang lugng gio, lam co sd dl tinh nang lugn^ Ri6- t6c gio mang nang luong Idn nhit, co nghTa rang tua bin c6 hieu qua nhat phat het cong suit'gin lan can tic Dya vao tic de chgn cac tua bin phat dien gio phii hgp vdi gio tai Binh Dinh hoac nhimg noi co toe gio tuong hi Toe co tan suat Tuyln tap cac cdng trinh nghien cu-u vat ly Dja clu 2008 280 Idn nhat chinh la cue tri ma dudng cong khong doi xung Toe gio trung bhih la gia tri trung bmh ciia tit ca cdc toe gio tix ,Om/s trd len Tir cac kit qua trinh bay tren, cho phep ta co tam nhin khdi quat ve phdt dien gio theo thdi gian ngay, thdng nam va cac hudng khdc nhau; thdi gian phat dien gio ciia timg tua bin phdt dien vdi toe bat dau phdt dien, toe phdt het cong suit, toe ngimg phat dien, vv Cac he so Weibull (c = 6.226; k =2.001) Pa/A= -pc\i] Mat nSna: iircmo ?i6 28.0 188.2WW + -) Toe dp gio mang nang lugng ion nhat V,^= c(l + —) k 24.0 20.0 8.80m/s 1/yt Toe gio CO xac suat lan nhat Vnp = c ( l - - ) 440m/s Toe gio trung binh = cr(i + i ) 5.52m/s k k :2 '3} Do lech binh phuong trung binh 16.0 cr = c[r(l+ —)-r^(l + —)]''^ ; k ^ ' 2.88ni/s k ^ — I — I — \ — I — | i ^ Q I u I n I n I u I u [ u I—| 10 12 14 Toe gio (m/s) Weibull 16 •• 18 20 22 24 Rayleigh Hinh D6 thj ham phan bd Weibull v^ Rayleigh l^ Danh gia kha nang phat dien gio vdi cong suit Ion Tinh tong diin nang nam cua mpt so tua bin theo so lieu thuc 'a De ddnh gia khd nang phat dien vdi cong suit Idn, cdc tdc gid da diing cac tua bin CO cong suat tir 500KW trd len, dien thi lli khoang 690V D l n l i ludi di|n Phin IV: VAT LY KHJ QUY^N 28] quoc gia can phdi the vd doi tin sl cho phii hgp, vdi cd tua bin diu co tic gi6 bat dau phdt dien tir 3,0m/s din 3,2m/s Nen cac tac gia tinh dien nang ciia cac tua bin bat dau tir 3,5m/s Kit qua tinh loan dugc trinh bay bang Cac so lieu tinh bang cung la cac s6 lieu tinh ham phan bl Weibull CO c=6,226; k=2,001 Ket qua tinh ciia tong dien nang nam ciia tirng tua bin tir sl lieu thyc kh6ng sai khdc nhilu so vdi sl lieu cua nhd san xuit tinh cho tirng tua bin Dii vori tua bin SUDWIND, WIND WORLD, sl lieu thyc Idn ban sl lieu cua nha san xuat co the sai khac vl tic gio Doi vdi tua bin JACOBS 43/600KW co sy khdc Idn c6 thi tua bin co tic gio bao h6a Rs = 16,0m/s dien tich quel ciia cdnh nho Hai tua bin SUDWIND c6 sir sai khac rat iih6, c6 the t6c gio bao h6a gan vdi toe mang nang lugng Idn nhat VMAX = 8,80ni/s Tua bin WIND WORLD co tic bao boa Rs = I6,0mys nhung dien tich quet ciia canh quat Idn nen co the hai so lieu thyc va ciia nhd san xuat xap xi J Tinh tong diin nang nam theo tdc dp gio trung binh nam *Xdc dinh tong dien nang nam chi biet toe gio trung binh nam ngudi ta thudng dimg c6ng thirc: E = -'py\s.T hoac E = PxT vdi P = - p F ^ " Trong do: p : mat kh6ng trung binh (kg/m'') V : t6c gio trung binh (m/s) S : dien tich quet ciia ro to (canh quat) (m^) T : thdi gian khao sat (gid) ' Tinh ting dien nang nam theo cong thirc Betz thudng thap hon theo s6 lieu thyc tren bang 2, dat khoang tir 90,3% din 100,3% ' Tinh ting dien nang nam theo cong thirc ciia WMO [17], theo toe ngimg phdt dien CO, tic phdt dien bao h6a Rs va toe gio trung binh nam V = 5,51 m/s cho thiy, cdc tua bin c6 toe phdt dien bao hoa Rs Idn tir 14,0m/s den 16,0m/s, sai so giira tinh toan vd thirc qua Idn Rieng hai hia bin SUDWIND co Rs Idn tir 11 ,Om/s din 12 Om/s, gid tri tinh theo cong thirc WMO va thyc c6 sai so +4,9% va -8,4%, vdi sai sl ta co thi chap nhan dugc TuySn tap cac cdng trinh nghiSn CLPU vat ly Dja c l u 2008 282 Bang Xac djnh tong dien nang nam theo tipng dp tdc dp gio, Lcng vdi cac tua bin 43/600kW 41/500kW V40m (m/s) SUDWIND JACOBS T h gian WIND WORLD 46/750kW 46/600kW W4800/750kW S=1320m^ , S=1452m^ S=1662m^ S=1662m^ S=1810m' Cl=3,0m/s Tkn s6 01=3,Om/s 01=3,2m/s Cl=3,0m/s Cl=3,0m/s SUcit gi6' R3=14,0m/s Rs=16,0m/s Rs=11,0m/s Rs=12,0m/s Rs=16,0m/s (%) (gio') 00=25,Om/s 00=25,Om/s CO=25,0m/s CO=25,0m/s CO=25,0m/s P v