Hiện trạng và giải pháp phát triển ngành công nghiệp dầu khí Việt Nam.pdf

HIEN TRANG VA GIAI PHAP PHAT TRIEN NGANH CONG NGHIEP DAU KHI VIET NAM PHAM MANH HA Trong xu the toan ciu boa va hdi nhap kinh te qudc te vi the ciia Viet Nam dang cang dugc khing dinh Cdng nghiep Viet Nam ndi chung va nganh Dau khf ndi rieng dang hgc hdi kinh nghiem ciia cie nude di trudc ddng thdi phat buy the manh tir thuc tien phat trien dat nude de xay dung mdt md hinh phat trien cdng nghiep mui nhgn, cd kha nang canh tranh, chiem ty trgng dang ke tai thi trudng nude va qudc te; cd nang tao bieu irng lan toi din dit va keo theo su phat trien ciia cac nganh cdng nghiep khac Chi nhu the nganh cdng nghiep Viet Nam mdi tao nhirng diem nhan nhirng budc tie'n manh me riit ngan nhanh khoing each ddi vdi cac nude khac Md hinh i'y se tao nen bin sac cdng nghiep Viet Nam ky nguyen mdi ky nguyen toan cau hoi va hdi nhap kinh te qudc te I HIEN TRANG NGANH DAU KHI VIET NAM L Tim kiem va tham dd Dau Khi Vdi vai trd la khau diu cdng nghiep dau khf cdng tic tim kiem tham dd ludn dugc Chinh pbii Viet Nam quan tam dau tu ca ve ky thuat cdng nghe Day dugc xem la mdt nhirng hoat ddng quan trgng nhat ciia Tap doan diu Viet Nam Muc tieu giai doan la xac dinh tiem nang va gia tang trir lugng diu khf, phat hien them nhieu md mdi dim bao nhu ciu ve sin lugng dau cho dit nude Bang : Sd gian khoan th am dd dang boat ddng ^^ ^_^^ Nam 2007 2008 14 15 16 12 13 14 2004 2005 2006 10 12 10 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 Viet Nam 3 7 Ngoai khoi Dat lien 3 Niroc ^~~^ Qua tim kiem tham dd cho den cac tinh toan du bao da kbang djnh tiem nang diu Viet Nam tap trung chii yeu d them luc dia (phan dat lien chi cd phat bien ve khf) Diem ndi bat cdng tic tim kiem tham diu *- Ngudn: Tap doan dim \ iet Nam den dugc trien khai nhanh tren dien rdng tir dat lien, den them luc dia va cac viing dac quyen kinh te tren bien Tir Luat diu tu ddi (12/1987), den nam 2(X)5 trir lugng diu phat hien lien tue gia tang rat dang ke Bieu 1: Tru lugng dau phat hien gia tang hang nam DKhi 1988 1990 1995 1996 1997 Ta't ca trir luong dau ciia cac be dugc phat hien cho den thdi diC-m hien tai deu d thc'm luc dia dudi 200m nude Trong sd nav cd 24 phat bien dau d be Cuu Long 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 dd cd md Bach Hd la md dau Idn nhat Pham Manh Ha, IhS, V len nghien cuu Moi Iruong va Phat trien ben vung m Pham Manh Ha - Hien trang va giai phap phat then nganh cdng nghiep dau Viet Nam; 27 phat hien (hoae kbi diu) phan bd d cac be Nam Cdn Son Malay - Thd Chu, Ciru Long va Sdng Hong Tuy nhien, dac diem hinh va phat trien rieng cua tirng be tram tich, nen tiem nang ciia be dau ciia mdi be cd khac vdi cac dac trung chinb ve diu da phat hien d eic be nhu sau: - Be Cuu Long: Chii yeu phat hien dau dd cd mdt so md dang khai thac (Bach Hd, Rdng, Rang Ddng Ruby, Luc Ngge, Su Tir Den, Phuong Ddng) Diy la be cd tiem nang chiira nhieu diu md nhai Viet Nam va hien tai be dang giai doan phat trien dinh cao - Be Nam Cdn Son: Day la be phat hien ci diu lin khf, dd ed md dau Dai Hiing; md Tay Lan Dd dang khai thac Mdt sd md khf (08 md) dang phat trien va dua vao khai thac thdi gian tdi (Rdng Ddi, Rdng Ddi Tay, Hai Thach ) - Be Sdng Hong: Tai day, chii yeu phat hien khf, dd md khf Tien Hii C va D14 dang dugc khai thac, mdi so phat hien khac d phia Nam be Sdng Hong Nhin chung miirc tham dd d be Sdng Hong cdn rat thip - Be Malay - Thd Chu: Phat hien ca dau va Trong dd cd md d viing chdng lin giira Viet Nam va Malaysia dang dugc khai thac (Bunga Kekwa - Cai nude) Phia Bic eiia be (Viing giip them luc dia Thai Lan), chu yeu phit hien Mdt sd md dang dugc thim dinh (Kim Long, ac Quy Ca Voi Hoa Mai, Sdng Ddc ) - Be Phii Khanh: Cac danh gia gia dinh ve Phii Khanh cho thiy d day cd ca diu va Vdi vi tri dia ly gin bd gin cac nha may che bien dang giai doan xay dung, neu dau d md Phu Khanh dugc xac dinh rd rang hon ve tiem nang va sdm dua vao khai thac thi day se la nhirng uu the rd net ve thi trudng tieu thu - BeTu Chinh - Vung May: La be cd trien vgng dau dii tai day chua cd cac boat ddng khoan tim kiem tham dd Hien be dugc cac dinh gia thdng nhat la tdn tai ca diu va Trir lugng dau Viet Nam da xac minh gia tang nhanh 15 nam qua Nhin chung nhieu phit hien diu khf thugc loai md ed cau triic phiirc tap md cd bam lugng CO, hoae HiS trung binh boac cao Hon nira, cdng tie tham dd mdi tap trung d viing nude ndng (200m) vdi tdng dien tich cic Id da ky hgp ddng chiem 1/3 dien tich them luc dia Nhirng phat hien ve dau khf mdi day d them luc dia phia Nam nude ta da tang them niem tin va thu hut su quan tim ciia cac nha diu tu la: Id 09-2, gie'ng Ci Ngir Vang - IX (ket qua thir via thu dugc 330 tin diu va 170.000m' khi/ngay) Ld 16-1 gie'ng Voi Tring - IX (ket qua 420 tin diu va 22.000m' kbi'/ ngiy) Ld 15-1 gieng Su Tir Vang - 2X (820 tan diu) va gieng Su Tir Den - 4X (980 tan diu/ngay) Trien khai tim kiem tham dd md rdng cac khu md Bach Hd, Rdng Dai Hiing vdi cac gieng R-10, 05DH-10 cho kei qui 650.000 m' khf ngiy dem va ddng dau 180 ti'n/ngay dem; Gieng R-10 khoan ting mdng da cho kei qui 500.000 m' khi/ngay dem va 160 tan Condensate/ngay dem Tiem nang diu kbi chua phit hien d dien ti'ch cdn kha Idn Day la co hdi, ddng thdi Cling tiem an nhieu thach thiire boat ddng tham dd tim kiem ciia Tap doan dau Viet Nam Den Tap doan da ky 57 hgp ddng dau (35 hgp ddng cdn dang cd hieu lire), vdi cie tap doan va cdng ty diu kbi qudc te' dudi nhieu binh thiire hgp tie khac nhu: Hgp ddng phan chia sin phim (PSC), Hgp ddng hgp tic kinh doanh (BCC), Hgp ddng dieu hanh chung (JOC), Lien doanh (JV) vdi tdng vdn diu tu tren ty USD Tip doan diu Viet Nam da tie'n hanh khao sat tren 300 nghin km tuyen dia chin 2D gin 40 nghin km" dia chin 3D khoan 600 gieng tim kiem tham dd thim lugng va khai thac vdi tdng sd met khoan tren 2.0 trieu km Mdt sd gieng khoan cd phat hien diu quan trgng thdi gian gin diy, da md cac quan diem tim kiem tham dd mdi, gia tang trir lugng diu khi, tao su quan tam ciia cac nha diu tu: Phat hien kbi tai gieng Ddng Quan D-IX, viing triing Ha Ndi, phai hien diu tai gieng Rdng Tre -IX Id 11-2 phat bien dau tai GK 16-1-TGT-lX Id 16-1 va 15Nghien ciru Phit then ben virng, so (23) - Thing 6/2009 Pham Manh Ha - Hien trang va giai phap phat then nganh cdng nghiep dau 1-SN-lX Id 15-1,15-R, 103-BAL-lX, gia tang trir lugng 30-40 trieu tan quy diu/nam Vdi tiem nang birc tranh diu Viet Nam cang trd nen rd net Muc tieu gia tang trir lugng diu kbi nhieu nam trd lai day lien tue dugc hoin vdi miirc tir 30 - 40 trieu tin diu Khai thac Dau - Khi Mdt nam sau lap, 25/7/1976, nganh diu khf da phit bien ngudn thien nhien diu tien tai gieng khoan sd 61 d viing Triing Sdng Hong Nam nam sau, Bieu 2: San lugng 1986 1994 1985 1996 1997 1993 1999 2000 2001 thing nam 1981, ddng cdng nghiep d md kbi Tien Hai da dugc khai thac de dua vao phuc vu sin xuit Ngiy 26/6/1986, Xi nghiep Lien doanh dau Viet - Xd da khai thac tan diu dau tien tir md Bach Hd, ghi mdt mdc da'u quan trgng - Viet Nam da cd ten danh sach eic nude khai thac va xuat khau diu thd tren the gidi, khing dinh mdt trien vgng hua hen cho nganh cdng nghiep diu khf dat nude Ke tir dd, sin lugng khai tbic dau khf Viet Nam tang len khdng ngirng khai thac Dau - Khi 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 K4 hoach 20O9 • Khai thac Dau D Khai thac Khi Cac du in tim kiem tham dd va khai thac diu khi, cd dac thii riii ro cao, cdng nghe hien dai, vdn dau tu Idn Vi viy, xu the hdi nhap, boat ddng hgp tic qud'c te phai chii ddng va sang tao de dip irng yeu ciu thu hiit dau tu nude ngoii vao Viet Nam Trong thdi gian qua Tip doan diu Viet Nam da cdng viec keu ggi diu tu nude ngoii, diy manh chuyen giao cdng nghe va dao tao va xiirng dang dugc Nha nude Viet Nam giao phd viec kie'm soat, quin ly va phat trien nganh cdng nghiep diu khf Hien nay, cd khoang 39 cdng ty dau khf nude ngoai, den tir 34 qudc gia dang hoat ddng tai VN, khudn khd 27 du an khac nhau, vdi tdng diu tu hon ty USD Viet Nam dung hang thu khu vuc ASEAN ve trir lugng diu kbi vi dirng thir ve khdi lugng khai thac bang nam Nhim dam bao an ninh nang lugng cho dai nude, ben canh vice md rdng boat ddng Nghien ciru Phat then ben vifng s6 (23) - Thing 6/2009 tham dd khai thac d nude Tap doan dau Vict Nam da ti'ch cue trien khai diu tu tim kiem tham dd, khai tbic diu khf d nude ngoii Hien tai, Tap doan da va dang trien khai tbinh cdng boat ddng tim kiem, tham dd (Id 433a va 416b), Iraq, Mdng Cd Budc diu mang lai nhung tbinh cdng ding khich le nhu viec khai thac diu tir md Cendoz (Ld PM-304 Malayxia), phat hien mdi cac md dau d Ld SK-305 (Malayxia) hay d Angieri va Iraq Ld diu khf diu tien tai md Cendor - Id PM304 tai Malaysia - da mang ve cho Viet Nam nhirng ddng ngoai te diu tien khai thac dugc tir nude ngoai 'Trong tuong lai khdng xa, tiem nang to Idn tir cac md "vang den" eiia Viet Nam d ngoai nude, dugc ky vgng se ddng gdp die lire vao sin lugng khai thac diu ciia Tip doan diu Qudc gia Trong thdi gian tdi Tap doan diu Viet Nam tich cue nghien ciiru, danh gii tim kiem cac co hdi diu tu tai mdt sd khu vuc cd tiem nang d chau Phi, Nam My, Pham Manh Ha - Hien trang va giai phap phat then nganh cdng nghiep dau Trung Ddng Ddng Nam a va cac nude thugc Lien Xd cu, Tim kiem tham dd dau khf d nude ngoai, nhat la cac cdng ty xuyen qud'c gia se tao nhirng cii hich quan trgng thiic day kinh te - xa hdi Viet Nam phat trien thap ky tdi Viet Nam hien cd md diu dang boat ddng khai tbic sin xuat chiing loai diu thd cd thdng sd khac nhau: Bach Hd Rdng Dai Hung, Ruby, Rang Ddng Bunga Kekwa/ Cai Nude vi Su Tir Den Nhin chung ca loai diu thd deu thugc loai chit lugng cao dat mii'e gia cao hon diu thd ehuin Brent tren thi trudng the' gidi Bang 2: San lugng khai thac a cac mo 2.1 Khai thac vd tieu thu dau Dem VI: t.000 Idn 1998 Ten m o Bach H o SL 8.95 2000 i 2005 2002 % SL % 85,5 10.178 80.7 SL 11.596 % 76.2 SL 11.900 % 74 R6ng 506 4.0 528 3,8 320 2.5 360 3.5 2,4 600 304 5.0 3.0 512 Dai Hung 420 2.7 PM3 250 2.5 290 2.3 330 2.2 390 2.5 Ruby - - 560 4.5 1.054 6.9 1.240 7.88 Rang Dong - - 750 1.346 8.8 1.450 9,12 Su Tir Den Tong 10.016 100 12.610 100 15.214 i 100 16.000 100 Ngudn: Tap doan dau Viet Nam Cudi thing nam 2009 nha may Igc diu sd Nam tuong duong vdi sin lugng khai thac Xuat Dung Quit da cbfnh tbiirc dugc van hanh vdi dir khiu dau thd ciia diu khf Viet Nam chii yeu kie'n nhap dau thd tir tap doan BP.Tinh den thdi dugc thuc hien xuai khiu true tiep, tu tham gia diem khdi lugng xuai khau dau thd ciia Vict dam phan ky ket vi thuc hien hgp ddng Bieu 3: \uat khau, doanh tliu va nop njjan sach nha nuoc (Trieu tan) 1995 280 05('^9^'""''°"9' T 300 m - • 280 21 X • • 260 ^l^-V^ - - 240 220 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 I iXiiat khau Dau 2001 2002 •Doanh thu 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 K^ hogch 2009 Nop ngan sach nha nu'dc Ngudn: 'lap doan dau \ iet Nam Neu nam 1997 chiing la xuat khau 9.7 tang hon 68% doanh thu so vdi nam 1998 trieu tin va dat doanh thu 18,5 ti ddng; Trong sudt 10 nam dac biet la giai doan nim 1998 xuai khau gin 12 trieu tan dau 2000 -2005 sin lugng khai thac va xuat va doanh ihu hon 19.000 ti ddng (tang khiu dau thd ciia Viet Nam da lien tue 22% sin lugng xuai khiu, va 2% doanh tang trudng trung binh khoang 11%/nam thu) thi nam 1999 Vict Nam xuat khau Nam 2004 nhu da de cap gia diu thd 14.8 trieu tan (lang hon 25% so vdi nam lang kha cao nen doanh thu xuii khiu dat 1998) va doanh thu dai htm 32 ty ddng han 114 ti ddng Nhirng nam tiep theo EH Nghien ciru Phai tnen ben virng so (23) • Thing 6/2009 Pham Manh Ha - Hien trang va giai phap phat then nganh cdng nghiep dau sin lugng xuit khiu cd giam di trdng tha'y (nam 2005 giam gin 6% so vdi 2004; nam 2006 giim 5% so vdi 2005), nhung doanh thu xuit khiu lai tang dot bien, tang 34% eiia nam 2005 va