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TINH HINH HAN HAN VA CAC BIEN PHAP PHONG CHONG, GIAM NHE THIET HAI DO HAN HAN GAY RA TS NGUYfiN DINH NTNH'''' Tdm tdt Han han la mot loai thien tai phd bien cd xu the ngay cang tang Nhung nam qua, nhieu[.]
TINH HINH HAN HAN VA CAC BIEN PHAP PHONG CHONG, GIAM NHE THIET HAI DO HAN HAN GAY RA TS NGUYfiN DINH NTNH' Tdm tdt: Han han la mot loai thien tai phd bien cd xu the cang tang Nhung nam qua, nhieu giai phap cdng trinh va phi cdng trinh dugc thuc thi, nhd dd da giam nhe dugc thiet hai ban gay Trudc yeu cau phat trien ciia kinh te, xa hdi va mdi trudng, can cd nhung giai phap co ban mang tinh dot pha de ban che ban ban, dap u'ng yeu cau phat trie'n ben vung cua dai nude Tinh hinh han han d Viet Nam Viet Nam chiu anh hudng manh cua dia hinh va giao luu giua hai he thdng gid mua ddng bac va tay nam, vay lugng mua hang nam phan bd khdng deu theo khdng gian va thdi gian, mua tap trung nhieu vao mua mua (chiem 75-80% lugng mua ca nam), cdn vao mua khd lugng mua rai nhd Dia hinh Viet Nam chi phdi rai manh tdi hau d cac vung Do mua phan bd khdng deu nen ddng chay cung phan bd khdng deu giua cac mua, cac vOng va giua cac nam Viet Nam gan nhu nam nao cOng cd han ban xay khdng d vOng thi vung khac Trong 44 nam tir I960 den 2004 cd 32 nam cd han (chiem 73%), dd bj ban nang vu ddng xuan (9 nam), vu mua (11 nam), vu he thu (12 nam) Tdng hgp mot sd nam bj han dien hinh 2.1 Han hdn nam 1993 Han xay d Bac Bd va Trung Bd lugng mua nam bi thieu hut tir 30-40%, mua khd lugng mua thap hon trung binh nhieu nam 40-60%, cd noi khdng mua Ddng chay tren cac sdng sudi bi can kiet, nhieu hd chiia hei nude (Quang Binh 140 hd, Quang Tri 50 hd, Quang Ngai 40 hd, man vao sau 30km ) Thiet hai: Dien tich lua ddng xuan bi han 176.643ha, dd bi chei 22.590 ha; vu he thu d cac tinh tir Thanh Hoa den Binh Thuan bi ban 108.393ha, dd bi chei 24.093 2.2 Han hdn nam 1998 2.2.1 D(/t han ti'feud'i nam 1997 den thdng 4-1998: - Nguyen nhan: mua nam 1997 kei thuc sdm thang; lugng mua thang dau nam ehi Cue Thuy Igi - B6 Nong nghiep va Phat \nin nong thon 29 dat 30-70% trung binh nhieu nam, cd noi 2-3 thang khdng ed mua; nhieu dgt ndng ndng keo dai; muc nude tren eac sdng sudi xudng thap; nhieu hd chiia vira va nhd hei nude (Nghe An 579 hd, Quang Binh 110 hd hei nude ); man xam nhap sau, man cao va keo dai - Thiet hai: Ndng nghiep: Lua ddng xuan ban 253.988 ha, dd mat trang 30.739 ha; Lua he thu han 359.821 ha, dd mat trdng 68.590 ha; Liia miia han 153.072 ha, dd mat trdng 22.689 ha; Cay cdng nghiep va cay an qua ban 236.413 ha, dd bi chei 50.917 Lam nghiep: Rung bi chay d nhieu noi 3,1 trieu ngudi thieu nude sinh boat Gia tri thiet hai khoang 5.000 ty ddng 2.2.2 Dgt han ti( thdng den thdng 8-1998: Han vu he thu d Trung Bd va Tay Nguyen Liia he thu: Dien tich bi mat trdng ban: Mien Trung: 36.815 Liia mua: Dien tich bi mat trdng ban: Tay Nguyen: 2.278 ha; mien Trung: 13.557 Rau mau bi mat trdng: Tay Nguyen 400 ha; mien Trung 16.504 Cay cdng nghiep, cay an qua bi mat trdng: mien Trung 20.094 2.3 Han hdn nam 1999 * Dgt han tit eud'i ndm 1998 den thdng 4-1999: Han vu ddng xuan d Bdc Bd va ddng bang sdng Cim Long: Liia: Dien tich lua bi ban (ban nang): Bdc Bd: 86.140 (17.077 ha) Ddng bang sdng Cim Long: 4.420 (0 ha) Rau mau va cay trdng khac bi thiet hai: Bdc Bd: 1.0930 2.4 Han hdn ndm 2002 2.4.1 Dgl han tifeuoi thdng den thdng 4-2002: Han vu ddng xuan d Tay Nguyen, Nam Trung Bd, Ddng Nam Bd va ddng bang sdng Ciru Long: Liia: Dien tich bi thieu nude va ban: - Tay Nguyen: 14.380 (ban nang 6.767 ha); Nam Trung Bg: 6.774 (han nang 1.648 ha); Ddng Nam Bd : 4.493 (ban nang 1.071 ha) - Ddng bdng sdng Cim Long: 50.492 (han nang 13.685 ha) (vu xuan he bi han 19.766 ha, ban nang 4.152 ha) Rau mau bi thieu nude va ban 24.307 (ban nang 4.456 ha) Cay cdng nghiep, cay an qua bi thieu nude va ban 165.846 (ban nang 36.323 ha) Gia tri thiet hai khoang 1.330 ty ddng 2.4.2 Dot han tie giua thdng den ddu thdng 8-2002: Han vu he thu Tay Nguyen va mien Trung: 30 Liia he thu: Dien tich bi mai trdng han: Tay Nguyen: 6.200 ha; mien Trung: 17.390 Liia mua: Dien tich bi mat trdng ban: Tay Nguyen: 4.460 ha; mien Trung: 9.160 Rau mau bj mat trdng: Tay Nguyen 28.210 ha; mien Trung 18.090 Cay cdng nghiep, cay an qua bi mat trdng: Tay Nguyen 1.360 ha; mien Trung 22.370 Gia tri thiet hai khoang 730 ty ddng 2.5 Han hdn ndm 2003 * Dgt han tit thdng den cudi thdng 8-2003- Han vu he thu d Bdc Trung Bd: - Dien tich liia bi han cao nhai la 22.350 dd dien tich mat trdng cudi vu la 8.980 - Rau mau -i- cay trdng khac thiet hai la 5.070 2.6 Han hdn ndm 2004 2.6.1 Dc/t hgn tir cudi thdng den thdng 4-2004: Han ban vu ddng xuan d Bdc Bd: - Muc nude sdng Hdng tai Ha Ndi xudng thap vdng 40 nam Cac hd ehua muc nude thap ban nhieu so vdi thiei ke - Ngudn nude thieu, cac dia phuang phai tap trung huy ddng mgi ngudn lire de ehdng han 2.6.2 Dgt hgn lit thdng den thdng 11-2004: Han han vu mOa, vu thu ddng d Tay Nguyen, Nam Trung Bd, Ddng Nam Bd va ddng bdng sdng Cuu Long Tdng dien tich bi han la 273.392 ha, dd mai trdng 142.539 ha: -h Lua bi han 106.688 mai trdng 40.686 -(- Ngd bi ban 80.607 ha, mai trdng 53.218 -I- Rau dau bi han 45.423 ha, mai trdng 31.156 -I- Bdng bi han 13.688 mai trang 9.462 2.7 Hgn hdn ndm 2005 * \ u ddng xudn 2004-2005 Mua mua nam 2004 kei thuc sdm hon binh thudng tir den thang, tdng lugng mua 10 thang dau nam thieu hut so vdi trung binh nhieu nam khoang 30%, cac thang mua mua thieu hut tu 20-40% Tir thang 11-2004 den dau thang 3-2005 hau nhu ca nude khdng ed mua, rieng cac tinh Bdc Bd va Bdc Trung Bd cd mua anh hudng cua den dgt khdng lanh nhung lugng mua cOng khdng Idn, phd bien dat tir 20-60mm, cac tinh Nam Trung Bd va Tay Nguyen khdng cd mua trdi lien tuc ndng ndng lugng bdc hoi Idn Do dau vu ngudn nude bi thieu hut nhieu thdi gian dai khdng cd mua lugng sinh thuy kem, ddng thdi phai tudi nude cho cay trdng dung cho sinh hoat cdng nghiep dan den 31 ddng chay va lugng tru' tren cac sdng sudi va hd chiia deu bi suy giam va can kiet Tir cudi thang 2-2005 den dau thang 3-2005, thieu nude va han han da va dang dien rat gay gdt tai eac tinh Nam Trung Bd vd Tay Nguyen, neu tiep tuc khdng cd mua va cdn ndng ndng keo dai, thi han han cd kha nang se md rdng nhanh va miic ban se cang nghiem trgng ban Theo thdng ke ehua day dii (tinh den dau thang 3-2005) anh hudng va thiet hai han gay ddi vdi cac tinh Nam Trung Bd (Khanh Hoa - Binh Thuan) va Tay Nguyen nhu sau: - Sd ngudi bi thieu nude sinh boat: 1.118.651 ngudi (264.922 hg) - Sd ngudi bi thieu ddi: 524.450 ngudi (112.288 hd) - Khdng dam bao dii nude cho cac nha may dudng san xuai, che bien - Dan gia siic khdng cd thiic an va nude de udng (tinh Ninh Thuan cd tren 200.000 con, tinh Binh Thuan cd gan 90.000 eon, tinh Gia Lai ed tren 83.300 con) - 42.000 liia va cay trdng khac phai bd hoang khdng can ddi dugc ngudn nude de san xuat (trong sd dien tich chi cd mot sd it dugc chuyen doi sang trdng cay khac): Khanh Hoa 3.500 ha; Ninh Thuan tren 10.000 ha; Binh Thuan tren 16.600 ha; Ddk Ldk tren 7.600 ha; Ddk Ndng 1.070 ha; Gia Lai tren 2.100 va Kon Turn 1.200 - Dien tich cac loai cay trdng bi thieu nude va han la 171.986 ha, dd han nang cd kha nang mat trdng la 34.335 - Ifde gid tri thiet hai khoang 1743 ty ddng (khdng ke cac chi phi, cdng siic cua ndng dan de chd'ng han) Mot sd nguyen nhan gay ban ban nhu'ng nam vira qua: - Bien ddng ciia thdi tiei hau phiie tap va cue doan - Phat trien cua kinh te, xa hdi va yeu cau cua mdi trudng din den nhu cau nude tang nhanh - Phat trien thuy Igi ehua theo kip nhu eau nude - Cdng tac quan ly khai thac cdng trinh thuy Igi cdn ban che - Cdng tac du bao, nhat la du bao dai ban, cdn khd khan Cac bien phap phdng ehdng da thirc hien 3.1 Cdc chu truang vd chinh sdch Idn - Luat Tai nguyen nude - Quy hoach va khai thac tong hgp luu vuc sdng - Chinh sach ve dau tu thuy Igi - Chinh sach ve khai thac cdng trinh thuy Igi - Phdng ehdng d nhilm, can kiet ngudn nude, tac hai nude gay 3.2 Cdc bien phdp cdng trinh thuy loi - Khai thac tdi da hieu qua cdng trinh da cd (khai thac tong hgp) - Tiep tuc dau tu mdi cac cdng trinh thuy Igi de dieu tiei ngudn nude - Thuc hien kien cd hoa kenh muong - Cdng nghe tudi tiei kiem nude 32 '' 3.3 Cdc bien phdp phi cong trinh - Sir ehi dao kjp thdi ciia Chinh phu - Su phdi hgp cua eac nganh va td ehu:e ehi dao ciia dia phuang - Bien phap giao due cdng ddng - Bien phap thdng tin, du bao - Bien phap ndng nghiep (gidng, mua vu, ky thuat ) - Cdng tac khdc phuc hau qua Mot sd giai phap co ban can dugc day manh 4.1 Tiep tuc xay dung eac hd chu:a khai thac tdng hgp de dieu tiei ddng chay mua mua, mua khd Day la giai phap hei sire co ban vi den tdng dung tich cua cac hd chira (ke ca hd thuy Igi va thuy dien) mdi dat 25 ty m\ so vdi ngudn nude phat sinh tren lanh thd Viet Nam, chung ta mdi ed kha nang tru dugc 8% Vdi muc binh quan ve ngudn nude hien khoang 4500 mVngudi/nam, ty le rat thap can nhanh ehdng dua len 15-20% Khi xay dung cac hd chiia vua va Idn d cac tinh cd lugng mua thay ddi hang nam vdi miic chenh lech Idn nhu Tay Nguyen, Nam Trung Bd can tinh toan phuang an hd dieu tiei nhieu nam khdng chi tinh toan dieu tiei giua eac mua nam nhu tir trudc den vdn lam 4.2 Nang mure dam bao cua eac he thdng cdng trinh thuy ndng, cdng trinh cap nude Cac cdng trinh tudi, cap nude cua chung ta dugc xay dung may chuc nam qua hau hei dugc tinh toan vdi mire dam bao vdi tan suat 75% Hien nay, yeu cau phat trien san xuat va dieu kien kinh te xa hdi dai nude ta dugc nang len, ddi hdi muc dam bao phai dugc nang cao hon theo su phat trie'n Tan suat dam bao cap nude sinh boat phai la 100%, nude cdng nghiep va dich vu 90%, nude ndng nghiep phai tu 85-90% 4.3 Quan ly va nang che phii cac khu rung phdng hd, rung dau ngudn Trudc nam 1945 tdng dien tich rung nude ta vao khoang 14,3 trieu ha, che phu dat 43%, phan bd tuong ddi deu tren ca nude Tuy nhien, nhieu nguyen nhan khach quan va chii quan nhu chay rung, chien tranh, phat trie'n kei cau tang, pha rirng, khai thac md nen ty le che phii den nam 1995 ehi cdn 28,2%, giam trieu va phan Idn rirng cdn lai la rirng ngheo De gdp phan dieu tiei ddng chay, bao ve ngudn nude cac cdng trinh thuy Igi can bao ve va phat trien rung dau ngudn, rirng phdng hd vdi viec quan ly va bao ve chat che vd'n rirng cdn lai, tiep tuc trdng mdi trieu rung, nang che phii ciia rirng den nam 2010 dat 43% (hien mdi dat 36%) 4.3 Kiem sodt viec xd, thdi nude dgc hai vdo cdc ngudn nude Trudc tien can cd dieu tra danh gia mot each khoa hge ve tinh hinh d nhidm ngudn nude ciia cac khu cdng nghiep lang nghe va cac khu dan cu tap trung Tir dd ed phan loai va ed giai phap bude di phu hgp Cac lang nghe can ed quy hoach de xay dung cac khu san xuat tach khdi eac khu dan cu Nhai la nhung nghe cd nhieu chat dgc hai phe thai, chai thai rdn va nude thai Xay dung thi diem he thdng kiem soat va xir ly nude thai ddi vdi mot sd loai hinh lang nghe de xac dinh tieu chuan chung de' phd bien cho cac lang nghe Thuc hien viec kiem soat chai lugng nude thai vao cac ngudn nude theo dung Luat tai nguyen nude 33 4.5 Van hanh hieu qua cdc he thdng thuy lai De nang cao hieu qua can tap trung vao nhung giai phap sau: - Dam bao cac cdng trinh dau mdi an toan lam viec dii cdng suat thiet ke Chuang trinh an toan hd chiia nude trudc hei tap trung cho cac hd ed dung tich tren 10 trieu m^ va chieu cao dap tren 15 m la nhdm muc tieu dd He thdng thuy Igi Dau Tieng, Am Chiia trudc day chi dugc tich nude thap ban muc nude dang binh thudng, sau dugc sira ehua da dam bao tich nude dung thiei ke nhd dd nang lire dugc nang len - Tiep tuc thuc hien ehuong trinh kien ed hoa kenh muong vdi tdng chieu dai la 26.617 km Bao dam dii cao muc nude tren eac cap kenh, tang dien tich dugc tudi tu chay, rut ngdn thdi gian tudi nude nen cdng tac quan ly nude tren he thdng chii ddng ban; chi phi sira ehua, tu sira thudng xuyen giam tren 60% so vdi kenh dai trudc day - Td chiic tdt cdng tac quan ly va phan phdi nude tren toan he thdng thuy Igi Tirng bude dua he thdng dieu hanh hien dai de nang cao chai lugng quan ly va phan phdi nude tren he thdng thuy Igi Thuc hien cdng nghe tudi tiei kiem nude trudc hei d eac vung khan hiem ngudn nude nhu Nam Trung Bd va Tay Nguyen 4.6 Ndng cao chat lugng cong tdc du bdo tugng thuy vdn, nhat Id du bdo ddi han Ddi vdi ban ban, viec du bao dai han cd y nghla rat quan trgng Khi dd cd the kip thdi dieu chinh san xuai nhu giam dien tich gieo trdng, thay ddi co cau mua vu, thay ddi ca cau cay trdng, dieu chinh ke hoach cap nude, tru nude mot each chu ddng va kip thdi Neu chiing ta du bao trudc dugc thang hoae nam mot each chinh xac thi thiet hai ban ban se dugc giam nhe kha nhieu Phuong trinh hdi quy du bao Sa.I la mot phuang trinh du bao han ban dai ban rat ed trie'n vgng d Viet Nam can dugc nghien ciiu hoan thien va ap dung, giiip cho cdng tac du bao dai ban Ciing vdi cdng tac du bao la van de chia se thdng tin cung cdn dugc nghien cuu va quy che' hoa 4.7 Ndng cao nhdn thdc vd siftham gia cua cong ddng Dieu Phap lenh khai thac va bao ve cdng trinh thuy Igi quy dinh: "Nha nude ed chinh sach khuyen khich va bao ve quyen Igi hgp phap ciia td chuc, ea nhan nude, ngoai nude dau tu vd'n, nghien ciru khoa hgc, ap dung tien bd khoa hgc cdng nghe vao viec xay dung bo sung, tu bd khai thac va bao ve cdng trinh thuy Igi" nude ta, mot vai nam gan day mot sd dia phuong da lam thi diem viec chuyen giao cho ndng dan quan ly cdng trinh thuy Igi pham vi thdn, xa Nhung dia phuang lam cd kei qua tdt nhu Tuyen Quang, Lao Cai, Thanh Hoa, Nghe An thuc chai la cac dia phuang td ehiie lai cdng tac thuy Igi co sd thay the cac td, ddi thuy ndng ciia eac hgp tac xa ndng nghiep trudc day nhung noi cd dieu kien thuan Igi (Thanh Hoa, Nghe An) da chuyen giao de ndng dan tu quan ca cdng trinh lien xa Bd Ndng nghiep va Phat trien ndng thdn da cd Thdng tu sd 75/2004/TT-BNN 20-122004 hudng ddn viec lap, ciing cd va phat trien td chiic hgp tac xa diing nude Day la co sd phap ly quan tigng eae dia phuong can sdm trien khai thuc hien 34 Ket luan Theo danh gia ciia ehuong trinh hanh ddng giam nhe thien tai cua Viet Nam thi han han la thien tai gay ton thai nghiem trgng thu' sau bao va 10 Tuy khdng true tiep gay thiet hai ve ngudi nhung thiet hai ve kinh te, xa hdi va mdi trudng cung hei siic phirc tap Theo thdng ke chua day dii, rieng thiet hai ve kinh te' cua dgt ban ban nam 1998 tren pham vi ca nude khoang 5000 ty ddng Nhung thiet hai ban ban khdng ehi anh hudng tuc thdi ma cdn keo dai anh hudng den nhieu vu hoae nhieu nam sau De giam nhe thiet hai ban ban gay ra, Viet Nam da thuc thi cac giai phap cdng trinh phi cdng trinh, cac giai phap ve chinh sach, td chiic, the che' va xa hdi Nhd nhung giai phap kha ddng bd va quyei liet nen thiet hai nhieu dgt ban ban da dugc giam thieu, sdm dn dinh san xuai va ddi sdng nhan dan, ban che' nhung anh hudng xau den mdi trudng Tuy nhien, nhung thay ddi vdi tdc nhanh ve kinh te, xa hdi va mdi trudng nhung thach thiic trudc ban ban cang gdt Trudc hei Id su cue doan ciia hau Mac du tdng lugng mua nam chi thay ddi khdng dang ke, nhung su phan bd theo khdng gian va thdi gian lai thay ddi va phu thude vao nhung bien ddi ciia mdi trudng Se cd nhirng noi mua nhieu ban noi khac lai mua it hon Mua khd se dai han mua mua ngdn lai va tap trung vao nhung tran mua eudng Idn ban Nhu vay, 10 lut va ban han deu cd nguy co cao ban De dam bao phat trien ben vung, nude cho mdi trudng cang dugc quan tam Ngudn nude dugc khai thac den ngudng nao de dam bao ddng chay sinh thai ca mua khd va mOa 10 Cung vdi bao ve sd lugng thi chai lugng nude cOng dang bi de doa nghiem trgng bdi nude thai cdng nghiep, dd thi, sir dung boa chai bao ve thuc vat, phan hoa hgc cua du lugng khang sinh, boa chai tbire an ehan nudi thuy san Summary Drought is a popular disaster type having an increasing trend Last years, many structural and non-structural measures were implemented that mitigate losses caused by the drought To meet the economic-social and environmental growth requirements, it is necessary to have new basic measures to limit the drought, meet the sustainable development requirements of the country 35 ... va Tay Nguyen 4.6 Ndng cao chat lugng cong tdc du bdo tugng thuy vdn, nhat Id du bdo ddi han Ddi vdi ban ban, viec du bao dai han cd y nghla rat quan trgng Khi dd cd the kip thdi dieu chinh san... 4.152 ha) Rau mau bi thieu nude va ban 24.307 (ban nang 4.456 ha) Cay cdng nghiep, cay an qua bi thieu nude va ban 165.846 (ban nang 36.323 ha) Gia tri thiet hai khoang 1.330 ty ddng 2.4.2 Dot han... trdng 40.686 -(- Ngd bi ban 80.607 ha, mai trdng 53.218 -I- Rau dau bi han 45.423 ha, mai trdng 31.156 -I- Bdng bi han 13.688 mai trang 9.462 2.7 Hgn hdn ndm 2005 * \ u ddng xudn 2004-2005 Mua