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Tiiu ban Cdc Khoa hoc vi Trdi ddt ISBN 978 604 913 016 LU QUET O VIET NAM HIEN TRANG VA THANH T l / U 20 NAM NGHIEN ClTU SWEEPING FLOOD IN VIETNAM ACTUAL STATE AND 20 YEARS OF RESEARCH ACHIEVEMENT Tra[.]
Tiiu ban: Cdc Khoa hoc vi Trdi ddt ISBN: 978-604-913-016- LU Q U E T O VIET NAM: HIEN T R A N G V A T H A N H T l / U 20 N A M NGHIEN ClTU S W E E P I N G FLOOD IN VIETNAM: A C T U A L S T A T E A N D 20 Y E A R S OF RESEARCH A C H I E V E M E N T Tran Van Tu Vien Dja chit Ngd 84 dudng Chiia Ling, Hi Ndi Email: tranvantu92(^yahoo.com.vn Tdm tat: Dd 20 ndm ki tir trdn Id quit xdy tgi Lai Chdu (6-1990), cdc nhd qudn ly, cdc phuang tiin thdng tin dgi chung, cdc nhd khoa hgc mai thue su tiip can vd hiiu mdt phdn vi hiin tugng thiin tai ndy Tir dd nhd nuac cung gianh nhiiu kinh phi di cdc nhd chuyin mdn tiin hdnh diiu tra khdo sdt vd nghien cuu lu quit Tuy nhiin cdng tir cd nhiiu quan diem vi djnh nghia vd phdn logi lii quit Cdc nhd qudn ly vd thdng tin dgi chimg cung dugc tiip can vdi nhiiu quan diim Thue ra, trin thi giai ciing cd nhiiu tin ggi vai ciing mot logi hinh thiin tai lii quit (Sweeping flood, Flash flood Debris flow, Mudflow) Dd Id cdch gidn tiip phdn logi Id quit Bdi bdo ndy tdng kit hiin trgng lu quit bdng cdch niu vd ddnh gid mdt sd trdn lii quit diin hinh, tdng quan vi thdnh tuu nghiin cim 20 ndm qua nhdm giiip cdc nhd qudn ly, cdc thdng tin dgi chung vd nhdn ddn phdn biit rd vd quan tdm ddy du din logi hinh thiin tai ndy Abstract: Since 20 years from sweeping flood happened in Lai Chau (6-1990), the managers, the mass media, scientists have already been approached and partially understood the phenomenon of natural disasters Since then, many state funds have been being spent to sur\'ey and to research sweeping floods However, from these studies, there are many opinions on the definition and classification of sweeping flood Managers and mass media also have access to many these opinions In fact, right in the world have different names for the same type of sweeping flood disasters (Sweeping flood, flash flood, debris flow, Mudflow) Maybe, it is indirectly classified this natural disasters This paper summarized the current status of typical sweeping flood, an overview of research achievements in 20 years in Vietnam to help managers, the mass media and the people clearly distinct and full attention to this type of disaster MO DAU Lii quet la mdt loai hinh thien tai khde liet da vi dang xiy ngiy eing gia ting d cic vimg ddi nui cua nude ta Ben canh nhirng thiet hai ldn ve ngudi va kinh te mi lii quet giy thi sir buy hoai mdi trudng sdng rit ldn Tren linh thd nude ta, nhieu trin lii quet vi lii biin di ldn xiy lim thiet hai rat ldn den kinh te - xi hgi va mdi trudng ci viing Vi du nhu d Phong Thi (xay nhilu nim), TX Lai Chiu (1990), TX Son La (1991), TX Dien Bien Phu (1975, 1994, 1996), Mudng Lay (1996), Nam Culi (Sin H I , Lai Chiu, 2000), Lio Cai (1971, 2002), Sa Pa (2000), Yen Bai (2005), v.v 192 Hgi nghi Khoa hgc k\- niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cong nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ngi JO 20JO Loai hinh thien tai niy duge eic nha khoa hgc va quin ly nude ta ghi nhin tir sau trin lii quet xiy nim 1990 tai Lai Chiu Lu xiy vdi bien rit ldn (din 27m) vi van tdc ddng chiy ldn da cudn trdi rit nhilu co quan xi nghiep vi nha din, lim chet hing trim ngudi Nam 1991, trin lii quet tai Son La, xiy vio ban dem tie hang dudi deo Khau Pha thugc luu vue sdng Nam Na, lim chit tren 30 ngudi vi thiet hai rit nhilu tii sin Sau chimg ta ghi nhin dugc loai hinh thien tai niy, thi lien tilp eic nim vl sau lii quet dugc thdng bao thudng xuyen tren eic phuong tien thdng tin dai chiing vi dugc tln^ ket tai Ban chi buy chdng lut bao Trung uong vi cae tinh, huyen Theo bio cio hing nim hiu bet eac cic tinh mien nui deu cd lu quet vi thiet hai rit ldn mac dii ta di bilu bilt ddi dilu ve nd Die biet trin lii lii quet, biin di xiy tai Mudng Lay (1996), trin lu quet tai Yen bai (2005) li mot ndi kinh hoing cua nhin din dja phuong vi ci nude Vet tieh edn lai sau nhiing trin lii biin di vi lii quet niy vugt xa tri tudng tugng eiia nhieu nha khoa hgc, eac nhi quin ly vi nhin dan ci nude Qua 20 nam dieu tra khio sit va nghien cim, cic nhi nghien cim thudc Vien Khoa hgc vi Cdng nghe Viet Nam eho ring eic loai hinh lii quet xay d Viet Nam ciing tuong tu noi niy noi khie tren the gidi Cin thiet phai phin biet diu li lii quet, diu li lii binh thudng Die biet thdi gian gin diy, nhieu nhi quin ly sg thdng tin dai chiing ndi ve lii quet, da coi nhieu trin lii quet li lii binh thudng lam cho giim bdt sir quan tim eiia du luin vi dd giy them ve thiet hai, nhit li khiu cim hd Bii bio niy tdng ket hien trang lii quet vi tdng quan thinh tuu nghien cim nude nhim cho cic nhi quin ly vi thdng tin dai chiing phin biet rd vi quan tim diy du den loai hinh thien tai niy I HIEN TRANG LU QUET Trin lii quet tai Lai Chiu 27/6/1990 tin phi thj xa Lai Chau, nhieu ngudi cho ring bit ngudn tir vd ddng tren sudi Nam He ket hgp lu ldn tren sdng Di Mua keo dii, nude sdng sudi chay manh di lim Id mdt phin ldn qui ddi phia dudi ban Hudi Siy eii vio sing ngiy 27/6/1990 Bin Hudi Siy cii cich huyen ly Mudng Lay vi thi xi Lai Chiu khoing 20 km ve phia Tiy Dit da trugt Id chin ngang ddng Nam He di lim nude sudi ir lai, ding eao din Trong khoing - gid mue nude phia tren dip tam ning eao len tdi gin ndc nha sin bin Hudi Siy Khi dip bj vd, nude eiing vdi dit di tao nen sdng lii ddn ve Lai Chiu, tham gia quet toin bd phin thip cua thi xa Nhin din d vung chju lii (thi xa Lai Chiu) thi bj thiet hai rat ning 96 ngudi chet, hing trim eo sd, nhi cira bj cudn trdi Tuy nhien ddng lii vd dap tam d Nam He chi lim gia ting da ed sin lii quet ddng tren sdng Da Tran lii quet xiy tai thi xa Son La tren sudi Nam La 27/7/1991 da lam thiet hai rit ldn ve ngudi vi eua Nude sudi Nam La tir trudc den deu chiy sdng Di qua hang ngim dudi deo Khau Pha bing nhilu cira, song ehii yeu li qua eic hang Ni Mudng, Phieng Hay vi Bin Sing Day li tran lii lich sir (nim 1975 cd trin lii ldn gin tuong tu) tren sudi Nam La Trin mua vio dem 26.7 vi ngiy 27.7 di giy trin lii quet vio 5-6 h vi 8-9 h sing ngiy 27.7, [13] Theo thing ke ed 91 nhi bj trdi, nhi sip 61 eii, nha bi ngap vi hu hdng ning 362 eii, ngudi bi chit vi cudn trdi mit tich 16, ngirdi bj thuong ning li 13 Hoa miu vi cie sin phim khie cua ndng nghiep bj thiet hai ning, ciu treo bj trdi eii, nhieu eau be tdng, dip ding nude, phai rg thep bj phi hdng Khi hang ngam bj tic, nude d luu ding cao (theo vet lii tai hang Bin Sing miic ngap tren 10 m so vdi dudng giao thdng Vio cae nim sau (1992, 1993, 1996) khu vuc niy vin bj lii quet mac dii hang da dugc thdng Tran lii quet xiy d xdm Quan Ciy 21/10/1969 Luu vue sudi Quin Cay thudc xi Phiie Thuan huyen Phd Yen, Thii Nguyen Gdm hai nhinh, tdng cdng luu vuc cd dien tich din cira li km2 Do ddc ldng sudi li 1.9% Luu vuc nim d phia ddng sudn Tam Dao, cd die dja hinh Idn, vao khoing xap xi 250 Cira cd viing bing phing thich hgp cho sinh 193 Tiiu ban: Cdc Khoa hoc vi Trdi ddt ISBN: 978-604-913-016-8 sdng va trdng trgt song chju lii cjuet thudng xuyen Gin phia cira cd noi ddng nen khd tieu thoat ddng chiy lii Chieu 20/10 lie die cd mua rio nhe Khoing nira dem trdi mua to vi rit to xiy thdi gian khoing Ih 45', thdi gian dinh lii khoing 15-20' Theo dieu tra thi muc nude ding eao d cira la 3.6-4 m, luu lugng udc dat 200-250 m3/s, van tdc dat 57 m/s Thiet hai ehinh bao gdm 26 hgc sinh co dien chet, 22 gian nha bj trdi ciing toin bd tu trang ciia hgc sinh va giio vien; 20 miu lua vi 10 miu hoa miu bj mat tring Lii quet tai Lio Cai 19/8/1971 xiy rit ldn Lii bit diu len vio 13 h ngiy 19/8, d^t dinh vio 19h va nit xuing chin lii vio 24 h Diy cd the eoi nhu tran lii quet vdi cudng suit ldn, toe nude ding 1.37 m/h, van tic ddng chiy V=3.5 m/s, bien lii dat 12.85 m Lii len da lim ngap nhilu noi thugc thj xi Lao Cai, lim cudn trdi nhieu nhi cira ven sdng, phi buy nhieu edng trinh cdng cdng nhu cdt dien eao the, trudng bge, tram bom, biin eit lip diy nhieu noi nhit li dong rudng Die biet lii da phi mdt dudng di mdi phia bd trii lim thiet hai rit nhilu eho khu vue ed ddng lii di qua Du tinh thiet hai dgt lii quet len tdi hing tram ty ddng Lii quet tren sudi Nam Cudng di xiy nhieu lan the ky hai muoi Sudi Nam Cudng bit ngudn tir xa Quing Bach, huyen Chg Ddn chiy hd Ba Be qua hang karst Chieu dai sudi 27 km, luu vuc noi rdng nhit li 16 km, mat sudi 1.3 km/km2, dien tieh luu vuc 159 km2, ddc binh quin luu vue 34%, ddc ldng sudi 1.2%, ldp phu thue vit len tdi 90%, Ngiy 26/5/1981 ed mua rio ldn khoing b (tir 21-22h), lugng mua tai Ddng Lie tdi 309.3 mm, mua rai gin deu tren toin luu vue Tir luc xiy mua ldn den hinh thinh dinh lii khoing 3-4 h, nude lii len rit nhanh, nhieu ngudi chay khdng kjp da bj trdi Khoing h sing 27 lii di nit khdi dudng nhua Theo dieu tra khdi phuc dinh lii thi luu lugng khoing 390 m3/s, chieu cao ngap tai bin ling len tdi 6-7 m Lii da lim ngudi chet, ngudi bj thuong, nhieu nhi bj trdi va hoa miu bj phi hdng Tran lii quet ljeh sii xiy d thj xa Lang Son vio ngiy 23/7/1986 Triing Lang Son-Ldc Binh duge hinh thinh hoat ddng karst va dirt giy siu Cao Bing-Tien Yen Diy li khu vuc nam triing An Chiu, nen cd die trung hiu dja phuong rd net Lugng mua vio loai thip nhat nude ta (1200-1400 mm/nim) Theo dinh gia ehung cua nhieu tie gii tai khu vuc lii quet phat trien khdng manh, [2], song thue te lai khie Trong ljeh sir da xiy trin lii quet vao thing 7/1914, chi kem trin lii quet ngiy 23/7/1986 mdt chut it Mua tip trung vao hai ngiy 22-23/7 Lii tren sdng Ky Ciing len vdi cudng suit rit ldn: 1.6 m/h Thj xa Lang Son cd noi ngip siu nhit la 5.5 m, noi nhd nhit li 2.2 m Lii len ban dem, cudng suit ldn, vay thiet hai rit ldn, ngudi chet 26, bj thuong 6; 8250 nha bj hu hdng dd 1558 nhi bj hdng hoan toan; gin 8000 liia vi hoa ma bi thiet hai ning; triu bd chit 21 con; 19 ciu bj hdng dd eiu Ky Lira bj sip; tdng thiet hai len tdi 117 ty dong Lu bim di d Mudng Lay xiy ngiy 23/7/1994 Dien biin thdi tilt xiy lu biin da eiing khdng ed gi die biet Cd hai dgt mua, dgt mdt tir ngiy tdi - vdi tdng lugng mua 461,4 mm vdi eic dinh cao 94,1 mm/ngay va 84,9mm/ngiy Dgt II tir ngiy tdi 31/7 vdi ting lugng mua 702,7mm vdi dinh mua eao nhit vio 21/7 (242,5 mm/ngiy tai Lai Chau) Tai diy vao dem 22/7 rang sing 23/7 ddng biin di d sudi Hudi Ld di bit ngd ip vio khu co quan dan cu huyen ly phi vd 18 ngdi nhi, 11 ngudi chit, 20 ngudi bj thuong Cung tai khu vue niy vao 8/1996 cd trin lii bun da thir hai lim 55 ngudi chet, 400 gia dinh phii di ddi Tran lii quet, lii bim da xay d Nam Cdng xa Nam Culi, huyen Sin Hd ngiy 4/10/2000 Day li vimg eiu tao ehii ylu tir h? ting Yen Chiu Do die dia hinh ldn (25-35°), dja hinh phan eit manh Khu vuc da cd diu vet hoat ddng manh cua qui trinh Proluvi, nghia li cd nhiing trin lii biin di ldn Ijch sir Ddng nude ed van tdc ldn keo theo nhieu ting cudi kit tir tren cao dd xudng vdi nang lugng ldn da giy nhieu thiet hai ve ngudi vi cua Theo bao cao thi cd 39 ngudi chet, 17 ngudi bi thuong, thiet hai ve tai sin len tdi ty ddng 194 Hgi nghi Khoa hgc hi' niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cong nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ngi JO 2010 Trin lu quet xiy tai Son Duong tren sdng Phd Day ngiy vi 4/7/2001 Dem va ngiy 4/7/2001 khu vue Son Duong cd mua rit ldn vdi lugng mua 200-300 mm/6h h sing ngiy 4/7/2001, nude ding len rit ldn tai thj trin Son Duong Dudng giao thdng khu vuc vi tir noi khie den bj ngap vi ich tie hoin toin Cic phuong tien tiu, thuyen eiing boat ddng khdng hieu qui nude cd van tie rit ldn va nhilu ciy Idn cudn theo ddng Thiet bj hiiu tuyen bj hdng va vd Uiyen eiing khdng hoat ddng duge mua ldn vi sim chdp Mai gid sing mdi lien lac duge vd tuyin vl tinh Sau nude tren cac sudi nhd nit thi nude sdng Ld lai len rit nhanh vi dat cue dai vio 20 h ngiy 5/7 Thiet hai ve ngirdi va tii sin rit ldn 11 ngudi chet, 18.463 nhi bj ngap trdi vi phi hdng, nhieu cdng trinh giao thdng, thuy lgi bj phi vd vi hu hai ning Diy li trin lii quet ldn nhit kl tir nim 1909 den 2001 Tai Trung Bd bao gdm Bie va Nam Trung Bd, sdng ngin vi dde, ddng bing ven bien hep Lii d diy thue chit li lii quet sudn vi hon hgp Tuy nhien boat ddng dja chit, di sau vio dit lien ed nhieu triing ldn nhu Huong Khe, Huong Son, Tin Ky, Ba Ldng, v.v Tai cie khu vuc niy lii quet xiy rit ldn vi chu ky nhd Lii quet xiy tai Huong Khe nam 2007 rit ldn, lim chet 15 ngudi va lam ngap dudng tiu nhieu Diy li viing triing giira niii vio loai ldn nhit Trung bd Nd dugc hinh thinh sut liin kien tao vdi sir boat ddng ciia dirt gay theo hudng i kinh tuyen vi edng irng ciia cic diit gay theo phuong ddng tiy Hoat dgng sut liin khdng ddng deu di gay dja hinh bj eit xe dir ddi va dde dja hinh ldn Hoat ddng Tin kien tao manh me vdi sir cd mat eiia cic he ting Neogen vi De tir Ngay be mat dja hinh ddng bing Huong Khe eiing khdng ddng deu, eao thay ddi tir vii ba met den 20-30 m Cau tao, thinh phin vit chat va ngudn gdc de tii ciing thay ddi manh theo khdng gian Triing Huong Khe dugc bdi dip bdi be thdng sdng Ngin Siu, vdi eic nhinh sdng Tiem, sdng Ngan Truoi, va sdng No Diy li khu vuc cd lugng mua nim ldn d nude ta, vio khoing 2400-3300 mm/nam, lugng mua ldn nhit 555 mm Tren he thdng sdng ed nhieu doan bj thit, giy ddng Die biet tren sdng Ngin Siu ed doan thit dai km, ngudi ta ggi li khue Hdi Nai Lii quet xiy hang nim, die biet ed nhieu nim rit ldn gay ngap dudng tiu thdng nhit d eao trinh 15 (Diy li cao trinh dudng sit) nhu eac nim 1960 (16.64 m), 1978 (15.80 m), 1996 (15.42 m) Cudng suit lu cung rit ldn, ldn nhit li 150 cm/h Tren luu vue sdng Gianh, lii quet xay d cinh ddng karst dien hinh d Quy Dat huyen Minh Hoi Diy la cinh ddng karst rdng ldn, la ket qui hoat ddng karst eiia khdi di vdi Ke Bing Hang karst di hudng sdng Gianh Khu vuc huyen Minh Hoi edn nhieu cinh ddng karst tuong tu nhu Quy Dat Nim 1993 mua ldn mi eic pheu Karst bj lip mdt phin nen nude thoit chim Lii len nhanh, ngap dudng 582 tir Tuyen Hoi di Minh Hoi 3-5 m, lii ngim 3-5 Theo nhin din, ed nim lii ngap ngiy Tai ngi ba sdng Gianh va sdng Rao Trd (S Due Cii), nim 1985 va 1992 lii ngap eao hon bie thim din m Tai thdn Lac Hoi ed lii quet tren sdng Rio Trd cudng suit ldn, ngap eao Nam 1985 chit ngudi, nim 1992 chet ngudi Ciing nhiing nim niy tai xa Ngu Hoa thugng ngudn sdng Rio Trd lii quet xiy rit ldn lim thiet hai ldn ve tii sin va ngudi Nim 1993 lii lich sir tren sdng Gianh, muc nude tai Ddng Tim li 18.39 eao hon mirc nam 1970 li 0.43 m Tren sdng Gianh cd nhieu khue sdng bj ddng, die biet chd thit tai xa Thanh Hoi, Thuin Hoi, Thach Hoi vi Dire Hoi Cic khu vuc niy da giy lii quet ddng lim thiet hai ldn ngudi vi tii sin Rieng tran lii thing 10 nim 1993 di lim 13 ngudi chet, 3500 nha bj sip va trdi Nim 2007 lii quet xay tren sdng Gianh rit ldn, lam chet ngudi va mit tich ngudi Tir Ky Anh trd vio, cic bii eit ven bien rit eao li mdt eic nguyen nhan gay lii quet mac dii muc nude bien thip Dudng QL I vi cic kenh ven niii cung la nguyen nhin lim gia tang lii quet 195 Tiiu ban: Cdc Khoa hgc vi Trdi ddt ISBN: 978-604-913-016-8 Nam Trung Bd lii quet xiy ciing vdi chu ky nhd vi khde liet khdng kem Bic Trung Bd Thing 10/1964 trin lii quet xay d sdng Ly Ly dd vao sdng Thu Bdn lim thiet hai rit Idn xi thudc Quing Nam, Di ning Thing 10/1993 lii quet xiy tren sdng Di Ring thudc TX Phii yen Lii da lim thiet hai ldn, 27 ngudi chet, ve kinh te, mit khoing 50 ty ddng Ciing thdi gian niy lii quet xiy d sdng Ci Ty (Phan Thiet) lim chet ngudi, trdi 1431 cin nha, 197 ldp hgc vi nhilu hoa mau khie Die biet tai Khinh Hda, hon 300 hinh khich thoit chet gang tic lii quet Khu vue Tiy Nguyen, lii quet xiy it hon song hien mat xuit hien eing ngiy eing ldn Thing 8/2002, cie huyen Ea Sup, Lik, Krdng No, Krdng Bdng vi Dik Lip, tinh Dik Lik xay lii quet tie ddng chiy: ngudi chet sat Id dit tai xa Quing Tin, huyen Dik Lip, 450 m kenh muong, 3.250 liia vi hoa miu, 1.046 nha bj ngap Tai Lim Ddng, Theo phin ban ehi dao phdng chdng lut bio mien Nam, den 15h ngiy 17/8/2002, mua lii di giy thiet hai ldn ddi vdi sin xuit din sinh d tinh Lim Ddng va Ddng Nai Cd bd ddi bj lii cudn chet, 14 nhi sip, 17 phdng bge ngap, hu hdng 6.500 hd din bj ngap, Lim Ddng li 5.360 hd Dien tich liia, hoa miu, ciy in trii, ciy cdng nghiep ngap ung li 9.150 ha, dd Lim Ddng li 8.300 Dudng giao thdng lien huyen, ndng thdn ngap, hu hdng hon 70 km, trdi 14 ciu, dap tam bj vd Thing 8/2003 lii quet d Dik Lik lim ngudi chet Mua ldn cic ngiy 2-4/8/2003 da giy lii quet d hai huyen Cu M'ga vi Budn Ddn Lugng mua d Cu M'ga len den 342 mm, lim ngap hing trim cin nhi, sip hai ciu Ea H'Din vi Ea Khiet Giao thdng tir trung tim huyen ve xa Ea H'Dinh bj chia cit; dip thuy lgi Ea H'Dinh hu hdng hoin toin, hon 1.000 bap lai va cie loai diu dang vio vu thu hoach ciing bj lii cudn trdi Thiet hai ban diu trin lii giy d Cu M'ga len den tren 12 ty ddng O huyen Budn Ddn, lii quet ciing xiy d hai xa Ea Ba vi Ea Wei Nim 2007, lii quet eiing da xiy rit ldn huyen Cu Mgar, Die Lie, ed 11 ngudi, ngudi edn mit tich Lii lim ngap hon 20.100 ciy trdng, hoa miu, khien 3.105 hd din phii di ddi, 1.051 nhi bj sip hoac roi xi, dd tudng Cd nhieu trudng bge hu hdng Die biet, cac xa thude huyen Easup deu lut vi xi la Tloi bj eit dirt hoan toin lien lac vdi ben ngoii Ciing thdi gian niy lii quet xay d Lim Ddng, cd ngudi thiet mang II THANH Tiru NGHIEN ClTU QUA 20 NAM Ngay sau lu quet xiy d Lai Chiu, Tdng cue tugng thuy vin vao euge vdi dk tai cap nha nude "Nghien cim nguyen nhin hinh thinh vi eic bien phip phdng trinh lii quet" ed PGS TS Cao Ding Du lim chu nhiem vi di bio cio tdng kit nim 1995 D I tii di ting quan duge tjnh hinh nghien cim lu quet tren thi gidi, dilu tra hien trang lii quet ei nude tap trung ehu yeu mien nui va trung du d miln Bie, miln Trung va Tiy Nguyen D I tii da sii dung phuong phip phin tich nhin tl dl lap bin dl du bio lii quet tren linh thi ei nude ty le 1:500.000 Sir thinh edng eua de tai li nhan dien eic trin lii quet da xiy trude vi sau nim 1990 Phuong phip phin tich nhin tl td ed hieu lire dl dinh gii vi phin viing lu quet song chi diing vdi mot vai loai hinh lu quet Mot sl trin lu quet xiy dilu kien dja hinh die biet, khdng tuin thu theo cic ylu tl phan tieh da chua dugc kl din Mat khie dd dua vao yeu td xuit hien lu quet nen hoi go bd vi chu quan D I tii eiing budc diu dua cic giii phip canh bio, du bao vi phdng chdng lu quet Cho din sau niy viit sich nhan dk "Lii quet, nguyen nhan va bien phap phdng chdng" nxb Ndng nghiep phit hinh nim 2003, cl PGS.TS Cao Ding Du ciing dua djnh nghia chung ve lii quet, neu hien trang, nguyen nhan hinh vi phit trien, cae bien phip phdng chdng va giim nhe thiet hai ciia lii quet Thanh cdng nhit cic kit qui nghien cim ciia cl PGS.TS Cao Ding Du li dua dugc phuong 196 Hgi nghi Khoa hgc ky' niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cong nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ngi J0 20JO phip phan tieh nhin tl hinh thinh vi phit triln lii quet vi mdt so dd du bio cic trin mua ldn ciia khu vuc mien nui phia Bic vi miln Trung ket hgp eic kilu thdi tiet d nude ta, [2, 3] Nim 1996 vi 1997 TSKH Vu Cao Minh (Vien Dja chit) chu tri dl tii dilu tra co bin: "Dieu tra dinh gii hien tugng trugt Id-lii biin di d Lai chiu vi de xuit bien phip phdng chdng" sau xiy tran lii biin di d TT Mudng Lay D I tii tip trung vio ba loai hinh thien tai trugt Id, lii biin di va lii quet Cie ket qui de tii dat duge li hien trang thien tai xiy tren dja bin tinh Lai Chiu, phin tich nguyen nhan hinh vi phit triln thien tai Tic gii di sii dung phuong phip phin tieh hinh thii de lip so dd du bao trugt Id, lii quet, lii biin di ty le 1:500.000 Diy li de tii tdng hgp ve tai bien nen chua phin tich siu ve lii quet, [25] Cho den nam 2002 de tii cip nha nude mi TS Trin Trgng Hue lim ehii nhiem "Nghien cim dinh gii tdng hgp cie loai hinh tai bien dja chit tren linh thd Viet Nam vi cie giii phip phdng trinh (Giai doan II: phin mien nui Bac Bg), dd ed de tii nhinh ve lii quet, TSKH Vii Cao Minh da phin lii quet loai: Lii quet sudn, lii quet ddng tu nhien, lii quet ddng dot bien, lii quet vd ddng tu nhien, lii quet vd ddng nhin tao, lii biin di, lii quet hdn hgp, [16] Tren co sd dd Tic gii da phin vimg lii quet, lii biin di ty le 1:500.000 vi de cic giii phip phdng chdng, giim nhe thiet hai vdi timg loai hinh lii quet Thinh edng nhit eiia TSKH Vii Cao Minh li thinh lip duge so dd du bio lii biin di ty le 1:500.000 mien mii phia bic tren co sd phan tich hinh thii cua cie yeu td anh hudng Nam 1996, Cue Phdng chdng lut bao vi quin ly de dieu, Vien Dja chit vi Tdng cue Khi tugng Thiiy vin di td ehire hgi thio diu tien mang ten "Chuyen de lii quet eac tinh mien nui phia Bie" Sau dd nim 1997 td ehire hdi nghj tuong tu d Tiy Nguyen Tai hdi nghj Cue PCLB & QLDD di bio cio tinh hinh lii quet ci nude vi nhin dien 31 trin lii quet eho den thdi diem dd Ding chii y la nhieu bao cao cae tinh da ed dieu tra rat tdt cic trin lii quet trudc nam 1990, [15] Sau dd nim nio Cue PCLB & QLDD eiing td ehire hdi thio hoac ndi bd nganh hoac md rdng cho cac co quan nghien eiiu ve thien tai dd ed lii quet Nam 1998, TS Tran Van Tu (Vien Dja chit) di tien hanh de tii: "Nghien cim co sd khoa hgc ciia sir hinh va phit trien lii lut mien niii (trong dd ed lii quet) de xuit eac giii phap canh bao, du bio va giam nhe eudn^ thien tai eiing cac thiet hai" cip Trung tim KHTN & CNQG Vi sau dd la de tai nhinh ve lii quet de tii "Nghien cim dinh gii tdng hgp cie loai hinh tai bien dia chit tren lanh thd Viet Nam vi eic giai phip phdng trinh (Giai doan I: phin bic Tnmg Bd, nim 1999-2000)" Qua phin tieh va nhin dang eic trin lii quet d mien Bie va bac Trung Bd, Tie gia da phin lii quet thinh loai hinh: Lii quet ddng, lii quet sudn va lii quet hdn hgp Tir dd da lip duge so dd du bao eic loai hinh lii quet tren mdt so dd tdng thi 1:500.000 Sau niy nim 2008, Tie gii da ip dung lap so dd phin vimg va du bao lii quet eho cac huyen miln mii tinh Quang Ninh Qua trin lii quet vio thing 8/2008 tai Quing Ninh, cae nha quin ly va ehuyen mdn tinh Quing Ninh da dinh gia cao so dd du bao nay, [17-24] Ngoai ra, lii quet edn duge nghien cim cie de tii tai bien thien nhien vi dugc lap bin dk> phan vimg du bio Cd the ke eic cdng trinh cua GS Nguven Trgng Yem (Vien Dja chit) lap ban dh phin vimg tai bien thien nhien ei nude, ve lii quet - iu bim da van el PGS, TS Cao Ding Du phu trach, [12] Cic de tai mang tinh khu vue ciia eic nhi nghien cuu Vien Dja ly, Cie nha khoa bge thudc Dai hgc Khoa hgc Tu nhien, [10, 11] ve phdng chdng vi giim nhe thiet hai thien tai dd cd lii quet eiing dugc tien hanh (Tic ket qua nghien cim niy chii ylu mang tinh iing dung mi khdng di siu vio phan tich bin chit ve phan loai lii quet Dang ehii y du in phin viing lii quet cua Tdng cue Khi higng Thuy vin mi TS La Thanh Ha lim ehii nhiem mdi nghiem thu d hdi ddng co sd giai doan I khu vue miln mii phia Bic Du in da lip bin phin viirig lii quet eho nhieu tinh trgng diem vdi ty le 1:50.000 vi ty le ldn hon cho nhilu luu vuc dien hinh, [8], Ngay tir thdi ed PGS, TS Cao Ding Du, Ting cue 197 ISBN: 978-604-913-016-8 Tun ban: Cdc Khoa hgc ve Trdi ddt Khi tugng Thiiy vin da diu tu kinh phi nhip eic thiet bj hoan ehinh de thu thip tii lieu ve tugng tren luu vuc va thdng sd thiiy vin d cira Trong de tii eua minh TS Li Thanh Ha eiing trang bj nhieu thiet bi tuong tu cho khu vue nghien cuu Tuy nhien hieu qui va td chuc nghien cuu mdi dugc dinh gii budc diu III MOT SO NHAN XET Thir nhdt, djnh nghia va phan loai lii quet hien khdng nhiing li thdi su vdi nude ma ci tren thi gidi Mdt djnh nghia van ehung ehung nhu nhieu tic gii d Viet Nam da neu: "Lw quit Id mot logi hinh lii miin mii cd cudmg sudt, van tdc ddng chdy vd biin muc nuac rdt lan Id lin nhanh vd xudng nhanh, ddng nuac cd lugng Idm bim rdc", [2-3] Djnh nghTa lii quet tren tbi gidi eiing ehung ehung nhu vay: ""A flash flood is a flood that rises and falls quite rapidly with little or no advance warning, usually the result of intense rainfall over a relatively small area", [4] Thue diy mdi ehi la dinh nghia cho lii quet xiy tren sudn die [18] theo diing nghia "flash flood" Thue tl d Viet Nam nhieu trin lii quet khdng xiy vdi y nghia tuong Ur mi dimg vdi timg loai nhu "Sweeping flood Debris flow hay Mudflow" Trong trang Wikipedia, ngudi ta ciing djnh nghia lii quet nhu sau: "A flash flood is a rapid flooding of geomorphie low-lying areas - washes, rivers, dry lakes and basins It may be caused by heavy rain associated with a storm, hurricane, or tropical storm or meltwater from iee or snow flowing over icesheets or snowfields Flash floods ean also occur after the collapse of an ice dam, debris dam or a human structure, such as a dam, for example, the Johnstown Flood of 1889 Flash floods are distinguished from a regular flood by a timescale less than six hours The temporary availability of water is often utilised by plants with rapid germination and short growth cycle, and by specially adapted animal life" Diy la mdt djnh nghia khdng nhirng bao him tit ei eac dang lii quet di xiy mi edn neu ei eic nguyen nhan gay ngudn nude Dinh nghTa niy mac du diy du song qui dai vi phiic tap, khdng di true tiep vao nhan - qua - dien bien eua hien tugng Nhu vay viec dinh nghTa lii quet ehung ehung nhu tren ed the tam eoi li hgp ly Tuy nhien lii quet xay vdi nhieu loai hinh khie vi vdi bin chit hinh va phit trien hoan toan khie Nhu viy viee phan loai lii quet li rat can thiet de ed the lap dugc bin dd phan vimg vi du bao Tren the gidi chua ed edng trinh nao phan loai lii quet song viee ggi eic ten khae la mdt hinh thirc phan loai Ve sir hinh va phat trien lii quet dugc neu tdm tit so dd sau: Tie ddng eiia tu nhien (Hoat ddng dja ehat, kien tao, tugng) Tac ddng eiia nhan sinh (Khai thie luu vuc, xiy dung edng trinh) T Mat dem (Vd phong hda-thd nhudng, dja hinh, mang sdng sudi, tham thue vit) Ngudn nude (Tuyet tan, hd chira nude tu nhien vi nhin tao, mua rio) Lii quet Hinh I Md hinh su hinh thdnh vdphdt triin IU quit 198 Hoi nghi K/nja hoc AT niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cong ngh^ VietNam - Hd Ngi lO 2010 Tren md hinh tren ed td hgp, tl hgp li ddng lire bao gdm tic ddng cua tu nhien vi nhin sinh inh hudng den ei ngudn nude vi mat dem, td hgp hai bao gdm tuong quan giiia mat dem vi ngudn nude li tip khd xic djnh Nd the hien nguyen nhin hinh thinh vi phit trien lii quet To hgp li he qui, dd li dien bien eua lii quet Viee djnh nghTa vi phan loai lii quet ehi chu yeu tip trung vio hai to hgp sau li hgp ly Viec phin loai lii quet d Viet Nam mdi xuat hien cic tdng ket cua TSKH Vii Cao Minh vi TS Trin Vin Tu thudc Vien Dja chit TS Trin Van Tu mdt loat bii bio ding tren cic tap chi Cic Khoa hgc ve Trii dit, Ndng nghiep vi Phit trien Ndng thdn va cic de tii nghien cuu da phin loai lii quet thinh loai hinh ed bin chit hinh vi phat trien die trung, [17-24] day cd dua them loai hinh lii biin di, thue chit chi la dang die biet eiia lii quet sudn Lu quet dong li loai hinh lii xiy vdi cudng suit vi van tdc lii tuong ddi ldn, bien lii vdi siu ngap lut ldn vi mang theo rit nhieu vat chit khie (ric rudi, bim cat) Lii dugc hinh thinh tren thung liing sdng md rdng hoac triing giiia mii hoac eanh ddng Karst ddng nude lii bj tie (vdi nhieu nguyen nhin) sinh Cd the ke cic trin lii quet ddng xiy tai TP Dien Bien Phii (1996), TX Son La (1989), tren sudi Nam Cudng (Bie Can, 1981), TX Lang Son (1986), Huong Khe, Huong Son (Hi TTnh, 2002, 2007), nhieu tran lii quet xiy d Ddng Nam Bg vi Tay Nguyen Lii quet ddng li loai hinh phd bien d mien niii khdng nhirng d nude ta mi edn tren the gidi Chung duge hinh thinh tu nhien song eiing ed boat ddng nhin sinh kinh te Lii quet ddng xiy dudng QL8 qua Huong Son, hoac dudng QLl qua mien Trung, tran lii quet xiy d xa Cit Thinh (Yen Bai) nim 2005 lim dudng giao thdng li mdt vi du dien hinh eon ngudi tao Nim 2009 lii quet xiy d cic tinh Nam Trung Bd viee xi lii eic hd thuy dien ciing la mdt nguyen nhan eon ngudi giy LU quet swan la loai hinh lii vdi tdc ddng chiy rat Idn, len xudng nhanh mang theo nhieu vit chit cua sudn (Flash flood) Lii quet sudn xiy chu yeu tren sudn dde tai cie vung tap trung nude mat Diy la cic sudi cd nude thudng xuyen hoac khdng thudng xuyen cip I va II theo phan loai cua Horton, [9] Cd the ndi lii quet sudn cd the xiy bit ky noi nio d mien niii nude ta cd du dieu kien ve mua Cic trin lii quet sudn da xiy manh d Quing Ninh, Hoang Lien Son, Bie Trung Bd v.v., thudng nhirng noi cd dja hinh dde tuong ddi ldn ldn La quet hon hap li loai hinh lii xiy van tdc ddng chiy ldn, cudng suit lii rit ldn chieu siu ngap tuong ddi ldn Lii quet hdn hgp ed die trung trung gian eua lii quet ddng va lii quet sudn Diy li loai hinh lii quet xiy phd bien d mien mii vi thudng gay tin thit ldn ve ngudi va cua Cd the ke eic trin lii quet hdn hgp tai Quin Ciy (Thii Nguyen) nim 1969; trin lii quet d Nam Cudi nim 2000 la trin lii quet hdn hgp ket hgp vdi lii biin da; tran lii quet tai xi Trudng Son (Quing Binh) nim 1993, v.v Mdt die diem eo bin la lii quet hdn hgp xiy tren triing giiia niii kich thudc vira vi nhd hoac them tieh tu nim tren sdng ed ddc ldn Chii y ring hi lii quet hdn hgp d diy khie vdi lii quet hdn hgp mi nhieu nhi nghien cuu cho ring nd la hon hgp eua lii quet vi lii biin di Lu bitn dd (mudflow, debrisflow) la mdt loai hinh lii quet sudn die biet vdi ddng nude cd lugng vat chit dim die bim di va ddng ning ldn, [25] Hiu bet thiet hai chimg giy diu dit da va dip, viii lip, cudn trdi Lii bim di phit sinh tir thugng ngudn eic sudi nhd, hiu hit li phu luu bic I, II, noi dit di bj trugt Id manh vi tudn chay cae eua suli hgp luu vdi eac sdng sudi ldn hon Cd the ke nhirng tran lii bim di Idn di xay tai TT Mudng Lay (Lai Chau, 1996), Du Tiln (Hi Giang, 2004), v.v Theo phan loai truyen thing, chi mat dit da ddng nude ldn hon 60%, mdi ggi ia lii biin da 199 Tiiu ban: Cdc Khoa hoc vi Trdi ddt ISBN: 978-604-913-016-8 Thir hai, vin de lap bin dd phin viing lii quet Phin vung lii quet li mdt bien phip de du bio nhim giam nhe thiet hai Diy li mdt bin dd ehuyen nginh khie vdi cic bin dd da biet vi tinh ting hgp cac ylu td tic ddng cua nd Ke tir de tii cip nhi nude ed PGS TS Cao Ding Du lim chii nhiem, bit len hai cich, phuong phip phin tich hinh thii va phuong phip tich hgp eic ylu tl Phuong phip phin tieh hinh thai dugc nhieu nhi nghien cim ip dung vi da lap duge cic bin dd phin vimg lu quet, [12, 18, 25] Theo chiing tdi ehinh xie cua bin dd khdng phai viee su dung phuong phip nio, mi ehinh la hieu dung bin chit sir hinh va phit triln lu quet Chung ta khdng thi tieh hgp eic ylu td hinh thinh vi phit trien lu quet ddng vdi lii quet sudn dugc Nhu vay cin ket hgp ei hai phuong phip tren de lip ban dd phin vimg lii quet Nhu tren di neu, lii quet ddng vi hon hgp hinh thinh lien quan den yeu td ddng tren dgan sdng, cd nghia la mdt dilm hoac doan sdng boat dgng dja chit, kien tao giy len Nhu viy gilng nhu bin dl dja chit - khoing sin, lii quet ddng vi hdn hgp the hien nhu mdt dilm Dilm dd duge md ti rieng ve manh yeu vi ehu ky hinh thinh, thim ehi ed thi ea dien tieh inh hudng Trong [24] mieu ti cu the sir dinh gii niy Nhu viy djnh eic dilm lii quet ddng va hon hgp chi cd the su dung phuong phap phin tieh hinh thai, dd li sir phin tieh dja chit, kien tao, dja mao vi tugng thuy van Vdi lii quet sudn, viee phan viing ed the sir dung phuong phap phin tieh hinh thii hoac tich hgp cie ylu tl hinh Cd PGS TS Cao Ding Du sir dung cdng thire tieh hgp cie yeu td dl tinh toin Hien nhieu ngudi eiing dimg phuong phip niy ket hgp vdi cic chuong trinh chuyen dung dl tinh toin, Ur dd phan vimg lii quet TS Tran Vin Tu di diing phuong phap phin tich hinh thii de xie djnh cie diem gay lii quet ddng vi hdn hgp Sau dd sir dung edng thire kinh nghiem de tinh toin phan viing lii quet sudn Su dung edng thirc kinh nghiem eiing gidng nhu phuong phip phan tich tieh hgp cic yeu td song cic he sd dugc sir dung theo kinh nghiem, khdng phii thir din trgng sd cdng thiie tich hgp cie yeu td, [22] Thir ba, vin de lap mang ludi quan trie va thu thip cic sd lieu tugng, thuy vin luu vue, die biet cic luu vuc vira vi nhd Diy li mdt vin de rit khd, phii su dung tdng hgp cic phuong phip dac, thue nghiem vi tinh toin ly thuyet Tir nhirng nim cudi ciia the ky 20, UB sdng Me Cdng da sir dung cic chuong trinh tinh toin thuy vin dua vio sd lieu dac diu cua cic luu vuc de tinh ngugc xic djnh cie thdng sd luu vuc Tir dd sir dung cie thdng sd luu vue niy de du bio lii Day li bien phip hay vi duge bio cio rit tdt cua UB sdng Me Cdng Tuy nhien d Viet Nam dieu tuong tu chua duge ip dung Viee tinh toin lii quet, thdng sd dja hinh tuong ddi chuin song yeu td khie nhu thim thue vit vi ldp dat be mat (ggi ehung la ning ting trir nude mat) chua dugc chuin hda Bin dd lugng mua ngiy tin suit 1%, 2% va 5% vdi ehinh xie chua eao mang ludi dae thua vi khdng lien tuc Thir tir, dd li mang ludi thdng tin, lien lac vi td chirc cim hd Diy li mdt nhugc diem rit ldn ve quin ly giim nhe thien tai eua eic cip ehinh quyen va chuyen mdn Lii quet thudng xiy d viing siu va xa, giao thdng va thdng tin rit kem nen viec theo ddi vi td ehue ciru hd gin nhu bing khdng Thim chi dieu niy edn xiy cie vimg lin can thj xi, thj tran mua to, he thdng thdng tin vd tuyen true trie vi hiru tuyen bi phi buy Nhieu noi bj cd lip hing ngiy thim ehi nhieu ngiy nhu d TX Son La (1991), TT Son Duong (2001) Vin de cinh bao va td ehire cim hd lii quet xay nim nio eiing duge Ban ehi dao Phdng chdng Lut bao va Quin ly De dieu luu y cic dia phuong, tham ehi edn td ehire dien tip song tinh trang van chua duge cii thien tinh bat thudng eua lii quet Tinh trang niy die biet quan trgng cho cic tinh Trung Bd Thir ndm, dd la eic giai phap phdng chdng va giim nhe thiet hai Hiu het cac edng trinh nghien cim eic cip deu dua eic giii phap cdng trinh vi phi edng trinh de giim nhe thiet hai 200 Hgi nghi Khoa hgc ky' niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cong nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ngi 102010 lu quet giy Tuy nhien de dua vio thue tl cdn mdt khoing cich rat xa Thinh edng nhat hien li nhin thire cua cie nhi quin ly vi thdng tin dai ehung ve lii quet Nhin thirc cua edng ddng eiing duge eii thien rd ret Song d eic vimg sau vi xa, nhin thirc cua bi din toe eiing edn ban ehi, nhit li vl cie trin lii quet ldn xiy hing nhieu ehue nim lin Theo nghien eiiu eua Tie gii, hiu hit eic vimg tip tmng kinh te - xi hdi d mien mii di timg xay lii quet Idn ljeh sir Quy dit dl hinh thinh mdt noi li tip trung kinh te - xa hgi d mien mii rat ban hep Nen bien phip sdng chung vdi lii quet li mdt thich thirc ldn cho hien vi tuong lai TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Avinash Tyagi, ''Forward integration of flash flood warnings" Regional Workshop on Community Preparedness and Public Participation in Flash Flood Management in Europe 29 -30 Poland October 2007, Krakow, Poland Cao Ding Du vi nnk, "Nghien cim nguyen nhin hinh thinh vi cic bien phip phdng trinh lii quet", De tai cip nhi nude 1990-1995, 1996 Cao Ding Du, Le Bie Huynh, 2003, "Lii quet, nguyen nhin vi bien phip phdng tranh", Tl, T2, Nxb Ndng nghiep, 2003 Committee to Assess NEXRAD, "Flash Flood Forecasting Capabilities at Sulphur Mountain", California, National Research Council, 2005, Flash Flood Forecasting Over Complex Terrain: With an Assessment of the Sulphur Mountain NEXRAD in Southern California Publisher: The National Academies Press Davis, R S, "Flash flood forecast and detection methods Severe Convective Storms" AMS Meteorological Monograph Series, 28 (50)/2001, 481-525 Georgakakos, K P, "Real-time flash flood prediction" Journal of Geophysical Research, 92/19^1, 9615-9629 Gruntfest E., and C J Huber, "Toward a comprehensive national assessment of flash flooding in the United States", Episodes, 14/1991, 26-35 La Thanh Hi va nnk, " Diiu tra, khdo sdt, phdn viing vd cdnh bdo khd ndng xudt hiin lii quit a miin nid Viet Nam Giai dogn I- Miin niu Bdc Bg ", De tii cip Bg Tii nguyen vi Mdi trudng, 2010 Me Cuen R.H, "Hydrologic Analysis and Design ", Prentice Hall, 1989 10 Nguyen Hiiu Khii Phdn tich, tinh todn vd xdy dung cdc gidi phdp phdng chdng lu quit a hru vuc sdng Dinh tinh Binh Thudn MS: QG 00-15, 2000 - 2001 11 Nguyen Quang My, Chu Dinh Chinh Buac ddu xdc djnh nhirng nguyin nhdn ca bdn gdy nin tai biin thiin nhiin vimg Tdy Bdc Tap ehi Khoa hgc DHQG Hi Ndi, tip 12, so 6, 1997, tr 32-38 12 Nguyen Trgng Yem vi nnk, "Nghiin cim xdy dung bdn phdn viing tai biin mdi tnrang tu nhiin lanh thd Viet Nam ", Di tdi cdp nhd nuac KC- 08-01, 2006 13 Nguyen Van Cu vi nnk, 1995 Nghien cim danh gii tii nguyen nude luu vuc suli Nam Na Trung tim Khoa hgc Tu nhien vi Cdng nghe Qude gia 14 NWS (National Weather Service), ""Automated Local Flood Warning Systems Handbook", Weather Service Hydrology Handbook No 2/1997, Washington, D.C.: U.S Government Printing Office 201 Tiiu ban: Cdc Khoa hgc vi Trdi ddt ISBN: 978-604-913-016-8 15 Tii lieu hdi thio chuyen de phdng trinh lii quet mien mii tai Dien Bien Phu 3/1996 vi tai Yen Bii 6/1998, tai Hi Giang 2002 16 Trin Trgng Hue vi nnk., ''Nghiin cim ddnh gid tdng hgp cdc logi hinh tai biin dja chdt trin lanh thd Viet Nam vd cdc gidi phdp phdng trdnh (Giai dogn II: phdn miin nui Bdc Bg) ", Bio cio ting kit giai doan II de tai dde lap cip Nha nude Vien Dja chit Hi Ndi 2003 17 Trin Vin Tu, "Co sd khoa hgc nghien ciiu lii quet ddng" Tap chi cie Khoa bge Trii dit, Noi, 1999,64-69 18 Trin Vin Tu vi nnk, "Nghiin cim ca sa khoa hgc ciia sir hinh thdnh vd phdt triin 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tinh, 2007-2009, Luu trii Vien Dja chat 25 Vii Cao Minh vi nnk, "Diiu tra ddnh gid hiin tugng tnrgt la-lii biin dd a Lai Chdu vd di xudt biin phdp phdng chdng", De tii dieu tra co bin cip nhi nude, 1986 vi De tai cimg ten cip Tinh, UBNN tinh Lai Chiu, 1998 26 Warner, T T., E A Brandes, J Z Sun, D N Yates, and C K Mueller, "Prediction of a flash flood in complex terrain Part I: a comparison of rainfall estimates from radar, and very short range rainfall simulations from a dynamic model and an automated algorithmic system", Journal of Applied Meteorology, 39/2000, 797-814 27 Yates, D N., T T Warner, G H Leavesley, "Prediction of a flash flood in complex terrain Part 11 A comparison of flood discharge simulations using rainfall input from radar, a dynamic model, and an automated algorithmic system", Journal of Applied Meteorology, 39/2000, S\5-S25 202 ... Viet Nam - Hd Ngi JO 201 0 Trin lu quet xiy tai Son Duong tren sdng Phd Day ngiy vi 4/7 /200 1 Dem va ngiy 4/7 /200 1 khu vue Son Duong cd mua rit ldn vdi lugng mua 200 -300 mm/6h h sing ngiy 4/7 /200 1,... vi nhin dan ci nude Qua 20 nam dieu tra khio sit va nghien cim, cic nhi nghien cim thudc Vien Khoa hgc vi Cdng nghe Viet Nam eho ring eic loai hinh lii quet xay d Viet Nam ciing tuong tu noi niy... (1996), TX Son La (1989), tren sudi Nam Cudng (Bie Can, 1981), TX Lang Son (1986), Huong Khe, Huong Son (Hi TTnh, 200 2, 200 7), nhieu tran lii quet xiy d Ddng Nam Bg vi Tay Nguyen Lii quet ddng