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NGHIEN CQU TRAO DOI LICH SU" BAO LU 60 NAM na coHc TAC Pf/diV6 CHONG sao lUl moNG iHdi Gm ldi NGUYEN NGOC TRAI Da bat dau vao mua mua bao, chiing ta can nhin nhan lai cac su kien bao lu lon 6" tinh Qu[.]
NGHIEN CQU - TRAO DOI LICH SU" BAO LU 60 NAM na coHc TAC Pf/diV6 CHONG lUl moNG iHdi Gm ldi NGUYEN NGOC TRAI Da bat dau vao mua mua bao, chiing ta can nhin nhan lai cac su kien bao lu lon 6" tinh Quang Binh qua sau muoi nam, tir nit nhirng van de dac biet quan tam de co su chu dong phong chong lut bao nhirng nam toi, nhSm han chi thip nhat thiet hai ve nguoi va tai san cua nha nudc ciing nhu cua nhan dan I Diem qua nhirng tran bao lut lich su / Tran lu thdng 10 ndm 1950 Tran lut vao thang 10/1950 la motti-anIff khffng khilp nhat tff xua den nay, gay hau qua het sffe nghiem Dien hinh vffng Da Mpt, Ben Tiem lu quet len nhanh chi hong vai gia dong ho toan viing da bj chim hong bien nuac Thiet hai chung toan tinh rat nang ne Mffa mat 70%, Iffa chiem bj thoi, ma bj hong; luc sffe (trau, bo, lgn, ga, vjt) chet 1.000 Nha effa b j hu hong nang, bj troi; thiet hai ve nguai la 137 (chff yeu vffng Da Mot effa xa Truang Son) Tai hgi nghj Sa ket Lien khu 4, Uy ban khang ehien hanh chinh Lien khu da de nhung bien phap vo effng cap bach nham cffu hg cho quan dan vffng bj lu Trong do, Lien khu da chi vien cho cac tinh Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thffa Thien 4.550 tan luong thuc, 1.000 trau bo; moi can bo vao cong tac cac tinh hen phai mang theo them kg gao va kg hat giong Trung uong da cffu trg dot xuit eho huyen Le Thuy trieu dong, huyen Quang Ninh trieu dong, huyen Bo Trach 1,5 trieu ddng, huyen Quang Trach 1,5 trieu dong, huyen Tuyen Hoa 1,5 trieu dong Com bdo lut ndm 1983 Day la bao ljeh sff doi vai tinh Binh Trj Thien Can bao so 10 vai sffe gio manh cap 11, cap 12 keo dai lien tuc gia dong ho (tff 11 gia den 17 gia 26/10/1983), kem theo mua to va rat to tff Dong Ha den Quang Trach Lugng mua a khu vuc song Gianh la 450mm, dinh lu tai Mai Hoa 7,68m, hen bao dong 3: 1,66m; gio manh lam dang nuac bien vffng effa song Nhat Le len 2,5m; song Gianh len 2,8m; nen da tan pha bet sue nang ne cac huyen phia Bac tinh, nhat la tff Bac huyen Le Ninh den Dong Hai, Bo Trach, Quang Trach Tiep den bat dau tff gio 29 din gia 01/11 mua du doi suot dem khap cac vffng toan tinh, tai Tuyen Hoa 600mm va Le Ninh 500mm Cuong suat lu len rat nhanh, vffng thugng luu cac song tff 0,7 den 2m/gia Dinh Iff tren cac song deu vugt bao dgng Trong diem Iff la cac huyen phia Nam effa tinh Binh Trj Thien den huyen Le Ninh Day la mgt dot thien tai don dap va thiet hai nang nhit chua tffng thay hang chuc nam Dac biet la chffng ta chua kjp khac phuc bao lon thi laptiicphai doi vai han lu lon khip ca tmh, vao dffng Iffc Iffa vu mai thu hoach xong; Iffa vu 10, khoai lang, sin sip din ky thu hoach, vii dong xuan bat dau trien khai Do vay, thiet hai bao s6 10 gay rit lon LTac tinh c6 TH6NG TIN ^ KHOA HQC - C O N G NGHg - QB S6_4 2010 NGHIEN CCfU - TRAO DOI phia Bac tinh tff Quang Trach den huyen Ben Hai; gio cap 9, cap 10 giat cap 11 Gio cap 8, cap da keo dai lien tuc 12-13 gia.Day la bao CO thai gian keo dai nhat Vao trua Ola Quang Dong - Quang Trach gio cap 10 giat cap 11; a Le Ninh toi va sang 02/10 gio cap giat cap Bao so ket hgp vai gio mffa Dong Bac manh da gay mua to den rat to va dac biet to a cac huyen phia Bac va vffng giffa effa tinh Day la tran mua lan nhat tir truac den nhat la a thj xa Dong Hai, huyen Bo Trach, Le Ninh Mua hong 36 gia, lugng mua len den tren dual 1.000mm bang gan nffa lugng mua binh quan nam Rieng a Le Ninh, gia (tff gia den 16 gia sang) 02/10 mua tren 250mm, moi gia mua len den 83,3mm Do mua qua lon nen xay Iff lut nang, nuac len nhanh gay bat nga a huyen Bo Trach, thj xa Dong Hai Cac vffng cao a thj han Hoan Lao - Bo Trach, Con effa thj xa Dong Hai tff truac den chua bao gia bj Iff thi da bj ngap Cac huyen nhu Quang Trach, H$u qua cua bao lut Tuyen Hoa, Ben Hai deu chiu anh Ninh CO 11 xa, Tuyen Hoa xa, Quang Trach 15 huong effa Iff lut xa va Bo Trach xa Bao so da lam chet va mat tich 59 nguai, Tong so nguai chet 252 nguai, 44.770 nha bj ngap, 1.191 nha bj sap, bj cu6n vffng bao 15 nguai (cac huyen phia Bic tinh), troi Co 13.640ha Iffa vu va 9.774ha Iffa vu 10 vffng lut 237 nguai He thing thuy lgi vai cac h i b j ngap, 3.525ha hoa man b j do, b j ngap chffa, dap dang deu giff dugc, nhung toan bg he Dac biet, he thong thuy lgi bj hong nang, thong thuy nong, de ngan man, kenh muong diu nhat la a cac huyen B Trach, thj xa D6ng Hai, bj sat la khoang 160.000m' dit, 50.000m' da, anh huang lon den san xuat nong nghiep Trong 800m'bet6ng nang nhat la he thong cac tuyen de ngan man, Thiet hai den san xuat nong nghiep kha lon cac he thong kenh muong effa cac huyen B6 Tong so luong thuc thiet hai khoang 10 van tin/ Trach, Quang Trach, Le Ninh Khoi lugng dit 47yantannam 1983 da, be tong bj troi, satla la 725.572m' Con bdo so ndm 1985 Corn bdo so ngdy 16/10/1985 Chieu toi 01/10/1985, bao so di vao Con bao so da dl bo vao tinh Binh Tri 30% nha effa hi sap dl, hu hong nang Rieng Dong Hai, B6 Trach nha effa bj sap va hu hong nang tren 50%; 90% nha bj tie mai, he thing dien, dien thoai, kho tang, truang hgc, benh vien, mffa mang va cay coi bj tan pha rat nang ne vffng Iff, khoang 70% tong so xa effa cac huyen tff Phff Loc den cac huyen phia Bac tinh Binh Trj Thien bj ngap lut Co 119 xa, phuang chiim gan 60 van dan bj ngap sau Rieng Le S6A\\? 2010 U^ TH6NG TIN KHOA HQC • C O N G NGHg - QB - ^ NGHIEN curu • TRAO DOI Thien Iffc 16 gia 15/10/1985 din 14 gia 16/10/1985 vai sffe gio rat manh, cap 11, cip 12, giat hen cap 12 Pham vi anh huong effa bao rat rgng, thai gian keo dai den 22 gia dong ho, suot chieu dai effa tinh Binh Tri Thien tff Phff Loc den Quang Trach, Tuyen Hoa (trff huyen A Luai) Tuy nhien, nghiem trgng nhat la vffng ven bien, vffng dam pha tff Phff Loc den huyen Le Ninh Bao so da Iam chet 702 nguai toan tinh Binh Trj Thien, rieng huyen Le Ninh 11 nguai So nguai mat tich toan tinh uac tinh 128 nguai, so nha bj sup la 67.664 cai Trong huyen Le Ninh 6.720 nha, Dong Hai 52 nha, Tuyen Hoa 85 nha, Quang Trach 4.045 nha So nha hu hong nang 80.782 nha, huyen Le Ninh 9.200 nha Cac truang hgc, co quan, benh vien, benh xa, nha xuong, nha kho cung bj hu hong nang Bao so gay thiet hai lon ve san xuat nonglam-ngu nghiep, nhat la ve luong thue, eay cong nghiep, de dieu thuy lgi, thuyen, luai, ngu cu Gan lO.OOOha Iffa vu chua thu hoach bj ngap, hen 20.000ha vu Iffa 10 dang lam dong, tro bong, 30.000 san, khoai lang va hang nghin rau cac loai bj hu hong phan lon So thoc giong vu Dong - Xuan nam 1985-1986 bj uat, bj hu hong Cay cong nghiep dai nhu cao su, tieu, che effng bj thiet hai rat lon Gia sffe, gia cam bj chet, bj troi rat nhieu Ve thuy lgi, bao so roi tiep den la bao so da lam hu hai nghiem trgng he thong de ngan man, he thong kenh muong tuai tieu phuc vu cho san xuat nong nghiep Cotn bdo ndm 1993 Con bao vao Quang Binh kit hgp vai khong lanh 23/10/1993 gay mua tai Mai Hoa la 460,8mm Khong lanh, hgi hi nhiet dai hi 16-19/9, dac biet 18/10/1993 gay mua lan tren pham vi toan tinh Luong mua dugc tinh hr gia sang 16 din ^ > - 19 gicr 19: Tai D6ng Tam 983mm (tai Dong Tam 18 mua 616,3mm); tai Mai Hoa 604mm; tai Ba D6n 625mm; tai Dong Hoi 474mm; tai Phan Xa 414mm; tai Kiln Giang 217mm; tai Truong Son 225mm Lu lon gay hau qua nghiem trgng ve nguoi effng nhu tai san cua nha nuac va nhan dan Trong do, bao lam chet 11 nguai, nguai mat tich; nha troi 489 cai; Iffa vu ngap tren 3.000ha; nhieu nha effa, truang hgc, tram xa, benh vien hu hong nang Bdo so ndm 1995 Ngay 8/8/1995, bao xuat phat tren bien Dong tff vT tuyen 12, 13 di dgc theo ba bien cac tinh mien Trung tff Phff Yen, Quang Ngai, Quang Nam, Da Ning, Thffa Thien Hue, Quang Tri, Quang Binh, Ha Tinh, Nghe An, Thanh Hoa Tuy bao di gan ba den Quang Binh da suy yeu ap thap nhiet dai nhung da gay mua lon a cae tinh Tay Nguyen nhu Dac Lac, Lam Dong; mua lon Quang Binh, Ha Tinh, Nghe An Doi vai Quang Binh, Iff lut lan a hai huyen Tuyen Hoa, Minh hoa, da gay nen nhiing thiet hai het sffe nang ne Dgt mua lu bien toan tinh tff 800mm den tren 1.100mm Tai Dong Tam, lugng mua den 7/8 la 1.135mm; tai Mai Hoa 1.010mm Mffc nuac Iff tren song Gianh, tai Dong Tam la 18,34m (vao Iffc 21 gia 7/8), thap ban lu ljeh sff nam 1993 la 0,11m; tai Mai Hoa la 9,47m (vao Iffc 23gia 7/8), tren mffc bao dgng la 3,47m; cao hon lu ljeh sff nam 1993 la 0,64.11, cao nhat chuoi quan hac tff nam 1961 den Tuy bao so chi a cap 8, sau da suy yeu ap thap nhiet doi lai di dgc ba nhung gay mua Iff lon hen mgt vffng rgng lon tff Tay Nguyen den cac tinh mien Trang gay thiet hai ldn ve nguai va tai san Con bdo so nam 2007 Day la mgt bao chi cap 8, thai gian ton tai bao rit ngin nhung gay tran lut lan a cac huyen Tuyen Hoa, Minh Hoa, Quang Trach THONG TIN KHOA HQC - C Q N G NGHE -QB NGHIEN CLfU - TRAO DOI Do anh huong effa bao, phia Bac hoan luu bao s6 suy ylu ap thip nhiet dai Toan tinh Quang Binh co mua vffa den mua to; dac biet luu vuc thugng nguin song Gianh c6 mua to din rit to Mua to nhilu gia da gay Iff lut lon gay hau qua nghiem hgng Trong do, c6 16 ngudi chit, 78 ngudi bj thuong; 68 xabj ngap liit (Huyen Minh Hoa 16 xa, Tuyen Hoa 20 xa, Quang Trach 17 xa, Bo Trach xa, Quang Ninh xa, Le Thuy xa); 3.655 ngdi nha bj sap hoan toan; 7.175,5ha Iffa bj ngap Gia trj thiet hai toan tinh len din 810.215 trieu ddng Day la Iff liit ldn hen cae huyen phia Bac tinh vdng 50 nam chua timg xay II Nhung truong hop can dac biet chii y Bao lut xay da gay thiet hai het sffe nghiem hgng ve ngudi va tai san, la nhiing tradng hgp gay bat ngd da xay ma chffng ta can ludn de phdng, khdng dugc chff quan Chffng tdi xin neu cae trudng hgp cu the: Thiie nhat, thdng thudng bao vao thang 5,6 theo hudng vao duyen hai Hoa Nam (Trang Qude) Vao cac thang 8,9 bao thudng dd bd vao tinh Quang Ninh den Bac Trang Bg (cac tinh tff Ha TTnh trd ra) Tuy nhien, bao sd thdng thudng d cae tinh mien Bac lai dd bd vao Quang Binh va den cac tinh Nam Tmng Bg Cac thang 9, 10, 11 bao thudng vao mien Trung va Nam Trung Bd Tff thang 10, 11 bao tren vT tuyen 20 da giam ban Thang 11 coi nhu khdng cdn bao Cdn cac tinh mien Trang, hong cd Quang Binh thang 9,10 la thang hgng tam effa mffa bao hang nam Tuy nhien, cd nam den thang l i d tinh ta cung cd bao nhung ty le rat thap vay can de phdng Theo (Khi hau mien Bac Viet Nam Nguyen Xien) Thir hai, tff nhiing ket qua quan trac effa tugng thuy van Binh Trj Thien tff nam 18811980 (98 nam) cho thiy: cd 75 bao da bd vao Binh Trj Thien Birffi quan hang nam cd trung binh 0,76 bao dd bd vao; hong thdi ky So 2010 I tir nam 1978-1989, khoang 10 nam bao vao vffng Binh Trj Thien ldn ban trung binh, gan gip ddi cac thdi ky khac 1,8 bao Trong 10 nam gan day, bao vao vffng Quang Binh lai it hon trung binh nhieu nam Cd nghia la cd thdi gian cd thi din 10-20 nam, cd bao ddn dap, cd thdi gian gin nhu khdng cd bao Iff ldn Trong cdng tac phdng chdng lut bao can de phdng tinh huong Thie ba, cd nhung thdi gian ngan bao lien tuc vao mdt tinh Vi du: 16 ngay, tff 10/9 den 26/9 da cd den bao bd vao tinh Quang Binh, gay thiet hai ldn (Khi tugng tinh Binh Trj Thien, hg 130) Bao Iff nam 1985, chi 10 tff 5/10 din 16/10 lien tuc cd hai bao ldn gay nhiing tdn that rat nang ne Thw tie, bao vao mdt vffng rat xa tinh Quang Binh lai gay mua ldn d tinh Quang Binh; chff y bao vao Quang Trach, nhung Iff ldn d Le Thuy Chang ban bao dd bd vao Tuy Hoa 01/10/1960 lai gay mua ldn d tinh Quang Binh Anh hudng can bao 5/10 mua tai Ddng Hdi 317,2mm, toan dgt mua den 885,8mm, gay lu ldn keo dai den 10 khap cac trien sdng effa tinh (SDD, trg 132) Thiie ndm, nhieu bao dudng di phffc tap, hudng di khd ludng, cd bao da di len phia Ddng Bac Bac Bd rat xa tudng chffng da tan, nhung sau dd quay trd lai vao vffng Binh Trj Thien vdi thdi gian tdn tai 21-22 Neu chi can cff vao du bao thdi tiet thi effng da xay tradng hgp du bao thieu chinh xac, nhat la bao da vao gan dat lien Vi the ddi hdi cac dja phuong phai cd su chuan bj ky ludng de chff dgng ddi phd vdi nhung bao cd the xay Thir sdu, ddi vdi nhung can bao manh nam 1983, cd tinh ljeh sff bg vao Quang Binh gay tdn that rat nang ne nhu bao (bao LEC) vdi sffe gid cap 11,12 keo dai gid kem theo mua to den rat to tff Ddng Ha den Quang Trach Tai Ddpg Hdi, 26/10/1983 dugc THONG TIN KHOA HQC - C O N G NGHg - QB ^ ^ NGHlgNCCrU - TRAO DOi 40m/s Can bao la mdt thff thach cho vffng cay cao su effa tinh Trade do, mdt sd chuyen gia cay cdng nghiep cho ring Quang Binh la tinh cd bao ldn, cay cao su la cay cdng nghiep de bj gay, khdng hiln vgng cho viec sinh tradng va phat hiln Con bao lam cho cay cao su d Ndng hudng Viet Trang hiu hit deu bj dd gay Tuy nhien, qua khao sat thdi bay gid sd cay dd tan gdc chua din 5%, cdn hiu hit diu bj dd tren 1,5m Sau tff 2-3 nam, cay cao su phuc hdi rat nhanh, san lugng mff effng tuong duong trade day Thir bdy, bao kit hgp vdi gid mffa Ddng Bac gay mua ldn, thdng thudng mua keo dai 2-3 nhung cd keo dai 3-5 Thie tdm, vffng phia Bac tinh bao gdm cac huyen Bd Trach, Quang Trach, Tuyen Hoa, Minh Hoa Iff thudng xuat hien sdm hon va ket thffc sdm ban Tuy nhien, van cd 12% Iff xuat hien vao thang Cd nghia la 100 nam, cd 12 nam Iff hong thang 8, tap trang thang va 10, chff yeu thang 10 Iff den 46% Vffng phia Nam tinh tff phd Ddng Hdi, huyen Quang Ninh, Le Thuy lu thudng xuat hien mudn ban, bat dau tff thang ket thffc cd the den thang 12 Tuy nhien, lu van xuat hien thang vdi tan suat 4%, cd nghia 100 nam cd nam cd Iff thang 8, tap trang thang 10,11; thang eung mdi 23%, ma tff dau den giffa thang Iff cung ehua nhieu, chff yeu sau 15/9 Ket qua quan trac effa Dai tugng Binh Trj Thien cung nhu ket qua quan hac Tram Khi tugng Quang Binh da cho chffng ta nhiing ket qua tuong ddi day dff quy luat Iff d cac vffng Quang Binh cd y nghia thuc tiin rat ldn san xuat va ddi sdng Dac biet hong bd hi ca cau cay trdng, CO cau mffa vu tranh dugc thiet hai vu lua 8, vu Iffa Ddng Xuan va thuc te chung ta da lam dugc dieu dd rat cdng Can cff quy luat thdi tilt d Quang Binh, nhat la kha nang xuat hien Iff hong vu cho phep tff gat xong Iffa vu Chiem Xuan den mffa bao lut cd 3-4 thang Trong khoang thdi gian ay cd the gieo cay, thu hoach trgn ven mdt vu lua Vffng Bic cua tinh (cac huyen Quang Trach, Tuyen Hoa, Minh Hoa, Bd Trach): Thang VIII IX X XI Tan suat (%) 12 36 46 Vffng Nam effa tinh (cac huyen Quang Ninh, Le Thuy, phd Ddng Hdi): Thang VIII IX X XI Tan suat (%) 23 39 33 (SS lieu Trgm tuong thiiy vdn Binh Trj Thien tir ndm 1960-1989 cung cdp cho VP UBND tinh) Tan suat Iff xuat hien thang d phia Bac la 12, cd nghia 100 nam cd 12 nam cd Iff xuat hien khoang cudi thang 8; cdn phia Nam tinh hong 100 nam cung chi cd nam ed lu cuoi thang Lu lut hong thang xuat hien trade 15 ciing chi 16% Thiic chin, cd bao keo dai den 21-22 ngay, tudng rang bd vao Binh Trj Thien, rdi chuyen hudng Bac nhung lai ddi hudng Bac Ddng Bac, quay lai bd vao tinh Thie mudi, bao Iff thudng gay thiet hai het sffe nang ne Tuy nhien, bao cung dem lai mgt lugng mua ldn cung cap lugng nudc ngam dang ke, bd sung mgt lugng nudc ldn hong mffa ha, phff sa ve mang bdi dap cho ddng radng Vi the can ban che thiet hai, tan dung mat lgi ve lugng mua, lugng phff sa Qua thuc te nhieu tu lieu ghi lai dugc, nam cd it bao lugng nudc mua b j hut nhieu so vdi trung binh Thu muoi mgt, cd du bao bao lut cd the xay ra, cac dja phuang can cd nhiing du tinh du bao, chff ddng dl phdng vdi nhiing tinh hudng xiu bao gay Cdng tac phdng chdng lut bao phai dugc triln khai sdm trade mffa bao lut nhu cdng tac dip de, kiem an toan hd dap N.N.T TH6NG TIN ^ KHOA HQC - C Q N G N G H $ • QB ... bao Trong 10 nam gan day, bao vao vffng Quang Binh lai it hon trung binh nhieu nam Cd nghia la cd thdi gian cd thi din 10-20 nam, cd bao ddn dap, cd thdi gian gin nhu khdng cd bao Iff ldn Trong. .. Tai D6ng Tam 983mm (tai Dong Tam 18 mua 616,3mm); tai Mai Hoa 604 mm; tai Ba D6n 625mm; tai Dong Hoi 474mm; tai Phan Xa 414mm; tai Kiln Giang 217mm; tai Truong Son 225mm Lu lon gay hau qua nghiem... vffa den mua to; dac biet luu vuc thugng nguin song Gianh c6 mua to din rit to Mua to nhilu gia da gay Iff lut lon gay hau qua nghiem hgng Trong do, c6 16 ngudi chit, 78 ngudi bj thuong; 68 xabj