NGHIEN CCrU TRAO BOI N H Q N G T A C DONG CHU YEU CUA BIEN DO! KHi HAU Vefl stf PHAT TRIEN KINH TE • XA HOI VUN6 BAC TRUNfi BO Cac hoat dOng ciia con ngUdi trong nhi^u thap ky g^n ddy da lam gia tang[.]
NGHIEN CCrU - TRAO BOI N H Q N G T A C DONG CHU YEU CUA BIEN DO! KHi HAU Vefl stf PHAT TRIEN KINH TE -• XA HOI VUN6 BAC TRUNfi BO TRirONG DtNH TRQNG Trudng D^i hgc Khoa hgc Hue trung binh khodng 90cm (theo kich bdn eao), Cac hoat dOng ciia ngUdi nhi^u se nhan chim mflt sd'ddo nhd vd nhilu vffng thap ky g^n ddy da lam gia tang ddng k^ ddng b^ng ven biln cO dia hinh thd'p Cung nhiJng tac nhan gay hieu ling nhd kinh (n6ng theo dtf bdo ndy, cai gia ma m§i quo'c gia thai eac hoat dOng cdng nghiep, phdi trd dl giSi quye't hau qua ciia bien doi giao thOng, sU gia tang ddn sd ), lam Uai dat hdu mgt vai chuc nam nffa se vao nOng dtn ldn, tiJf dd gSy hang loat nhffng khodng tff 5-20% GDP moi nam, Uong dd chi thay d^i Uong mdi trUdng tU nhien N^u phi vd ton thd't d cac ntfdc dang phat trien se chung ta khdng co nhiJng hanh ddng kip thdi ldn hOn nhieu so vdi cac ntfdc phat trien nham ban che, giam thieu tac dOng va tim Vidt Nam la ntfdc dang phdt triln, phdt idem nhffng giai phap d^ thich ffng thi hdu thai gdy hidu ling nha kinh d mffc dd cdn qua mang d^n se vd ciing nang nl thS^p, nhffng lai phai hffng ehiu nhilu tdc Bien doi hau la sU bie^n dgng Uang dOng cua bie^n ddi hau Theo danh gid thai trung blnh cua quy^n toan can hay cua Ngdn hang The^gidi (2007), Viet Nam la khu vUe theo thdi gian tff vdi thdp ky de'n mdt so' cac nffdc se hi anh hffdng nghidm Uong cua bien ddi h§u va ntfdc hang tridu nam Nhffng bid'n d^i dugc gay qua trinh dOng lffc cua trai deft, bffc xa mat trdi va gan day cd them hoat dgng cua ngUdi Bien ddi hau thdi gian tff d^u the'ky XX de'n dffdc gdy hen quan chu ye^u de^n cac boat ddng cfiacon ngffdi Theo dff bao ciia Uy ban Lien Qudc gia vl bi^n doi hau (IPCC), d^n nam 2100 nhi6t toan can se tang thdm til 1,4°C tdi 5,8°C Stf ndng len cua bl mat drdi dat se ldm bang tan d hai ctfc va cac vung nui cao, lam NhiSu xa cua tinh Quang Binh ngap chim nudc lu mtfc ntfdc bi^n ddng cao them • ^ ^ r7 2012 LNi HUdNG Tdl KY NIEM 410 NAM QUANG BINH HiNH THANH VA PHAT TRIEN (1604-2014) NGHigN CCru - TRAO o l bi^n dSng, d6 vilng < NGHIEN CLAJ - TRAO DOI cd cdc yl^u td'ndy se tdc ddng tong hdp dl^n mdi trffdng vd ndi sdng ciaa sinh vdt, dnh hffdng nghiem trgng dl^n ddi sdng sinh vdt vd ta't nhidn se tdc d0ng cdc nS lffc nh^m bdo vg thd' gidi tff nhidn, dd bao gdm cd cdng tac bdo tin da dang sinh hgc Mffc nffdc bien dang trffdc m^t se tdc ddng bd't ldi dd'n cdc hd sinh thdi ven biln, nhff vilng d^t ngdp nffdc, rffng ngdp mdn Nffdc biln dang cung dong nghia vdi sff mdn hod d^m phd nffdc Id ven biln diln hinh cua khu vffc, lam mat tinh chu ky hdng ndm vd cd thi dnh hffdng nghiem trgng de^n cau true thdnh phtn lodi sinh vdt hidn dang c6 mdt c) Tdc dgng cua bien ddi h$u dS'n ngdnh thu^ sdn: Trong linh vffc thuy sdn, tdc ddng tdi nguon lgi thuy san, dien tich nudi thu^ san; den nang sud't, sdn Iffdng khai thac va danh bat thuy san Nhidt dd nffdc biln tang lam nguon ldi thuy hai san phan tan Cdc lodi ca nhidt ddi tang ldn, trff Iffdng cac loai hai san cd gid tri kinh te' bi gidm Hidn tffdng ENSO tang lam thay doi vi tri mat dd cd thong qua cau true cac viing nffdc va dong hai lffu khac Nffdc biln ddng se tdc dgng manh nhat de'n hd tho'ng song hi, d^m phd, dac bidt Id cac vung nudi thuy sdn Ne'u mffc nffdc biln dang cao thdm Im thi toan bg he thdng bd ngdn, de quai hidn c6 se khong cdn khd nang s^ dung, nhieu didn tich nuoi thuy sdn se chim sdu nffdc man Thdi gian anh hffdng cua bao kdo dai, t^n sua't xulft hidn bao thffdng xuydn hdn lam giam thdi gian danh bat, chi phi xang dau phong tranh bao Idn Bao lut phd hoai nhilu ngff cu khai thac cd dinh trdn dam phd, biln (nghi nd sao, day, long ca, ) tang chi phi sffa chffa Lu lut ldn thffdng xuydn xay lam bid'n dii ddng chdy, ddng chay cua cac vung cffa sdng dnh hffdng den hanh trinh tau thuyin khai thdc thuy sdn, cdc luong di cir sinh trffdng cua cd Thdi tid't bien dgng manh ldm dnh hffdng dd'n mua vu nudi trdng, dich bdnh phdt sinh dnh hffdng de'n nang su^tnuoi BDKH se ldm thay doi moi trffdng ttf nhien dan d^n bien doi da dang sinh hpc, t|p tinh sdng cua cdc loai dgng thffc v|t thuj sinh; bi^n ddng nguon gidng tff nhien Khi nhidt tang qua cao, ddng v$t nuoi cdc ao ho cd the ch^t, chdm ldn, an kdm lam dnh hffdng den nang su^t, s^n Iffdng, cdc chung vi khuan, nam phdt trien nhanh, manh gay dich benh, gay hien tffdng phu dffdng ao nuoi, song ho, dam pha Nhff vay, ndng nghidp va ndng thdn cua khu vffc Bac Trung Bd dang vd selalinhvi/c chiu anh hffdng cua tac ddng BDKH nang ne nh^t t^t ca cac ITnh vffc kinh te d) Tdc d$ng cUa bien dot h4u den ngdnh cong nghi$p: Khu vffc Bac Trung Bd vd'n da cd mgtnen nhidt dd trung binh cao va thffdng bien dgng hdn nhffng ndi khac, nhidt tang din den Iffdng bdc hdi tang ke't hdp vdi sff that thffctng che' mffa ldm thay doi Iffdng dtf trfl va lffu Iffdng eda cdc thuy didn gay anh hffdng de'n kha nang cungffngvd dieu tietke hoach sdn xuat thuy didn Nhidt tang din dd'n chi phi lam mat, thdng gid cac nha mdy sdn xuat cdng nghidp tang len dangke nham ddm bao sffc kh6e cho ngffdi lao dgng, cung nhff bao qudn mdy mdc thiet bi va pham, nguydn v&t lieu, Iffdng tieu thu dien cho sinh boat va cac nha may san xuat cdng nghiep cung tang nhanh si! dung nhilu thie't bi de lam mat nhtf quat HaClNG Tdl KY NIEM 410 NAM QUANG BJNH HJNH THANH VA PHATTRIEN ( - ) : j ] ^ NGHIEN Cl/U - TRAO DOI dien, may dilu hda nhiet do, thdng gid, ddn de'n sff cd Iffdi dign vd edc tram bi^n dp xdy thffdng xuydn vi nhu du sff dung di^n vffdt qua phu tai cffa cdc nhd mdy dien, ding thdi nhilu cd sd san xu^t cdng nghidp se bi thil^u nguon dien In dinh ldm cdc cd sd sdn xuat kinh doanh kdm hieu qud, Nhidt tdng dan de'n Iffdng bd'c hdi tdng k^t hdp vdi sff thd't thffdng chd'dd mffa lam thay dii Iffdng dff trff va lffu Iffdng ciia cdc nhd mdy thdy dign gay dnh hffdng dl^n khd ndng cung ffng vd dilu tid^t kl^ hoach sdn xud't thuy dif n Theo nhff kich bdn BDKH cho khu vffc, ne'u nhff mffc nffdc bien dang cao Im, thi he th^ng tang ky thudt cdc cum cong nghidp va Idng nghi cdc vung ven bien cd nguy cd bi ngap ung, giao thdng bi chia eat khong the giao lffu thuan ldi vdi bdn ngodi Mgt sd vung chuydn canh sdn xud't nguydn lidu cung cS^p cho cac cd sd sdn xua't cong nghidp (nhff che' bie'n san, cao su ) bi thu hep hoac khdng edn nffa, gay khd khan ve nguin nguydn lidu cho cac cd sd san xua't Cdc nha xffdng va cd sd ting cfla khu CN dffdc thiet ke^theo tieu chuan hidn hdnh chffa tinh den BDKH nen g|p bao manh, mffa cffdng dd ldn se bi hff hai hode ngap lut e) Tdc dgng cua bii'n ddi hau de'n ngdnh xdy dUng vd giao thdng vdn tdi: Vung dong bang ven bien khu vffc Bac Trung Bd chiem khodng 30% didn tich va tap trung nhieu thi vffa va nhd, m§t dd ddn cff ddng, thffdng xuydn bi dnh hffdng cua bao lut, ngdp ung cang trim trgng Trong nhffng nam tdi, bil^n doi hau, Iffdng mffa va ddng chdy cd thi tdng cao, nhffng c6 cdc ho thffdng nguon dilu tid^t ndn lu khdng cdn dc lidt nhff nhffng nam vffa qua Tuy nhidn, ndm khu vffc thap trung ndn nffdc biln dang cao mdt sd dd thi ven bien bi ngdp lau hdn trffdc nffdc lu khdng thodt kip Nffdc biln ddng se de dga cdc cdng trinh cdng nghigp, giao thdng v^n tdi, an ninh qud'c phdng dffdc thil't kd' theo mtfc hidn tai dnh hffdng dd ben cffa cdng trinh Tdc ddng ciia nffdc bien ddng gdy xdi Id khu vffc dan cff ven biln ldm m^t nhd cffa cua nhdn dan Didn tich khu dan cff ven bd hi thu hep Tin suat dnh hffdng cua bao tdng, cffdng ciaa bao manh hdn se vffdt qud tidu chu^n thil't kd'hidn hdnh, gdy hff hai cdng ttinh Trong linh vffc giao thdng vdn tdi, dnh hffdng ciaa bien dii hau khd rd net; -•• Theo kich bdn BDKH, dd'n nam 2100 mffc nffdc bien dang eao them Im so vdi hien nay, dieu lam cho cdc hdi cang bao gom cau tau, nha kho, ben bai dffdc thie^t ke theo mffc nffdc biln hidn tai se phai dffdc ndng cd'p dl chiu dffng dffdc chd'dd sdng gid Cdc tuyd'n dffdng giao thdng nam sat biln se bi dnh hffdng + Mffa vdi cffdng dd manh ldm cho cdng thoat nffdc thie't ke theo tidu chuan cu khdng ddm bao, gay ngap ung cue bg Mffa lu cdn gay lu quet, sat Id da't phd buy cac cdng trinh giao thdng nhff cau cong, dffdng bg, dffdng s^t Sat Id dd't cdn gdy deh tac giao thdng, nhd't Id tuyd'n dffdng Hi Chi Minh, eac tuyd'n qud'c Id theo hffdng Ddng - TSy vd tinh Id Mffa lu cung la nguyen nhan lam tang chi phi tu bdo dffdng vd sffa chffa eac cdng trinh giao thdng, lam cham tidn xdy dffng cac cdng tiinh nam qui hoach Cac tuyen dffdng thd'p d ding blng ngdp sdu hdn, thdi gian ngam nffdc lau hdn, cdc kdt can mat dffdng nhffa bi pha hdng rat nhanh va nhieu hdn Cdc tuyd'n dffdng miln nui, vung cao bi sat Id mai taluy cdng nghidm trgng, he thdng cau, cdng cang td de bi pha hoai va qua tdi ve chtfc nang thoat nffdc S6A\V7 ;^Hl/dNG Tdl KYNfEM 410 NAM QUANG BiNH HJNH THANH VA PHAT TRIEN (1604-2014) 2012 LN^ NGHIEN CLfU - T R A D I thodt lu Sff xudng c^p cua h0 thdng clu dffdng vd nhffng sff cd tiong miia mffa Id cdn tid ldn dd'i vdi mdng vSn tdi, lifu thdng Trong mffa mffa lu nhilu ndi bj cd l$p, khdng thitil'pcln + Vi#c thi cdng ting giao thdng ludn bj ch|m tid'n d0 dnh hffdng ciia thdi ti^t vd chd't Iffdng gidm khdng ddm bdo dffgc ydu clu ky thudt vl thdi tiet Nhilu tuyl'n dffdng da bi phd hai gdy thidt hai ldn qud trinh thi cdng Ha ting giao thdng neu phdt triln theo dung quy hoach tff trffdc phdi dilu chinh rd't nhilu gdp phdi cdc v^n dl vl thodtnffdctidnhlu f) Tdc dgng cua bien ddi h4u di'n ngdnh du lich: Du lich la mgt nganh kinh te' tong hdp, cd tinh lidn vung, lidn ngdnh va tinh xa hdi hda rat cao; mdt quoc gia, vung lanh tho cd tai nguydn du lich mudn phat tiien nhanh va ben vffng phu thudc rd't nhilu vdo nhffng y^u to' tdc dgng, tiong dd dieu kien tff nhien ma van de dia hinh vd hau la vd cung quan tigng BDKH tac ddng manh me dl^n cd ba yd^u to' bin vffng ve kinh te, ben vffng vl xa hdi vd bin vffng vl tdi nguydn thien nhien va dieu kien tff nhien, dd gian tie'p tdc ddng de'n sff nghiep phdt triln du lich + BDKH kem theo cdc hidn tffdng thdi tiet cffc doan nhff: lu lut, bao, n^ng ndng, dnh hffdng trffc tid'p dd'n boat dgng du lich, dnh hffdng dd'n tinh thdi vu cua du lich, ldm gidm hieu qud kinh doanh du lich cua vffng -^ Thi trffdng khach se cd nhffng nhiJng xao dgng nghiemff-gng:Tff trffdc dd'n nay, thi trffdng khach truyin thd'ng cua du lich ti-ong vung la tff cdc nffdc Tdy Au, B^c My; mdc du nhffng nam trd lai day da co hffdng chuyen sang cdc thi trffdng Ddng Bac A, cac nffdc tiong khu vffc Asean, theo nha n dinh tiii ddy Id nhttng thi trffdng cd mffc chi tid cao, nhttng dnh hffdng cia BDKH se ldm giSm thu nhgp cua hg vd dd se lam gidm ddng ke Iffdng du khdch d^n tff cdc thi trtffing truylnthdngndy - BDKH se idm cho nhttng cd sd ting vd ket ciu xa hgi lidn quan den du lich, nh^t Id tai cdc vilng nffi cao, cdc vung thap triing, viing ven bd se bi huy hoai, tham chi hi nhS^o chim, dilu ndy dang Id nhttng de dga dii vdi vffng ven bien cua B^c Trung Bd g) Tdc dgng cua bii'n ddi h^u den cuQC song vd svtc khde c0ng dSng: * Tdc dong den sulc khde c0ng ddng: K^t qud nghien ctfu ve tic dgng cua bi^n doi hau ddi vdi ngffdi to chiic Global Humanitarian Forum cua cffu ting Thff k^ LHQ Kofi Annan vffa cdng bdcho bi^t, hidn nay, BDKH da cffdp di mang song cua 300.000 ngffdi moi nam va dnh hffdng de'n cuoc sdng cua 300 trieu ngffdi tidn trdi da't tdc ddng tff nhttng ddt nang ndng, In lut va chayriifnggdy Nhiet tang ldm tdng tdc ddngtieuctfc ddi vdi sffc kho^ ngffdi, dan den gia tdng mgt sd' nguy cd dd'i vdi tuoi gia, ngffdi m^c bgnh tim mach, bdnh thin kinh Thien tai nhff bao, td, nffdc ddng, ngSp lut, han hdn, mffa ldn va sat Id da't gia tang vl cffdng(^ vd tin sud't lam tdng sd ngffdi bi thiet mang vd dnh hffdng gidntil^pd^n stfc kho6 th6ng qua d nhidm mdi trffdng, suy dinh dtf9ng, bdnh tat BDKH lam tang khd nang xay mdt stf benh nhidt ddi: sdt rdt, sd't xuat huyl^t, laffl tang td'c sinhtirffdngvd phat triln nhilu loai vi khuan va cdn trung, vat chii mang bdnh, lam tang sd Iffdng ngffdi bi bdnh nhil^ khuin delay lan " * Tdc dong den ddi sdng vd sinh kicua < y < ^ HUCING Tdl KY NIEM 410 NAM QUANG BINH HJNH T H A N H VA PHAT T R I I N (1604-2014) T ^ NGHIEN CLTU - TRAO DOI ngUdiddn: BDKH tdc dgng d^n tai sdn, sinh ke' cua ngffdi dan tai khu vffc, ddc bidt Id nhffng vung ndng thdn, miln mil, ven sdng, ven biln Thidn tai, bao lu ap d^n, khid'n ngffdi dan ndi ddy khdng nhttng bi md't dd't, mat tdi sdn, mat ndi cff trff md ddi sdng ciia hg cung se hi dnh hffdng rd't ndng ne Md't vide ldm, mat ke sinh nhai, khdng cdn dd't de sdn xud't, dd^t hi xdm nhdp mdn, ndng suat sdn xu^t se gidm, ddi hdi phdi thay doi ky thudt sdn xua't mdi hay thay doi cd cd'u ddi tffgng sdn xuat theo chiiu hffdng khdng cd ldi Ngoai md^t tdi sdn,ngffdi ddn d khu vffc cdn chiu nhttng thiet thdi ve cdc van de ddi sdng tinh thin khac nhff viec hgc hanh, dich vu y td' nhttng tdc ddng ndy cd thi lam suy gidm khd nang cffa ngffdi tiong viec dam bdo cudc sd'ng, vffdt qua ddi ngheo * Tdc ddng denxd hgi vdn de ngheo doi, diddnvdanninhxdhoi: BDKH CO the lam cho nen kinh te' cham phat triln, ddi song va chat Iffdng cudc sdng cua ngffdi gidm di keo theo la sff gia tang dan sd, ding thdi Id sff mit can ddi vl ddn so se xay Sff suy giam didn tich, thid'u Iffdng thffc, ndi d va ngheo kiet tai nguyen thidn nhien khid'n nhilu ngffdi ngheo vung ndng thdn, vung ven biln, vung sdu bi tin thffdng Dieu khien hien tffdng di dan va doi chd mang tinh cd hgc gia tang nl^u khdng cd bien phap ddi phd Lu lut hoanh hanh, nffdc biln dang cao se ldm thu hep dien tich khu dan cff sinh sdng ven biln, ven sdng; tn/c ti^p de dga den cudc song ngffdi dan, ngffdi ddn ngheo ndi ddy, budc hg phdi di cff vao sau ndi dia, dd thi, dan d^n lam md't nguIn sinh ke vd xdo trdn cudc sd'ng ngffdi dan Gay hien tffdng quy hoach dd thi hi pha vd, ^ ^ mditiffdngdd thi se bi xlu di sff gia tang cd hgc ve dan sd', gay khd khdn quy hoach sip xd'p lai ddn cff khIc phuc h$u qud khu vffc hi thidn tai vd phdngtidnhthidn tai 4.Kd'tludn Trong nhffng tiidp nidn trd lai ddy, BDKH todn cau da gdy nhffng tdc dgng trffc tid'p hay gidn tid'p de'n mdi trffdng sdng, den phat tiiln kinh te - xa hfi, ddi sd'ng eda ngffdi mdt cdch ro net BDKH vd nffdc biln ddng da vd dang tdc dgng dl^n vd^n de phat triln kinh te' - xa hgi ciia cdc tinh tiong khu vffc Bdc Trung Bg Nd'u cdc cap, cac nganh, cdc dia phffdng khdng CO nhffng chinh sdch, ehien Iffdc va gidi phap hdp ly phdng trdnh va thich ffng vdi BDKH thi tiong nhffng ndm tdi mffc anh hffdng dl^n cdc linh vffc KT-XH se cao hdn, thu nh§p binh qudn diu ngffdi gidm, ty Id hd nghdo tang ldn, tinh trang doi kem, thid^u Iffdng thffc se thffdng xuyen, d nhiem mdi trffdng, dich benh lay lan khdng the kiemsoatdffdc Deffngpho vdi BDKH va nffdc bien dang cho cac dia phffdng khu vffc cIn sdm triln khai thffc hidn cac chffdng trinh, ke hoach hanh ddng ffng phd vdi BDKH nham tffng bffdc danh gia dffdc nhttng tdc dgng tdi tffng nganh, tffng linh vffc mdt each chi tid^t va toan didn hdn Khi cd nhffng ddnh gid chi tie't cho tffng nganh, linh vffc ve BDKH se gdp phan giup cho nganh, ITnh vffc va ban chi dao cd dffdc nhffng giai phdp ffng va thich ffng toan dien ve nhffng tac dgng cua BDKH tdi cac nganh, phan kinh td' cho mdi dia phffdng vd ca khu vffc nham phat trien kinh te' theo hffdng da muc tieu va thich ffng dffdc vdi bie'n doi hau va nffdc bien dang j^j HHUdNG Tdl KY N I E M 410 NAM QUANG BlNH HiNH THANH VA PHATTRIEN (1604-2014) ... che nhiJng tdc ddng tidu ctfc gdp phdnthucdayphdttridnkinhtd- xahpib^n viJng cho viing Bdc Trung Bp Kich ban bi^n ddi ktai hdu d khu vifc B^c Trung B$ Dtfa tren tdi lieu "kich bdn bidn ddi Ichi... khu vffc Bac Trung Bd dang vd selalinhvi/c chiu anh hffdng cua tac ddng BDKH nang ne nh^t t^t ca cac ITnh vffc kinh te d) Tdc d$ng cUa bien dot h4u den ngdnh cong nghi$p: Khu vffc Bac Trung Bd vd''n... phat tiiln kinh te - xa hfi, ddi sd''ng eda ngffdi mdt cdch ro net BDKH vd nffdc biln ddng da vd dang tdc dgng dl^n vd^n de phat triln kinh te'' - xa hgi ciia cdc tinh tiong khu vffc Bdc Trung Bg