NGHIEN CUU TRIEN KHAI NHUNG TAC DONG CHU YEU CUA BIEN DOI KHI HAU DOI VOI SU PHAT TRIEN KINH TE XA HOI VUNG B A C TRUNG BO 1 Dat van de Cac hogt dpng ciia con ngudi trong nhieu thap ky gan day da lam[.]
NGHIEN CUU - TRIEN KHAI N H U N G TAC D O N G CHU YEU CUA BIEN D O I KHI HAU D O I V O I SU PHAT TRIEN K I N H TE-XA HOI V U N G B A C TRUNG BO Dat van de Cac hogt dpng ciia ngudi nhieu thap ky gan day da lam gia tang dang ke nhirng tac nhan gay hieu iing nha kinh (ndng thai cac hoat ddng cdng nghiep, giao thdng, su gia tang dan so ), lam trai dat ndng dan len, tir gay hang loat nhiing thay ddi mdi trudng tu nhien NIU ehiing ta khdng cd nhirng hanh dpng kip thdi nhim ban che, giam thieu tac ddng va tim kiem nhiing giai phap de thich irng thi hau qua mang den se vd ciing nang ne Theo du bao ciia Uy ban Lien Qudc gia ve bien ddi hau (IPCC), den nam 2100 nhiet toan ciu se tang them tit 1,4''C tdi 5,8°C Su ndng len cua be mat trai dit se Iam bang tan d hai cue va cac viing mii cao, lam muc nudc bien dang cao them tmng binh khoang 90cm (theo kjch ban cao), se nhan chim mdt sd dao nhd va nhieu viing ddng bang ven bien cd dia hinh thap, Cung theo du bao nay, cai gia ma mdi qudc gia phai tra de giai quyet hau qua cua bien ddi hau mdt vai chuc nam nira se vao khoang tir 5-20% GDP mdi nam, chi phi va ton that d cac nudc dang phat trien se Idn hon nhieu so vdi cac nudc phat trien Viet Nam la nudc dang phat trien, phat thai gay hieu irng nha kinh d mirc thap, nhung lai phai hirng chiu nhieu tac dgng ciia bien ddi hau Theo danh gia ciia Ngan hang The gidi (2007), Viet Nam la mgt sd cac nudc se bi anh hudng nghiem trpng ciia bien ddi hau va nudc bien dang, vimg ddng bang sdng Hdng va ddng bang sdng Ciiu Long bi ngap chim nhieu nhat Neu muc nudc bien dang Im se cd 10% dan sd bi anh hudng tmc tiep, tdn thit khoang 10% GDP, niu nudc bien dang 3m se cd khoang 25% dan sd bi anh hudng true tiip va tdn that khoang 25% GDP Viing Bac Tmng Bd ciia Viet Nam bao gdm tinh la Thanh Hda, Nghe An, Ha TTnh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thira Thien Hue vdi tdng dien tich tu nhien tren 51,5 nghin km , dan sd khoang 11 trieu ngudi Day la khu vuc hep ve chieu ngang, tat ca cac tinh deu tiep giap vdi bien d phia ddng, phia tay la viing ddi niii cd ddc kha Idn Nhin chung, day la khu vuc cd dieu kien tu nhien tuong ddi khac nghiet, thudng xuyen chiu anh hudng cua thien tai, ddi sdng ngudi dan cdn gap nhieu khd khan, miic sdng cdn thap, nen kinh te chii yeu phu thudc vao san xuat ndng-lam-ngu nghiep Vung Bic Tmng Bd la mdt nhirng noi chiu anh hudng nhiiu nhit tir thien tai Qua thuc tien cho thay day la khu vyc dang chiu anh hudng it nhat ctia loai hinh BAN TIN KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE TiNH THU'A THIEN HUE, 7/2012 NGHIEN CU'U - TRIEN KHAI thien tai, hiim hog gay bao gdm: bao, lu (kl ea lu quel), lut, hgn ban, sat Id dit, loc, xam nhgp man va xdi Id bd sdng bd bien Hien nay, anh hudng va tac ddng ciia bien ddi hau nhu su ndng len ciia trai dat, nudc bien dang, dien bien ciia hgu cang khac nghiet khdng cdn la chuyen cua the gidi, ciia nhirng nha khoa hpc ma nd dang trd mdt hiem boa thuc su cho Viet Nam, dd cd khu vuc Bac Tmng Bd Thien tai va cac hien tugng thdi tiet cue doan anh hudng ciia bien ddi hau dang cang trd nen thudng xuyen ban vdi cudng dg mgnh ban, gay anh hudng Idn den cac hoat ddng kinh te-xa hdi ciia khu vyc Vi vay, can phai cd nhiing nghien ciru nham tim kiem nhirng giai phap de thich irng vdi bien ddi hau, han che nhiing tac ddng tieu cue gdp phan thiic day phat trien kinh te-xa hdi ben virng cho viing Bac Tmng Bd Kich ban bien doi Ichi hau a khu vuc Bac Trung Bo Dua tren tai lieu "Kjch ban bien ddi hau va nudc bien dang cho Viet Nam" va cac cdng trinh nghien ciru cd lien quan, kich ban bien ddi hau vimg Bac Tmng Bd duoc xac dinh nhu sau * Kich ban thay ddi vi nhiet dp: - Sugia tdng nhiet dp so vdi thdi ky 1980-1999 theo kich ban phdt thai ihdp (BI): Cac moc thai gian ciia the ky XXI Vung 2020 2030 2040 2050 Bac Trung Bo 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 2060 2070 2080 1.6 1,7 2090 2100 1.9 1,9 1,8 - Sir gia tdng nhiet dp so vdi thai ky 1980 - 1999 theo kich ban plidl thdi trung binh (B Cac moc thoi gian cua the ky X X I Viing Bac Trung Bp 2020 2030 0,5 0,8 2040 2050 1,5 1,1 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1,8 2,1 2,4 2,6 2,8 - Sugia tdng iihiel dp so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999 Iheo kjch bdn phdl ihdi cao (A2): Cac moc thoi gian ciia the ky XXI Vung Bac Trting Bo 2020 2030 2040 2050 0,6 0,9 1,2 1.5 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1,8 2,2 2,6 3,1 3,6 * Kjch bim thay doi vi lugrng mua: - Theo kich han phdt thai thdp (BI): Vao cudi the ki XXI, luong mua nam d Bac Tmng Bg cd the tang 5%, lugng mua tiidi ki tir thang III den thang V se giam tir 3-6%, lugng mua cac thang cao diem cua miia mua se tang tir den 10% so vdi thai ki 1980-1999 BAN TIN KHOA HpC VA CONG NGHE TINH THU'A THIEN HUC, 7/2012 NGHIEN CU'U - TRIEN KHAI Miec thay ddi lugng mua ndm (%) so vdi thai ky 1980 -1999 theo kich ban BI: Cac moc thoi gian ciia the ky XXI Viing 2020 2030 2040 2050 Bac Trung Bo 1,5 2,2 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 4,3 4,7 4,9 5,0 5,0 3,8 3,1 - 77760 kich ban phdt thdi trung binh (B2): Vao cudi the ki XXI, lugng mua nam d Bic Tmng Bd cd the tang 7-8%, lugng mua thdi ki tir thang III den thang V se giam tir 47%, lugng mua cac thang cao diem ciia miia mua se tang tir 10 den 15% so vdi thdi ki 1980-1999 Miec thay ddi luang miea ndm (%) so vdi thdi ky 1980-1999 theo kich bdn B2: Cac moc thoi gian ciia the ky XXI Vimg 2020 2030 2040 2050 Bac Trung Bp 1,5 2,2 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 4,9 5,7 6,4 7,1 7,7 4,0 3,1 - Theo kich bdn phdt thdi cao (A2): Vao cudi the ki XXI, luong mua nam d Bac Trung Bd cd the tang 10%», lugng mua thdi ki tir thang UI den thang V se giam khoang 13%, luong mua cac thang cao diem ciia miia mua se tang tir 12-19% so vdi thdi ki 1980-1999, Mirc thay ddi lugng mua nam (%) so vdi thdi ky 1980-1999 iheo kich ban A2: Cac moc tho^i gian ciia the ky XXI Viing Bac Trung Bp 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 1,8 2,3 3,0 3,7 4,8 5,9 7,1 8,4 2100 9,7 * Kich ban ve miec mr&c biin dang: Mpt so nghien cmi gan day ehp rang muc nuoc bien tpan cau co thg tang 50-140cm vap nam 2100, Ket qua tinh tpan thep cac kich ban phat thai ehp thay vap giua thi ki XXI muc nuoc bien cp the dang them tir 28-33cm va den cufli the ki XXI la 65-lOOcm SP voi thoiki 1980-1999 Nhu vay, bien doi hau co kha nang lam gia tang su khSc nghiet cua che hau khu vuc, cu the nhu sau Nhiet trung binh nam tang khoang 0,l°C/thap ky Mot so thang mila he, nhiet tang khoang 0,l-0,3°C/thap ky, Ve miia dong, nhi$t giam di cac thang dau miia, tang len cac thang cu6i miia Lupng mua tang 10%, cuong dp mua tang tit 5-10% NhQng di thuong din den lu lut va han han se nhieu hpn, xam nhap man xay manh han o khu vuc dfing bing Miia bap cp thi keo dai them, tan suat bap co the xuat hien thupng xuyen hon, cuong bap cp the manh them Den nam 2070 luong hoc hoi tang len tit 3-8%>: luang mua tang it khong du bii lai lupng nupc bpc hoi da dan den dong chay tren cac spng giam tit 23-40,5%, nhit BAN TIN KHOA HpC VA CONG NGHE TiNH THU'A THIEN HUS, 7/2012 NGHIEN Cl>U - TRI^N KHAI la miia kiet Nhung ddng chay lii Iai ed xu the tang cudng mua tang Mue nude bien dang cao them 3-15cm vao nam 2010 va lOOcm vao nam 2100 lam cho xdi Id, bdi lap bd song, bd bien tang Tac dong cua bien doi hau den su phat trien kinh te-xa hoi vung Bac Trung Bo a) Tdc dpng ciia biin doi hgu din ndng nghiep: Trong Imh vyc ndng nghiep va phat trien ndng thdn, bien ddi hau tac ddng den san xuat ndng nghiep va an ninh luang thuc rat Idn: bien ddng ve dien tich canh tac nudc bien dang (viing ven bien va vimg triing thap), bien ddng ve nang suat cay trdng, thay ddi ca cau, thdi vu cay trdng vat nudi, thay ddi ngudn nudc cho san xuat; bien ddng nang suat san luang cay trdng, vat nudi Khi nudc bien dang cao Im vao nam 2010, khoang tren 7% dien tich ciia vimg bi ngap, khoang tren 10% dien tich dat san xuat ndng nghiep va rirng phdng hd ven sdng, ven bien se bj mat ngap va nhiem man Ngoai ra, mdt sd dien tich dat ndng nghiep ciing phai chuyen myc dich sii dung sang lam nha d, cac cdng trinh cdng cpng de phyc vu cho viee di dan, tai dinh cu cho ngudi dan viing bi ngap, sat Id, viing cd nguy co cao Khi dien tich canh tac bi thu hep, san lupng ndng nghiep san xuat giam, tac ddng tmc tiep den ddi sdng ciia cu dan ndng thdn, keo dai tinh trang ngheo ddi Trong Imh vyc thiiy Igi va tai nguyen nudc, bien ddi hau tao nen su thay ddi ve tai nguyen nudc tgi cac luu vuc sdng, tang luu lugng vao miia lu, khd kiet vao miia khd, lam mat can bang nudc, anh hudng den quy hoach va phat trien he thdng de sdng, de bao, he thong cap thoat nudc, tudi tieu Trong dieu kien khoang tren 70% luong nudc ciia cac sdng khu vyc deu tap trung vao miia mua lu, bien ddi hgu vdi hieu iing la nhiet dp tang cao va myc nudc bien dang se gia tang sy khac biet ve tdng lugng nudc giira hai miia nam Sy can kiet ngudn tai nguyen nudc nggt cac luu vuc sdng vao miia khd kem theo xam nhap man gia tang se gay thieu nudc cho sinh hogt, ndng nghiep va cdng nghiep Trong dd vao miia mua, vdi luu lugng va myc nudc lu Idn se pha vd he thdng de bao, cae cdng trinh co sd hg tang phyc vy cho tudi tieu ndng nghiep, Ddng chay lu gia tang cd kha nang vuot qua cac thdng so thiet ke hd, dap, tac ddng tdi an toan hg dap va quan ly tai nguyen nudc b) Tdc dpng ciia biin doi hgu den ldm nghiep vd da (lang sinh hgc: - Bien dot hgu ldm suy giam quy ddt rimg vd dien tich rimg: Dien tich ning ngap m§n ven bien chiu tdn that to Idn nudc bien dang Nguy co chuyen dich dien tich dat BAN TIN KHOA HpC VA CONG NGHE TJNH THU'A THIEN HUE, 7/2012 NGHIEN CU'U - TRIEN KHAI lam nghiep sang dit danh cho cac hnh vuc khac la tac ddng gian tiep song cd the coi la tac dgng Idn nhat ddi vdi san xuat Iam nghiep - Biin doi hgu ldm thay doi ca cdu td chirc rimg: Nang cao nen nhiet do, lugng mua, luang boc hoi, gia tang bao, cac cue tri nhiet dp, cudng mua va suy giam chi sd im udt - lam ranh gidi giua hau nhiet ddi va ranh gidi nhiet ddi vdi nen nhiet a nhiet ddi, dn ddi deu dieh chuyen len cao, tiic la ve phia dinh niii Rirng cay hg dau md rdng len phia Bic va cac dai eao ban, ning rung la vdi nhieu cay chiu hgn phat trien manh - Biin doi hgu Idm suy gidm chdt lugmg rimg: Phat trien dang ke nhieu sau benh mdi nguy hai ban hoac cac sau benh ngoai lai Cac qua trinh hoang mac hda lam suy giam nghiem trgng chat lugng dat, chi sd am udt giam di gay suy giam sinh khdi tren hau bet cac logi ning, dac biet la rirng san xuat Sd lugng quan the ciia cac loai ddng vat rirng, thuc vat quy hiem giam sut den miic suy kiet dan den nguy ca tijyet chiing - Gia tdng nguy ca chdy rimg nen nhiet cao ban, lugng bdc hoi nhieu han, thdi gian va cudng dd khd hgn gia tang - Bien ddi hgu gay khd khdn cho cdng tdc bdo ton da dgng sinh hgc: Cac bien ddng, cac dieu kien tu nhien va tai nguyen thien nhien bien ddi hau, he sinh thai rirng se bj suy thoai tram trgng, gay nguy co tuyet chiing cua mgt sd loai, lam mat di nhieu gen quy hiem c) Tac dpng cua biin doi hgu den ngdnh thuy sdn: Trong Imh vuc thiiy san tac ddng tdi ngudn lgi thiiy san, dien tich nudi trdng thuy san; den nang suat, san lugng khai thac vit danh bat thuy san Nhiet dp nudc bien tang lam ngudn loi thiiy hai san phan tan Cac loai ca nhiet ddi tang len, trir lugng cac loai hai san cd gia tri kinh te bi giam Hien tuong ENSO tang lam thay ddi vi tri mat dp ca thdng qua cau tnic cac viing nudc va ddng hai luu khac Nudc bien dang se tac dgng manh nhat den he thdng sdng hd, dam pha, dgc biet la cac viing nudi trdng thiiy san Neu muc nudc bien dang cap them Im thi toan bd he thdng bd ngan, de quai hien cd se khdng cdn kha nang sir dung, nhieu dien tich nudi trdng thuy san se chim sau nudc man, Thdi gian anh hudng cua bao keo dai, tan suat xuat hien bao thudng xuyen hon lam giam thdi gian danh bat, chi phi xang dau phdng tranh bao Idn Bao lut pha hogi nhieu ngu cy khai thac cd dinh tren dam pha, biin (nghe nd sao, day, ldng ca ) tang chi phi sua chira Lu lut Idn thudng xuyen xay lam bien ddi ddng chay ddng chay ciia cac viing cita sdng anh hudng den hanh trinh tau thuyen khai thac thiiy san, eac BAN TIN KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE TINH THU'A THIEN HUE, 7/2012 NGHIEN CU'U - TRIEN KHAI ludng di cu sinh tmong ciia ca Thdi tiet biin ddng manh lam anh hudng den miia vu nudi trdng, dich benh phat sinh anh hudng den nang suat nudi trdng Bien doi hau se lam thay ddi mdi trudng tu nhien dan den bien doi da dgng sinh hgc, tap tinh song eua cac loai ddng thye vat thiiy sinh; bien ddng ngudn gidng tu nhien Khi nhiet tang qua cao, ddng vat nudi cac ao hd cd the chet, cham Idn, an kem lam anh hudng den nang suat, san luong, cac chung vi khuan, nam phat trien nhanh, mgnh gay djch benh, gay hien tuong phu dudng ao nudi, sdng hd, dam pha Nhu vay, ndng nghiep va ndng thdn ciia khu vuc Bac Tmng Bg dang va se la Imh vuc chiu anh hudng ciia tac ddng bien ddi hau nang ne nhat tat ca cac Imh vyc kinh te d) Tdc dpng cHo biin doi hgu den ngdnh cdng nghiep: Khu vuc Bac Trung Bd vdn da cd mdt nen nhiet dp tmng binh cao va thudng bien dgng ban nhirng nai khac, nhiet dd tang dan den lupng bdc hai tang ket hop vdi su that thudhg che dd mua lam thay ddi luong du trit va luu lugng ciia cac thiiy dien gay anh hudng den kha nang cung irng va dieu tiet ke hoach san xuat thiiy dien Nhiet tang dan den chi phi lam mat, thdng gid cac nha may san xuat cdng nghiep tang len dang ke nham dam bao siic khde cho ngudi lao ddng, cung nhu bao quan may mdc thiet bi va pham, nguyen vat Ueu lugng tieu thu dien cho sinh hogt va cac nha may san xuat cdng nghiep cung tang nhanh sir dung nhieu thiet bi de lam mat nhu quat dien, may dieu hda nhiet dg, thdng gid dan den su cd ludi dien va cac trgm bien ap xay thudng xuyen vi nhu cau su dung dien vugt qua phu tai ciia cae nha may dien, ddng thdi nhieu co sd san xuat cdng nghiep se bi thieu ngudn dien dn dinh lam cho ca sd san xuat kinh doanh kem hieu qua Theo nhu kjch ban bien ddi hau cho khu vuc, neu nhu myc nude bien dang cao Im, thi he thdng tang ky thuat cac cum cdng nghiep va lang nghe d eac viing ven bien cd nguy eo bi ngap iing, giao thdng bi chia cat khdng the giao luu thugn lgi vdi ben ngoai Mdt sd vimg chuyen canh san xuat nguyen lieu cung cap cho cac ca sd san xuat cdng nghiep (nhu che bien san, cao su ) bj thu hep hoac khdng cdn nua, gay khd khan ve ngudn nguyen lieu cho cac co sd san xuat Cac nha xudng va ca sd tang ciia khu cdng nghiep duoc thiet ke theo tieu chuan hien hanh chua tinh den bien ddi hau nen gap bao manh, mua cudng dd Idn se bi hu hai ho§c nggp lyt e) Tdc dpng cua bien ddi hgu din ngdnh xdy dung vd giao thong van tdi: Viing dong bang ven bien khu vyc Bac Trung Bd chiem khoang 30% dien tich va B A N T I N KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE TINH THU'A THIEN HUE, 7/2012 NGHIEN CU'U - TRIEN KHAI tap trung nhieu dd thj vira va nhd, mat dan cu ddng, thudng xuyen bi anh hudng cda bao lut, ngap iing cang tram trgng Trong nhiing nam tdi, bien ddi haU, luong mua va ddng chay cd the tang cao, nhung cd cac hd thugng ngudn dieu tilt nen lii khdng cdn ac liet nhu nhiing nam vira qua Tuy nhien, nim khu vuc thip trung nen nudc bien dang cao mdt sd dd thi ven bien bi ngap lau ban tmdc nudc lu khdng thoat kip Nudc bien dang se de doa cac cdng trinh cdng nghiep, giao thdng vgn tai, an ninh quoc phdng dugc tiiiet ke theo miic hien tai anh hudng dp ben cua cdng trinh Tac ddng ciia nudc bien dang gay xdi Id khu vuc dan cu ven bien lam mat nha ciia ciia nhan dan Dien tich khu dan cu ven bd bi thu hep Tan suat anh hudng ciia bao tang, cudng dp ciia bao manh hon se vugt qua tieu chuan thiet ke hien hanh, gay hy hai cdng trinh Trong Imh vyc giao thdng van tai, anh hudng cita bien ddi hau kha ro net Theo kich ban bien ddi hgu, den nam 2100 muc nudc bien dang cao them Im so vdi hien nay, dieu lam cho cac hai cang bao gdm cau tau, nha kho, ben bai dugc thiet ke theo muc nudc.bien hien tgi se phai dugc nang cap de chiu dung dudc che sdng gid Cac tuyen dudng giao thdng nam sat bien se bi anh hudng Mua vdi cudng dp mgnh lam cho cdng thoat nudc thiet ke theo tieu chuan cii khdng dam bao, gay ngap ling cue bd Mua lu cdn gay lu quet, sat Id dat pha huy cac cdng trinh giao thdng nhu cau cdng, dudng bd, dudng sat Sat Id dat cdn gay ach tae giao thdng, nhat la tuyen dudng Hd Chi Minh, cac tuyen qudc Id theo hudng ddng-tay va tinh Id Mua lii ciing la nguyen nhan lam tang chi phi tu bao duong va sua chiia cac cdng trinh giao thdng, lam cham tien dd xay dung cac cdng trinh nam quy hogch Cac tuyen dudng thap d ddng bang ngap sau ban, thdi gian ngam nudc lau ban, cac ket cau mat dudng nhua bi pha hdng rat nhanh va nhieu ban Cac tuyen dudng mien mii, viing cao bi sat Id mai taluy cang nghiem trgng, he thdng ciu, cong cang td de bi pha hogi va qua tai ve chirc nang thoat nudc, thoat lu Su xudng cip cua he thdng cau dudng va nhirng su cd miia mua la can trd Idn ddi vdi mang vgn tai, luu thdng Trong miia mua lii nhieu noi bi cd lap, khdng the tiip can j) Tdc dpng cua biin doi hgu din nganh du lich: Du lich la mdt nganh kinh te tdngTigp, cd tinh lien viing, lien nganh va tinh xa hdi hda rat cao; mot qudc gia, viing lanh thd cd tai nguyen du Hch mudn phat triin nhanh va ben virng phy thudc rat nhiiu vao nhiing yeu td tac ddng, dieu kien tu nhien-ma van de dia hinh va hgu la vd cung quan trgng Bien ddi hgu tac ddng manh me den ca ba yiu to bin' viing vl kinh te, ben virng ve xa hdi va bin BAN TIN KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE TfNH THI>A THIEN HUE, 7/2012 NGHIEN CUTJ - TRIEN KHAI vung ve tai nguyen thien nhien va dieu kien tu nhien va dd gian tiip tac ddng den su nghiep phat trien du lich Thi trudng khach se cd nhiing xao ddng nghiem trgng: Tir tmdc din nay, thi trudng khach truyen thdng ciia du lich viing la tir cac nudc Tay Au, Bic My; mac dil nhirng nam trd lai day da cd hudng chuyen sang cac thi tmdng Ddng Bac A, cac nudc khu vyc ASEAN, theo nhgn dinh thi day la nhiing thi trudng ed miie chi tra cao, nhiing anh hudng eua bien ddi hau se lam giam thu nhap ciia ho va do se lam giam dang ke lugng du khach den tir cac thi trudng tmyen thdng g) Tdc dpng cua bien doi hgu den cugc song vd sue khde cpng dong * Tdc dpng den sire khde cpng ddng: Ket qua nghien cim ve tac ddng ciia bien ddi hau ddi vdi ngudi td chiie Global Humanitarian Forum ciia cuu Tdng Thu ky Lien hiep qudc Kofi Annan vira cdng bd cho biet, hien nay, bien ddi hgu da cudp di mang sdng ciia 300.000 ngudi mdi nam va anh hudng den eudc sdng cua 300 trieu ngudi tren trai dat tac dpng tir nhirng dot nang ndng, lu lut va chay rirng gay Nhiet dp tang lam tang tac dpng tieu cue ddi vdi siic khde ngudi, dan den gia tang mpt sd nguy co doi vdi tudi gia, ngudi mac benh tim mach, benh than kinh Thien tai nhu bao, td, nudc dang, ngap lut, hgn ban, mua Idn va sgt Id dat.,, gia tang ve cudng dp va tan suat lam tang sd ngudi bi thiet mang va anh hudng gian tiep den sire khde thdng qua d nhiem mdi tmdng, suy dinh dudng, benh tat Bien ddi hau lam tang kha nang xay mgt sd benh nhiet ddi nhu sdt ret, sdt xuat huyet, lam tang tdc dg sinh tmdng va phat trien nhieu logi vi khuan va cdn triing, vat chii mang benh, lam tang sd lugng ngudi bi benh nhiem khuan de lay lan * Tdc dpng den ddi sdng vd sinh ke cua ngudi ddn: Bien ddi hau tac dpng den tai san, sinh ke cua ngudi dan tgi khu vyc, dac biet la nhiing vimg ndng thdn, mien niii, ven sdng, ven bien Thien tai, bao lu ap den, khiin ngudi dan noi day khdng nhirng bi mat dat, mat tai san, mat noi cu tni ma ddi sdng ciia hg cung se bi anh hudng rat ngng ne Mat viec lam, mat ke sinh nhai, khdng edn dit dl san xuat, dat bi xam nhap man, nang suat san xuat se giam, ddi hdi phai thay ddi ky thuat san xuat mdi hay thay ddi co cau ddi tuong san xuat theo chieu hudng khdng cd lgi, Ngoai mat tai san, ngudi dan d khu vyc cdn chiu nhung thiet thdi ve eac van de ddi sdng tinh than khac nhu viec hoc hanh, dich vy y le , , nhirng tac dgng cd the lam suy giam kha nang ciia ngudi viec dam bap cugc sdng, vugt qua ddi n^heo BAN TIN KHOA HpC VA CONG NGHE TINH THl^A THIEN H\it 7/2012 NGHIEN CU'U - TRIEN KHAI * Tdc ddng deu xd hpi vdn de ngheo ddi, di ddn va an ninh xd hpi: Bien ddi hau cd the lam cho nen kinh te cham phat trien, ddi sdng va chat lugng cugc sdng ciia ngudi giam di keo theo la su gia tang dan sd, ddng thdi la su mat can ddi ve dan sd se xay Su suy giam dien tich, thieu luang thye, nai d va ngheo kiet tai nguyen thien nhien khien nhieu ngudi ngheo viing ndng thdn, viing ven bien, viing sau bi tdn thuang Dieu khien hien tugng di dan va ddi chd mang tinh CO hoc gia tang neu khdng cd bien phap ddi phd LQ lut hoanhTianh, nudc bien dang cao se lam thu hep dien tich khu dan cu sinh sdng ven bien, ven sdng; true tiep de dga den cude sdng ngudi dan, ngudi dan ngheo noi day, huge ho phai di cu vao sau ndi dja, thi, dan den lam mat ngudn sinh ke va xao trdn cugc sdng ngudi dan Gay hien tuang quy hogch dd thi bj pha vd, mdi tmdng dd thi se bi xau di su gia tang ca hgc ve dan sd, gay khd khan trcng quy hoach sap xep lgi dan cu khac phuc hau qua khu vuc bj thien tai va phdng tranh thien tai Ket Iuan Trong nhirng thap men trd "lai day, bien ddi hgu loan cau da gay nhiing tac ddng tmc tiep hay gian tiep den mdi trudng sdng, den phat trien kinh te-xa hgi, ddi sdng ciia ngudi mdt each rd net Bien ddi hau va nudc bien dang da va dang tac dpng din vin dl phat trien kinh tl-xa hdi ciia cac tinh khu vuc Bic Tmng Bg, NIU cac cap, cac nganh, cac dia phuang khdng cd nhirng chinh sach, chien lupc va giai phap hop ly phdng tranh va thich iing vdi bien ddi hau thi nhirng nam tdi miic anh hudng den cac linh vuc kinh te-xa hdi se cao han, thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi giam, ty le hd ngheo tang len, tinh trang ddi kem, thieu luong thuc se thudng xuyen, d nhiem mdi tmdng, dich benh lay lan khdng the kiem soat dugc De img phd vdi bien ddi hau va nudc bien dang cho cac dia phuang khu vuc can sdm trien khai thuc hien cac chuang trinh, kl hoach hanh ddng iing phd vdi biin ddi hau nham hing bude danh gia dugc nhiing tac dgng tdi tirng nganh, tirng ITnh vyc mdt each chi tiet va loan dien hon Khi cd nhiing danh gia chi tilt cho tirng nganh, Imh vuc ve bien ddi hau se gdp phan giiip cho nganh, ITnh vuc va ban chi dgo cd dugc nhirng giai phap img phd va thich iing toan dien ve nhiing tac ddng ciia biin ddi hau tdi cac nganh, phan kinh te cho mdi dia phuang va ca khu vuc nhim phat triin kinh te theo hudng da myc tieu va thich irng duoc vdi biin ddi hau va nudc biin dang Truong Dinh Trong (Tmdng Dai hoc Khoa hpc Hui) ^ BAN TIN KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE TINH THU'A THIEN HUE, 7/2012 ... nhiing tac ddng tieu cue gdp phan thiic day phat trien kinh te-xa hdi ben virng cho viing Bac Tmng Bd Kich ban bien doi Ichi hau a khu vuc Bac Trung Bo Dua tren tai lieu "Kjch ban bien ddi hau va... 2020 2030 2040 2050 Bac Trung Bo 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 2060 2070 2080 1.6 1,7 2090 2100 1.9 1,9 1,8 - Sir gia tdng nhiet dp so vdi thai ky 1980 - 1999 theo kich ban plidl thdi trung binh (B Cac moc thoi... gian ciia the ky XXI Viing 2020 2030 2040 2050 Bac Trung Bo 1,5 2,2 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 4,3 4,7 4,9 5,0 5,0 3,8 3,1 - 77760 kich ban phdt thdi trung binh (B2): Vao cudi the ki XXI, lugng mua