KINH TE QUAN LY D A U KHI DANH GlA, XEP HANG CAC DIT A N CHE BIEN SAU KHI ThS Trin Nam Thanh, KS Tran H6ng Loan Viin Ddu khf Viet Nam Tom tat Trong bdi bdo nay, nhom tdc gid gidi thieu ket qud nghien[.]
KINH TE - QUAN LY D A U KHI DANH GlA, XEP HANG CAC DIT A N CHE BIEN SAU KHI ThS Trin Nam Thanh, KS.Tran H6ng Loan Viin Ddu khf Viet Nam Tom tat Trong bdi bdo nay, nhom tdc gid gidi thieu ket qud nghien cdu ve ddnh gid, xep hang cdc dddn che bien sdu dda tren tieu chi hieu qud kinh te the hien qua gid toi da chdp nhan dddc vd ty soNPV/Tong mdc ddu td Ket qud nghien cdu cho thay hddng sdn xuat methanol trdc tiep td thien nhien co hieu qud cao nhdt, tiep theo Id dimethyl ether va ammonia Cdc olefins (ethylene, propylene) dddc sdn xuat theo cong nghe MTO/MTP cd hieu qud kinh tecao han so vdi sdn xuat bdng cracking hdi nddc ethane hay propane Dong thdi, nhdm tdc gid de xuat xdy ddng to hdp cdc dddn che bien sdu tgi khu vdc mien Trung, nhdm sddung hieu qud nguon khitdmo Cd Vol Xanh, khicd ham Iddng CO^ cao l/dc tinh lai nhugn cua cdc to hap dao dpng td 0,29 - 0,34USD/m^ thien nhien, cao gdp 10 Idn lai nhugn cua cdc dddn sdn xuat nhiet dien Tdkhoa: Che bien sdu khf, hda ddu tdkhf, mo Cd VoiXanh, MTO, MTP, khfthiin nhiin ddpc thgc hien nham xie djnh cac dg i n che bien sau Gidi thieu khf va d i n h g i i , xep hang cic d g i n chu yeu theo Ngay 24/10/2013, Viet Nam dat mdc khai thic 90 ty m^ khf Sin lapng khai thac khf eCia Tap doan Dau Quoc gia Viet Nam (Petrovietnam) dat 9,75 ty m^ (nam 2013) [1] va dg kien se tang len 14 ty m^ vao nam 2018 Khf thien nhien khai thac nddc chu yeu ddpc sd dung de sin xuat dien (84%) va dam (11%), song chda ddpc sddung de sin xuat cac sin pham hda dau khic mang lai gia trj gia tang Trong nhiem ky 2011 2013, Hdi dong Khoa hpc Cdng nghe Tap doan Dau khf Quoc gia Viet Nam da ed hieu q u i kinh te, the hien d g i i khf toi da dg i n cd the chap nhan ddpc ma d g an van dat yeu cau ve hieu qua kinh te tai chfnh Danh gia, xep hang cac dU an che bien sau 2.1 Phddng phdp lugn nghien cdu Viec xay dgng quy hoach tong the nganh cdng nghiep hda dau t d khf can theo cic bade nhd Hlnh nghj quyet xay dgng quy hoach ve viec sd dung 20% Nhdm t i c g i i sd dung phdPng phap luan nhd Hlnh tong sin Idpng khf thien nhien khai t h i c hang nam de xie djnh cic dg i n theo hddng de xuat cic dg an hoa cho cdng nghiep hda dau Lanh dao Tap doan Dau khf dau t d khf ed hieu q u i kinh te cao, d i p dng thj trddng Viet Nam chi dao Trung tam Nghien cdu va Phit trien nadc va cd the xuat khau Che bien Dau khf (PVPro) -Vien Dau khf Viet Nam (VPI) thadng xuyen cap nhat tinh hlnh, sap xep cic dg i n che bien sau khf theo thd t g du tien ve hieu q u i kinh te [2] Viec nghien cdu, danh g i i tong the va xep hang cac Bddc 1: Xie djnh cic sin pham nghien cdu sin xuat ddpc t d khf thien nhien (khf khd thapng pham) Cac sin pham hda dau sin xuat t d khf thien nhien dg i n che bien sau khf giup Tap doan Dau khf Viet Nam Cic y&i to ndi tai (dilm manh, diem y^u, muc ti^u phittriln) cd djnh hddng dung dan ve viec dau t d sin xuat cic sin pham hda dau nham nang cao gia trj gia tang cho nguon nguyen lieu khf thien nhien cua Viet Nam va cung cap CP sd khoa hpc de Chfnh phu xem xet, du tien mot phan ngudn khf cho p h i t trien cdng nghiep hda dau - hddng di NghlSn ciJu hudng sdn xuKt, dinh gici, xlph?ngrfcdiran sin xuKt mang lai hieu q u i kinh te cao Mot sd nghien cdu trade day tap trung de xuat cic Gicri han ve von d i u tU, nguyen lieu Gioti han v^ thj trifdng sin pham, nguyen lieu Cic yeu td b@n ngoii (coh6i,thichthiJfc) sin pham hda dau t d ed dp rui ro ve thj trddng thap (chu yeu dap dng thj trddng nddc), song cd the bd qua mot sd dg an cd hieu q u i kinh te cao ma thj trddng nddc chda ed nhu cau hoac nhu eau thap Nghien cdu "Dinh g i i , xep hang cic dg an che bien sau khf" 46 DAU KHi-SO 9/2014 Phin cong vi$c duoc thac hi6n d^ t i i Hinh Quy trinh thac hien xdy dang quy hogch ngdnh nghiep che bien sdu PETROVIETNAM r BiKircl To hqip dy BmVc q u i kinh te (IRR > IRR^J va ehi tieu "NPV/Tong mdc dau Xu hudng thi tru I'm" * Khi ihien nhien •i Cong ngh? thuong mai t g ' de xac djnh hieu q u i thu dapc t d mot dPn vj chi phf San pham ngiiien ciiu dau td Ket q u i cua bade la b i n g xep hang tdcao den CSDL quy trinh san xuat To h(prp dupc de xuat sin pham va gida cac sin pham tdcung mot nguyen lieu Gia loi dy NPV'Dau in # Buoc Bing xep hang da khai q u i t ve hieu q u i kinh te gida cae sin pham vdi nhau, gida cac hadng sin xuat cung mot ilicu qua kiiih ic CSDL dia diem KQ xep hang san pham thap eua tat c i cic dg an sin xuat ddpc t d khf thien nhien Mo litnh kinh iC" Hieu qua kinh tc Gidi iian OMCS va nguyen lieu Bddc 5:Thanh lapva de xuat to hpp dgan Nhdm t i e g i i lap to hpp sin xuat cic d g i n sin xuat cic sin pham che bien sau khf vdi muc tieu tdi da hda Bu^'c Hinh Quy trinh thac hien nghiin cdu eua de tdi dapc xie djnh dga tren cae quy trinh cdng nghe sin xuat hieu q u i kinh te va dam b i o mot so tieu chf bat bupe nha: khdng vapt q u i gidi han tieu thu nguyen lieu khf thien nhien, khdng sin xuat dd thda cic sin pham khdng ed da thdPng mai hda theo tai lieu The Process Economics k h i nang van chuyen de tieu thu hoac thieu cic nguyen Program Yearbook International 2008 (PEP Yearbook lieu khdng the mua/nhap khau Viec de xuat cic to hpp 2008) [3] Vdi djnh hddng vda dap dng nhu cau nadc sin xuat gan lien vdi viec de xuat dja diem phij hpp vda hddng den xuat khau, cac sin pham se dapc tiep tuc nghien cdu so bp xu hadng thj tradng va ngoai 2.2 Nguon cung nguyen lieu Viet Nam [5,6,7] nddc, loai bd cic sin pham ed xu hadng sd dung g i i m Can cdtren dd lieu hien cd ve ngudn cung va nhu cau tfnh dpc hai hoac ddpc thay the bang cac sin pham khic tieu thu khf phan theo vijng mien tai Viet Nam, viec can cd du diem hPn ddi cung cau, phan tfch va danh gia ve kha nang cung cap Bddc 2: Xie djnh cic dg i n sin xuat cic sin pham da ddpc Iga chpn khf cho tdng khu vgc theo djnh hddng sau: Khu vgc Ddng Nam Bp dg kien nam 2025 se thieu Td nguon d d lieu hpn 1.000 quy trinh sin xuat dpn le khf Khu vgc Tay Nam Bd dd khoing t d 10 - 300 trieu m^ ddpc cung cap tai lieu PEP Yearbook 2008, nghien khf giai doan 2014 - 2023 doi vdi kich b i n cP sd, t d cdu tien hanh x i e djnh cic dg i n sin xuat cic sin pham 10 - 74 trieu m^ khf va gan 300 - 560 trieu m^ khf tdPng dng ddpc Iga chpn vdi nguyen lieu gdc la khf thien nhien Do vdi cac giai doan 2014 - 2017 va 2019 - 2024 ddi vdi kjch mot sin pham ed the ddpc sin xuat t d nhieu hadng khic b i n tiem nang, do: (vf du ethylene cd the ddpc sin xuat trgc tiep t d khf thien nhien hoac t d methanol) va mot hddng sin xuat + Kjch b i n co sd: gom tat c i ngudn cung cap khf hien hdu; cd the ed nhieu b i n quyen cdng nghe khic nen so lapng d g i n dapc xie djnh rat Idn (hPn 23.000 dg an) De xac djnh chfnh xie va day du cae dg i n , nhdm t i c g i i da lap trinh va sddung phan mem tren may tfnh dethge hien ghep c i c quy trinh cac chuoi dg i n Bade 3: Tfnh toan hieu q u i kinh te cua cac dg i n + Kjch ban tiem nang: kjch b i n cP sd cdng them mot so ngudn khf se bo sung tdPng lai Ddi vdi khu vgc mien Trung, dga tren cP sd ke hoach p h i t trien khf md Ca Vol Xanh, sin Idpng khf d g kien trung binh t d - ty mVnam, bat dau khai t h i c t d nam 2020 [7] Md hlnh tai chinh ddpc xay dgng de tfnh t o i n hieu q u i kinh te eua cae d g an Cac so lieu ve tong mdc dau td, tieu hao nguyen lieu, tien leh va s i n lapng cac sin pham tren cd sd nguon tai lieu PEP Yearbook 2008 Cic chi tieu ty suat hoan von npi tai (IRR), gia trj hien tai thuan (NPV), NPV tai mdc IRR^.^ ddpc tfnh toan va xem xet de danh g i i hieu q u i kinh te eua cic d g an [4] Bade 4: Xep hang cac dg an Viec xep hang cae dgan ddpc thgc hien dga tren chi Doi vdi khu vgc mien Bac, ngudn khf t d dg an Thii Binh giai doan 2014 - 2024 vdi sin Idpng cung cap la 200 - 500 trieu m^ khf/nam da cd ke hoach cung cap cho khach hang cdng nghiep tai khu vgc Tien H i i (tinh Thii Binh) va phan phoi cho cac khich hang tai cac vung lan can bang cdng nghe CNG [5,6] Tinh hlnh cung - eau khf cho thay, mien Trung la khu vgc cd nhieu tiem nang cho viec phat trien nganh cdng nghiep che bien sau khf d Viet Nam tieu:"gia khf toi da chap nhan 6dgc"di d g i n van dat hieu DAU KHi - s o 9/2014 47 KINH TE - QUAN LY DAU KHI 2.3 Ddnh gid, xep hang cdc dddn che bien sdu Tren co sd dd lieu cua hon 1.000 quy trinh sin xuat t d PEP Yearbook 2008, ket hpp vdi nghien cdu xu hadng Theo ket q u i tfnh t o i n hieu q u i kinh te, hddng san xuat methanol t d khf se cho hieu q u i tot hpn so vdi cac sin pham khac nhd DME, ammonia, ethylene va acetylene phat trien cua cic sin pham, nhdm t i c g i i da xie djnh va Nhdm t i c g i i kien nghj Tap doan Dau khf Viet Nam tfnh t o i n hieu q u i kinh te cho 156 sin pham ddpc sin xem xet cic d g i n che bien sau khf dem lai gia trj gia tang xuat t d khf thien nhien vdi hPn 360 hddng sin xuat t d cao t d nguon nguyen lieu khf nadc Trong dd tieu 23.000 quy trinh che bien sau khf chive hieu q u i kinh te se au tien xem xet de danh gia,xep Tham khio sd lieu thdng ke cua PEP Yearbook 2008 va de tai "Nghien cdu djnh hadng sin xuat cic sin pham hda dau tai Viet Nam (chat trung gian, sin pham cuoi) t d nguon hang cae dg i n the hien qua: gia khf dau vao cao nhat ma tai hieu q u i kinh te eua d g an van d i m b i o IRR > IRR hoac NPV|p^^._^ > 0; ty sd NPV/Tong mdc dau td Phaong phap d i n h g i i , xep hang: Nhdm t i e gia sOf nguyen lieu khf giai doan 2011 2025" nam 2010, g i i khf thien nhien i p dung de tfnh toan cho cic d g i n la 8,3 USD/ dung phapng p h i p cham diem theo thang diem 10 va trieu Btu, gia ethane va propane la 830 USD/tan [3,8] tfnh trung binh ed trpng so, do: ehi tieu gia khf toi Hieu q u i kinh te eua cic hda chat dapc sin xuat trgc tiep t d khf thien nhien the hien qua g i i khf tdi da chap 10 Methanol # DME Theo dd, s i n pham elastomer polyolefin (POE) co Ammonia hieu q u i kinh te cao nhat the hien qua g i i khf toi da chap Q (trpng sd 30%) Hlnh la mot sd hddng s i n xuat cac sin pham co hieu q u i kinh te cao nhat t d khf thien nhien thdng qua sin xuat methanol nhan the hien d Hlnh - da (trpng sd 70%); chi tieu ty so NPV/Tong mdc dau tir nhan ddpc cao nhat vdi 10,4USD/trieu Btu, tiep theo la ' B Ethylene eyclohexanol (10,1USD/trieu Btu), polyetheretherketone (9,9USD/trieu Btu), propylene glycol ethers (9,7USD/trieu Btu), 2-Ethylhexyl diphenyl phosphate (9,3USD/trieu Btu), g-4 -6 Acetylene 2-Ethylhexyl acrylate (9,2USD/trieu Btu), acetic anhydride, isopropanol (9,1USD/trieu Btu), N-Butanol (9USD/trieu -8 Btu), acetaminophen (8,9USD/trieu Btu), ethylene glycol Hinh Gid khf tdi da eua ede sdn pham sdn xuat trt/c tiep tdkhi T-butyl ether (8,6USD/trieu Btu) thien nhiin De tang hieu q u i cua viec sCf dung cic s i n pham trung gian, nhdm t i e g i i da nghien cdu to hpp Cyclohocinol cic d g i n sin xuat MTP (methanol to propylene) va MTO (methanol to olefins) Trong cic hddng sin xuat ethylene va propylene, hddng sin xuat t d methanol cho hieu q u i kinh Ethylene Qlycol T-Butyl thihinhien ^*" te cao hPn so vdi hddng sin xuat trdc tiep t d ethane va propane De xuat cac to horp dU an che bien sau Khi de xuat cic dg an, nhdm tac g i i xem xet cac tieu chf bat bupc ve nguyen lieu va sin pham gonn: Phenol r Etkylene Oxide khong s i n xuat thda cac sin pham khong the/khd van chuyen Hinh Hadng sdn xuat cdc sdn pham dat hieu qud kinh tecao 48 Diu KHi-so 9/2014 qua trinh tieu thu hoac ed tfnh dpc PETROVIETNAM hai, khdng the tieu thu tren thj trddng; khdng de thieu ethylene nhdng cdng nghe MTP chi tao propylene, cac nguyen lieu khdng the/khd mua/nhap khau tren thj hddng cdng nghe MTO tao c i propylene va trddng; chi sin xuat vda du cic sin pham trung gian lam ethylene nen ket q u i danh g i i xep hang cac to hpp cho g i i m g i i trj nguon khf thay to hpp sin xuat theo cdng nghe MTP cd g i i khf toi da Dong thdi, nhdm t i e g i i xem xet cac gidi han thj trddng ve nguyen lieu, sin pham, von dau td.Tuy nhien, chap nhan ddpc va NPV/Tong mdc dau tdthap nhat cac to hpp bai viet nay, cic sin pham ed djnh hddng xuat Trong hai to hpp sin xuat theo cdng nghe MTO, to khau nen gidi han ve nguyen lieu va sin pham cua thj hpp MTO-1 sin xuat sin pham elastomer polyolefin ed trddng npi dja chda dapc danh g i i mot each day du hieu q u i kinh te cao nhat bing xep hang cic dg Tren cP sd xep hang cua hPn 360 hddng sin xuat, an nhdng sin pham ddi hdi phii cd c i nguyen lieu nhdm t i e g i i de xuat to hpp dg i n che bien sau ethylene va propylene nen xet c i to hpp dg i n thi to (Bing 2): hpp MTO-2 cd g i i khf toi da chip nhan ddpc cao hPn.Tuy To hpp MTP: sin xuat propylene theo cdng nghe MTP va cic sin pham t d propylene; nhien, diem NPV/Tong mdc dau t d cua to hpp MTO-2 thap hon so vdi MTO-1 vl chi phf dau t d cua to hpp MTO-2 cao hon 53% so vdi ehi phf dau t d cua to hpp MTO-1 To hpp MTO-1: sin xuat propylene/ethylene theo NPV chi cao hon 31 % so vdi NPV eua MTO-1 cdng nghe MTO, polyolefin elastomer va cic sin pham t d Vdi viec dg tfnh sd dung nguon md Ca Vol Xanh ethylene; chda ham Idpng CO^ cao thi hddng sin xuat methanol se To hpp MTO-2: sin xuat propylene/ethylene theo cdng nghe MTO va cic sin pham t d propylene/ethylene Vdi g i i trj gia tang cua cic sin pham dem lai, to hpp MTP v i n dat hieu q u i kinh te vdi g i i khf tdi da la 12,4USD/ trieu Btu cd hieu q u i hon (khi sd dung cdng nghe reforming mot lan (one-step reforming), g i i m 5-10% chi phf nang Idpng va ehi phf dau tdthap) Trong tradng hpp dg an dddng dng dan khf t d md C i Vol Xanh dda vao khu vgc Ddng Nam Bd, ed the dapc xem Do ethylene oxide (ddthda sau sin xuat ethylene xet dat cic nha may che bien sau khf tai Khu cdng nghiep glycol) khd van chuyen nen se ddpc chuyen hda Phu My Tuy nhien, gia khf nguyen lieu dau vao tai Phii ethylene carbonate Mac dCi viec sin xuat ethylene My se cao hon so vdi khu vgc mien Trung khoing 2,3USD/ carbonate se lam g i i m g i i trj nguon khf Tuy nhien, hieu trieu Btu - tdong dapng vdi chi phf van chuyen khf t d nha q u i kinh te eua to hpp MTO-1 van d i m b i o g i i khf d m i y GPP mien Trung den Phu My [7] mdc 13,6 USD/trieu Btu Khi xem xet hieu q u i kinh te cua cac to hpp dg an de To hpp MTO-2 van sin xuat ethylene carbonate de xuat tai gia khf bang vdi gia khf trung binh ap dung cho d i m b i o tieu thu het Idpng ethylene oxide cdn da sau sin xuat dien la 10,68USD/trieu Btu, ket q u i tfnh toan sin xuat ethylene glycol.To hpp MTO-2 van d i m b i o hieu cho thay Ipi nhuan sd dung khf thien nhien cho cae d g q u i kinh te g i i khf d mdc 15,2USD/trieu Btu i n che bien sau khf dat tao,29 - 0,34USD/m3 khf, cao gap Tuy hddng sin xuat cic sin pham t d propylene ed nhieu sin pham ed hieu q u i hon hddng sin xuat t d 10 lan so vdi Ipi nhuan sd dung khf cho sin xuat dien (0,02USD/m3) Bdng Ket qud phdn tich hieu qud kinh tecua ethylene vd propylene Nguyen lieu Khi thien nhien Cong suat (nghln tan/nam) Tong muTc dau t u (trieu Ethylene Khf - methanol - ethylene 255 Ethylene Khf-ethylene Sdn pham Chuoi quy trinh NPViRRmin Gia toi da (USD/trieu Btu) IRR (trieu USD) 1.566 7% -457 6,41 255 2.458 -5% -1.710 0,86 usoi Ethane Ethylene Ethane - ethylene 255 917 -17% -770 3,89 i Propane Ethylene Propane - ethylene 255 1.118 N/A -1.382 4,24 I Khf thi§n nhien Propylene Khf - methanol - propylene 465 1.309 11% -69 8,00 Propylene Propane - propylene 465 979 N/A -953 5,23 ^ Propane ; DAU KHi so 9/2014 / 49 KINH TE - QUAN LY DAU KHI Bdng Ddnh gid hieu qud kinh tecua cdc to hgp dadn che bien sdu khf I To hop Cong suat (nghln tan/nam) Sdn pham Cyclohexanol Acetone (san pham phu) Propylene glycol ethers ^r^pylene glycol Polypropylene Elastomer polyolefin Chloroprene Ethylene glycol t-butyl Ether Ethylene glycol[ Ethylene carbonate Cyclohexanol Acetone (san pham phy) Chloroprene Ethylene glycol t-butyl Ether Ethylene glycol Ethy|ene^arbonate MTP MTO-1 MTO-2 LUtfng sCrdung (tym^) Gia toi da (USD/trieu Btu) 3.720 16,8% 977 1,5 12,4 3.390 13,7% 238 1,4 13,6 5.178 13,6% 347 1,4 15,2 191 133 90 180 250 330 II 100 90 2, IJ 24 ^^ 150 rio joq^ ^ 90 J24 1^80 240 Vinyl acetate •b IRR NPViRRmin (trieu USD) Tong muTc dautu (trieu USD) I §• 12 S-2 10 e ca & A "£ ^ 15 13 ^ 11 S = -1 ô9 C>< ãc/c 'f^'e/5 c-o/ 15 Nhdm tic gii da xie djnh va tfnh toan hieu qui kinh te cho 156 sin pham ddpc sin xuat td khf thien nhien vdi hPn 360 hadng sin xuat td 23.000 quy trinh che bien sau khf va rut mot so ket luan sau: Trong cic hddng sin xuat trgc tiep td khf thien nhien (ammonia, methanol, ethylene, acetylene va dimethyl ether), hddng sin xuat methanol cd hieu qui cao nhat, sau dd den dimethyle ether va ammonia); -2 ^ ^ ^ > ^ ^ ''^^y^en - - ^ " " ^ / f i?A 'er ^ •t^ 'P/-5 Hinh Gid tri gia tdng nguon eua cdc sdn pham to hgp MTO-1 50 "^sfo,>, Ket luan 18 16 14 12 10 « O ^f'ly/B,, Hin/i G/d trig/a tdng nguon eua ede sdn pham to hop MTO-2 Hinh Gid tri gia tdng ngudn cua ede sdn pham td hgp MTP ^f'jy/pn ^ ff/)e/- ^^o, %A '°^'^*^>% / VB "orn„ ^'''y/po Diu KHi-so 9/2014 Cic olefins (ethylene, propylene) ddpc sin xuat theo cdng nghe MTP/MTO ed hieu qui kinh te cao hdn so vdi hddng sin xuat cracking hPi nadc ethane hoac propane; PETROVIETNAM Bdng Ddnh gid, xep hang ede to hgp dadn To hop _MTP MTO-1 MTO-2 Diem gia Diem NPV/Tong muTc ~~ ^i.'.J,"' dautu Diem trung binh 1,0 6,3 8,1 100 1,7 10,0 'jjstsc^samy^