NBIBENCIIU THABBBI AN NINH NGUON NlTflTC VAN DE AN NINH PHI TRUYEN THONG (ky 2 tiep theo so 218) An ninh ngudn nffdc ddl vdi Viet Nam hien nay Xuat phit tff nhieu nguydn nhdn khae nhau khieh quan v i[.]
NBIBENCIIU-THABBBI AN NINH NGUON NlTflTC VAN DE AN NINH PHI TRUYEN THONG (ky 2-tiep theo so 218) PHAM THANH DUNG' n ninh ngudn nffdc ddl vdi Viet Nam bat Ipi Idn vide ehu ddng, quan ly, s i dung ngudn nude, phdng ngira, ngan chan ed hidu qua hien Xuat phit tff nhieu nguydn nhdn khae nguy cd, hd luy khffng hoang ngudn nude giy khieh quan v i ehff quan, theo du bio, tdi nguydn Cd thd du bio nhffng nguy eo thich thffc ve nude effa Vidt Nam cd xu hudng suy thoii Quin an ninh ngudn nude d Vidt Nam: Mpt la, trdn 60% ddng ehiy sdng ngdi l i Vi ly, sff dyng tap ly ed hidu qui ngudn nude cd y nghla quan trpng dim bio sy phit fiidn ben vffng ngudn nude ngoii linh thd Viet Nam Vidt Nam cua qudc gia Tuy nhidn, theo du dodn ddn nam cd khoing 206 eon sdng Idn nhd, dd cd 126 2025 ngudn nude Vidt Nam se bj glim di khoing sdng ed ngudn tff nude ngoii ehiy vio ndi 40 ty m', lupng nude mua khd ed the glim di dja, 76 eon sdng tff nude ehiy nude khoing 13 ty m' Trong dd nhu cau vd phit khie, v i cd sdng ehiy vio nhung sau tridn kinh td - xd hdl, sffe dp ve gia tang ddn sd, lai chay Bac biet, nude ta ed luu vye sdng la chat lupng cudc sdng ngudi din, sy tdc ddng d luu vye lidn qudc gia nhu: Sdng Md Kdng, sdng nhidm mdi tmdng, bien ddi hau dpi hdi nhu Hdng, sdng Bang Giang, sdng Ma, sdng Ci, sdng eau sff dung nude tang Ien c i ve sd lupng vd da Bdng Nai Tdng luijing ddng ehiy hing nam co dang vd chat lupng Vidt Nam dang thyc hidn 60% l i tff cic nffdc lang gidng chay vdo Vidt Nam CNH,HDH dat nude, mpt trang nhffng nhidm vy nhff Tmng Qudc, Thai Lan, Lao, Mlanma, trung tdm Id CNH,HDH ndng nghiep, ndng thdn Campuehia Q u i trinh quan ly, sff dung ngudn nhu cau, sffe ep dim bap ngudn nude hdt sffe Idn nude phyc vy phit tridn kinh td - xd hdi (cdng edng vdi nhu eau dim bao ddng ehiy tri mdi nghiep hda, phat trien ndng nghidp, dd Uij hda, trudng sinh thii du mffa khd eung rat Idn thuy nang ) d eac nude thupng ngudn da va (khoing 4.300 m'/s) Tdng lupng nude mat trdn dang gay khd khan, bat Ipi che Vidt Nam Cic linh thd Mdt Nam khoing 830 ty m' dupe tap dap thuy didn da vd du kidn xdy dyng d Tmng trung d 13 luu vuc sdng Idn l i : Sdng Hong, sdng Qudc, Lao, Campuehia se Id mdi de dpa Idm Ma, sdng Thdi Binh, sdng Bd, sdng Ld, sdng glim sut ngudn nude, ngudn cd, phff sa, hd sinh Bang Giang, sdng C i , sdng Thu Bdn, sdng Ba, thii ddi vdi Vidt Nam Tdng lupng nude mua sdng Bong Nai, sdng Sd San, sdng Srepok, sdng eua Viet Nam l i cap nhung phin bd khdng ddng Cffu Long Trong dd, 40''/o lupng nude hing deu vd thdl gian v i khdng gian Cd nhffng viing nam phdt sinh ngoal lanh thd Vidt Nam, d i y l i su Iffpng mffa hing nam rat tidp ehi tff 400700mm/nim (Phan Rang, Phan Ri) nhung c6 vffng lupng mua rat cao Idn ddn 8000mm/nani A * Phd Gido sU, Tien si Hoc vi^n Chinh tri Ithu vuc I 30 TAP CHl G I A O D y e LY LUAN - s 220 (2014) NBHIEN CUU-THAO BOI (Bach Ma, Thffa Thidn - Hud) Lupng mua hing suy g i i m nghiem fi-png T i i nguydn nude Viet nam phdn bd khdng ddng ddu vd mat thdi gian Nam dang t'dn d i suy thoii, ttiidu hut khdng chi Chi ridng Ddng bang sdng Cffu Long mua khd ve sd lupng ma ea ve chat lupng rwiijc Do i p lye kdo d i i thdng nam, lupng mua ehi chidm tang d i n sd, phit tridn cdng nghiep, ndng nghiep, 10%, edn mua mua kec ddi thing lupng mua d i m b i o an ninh ning lupng, an ninh luong chidm 90% trpng nam, 75-85% tdng lupng ddng thue d i e bidt la quin ly nha nude vd kinh td - xa ehiy trcng n i m t i p trung v i o mua mua IQ, edn iai hdi, thidu ddng bd, kdm hidu q u i dd ed chla cliO c i c thing nam Cd thd ndi, d i y Id q u i n ly tdi nguyen rimg, tdi nguyen nuillc Dien bat Ipi Idn ddi vdi chung ta b'png vide q u i n ly, dieu hinh Id su phdt trien thuy nang, ede cdng trinh tidt sff dung ed hidu qua ngudn nui5e, xuat hidn thffy didn vffa vd nhd d mien Tmng nhffng n i m ehdnh Ideh cung v i eau, thffa vd thidu giffa eae vffa qua d i v i dang dd lai hd q u i khdn ludng Tai vffng mien, vd thdl glan vd khdng gian Vi dy: nguyen nurjc tren eae ddng sdng eoi nhu dd dupe sdng Md Kdng la he thdng sdng Idn nhat Vidt dua vao sff dung g i n hdt eho thffy didn (80% Nam chidm g i n 60% tdng \\sar\g mffa qudc gia, ngudn trff Iffpng thiiy ning trdn eie ddng sdng Idn gdp 54 Ian Iffpng mua vung Bdng Bie; Lupng nhd dupe khai thic hoae dua vao quy hoaeh khai nude mua mua Kdng Idn tdi thac) Trong n i m 2012 ed 48,26% cdng suat 40.000m'/gidy nhffng mua khd xudng thap ddn 43,9% didn nang eho he thdng didn eua nude ta IQ sdng Me 1.200-1.700m'/giiy tao ndn tinh trang Iff nang ve l i ddng gdp cua thuy didn C i c hd ehffa thuy dien mua mua, ban hin,.xam nhap man ve miia khd chidm khoing 86% lupng dung tieh eie hd Nhldu eon sdng d Viet Nam khdng cd nude ve ehffa ca nude (56 ty mV65 ty m') Theo b i o c i o mffa khd, ban hdn, thieu nude nghidm trpng phue cua Chinh p h i glal doan 2006-2012 c i nude cd vy s i n xuat v i ddi sdng, thudng xuydn x i y d 160 du i n effa 29 tinh, thinh phd ehuyen ddi mye eie vffng, edng ddng d i n c u nhat Id Tdy B i e v i dich sff dung rffng sang xdy dyng thffy didn vdi T i y Nguydn Haili, thidn tai vd bidn ddi hau da vd dang de dpa ngudn tai nguyen nude Tien trinh phit tridn loii ngud da v i dang ra' vdo finh trang luan quan, vdng xoiy Do nhieu nguyen nhin khde vide ehlnh phue thidn nhidn phue vu ngudi, chinh qud trinh dd thidn nhidn da trffng phat ngffdi Bd Id d nhlem mdi trudng, blen ddl h i u , trai ddt ndng Idn, d nhiSm khdng khi, d nhidm ngudn nude, d nhidm ddt, can kidt tai nguydn, thidn tai (bio, lyt, ban b i n , ddng dat), 19,792 rffng, eho ddn mdi trdng rffng thay the dffdc 735 (3,7% didn tieh) Mye lidu phit trien thuy nang rat dung hudng, song ydu kem quy hoach, quin ly, du bao, x i y dung Iran lan, ndng vdi de lai hd qua nghidm trpng: Tai nguydn rffng bj tan p h i , bao lu bat thudng, t i i nguydn nude can kidt, d nhlem mdi trudng, d nhidm ngudn nude, dan tdi dinh eu gap khd khan ve kinh te, xa hdi, den sdng bj tdn thudng ning, he sinh thai ngheo kidt, xdi mdn ddt nghiem trpng, cp sd b a t i n g bj tan phi djch bdnh hidm ngheo Viet Nam la qudc gia ven Son la, nhu cau sff dung nude d Vidt Nam bidn, qudc gia trdn the gldl chju sy tdc ngdy cang tang eao dp lue phit trien kinh td - ddng Idn effa bidn ddi hau e i hien tai va xa hpi, dan sd ting eung vdi nhu cau chat ludng tudng lai Tai bidn mdi trudng, bidn ddi hau, cude sdng nang Ien ea ve vat chat v i tinh than fiii ddt ndng Idn, nude bidn d i n g , bao lu, han h i n Trong dd, tai nguyen nude suy giam e i ve sd xudt hidn vdi tan suat va cudng dd ngiy c i n g Idn^ lupng va chat lupng N i m 1990, nhu cau nude dd lai h i u q u i ngiy edng n i n g ne hdn ve kinh td eho ddn dyng vd cdng nghidp cua nude ta Id - x i hdi, dd ed ngudn t i i nguydn nude khoing 50 ty m'/nim, nam 2000 lang Idn 65 ty Ba (a, chdt lupng ngudn nude dang cd nguy cd Mir CHl GIAO DUC L* LUAN • s 220 (2014) m'/nam, ddn nam 2010 tang Idn 72 ty mVnim 31 NBHIEN Clhl-THABBBI Theo d u b i o den nam 2020 sd Id 80 ty m'/nam va Lan, L i o , Campuehia va Viet Nam Sdng Md 2030 sd l i 87-90 ty m'/nam Khdi lupng, nhu cau Kdng cd ngudn tdi nguyen phong phff, da dang, vd nude theo d u b i o n i y chidm 1 % tdng tdi rat thuan Ipi che phdt trien kinh te nhat l i nguyen nude hoae 29% tdi nguydn nude ndi dja d nang, ndng thuy san D i y l i ndi sinh sdng effa 65 fii^ nude ta Trong d u doan khde eho rang, nen kinh t i e u ngudi ehu ydu dya v i o ngudn Ipi effa ddng td Viet Nam den nam 2020 hodn mue fidu sdng Dae biet e i c nude thupng ngudn khai thic CNH,HDH ttieo hudng hidn dai can tdng nhu cau Idi thd x i y dung dap, hd thffy didn phue vu phat nude Idn khoing 510-520 ty mVnam Nhu cau fi-ien kinh td - xa hdi vd chff ddng bac vd an sinh nffdc gia t i n g ngudn nude d nude ta suy ngudn nude, nhu sdng Lan Cang (Lan Thffon^i, g i i m c i vd sd lupng vd chat lupng Id thff thach trdn dja bdn Vdn Nam - Tmng Qudc, da dupe quy Idn ddi vdi su phdt tridn ben vffng cua dat nude, beach b i e thang thuy didn trcng luu vuc sdng W bao d i m an sinh ngudn nude Theo dy b i o nhffng nam 1980, vdi 25 b i e thang trdn ddng ngudn nude Viet Nam sd giim di khoang 40 ty m' sdng chinh vdi tdng cdng suat lap m i y l i 25.870 v i o n i m 2025, tdng lupng nude mffa khd se giam MW v i 120 tram thuy didn trdn ddng chinh v« di khoing 13 ty m" Gan 40% lupng nude h i n g tdng edng suat 2.600 MW Hidn nay, Tmng Qudc n i m phit sinh ngodi lanh thd fi'ong eie tranh da ed edng trinh thuy didn trdn ddng sdng Lan chap ve nude giffa e i c qudc gia ven sdng qudc td Thudng da va dang dupe xay dung, dd cd gia tang nhu sdng Hdng, sdng Me Kdng Tinh cdng trinh khdng Id nhu dap Tidu Loan cao 292ni, fi'ang thap mye nude trdn cdc ddng sdng didn cdng suat 4.200 MW Bdn canh dd, Ldo cd kd nghidm trpng, g i y ndn ban h i n kdo d i i , t i e hoaeh xay dyng 23 dap thffy didn; Thai Lan hidn ddng ddn mpl mat cua ddl sdng xd hdi Nam ed dap Sa Ka Men va 3, da cd kd hoaeh tidp 2004, vdng 40 nam sdng Hdng can kidt d tyc xay dyng ede dap tren sdng Md Kdng; ttidi didm 1/2004 tai Hd Ndi Id +2,17m (ttiap nhat Campuehia eung da ed kd hoaeh nghidn effu xiy 1,75m) Nam 2005, xudng ddn +2,06m (thap nhat dyng dap thuy didn (Sam Bor vd Stung Treng) 1,5m) Vu ddng - x u i n n i m 2006-2007, mye nude Nhu vay, hd thdng d i p , hd ehffa vd ttiuy didn sdng Hdng tai Hd Npl xudng edn 1,6m thap nhat dupe xdy dung tren sdng Md Kdng ed y nghla vdng 100 nam qua Bdng bang sdng Hdng quan trpng phdt tridn kinh td ddl viS cic Id vffng kinh td, ehinh tri, van hda - xa hdi quan nude thupng ngudn, spng dd lai hau q u i khOn trpng eua dat nude, l i ndi ed mat dd d i n sd cao ludng khdng ehi ddi vdi c i c nude luu m i nhat c i nude, vffng ed nhieu t h i n h phd, ea cdc nude thuijng ngudn Cdc edng trinh dip cdng trinh quan trpng, dd ed Thff dd H i thuy dien Idm ngap dat, rffng, d i n eff dl ddi, thay Npl - trung t i m chinh trj, kinh te, van hda - xa hdi ddl ddng chay, anh hudng ddn lupng nude(han eua e i nude Do vay, vide chii ddng quan ly, sff h i n , b i o lu, sat Id) ddn ndng nghiep, thffy sin, dyng hpp ly, ed hidu q u i ngudn nude sdng Hdng giao thdng thuy, mdi trudng sinh t h i i , sinh kddla ed y nghTa quan trpng vd kinh td, chinh trj, x i hdi dancu vd an ninh Ddi vdi Vidt Nam, luu vuc sdng Md Kdng Sdng'Md Kdng Id 10 sdng idn nhat khoang 65.000km^ chidm 8% didn tieh luu vuc, thd gidi, cd ehidu ddl 4.800km, didn tieh luu vye 20% didn tieh qudc gia Trong dd luu vye TSy 795.000km^ tdng lupng ddng chay hang ndm 475 Nguyen l i 25.000km'', 39.500km^ tai Ddng bang ty m', luu lupng ddng ehiy trung binh h i n g nam sdng Cffu Long Viet Nam vffa Id thupng luu 15.000m'/s Sdng Me Kdng bat ngudn tff eao (Tay Nguydn Id thupng luu effa Campuehia), vita nguyen Tdy Tang cua Trung Qudc ehiy qua Idnh Id vung eudi cua luu vuc sdng Me Kdng (Ddng thd eua qudc gia Id Trung Qudc, Mianma, T h i i bang sdng Cffu Lcng) Vidt Nam ddng gdp 10- 32 TAP CHi GIAO Dye i t LUAN - S 220 (2014) NBHIEN cm-IHABBBI 12% luong nude vd ddng chay (nude ndi &a vd nude mua), edn lai 88-89% lupng mua tff nude ngoii chay vio Sdng Se San v i sdng Skepok l i hai sdng ehlnh phia bd trii cua sdng Md Kdng bit ngudn tff Tiy Nguydn giO vai trd Id thupng luu namff-enlanh thd tinh (Gia Lai, Kon Tum, Die Lie, Lam Ddng) vdi didn tieh luu vye 30.840km^ trdn lanh thd Vidt Nam Ha luu sdng Md Kdng ehia nhdnh sdng Tien va sdng Hau ehiy bidn Ddng Sdng Md Kdng ehia hai mua rd rdt: mua mua 10 tff thdng ddn thdng 12 hdng nam (ehiem 90% ddng ehiy nam), mua khd tff thing den thing 5, nhat l i thing v i cd ddng chay can kidt nhat Ddng bang sdng Cffu Long l i khu vye ddng nffdc nhieu nhdt c i nude cQng nhu so vdi eie nude luu sdng Md Kdng, ehiem 55,8% tdng lypng nude sff dyng luu vye sdng Md Kdng (72% mffa khd, 28,9% mua mua), lupng nude sdng Me Kdng trdn lanh thd Vidt Nam ehiem 61% tdng lupng nude sdng todn qudc Ddng bang sdng Cffu Long bao gdm 12 tinh vdi didn tieh 3,92 trieu ha, chidm 79% didn tieh ddng bang chiu thd sdng Md Kdng Ddng bang sdng Cffu Long Iffu sdng Md Kdng giff vai trd quan trpng phdt tridn kinh td, nhat la ndng nghidp, thffy san ddl vdi ei nude, chidm 55% san lupng lua v i 90% Iffpng gap xuat khau, Ddng bang sdng Cffu Long ndi ed 20 tridu ddn sinh sdng, ddng gdp 27% GDP ei nude, vdi 700km bd bidn, chidm 70% didn tieh nudi trdng thffy sin, ddng gdp 52% sin lupng thffy sin ei nude, gan 60% sin lupng thuy sin xuat khau effa ea nude Ngudn nang lupng dy kidn nhdp khau tff cac du dn thffy didn ddng ehinh si!ing Md Kdng khping 5% vip nim 2020 Nhff vay sdng Md Kdng ndi ehung, Ddng bang sdng Cffu Long ndi ridng ed vj trf quan trpng ddi vdi su phit Mdn kinh td - xd hdi, eung nhu dam bio an ninh ngudn nude eua Viet Nam Song Vidt Nam cffng chju inh hudng, nang chju nji ra, tdn that rdt idn so vdi nude luu sdng Md Kdng, qudc gia eudi ngudn nude, qudc gia nhat khdng ed thffy didn ddng chinh cudi TAP CHi GIAO DUC LY LUAN - S 220 (2014) ngudn nude, tdc ddng bidn ddi hiu, hau qua cff a cae cdng trinh thffy didn d thupng ngudn ndn bj ddng quan ly, dieu tidt vd sff dyng, ffng phd ed hieu qua he lyy: nang suy giam, thay ddi ddng chay, nang dieu tidt ngudn nude giffa ede mffa (mffa vd khd) vd gay ndn tai bidn bdt thudng: khd han, IQ lyt, nffdc bien ding, xdm man, xdi mdn, syt lun tie ddng manh den sin xuat ndng nghidp vd nudi trdng thuy sin Bdn canh dd Id su suy giam luijng phu sa ude khoang tff 26 tridu tan/nam giam xudng edn tridu tan/nam, chat lupng dinh dudng giam tff 4.157 tan/nim edn khoing 1.039 tridu tan/nam, inh hudng ddn ndng suat ndng nghidp vd thffy sin, suy giam lupng phii sa ddn ddn mat ed hdi binh ding, md rdng bd cdi ven bien vd bj bien xim thyc manh Ngoii ra, tie ddng ddng chay, ngudn dinh dudng ndn vide khai thic, nudi trdng thuy san sd bj tic ddng manh ea ve qui md, nang suat chdt lupng vd hidu qui Vd mat xa hdl, Ddng bang sdng Cffu Long ed khoang 14 tridu dan (ndng ddn vd ngu din) truefidpv i giin tidp se bj anh hudng ve vide lim, thu nhdp, dn djnh eudc sdng kdo theo dd Id he lyy vd mdi trudng sdng, bio dim an sinh xa hdi v i phit tridn ben vffng Nhu vay, an ninh ngudn mde glQ vj tri quan trpng chldn lupc bio ve an ninh qudc gia tinh hinh mdi Trong bdi canh qudc td v i khu vuc da vd dang dien nhffng bien ddng phffc tap, khd ludng, nhat Id sy didu ehinh chldn iude cua cdc nude Idn vd ehinh trj, kinh td, qudc phdng vd an ninh, hpp tic ngiy cing ting scng canh tranh cung ngiy eing gay git Dat nude ta tidp tuc su nghidp ddl mdi toin didn, thuc hien CNH,HDH nude nha, ehung ta mdi khdi tinh trang kem phit tridn, thye hien hdi nhdp qudc td siu vd ben vffng, eo hdi va thdeh thffe dan xen, dd cd van de bio ve An ninh qudc gia ve ngudn nude Be dim bio an ninh ngudn nude ehung ta phai ed nhffng giai phip ddng bd nham phat tridn ben vffng tii nguyen nffdc effa qudc gia 33 HBIUEHCliU-IHABBBI Mot ii, dffdi gdc quan fii qudc gia, Nhi nude ma fii/c tidp l i Bd Tii nguyen v i Mdi hirdng can ed chidn lupc td chffe nghien cthi khao sdt tdng file tdi nguydn nude vd dy bdo long nhu cau sff dyng nude (nude phyc vy phdt trien kinh td, sinh boat du trff ) eua qudc gia dd ed cd sd, can eff xdy dyng chidn lupc, hoaeh djnh Id trinh quan ly, khai thde, sff dung ngudn nude hi;ip ly, cd hidu qua, ben vffng hidn tai vd tuong lai Hai li, Ding v i Nha nude lanh dao, chi dao xdy dyng chidn lupc tdng the vd an ninh qudc gia tinh hinh mdi nham ffng phd vdi eic nguy eo de dpa an ninh tmydn thdng vd an ninh phi truydn thdng dim bio phit tridn ben vffng dat nude xu thd hdi nhap qudc te Phdt tridn kinh td - 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