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2 NLN 116 •3/2014 i XAY DUNG CHlNH SACH SUTDUNG CO HIEU QUA CAC NGUON NANG LUtfNG SO! CAP 6 V IET NAM PGS TS Tru''''O''''ng Duy NghTa Sutfc dinh hinh trong cSc k6 hoach phat trien lu co va hat nhan) - Nang luang tai tao (thuy nang, nang lugng cua mat tr&i, cua ^id, cua ngudn cSa nhiet, cua song bien va tir cac nguon biomas dimg lam nhien lieu) Cac ngudn thuy nang dung d l san xuat dien co gia san xujt dien thap nhlt Vi vay d nuoc ta cung nhu o hlu hit cac nuoc trSn t h i gio'i dIu _i xu hudng u i— khai i,u„i thac uA„ triet i.ia+ ,tA „6,- ngudn nn.inn thuy thr'n/ cd de cac nang Sau nha may thuy dien Lai Ch§u, cac ngudn thuy nang Idn a nude ta da du'gc khai thac het, chi cdn nhu'ng ngudn thuy dien vira va nho VI vay ty le san luong dien cac nha may thuy dien tdng san lugng dien nang qudc gia cang giam Cac nguon nang lugng tai tao khac cdn phan tan va chua cd ddng gdp dang k l can bing nang lugng qudc gia (bang 1) Nude la cung cd md Uran tai Ndng Son (Quang Nam) va Batsal (Lao Cai) song la Uran ngheo, kha nSng chi biln nhien liSu hat nhan d l ddt cac Id hoi phat dien cdn chua Bang Cong suat va san luung dien nSng cac nam TT Dal lu'gng T6na Nhi$l di^n dot than Tyle Nhiet dien a6t Tyle Thuy dien TylS Oien ttr nang luong tSI tao Tyl$ BiSn hat nhan 2011 San lu'g'ng 107.225 l y k W h 18,884 tykWh 17,61% 39,15 tykWti 35.51% 46,45 ty kWh 43,32% 2020 San lwg>ng Cong suat -75 000 MW 330 ty kWh 156tykWh 36.000 MW 48,0% 46,8% 14.000 MW 79,0 t } kWh 24.0% 19.1% 64,7 ty kWh 19.120 MW 25,5% 19,6% 4,200 MW 14,8tykWh 5,6% 975 MW 1,3% Tfl$ 4,5% 6,93 ty kWh 2,1% 2030 San lug'ng Cong suat 695 ty kWh 146.800 MW 391 t} kWh 75.750 MW 56,4% 51.6% 100,0 t f k W h 17.320 MW 14,4% 11,8% 64,6 ty kWh 23,048 MW 9,3% 15,7% 41,7t9kWh 13,800 MW 9,4%, 9,689 MW 6,5% 6,0% 70,195 IfkWh 10,1% Bang Trtr luung va san IwQfng khai thic nhien lieu hiru ca tren the gi&l Nhien lieu Do-n vj Tru' lu'gng San liygng nam 2011 Than Dau Khi dot TylSn Tytan Tym-" 892' 180 209 742 7.52 4,011 338 ' Theo thong ke nay, trCr luong than cua Viet Nam chi co 300 trieu l^n ? Sd nam khai thac dSn h&t, nSm 118 44,8 62,0 NLN* 1 - / ' 1.2 Trw Iwgng va san Iwgng dau 6- Viet Nam khai thac than, Nam 2011 dat 14,38 trieu tan dau Nam 2012 dat Than va Theo quy hoach phat tri^n nganh than den nam 2030 da du-gc Thu tu'ang Chinh phu phe duyet tai Quyet dinh s6 60/QD-TTg 09/01/2012 thi' - Tdng trir Iwong than den 01/01/2011 + than da: 48,4 ty t i n + than bun: 0,3 ty t i n la: Trong trO lug'ng d u a vao quy hoach khai thac la: + than da: ty tin + than bun: 0,2 ty tan Kh^ nang khai thac: + nam 2015 55-58 trieu tSn + nam 2020 60-65 trieu tan + nam 2025 66-70 trieu tan + nam 2030 >75 trieu t i n Theo nhifiu chuyen gia, san lup'ng 70-75 trieu t i n than/nam co the coi la san l u p n g giai hgn khai thac than cua Viet Nam Nhu c l u than cho dien va cho nen kmh te n h u sau (bang 3) L u p n g than thieu hut (chu y l u cho san l u p n g x u l t di§n) d u p c bu bai l u g n g than n h | p k h I u N h u v | y ' s6 l u p n g than nhap k h I u tinh tir nam 2020 se r l t lan Ngu6n than nhap k h I u chu y l u t u Oc (than bitum) va Indonexia (a bitum), r l t thich h g p de d6t cac nha may dien Theo quy hoach phSt then nganh d I u d i n nam 2015, dinh h u a n g den nam 2025 (da d u p c Thu t u d n g Chinh phu phe duyet tai Q u y l t dinh s6 223/QD-TTg 18/2/2011) thi san lugng dau quy d6i dat 14-17 trieu t i n / n a m , d6t dat 8,5-14 ty m^/nam T h y c te san l u p n g d I u tho khai thac d u p c cua Tap doan Dau Viet Nam t u cac mo d I u cua vi^t N a m da dat dinh vac khoang 20 trieu t i n , cac nam g i n day san l u g n g da giam di nhi^u: 15,63 trieu t i n d I u (trong nuac) 1,11 tneu t i n ( n u a c ngoai) T r u CO nhung phat hien m a i v l t r u l u g n g D I U cua Viet Nam, san l u p n g khai thac n u a c dao dpng quanh m u e 15 trieu t I n / n a m Dau mo khai thac d u p c cung d p cho nha may Ipc d I u Dung q u i t Cac san p h i m Igc d I u tif nha may chu yeu phyc vu nhu c l u giao thong, chi CO ty le r l t nho ( d I u nang FO) va d I u nhe DO) d u p c diing lam nhien lieu phu cho cac nha may dien d6t than Khi cac nha may Ipc d I u Nghi S a n (cong s u i t 10 tneu t I n / n a m ) , va Long S a n (cong s u i t 10 tri^u t l n / n § m ) di vao san x u l t ciing vai nha may Igc d I u Dung Q u i t (se nang cong s u i t tCf 6,5 len 10 trieu t I n / n a m ) thi chac c h i n se phai CO them ngu6n d I u tho tCr n u a c ngoai, San l u a n g khai thac d6t cua PVN dat 8,53 ty m^ (2011) va ty m^ ( d i n 18/12/2012), hien v i n khong dap u n g nhu c l u d6t cua cac NMD d6t Phu My, N h a n Trach, Ca Mau va Ba Ria Ngoai phai k l d i n nhu c l u cho cac NMD nguy§n d u a c t h i l t k l d i t d I u n h u Thu D u e , Hi#p Phub'C, O Mon va cac nha may dien d i t O Mon 2, 3, va Lugng thi&j dugc bii bai nguIn nhap khIu LNG K i t I u a n : N u a c ta khong phai la n u a c co n h i l u nang luang s a d p (thuy nang, than, d I u , khi) T i n g trif lupng than theo Q u y l t i^nh s6 60/QD-TTg tai 48.4 ty t i n song thyc t l trCf lugng co the dua vao khai thac chi c6 ty t i n Theo nhieu chuyen gia, trii' lupng than co t h i dua vao khai thac kinh t l khong v u g t qua ^ t i n Kha nang khai thac p h I n than lai s6 48,4 ty t i n (nhu than a D i n g b i n g B i c bp) n h i l u kho khan Dau mo cua n u a c ta khong n h i l u khong nhirng khong tang d u p c san l u p n g thac ma co xu h u a n g ^iam d i n hang nam, c h i n phai phap k h I u dau th6 d l du cung d p nha may Ipc d I u (3x10 trieu t I n / n a m ) nen khai chic cho Bang Nhu cau than cho di$n va cho nen kinh te Nam 2015 2020 2025 2030 Phu'ong cin p/a eg sd cao p/a CO sd cao p/a CO so cao p/a CO sd Cao Tong nhu c i u , trieu t^n 56.2 60,7 112,4 120,3 145,5 177,5 220.3 271,1 Nhu c75 trieu t i n Theo nhifiu chuyen gia, san lup''ng 70-75 trieu t i n than /nam co the coi... 1.2 Trw Iwgng va san Iwgng dau 6- Viet Nam khai thac than, Nam 2011 dat 14,38 trieu tan dau Nam 2012 dat Than va Theo quy hoach phat tri^n nganh than den nam 2030 da du-gc Thu tu''ang Chinh phu... tir nam 2020 se r l t lan Ngu6n than nhap k h I u chu y l u t u Oc (than bitum) va Indonexia (a bitum), r l t thich h g p de d6t cac nha may dien Theo quy hoach phSt then nganh d I u d i n nam