35{4), 374 380 Tap chi CAC KHOA HOC V£ TRAI DAT \| THI/C TRANG VA NGUYEN NHAN THIEU NUCiC VtWG DONG BANG SONG HONG VO THI THU LAN, HOANG THANH SON, BUI ANH TUAN E mail vutbulan68@yahoo cora Vifn Dia l[.]
35{4), 374-380 Tap chi CAC KHOA HOC V£ TRAI D A T \| THI/C TRANG VA NGUYEN NHAN THIEU NUCiC VtWG DONG BANG SONG HONG VO THI THU LAN, HOANG THANH SON, BUI ANH TUAN E-mail: vutbulan68@yahoo.cora Vifn Dia ly, Viin Hdn ldm Khoa hgc vd Cong nghe Viet Nam Ngay nhan bai; 30 - - 2013 M d dau Dugc xep vao loai hinh thifln tai cd riii ro khdng Id dien nhung han ban la tham hoa thara lang ma neu keo dii se anh hudng nghiem den sinb ke ciia ngudi, cd nang biiy diet ldn; ban ban la nguyen nhan gay sg ton vong cua nen van minh Ai Cap cd dai each day 4.200 nam Ngay nay, ban ban da trd dang thifln tai phd bien tren the gidi va da trd thach thiic loan cau, theo nghien ciru ciia Uy ban hen Chinh phii cua Lien hgp qudc ve bien doi hau (IPCC), vong 25 nam qua, ban ban d i xay thudng xuyen hon vdi quy mo, cudng cang ldn va xu hudng se nghiflm trgng ban tuang lai bicn ddi hau, Vdi vi tri dia ly trii dai 3260 km dudng bd bifln va be ngang hep, Viet Nam !a qudc gia cd nhicu ciia song bifln vi vay ngudn til nguyen nudc mat mac dii ldn nhung mang yeu to klidng ben vung phu thuflc vao ngudn nudc tit ngoai lanh tho (chiem tdi 60% tong lugng nudc) Trong nhung nam gan day, han han da xuit hien trfln khap lanh thd Viet Nam tir cac khu vuc am den viing ban khd ban va la nguyen nhin hinh cac viuig dat hoang hda din d i n sa mgc hda; thien tai ban han da gay thiflt hai rit ldn cho nen kinh te, raat dn djnb xa hpi cung nhu gay tac dflng xau dfln mdi trudng Dong bang song Hdng la viing cd nen van rainh Ilia nudc phat tnen rat lau ddi va la I vua thdc ldn ciia dat nudc cd nguon tai nguyen dat va nudc rat phong phii; nhien nhQng nam gan day ban ban, thiflu nudc diing x i y lien tuc tren difln rgng, d i e bi?t thgp ky d i u ciia thfl ky XXI da anh budng nghiflra trgng den phal triln 374 kinh tfl - xa hoi vimg Bii bao de cap den bien trang ban ban va danh gia c i c nguyen nhan chinh gay han han d viing ddng bang sdng Hong tbdi gian va day se la ca sd nhira d l xuit cac giai phap thich ung, giara thieu tie ddng ciia ban ban dfln phat trifln kinh te, dn dinh xa hfli va bao vfl radi truong viing dong bang Idn thir ciia Viet Nam P h u a n g p h i p nghien cuu va ca sd dir ll^u 2.1 Phuang phdp nghien cuu Phuang phap thdng ke: trfln ca sd cac sd lieu, ket qua nghifln ciru trudc, bang phuang phip thflng kfl xac dinh xu hudng, dien bifln cua tap hgp sfl li?u thu thgp Phuong phap phan tich dia ly tong hgp: trfln ca sd cac sd lieu, tai lieu da nghien cuu xac djnh nguyen nhan chinh gay ban ban cua viing dflng bang song Hflng 2.2 Cas&dulifu Tii lieu, sd Iiflu vfl thuc trang hgn han, thilu nudc diing ciia cac tinh vimg ddng bing sflng Hflng dugc thu thap tgi Bfl Ndng nghiflp v i Phat triln Nong thdn [4] v i bao cao tflng kflt dfl tii KC 08-23/06-10: Nghifln cuu co sd khoa hgc quan ly ban ban va sa mac hda dfl x i y dung bfl thflng quin Iy, de xuat cae giai phap chifln luge v i giim thieu tic hai: Nghifln ciiu difln hinh cho dflng bing song Hflng va Nam Trung B p " TS Nguyen Lap Dan, Vifln Dia ly - Vifln H i n l i m Khoa hgc v i Cflng nghfl Viflt Nam ehii bifln, 2010 [2] Sd Iiflu hrgng thuy vin: Vifln Khoa hgc Khi tugng Thuy v i n va Mdi trudng cung cip, gflm cd: - Tii liflu tugng, thiiy v i n tai c i c tram quan trie mgng ludi qudc gia tren luu vgc sdng Hdng tit nam 1936 dfln - Tii liflu ddng chay sau c i c cdng trinh thuy difln ldn nhu Hda Binh, Thic B i , Tuyfln Quang Ket q u i v i thao luan 3.1 Khdi qudt dgc diem idi nguyen ddt vd nu&c vung dong bdng song Hong Dflng bang sdng Hdng la viing chau thd cua Iuu vgc sdng Hflng - Thai Binh bao gora 10 tinh v i phd dd cd tbu dd Ha Ndi, Tp Hii Phdng, Bac Ninh, Vinh Phiic, H i Nam, Nam Dinh, Thii Binh, Hii Duang, Hung Yfln va Ninh Binh Dflng bang cd tflng difln ticb tg nhifln 21.067,62km^, d i n sd 19,8 trieu ngudi (chiem 22,8% din s l ca nudc) v i d i y li viing trgng diem kinh tl ciia c i nude [1] Vdi dia hinh bao quanh gflm nhung ddi niii thip dudi 100m, viing chau thd dugc tinh tir Viet Tri dfln bifln bing phang, dg doc trung binh khoing 8cm/Ikm, vi viy mgng ludi sdng sudi d khu vgc d i y die gdra cic ddng sflng chinh v i phan luu bien thupc hfl thing song Hing - Thii Binh d i tao nfln ngufln tii nguyfln dit v i nudc rit phong phu [2] Ve tii nguyen d4t: dflng bing sdng Hong cd loai dat chil yeu, dd dit phii sa (dugc boi v i khflng dugc bli) cd difln lich chiem 71,5% difln tich toin v^ng; ngoai cdn mflt so loai dit nhu dat chiem trung giiy, dit chua rain, dit mgn (cd difln tieh 96.608ha chilm 6,5% difln tich tg nhifln), dit bgc miu (chilm 5,5%); dit dd vang (chiflm 8,5%) vi dit cit (chiem 1,1% difln lich) Cd thfl thiy ring, tai nguyfln dit d day cd ning gieo trdng tir den vg Iiia m i u va cbo ning suit kba cao Ben egnh dd tinh trgng bgn hin nen cd tdi tren 16% di?n tich dat cd v i n dfl, kbd sii dgng nhu dit bae miu, dat cat,., vS tii nguyen nu^c: mgng ludi sdng sudi vung ding bing gom ddng chinh sdng Hdng (dugc tinh lir ngi ba Bgch Hgc d i n biln), ddng chinh sdng Thii Binh (dugc tinh tii Phi Lgi d i n biln) Khi chiy vio ving dong bing ddng chinh sdng Hong cd nhilu phin luu c i hai bd t i huu Trudc day bfln bd ti cd cic nhinh nhu sdng Phan song C i Ld, sdng Thiep, sdng Dudng, Dinh Dao, Cim An v i sdng T r i Ly; bd huru cd cac sdng nhu sdng Day, sdng Nhufl, Td Lich, sdng Lip, Chiu Giang, song Dao Nam Djnh, sdng Ninh Co v i sdng Sd Ngiy bd t i cdn phan Iuu li sdng Dudng, sdng Luge v i sdng Tra Ly; bd hiru cdn hai phin luu la sflng D i o Nam Dinh v i sflng Ninh Co, sdng Diy d cua D i y chi lien he vdi sdng Hdng phan lu Trung binh mgt dfl song sudi d vimg ddng bang dat I - I,3km/km^(/ii/i/i/) Ddng chiy qua viing dflng bang bien ciia he thdng sdng Hdng - sdng Thii Binh phong phii voi tdng lugng binh quin nhieu nim tai San Tiy khoing 118 ty m^ (tuang iing 3.740raVs); tinh c i sdng Thii Blnb, sdng Day v i lugng ddng chiy sinh tren khu vgc ddng bing thi tdng Iugng ddng chiy qua vimg ddng bang dd bien dgt tdi 133,68 ty m', 81,86 ty m' (tuong duang 61,2%) lugng ddng chiy sin sinb tgi Viflt Nam va 51,82 ty m^ (tuang duong 38,8%) Ii sin sinh trfln lanh Iho Trung Quflc Miia lu Iren hfl thflng sflng vimg ddng bing tir thing VI - X vdi Idng lugng ddng chiy miia lu chiem tren 70% tdng lugng ddng chiy nim; neu tinh luu lugng IQ binh quin d Son Tay li 17540mVs (100%) thi phin luu lugng binh quan vao cic sdng nhu sau: sdng Dudng 29,1%, song Luge 8,6%, sdng D i o Nam Djnh 23%, sdng Ninh Ca 5,7%, sdng Tri Ly 8,6%, sdng Hong d Phii Hao 29% Thing cd ddng chay Idn nhit li thing VUI v i cic trgn lu Idn nhit hang nim xiy vao thing VIII (chilm 55% long sd lin lu Idn xuit hifln) sau dd l i thing VII (28%) v i thing IX (11%) cita ckv&ra Miia kifll keo dii hr thing XI - V v i dien bifln ddng chay kifll ciia sdng phy thuflc rat nhieu vio lugng mua gid mua ddng bic cung cip (die biflt mua phim thing 11 v i III) Tu thing XII dfln thing 111 ddng chiy sflng sudi li nudc ngira v i nudc diflu tiflt hi eae ho chiia cung cip v i lugng ddng chay trfln sdng giim din, thing kiflt nhit li thing HI {bang I) Co thi thiy ring tai nguyen nudc mit viing dflng bing sdng Hdng phong phii nhung viflc kbai thac sii dgng nguon nudc niy thudng rat khd khin linh chat phin mua ddng chiy cung nhu phg thugc rat Idn vio ngudn nudc lir thugng nguon ,t t„ f ^ ^ • - - J Hinh Vl tri vung dong b^ng song Hong tren lanh tho Vift Nam Bang Ti^m nang nguon nu'd'c mat viing dong bang song Hdng (chua tinh d^n difeu t i l t c i c h6 chi>a) Thang II III IV V VI Vll VIII IX X XI Xii WlO'm^ 3,6 3,0 2,6 3,1 5,7 13,5 22,1 25,9 19,4 12,0 7,6 4,6 3.2 Hien trgng hgn hdn cua vdng ddng bdng song Hong Li viing dat cd, phat tnen lau ddi nen nhu cau sir dung nudc d vung ddng bang sdng Hdng rat ldn, Dua tren sd lieu thdng ke ciia cac tinh viing ddng bang sdng Hdng nam 2010, nhu cau sir dung nudc cua toan vung duoc tinh toan la 12,1 ty ra^, dd lugng nudc ldn nhat cung cap cho nginh ndng nghiep (chiem tdi 71,8% tdng nhu cau su dung), nhu cau cap nudc cho cac nginh khac nhu cip nudc dd thi (5,7%), cdng nghiflp (5,1%) vi dich vu du lich, giao thdng, (chiem 9%) [4] dam bao du nude cho nhu ciu sir dung hifln (nam 2010) vdi tin suit 85% Tuy nhifln, thgc tl nhirng nim gin diy vin xay hgn ban va thiflu nudc dimg xay lifln tuc tren difln rflng (hinh 2): ii'':!''m;\T\rnraunn(v;niii Nhu ciu nudc ciia cac nganh trung binh tbdi ky nam dugc trinh biy bdng Bang Nhu cau si> dung niFO'c ciia loan vi^ng ddng bang song Hong 1401 1088 1641 11.6 8.99 1^^6 10 11 12 429 356 426 3.55 2,94 3,52 So sanh vdi tdng lugng tu nhifln vung ddng bang sdng Hong cho thay tiem nang ngudn nudc Hmh Ccr ciu si> dyng ni«!rc nSm 2010 cua wung dfing bSng sflng Hfing Nam 2003, khoing 300.000 ting sl 500.000 liia Ddng Xuin gieo cay d ddng blbg sdng Hdng bi hgn nang Nim 2004, hgn ban dugc dinh gii la khde bet nhat Uong 40 niim trd vfl trudc, mac dii di dugc cinh bio ve van de hgn hin vi trifln khai nhieu bien phip khic phgc nhung difln tich ban vg dflng xuan van Ifln toi 233.400 ha, mgt sd tinh ban hit sire D^em trgng nhu: tinh Bic Ninh (23.890 ha, chilm 60% difln lich gieo ciy) Hi Nfli (11.400 ha, chilm gin 50%), Hung Yen (28.900 ha, chilm 56%) Nam 2006, mgc nudc sdng Hdng dugc tai Hi Nfli thip hon nhieu so vdi muc nudc cin thilt de van hinh cic trgm bam tudi vi kflt qui li 134.512 liia ddng xuin bj bgn, 12.295 pb^i chuyfln dfli sang cay trdng cd nhu ciu nudc it ban Nim 2009, dong bang sdng Hflng ude tinh cd khoing 80.000 dil sin xuat ndng nghiep thieu nudc va gin 6.000 ba pbii chuyen sang cic gidng cay trdng chju hgn, De ed ngudn nude tudi cho nhihig dien tich ciy vg ddng, nhiflu dja phuang da khoan gieng, ngo vet ao, hd nhung chi li giii phap tinh Ihl Miia khd nira 2010 - 2011, vdi dg bao vfl kha ning khd hgn nfln dien tich gieo trdng dS dugc cac tinh viing d6ng bing sflng Hdng giim 10.000 15.000 so vdi vg trudc, nhung van khdng dap ling dugc nudc tudi cho cic difln tich gieo trdng Tgi huyen VTnh Tudng, tinh Vmh Phiic, 50% dien tich gieo ciy li 6.650 liia b| chgm tifln dfl mgc nudc sdng Hdng vi sdng Ld xudng dudi cdt I - 1,5m nfln cac tram bam Dgi Dinh va Bgch Hgc khdng boat dgng dugc Nhieu noi nhu xa Binh Duong, Thugng Trung, Tan Cuang, Cao Dai, da dao giflng nudc giiia rudng vi dung miy bom nhd but tudi Cic tinb d cudi ngudn (Nam Djnh, Hung Yfln, ) pbii chuyfln ddi sang trflng dgu ninh vi rau miu Cd thfl thiy rang, ty lfl dien tich hgn trfln dien tich gieo cay cua ca hai vg ddng xuan va miia deu ldn (15% - 24,2% dfli vdi vg ddng xuin va 13,6% 22,3% dfli vdi vg miia) Nam ban dien hinh trfln toin vung la nim 2010, ty lfl dien lich ban vg ddng xuan Igi ddng bang sdng Hdng len den 19,2% Tuy nhifln, ty lfl difln ticb mat tring tren dien tich gieo ciy eua ci hai vg khdng cao, cao nbat chi cd 0,34% 3.3 Cdc nguyen nhdn cff bdn gay hgn hdn viing dong bang song Hong Theo sd liflu quan trie lugng mua eua dii mgng Lang (Hi Ngi) - dai difln cho vimg ddng bing sflng Hong - cbo thiy lugng mua cd xu the "^ bien dflng khdng ldn (AJnA 3) Hinh DiSn bi4n mwa nam t^i tr?m Khf lu(7ng L^ng (HS Ngi) Dl xic djnh tinh chil khd bgn ciia hiu, chiing tdi tham khio chi s6 khfl hgn (K) di dugc tinh toin tgi dii tugng Ling (Hi Nfli) (bdng 4) Day la chi sfl kbd hgn phan inh ty sfl giua phin tbu cbii yflu va phin chi chu ylu cua can can nudc Bang P h i n logi hgn thao chi s d khd hgn K K