jnang lu nam XVI3 IMgnten CUU Knoa npe TAC OONG COA BIEN OOI KHI HAU OOI vdl SINH KE COA CONG O6NG DAN CUXA OAT MOI HUYEN NGOC HIEN, TiNHCAMAU o Nguyen Thi Hang Ngd Khoa Kinh te Ludt This research use[.]
jnang lu nam XVI3 IMgnten CUU Knoa npe TAC OONG COA BIEN OOI KHI HAU OOI vdl SINH KE COA CONG O6NG DAN CUXA OAT MOI HUYEN NGOC HIEN, TiNHCAMAU o Nguyen Thi Hang Ngd Khoa Kinh te - Ludt This research uses evaluation methods livelihood vulnerability index (Livelihood Vulnerability Index - L Vl) to assess the impact of climate change for community life at Dal Mui village, Ngoc Hien district Ca Man province The study results showed thai ihe damage community livelihoods Dal Mui village decreases with elemenls of social network, livelihood strategies, food, household characlerislics water resources, natural disaster, financial capital and health The impacts of climate change present locally in the average, the sensitivity / vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is not loo high The study also proposes a number of solution to help communities Dat Mui village enhance adaptability to climate change impacts Keywords Climate change, livelihood of community Nghien cuu n^ su dying phirang phdp ddnh gia chi so ton thuang sinh ki (Livelihood Vulnerability Index LVl) de ddnh gid tdc dgng cua bien doi hgu (BDKH) den sinh ke ctia cgng dong cu ddn xa Ddl MSi, huy^n Nggc Hien, tinh Ca Mau Kel qud nghien cuu cho thdy su tdn thuang sinh ki cua cgng dong xa Ddt Mui gidm ddn theo cdc yeu to mgng luai xd hgi, chien luge sinh ke tuang thirc Ihffc phdm, dgc diem hg, ngudn nudc, thdm hoa ttr nhien, von lai chinh vd sue khoe Su the hi4n tdc dgng cua BDKH tgi dia phuang a muc trung binh, su nhgy cdm/linh di tdn ihuang truac tdc dgng cua BDKH la khong qud cao Nghien cuu di xudt mgt so giai phdp giiip cgng ddng ddn cu xa Ddt MSi ndng cao khd ndng thich ung vai tdc dgng ciia BDKH Tu khda: Biin doi hgu sinh ke cua cgng ddng ddn cu I Dat van de Hi?n nay, BDKH dang la mdt nhimg van nan dang qxian tam nhat ddi vdi nhieu qudc gia trdn the gidi Vdi eac bieu hidn chinh la sy gia tang nhiet toan cau va myc nudc bien dang cao Xa Dat Mui thugc hu\ en Nggc Hien tinh Ca Mau nam d vi tri cyc Nam trdn dat lien cua Viet Nam, la mdt nhiing dia phuang nhat cd ca bd bidn phia Ddng va Tay, chiu tae dgng true tidp cua ca hai chd dg thiiy tridu: bdn nhat tridu Ddng \ a ban nhat tridu Tay Thdi gian qua trudc tae ddng cua BDKH, dia phuang da true tidp "ganh chiu" nhiing anh hudng xau cua cdc bieu hidn cyc doan nhu Idc xoay, nudc bidn dang, sat !d, nudc man xam nhap sau, Mat khac, dan cu ven bidn xa Dat Miii chii ydu sdng nhd vdo ngudn lgi tir bidn thdng qua danh bat va nudi trdng thu> hai san Van dd cang trd nen nghidm trgng hon tan suat xay cac hien tugng thien tai, bao THONG TIN KHOA HOC GIAO DUC Jltdiuf 10 iitiiii 201!} Nghien cifu khoa hgc lu sat la cdng nhidu Theo dy bao Ddni: h:ing sony Cuu Long co ngu> co ngap 28% nudc bidn dang cao 0.7m (Trin Thi Lan Anh 2011) dd xa Dat Miii la mgt nhdng noi chiu anh hudng nang nd nhit, ddi sdng sinh kd cua ngudi dan se bi ton thuang khong nho truoc tae dgng CLia BDKH Chinh vi vay danh gia tdn thutmg sinh kd ciia cu dan ven bien xa Dat Mui co y nghia quan trgng Kdt qua nghidn ciiu se la co sd khoa hoc giup lanh dao dja phuong xa\ dirng cac chuong trinh thich iing va gidm thidu tdc dgng cua BDKH gop phan giup cong dong cu dan ven bidn dam bao sinh ke bdn viing Muc tieu nghien cihi Danh gia tdc ddng cua BDKH ddn sinh kd ciia cong ddng dan cu xa Dat Mui huyen Ngoc Hidn va dd xult mgt so giai phap nhim giiip cgng dung tian cu xa Dat Mui nang cao kha nang ihich ling vdi tae ddng cua BDKH Phuong phap nghien euu 3.1 Phuong phap thu thap so lieu So lieu thir d p : Cdc thdng tin vd sd Iran bao ap thap nhiet ddi sat la Idc xoay cung voi cac thi?t hgi thidn tai gay dugc cung cap tir Ban chi hu\' Phong chong lut bao khac phuc thien lai vd tim kidm ciiu hp ciiu ngn tinh Ca Mau, Phdng Nong nghiep va phat irien nong thon huyen Ngoc Hidn, Chi cue Thiiy lgi tinh Ca Mau; Cac thdng tin vd linh hinh kinli te xa hoi, de an xay dung nong thdn mdi dugc cung cap bdi UBND xa Dat Mui Sd li?u so cap: Nghidn ciiu thu thap sd lieu lir 82 hp dan sinh sdng d xa Dat Mui, huydn Ngoc Hidn bdng phuong phap chgn mau ngau nhidn phan tang vdi cac tidu chi phan tang ve dja ban cu irii va dgc trung sinh ke Cac ddi tugng nghidn ciiu dugc phong van true tiep thong qua bang cau hoi bdn cdu tnic Bang 1: PHAN BO MAU DIEU TRA THEO D|A BAN NGHIEN CUU STT Ten ap So ho So ho dieu tra % ho mdi ap so voi xa (%) % ho dieu tra moi ap so voi xa (%) Rach Tau 319 10 12.3 0,38 Cai Xep 178 6.8 0.26 Rach Tau Ddng 255 9.8 0.31 Kinh Dao 331 10 12,7 0,38 Kinh Dao Ddng 342 10 13.1 0.38 Kinh Dao Tiy 164 6.3 0.19 Lach Vim 272 10.4 0.31 THONG TIN KHOA HOC GIAO DUC dMaiuf 1U Hdm Ngnten euu Knee noc 2015 Mui 293 10 11,3 0,38 Cdn Mui 216 8,3 0,27 10 Khai Long Tong cong 233 9,0 0,31 2.603 82 100 3,17 Ngudn: UBND xd Ddt Mui vd sS lieu khdo sdt true tidp, 2013 3.2 Phuong phap phan tich Phuong phap danh gia chi sd tdn thuang sinh kd LVI (Livelihood Vulnerability Index) dugc de xuat bdi Hahn et al (2009) dugc ap dung nghien ciiu nham danh gia sy tae dpng ciia BDKH doi vdi sinh kd ciia cdng ddng Theo Hahn et al (2009), cd hai each tiep can ddi vdi chi sd LVI Theo cac tdc gia cd hai each tidp can ddi vdi chi sd tdn thuong sinh kd (LVI), cdch thii nhat the hien LVI nhu Id mgt chi sd hdn hgp bao gdm ydu td chinh Id: dgc diem hg, chidn luge sinh kd, mgng ludi xa hdi, sue khde, luong thyc, ngudn nudc, cac tham hga ty nhidn va sy thay ddi hau Moi yeu td chinh bao gdm vai chi bao hogc ydu td phu Cach thu hai Id tap hgp ydu td ehinh vao tdc nhdn ddng gdp theo dinh nghTa kha nang bi tdn thuong eua Uy ban Lidn chinh phu ve BDKH ddi vdi kha nang tdn thuong la sy hiing chiu, su nhgy cam/tinh de ton thuong va kha ndng thich iing Cach tinh LVI: Do moi ydu td phy dugc ludng theo moi he thdng khac ndn cin thiet phai chuan hda dd trd mgt chi so theo phuong trinh dudi day: Index, Sd-Smn S max- Sj la gia tri gdc ydu td phy (gia trj thyc) ddi vdi dia phuang (huydn/xa) d Smin la gia tri tdi thidu Smax la gia tri tdi da Sau dugc chuin hda, cac ydu td phu dugc lay trung binh dd tinh gia tri cua moi yeu td chinh bing each dp dyng phuang trinh sau: Y^i^dex^^, M, M la mgt bay ydu td chinh ddi vdi dia phuong (huydn/xa) d Index SJ, thd hi?n cac ydu td phu dugc ghi chi sd theo I, chung tao nen mdi ydu to chinh n la sd lugng ydu td phu mdi ydu td chinh TpnVG TIN KHOA HOC GIAO DUC Q'hdjuj 10 ndnt 2015 Nghien ctJu khoa hgc Khi gia tri cua cac ydu td chinh duoc xac djnh, chi sd ton thuang sinh ke d p dia phuong (huydn/xa) dugc tinh toan theo phuong trinh: LVI,=^, z^«, Trong do: /=i M^: la trpng sd cua mdi yeu td chinh M^: ydu td chinh cho dia phuang (huydn/xa) dugc ghi chi sd theo i LVlj la chi sd tdn thuong sinh kd dja phuang (huydn/xa) d tuong iing vdi trung binh co trpng so tat ca yeu to chinh Trpng so cua moi ydu to chinh W^^^ dugc xac dinh bang sd lirgng cac ydu to phu tgo nen cac ydu td chinh Bang 2: SU DONG GOP CUA CAC NHAN TO IPCC DEN CAC YEU TO TON THUONG CHINH Cac nhan to dong gdp theo IPCC doi vdi cac yeu to chinh ciia kha nang tdn thuong Su phd bay (Exposure - e) (su the hidn ciia cac tae dpng) Tham hpa thidn nhidn va bidn ddi hau Khd ndng thich ung (Adaptive Capacity - a) - Dgc diem hd - Chien luge sinh kd - Mgng ludi xa hgi Ti'nh de tdn thuong (Sensitivity - s) - Siic khde - Luang thuc - Vdn tai chinh - Nguon nudc Nguon: Mo phdng theo Micah B Hahn et al, 2009 Cach tinh LVl-lPCC: Thay vi hop nhit cac yju td chinh vio LVI mot buoc, each tiep can kk hop cac yeu td chinh theo bang bing each sir dung cong thiic: ZlV«,xM,, CF, Y^w CF^: mdt tic nhan dong gop IPCC THONG TIN KHOA HOC GIAO DUC •rjttiuuf lij nam 2015 Nghien cUu Knoa ngc Mj^: ydu td chinh cho dia phuong (huydn/xa) dugc ghi chi sd theo i Wj^ : la trgng sd ciia moi \du td chinh N: sd >eu td chinh mdi tdc nhan ddng gdp Sau dd: LVI-IPCC= (e-a)*s e: su phd bay s: Id su nhgy cam/tinh de hi t6n thuang a: kha nang thich iing Ket qua nghien cihi va thao luan 4.L Doi net ve xa Dat Mui' 4,1.1 Dieu kien tif nhien Vi tri dja ly: Xa Dat Mui cd didn tich ty nhien 14.754.83 ha, sdng ngdi chang chit, bd bidn dai 34 km, each trung tam huyen 70 km di theo dudng thuy, 43 km di theo dudng chim bay giao thdng di lai giita xa vdi ben ngoai va cac ap xd chu yeu bing dudng thuy Todn bd ranli gidi hanh chinh xa Dat Mui gdm 15 dp: Tdc Gdc, Khai Long Cai Hoang, Ba Huong, Cai Xep Rgch Thg Cai Mdi, Rgch Tau, Rach Tau Ddng Kinh Ddo, Kinh Dao Ddng, Kinh Dao Tdy, Miii Lach Vdm va Con Mui Vdi ranh gidi tii can nhu sau; PhiaBacgidpBidnTayvdxa Vidn An phia Nam giap Bien Ddng, phia Ddng gidp xa Vidn An, phia Tay giap Bien Tay Bang 3: KHI HAU T H d l TIET HUYEN NGOC HIEN ThM tiet Nhi^t d9 D9 am Don vj tinh "C Nhiet eao nhat {thing 6) °C 28.8 Nhi?t dp thap nhat (thing 1) "C 25,1 Dp am trung binh nim % % % Dp am cao nhat (thing 12) Dp am cao nhat (thing 3) So gio ndng LuQlig mua Lu'Ong thoi tiet Nhiet dp trung binh nam 27.4 83 89 78 Sd gio ning trung binh nim gio 1.913.6 Sd gia ning cao nhit (thing 3) 248.4 Sd gid ning thap nhat (thing 9) gio gio Lupng mua trung binh nam mm 2.228 Lu(;mg mua cao nhat (thing 9) mm 488.3 Lupoig mua thap nhat (thing 3) mm 1.6 Ngudn: Chi cyc Thiiy l(ri tinh Cd Mau UBND xa oil Mai(201l), D^dn xay dyng n6ng thdn mdi xa Dit Mui, huy^n Ngpe HiSn, tinh Ci Mau [ ^ A v n TTV KVCiA HOC CAiCt TillC 80.9 Nghien cOu khoa hge '^hmtg 10 nam 2(,n\ Khi hau thai tiit: Vimg mang hau nhiet dcd gid miia can xich dao Mdt nam cd itiiia rd ret: mita mua tir thing ddn thang 11, triing vtji gid mua Ha voi hxximg gid thinh hanh la Tay - Tay Nam, mita khd tir thing 12 den thing nam sau, triing voi gid miia Ddng, hudng gid thinh hanh li Dong - Ddng Bic Chd dp mua vi gid thinh hinh theo mita da tic ddng den cdng trinh ting nghd ci, nhit li d cic dio, hinh nen cac bgn ca, bSn neo dau khic de tau thuySn neo dau phit hop theo miia Bia hinh: Tuong ddi bing phing nhien viing dit phia Tay bj phii sa boi dip mdi nen cd dia hinh ven Men thip, cao din vio ben ndi dia, bi chia cit manh bdi he thdng sdng rach va kenh muong ching chjt, co nhik sdng rdng nhu: sdng Ba Dinh, song Rach Tau, kenh Vtai Xoay Cao trung binh 0,5-0,7m, thuang xuyen ngap tridu bidn dang, rieng vimg ven bien Ddtig cd dja hinh cao hem Bia chit: Do hinh thinh tir cic trim tich biSn tre nen nhin chung ndn dat ydu, lop biin hflu CO vi set hilu co diy tit 0,7-1,7m, lop biin set day 1,3-1,4m Dpe theo bien Ddng li dat bai biin, chit dit xa hiu hdt li dit thit cd ciu true dia ting yeu Thuy van: Xa Dit Miii li ncri nhit ed ci her bidn phia Ddng va bd bidn phia lay, xa Dit Mui nim vd phia Tay tinh Ci Mau nen chiu tie ddng trirc tidp cita ca hai chd dp thuy tridu: ban nhit tridu bidn Ddng vi nhat trieu bidn Tay Bien dp tridu dao ddng tir l-l,5m Che trieu phtie tap di tao nen mpng lucti sdng ngdi ching chjt thuin lgi cho viec danh bit, nudi ttdng thuy sin, hai sin, bdi ling phit sa va phit trien giao thdng fliiiy 4.1.2 Tmh hinh phat triin Iiinh ti va xa hfi Phan bd ddn cu: Dan s6 xa Dit MOi phin bd khdng ddng ddu, sdng tip trung doc theo cac tuy^n sdng, rgch (sdng Rach Tiu, cira Vim Xoay, sdng Ba Dinh, sdng Tic Gdc, kinh O Rd, kinh Cut, tach Bi Huang, ) Dan cu tap trung ddng nhit li khu vue ng§ ba Cira Vim Xoiy va sdng Rach Tau Mat dp dan cu cdn thua thdt, rii ric ngudi dan sinh sdng kdt hpp vdi nudi trdng thiiy sin vi sin xuit ndng nghi?p Cic tuy^n dan cu phit trien tu phit, chua cd su quin ly chit ch8 Bang 4: HIEN TR^NG DAT DAI, DAN SO XA DAT IVlCl Ap STT Difn tich (ha) S6h$ Din so (nguiri) 1.269 958,02 293 3.137,48 216 936 391,92 272 1.178 Mui cha Mui Lgch Vim Kinh Dio Tay 202,33 164 710 Kinh Dio Ddng 260,92 342 1.481 Kinh Dio 85,08 331 1.434 TH6NG TIN KHOA HOC GIAO DUt Jhdnt/ 10 nam Ngnten 2015 cuu Knoa nau 3.241,22 319 1.382 899,70 255 1.104 1.888.82 346 1.499 Cii Xep 488.06 178 771 11 B i Hucmg 444.61 257 1.113 12 Cai Hoang 822,07 283 1.226 13 Cii Mdi 261.75 209 905 14 Khai Long 970,76 233 1.009 15 Tie Gdc 702,09 202 875 Tdng 14.754,83 3.900 16.892 Rach Tau Rach Tiu Ddng Rach Thp 10 NguSn: UBND xd Ddt Mm 2011 Ddn s6: Tinh ddn nam 2011 toan xa Dit Mui cd 3.900 hp gia dinh vdi 16.892 nhan khiu Dan cu sdng tip trung chiem 45%, 55% sdng ven cae tuydn sdng rach Mat dp din sd binh quan eiia xi li 115 ngucti/km- Hien tai, xa Dit Mui ed dan tde (Kinh, Khmer, Hoa Muong Chau Rd), cd tdn giio (Thien Chua, Cao Dai, Tin Lanh Hda Hao) vcri 501 ngudi theo dao Hd ngheo hd can ngheo chidm tren 15% tdng sd hp toin xi, gia dinh chinh sach ed 58 hd cd 62 ddi tucmg dupc ho trp thudng xuyen Xi da tridn khai thuc hien dupc phong trio ke hoach hda gia dinh mdt each tich cue rdng rii \ a dat dupc kdt qui tot Trong nhirng nim gin day t\ Id tang din sd cua xi tuong ddi dn djnh, vai t> Id ting din sd tu nhien ctia xa li 1% Co cdu Iiinh li: Khu vuc I ( Ndng - lim - ngu nghiep): chidm khoang 78% Dat Mui li xa giap bidn viji he thdng sdng rach da\ die nen nudi trdng \ a khai thie thtiy hii sin la nginh kinh td chinh xi Dit Mui Khu vuc 11 (Cdng nghiep Tidu thti cdng nghiep - Xay dung): chiem khoang 3% Khu vue 111 (Thucmg mai - Dich vu): chidm khoang 19% Mire sdng dan cu: Thu nhip binh quin diu ngucri nim 2011 ctia xi Dit Mui khoing 15 tri?u ddng/ngudi/nim, mirc thu nh?p niy thip han so vai thu nhip binh quan diu ngudi tinh Ci Mau Sd lu