Đang tải... (xem toàn văn)
Dir BAO QUY MO HOC SINH VA GIAO VIEN TRUNG HOC CO SO HUYEN HAI LANG, T I N H QUANG TRI GIAI DOAN 2011 2020 ThS NGUYEN HA DONG Trudng Dgi hgc Supham Dgi hpc Hui NCUYENDANG PHUNG Phdng Gido diic vd Ddo[.]
Dir BAO QUY MO HOC SINH VA GIAO VIEN TRUNG HOC CO SO HUYEN HAI LANG, T I N H QUANG TRI GIAI DOAN 2011-2020 ThS NGUYEN HA DONG Trudng Dgi hgc Supham - Dgi hpc Hui NCUYENDANG PHUNG Phdng Gido diic vd Ddo lao Hdi Ldng - Qudng Tri T6m tat: Du bao quy mo giao due trung hgc ca sd (THCS) noi chung, quy mo hpc smh va dpi ngu giio vien trung hpc co sd noirigngla nhiem vy cd y nghia rat quan ttpng ttong cdng tac quan ly giao due d cip huyen Npi dung du bao quy md hpc sinh va ddi ngu giao vien trung hpc ca sd huyen Hai LSng, tinh Quing Tri giai doan 2011-2020 khong chi giiip cac cip quan ly giao dye d dia phuong cd CO sd khoa hpc dl xay dung quy hogch, kl hoach phat ttiln giao due dia phuang co tinh kha thi cao, nang cao chat lugng giao due loan dien, mi cdn gop phan giup cac co sd dao tao giao vien co so lieu khao sat nhu cau dio taottongthdi gian tdi I.MCJDAU Dy bao la cdng tic ed y nghia quan trgng nhim tao co sd khoa hgc cho hoach djnh ehinh sach va xay dung eic chuong trinh phit ttiln kinh tl - xa hgi (KT-XH) Dy bao quy md giio due giiip lap quy hogch, kl hogeh dim bao eac dilu kien cin ddi dgi ngu, kmh pM, CO sd vit chit Viee ehii ddng dy bao quy rad giao dye Iudn ed y nghia quan frgng, mang tinh quylt dinh din chit lugng ciia cic bin quy hogeh, kl hogeh Nghj quylt Hgi nghi lan thd Ban chip hinh Trung uong Ding khoi "VIII, vl dinh hudng cMen luge phit trien giio dye vi dio tao (GD&DT) ttong thdi 1^ cdng ngMep hda - hien dgi hda neu ro: "Tdng cudng cdng tdc dy bdo vd ke hoach hod sy nghiip gido dye Dua gido due vdo quy hogch long the phdt trien KT-XH caa cd nude vd timg dia phuang Cd chinh sdch diiu Hit quy md vd co cdu dao tao cho phii hgp vdi nhu cdu phdt triin KT-XH, khdc phuc llnh trgng mdt cdn ddi hien gdn ddo tgo voi su dung." [2] Hi^n nay, d huyen Hai Lang tinh CJuang Tri chua eo sd lieu dy bao dai han ve quy md giio dye trung hgc eg sd, mi frpng tam Ii dy bio quy md hgc smh v i dgi ngu giio vien Vi vgy, cdng tie xay dyng quy hoach, ke hogch edn gip nhieu khd khin, bit cap, tMeu tinh toan dien, din den thilu chu ddng frong viec xay dyng kl hoach phit trien mgng ludi ttudng ldp, dpi ngfl giao vien lim xuit hien tmh frang thua thilu cyc bd vi phit sinh nhiing vin dl kho giai quylt Ndu vin de dy bio quy md hge sinh va ddi ngfl giao vien dugc nghien ciiu, xiy dyng fren co sd khoa hge, mang linh dii hgn, phii hgp vdi fliyc tiln se gdp phin lao nen tinh ehu ddng ttong cdng tic quan ly giao due THl/C TRANG QUY MO HQC SINH VA GIAO VIEN TRUNG HOC CO SCJ HUYEN H A I LANG NAM HOC 2010-2011 2.1 Hoc sinh: Theo sd lieu thdng ke eua Phdng GD&DT Hai Lang [3]: Nim hgc 20102011, huyen Hii Lang tinh Quang Tri cd 19 frudng THCS vdi 7.414 hgc sinh v i 216 ldp Tap chi Khoa hoc vk Giao due, Tnrdng Dai hoc Su pham Hue ISSN 1859-1612, S6 01(21}/2012,tt 156-162 DUBAO QUY MO HOC SINH VA GIAO VIEN THCS HUY^N HAI L.\NG TINH QUANG TR| i57 Bmh quin mdi ldp ed 34 hgc smh; mdi trudng ed 11 ldp Ti le hgc sinh THCS tren din sd hioi 11-14 mdi la: 95,65%; ti le huy dgng hge sinh vao ldp 6: 99,8%; ti 1? len ldp: 99,48%; luu ban: 0,35%; bd hge: 0,17%; ti le tdt ngMdp THCS: 98,91% Ti le huy ddng cao la diu hieu tieh eye frong viee dam bao quyen lgi cho tre era cd co hdi dugc den trudng, tiln den tang ti Ie phd cgp giio dye THCS 2.2 Giao vien Bang I Thdng ke dgi ngU GV THCS ndm hgc 2010-2011 Dan vi linh: Ngudi Tieu chi Tong so GVVan GVSii GVDia GV Toan GVLy GVHoa GVSinh GV KTCN, NN GV TDTT GV Tieng Anh GV GDCT GVTin GV Am nhac GV My thuat GV Doan/Dpi Tong 462 75 23 22 76 31 19 35 24 23 43 19 19 16 18 19 Hien CO Thac si DH 221 31 18 10 29 15 12 16 12 43 11 12 CO 236 42 12 47 16 19 23 11 11 14 16 TC 1 Nhu cau Thieu 469 75 23 22 76 31 19 35 24 23 44 19 21 19 19 19 0 0 0 0 I Thira (Ngudn: Phdng GD&DT Hdi Ldng) Theo sd lieu thdng ke, sd lugng giao vien THCS di duge dam bao theo nhu ciu 100% giio vien THCS cd frmh dgt chuin, dd ti±tii dd dai hge frd len cMlm 48,48% (224/462) DU BAO QUY MO HQC SINH VA GIAO VIEN TRUNG HOC CO S HUYEN HAI LANG GIAI DOAN 2011-2020 3.1 Dy bio so lugng hgc sinh trung hgc co sd Du bio sd lugng hgc sinh THCS din trudng li cdng tie frgng tim eiia dy bao quy md giio due THCS Chi lieu sd lugng hgc sinh se la eo sd de xiy dyng dy bio mang ludi trudng ldp, dy bao dieu kien dam bao quy md giio dye frong cd dgi ngu giao vien Tham khio de xuit cua tie gii Le Khinh Tuin tti tii Ueu "Dy bio v i kl hogeh hoa frong quin ly giao dye" [4], ehiing tdi tiln hanh dy bio s6 lupng hgc smh THCS giai dogn 2011-2020 fren phuong in Phuang in 1: Su dyng phin mim VANPRO cua Bd NGUYEN HA DONG - NGUYEN DANG PHU"NG Giao due va Dio tgo Phuong in 2: Phuong phap ngogi suy xu the ti le hpc sinh di hgc frong dan sd dp tudi Phuong an 3: Cin cd eac cM tieu phit ttiln KT-XH va giao dye cua huyen Hii Lang giai doan 2011-2020 Phuong in 4: Phuang phap ehuyen gia Bang Tdng hgp kit qud du bdo sd lugng hgc sinh THCS qua phucmg dn Nam hoc 20152016 20202021 Ket qua du bao Phuang an Phuong an Phuong an Phuang an S6 HS (nguoi) 6.269 7.292 6.562 6.528 Ti le HS/DSn so tu6i (%) 93,15 108,34 97,50 97,00 S6 HS (nguoi) 5.850 6.865 5.778 5.778 Ti le HS/Dan so tuoi (%) 99,22 116,43 98,00 98,00 Phdn tich: - Phuang in I: Su dung phin mim VANPRO cua Bd GD&DT de du bio sd lugng hgc sinh THCS Kel qua tinh loan dya fren co sd sd Ueu ciia nam dinh gdc, ti le tre ldp THCS fren din sd tudi II-I4 eua ky dy bao ddng thdi xet den nMlu ylu td ehu quan tie dgng khac nhu: sd tre tudi vio ldp 1, sd hge sinh tuyen mdi vio ldp 6, ti le len ldp, luu ban, dan sd tudi 11-14 tudi Theo phuang an niy, sd hpc sinh THCS giam din frong giai doan 2011-2020 Kit qui eua phuong an I khdng khae nMlu so vdi phuang in 3, tuong ddi phu hgp so vdi mye tieu dat ra, cic sd lieu dy bio cd co sd tin ciy; hon niia, tinh binb din sd tren dia ban huyen dn dinh Men ddng khdng dang ke nen hgn che duge nhugc didm cua cae phep tinh toan frong phan mem - Phuong in 2: Kit qui tmh loan cua phuong in phy tiiuge vao xu Ihl phit ttien sd iugng hpc sinh eua 10 nim trudc Tren ca sd ham xu the phit ttien ta tmh duge ti le hpc smh THCS giai dogn 2011-2020 Tuy nMen, ti le huy ddng hgc sinh THCS fren 100% li eon sd thilu tiiye tl, vi it ed hpc sinh noi khic chuyen din de tang ti le nhgp hpc Phuong an chi phan anh ehinh xic ti le hpc smh frong dp tudi din sd mong ddi dn dinh ma khdng can cu vao eac ylu td khic nhu ti le len ldp, luu ban, bd hgc; khdng dya vao dinh hudng phit ttiln KT-XH cua dia phuong frong ky dy bao Do do, kit qua ciia phuong in ehua sat tmh Mnh thye te ciia dja phuong - Phuang an 3: Phuong an dua vio cic mue tieu phat triln KT-XH ciia huyen Hai Ling giai doan 2011-2020 Mue tieu duge xiy dyng hi tiiyc tiln, cd tinh den cic yeu td chu quan, khich quan v i nhiing vin dl tim Iy xa hdi, ttuyin thdng dia phuong Cieh tinh toin ttong phuang in da khdng xet din eac ylu td len ldp, luu ban, bd hgc, day la nhdng ylu td quan trgng de phan ludng hgc smb - Phuang an 4: Cae ehuyen gia duge hdi y kiln d phuong an diu la nhirng ngudi cd kinh ngMem ttong cdng tic quin ly giao due eac cip, Igp kl hogeh giao dye, nMeu nim lam cdng tic cM dao dilu ttn, phd cap giio due THCS; am Meu die diem, vi fri dia ly, phong tue lip quin, tinh Mnh phat tiiln vin hda, xa hdi cua dia phuang Ket qua DU BAO QUY MO HQC SINH VA G L \ VIEN THCS HU1TN HAI LANG, TINH QUANG TRI .159 phuang in gin gidng phuong an yi Tuy nMen, mdi chuyen gia chi ehuj^en siu vio mgt linh vye ma hg phu frach, tiiilu cii nMn loan cyc nen dinh gii cd phan cam tinh Do viy, ed thd su dung phuong in de kiem ehiing phuang in ehgn Tu viec phan tieh phuang in fren, chiing tdi chgn phuang in I lam eo sd du bio quy md hpc sinh THCS huyen Hii Lang giai doan 2011-2020 Bang Kit qud du bdo sd lugng HS THCS theo phucmg dn chgn Dan vi linh • Hoc sinh N3m hgc SL 20112012 6.995 20132014 20122013 6.577 6.905 20142015 6.403 20152016 6.269 20162017 6.068 20172018 20182019 20192020 20202021 6.018 5.909 5.845 5.850 Theo kit qua du bio eua phuang in nhu bang 3, sd lugng hpc sinh THCS giam din lir nim hgc 2011-2012 din nim hge 2020-2021 Mac du ti le huy ddng hgc sinh ttong dp tudi cang cao (tir 95,65% nam 2011 len 98% nim 2020); ti le luu ban, bd hgc giam (tir 0,52% nam 2011 xudng cdn 0,2% nam 2020) [I], nhung sd lugng hgc sinh vin giam, dilu hoan loan phii hop vdi ehinh sach dan sd - ke hoach hoa gia dinh dugc tiiyc Men theo Nghj quyil Dgi hdi Dang bd hu^en Hai Ling lin fliu XIV [I]: "Giim ti le ling dan sd ttJ nMen tir 1,25% nim 2010 xudng edn 0,9% nim 2020" Day chmh la vin dl cic cip quan ly giio dye ein quan lim de huy ddng tdi da tte frong tudi ddn trudng; hgn ehl hgc sinh luu ban, bd hpc; dim bio cac dieu kien de ning cao chat lugng giao dye 3.2 Dtr bao so lirgng tnrdng, ldp trung hgc co sd De dy bao mgng ludi trudng ldp, chiing tdi dya tten cin ed cua Luit Giao dye (2005); can cu Dilu le trudng THCS, trudng tnmg hpc phd thdng v i trudng phd thdng ed nhieu eip hgc (Ban hanh kem Thdng tu sd 12/2011/TT-BGDDT 28/3/2011 eua BO trudng bg GD&DT); can cu vao mue tieu phat trien KT-XH eiia huyen Hai Lang giai doan 2011-2020; cin cu vio kit qui dy bio quy md hge sinh THCS giai dogn 20112020 Kit qua dy bio dugc thi hien d bing Bang Dubdosd lugng Irudng ldp THCS giai dogn 2011-2020 Nam hoc Tong so tmong Tong so lop Binh quan Icrp/trucmg Binh quan HS/16p 2011-2012 19 212 11 33 2012-2013 19 209 11 33 2013-2014 19 199 10 33 2014-2015 19 194 10 33 2015-2016 19 190 10 33 2016-2017 19 184 10 33 2017-2018 19 182 10 33 NGUYEN HA BONG - NGUYEN DANG PHUNG Nam hoc Tong so tmdng Tong so ldp Binh quan lop/tniong Bmh quan HS/ldp 2018-2019 19 185 10 32 2019-2020 19 183 10 32 2020-2021 19 183 10 32 Quy md hgc sinh THCS giai doan 2011-2020 giam din nen sd lugng ldp giam di dang kl, cac trudng THCS deu nam frong khung danh gia eua trudng hang (sd ldp nhd hon 18) Dd dap ling nhu ciu hgc tap, giu vung phd cap giio dye THCS, dat chuan phd cap giao due bic trung hgc, Nghj quyet Dgi hgi Dang bd huyen Hai Lang lin thu XTV da cM rd: "Sdp xip, hodn thiin hi thdng mgng ludi tru&ng ldp ddm bdo mdi xd thi trdn cd it nhdt mgt tnr&ng tieu hgc vd cd mpt tru&ng trung hgc ca s& (trir xd Hdi Thdnh) " [1] Nhu viy, se khdng sit nhip eic trudng cd quy md nhd, thay vio giim sT sd hge sinh/ldp de cd dieu kidn ning cao chat lugng day hge 3 Du bao sd lirgng giao vien trung hgc co so ok dy bio dpi ngu giao vien THCS, ehung tdi can cu vao quy md mgng ludi trudng ldp THCS huyen Hai Ling giai doan 20! 1-2020; cin cu dinh muc bien che theo Thdng tu lien tich sd 35/2006/TTL-BGD&DT-BNV; can eu Dilu le ttudng ttung hgc co sd Men hanh; cin cd thyc trgng dpi ngu giio vien dugc thdng ke d bang I Ket qui du bio duge the Mend bang Bang Dy bdosd lugng GV THCS giai dogn 2011-2020 Don vi linh: Ngudi THCS Nam hoc Nhu cau chung siao ^^en So giao vien hien CO hoac se CO So giao vien hao hut So giao vien can bo simg 2011-2012 422 462 Thira 34 2012-2013 416 422 2013-2014 397 416 Thira 15 2014-2015 388 397 Thira 2015-2016 380 388 Thira 2016-2017 369 380 Thira 2017-2018 365 369 Thira 2018-2019 371 365 Thieu 14 2019-2020 367 371 Thieu 2020-2021 367 367 Thieu DU BAO QUY MO HOC SINH VA G L \ VIEN THCS HUYEN H-^I U^NG TINH QUANG •TR1 16I Ket qui dy bio d bing eho thiy: Giao vien THCS thua nMeu frong giai doan 2011 -2020 sd lugng giao vien ngM him khdng ding kl, frong kM sd lugng hgc smh giim din frong ky dy bio Day la bai toan cin quan tam eua cac cap quan ly giio due d huyen Hai Lang de giii quyet vin de doi du giao vien frong thdi gian tdi DE XUAT MOT SO BIEN PHAP 4.1 Tang cudng su iinh dao, chi dao cua Dang, chinh quyen dia phuong ddi vdi giao due trung hgc co sd Dya fren kit qua dy bao, phdng GD&DT tham muu UBND huyen xiy dung quy hoach, kl hogch phit trien giio dye giai dogn 2011-2020, tu Iam co sd de xay dyng chuang trinh hinh dgng ciia cic cip iiy Ding, chinh quyen dia phuong tir huyen den cac xi, thi trin; lam co sd cho nginh giio dye frien khai xay dyng kl hogch hang nim ed tinh kha tMeao CM dao cic trudng xiy dyng ke hoach phit triln giio due theo tung giai doan nam hoic 10 nim; xiy dyng kl hoach timg nim, thing mgt cich cM tiet, ed dg tin cay va tinh tiii eao Cic chi tieu, bien phip kM xiy dung kl hoach phai duge dit frong quy hoach tdng thd cua huyen ve phit trien kinh te - xa bdi v i giao dye 4.2 Hoin thien he thdng mang ludi tnrdng Idp, huy dgng tdi da dan sd tudi den trudng Sip xep, hoan iMen, dn dinh hd thdng mang ludi trudng ldp Phan diu binh quan hing nim ed ttudng THCS dgt chuin quddc gia Rd ring, kM trudng dat duge ehuin qudc gia, eo sd vgl ehit phai duge dam bao d muc ldi tMlu, chat lugng ddi ngii nha giao ciing duge tang len, gdp phin ning eao Meu qua giao dye toan dien Thyc hidn ed Men qua chuong trinh muc tieu qudc gia, chuang frinh kien cd hda trudng ldp hge v i nhi edng vy eho giao vien Phdi hgp ddng bd, cd Men qua giua cic cip, cac nganh; xiy dyng mdi quan he giiia gia dmh nhi trudng- xa hgi ngiy cing khing kbit dl trao ddi thong tin, cd bien phap huy dgng hgc sinh den trudng Bing nMeu bien p h ^ dilu fra, khao sit, thdng kd; Myen tmyen, van ddng, giup dd nhung trudng hgp khd khin de huy dgng tdi da din sd tudi din trudng Han che thip nhat hgc sinh luu ban, bd hge 4.3 Dam bao ddng bo ve co ciu, nang cao chat lugng dgi ngu n h i giio Cd ke hogch ein ddi sd lugng giio vien ddi du Dilu chinh, bd sung dl an luin chuyin cin bd, giao vien mpt cieh hop ly, tgo dilu kien nang cao chit lugng giio due frong toan huyen mgt cich tuang ddi ddng deu va edng bang eho mgi doi tugng; Cu giio vien hgc tip ning eao trinb dp tten ehuin, ttong khuyin kMch giio vien THCS hoc eao hpc Diy mgnh cic hoat ddng nham nang cao chit lugng giing day, giao dye: tiii giio vien dgy gidi, kilm tt^ tiianh fra; diy mgnh phong trao tM dua "day tdt- NGUYEN HA DONG - NGUYEN DANG PHUNG hgc tdt"; tang eudng ung dung cdng nghe tiidng tin; quan ly tdt vi su dung cd Meu qui tMit bj day hge KET LUAN Qua khao ngMem ve mat nhgn thuc dp tin eiy ket qui dy bio vdi 50 can bg quin ly gdm lanh dao, chuyen vien Phdng GD&DT Hai Ling, hieu tnrdng, phd Meu ttudng 19 trudng THCS tten dia ban huyen, chiing tdi thay: 100% y kiln cho ring kit qua dy bao d muc Cd lin ciy vi Tin cay cao Viec dy bio quy rad hpc sinh THCS huyen Hii Ling giai dogn 2011 -2020 la ndi dung rit quan frpng, khdng ehi la eo sd khoa hge de cic cip quan Iy giio dye xay dung quy hoach phat trien giao dye THCS sit diing vdi linh hinh thye te ciia dia phuong ma edn la eo sd de dy bao nhu eiu dao tgo \a dao tao lai giio vien THCS cd trinh dgi hgc v i fren dgi hgc cie trudng dgi hgc va cao ding su phara TAI LIEU THAM KHAO [1] [2] [3] [4] Ding bd huyen Hai Lang (2010) Nghi quyet Dgi hgi Dgi bieu idn thir XIV, nhiem ky 2010-2015 Hai Lang Dang Cgng san Viet Nam (1997) Nghi quyit Hdi nghi ldn thu BCHTWDdng khda VIII NXB Chinh fri Qudc gia Hi Ndi Phdng GD&DT Hii Lang (2010) Tap bdo cdo tdng kil lu 2000 din 2010 Hai Lang Le Khanh Tuan (2009) Dy bdo vd ke hogch hda qudn ly gido due, NXB Giao due Ha Ndi Title: FORECASTING OF JUNIOR STUDENT AND TEACHER SCALE IN HAI LANG DISTRICT, QUANG TRI PROVINCE PERIOD OF 2011-2020 Abstract: The forcasting of junior education scale in general, the forcasting of junior students and teachers scale in particular is the important task m the educational management in the district The forcasting content of junior students and teachers scale in Hai Lang disttict, Quang Tri provmce period of 2011-2020 are not only give to all levels of educational managements of local education has a scientific basis for planning, and plan to develop local education feasibly, improving tiie quality of comprehensive education, but also help the teacher ttaining institutions have data in training needs in the future ThS NGUYEN HA DONG Phdng Dao tgo Dai hoc, Tmdng Dai hoc Su phgm - Dai hoc Hui DT: 0914.063.677 Email: ddoongsp@gmail.com ThS NGUYEN DANG PHUNG Phong Giao due va Dao tao Hai Lang DT: 0947.126.151 Email: phungpgdhlqt@gmail.com ... 12 /2011/ TT-BGDDT 28/3 /2011 eua BO trudng bg GD&DT); can cu vao mue tieu phat trien KT-XH eiia huyen Hai Lang giai doan 2011- 2020; cin cu vio kit qui dy bio quy md hge sinh THCS giai dogn 20112 020... 48,48% (224/462) DU BAO QUY MO HQC SINH VA GIAO VIEN TRUNG HOC CO S HUYEN HAI LANG GIAI DOAN 2011- 2020 3.1 Dy bio so lugng hgc sinh trung hgc co sd Du bio sd lugng hgc sinh THCS din trudng li... 201 92020 2 020202 1 6.018 5.909 5.845 5.850 Theo kit qua du bio eua phuang in nhu bang 3, sd lugng hpc sinh THCS giam din lir nim hgc 2011- 2012 din nim hge 2020- 2021 Mac du ti le huy ddng hgc sinh