THÔNG TIN TÀI LIỆU
Nghien citu Quoc te so 2(81), 6/2010: 49-64 CONG DONG CHAU A - THAI BINH DlTONG Y TlTOfNG VA TRIEN VONG HINH THANH Trinh Thi Tam* i,u Siic manh kinh te dang dich chuyen tir Tay sang Ddng, tir Dai Tay Duong sang chau A - Thai Binh Duong, vdi sy vuon len manh me cua Trung Qudc va An Dp ciing nhu cua cac nen kinh te nang ddng khac khu vyc Sy chuyen dich ve kinh te keo theo sy chuyen dich ve trpng tam chinh tri va an ninh Ben canh cac van de truyen thdng nhu ban dao Trieu Tien, tranh chap bien gidi - lanh thd, sy de dpa phd bien vii hiiy diet hang loat , chau A - Thai Binh Duong dang ddi mat vdi nhieu thach thiic lien qudc gia mdi bat ngudn tir tdc dp phat trien manh me va nhanh chdng ciia khu vyc nhu bien ddi hau, an ninh tai nguyen va luong thyc, an ninh sinh hpc va chii nghTa khung bd, ddi hdi phai cd ddi thoai va hpp tac giiia cac nudc, dac biet la cac nudc Idn Trong do, khdng mdt td chiic hay co che hien cd khu vyc dii toan dien ca ve vien lan chu de thao luan de cd the ddi phd vdi nhirng thach thirc '•'••"'•''• "'""' '" ' •'•; - ' • Vdi nhan thiic tren, thdi gian qua, nhieu nudc da dua cac sang kien ve cau tnic khu vyc, dd dang luu y la sang kien ve Cdng ddng chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APC) Thu tudng 6-xtray-li-a, dng Ke-vin * Vu Ddng Nam A - Nam A - Nam Thai Binh Duong, Bd Ngoai giao 6/2010 49 • a c/idu A - Thdi Binh Duang Riit lan dau tien dua tai cuoc hpp cua Hdi Chau A td chiic tai Xit-ni 4/6/2008.^^ Tuy day la sang kien mdi cua 6-xtray-li-a, y tudng cdn chua cu the, dang qua trinh tham dd, lang nghe y kien ciia cac nudc de hoan thien, nhung neu cdng, dd se la mdt van de lau dai va cd quy md rpng vdi sy tham gia cua nhieu nudc tren cac chau luc khac Qua trinh 6-xtray-li-a van ddng cac nudc de hinh APC cd the tao nhirng cp xat nhat dinh giiia cac nudc Idn va nhiing thay ddi ve cue dien d khu vyc chau A - Thai Binh Duong Hoan canh doi cua APC Trong nhiing nam dau cua the ky 21, chau A - Thai Binh Duong da thu hiit dupe sy quan tam cua nhieu nudc va cac khu vyc khac tren the gidi bdi sy phat trien kinh te nang ddng va tuong ddi dn dinh ve an ninh chinh tri Neu nhu d the ky 20, trung tam dia chien luge the gidi chuyen tir chau Au sang My thi the ky 21 la chau A - Thai Binh Duong Cac nudc chau A - Thai Binh Duong chiem 60% dan sd the gidi, 54% GDP va 44% thuong mai toan cau^" dang ddng gdp dang ke cho nen kinh te the gidi Ngay giai doan khiing hoang kinh te - tai chinh the gidi, nhieu nen kinh te d khu vyc van tiep tuc tang trudng vdi tdc cao (Trung Qudc dat 8,7%,'' An Dp dat 6,9%" nam 2009) Day ciing la khu vyc cd vi tri dia chien luge quan trpng nen dugc nhieu nudc Idn ciing nhu ngoai khu vyc quan tam va tranh gianh anh hudng Thdi gian gan day, khu vyc chiing kien nhieu ddng thai minh chiing cho su •" Bai phat bieu "Den luc xay dung mdt Cdng ddng chau A - Thai Binh Duang" cua Thu tudng Ke-vin Rut tai cuoc hpp cua Hdi Chau A, Xit-ni, 04/6/2008, xem http://w.w.w.pm.gov.au/media/speech 0286.cfm '" Cac sd lieu lay Bao cao Ngan hang The gidi 2009 " Sd lieu ciia Cue Thdng ke Trung Qudc, CNN, 01/01/2010 " Sd lieu cua Trung tam Giam sat kinh te An Dp, 27/01/2010, http://www.bsc.com.vn/ News/2010/1 /27/80213 aspx ^b 6/2010 Nghien citu Quoc te so 2(81) quay trd lai cua My, sy tham gia tich eye va nang dpng hon ciia Nga, Nhat Ban bdi canh Trung Qudc dang trdi day hda binh va An Dp la cudng qudc dang ndi len Cac td chirc va the che khu vyc da tdn tai d chau A - Thai Binh Duong deu da cd nhung ddng gdp quy bau cho sy phat trien cua khu vyc Hiep hdi cac qudc gia Ddng Nam A (ASEAN), Dien dan Hop tac Kinh te chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC), Hdi nghi Cap cao Ddng A (EAS), ASEAN-i-3, Dien dan Khu vyc ASEAN (ARF) va cac the che khac da va dang thiic day hpp tac kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh va cae dang hpp tac khac Tuy nhien, xet tren nhieu gdc dp, cac the che hien cd d khu vyc deu khdng du toan dien ca ve vien lan chu de thao luan de cd the ddi phd vdi nhirng thach thirc tuong lai ciia khu vyc APEC khdng cd An Dp va nang ve kinh te; ASEAN+3, EAS thieu sy tham gia ciia cac nudc Idn nhu My, Nga; ARF qua ddng vien, khdng cd co che hpp d cap nguyen thii va hieu qua chua cao Td chirc Hop tac Thuong Hai (SCO) khdng cd sy tham gia ciia My va Nhat Ban Them vao do, Trung Qudc cung khdng thoai mai vdi nhOng the che cd sy tham gia cua Dai Loan (nhu APEC) Chau A - Thai Binh Duong ciing dang chimg kien cang nhieu loai hinh lien ket giiia cac nudc va nhdm nuoc vdi qua trinh toan cau hda, khu vyc hda dien manh me Neu nam 1990 mdi chi cd Hiep dinh Ty thuang mai (FTA) ndi khdi thi den nam 2009 da cd tdi 32 FTA khu vuc va 36 FTA giira cac nudc khu vyc vdi cac ddi tac khac Cac hinh thiic hop tac tieu viing, tieu khu vyc ciing phat trien manh me, vdi sy ddi ciia mdt loat cac co che nhu Hpp tac tieu viing sdng Me-cdng (GMS), Hpp tac bdn nudc Cam-pu-chia Lao Viet Nam, Mi-an-ma (CLMV), Hpp tac nudc Viet Nam, Lao, Cam-pu-chia, Mi-an-ma, Thai Lan (ACMECS), Hanh lang Kinh te Ddng Tay (EWEC) Sy dan xen lgi ich chinh tri, an ninh va kinh te ciia cac nudc khu vyc cang trd nen rd net 6/2010 51 Chau A - Thdi Binh Duang 6-xtray-li-a la nudc da cd nhiing cdng kha an tugng viec dat dau an d chau A Nam 1989, cyu Thu tudng Hawke da dua sang kiln lap Dien dan Hop tac Kinh te chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC), sau dugc cyu Thu tudng Keating ciing Tdng thdng Clinton tai CO ciu Hdi nghi Cap cao APEC Cyu Thu tudng John Howard gianh dugc cho 6-xtray-li-a vi tri tai Hdi nghi Cap cao Ddng A (EAS) Theo chan nhirng ngudi tien nhiem, Thu tudng Ke-vin Riit ciing td khat khao xay dyng mdt hinh anh 6-xtray-li-a cd vai trd va vi the cang cao d khu vyc va tren the gidi Ngay sau gianh thang lgi cuoc tdng tuyen eir thang 11/2007, chinh phu Cdng dang cua Thu tudng Kevin Riit da tich eye trien khai chinh sach ddi ngoai mdi vdi ba try cot chinh, dd la: (i) tang cudng quan he ddng minh vdi My, (ii) nang cao vi the tai Lien Hiep Qudc va (iii) day manh quan he vdd cac nudc khu vyc chau A - Thai Binh Duong Trong qua trinh trien khai try cot thii ba, Thii tudng Riit da thiic day lap APC, mdt co che hpp tac mdi khu vyc vdi lap luan "trung tam dia chien luge va dia kinh te ciia the gidi dang chuyen dich tdi khu vyc chau A" Vdi sang kien nay, 6-xtray-Ii-a mudn cd vai trd mdt tap hpp mdi d chau A - Thai Binh Duong nhu da timg lam khdi xudng APEC nam 1989 Qua trao ddi, mdt sd hpc gia d Vien Nghien cim Ddng Nam A (ISEAS) cho rang sd dT 6-xtray-li-a dua sang kien APC vi thdi gian gan day 6-xtray-li-a bi My "bd qua" Nhat Ban va Trung Qudc deu day manh quan he vdi My (den vdd tu each Ngoai trudng, Hillary chua he tham 6-xtray-li-a; den thang 1/2010 mdi cd dy dinh di nhung ciing khdng thyc hien dugc ddng dat tai Hai-ti; Tdng thdng Obama hoan chuyen tham 6-xtray-li-a thang 3/2010 sang dy kien thang " Bai phat bieu "Da din liic xay dung mdt Cdng ddng chau A - Thai Binh Duang" ciia Thu tudng Ke-vin Riit tai cuoc hpp ciia Hpi Chau A, Xit-ni, 04/6/2008, http://w w.w.pm.gov.au/media/speech_0286.cfm 52 6/2010 Nghien ciiu Quoc te so 2(81) 6/2010) Han niia, APEC khdng the giiip 6-xtray-li-a tham dy sau rpng hon vao khu vyc vi Dien dan chi nang ve kinh te va cd ve trd nen suy yeu nhiing nam qua Mdt sd y kien ciing cho rang viec Thu tudng Rut keu gpi lap APC la nham mdt budc kiem che Trung Qudc Tuy khdng de cap tryc tiep, nhung cac phat bieu cua ngudi lanh dao 6-xtray-li-a deu td e ngai trudc sy Idn manh cua Trung Qudc va mudn ldi keo Trung Qudc tham gia vao khu vyc mdt each tich eye, cd trach nhiem hon va theo cac chuan myc qudc te Ddng thdi 6-xtray-li-a ciing mudn ldi keo sy tham gia ciia My vao khu vyc de can bang anh hudng cang Idn manh cua Trung Qudc , j Noi dung sang kien APC Vdi y tudng lap Cpng ddng chau A - Thai Binh Duong vao nam 2020, 6-xtray-li-a mudn hinh mdt the che mdi kha toan dien ca ve vien lan chu de thao luan Theo y tudng ban dau,.APC se cd sy tham gia ciia cac nudc ASEAN, cae nudc Idn nhu Nga, My, Nhat Ban, Trung Qudc, Han Qudc, An Dp va ca mdt sd nudc Nam My nhu Bra-xin, Pe-ru, Chi-le ASEAN se tham gia APC thdng qua ca che Troika cimg Tdng Thu ky ASEAN, tham chi cd thdi diem 6-xtray-li-a chi de cap den nudc chil chdt cua ASEAN nhu In-dd-ne-xi-a tham gia APC, Trong qua trinh van ddng, 6-xtray-li-a ludn khang dinh ASEAN van se giii vai trd trung tam khu vyc va se la trung tam eua Cdng ddng chau A - Thai Binh Duong, neu dugc lap.^ Cac the che khac dang tdn tai '" Bai phat bieu ciia Thii tudng O-xtray-li-a Ke-vin Riit tai Doi thoai Shangri-La lan thir 8, Xinh-ga-po, 29/5/2009; Bai phat bieu cua Bd trudng Ngoai giao 6-xtray-li-a Stphen Smith "O-xtray-li-a, ASEAN va chau A - Thai Binh Duong" tai Vien Nghien cuu Lowy, Xit-ni, 18/7/2008 6/2010 53 Chau A - Thdi Binh Duang khu vyc ciing se trd cac "try edt' ciia Cdng ddng chau A - Thai BinhDuang.^^ Muc dich cua APC la tao mdt dien dan sau rdng cho cac nha lanh dao khu vyc thao luan tren tinh than cdi md va thdng cam lan de giai quyet mdt each tdt nhat cac thach thirc ma khu vuc cd the se phai ddi mat, tir kinh te den chinh tri, an ninh ma khdng mdt qudc gia rieng le nao khu vuc cd the ty giai quyet dugc Ve ndi dung ciia sang kien, bi chi trich la qua sach vd de cap tdi md hinh Lien minh chau Au (EU) ma khdng tham khao cac qudc gia lang gieng, Thii tudng Ke-vin Rut sau dd da cd dieu chinh va dua mpt y kien it nang tinh ly thuyet hon tai cac dien dan khu vyc va qudc te Theo dd, APC se thao luan ca ve chinh tri, an ninh va kinh te cua khu vyc Td chirc cd co che van hanh tuong ty nhu APEC, ARF, ASEAN , song se khdng hoat ddng theo md hinh cua nhiing the che hay ciia EU ma chi mang y nghTa tu van don thuan, ft tap trung vao mat ndi dung cu the -' Cho den nay, cac nguyen tac hoat ddng, the che, myc tieu, tieu chi vien ciia APC chua rd rang, cu the Ban than 6-xtray-li-a ciing da cd nhirng dieu chinh nhat dinh ve sang kien sau mdi dgt van ddng So bp cd the hieu la 6-xtray-li-a mudn td chiic cuoc hpp d cap Lanh dao chinh phu cLia cac nudc khu vyc, cd the ben le cac Hdi nghi cap cao nhu APEC hoac cap cao ^dng A EAS Cac viing lanh thd nhu Dai Loan, Ma Cao se khdng dugc mdi tham gia 6-xtray-li-a chii y dat muc tieu hinh Cdng dong chau A Thai Binh Duong vao nam 2020, mdt khoang thdi gian tuong ddi xa so " "Van ban khai niem" ve APC 6-xtray-li-a dua tai Hdi nghj kenh 1.5 tai 6-xtrayli-a thang 12/2009 54 6/2010 Nghien cicu Quoc te so 2(81) vdi hien tai, nhung van du gan de tap trung tri tue tap the cua cudng quoc hang trung tich eye nhu 6-xtray-li-a r "w Van dong cho APC Nham thiic day y tudng vl APC, Thu tudng Ke-vin Riit da eir dac phai vien Udn-cdt, mdt nha ngoai giao cd nhieu kinh nghiem, timg dugc cyu Thil tudng Hawke bd nhiem lam Dae phai vien phy trach viec phat trien APEC, tdi thu cac nudc lien quan de thao luan ve de xuat Sau 12 thang thyc hien cae chuyen tham tdi My, Nga, Ca-na-da, Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, nudc ASEAN (trir Mi-an-ma), Niu Di-lan, An Dp, Me-xi-cd, Chi-le, Pe-ru, Pa-pua Niu Ghi-ne, gap gd khoang 300 nha lanh dao va quan chiic khu vyc de trinh bay cu the han ve sang kien APC, dac phai vien Udn-cdt da trinh len Thii tudng Kc-vin Rut mpt ban bao cao va Ihu tudng Riit da thdng bao nhiing ket luan chinh cua bao cao tai Cuoc ddi thoai Shangri-La 2009 d Xinh-ga-po nhu sau: Thic nhat, cd mdt sy nhat tri rdng rai la lam the nao de cau tnic khu vuc cd the phuc vu tdt nhat lgi ich ciia cac nudc khu vyc tuong lai; quan diem cua cac nudc ve APC cdn khac nhau; Thii hai, cd sy cdng nhan rdng rai rang nhirng cau tnic hien tai khdng mang lai mdt dien dan nhat cho tat ca cac nha lanh dao lien quan de thao luan tat ca nhimg thach thirc chinh tri, kinh te va an ninh se phai ddi mat tudng lai; Thic ba, khdng nudc nao mudn cd them cac hdi nghi va the che Cac nha lanh dao khd cd the sap xep thdi gian de cd them cuoc hpp cudng dp cac cuoc hpp da qua day dac.^^ Trong cac chuyen tham song phuang hay van ddng hanh lang tai cac dien dan/hdi nghi khu vyc, Thu tudng Ke-vin Rut ciing da nhieu lan '* Bai phat bieu ciia Thu tudng 6-xtray-li-a Ke-vin Rut tai Doi thoai Shangri-La Ian thii 8, Xinh-ga-po, 29/5/2009 6/2010 55 Chau A - Thdi Binh Duang keu gpi cac nudc khu vyc iing hd sang kien APC, gan day nhat la tai cac Hdi nghi cap cao ASEAN+ tai Thai Lan thang 10/2009 va Hpi nghi thupng dinh APEC d Xinh-ga-po thang 11/2009 Thu tudng Ke-vin Riit ciing da giii thu cho 21 ngudi diing dau chinh phu d 21 nudc ma dac phai vien Udn-cdt da den tham, chuyen mdt thdng diep rd rang rang ca che mdi APC cd the dugc tao hoac phat trien len tir bat cii the che hi?n cd nao khu vyc Thu tudng Ke-vin Riit ciing tran an cac nudc khu vyc bang each ly luan: Mpt cudng qudc hang trung tich eye nhu 6xtray-li-a dua y tudng mod cho cau tnic khu vyc se tdt hon so vdi mpt cudng qudc chinh nhu My, Trung Qudc hoac Nhat Ban vi se it lam cac nudc nhd nghi ngd hon ve ddng ea dua sang kien Trong cac bai phat bieu cua minh, Thu tudng ciing ludn danh gia cao vai trd cua ASEAN va cho rang cac nude khu vyc cd the dya vao kinh nghiem tich liiy va bai hpc cdng cua nhiing the che san cd khu vyc nhu ASEAN 6-xtray-li-a ciing da td chiic hdi nghi kenh 1.5 mang ten "Chau A Thai Binh Duong: Cdng ddng cho the ky 21" tir 3-5/12/2009 vdi sy tham dy eua cac quan chiic va hpc gia nham muc dich thu thap y kien danh gia, dac biet la cua gidi hpc gia de dan hoan thien y tudng ve APC Tai hdi nghi, 6-xtray-li-a da lan dau tien dua "van ban khai niem" ve APC bao tnim mpi van de ve kinh te, xa hdi, chinh tri va an ninh de cac dai bieu thao luan Tuy nhien, hdi nghi hau nhu chua dua dugc kien nghi cu the nao, trir viec Han Qudc de xuat lap Nhdm cac Nhan vat danh tieng (EPG) lam ndng edt de dua cac y tudng dinh hinh cau tnic cua Cdng ddng chau A - Thai Binh Duong Quan diem cua cac nifffc lien quan Sang kien cua Thii tudng Rut kha tham vpng Muc tieu xay dyng APC vao nam 2020 la khdng de dang neu cac yeu td ca ban ciia the che nhu nguyen tac hoat ddng, muc tieu, tieu chi vien khdng dugc 56 6/2010 Nghien citu Quoc te so 2(81) xay dyng ro rang Hon niia, vdi sy da dang ve phat trien kinh te, che chinh tri va nen tang van hda cua cac nudc chau A - Thai Binh Duong, viec xay dyng mdt the che kieu nhu EU d khu vyc chua thi thyc hien dupc mpt tuong lai gan Hau het cac nudc dugc 6-xtray-Ii-a van ddng deu dang dimg lai d miic dp ghi nhan va tham dd Tai 6-xtray-li-a, quan diem ve APC ciing rat khac Ngay ca chinh gidi ciia 6-xtray-Ii-a ciing cd nhieu y kien phan ddi sang kien (Lien minh ddi lap tai 6-xtray-li-a, cac cyu Thu tudng Paul Keating va Bob Hawke - ngudi cd sang kien lap APEC) Cyu Ngoai trudng Paul Keating md ta APC la "mdt nhiem vu rat khd khan va khdng nhat thiet la mdt viec thich hgp".^' Khi phdng van Dac phai vien Udn-cdt, Tap doan Phat 6-xtray-li-a md ta cdng viec mdi cua dng Udn-cdt la nhiem vu "khdng kha thi" dua cac cudng qudc ddi dau nhu My, Nhat Ban, An Dp vao ciing mdt the che.^^ Nudc lang gieng ciia 6-xtray-li-a, Niu Di-lan ciing td khdng man ma vdi sang kien nay, cho rang viec dua APC la nhay cam vdi EAS vi cd the dung cham den cac nudc da dua y tudng lap Dien dan Hon nira, Niu Di-lan cho rang cdng ddng cac nudc Nam Thai Binh Duong deu la nhung qudc dao nhd, dan sd it, tiem lye kinh te khdng manh va cd the ndi la thu ddng, vi vay se khdng cd sy ddng nhat neu APC hinh Niu Di-lan ciing lo ngai APC cd the it nhieu lam vai trd dau tau ddi vdi cac qudc dao tai khu vyc Nam Thai Binh Duong cua Niu Di-lan bi anh hudng '•, ' -; • :j ;• Kr Tai cac nudc Idn, phan iing ciing rat khac My td khdng man ma vdi APC ma dang quan tam tham gia EAS Trung Qudc, cuoc " "Xung quanh y tudng Cdng ddng chau A - Thai Binh Duong", Tin Tham khda ddc bi?t TTXVN, 20/6/2008 6/2010 57 Chau A - Thdi Binh Duang gap Dac phai vien Udn-cdt thang 11/2008, cho rang hien cac nudc khu vyc cd che dp chinh tri va trinh dp phat trien kinh te khdng ddng dIu va cdn nhiiu each biet Hon niia, khu vyc dang cd nhieu CO chl vdi ndi dung hpp tac phong phii, nen trudc tien can tap trung lam tdt hgp tac cac ca chl da cd rdi mdi phat trien pham vi Idn hon Cac nudc khac nhu Nhat Ban, Han Qudc cho den van td than trpng An Dp td quan tam va mudn My cd vai trd xay dyng hon d khu vuc Ngay cac nudc ASEAN, ciing khd cd the dat dugc ddng thuan vl vin dl Tdng Thu ky ASEAN Surin Pisuwan img hd sang kiln APC, hoan nghenh tam nhin cua Thu tudng Riit ve chau A va mudn ASEAN tham gia vao ca che mdi Trong dd, nguyen Tdng thu ky ASEAN Rod Severino, Giam ddc Trung tam nghien ciiu ASEAN cua Vien Nghien ciiu Ddng Nam A, bai viet gan day da neu rd quan diem khdng can thiet cd mdt cdng ddng chau A - Thai Binh Duong nhu Thu tudng 6-xtray-li-a de nghi ma nen tap trung vao cimg cd cac the che va tien trinh hien cd, cho rang sang kien cira 6-xtray-Ii-a cd the pha cau tnic dang tdn tai d khu vyc Hon niia, cac cau tnic hien hanh la ASEAN, ASEAN+, ARF, EAS, APEC, dd dIu cd 6-xtray-li-a va Niu Di-lan tham gia Trong mdt sd nude nhu Phi-lip-pin, Thai Lan, Lao, Campu-chia td thai dp tich eye thi Ma-lai-xi-a, Xinh-ga-po, In-dd-ne-xi-a khdng thuan Ma-lai-xi-a cho rang chi can My va Nga tham gia EAS la dil Xinh-ga-po lo ngai ASEAN se bi mat vai trd trung tam d khu vyc Indd-ne-xi-a cho rang y tudng APC qua rdng Idn nen khd cd co hdi cdng, nhan manh "nen giai quyet cac van de theo timg khu vyc; 6-xtrayIi-a se kiem soat sudn phia Nam, ASEAN se giai quyet cac van de d Ddng Nam A, dieu dd thyc te va mang tinh khu vuc hon".^^ Tuy nhien ' ' Phat bilu cua Bd trudng Qudc phdng In-dd-ne-xi-a tai Ddi thoai Shangri-La lin thir tai Xinh-ga-pp, 29/5/2009 58 6/2010 Nghien citu Quoc te so 2(81) In-dd-ne-xi-a cung nhan thay lgi ich cua APC vdi sang kien de cao vai trd nudc Idn d khu vyc se dua dat nudc len ngang tam vdi An Dp, Nhat Ban va Han Qudc ., • Mdt sd y kien khac cho rang each tiep can ciia Thii tudng Rut la khdng dan chii, mang tinh "chpn lya" de nghi nhdm G8 ndng edt cho chau A - Thai Binh Duong gdm My, Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, An Dp, Nga, In-dd-ne-xi-a, 6-xtray-li-a Mdt sd lo ngai APC cd the lam mat di vai trd trung tam cua ASEAN khu vyc ASEAN da la mpt td chiic gan ket, trung lap va dugc tat ca cac ben chap nhan, cd the tiep tuc la Chii tich trung lap Day la mpt thyc te ma 6-xtray-li-a nen tdn trpng thay vi tim each chia re hoac lam suy giam vai trd ciia ASEAN Cac nudc Nam My nhu Chi-le, Pe-ru va Me-hi-cd cd quan tam khac ve van de an ninh, nhien Chi-le va Pe-ru td y quan tam tham gia Trien vong y tirong ciia APC Cho den nay, cac nd lye van ddng ciia 6-xtray-li-a cho APC td khdng dat ket qua nhu mong mudn Phan Idn cac nudc lien quan den sang kien td khdng man ma hoac td ve than trpng dimg lai d mire dp ghi nhan de nghien ciiu De xuat lap APC ciia Thu tudng Ke-vin Riit cho thay xtray-li-a thyc sy coi trpng tang cudng quan he hgp tac vdi cac nudc khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong, ddng thdi ciing the hien tham vpng cua nudc mudn ddng mdt vai trd Idn hon khu vuc Tuy nhien, sang kien APC cua Thu tudng 6-xtray-li-a it cd tinh kha thi thdi gian tdi v i m p t s d l y d o ^ ^ ;, ,,•.^^^^ , r Thit nhat, y tudng dupe dua qua vdi vang, chua cd sy chuan bj ky ve npi dung va thdi diem de xuat, chua tham khao cac nudc 6/2010 59 Chau A - Thdi Binh Duang khu vyc, tham chi cdn cd y kien cho rang Thu tudng Ke-vin Riit da "bdt phat" dua sang kien i s.''5: = ? v ^j •• r;'- Thic hai, tai chau A - Thai Binh Duong, hien tdn tai nhieu td chiic khu vyc nhu ASEAN, ASEAN+3, ARF, APEC, EAS dang hoat ddng hieu qua va cd nhiing ddng gdp nhat dinh cho sy phat trien cua khu vyc trCn cac ITnh vyc an ninh - chinh tri va kinh te, viec xu ly mdi quan he giua APC va cac td chiic se gap nhieu khd khan Hon niia, ban than cac qudc gia khu vyc khd tir bd nhiing vai trd, lgi ich hien cd de tham gia mot ca cau hoan toan mdi, chua xac dinh rd ve md hinh, ca che hoat ddng va hieu qua : ; i s , Thit ba, quan he giiia 6-xtray-li-a va mot sd nudc cd vai trd Idn khu vyc va cd the lien quan den viec hien thyc hda sang kien APC nhu Trung Qudc, Nhat, An Dp, In-dd-ne-xi-a dugc cai thien nhung van cdn tdn tai nhiing bat ddng, nghi ky, khien cac nudc trudc mat chua thyc sy man ma vdi y tudng 6-xtray-li-a dua Thic tu, chau A - Thai Binh Duong la khu vyc da dang ve dia ly, che chinh tri va trinh dp phat trien kinh te Viec bao gdm cac nudc cd nhieu khac biet vao mdt the che Idn, bao triim se gap rat nhieu khd khan, neu khdng ndi la qua tham vpng Ngay ca viec xac dinh nudc nao se dugc xep vao nhdm "cac nudc chau A - Thai Binh Duong" de xay dyng tieu chi ve vien cua APC ciing se gap nhieu van de, chua ke den viec xac dinh chuang trinh nghi sy cho mdi lan hdi nghi (neu 6-xtray-li-a tham gia thi phai tinh den sy tham gia cua cac qudc dao Thai Binh Duong, tuong ty ddi vdi sy tham gia cua Bra-xin va cac nudc My La tinh An Dp va cac nudc nhu I-ran, I-rac va A-rap Xe-iit) r; t Ban than 6-xtray-li-a gan day da nhan thiic dugc khd khan viec theo dudi sang kien Qua tham khao cac nudc, dng Udn-cdt da nhan dugc thdng diep rd rang la khd cd the lap them mdt ca chl khu vuc 60 6/2010 Nghien citu Quoc te so 2(81) mdi, ma nen xay dyng tren co sd nhirng khudn khd hien cd vi lanh dao cac nudc khu vyc cung qua ban rdn vdi danh sach cac cuoc hpp vdn da day dac d khu vuc Mdt sd hpc gia de xuat APC khdng nhat thiet phai la mdt td chiic mdi hoan toan, ma cd the dugc phat trien len tir nhirng the che da tdn tai trudc day nhu APEC, EAS hay ARF hoac sy ket hop ciia ca cac the che nay, vi neu can cii vao ndi dung sang kien 6-xtray-li-a so bd dua thi APC se bao gdm ehiie nang cua ARF (thao luan cac van de an ninh), APEC (thao luan cac van de kinh te) va EAS (thao luan cac van de mdi ndi len nhu thay ddi hau, nang lugng) Thdi gian tir den nam 2020 cdn dai, 6-xtray-li-a hoac se tiep tuc van ddng cac nudc iing hd APC, tren co sd ed mdt sd dieu chinh nhat dinh ve ndi dung sang kien, cac nguyen tac hoat ddng ciing nhu muc tieu, tieu chi vien ciia APC Ciing cd the, 6-xtray-li-a phai thay ddi each tiep can ve sang kien va xac dinh khdng the lap them mdt co che mdi ma phat trien APC tir cac co che hien cd, dd EAS cd ve phii hgp hon ca vi mdt sd ly do: Thic nhat, phat trien EAS - mdt the che cd sy tham gia ciia ASEAN, Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, An Dp, 6-xtray-li-a va Niu Di-lan hoan toan phii hgp vdi try edt thir ba chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia Chinh phii Cdng dang ciia Thii tudng Ke-vin Riit la tang cudng quan he vdi cae nudc chau A Thic hai, hien chi can My va Nga tham gia EAS la cac phan CO ban ciia APC da hoan tat Kha nang rat kha thi vi hien cac nudc khu vyc cd ve dang quan tam hon (so vdi sang kien APC ciia 6-xtray-li-a) sang kien lap Cdng ddng Ddng A ciia Nhat Ban va xu hudng md rdng EAS vdi sy tham gia cua My va Nga Hon nira, nhirng ddng thai gin day ciia My, dd cd viec My quan tam tham gia Hiep 6/2010 61 Chau A - Thdi Binh Duang dinh Hiiu nghi va Hpp tac (TAC) va cd cuoc gap lich sir dau tien vdd 10 nha lanh dao cac nudc ASEAN ben le Hdi nghi Cap cao APEC tai Xinhga-po thang 11/2009 la cac tin hieu khdi dau tich eye theo hudng Viec My cd the sdm xin gia nhap EAS se md dudng cho Nga tham gia dien dan Thic ba, viec md rdng EAS cd kha nang se nhan dugc sy ung hp cua Trung Qudc, vdn khdng mudn thay cd mdt td chiic mdi lam thay ddi tam anh hudng cua Trung Qudc tai chau A - Thai Binh Duong hay ciia chinh phii mdi d Nhat Ban - vdn rat coi trpng vai trd cua EAS va khdng " mudn 6-xtray-li-a phat len ngpn cd Theo gidi hpc gia 6-xtray-li-a, hien Niu Di-lan, Han Qudc, In-dd-ne-xi-a deu img hd y tudng md rdng EAS APC./ DANH MUC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Andrej Tusicisny, "Security Communities and Their Values: Taking Masses Seriously ", International Political Science Review, Vol 28, No 4, 2007, p 425-449 Deutsch, Karl W et al, Political Community and the North Atlantic Area: International Organization in the Light of Historical Experience Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1957 James W Skillen, "What Constitutes a Political Community?", September-October 1994, http://www.cpjustice.org/node/913 Amitav Acharya, Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia: ASEAN and the Problem of Regional Order, London and New York, Routledge, 2001 Emanuel Adler and Michael Bamett, "Security Communities" (paperback), (Cambridge Studies in International Relations), Cambridge University Press, 1998 ; , •; , ,.,fj , n 62 6/2010 Nghien citu Quoc te so 2(81) Kevin Rudd, "It's Time to Build an Asia Pacific Community", June, 2008, Address to the Asia Society AustralAsia Centre, Sydney, 2008 Kevin Rudd, "Building on ASEAN's Success: Towards an AsiaPacific Community", Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), Singapore, 2008 Kevin Rudd, "Keynote Address at Shangri-La Dialogue", 29 May 2009 The Hon Stephen Smith MP, "Australia, ASEAN and Asia-Pacific", 18 July, 2008, Lowy Institute, Sydney, 2008 10 Richard Woolcott, "Towards an Asia-Pacific Community", 12 October, 2009 11 Matthew Franklin, "Kevin Rudd to Drive Asian Union", The Australian, June, 2008 12 Roberto Jelash, "Kevin Rudd Pushing far Asian Pacific Union", (www.infonews.co.nz, 12 August, 2008) 13 Peter Drysdale, "Rudd in Singapore on the Asia Pacific Community Idea", ANU, (www.eastasiaf3rum.org, 31 May, 2009) 14 Pumendra Jain, "Sinophile Rudd Loses Asian Friends", (www.atimes.com, 11 January, 2008) 15 Chris Perver, "Australia Proposes Asia Pacific EU-Style Bloc", (www.prophecynews.co.uk, June, 2008) Xd Australian PM Proposes New Asia-Pacific Body for Economic Cooperation, The AP, Melbourne, May, 2008 Security, 17 China Expresses Support for Australia PM's Proposal of AsiaPacific Community The AP, Beijing, May, 2008 6/2010 63 Chau A - Thdi Binh 18 Pavin ASEAN'\ Chaehavalpongpun, "Australia's Bangkok Post, Januaxy, 2009 APC o Duang Meddling with : "^i • • 19 Tim Colebath, "Rudd's Grand Vision for Asia- Pacific"/ Canberra, June 2008 64 , ' • •• •; '• >WM 6/2010
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