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JC r MOT SO TAC DONG XA HOI CUA BIEN DOI KHI HAU •'.\H NGUYfiN THI HOA* I BIEN DOI KHI HAU TOAN CAU Khai niem bien doi hau Trong nhiing nam gan day, chiing ta cang nhan thiie dugc miic tac ddng nghiem trgng cila bien ddi hau den san xuat, ddi sdng va mdi trudng tren pham vi toan the gidi Va vay, cdng ddng qudc te va cac qudc gia dang cd nhieu sang kien nham ddi phd vdi nhung tac ddng cd the xay cua hien tugng bien ddi hau Vay bien ddi hau la gi? Cdng udc khung ciia Lien hgp qudc (LHQ) ve bien ddi hau da dinh nghia nhu sau: "Bien ddi hau la nhiing bien ddi mdi trudng vat ly hoac smh hgc gay nhijng anh hudng cd hai dang ke den phan, kha nang phuc hdi hoac sinh san ciia cac he sinh thai tu nhien va dugc quan ly hoac den hoat ddng cua cac he thdng kinh te - xa hdi hoac den sue khde va phtic Igi ciia ngudi."' Cdn theo Td chiic lien chinh phu ve hau (IPCC) thi bien ddi hau (BDKH) la nhung thay ddi theo thdi gian ciia hau, dd bao gdm ca nhiing bien ddi tu nhien va nhijTig bien ddi cac hoat ddng ciia ngudi gay ra.^ Cac bieu hien cua bien doi hau Theo Tong luan "Tac ddng cua bien ddi hau toan cau va sir dang cao nudc bien" ciia Trung tam Thdng tin Khoa hgc va Cdng nghe Qudc gia (2008)^ da xac dinh va dua cac bieu hien ciia bien ddi hau gdm: - Su ndng len ciia quyen va trai dat ndi chung; - Su thay ddi phan va chat lugng quyen cd hai cho mdi trudng sdng ciia ngudi va cac sinh vat tren trai dat; - Su dang cao muc nudc bien bang tan, dan tdi sir ngap ling d cac vung dat thap, cac dao nhd tren bien; - Su di chuyen ciia cac ddi hau tdn tai hang nghin nam tren cac vung khac ciia ES trai dat dan tdi nguy co de doa sir sdng cua cac loai sinh vat, cac he sinh thai va hoat ddng cua ngudi; - Su thay ddi cudng hoat ddng ciia qua trinh hoan luu quyen, chu trinh tuan hoan nudc tu nhien va cac chu trinh sinh dia hoa khac; - Sir thay ddi nang suat sinh hgc ciia cac he sinh thai, chat lugng va phan ciia thuy quyen, sinh quyen, cac dia quyen Sy thay doi nhiet ben mat trai dat Bieu dd nhiet trung binh tren \k mat Trai dSt da tang len vdng 140 nam qua (Anh: wvyw.combatclimatechange.ieJ Nguyen nhan cua bien doi hau Khi hau trai dat dugc giu dn dinh nhd su can bang va dn dinh can can buc xa mat trdi Sir dn dinh dd cd dugc la nhd sir dn dinh cac phdn quan trgng quyln, dac biet la cac loai cd kha nang biic xa va phan * Nguyen Thj Hoa, CN, Vifn Nghien cuu Moi truong va Phat trien ben vung Cong uoc khung ciia LHQ \l BDKH T6 chue lien chinh phii ve hau (IPCC) Tong luan: "Tac dong ciia bien d6i hau toan cau va su dan eao nuae bien" - Trung tam Th6ng tin Khoa hoc va Cong nghe Qu6c Gia, 2008 Nguy&n Thi Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cua bien doi hau xa biic xa mat trdi cd cac budc sdng khac Thanh phan quan trgng quyin cd kha nang dd la nha kinh Dd la cac loai sudt ddi vdi cac biic xa sdng ngSn nhung cd kha nang phan xa va ngan can biic xa sdng dai Hau het cac tdn tai tu nhien va nhd cd chiing ma hau trai dat am ap vdi mudn loai sinh sdng hien Tuy nhien, su phat trien ciia khoa hgc ky thuat va phat trien kinh te - xa hdi cua eon ngudi da bd sung them vao quyen mot khdi lugng Idn cac loai nha kinh dd va nhiing loai nha kinh khac hoan toan ngudi tao nhu CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs va SFg Trong dd, CO2 la loai nha kinh quan trgng nhat cac hoat ddng ciia ngudi tao Tir nam 1970 den nam 2004, phat thai hang nam ciia loai tang khoang 80% Va day la mot sd nhung nguyen nhan khien trai dit ndng din len Hau het su gia tang nhiet trung binh tren toan chx quan sat dugc tir giiia the ky 20 cd the tang ndng nha kinh Dieu dan den mot loat cac hien tugng cue doan nhu hien tugng bang tan, gia tang muc nudc bien, bao nhiet ddi tang, Ngoai ra, nhiing hanh ddng khai thac nang lugng khdng theo quy hoach ciia ngudi dang gdp phan lam pha huy he sinh thai tu nhien dan den hien tugng mat can bang sinh thai, ciing la mot nguyen nhan gay bien ddi hau Nhu vay, ta cd the khai quat nguyen nhan chinh lam bien ddi hau trai dat la sir gia tang cac hoat ddng tao cac chat thai nha kinh, cac boat ddng khai thac qua miic cac be hdp thu nha kinh nhu sinh khdi, rimg, cac he sinh thai bien, ven bd va tren dat lien II M Q T SO TAC DONG XA HOI CUA BlfiN DOI KHI HAU Tac ddng ciia bien ddi hau den xa hdi dien d nhieu mat, nhieu chieu canh ciia xa hdi Trong khudn khd bai viet nay, chiing tdi chi dg cap tdi nhiing tac ddng ciia bien doi hau den cac van de ve quyen ngudi, cdng bang xa hdi, ngheo ddi, sue khde va phat trien ngudi NQhien CLTU Phat then ben viJmQ so (26) - ThanQ 3/2010 Quyen nguoi Tu trudc den nay, nhiing quan tam v8 bien ddi Idii hau toan cau thudng qua tap trung vao nhiing van de kinh te, ky thuat hon la tac ddng va hau qua ciia nd ddi vdi ngudi Bien ddi hau toan cau can phai dugc thao luan va nghien cuu tir gdc quy^n ngudi thi mdi cd y nghia Dd chinh la binh dien nhan van ban ve van de bien ddi hau toan cau Dieu ciia Tuyen ngdn qudc te ve Nhan quyen khang dinh: "Mdi ngudi deu cd quy§n sdng, quyen tu va an ninh than thS"." Th6 nhung, theo sd lieu ciia Td chiic dien dan Nhan dao toan cau, thi trung binh mdi nam cd tdi 300.000 ngudi thiet mang va 300 trieu ngudi khac bi anh hudng bien ddi hau Tdi nam 2030, mdi nam cd khoang 500.000 ngudi chet nang ndng, lii lut, bao va chay rimg Dieu tac ddng nghiem trgng den quyen sdng ciia ngudi tren trai dat Ngoai ra, bien ddi hau cdn lam cho ngudi khdng the tu lam nhirng gi minh mudn van de d nhiem da trd van nan Them nira, siic khde ngudi ciing bi anh hudng nghiem trgng bdi nhiing tac ddng ciia bien ddi hau gay ra, Day chinh la nhung thach thiic Idn ddi vdi ngudi ma khdng the giai quyet mot thdi gian ngan Nd ddi hdi phai dugc nhin nhan nghiem tiic va cd su lien ket chat che giiia cac qudc gia tren toan the gidi de giai quyit Cong bang xa hoi Hien tugng bien ddi hau dang khien chiing ta phai nhin nhan ve sir cdng bang xa hdi va mdi tuong quan phu thuoc giiia ngudi vdi nhau, dieu mang mot y nghia sau xa Cdng bang xa hdi la muc tieu cot Idi ciia chinh sach xa hdi, nham hudng tdi dn dinh xa hdi, khdng ngimg nang cao chat lugng ddi sdng nhan dan va sir phat trien ben vung Thuc hien cdng bang xa hdi ddi hdi phai nhan Tuyen ngon Nhan quyen, My NguySn Thi Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cua bien doi hau thiic va giai quyet diing dan, hai hda cac mdi quan he Igi ich Cdng bang xa hdi d day de cap den chieu canh can quan tam: Thu nhdt, quan diem phat trien ben viing, nguyen tac cdng bang giiia cac the he ddng vai trd trgng tam Chiing ta da biet, phat triln ben vung la nham dap ling nhiing nhu ciu ciia cac the he hien tai ma khdng lam tdn hai den kha nang cua cac the he tuong lai The nhung, each thiic tieu thu nang lugng ciia chiing ta tir trudc den dang gay nhirng mdn ng sinh thai rat Idn ma cac the he tuong lai se phai ganh chiu Tat nhien, phat trien ben vung khdng cd nghia la mdi the he se bao toan tuyet ddi, khdng tac ddng gi len mdi trudng tu nhien Dieu can giii gin la nhiing co hdi cho cac the he tuong lai dugc thuc su tu do, chgn lira va theo dudi cudc sdng nhu minh mong mudn Thic hai, van dh cdng bang hien tai ciing dugc dat la mot van de cap thiet can quan tam: ngudi ngheo phai chiu hau qua cua bien ddi hau nang ne hon, phu nii thudng ganh hoa nang hon so vdi nam gidi bi thien tai (do kha nang di chuyen; kien thiic ban che khdng dugc giao due day du; quyen phap ly ddi vdi dat dai, tai san han che nen khdng tiep can dugc tdi nhirng khoan tin dung khac phuc hau qua thien tai, ) Mot thuc te cho thay, dai bd phan lugng thai nha kinh tdn tai bau quyen la cac nudc giau va ngudi dan ciia hg phat thai Cdn cac nudc ngheo va ngudi dan cua hg lai phai tra gia dat nhat cho bien ddi hau Neu de nhirng ngudi ngheo phai chiu ganh nang tu van de bien ddi hau ma hg khdng gay ra, thi dd chinh la sir bat binh dang va bat cdng xa hdi phat trien Day cGng la khia canh dao due xa hdi, vi mot phan nen tang dao due ciia bat ky xa hdi nao ciing can dugc danh gia dua tren each xa hdi dd ddi xu vdi nhiJng vien de bi tdn thuong nhat ciia minh hdi Nhung hanh ddng ciia chiing ta hien thdng qua bien ddi khf hau cd the tac ddng tdi nhirng ngudi ngheo sdng each rat xa chiing ta ve khoang each dia ly, cd the tac ddng tdi cac the he tuong lai, khdng chi ban than chau chiing ta ma cdn la chau cua nhirng ngudi dan tren toan the gidi Nhu vay, viec xem nhe nhiing trach nhiem xuat phat tu mdi tuong quan phu thuoc ciia ngudi vdi ve mat sinh thai va tir dd gay bien ddi hau se ddng nghia vdi sir phii nhan nhiing gia tri dao diic ciia ngudi Dieu ddi hdi chiing ta can cung chia se de ngan chan mot cudc khung hoang nhan dao toan cau Day la bai toan khd ve dao due xa hdi ma chi dugc giai dap bang cdng ly, cdng bang, trach nhiem va nghia vu cua mgi qudc gia, moi vien xa hdi Ngheo doi Xet den cung, cac tac ddng ciia bien ddi hau nhu da ndi d tren, la mot nhiing nguyen nhan chinh gay ddi ngheo, dau khd cho ngudi va lam giam ca hdi phat trien cua hg Dac biet la ddi vdi ngudi ngheo d nhijng nudc dang phat trien va cham phat trien Theo cac nha nghien ciin ciia Dai hgc Purdue (An Do) cac van de hau nhu nang ndng, han han, va mua Idn anh hudng den 16 nudc dang phat trien Cdng nhan d thi cd the phai chiu dung nhieu nhit tir biln ddi hau chi phi cho luong thuc tang cao day hg vao canh ngheo ddi Cac nghien ciiu tren the gidi chi rang hm ndng toan cSu cd the lam tang tan sd xuat hien va cudng ciia cac dot nang ndng, lu lut va han ban d nhieu khu vuc Se rat quan trgng n6u bill dugc cac nhdm kinh te xa hdi nao hay quoc gia nao xay su thay ddi ty le ngheo nhim dua cac quyet dinh chinh sach diing dan BiSn ddi hau cdn dang dat nhiing cau hdi hoc biia ve van de dao dtic, ve mdi lien he giiia ngudi vdi ngudi xa Nhung sd lieu sau day cho thiy tac ddng ciia ban ban tai Etiopia len ngudi ngheo nhu the nao Ty le ngheo ddi quan sat thiy tren thuc tg la 47,3% ty le ngheo ddi theo du doan khdng bi ban ban la 33, 1% va ty le ngheo ddi theo du doan khdng bi chan ddng gi ca chi la 29,4% Ta thSy cd su m NQhien ciru Phat then ben vurnQ so (26) - Thano 3/2010 Nguy§n Thj Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cCia bien doi hau chenh lech xk Idn, tdi 17,9%) dan sd bi diy tdi tinh trang ngheo ddi tac ddng ciia thien tai (Dercon, 2004) Ngudi ngheo tren th8 gidi dang phai ddi mat vdi su gia tang lien tuc cua nhiing nguy co va tdn thuong gin lien vdi hau: ddi ngheo va phat trien ngudi thip; chenh lech phat triln ngudi; thieu ca sd tSng bao ve hau; tiep can ban che den bao hilm.^ Khi chan ddng hau giang xudng se de dga ve siic khde va dinh duong, mit tai san, tien ciia tiet kiem, hu hai nha cua vat dung, hoac mua mang bi pha hoai Neu ngudi giau cd the ddi phd bang bao hiem, ban tai san hoac nit tien tiet kiem thi ngudi ngheo budc phai that chat tieu diing, cat giam dinh dudng, bat cai phai bd hgc hay phai ban di chinh nhiing tu lieu san xuat ma dua vao dd hg mdi phuc hdi dugc Dieu dan den tinh trang da ngheo lai cang ngheo ban Day chinh la cai vdng luan quan khien ngudi ngheo khd cd the thoat dugc BANG Han banffMalauy-nguoingheo doi ;, Dom vi tinh: % tren tong so ngudi Hanh vi doi vol han han nam 1999 Dieu chinh bCra an - An rau thay thjt - An de de duge lau hon - Bot bira - An nhieu thuc khac nhu san, ngo Giam chi tieu - Giam mua ciii dot, sap - Giam mua phan bon Kiem tien mua gao - Rut dan tien tiet kiem - Vay mugn - Kiem viec vat lam them - Ban gia siic gia cam - Ban quan ao, vat dung nha - Dua tre di kiem tien Tinh Blantyre Vung nong thon Zomba 73 47 46 93 91 91 41 89 63 38 83 33 25 36 19 17 59 15 11 10 Nguon: Devereux 1999 NQhien ciru Phat then ben vu:nQ so (26) - ThanQ 3/2010 Nhu vay ta thay, cudc chien chdng ddi ngheo va cudc chien chdng anh hudng ciia bien ddi hau cd mdi quan he qua lai mat thiet vdi Sue khoe Theo Du bao ciia IPCC, bien ddi hau se tac ddng tdi siic khde ngudi thdng qua cac he thong phiic tap bao gdm thay ddi nhiet do, nguy CO thien tai va cac hien tugng hau cue doan, tiep can dinh dudng, chat lugng khdng va nhiSu phuong dien khac Hien nhiing tac ddng nhd ve siic khde dugc du bao kha chac chan la se gia tang manh me d tat ca cac nudc va khu vuc, ma tac ddng d cac nudc thu nhap thap la tdi te nhdt Cdn theo "Du bao phat triln ngudi", bien ddi hau se tac ddng tdi siic khde ngudi theo nhilu each khac Nhung ngudi dugc trang bi kem nhat d6 ddi phd vdi nguy CO sue khde dang bien ddi, chii yeu la ngudi ngheo d cac nudc ngheo, se phai chiu hau qua siic khde di xudng Siic khde kem la mot nhirng nhan td kim ham tilm nang phat trien ngudi ciia cac hg ngheo Bien ddi hau se lam tram trgng them vSn dk Theo IPCC (2006), thiet hai thien tai vi bien ddi hau thap ky qua lam trieu ngudi chet, 200 trieu ngudi bi anh hudng Thiet hai thien tai trung binh mdi nam len tdi 40 ty USD Bien ddi hau da va dang lam xudt hien nhieu benh mdi la va da "toan chu hda" nhieu loai benh trudc day chi xay nhung khu vuc dia ly nhd (sdt ret, sot virut, sdt xuat huyet, HIV, ta, ciim, ) Th8 gidi da ghi nhan 30 can benh mdi xuat hien thap ky qua, sir bung nd benh mdi chua timg thay ke tir cudc each mang cdng nghiep dua ngudi sdng tap trung vao cac dd thi (cac benh d nhiem, tu ky, tram cam, ) Bao cao ciia Lien hgp qudc ve trien vgng mdi trudng toan cau 2007 da chi rd mdi quan he giiia bien ddi hau va sue khde ngudi the hien so dd nhu sau: UNDP: Bao cao Phat trien ngiroi 2007/2008 m NguySn Thi Hoa - Met so tac dong xa hoi cOa bien doi hau HINH Moi quan he giira BDKH va sue khoe nguoi BDKH ddi t Suy giam tang 03 Sa mac hoa va suy thoai dai San xuat n6ng nghiep sinh thai Di ddi cho d tang dan so Chiu tac aSng cua tia tii ngoai Giam ctiLfc nang sinh thai Bien ddi luong mua Chat luong v^ so iugng nudc Giam tai nguyen nirdc ngot MatDDSHvacanbang sinh thai Theo WTO, trai dat ndng len cd the se lam ban 150.000 ngudi chet va trieu ngudi bi mac cac chung benh khac HINH Thiet hai ve nguoi vi thien tai Idn giai doan 1985-1999 Lulut49% Oong dat, nui ^ 30% Cac thien tai khac 6% Bao 15% Phat trien nguo'i Ddi vdi 22 nudc vdi tong dan sd 509 trieu ngudi nam nhdm phat trien ngudi thap theo chi sd phat trien ngudi (HDI), ca nhiing gia tang rat nhd ve nii ro hau ciing cd the dan tdi sir tdn thuong rat Idn Bang gia tri sau day cho chiing ta thay rd dieu dd Chang ban, huyen Turkana la mot so nhung huyen phai hd trg luang thuc khan cdp cila Kenia; giai doan 11/2005- 10/2006, huyen cd gia tri chi sd phat trien ngudi nam 2005 trung binh la 0,172 Trong dd gia tri chi sd phat triSn ngudi nam 2005 ciia toan qudc la 0,532 va cua Huyen Nairobi la 0,773 Nhu vay la cd su chenh lech rat Idn ve gia tri chi sd phat trien ngudi giiia huyen bi han ban va huyen khdng bi han ban tren cung mot dat nudc Kenia BANG Tuong quan giua nan doi han han va phat trien nguoi 6" Kenia Cac huyf n cua Kenia Gia trj Chi so phat trien nguoi 2005 Cdc huy^njjhdi ho trgt luffng thuc khan cap (11/2005-10/2006)' Garissa 0,267 Isiolo 0,580 Mandera 0,310 Masrabit Mwingi 0,411 Samburu 0,347 Turkana Wajir 0,172 0,501 0,256 Ngudn: Moi truong va phat trien ben viJng, NXB Giao due, 2009 Cdc huyfn khac Mombassa Nairobi He sinh thai nudi dudng cudc sdng cung cdp cho loai ngudi thiic an, khdng va nudc ciing dang bi anh hudng nghiem trgng Bien ddi hau lam tang mot sd nguy co doi vdi ngudi benh, thay ddi dac tinh nhip sinh hgc cua ngudi Nhu vay, biln ddi hau gay nen nhiSng tac ddng tieu CKC nghiem trgng den siic khde ngi''^i tren the gidi Trung binh toan qu6e ciia Kenia Bao cao Phat triln ngudi 2007/2008 da xac dinh ca chS tac ddng chinh, ma qua dd, biln ddi hau cd the chan dung va day lui qua trinh phat triln ngudi nhu sau: - San xuat ndng nghiep va an ninh luong thuc; m NQhien ciru Phat then ben vCrnQ so (26) - ThanQ 3/2010 0,769 0,773 0,532 Nguon: UNFDP 2006a; USAID FEWS NET 2007 Nguyin Thj Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cua bien doi hau - Khiing hoang nudc va tinh trang bit an ninh ve nudc; - Nudc bien dang dang va nguy ca thien tai; • ' , - Cac he sinh thai va da dang sinh hgc; - Sue khde ngudi Cac CO che cd mdi quan he qua lai vdi cac qua trinh van hanh kinli te, xa hdi va sinh thai tao ca hdi cho phat trien ngudi Trai ngugc vdi cac chan ddng kinh te chi gay anh hudng tdi tang trudng hay lam phat, nhieu tac ddng ve mat phat trien ngudi (nhu mat di ca hdi ve y te va giao due, tiem nang san xuat bi suy giam, mat di nhiing he sinh thai, ) cd y nghia sdng cdn vi nd lien quan true tiep tdi cudc sdng ngudi Su phat trien ngudi la su md rdng co hdi phat trien va tu lira chgn cac ca hdi phat trien Riii ro lien quan tdi hau budc ngudi phai danh ddi cac nhu cau de tdn tai, vi nhu thay vi an thit, ngudi ta phai an rau, thay vi dugc di hgc thi phai di lam de cd thu nhap trang trai cho cudc sdng, Dieu dd dan tdi viec ban che ca ban sir tu va xdi mdn sir lua chgn cac co hdi phat trien Ve mat dinh dudng: chan ddng hau nhu ban ban, lii lut cd the gay sut giam ghe gdm tinh trang dinh duong luong thuc khan hiem, gia ca leo thang, va co hdi viec lam thu hep (Chang han, dgt ban ban nam 2005 d Kenia da lam cho 3,3 trieu ngudi d 26 quan huyen cd nguy ca chet ddi O huyen Kajiado, 30% tre em thieu can so vdi 6% nhirng nam mua thuan gid hda).^ Ve giao due: ddi vdi nhiing hd ngheo nhat, ngudn cung lao ddng gia tang vi phai dua tre em tir Idp hgc ngoai thi trudng lao ddng (d Niracagoa sau bao Mitch, sd tre em cac hd bi tac ddng di lam thay vi di hgc tang tir 7,5% tdi 15,6%).^ Vi mat sue khoe: chan ddng hau de dga nghiem trgng tai san quy nhat ciia ngudi ngheo la siic khde va sue lao ddng ciia hg (Thuc tS d mihn Trung Mehicd thai ky 1998-2000 cho thay, tre em dudi tudi dl 6m NQhien cCru PhM trien ben vCrnp so (26) - ThanQ 3/2010 hon cd chan ddng thdi tiet: xac sudt tre em bi dm tang 16% ban ban va 41% lii lut Bien ddi hau da vat kiet tai san, vdn vat chat, cudp di co hdi cua ngudi).^ Nhung danh ddi ke tren dan den tinh trang vdng luan quan phat trien ngudi thdp khdng cd Idi Tuong tu nhu vdng ngheo ddi, vdng phat trien ngudi thap sinh ngudi ta khdng the vugt qua ngudng de kien tao mot vdng tien bd mdi phat tri?r_ nang lire Bien ddi hau la mot nhiing nhan td manh me nhat tri vdng ph'it trien ngudi thap (cung vdi vdng ludn quan ciia ngheo ddi) Riii ro gia tang gan lien vdi bien ddi hau cd tiem nang lam tang them nhiing vdng thiet thdi tuong lai III TAC DONG CUA BIEN DOI KHI HAU DEN XA HOI Of VIET NAM Viet Nam la mot nhirng qudc gia rat de xay nhiing kieu thdi tiet khac nghiet nhat va thudng xuyen chiu anh hudng ciia bao bien, bao nhiet ddi, lii lut va han ban Nhiing thien tai gay lut Igi d vung triing (vi du tran lut thang 11 nam 2008 tai Ha Ndi), lut tai ddng bang sdng Cuu Long (2000, 2001) va bao lii (ddng bang sdng Hong, khu vuc Mien Trung) Cac khu vuc dia hinh cao mua Idn thudng xay hi quel, gay Id dat, lam tang lugng phu sa bdi lang cac sdng, dieu lai dan den tinh trang lut idi nang ne d luu Cac hinh thai bao rat bat thudng va sir bat dn van tiep tuc dugc tri the ky tdi thi theo udc tinh tan xuat cac tran bao se tang len va cac khu vuc ven bien se phai chiu nhiing tran bao cd siic tan pha khiing khiep hon Theo nhiing udc tinh gan day, tong thiet hai thien tai, dac biet la bao lut va Id dat chiem gdn 1% GDP ciia ca nudc UNDP: Bao cao phat triln nguoi 2007/2008, tr92 UNDP: Bao cao phat triln eon nguoi 2007/2008, tr93 UNDP: Bao cao phat triln eon nguoi 2007/2008, tr93 m Nguyen Thj Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cCia bien doi hau Theo bao cao danh gia ICCP Ian thii xuat ban nam 2007, nhiet trung binh toan cau giai doan tir 1906-2005 da tang khoang 0,74°C va xu hudng am len vdng 50 nam vira qua so vdi 50 nam trudc dd Sd lieu ciia Bd Tai nguyen va Mdi trudng (MONRE) cdng bd vao thang nam 2009 ciing cho thay, vdng 50 nam qua (1958 2007), nhiet trung binh d Viet Nam da tang tu 0,5 den 0,7^C; nhiet miia ddng tang nhanh ban so vdi nhiet mua he, va nhiet d cac khu vuc phia Bac tang nhanh hon so vdi cac khu vuc phia Nam Nhiet trung binh hang nam thap ky tir 1961 - 2000 cao hon so vdi thap ky trudc dd (1931 - 1960) Trong nhiing nam gan day, Viet Nam chiu anh hudng ciia nhieu tran bao han va cd cudng manh ban Cac can bao cd xu hudng chuyen xudng phia Nam va mua bao cd xu hudng ket thiic mudn ban Cac bao cd hudng di chuyen bat binh thudng ciing nhieu hon Muc nudc bien tai Hdn Dau tang gan 20cm so vdi 50 nam trudc Nhiing tac ddng ciia bien ddi hau cd the xay d nhung vung ven bien bao gdm: giam dat ndng nghiep va dat dinh cu; nhiem man nudc bien xam thuc vao cac ciia bien, dac biet la vao mua khd; tang thiet hai lii va tang benh tat d ngudi va ddng vat, Tuy nhien, nhin ve lau dai, viec nudc bien dang cao ciing tao nhieu ca hdi mdi vi du nhu md rdng nudi trdng thiiy san Van de sinh ke cua nguoi dan La mot quoc gia hang dau tren the gidi cd kha nang de tdn thuong tac ddng ciia bien ddi hau, Viet Nam da dugc Lien hgp qudc chgn la qudc gia de tien hanh nghien cuu dien hinh ve bien ddi hau va phat trien ngudi Theo dd, sinh ke ciia ngudi Viet dang bi de dga nghiem trgng bdi nhiing thay ddi toan cau, ddi hdi mot tam nhin dai hai, mot ke hoach cu the va mang tinh chien luge Tren thuc te, sinh ke ciia hang chuc trieu ngudi Viet Nam dang bi de dga vdi nhiing anh hudng ciia bien ddi hau Van de va nhiing he qua ciia nd dang khien cho cudc sdng ngudi ngheo va nhirng ngudi can ngheo Viet Nam d vung niii, vung bien, vung ddng bang bj de dga Lugng mua that thudng va ludn bien ddi Nhiet tang cao ban, tinh hinh thdi tien khde liet ban; tan suat va cudng cua nhung dgt bao lii, trieu cudng tang dot bien; cac dich benh xuat hien va Ian tran; tinh trang thieu ngudn nudc tang cao Dien tich rimg ngap man ciing bi tac ddng manh; phan bd rung nguyen sinh, thii sinh cd the dich chuyen; nguy ca tuyet chiing cac loai ddng thuc vat gia tang; nguy ca chay rimg, phat tan dich benh cang hien hien; ngudn thuy, hai san cd thi bi phan tan, Cac chuyen gia canh bao rang, rieng viec nudc bien dang cao cd thi khiln 22 trieu ngudi Viet Nam indt nha d, mot phdn Idn dien tich ciia ddng bSng sdng Hdng va sdng Cuu Long cd the bi ngap lut nudc biln dang Do nhirng tac ddng tich luy len cac tai nguyen thien nhien, san xuat ndng nghiep, san lugng cdng nghiep va nang suat lao ddng va CO sd tang, phat trien kinh te tdng the ciing cd the phai ddi mat vdi nhiing thach thiic Idn Sir thuc la cac khu du lich va phat triln cdng nghiep mdi d Viet Nam hau het dhx nim d nhiing vung ven bien va ddng bdng - nai de cLiu anh hudng cua hien tugng triSu cudng (va hien tugng xdi Id dudng bd biSn), bao bien, bao nhiet ddi va hien tugng xam man vao ngudn nudc nggt cung vdi nhiing tac ddng khac ciing de lai nhiing hau qua nghiem trgng va tao khdng it nhiing nii ro cho dau tu Vung duyen hai Bdc Trung Bd la mot nhiing khu vuc chiu nhilu nii ro ciia bien ddi hau nhdt va la mot nhung vung cd pham vi va miic ngheo ddi cao nhat, nguyen nhan mot phdn cd thi la nhiing tac ddng lich sii ciia thien tai Dai bd phan dan sd vung lam ndng nghiep hoac ngudn sinh ke ciia hg phu ^hudc vao nhiing ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien (nudc, rimg, thiiy san), dd hoan canh sdng ciia hg bi tac dgng nghiem trgng bdi nhirng dilu kien thdi tiet Hien tugng tang tdn sudt cac hinh thai hau khde nghiet d vung dugc quan m NQhien ciru Phat trien ben wno so (26) - Thano 3/2010 NguySn Thi Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cua bien doi hau tam dac biet vi nd ciing lam tang thdi gian khac phuc hau qua ciia nhiing hd ngheo va tai tao nhiing tai san de doi phd vdi nhung tac ddng keo dai biln ddi hau gay Cac hinh thai hau khde nghiet va nhiing biln ddi khdng theo mua cd the gay nhiing tac ddng nghiem trgng anh hudng din sinh kl cac hg gia dinh va cdng ddng Nhiing tac ddng cua nii ro hau rdt da dang va cd the dugc hieu theo nhilu each khac Vi du, ngudi dan tinh Ha Tinh phan biet nhiing tac ddng ciia ban ban gay thiet hai Idn nhat cho nhiing hoat ddng san xuat ndng nghiep, bao va Idc xoay lai dang sg nhat vi chiing nguy hiem nhdt ddi vdi ngudi va tai san Tren thuc te, nhung kinh nghiem ve nii ro bao va Idc xoay ciing nhu nhirng ca tu vong hay chan thuong cd the lam tdn thuong tam ly nghiem trgng Bang sau day md ta nhiing nii ro thdi tilt dang chii y nhat ma ngudi dan d xa nghien ciiu thudng xuyen trai qua tai thdi diem nghien ciin (thang 4/2009) va nhiing tac ddng ciia nhiing nii ro len ngudn sinh ke BANG Tac dong ciia thien tai den sinh kl cua ngudi dan tai mot so xa thuoc cac tinh Bac Trung Bo Nhirng riii ro thoi tiet chu yeu Tac dQng len nguon sinh ke Ha Tinh Xa Hong Lpc XaKyNinh Han han, thai tiet lanh, bao - Han han: nang suat san xuat thap/hoa mau chit thilu nuoc vi xa nam cuoi h | thong thiiy Igi Song En - Thai tiet lanh: vat nuoi chet; nong dan o nha - Bao: thiet hai nguon thiiy san; tai san ho gia dinh bj tan pha Bao, han han, nuoc bien dang va xoi mon - Bao: thiet hai nghiem tai san ho gia dinh, co so tang va nguon thuy san - Han ban: nhung van de nghiem cho nganh nong nghiep vi xa nam cuoi he thong tirai tieu song Rae - Nuoc bien dang: xam man va xoi m6n->mat dat va tai san, tai nguyen nuae bi muoi hoa Hue Xa Quang An Lii lut, bao, thai tiet lanh, ngot hoa XaVTnh Hien Bao, lu, song Ian, boi tich (mat cua song), thai tiet lanh, ngot hoa - Bao: khong the khai; thiet hai tai san va ea so tang - Lu lut: mat mua; thiet hai tai san ho gia dinh - Thai tiet lanh: hoa mau bi chet - Ngot hoa: cac san pham nuoi thiiy san tang truong cham/chet Ngudn: UNDP/MONRE Du an doi ngheo va moi truong, 2009 Van de quyen nguoi Quan he giiia bien ddi hau ddi vdi cac quyen ngudi la quan he tuong tac Ndi each khac, biln ddi hau se anh hudng tieu cue din cac quyen ngudi, va ngugc lai, dam bao quyin ngudi ddi hdi phai ling phd thda dang ddi vdi bien ddi hau Trudc hit la quyen lam viec Quyen ve viec lam cd quan he mat thiet din "quyen cd NQhien ciru Phat then ben vOrnQ so (26) - ThanQ 3/2010 miic sdng thda dang" Tuy nhien, thuc te tren nhieu vung d nudc ta cho thay: viec dam bao quyen cd miic sdng thda dang ciia ngudi dan cd the bi anh hudng va thuoc rat nhieu vao dilu kien thien nhien Bien ddi hau khdng phai la sir tudc doat quyen sd hiiu vl ddt dai xet vl mat phap ly, song thuc tl, dd la mot sir tudc doat ghe gdm ciia thien nhien doi vdi quyen dugc tiep can vdi tu lieu Nguy&n Thi Hoa - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cCia bien doi hau Van de siic khoe ciia nguoi dan Viet Nam hien nay, ve ca ban, van la mot nudc cham phat trien; nen kinh te phu thuoc dang ke vao san xuat ndng nghiep, va nen ndng nghiep dd cdn phu thuoc nhieu vao dieu kien tu nhien, cue ky nhay cam vdi bien ddi hau Su gia tang nhiet va khd ban, lii lut thudng xuyen va khd du doan cd the de dga true tiep den an ninh luong thuc, gay thiet hai Idn cho chan nudi gia siic, gia cam va nudi trdng thiiy san Ty le suy dinh dudng tre em da giam manh vai thap ky qua, song nhieu benh tat d tre em lai phat sinh Nhirng hien tugng hau cue doan ciing da va dang gay nhieu thiet hai cho san xuat, sinh boat va sue khde ciia ngudi dan tren cac vung Ret dam, ret hai keo dai d cac tinh phia Bac lam cay cdi tmi la, rau xanh, hoa mau that bat, gia siic, gia cam bi chet; tre em, ngudi gia bi dm cac benh ve dudng hd hap, Dich ciim gia cam biing phat va ciim A H5N1 d ngudi xuat hien trudc va sau dip Tet Nguyen dan Trong dd, TP Hd Chi Minh va nhieu tinh phia Nam lai thudng phai ganh chiu nhiing dgt trieu cudng hay nhiem man nudc bien xam Ian Cudc sdng cua ngudi dan nhieu nai bi dao Ion, mudi gay benh sinh sdi manh, benh sdt xuat huyet gia tang Tat ca nhirng hien tugng bat thudng bien ddi hau nhiing nam qua ciing chi mdi la Idi canh bao ban ddu ciia thien nhien Vien canh cd le cdn khoe liet hon nhieu Sir bien ddi hau se true tilp de dga sue khde ngudi bdng nhiing bao dir, mua lii, khd ban va hda hoan keo theo sir thieu hut thuc pham, nudc uong, thudc men va cac dich vu khac Nhiet tang them se lam thay ddi sir phan bd va gia tang cac benh truyen nhiem nudc va thuc phdm bi d nhiem, trung gian truyin benh nhu mudi, ruoi, chudt Khdng bi d nhilm, dac biet tdng dzdn bi thung se lam tang ty le hen suyen, benh phdi Se xudt hien nliiing benh nguy hilm mdi ma chiing ta chua bill dugc Benh tat se lam tang sd ndm vien, nghi ciia hgc sinh, ngudi lao ddng, gay tdn thdt Idn cho nin kinh tl ddt nudc Cac dgt ndng se xuat hien cang day dac ban va dii ddi ban lam tang ty le benh tat va tii vong, nhat la ngudi ngheo, ngudi gia, tre em 0] NQhien ciru Phat then ben vQ-nQ so (26) - ThanQ 3/2010 san xuat quan trgng Nd lam cho dat dai bi sat Id, xdi mdn mau md, bi phii cat, nhiem phen, man, lam cho ndng dan thilu rudng dat de trdng trgt, ngu dan thilu viec lam suy thoai mdi trudng bien, Tiep den la quyen song vd quyen cua moi ngudi dat tdi mot tieu chudn sire khoe ve the chat vd tinh thdn d muc cao nhdt co the dugc (dieu 12 - Cac van kien qudc te ve quyen ngudi, Trung tam nghien cuu quyen ngudi) C) nudc ta, rieng thang 8/2008, tran mua lii Idn nhat 22 nam qua d cac tinh mien niii phia Bac da lam 98 ngudi chet Ngoai ra, hang loat nhiing benh tat va cai chet d nhiem tu thai, d nhiem ngudn nudc, d nhiem chat thai benh vien va d nhiem thuc pham da va dang dien vugt tam kiem soat Sau niia la quyen dugc hudng thu tham gia vdo ddi song vdn hoa, nhin tu gdc mdi trudng ciing dang la mot chu de can nghien cuu Bien ddi hau dang lam xdi mdn quyen dugc hudng thu mdi trudng thien nhien sach va nhieu quyen thuoc nhdm quyen ve van hda nhu thudng ngoan danh lam thang canh, cac khu bao tdn thien nhien va dang lam ngheo di tri thiic ve ddng thuc vat ciia cac the he sau Dieu dd cdn cd nghia tinh trang mat can bang sinh thai se dien ra, hau qua la khd ludng Viet Nam dugc gidi nghien cuu danh gia la mot nhiing qudc gia cd tinh da dang sinh hgc cao nhat the gidi Dang tiec la tinh da dang sinh hgc dang diing trudc nguy ca suy giam, sd lugng cac loai theo "sach dd" Viet Nam dang bi giam nhanh nhiing thap ky qua Thuc trang tren day ddi hdi trach nhiem bao ve mdi trudng va chdng lai su bien ddi hau nham dam bao cac quyen ngudi khdng phai chi thuoc ve Nha nudc ma cdn thuoc ve mdi ca nhan va cdng ddng xa hdi, khdng phai chi la sir cd gang rieng ciia mdi qudc gia ma can cd sir tham gia ciia cdng ddng qudc te Nguyen Thi Hda - Mot so tac dong xa hoi cCia bien doi hau Cd the ndi, biln ddi hau da va dang tac ddng nghiem trgng din cac ITnh vuc xa hdi khdng chi d cdp qudc gia ma d cdp toan cdu Nd la nguy co va thach thuc khdng chi cho hien tai ma ca thi he tuong lai Biln ddi hau khiln chiing ta phai chii y tdi tai san chung ciia chiing ta - dd la trai ddt Thi gidi ma chiing ta dang song da thay ddi, vdi nhieu lira chgn ban so vdi thdi ki bdt ddu cdng nghiep hda Cdng nghe mdi va dac biet la sir chuyen giao hieu qua cac cdng nghe mdi, cac ngudn nang lugng hieu xudt cao va nang lugng tai tao, phuong thuc quan ly ngudn lire dang tin cay cung nguon quy doi dao da tao dieu kien cho cac qudc gia vuon tdi su phat trien ben viing Cdng dong quoc tl va moi qudc gia can chung tay, gdp siic va hanh ddng de ngan chan tham hga ciia bien ddi hau, tien tdi muc tieu phat trien bin viing tren pham vi toan cau./ THAM KHAO Cao Due Thai, Trdn Thi Hong Hanh: "Anh hudmg cua bien doi hau, suy thoai moi truong den eac quyen eon nguai a Viet Nam hifn nay"; Tap chi Nghien ciiu nguoi; So l(40)/2009 Le Van Khoa: Moi truong va phat triln bin viJng; Nxb Giao due; Ha Noi, 2009 UNDP - WB: Bdo eao phat trien eon nguoi 2007/2008 UNDP/MONRE: Di; an doi ngheo va moi truong: "Xay dung cac chien luge thich ling va thich nghi eiia cac hoat dgng sinh ke ven bien doi voi anh huang ciia bien doi hau tai mien Trung Viet Nam", 2009 Trung tam Thong tin Khoa hgc va Cong nghe Quoc gia: Tong luan "Tac dgng eiia bien doi hau toan cau va su dang cao nuae bien"; Ha Noi, 2008 http://www.nhandan.org.vn/tet2009/tinbai/?top=167& sub=l 70&artiele= 139659 7.http://www.iuen.org/about/union/seeretariat/offic es/asia/asia_where_work/viemam/news/?uNewsID=23 49 8.http://khcn.vnuhcm.edu.vn/Source/FCKeditor/edi tor/FileUpload/File/THAM%20LUAN%20Mr%20H_ M_Hien.pdf 9.http://www.hanoitv.vn/index.php?option=com_e ontent&view=article&id=6665:-chong-bien-doi-khihau-su-nghiep-nhan-dao-vi-dai-cua-nhan-loai&catid=l 14:bai-viet-bien-doi-khi-hau&Itemid=l 62 NQhien ciru Ph^t then ben VUHQ so (26)- ThinQ 3/2010 m ' TAI LIEU ... cue doan nhu hien tugng bang tan, gia tang muc nudc bien, bao nhiet ddi tang, Ngoai ra, nhiing hanh ddng khai thac nang lugng khdng theo quy hoach ciia ngudi dang gdp phan lam pha huy he sinh. .. dien dan Nhan dao toan cau, thi trung binh mdi nam cd tdi 300.000 ngudi thiet mang va 300 trieu ngudi khac bi anh hudng bien ddi hau Tdi nam 2030, mdi nam cd khoang 500.000 ngudi chet nang ndng,... Theo bao cao danh gia ICCP Ian thii xuat ban nam 2007, nhiet trung binh toan cau giai doan tir 1906-2005 da tang khoang 0,74°C va xu hudng am len vdng 50 nam vira qua so vdi 50 nam trudc dd Sd
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