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KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM LẦN NHÀ XUẤT BẢN THÔNG TIN VÀ TRUYỀN THÔNG 2022 HỘI ĐỒNG BIÊN TẬP Ban đạo GS.TS Nguyễn Đơng Phong GS.TS Sử Đình Thành PGS.TS Phan Thị Bích Nguyệt TS Bùi Quang Hùng PGS.TS Bùi Thanh Tráng Ban chuyên môn GS.TS Trần Ngọc Thơ TS Đinh Thị Thu Hồng TS Lê Đạt Chí PGS.TS Trần Thị Hải Lý TS Ngơ Quang Hn TS Hồng Hải Yến TS Trần Anh Hoa TS Nguyễn Đức Trí TS Nguyễn Thị Hồng Thu Thư ký ban chuyên môn TS Quách Doanh Nghiệp TS Lê Thị Hồng Minh ThS Hồ Thu Hồi ThS Tơ Cơng Ngun Bảo ThS Nguyễn Văn Thiện Tâm LỜI MỞ ĐẦU M ặc dù đại dịch Covid-19 phần kiểm soát, hệ lụy với rủi ro cản trở phục hồi hoạt động kinh tế toàn cầu Covid19 đẩy tổng nợ toàn cầu lên mức cao nửa kỷ, làm gia tăng nghèo đói, thất nghiệp bất bình đẳng thu nhập, đồng thời làm giảm khả tiếp cận với giáo dục chăm sóc sức khỏe Trên giới, đặc biệt kinh tế lớn, lạm phát mức cao kể từ khủng hoảng tài tồn cầu Tuy nhiên, sách thắt chặt tiền tệ để kiềm chế lạm phát lại gây lo ngại suy thoái kinh tế Các dự báo tăng trưởng kinh tế toàn cầu cho hai năm tới trở nên lạc quan Trong kinh tế toàn cầu chưa kịp phục hồi sau đại dịch Covid-19, xung đột Nga Ukraine xảy ra, kèm với trừng phạt áp đặt từ bên làm trầm trọng thêm gián đoạn chuỗi cung ứng vốn cịn yếu ớt, đẩy giá nhiều hàng hóa chiến lược tăng cao, điển hình giá dầu mỏ lượng, tiếp đến giá lương thực, xúc tác thêm cho áp lực lạm phát, đồng thời tác động tiêu cực tới hoạt động kinh doanh, đầu tư tiêu dùng phạm vi toàn cầu Cục diện địa trị tồn cầu có nhiều thay đổi, kéo theo tái định hình vị khu vực Trong đó, châu Á ngày lên nhân tố chủ chốt định hình mạng lưới tài tồn cầu, mà trung tâm tài quốc tế quốc gia phát triển Hoa Kỳ, Anh… dường dần vị sau khủng hoảng tài 2008, Brexit, trừng phạt áp đặt lên tài sản đầu tư hệ thống toán kể từ xảy xung đột Nga-Ukraine Tuy nhiên, bối cảnh giới tài số xu hướng khơng thể cưỡng lại, thách thức để quốc gia châu Á có vị đồ tài quốc tế khơng nhỏ Cùng lúc đó, cạnh tranh chiến lược quốc gia lớn ngày gay gắt để tranh dành vị trí dẫn dắt Liệu vị Hoa kỳ vai trị tiền tệ quốc tế đồng la bị suy giảm? Khả Trung Quốc vươn lên để trở thành quốc gia dẫn đầu kinh tế toàn cầu đưa nhân dân tệ trở thành tiền tệ quốc tế? Và nhiều vấn đề đặt cho nhà hoạch định sách trước thay đổi cục diện toàn cầu Trước bối cảnh trên, Đại học Kinh tế TP.HCM, Tổ Tư vấn kinh tế Thủ tướng Báo Sài Gòn Giải Phóng Đầu tư Tài phối hợp đồng tổ chức hội thảo “Định hình lại hệ thống tài tồn cầu chiến lược Việt Nam - Lần 2” với tham gia thành viên Hội đồng Tư vấn sách tài chính, tiền tệ quốc gia Hội thảo nhằm tạo diễn đàn để nhà khoa học, chuyên gia, doanh nghiệp, tổ chức thảo luận chuyển động nói hệ thống tài tồn cầu; Việt Nam cần có chiến lược để thích ứng với thay đổi Việc nhận diện xu hướng, đánh giá hội rủi ro từ định hình lại hệ thống tài tồn cầu giúp nhà hoạch định sách, nhà đầu tư doanh nghiệp có phản ứng phù hợp Ban tổ chức hội thảo nhận nhiều tham luận từ nhiều học giả, nhà nghiên cứu, nhà hoạch định sách, giảng viên nghiên cứu sinh Các viết Ban tổ chức chuyển tới nhà khoa học ý kiến phản biện, 80 tham luận có đóng góp lý luận thực tiễn cho chủ đề trọng tâm hội thảo chọn đăng Kỷ yếu Kỷ yếu kết cấu năm phần Trong Phần 1, tham luận tập trung vào phân tích đánh giá Hệ thống tài tồn cầu chiến lược cho Việt Nam Phần thứ Kỷ yếu trình bày tham luận xoay quanh chủ đề Chính sách tài chính, tiền tệ tăng trưởng kinh tế Phần thứ Kỷ yếu tham luận Kinh tế số Fintech Các viết với chủ đề Thị trường tài sản tài mơi trường bất định trình bày Phần thứ Và tham luận Tài chính, kinh doanh quản trị cơng ty trình bày Phần thứ Với hàm lượng nội dung này, Ban tổ chức kỳ vọng Kỷ yếu hội thảo tài liệu tham khảo có ý nghĩa nhà hoạch định sách, nhà nghiên cứu, nhà quản lý doanh nghiệp, quan tâm đến thay đổi lớn xảy hệ thống tài Ban tổ chức hội thảo chân thành cảm ơn đóng góp quý báu tác giả cho nội dung Kỷ yếu TRÂN TRỌNG BAN TỔ CHỨC HỘI THẢO MỤC LỤC PHẦN HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CHO VIỆT NAM Ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô để ổn định thị trường tài bối cảnh - Hàm ý sách cho việt nam Nguyễn Đức Kiên & Chu Khánh Lân Cục diện địa tài chính-tiền tệ Châu Á lựa chọn cho Việt Nam Trần Ngọc Thơ Tồn cầu hóa hệ thống tiền tệ giới 17 Lê Đạt Chí & Đinh Thị Thu Hồng Hệ thống tài tồn cầu: Biến động định hình lại 25 Vũ Đình Ánh Chính sách tiền tệ sương mù lạm phát suy thối tồn cầu 29 Hồ Quốc Tuấn Mỹ Trung Quốc: Tái định hình trật tự lãnh đạo kinh tế toàn cầu? 38 Trần Hoài Nam & Phạm Dương Phương Thảo Trừng phạt kinh tế: Một sách ngoại giao mặc 51 Tơ Cơng Ngun Bảo, Huỳnh Thiên Tứ, & Nguyễn Văn Thiện Tâm Thị trường hóa hay phi thị trường hóa 70 Nguyễn Trí Minh Phịng chống dịng vốn bất hợp pháp q trình phát triển thị trường tài 75 Thomas H Tran PHẦN CHÍNH SÁCH TÀI CHÍNH, TIỀN TỆ VÀ TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ 10 Bất ổn toàn cầu chiến lược thích ứng doanh nghiệp Việt Nam 78 Nguyễn Khắc Quốc Bảo, Tô Công Nguyên Bảo, & Trần Nhật Hồng 11 Bất ổn sách, giá dầu lạm phát: Bằng chứng đa quốc gia Phan Thị Bích Nguyệt, Lê Đạt Chí, & Nguyễn Thị Diễm Kiều 94 12 Tác động mức độ phức tạp kinh tế tới biến động kinh tế kinh tế chuyển đổi 107 Chu Khánh Lân 13 Tác động sách vĩ mơ thận trọng đến hoạt động ngân hàng: Bằng chứng thực nghiệm Việt Nam 121 Đinh Thị Thu Hồng & Nguyễn Hữu Tuấn 14 Tác động lộ trình thắt chặt tiền tệ Hoa Kỳ đến kinh tế - tài Việt Nam 142 Nguyễn Xuân Lâm & Nguyễn Trọng Hồi 15 Tác động lan tỏa sách tiền tệ Mỹ, Trung Quốc EU tới năm kinh tế Châu Á 151 Quách Doanh Nghiệp, Nguyễn Văn Huy, Vũ Lộc, & Đỗ Ngọc Quỳnh Anh 16 Tác động sách hỗ trợ đại dịch đến vấn đề lạm phát hậu Covid 19 172 Nguyễn Hồng Thụy Bích Trâm 17 Các mơ hình giám sát tài giới lựa chọn phù hợp cho Việt Nam 178 Nguyễn Chu Du, Trần Đình Vân, & Nguyễn Quốc Việt 18 Nợ cơng nước phát triển bối cảnh đại dịch Covid-19 học cho Việt Nam 191 Nguyễn Thị Hồng Nhâm & Trần Minh Hiếu 19 Mơ hình lực hấp dẫn yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến cán cân thương mại Việt Nam bối cảnh cạnh tranh tồn cầu 201 Phạm Thị Anh Thư & Trần Đình Thái Lâm 20 Ngân hàng xanh: Kinh nghiệm quốc tế hàm ý sách cho Việt Nam 221 Đồn Thị Thanh Hoà, Trương Thị Nhi, &Trần Thị Hồng Cúc 21 Bất ổn sách kinh tế mức độ biến động tỷ giá hối đoái: Một chứng quốc tế 232 Nguyễn Văn Đức, Nguyễn Lê Na, Nguyễn Công Vĩnh, Phùng Ngân Huy, Lê Thanh Phương, & Tô Cơng Ngun Bảo 22 Tác động sách tiền tệ đến rủi ro hệ thống tổ chức tài chính: Nghiên cứu trường hợp Việt Nam Trầm Thị Xuân Hương & Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hoài 258 23 Tác động tín dụng tư nhân đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tăng trưởng bình quân đầu người ASEAN-5, giai đoạn 1986-2020 259 Nguyễn Hoàng Bảo 24 Nâng cao chất lượng nguồn nhân lực Việt Nam bối cảnh cách mạng công nghiệp 4.0 275 Nguyễn Chu Du 25 Vốn người đóng góp cho tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt Nam 284 Nguyễn Hoàng Bảo & Hồ Ngọc Khương 26 The moderating effect of financial development on the relationship of economic growth and environment in ASEAN-5 countries during 2000-2019 295 Su Thi Oanh Hoa, Tran Thi Diem Nga, & Dang Bac Hai 27 Corruption, institutional quality, and shadow economy in Asian countries 310 Nguyen Quang Khai & Huynh Cong Minh Anh PHẦN KINH TẾ SỐ VÀ FINTECH 28 Chuyển đổi số để không tụt hậu 311 Trần Văn 29 Vì Việt Nam cần gấp 316 khung pháp lý cho thị trường tài sản mã hóa? Hồ Quốc Tuấn 30 Cơ hội cho ngân hàng số Việt Nam 321 Nguyễn Đức Kiên, Dương Quốc Anh, Đào Minh Thắng, & Trần Văn 31 Sự phát triển cơng nghệ tài - Fintech 331 tương lai hệ thống tiền tệ toàn cầu Nguyễn Thị Liên Hoa & Lê Nguyên 32 Fintech: Tiện ích - rủi ro khung pháp lý bảo vệ người tiêu dùng thời đại số 345 Nguyễn Ngọc Trâm Anh 33 Ngân hàng trung ương giới phát hành tiền kỹ thuật số ngụ ý cho Việt Nam Vũ Việt Quảng 359 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TOÀN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN 26 THE MODERATING EFFECT OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE RELATIONSHIP OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENT IN ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES DURING 2000-2019 Su Thi Oanh Hoa1 Tran Thi Diem Nga1 Dang Bac Hai 1,2 Abstract The study investigates the relationship between economic growth and environment with the focus on moderating effect of financial development The economies of five middle – income countries in Southeast Asia, which are Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippine and Vietnam, have transitioned toward green growth The balanced panel data approach has been adopted for testing the relationship during ten years from 2000 to 2019 We applied Fixed Effects (FE), the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) and Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) to analyze and compare the effect factors The findings show that economic growth leads to degradation in environment and financial development in the region has amplified the negative impact of economic growth on environment Though it is in a low effect, it still reflects a support to the hypothesis that financial development is facilitating capital investments to high-carbon emissions business Therefore, it is crucial to review financial development polices among those countries whether they have priority setting and resources allocation to energy efficiencies, low-carbon industries, and technological advances to pursue sustainable economic development Keywords: Middle –income countries, Economic growth, Environment and Financial development Introduction Southeast Asian countries is among the fast growing economic bloc in the world, they have achieved a high rate of economic growth over the years, becoming the world’s fifth Khoa Kinh tế Tài nguyên Môi trường - Trường Đại học Tài nguyên Môi trường, TP.HCM| Email liên hệ: stohoa@hcmunre.edu.vn Ho Chi Minh City Open University 295 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TOÀN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN largest economy as comparing of a combined GDP (Nasir, Duc Huynh, & Xuan Tram, 2019) However, the success of ASEAN economies has been relied mainly on natural resources extraction for the demand of production for developed countries Their natural landscapes have transformed rapidly to industrial and urban areas across the region at a high scale (Gormus & Aydin, 2020) The study focused on the five countries in the Southeast Asian namely Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam (called ASEAN-5), which are the middle –income countries with a total of more than 660 million in population and accounting for 3% of the world output (WorldBank, 2022) They have played the important role to ensure the sustainable economic cooperation and development not only in the Southeast Asia but also in the world Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in these countries have been increasing in line with the industrialisation process, resulting in the loss of tropical forest and peatland rich in biodiversity Zeraibi, Balsalobre-Lorente, and Murshed (2021) indicated the dependency of fossil fuel is the root cause for high CO2 emissions Though they have made significant efforts to invest renewable energy these years, the renewable electricity generation capacities are remaining a rather small percentage than the other energy sources Thus, the apparent strategy toward green growth is replacing the dependency on fossil by a variable forms renewable energy It is likely to reduce the fossil fuel extraction and consumption, thus in turn, resulting in decreasing CO2 emissions The green economy has required a lot of efforts to shift away high carbon intensive industries to more resource efficient technologies and low carbon business model In the transition process, the financial sector has been proved as a central role in allocating the funds to support technological advances and sustainable business models In the study of Guru and Yadav (2019), they demonstrated that financial development has promoted the optimum allocation of capital by giving better information for the investment and made the easier financial access for the research and innovation, especially in small and medium enterprises Therefore, financial development is not only an outcome of economic growth but also a contribution to this growth In the body of literature, many studies about financial development have shown the mix effects on environment (Hunjra, Azam, Bruna, & Taskin, 2022; Jianguo, Ali, Alnori, & Ullah, 2022; Xiong, Zang, Feng, & Chen, 2022) For instance, Abokyi, Appiah-Konadu, Abokyi, and Oteng-Abayie (2019) claimed that financial development is linked to deteriorate the environment by facilitating capital investments to polluted production, especially in developing countries where fossil fuel is the dominant energy source On the other hand, Charfeddine, Yousef Al-Malk, and Al Korbi (2018) stated the good effect of financial development on environment by prioritizing the investments in green technologies, 296 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN business models whereby the adverse environmental impacts will be minimized Therefore, our study is seeking the answer of whether the financial development has amplified the good or bad effect on the relationship between economic growth and environment among ASEAN-5 countries Literature review 2.1 The treadmill of production theory There is the close relationship between economic growth and environment In the linear economic model, it is normally believed that economic growth will lead to an increment in environmental risk The main idea of the treadmill of production theory is that production is the key process to deteriorate the environment rapidly in worldwide Especially in developing countries, the environmental problems are the consequences of mass production from the demand of developed countries Schnaiberg (1980) argued that the production system had adopted new technologies to change in ways that requiring more energy, materials to replace the labor intensive production It accumulated more capital to make the transformation, which resulted in the expansion of production to a large-scale manufacturing and increasing the level of natural resources extraction as well as pollution emissions Consequently, along with the intensification of production, the rapid environmental degradation has been recognized on over the world Under the process of globalization, the manufacturers have been moving from developed to developing countries for more incentives of low labor salary and rich natural resources For developing countries, their economic interests greatly overwhelm the environmental interests, thus the governments have often undermined the various forms of legal and social actions against environmental degradation Therefore, the weak enforcement and pervasive noncompliance of environmental policies will create a vicious circle which makes the environment worsen (Rooij & McAllister, 2014) 2.2 Economic development and environment The most empirical studies giving the results that economic growth has affected significantly on CO2 emissions (Issaoui, Toumi, & Touili, 2015; Khan, Khan, & Rehan, 2020) According to Grossman and Krueger (1991), economic growth is critical to improve environmental quality Many authors suggested the quadratic regression for the relationship based on the hypothesis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) It shows the relationship between environmental quality and income per capita in an inverted U- shaped At the beginning, the economic growth will lead to damage to the environment, however, when it reaches at the certain level of high income, the turning point will occur to reserve the effect Panayotou (1993) explained the phenomenon by technology development and 297 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN public choices to invest on environment, therefore, economic growth will increase the environmental quality gradually However, Arrow et al (1995) and Stern (2004) criticized the optimistic assumption of Kuznets hypothesis that environmental degradation does not reduce economic growth and income in the future The existence of EKC has been tested in a lot of empirical studies testing in different regions and periods The mixed results have showed the un-stable of the existence of EKC all over the world Many authors indicated that the EKC hypothesis is supported within a panel of countries, while others are not (Shahbaz, Haouas, & Hoang, 2019; Stern, 2004; Sun, 1999) Even though the study of Shahbaz et al (2019) confirmed this existence of EKC in Vietnam during1974-2016, N-shaped is suggested for the future In summary, the validation of the EKC varies in functions of the country-specific factors, the periods and methods The EKC has existed mostly in high-income and in upper-middle-income countries 2.3 Energy consumption and environment As economic development, energy consumption is one of the key factors contribution to the high amount of CO2 emissions all over the world The reason is that fossil fuels constitute the largest share of energy consumption globally While the rising in energy demand for economic growth, the pressure will put on the extraction of natural resources, which results in environmental degradation The positive effect of energy consumption on CO2 emission has been proved in many empirical studies (Jebli, Youssef, & Ozturk, 2015; Kasman & Duman, 2015; Shahbaz, Mahalik, Shah, & Sato, 2016) Moreover, because of the importance of energy in every sector in the economy, it will be difficult to stop or lessen the reliance on energy for the sake of reducing CO2 emissions Therefore, it is crucial to ensure that energy is both produced and consumed sustainably by enhancing renewable energy development and using energy efficiently There is the possibility of decreasing CO2 emissions by transition to consuming of renewable energy (Dogan & Seker, 2016; Dong, Sun, Jiang, & Zeng, 2018; Saudi, Sinaga, & Jabarullah, 2019) The decline in CO2 emissions can be solved by the progressions in energy efficiency alongside the advancement of green sources of energy (Saudi et al., 2019) 2.4 The moderating effect of financial development Financial development and economic growth has closely related together Goldsmith (1969) stated the link between financial development and economy as the evidences that banks tend to become larger relative to national output Moreover, most empirical studies have found the positive relationship between financial development and economic growth in many regions in the world (T Beck & Levine, 2004; King & Levine, 1993; Wolde-Rufael, 2009) In fact, Levine (2005) pointed that financial industry mainly contribution to long – 298 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN run growth, investment decision and technology innovation Financial development triggers economic development through banks or equity markets by collecting and pooling savings and allocating resources to industries (T Beck & Levine, 2004) Because economic growth has significantly affected to environmental quality on both sides of positive and negative effects, therefore, it is questioned for the possibility that financial development can moderate the impact of economic growth on environment Xiong et al (2022) had categorized the empirical studies of the impact of financial development on CO2 emissions into two directions as amplifying the adverse effect or the reversed effect of economic growth on CO2 emissions Firstly, the financial system can mitigate the financing constraints for enterprises, reduce costs and improve corporate governance, therefore promoting economic growth based on the polluted business models (Levine, 2005) Secondly, it helps to allocate fund efficiently, such as withdrawing from high pollution to fund low-carbon industries, resulting in reducing emissions dramatically (Greenwood & Jovanovic, 1990) In addition, financial development has promoted research and technology development, as a result, green technologies, energy will decrease carbon emissions dramatically (Farhani & Solarin, 2017; Shahbaz, Solarin, Mahmood, & Arouri, 2013) Moreover, as the fast-growing carbon finance market, we can optimize carbon emission reduction at lower costs (Bredin, Hyde, & Muckley, 2014) Influencing on the previous researches, we investigate the moderating effect of financial development on the relationship between the dependent variable as CO2 emissions and the independent variables including economic development, energy consumption, financial development and interaction as economic and financial development (Gill, Hassan, & Haseeb, 2019; Katircioğlu & Taşpinar, 2017; Kwakwa, 2019; Xiong et al., 2022) Data and econometric methodology 3.1 Data The study uses balanced panel data for five middle–income countries in Southeast Asia, which including Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippine and Vietnam from 2000 to 2019 All variables of the data have been compiled from three sources as Our world in Data, United Nation Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and World Development Indicators In which, production based Carbon emissions (CO2) from fossil fuel (metric ton CO2 per capita) and energy consumption per capita (EC) (thousand Kwh) are from a source of Our world in Data Gross domestic product (GDP) (thousand USD per capita at constant prices in 2010) is from UNCTAD and domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) (FD) is taken from World Development Indicators 299 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN The purpose of our study is investigating the impact of economic growth and energy consumption on CO2 emissions Besides, the study also focuses on testing the assumption whether domestic credit to the private sector representing as Financial development will amplify the GDP effect on increasing CO2 emission Asia and the Pacific have pioneered the concept of green growth for the adoption of a green economy since 2000s Therefore, we have chosen period from 2000 to 2019 to assess ASEAN_5 (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippine and Vietnam) whether their shift to green economy be successful 3.2 Methodology Similar to previous researches as Gill et al (2019); Katircioğlu and Taşpinar (2017); Kwakwa (2019) and Xiong et al (2022), we consider the relationship between CO2 emissions, gross domestic product per capita (GDP), energy consumption per capita (EC), and domestic credit to the private sector (FD) In order to reduce the sharpness of data and prevent the incidence of heteroscedasticity, all the variables were transformed into natural logarithms The empirical model is defined below: lnCO2it =β0 + β1 lnGDPit+ β2 lnECit+εit (1) The study uses FD as a moderating variable to test the effect of the relationship between CO2 variable through GDP Therefore, our the second and the third empirical equations in the natural logarithms-linear form are constructed as follows: lnCO2it =β0 + β1 lnGDPit+ β2 lnECit+β3 lnFDit+β4 lnGDPit x lnFDit+εit (2) where, ln is natural logarithm; i is the number of countries in the sample; t is the number of years After using Variance inflation factor (VIF) test, the second estimated model has mean VIF 431.69 which is above 10 This result indicates high correlation and is a cause for concern Therefore, the study can’t adopt the variable lnFD and lnGDPxlnFD in one model Instead that, the third model without variable lnFD is accepted as the main estimated model for our study lnCO2it =β0 + β1 lnGDPit+ β2 lnECit+β3 lnGDPit x lnFDit+εit (3) In particular, the sign of β3 - coefficient of the interaction term indicates whether the interaction of FD and GDP rises or reduces CO2 emissions A statistically positive significant shows that FD enhances the adverse effects of GDP on the emissions and vice versa Besides, β3 relates to the estimation of the net effect of GDP on CO2 The net effect of GDP on carbon emissions conditional on FD is derived as follows: 300 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TOÀN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN ∆lnCO2 = β1 + β3 lnFD lnGDP At first, the study applied fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) estimation techniques, which are particularly used for panel data The FE method cannot be used to capture the effects of independent variables whose values not change across time In contrast, the RE method assumes that the unobserved variables are random and uncorrelated with the observed independent variables Besides that, because there is no control for omitted variables, the estimates can be biased (Wooldridge, 2012) Therefore, the Hausman test is run to determine which FE or RE is appropriate for our study Most of the time, these techniques (FE and RE) not solve problems in the regression model includes autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and cross-sectional correlation problems To take into disadvantages of the regression model, the study applies Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) Moreover, in order to check the robustness of the results, we use the Panels Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) method, developed by N Beck and Katz (1995) Using both techniques (FGLS and PCSEs) is to serve as robustness for data set to observe the consistency of the effects of GDP, EC and FD on carbon emissions However, as our study has the number of time periods transcending the number of cross-sections (T > N), the FGLS performs better results (Hoechle, 2007; Parks, 1967) Results 4.1 Descriptive statistics The summary statistics of estimated model which includes CO2 emissions, gross domestic product per capita (GDP), energy consumption per capita (EC), and domestic credit to the private sector (FD) are reported in Table while line histogram is shown in Figure Table 1: Descriptive statistics of variables Variable CO2 (metric ton) GDP (thousand USD per capita) EC (thousand Kwh) FD (% of GDP) Mean 3.0429 4198.482 Std Dev 2.3708 2988.841 960.541 78.1067 547.2149 43.1595 Min 0.6582 765.1857 Max 8.7218 12486.68 209.652 19.0985 2475.353 149.3733 Table shows the summary statistics of the model’s variables for group five nations of Southeast Asia On average, these nations of ASEAN_5 which have 4198.482 USD gross domestic product per capita, provide domestic credit to private sector 78.1067 percent of GDP Moreover, this middle-income group uses 960.541 thousand Kwh energy consumption per capita and emits 3.0429 metric ton CO2 per capita 301 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN Figure 1: Trend of C02 emissions per capita measures for five nations 2000 - 2019 Figure 3: Trend of FD measures for five nations 2000 – 2019 Figure 2: Trend of GDP per capita measures for five nations 2000 – 2019 Figure 4: Trend of ECP per capita measures for five nations 2000 - 2019 Based on the latest United Nations estimates in 2022, the South-Eastern Asia population is tantamount to 8.58% of the total world population In addition, due to accelerating economic activities, their carbon emissions are rapidly increasing (Lee, Sethupathi, Lee, Bhatia, & Mohamed, 2013) Figure shows that among the five Southeast Asia countries, Malaysia is the one which emits the highest carbon emissions per capita, followed by Thailand The remaining countries Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam had an increasing trend in CO2 emissions And Vietnam has gone up in emitting substantially since 2017 302 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN Figure presents that per capita GDP was an upward trend in all group five countries of the study Malaysia and Thailand had been continued on top While the GDP of Malaysia has risen steeply, Thailand has growth gradually Whereas Vietnam is the nation which has the lowest GDP per capital This behavior indicates the link between GDP and CO2 emissions Besides, Figure presents the mix direction in the changing of Domestic credit to the private sector (FD) for nations from 2000 to 2019 Indonesia and Philippines experienced a slightly upward trend in this period Particularly, Thailand and Malaysia are respectively the one having FD value which are the highest in group nations Additionally, the FD value of these nations had dramatically gone down in some stages, such as Thailand in 2009 and 2017; Malaysia in 2007 and 2010 In the last of period, Thailand has stayed stable since 2017, while Malaysia has a reduction from 2016 By contrast, the FD value Vietnam, which remained unstable at the beginning of this stage and then following the upward trend since 2013 In particular, Vietnam had overtaken Malaysia since 2016 and continued catching up with Thailand Energy consumption (EC) per capita is reported in Figure Most nations in this group had been increasing double or triple value of energy consumption from 2000 to 2019, except Philippines Indonesia was on the top and reached a peak in 2013, then went down from 2014 to 2015 After that, the EC value of Indonesia has been continued to rise Vietnam is also the nation which has energy consumption having an upward trend over 19 years 4.2 FGLS and PCSE results The results of the three regression technologies are presented in Table After using Hausman test with p-value is 0.0009, which is below 5%, the result confirms FE method is an appropriate technique for our panel data The study applies the Wald test which shows no presence of heteroscedasticity The result of the Wooldridge test with p-value is 0.018 < 0.05, which implied the null hypothesis is rejected This indicates that the data-set is autocorrelation As finding autocorrelation, the estimated model is necessitated a re-estimation using the FGLS method Columns 1, and of Table present the results from approaches included FE, the FGLS for main analysis, and PCSE for robustness checks The relationship between GDP per capita on carbon emissions is statistically significant at the 1% level The finding shows that a percentage change in economic growth leads to a 0.4% increase in carbon emissions Correspondingly, the effect of energy consumption on CO2 have statistically significant, indicates that 1% using energy consumption EC is projected to increase of 303 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN emissions 0.349% It is similar to the results of Gill et al (2019); Kwakwa (2019) and Guru and Yadav (2019) Table 2: FE, FGLS and PCSE Results FE lnGDP lnEC lnGDP x lnFD Constant No.of Obs/Group FGLS PCSE -0.322*** 0.400*** 0.467*** 0.744*** 0.349*** 0.249*** 0.024*** 0.021*** 0.032*** -2.378*** -5.520*** -5.738*** 100/5 100/5 100/5 R-squared 0.6943 R-squared within 0.9569 R-squared between 0.2272 R-squared overall 0.2891 Diagnostic test statistics Wald test Wooldridge test 3.53 14.995*** Note: *: significant at 10%; **: significant at 5%; ***: significant at 1% Source: The researcher’s data analysis On whether financial development variable (FD) moderates the effect of gross domestic product per capita (GDP) on carbon emissions, the result reveals that the coefficients of the interaction variable is positive and statistically significant at the 1% level With the influence of FD, the net effect of GDP on carbon emissions is calculated as 0.4903% (that is, 0.4007 + [0.0215 x mean lnFD]) for the FGLS model This concluded that the positive interaction of FD on GDP per capita which effects the GDP to lead a 0.4903% increase in CO2 emissions Thus, the interaction between GDP and FD amplifíe the increase of CO2 emissions It is contracted to the results of moderating effect of financial development in the studies in China, Malaysia as Xiong et al (2022) and Gill et al (2019) respectively, while as same as Katircioğlu and Taşpinar (2017) The reasoning is that financial corporations provided financial resources to the private sector; it promotes capital accumulation and technological progress As a result, it supports to develop economic growth Hence, in the case of ASEAN_5, under helping of financial development, individuals and corporations have used non-renewable energy on carbon emissions and decrease environmental degradation, in order to develop economic This behavior which is not encouraged Conclusion The current paper analyzes the effect of economic growth and energy consumption on CO2 emissions using the FGLS approach over the period 2000–2019 for ASEAN_5 304 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam) The main purpose of study is to investigate the role of Financial Development in moderating the impact of economic growth on carbon emissions This investigation takes highlights results on whether their interaction heightens or lessens the net effect of economic growth on CO2 emissions Our findings reveal that energy consumption (EC) is key factors contribution to the high amount of CO2 emissions in ASEAN_5 Due to monotonic fossil fuel dependency, the economic development of ASEAN_5 countries have been burdening the environment Besides that, the Beta coefficient of energy consumption in the estimated model based on FGLS (0.311%) is rather low in comparison to other parts of Africa (Adeleye, Osabohien, Lawal, & Alwis, 2021) Hence, this is the good signal of progressions in the advancement of green energy development in the region as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam increasing the share of renewable energy rapidly in period 2000 - 2019 (based on measure in source of Our world in Data) Moreover, the results also showed the positive effect of economic growth and CO2 emissions in ASEAN_ This can be comprehended the more economic growth is, the more environmental degradation is Besides, with the positive effect of domestic credit to the private sector representing as Financial development on GDP, we find that the net effect of GDP increase after calculating for financial development, which causes more CO2 emissions As a result, the current financial sector of ASEAN _5 has still facilitated business polluting high amount of CO2 emissions The economic growth provided by financial corporations of this middle-income has continued developing based on causing bad adverse to environmental In closing, the Governments of ASEAN _5 should issue financial policies related to priority setting and resources allocation to fund the low- carbon industries as well as supporting the progress of green technology Which will help to decline the costs of providing finance for green industries, and apply leverage financial effects to reduce the investment into the high–carbon industries In addition, especially the banking sector, more incentives should be introduced to attract the investment on cost-efficient energy technology, such as applying interest discounts for motivating to use renewable energy resources Moreover, government should promote the reporting of CO2 emissions as the basic requirements in business and financial activities These policies are significant contributions to the reduction of emissions and through the measure of financial development References Abokyi, E., Appiah-Konadu, P., Abokyi, F., & Oteng-Abayie, E F (2019) Industrial growth and emissions of CO2 in Ghana: The role of financial development and fossil fuel consumption Energy Reports, 5, 1339-1353 doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2019.09.002 305 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - 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KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM LẦN NHÀ XUẤT BẢN THÔNG TIN VÀ TRUYỀN THÔNG 2022 HỘI ĐỒNG BIÊN TẬP Ban... phát hành tiền kỹ thuật số ngụ ý cho Việt Nam Vũ Việt Quảng 359 HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC GIA ĐỊNH HÌNH LẠI HỆ THỐNG TÀI CHÍNH TỒN CẦU VÀ CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA VIỆT NAM - LẦN 26 THE MODERATING EFFECT OF... Đầu tư Tài phối hợp đồng tổ chức hội thảo ? ?Định hình lại hệ thống tài tồn cầu chiến lược Việt Nam - Lần 2” với tham gia thành viên Hội đồng Tư vấn sách tài chính, tiền tệ quốc gia Hội thảo nhằm
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