Di động nghề nghiệp liên thế hệ ở nam bộ một số một số vấn đề phương pháp luận

14 CHUYEN MUC KINH T t HOC - XA HOl HOC Dl DONG NGHE NGHIEP LIEN TH^ HE Cf NAM BO: MOT s V A N D ^ PHU'QNG PHAP L U A N NGUYEN NGQC TOAI" Cac nghiin cuu vi phan ting xa hgi d Viit Nam cho den thudng it quan tim den khia canh di dgng xa hdi, die bigt li di ddng xa hdi lien thi hi, mgt phin la thiiu cic ngudn du lieu can thiet vi ddng bg Bii viet niy cung cip mgt sd phuong phip luin di giii quyet cic vin di thwc tien dit nghiin cuu didgng nghe nghiep lien thi hi - mgt ludng trung tam cda di dgng xi hdi, bao gdm viic kit ndi cic bg sd Hdu, Iwa chgn khung phan logi nghi nghldp, xic anh eic the hi, vi ludng a ddng nghi nghigp bdi canh eg thi tgi vung Nam Bd Cic vin di phuong phip luin trin gdp phan md nhOng hudng nghiin cOu thwc nghigm vi di dgng xa hgi tO cic co sd dO liiu khic hiin TO khda: Nghf nghiep, di dfng nghi nghifp, di dfng nghi nghifp lien fhl hf, di dpng xd hfi Ngiy nhin bii: 29/6/2016; dua vio bien tgp: 10/7/2016; phan bign- 28/7/2016duyit ding: 6/12/2016 I.GlOl THIEU Tren the gidi, nghifn eii'u v l phan tang xd hdi vd di ddng xd hpi cd ljch su Idu ddi vd da cd nhilu cdng trinh nghien euu de cfp tdi cde khia cgnh IJdc ve ehu de Vift Nam, dtnh T ton ' ' ' '"" i 20 T m r? ^ ° ^ ' " " • 2012 10) Cac dja chi chinh Khoa hpc xd hOi viing Nam BO khdng thi bo qua tim hieu tinh hinh nghien ciru v l ehii de ndy Id Ngdn hdng Thi Gidi vd Ting cyc Thing kf; cym ede ca quan nghifn cuu cua Oang ma ndng elt Id Hpc vifn Chinh tri QuIe gia H i Chi Minh; "' ^'^" ^''^ '^-^ Khoa hpe Xd hfi Vift ^^'^- "^'-9 •^' N - - Bf, Vife nghifn euu v l phan ting xd hfi d Vifn Khoa hoc xa hfi vimg Nam Bp da bit diu dugc quan tam tir cuoi thfp nifn 1970 ii NGUYEN NGOC TOAI - DIOQNG NGHE NflHIPP LIEN THE HE Qua trinh nghien ciru cfi t h i dugc chia lam giai dogn ehinh: cuoi t h f p nien 1970 d i n giOa thgp nien 1990, nii'a c u l l thgp nien 1990 den giO'a thap nien 2000 vd nua c u l l thgp nifn 2000 d i n Tuang irng vdi cac giai dogn ndy thi so lugng i n pham ve chii d f cung khfing ngirng tang I f n (Biii T h i Cudng 2015a: 42-57).Tuy nhien, tir dd d f n nay, ehua ed mpt efing trinh ndo v l ehu d l d Viet Nam duge thye hifn ed d i y dii t i t ea ndi dung ciia nd nhu cdc nhd xa hpi hpe tren t h i gidi thydng lam (Do Thien Kinh 2012: 10) Cy t h i , cdc nghien ciru thudng chf tap trung vdo khia cgnh phan t i n g xd hfi, ed r i t it cac nghien ciru ve di ddng xd hpi, ddc bift Id di dpng xa hdi lien t h i he Di dgng xa hdi (social mobility) Id s y djch chuyin - thudng Id ciia cd nhdn nhung ddi Id ciia nhdm - giua cac vj tri khdc frong h f thong phan t i n g xd hpi Trong dd, di ddng nghi nghiip (occupational mobility) de c f p d i n s y v f n dpng eiia mdt nhdm n g h i nghifp, hofc eiia ed nhdn thdnh vifn m f t n g h i nghifp, hofc eua mdt eho tring nghe nghiep, dien h f thong phdn t i n g eua khdng gian xd hpi Di ddng liin thi hg de egp d i n di dfng giua mpt vj tri vi f h l hay vj tri giai c i p ciia ban than mdt ngudi so vdi vj tri cua gia dinh g l e eiia ngudi dd {TO ain x§ hgi hgc Oxfonj 2010: 140-141) Nhu vgy, v l ea ban cdc khdi nifm ndy cimg d l c f p tdi s y djeh ehuyen ciia mpt ed nhan hay mpt nhdm xd h f i giOa cdc thang b f c phdn 15 t i n g xa hpi Khai niem di dpng xa hpi CO npi ham rpng han so vdi di dpng nghf nghiep, ben cgnh s y dich ehuyen v l mat n g h i nghiep (di len hoac di xuing), di dpng xa hpi cdn bao ham no nhirng s u dieh ehuyen v l mat gido dye, van hda, quyen lyc Tuy nhien, khufin kho cua eac chifu kich giai c i p , vi t h i vd (^uyln lyc cua phan t i n g xd hpi, n g h i nghiep eung c i p mpt chf bdo dan tfit n h i t hoac it n h i t la kha thi nhat, v l vj tri tuang d l i eua eac giai c i p , t i n g Idp mdt xd hdi (Le Thanh Sang 2010: 40) Trong khufin kho nghien eii'u Di dgng nghi nghiep Hen the hi d Nam Bg^^\ bdi v i i t phdn tieh nhirng uu d i l m vd han c h l v l mat phuang phap lufn vife s u dung nguon so lifu, khung phan loai n g h i nghifp, phuang phdp xdc djnh ede the he vd phuang phdp ludng di dpng n g h i nghifp dugc s u dyng nghien eii'u ndy, tir dd cd t h i m d nhung hudng nghien ciru thuc nghiem v l di dfng n g h i nghifp tren cdc ea s d d u lieu khdc hifn PHU-ONG P H A P L U A N NGHIEN cau 2.1 K i t noi nguon d u lifu Nguin s l lieu chinh ciia nghifn ciru ndy dugc xir ly tir k i t qua eiia cufe khao sat Co cau xi hdi, van hda vi phuc /g» xa hgi V i f n Khoa hpe xa hdi vimg Nam Bp t i l n hdnh nam 2008 tgi Tdy Nam Bp, ndm 2010 tgi TPHCM vd Dfing Nam Bp (xem them T r i n Oan Tdm 2010)'^' 16 TAP CHl KHOA HQC XA HQl sd 9(217) 2016 Cde nghien ciru deu sir dyng phuang phdp chpn miu xac suit dgi difn cho todn Tay Nam Bp (2008), TPHCM va Dfing Nam Bp (2010) Tuy nhifn, vi quy md dan sfi eiia tirng tilu vimg khac nhau, nfn de ed thi mang tinh dgi difn eho toan Nam Bd, viee kit noi bp so lifu thdnh mpt bp so lifu thong nhit cin tinh tdi vifc sii' dyng mpt biln gia trpng d l dilu chfnh quy md dan so tuang ung cho tirng tilu vimg 2010 khfing cd sy thay doi ddng kl Do dd, ve ca ban, chiing toi cho ring nhii'ng thay doi tren la eo the chip nhan dugc va bp so lieu kit hgp tir cupc khao sat ndi tren ed the dgi difn cho todn Nam Bp nam 2010 Thdi dilm khao sdt cung la van de ddng luu y, vi cufe khao sdt tgi Tdy Nam Bf (2008) Igi sdm han ndm so vdi cde khao sdt tgi TPHCM vd Dfing Nam Bp (2010) Tuy nhifn, theo kit qua khao sdt mue sing dan eu Vift Nam 2012 (xem Bang 1), ty If dan s l tir 15 tuoi trd len chia theo ngdnh kinh t l tgi Tdy Nam Bp giai dogn 2008- Trong nghifn ciru ndy, vife kit hgp ba bp so lieu dya trfn mpt sfi tieu ehi chinh nhu sau: Nhirng thfing tin nhdn khau hpc v l todn bp nhdn khiu (gidi tinh, ndm sinh, dfn tpc, tinh trgng hfin nhan, tfin giao, hpe vin.,.); Nhirng thfing tin ve dja bdn nghifn ciru (chia theo vimg, nfing thdn-dd thj ); - Nhyng thdng tin v l dilu kifn kinh t l xd hdi ciia hp (logi nhd d, difn tich dit, mire song gia dinh ); Nhirng thdng tin ve vife Idm, thu nhfp vd ehi tifu eiia tit Bang Ddn sd tir 15 tuoi trd Idn Idm cdng vifc chifm ea nhan khau hf nhifu fhdi gian nhdt 12 thdng qua chia theo ngdnh kinh t l t9i Tdy Nam Bf ndm 2008 vd 2010 (%) NOng, ldm nghifp thuy sdn COng nghiOp khai thdc md COng nghiep ch6 bi4n Sdn xudt, phdn phdi dipn nudc, xdy dg'ng Thuang nghiOp 2008 2010 55,0 49,2 0,2 0,1 11,8 11,9 4,6 5,9 12,3 3,0 14,9 Tdi chlnh, tin dgng Cdc dich vg khdc 0,3 4,9 0,4 Qgan ly nhd nudc an ninh, qgdc phdng 2,2 2,5 Vfn tdi, kho bdi vd thOng tin lidn Igc Gido dgc, y tf, vdn hda, thi dye the thao Khdc 3,0 5,5 1,1 4,1 4,7 2,5 Ngudn: Kft qga khao sdt muc song ddn cu Vift Nam 2012: 118 Tir bp so lieu dd dugc kit hgp ndy, cdc thdng tin ve dilu kifn kinh t l xd hpi eiia hp, thfng tin vifc lam vd thu nhfp, thfing tin v l dja bdn nghifn ciru se dugc sir dyng Idm ca sd cho cdc phdn tieh mfi ta ve birc tranh phdn ting xd hpi eung nhu birc tranh di dfng nghi nghifp giua ede thi hf gia dinh Bfn cgnh dd, ede thfing tin ndy sf dugc md hfia thdnh cdc I ^ _ NGUYEN NGQC TOAI - Dl QQNG NGHE NGHIEP LIEN THE HE- b i l n dpc I f p sir dyng mfi hinh hoi quy logistic nhdm tim cac yeu to anh hudng tdi qud trinh di dpng 2.2 Lya chpn khung phan logi n g h i nghiep Trong nghien ctru ve phan t i n g xd hpi ndi Chung va di dpng xa hdi ndi rieng, thach thuc Idn n h i t d l i vdi cde nhd nghien ciru chinh Id viec thao tac hda ede khdi niem mang tinh ly thuyit thdnh cac ehf bdo cd t h i ludng duge thye t l (Le Thanh Sang 2010: 31) Hien nay, da s l cdc nhd xd p, hpi hpe tren t h i gidi da lya chpn tieu P c h u i n tong hgp Id n g h i nghifp d l phan logi/phan nhdm vd x l p hgng cde t i n g Idp xa hpi (Do Thien Kinh 2013: 11) vi n g h i nghifp the hifn t f p trung n h i t cde ehilu kich kinh tl-xd h f i (thu nhdp, hpc v i n ) va vj the (uy tin) eiia cdc giai c i p , t i n g Idp xd hpi (Le Thanh Sang 2010: 31) Tuy nhifn, vife xac djnh logi nghe nghifp, tap hgp theo nhdm, eung nhu de x l p hgng ehiing mpt cdch hifu qua n h i t ve mdt ly thuyit n h i m su' dyng eho ede mye dieh nghifn ciru v i n dang cdn nhilu thdch thu-c Cd mdt d i l m Chung la ede nghifn ciru diln hinh v l chu d l tgi mpt s l nudc phdt triln nhu Hoa Ky, Anh, Canada (Thang SES'^' cua Tong dieu tra dan so Hoa Ky, h f thong ludng ciia Duncan, h f thong x l p hgng cua Siegel, eac c i p bdc nghe nghifp cua Hollingshead ) d i u dya trfn eac djnh nghia eiia cde ehinh phii v l dan vi phdn tich ca ban vd cac mire dp phf n tang lifn quan d l xay dyng cac h f 17 thong thir bac nghf nghiep (Le Thanh Sang 2010: 40) Trong qua trinh hpi nhap vdi xa hpi hpe t h i gidi, eac nghien eii'u g i n day tgi Viet Nam ve ehu d l phan t i n g vd ca cau xa hpi tren quy mfi ca nude (Do Thien Kinh 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015) cap vimg (Bill T h i Cudng va Le Thanh Sang 2010; Bill T h i Cudng va Phgm Thi Dung 2016; Bill T h i Cudng 2015b, 2016; L f Thanh Sang va Nguyen Thj Minh Chau 2013; Le Thanh Sang 2009, 2011; Le T h i Vung 2010) hay tgi ede dia phuang/cfing d i n g (Biii T h i Cudng 2011, 2013; Hodng Thj Quyfn 2013) deu dya tren danh myc nghi nghiep Tong eye Thing ke ban hdnh de phan loai/phdn nhdm xd hpi Ben cgnh dd, h i u h i t cde nghien ciru ndy cung k i t hgp vdi cac chf so ve d i l u kien kinh tl-xa h f i ciia ed nhdn vd hd gia dinh (nhd d , thu nhgp, ehi tieu, hpc van, tham gia cdc to chu-e chinh trj-xa hdi ) d l t i l n hanh s i p x l p thir bgc giO'a eac nhdm vd phan tang xd hpi Mpt so nghien ciru hgn c h l han (Do Thien Kinh 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015; Biii The Cudng vd Phgm Thj Dung 2016) edn su- dung them d i l m so uy tin n g h i nghiep theo ddnh gif eua ngudi dan'"', k i t hgp vdi cde ehf bdo kinh tl-xd hpi de tien hanh xep b f c n g h i nghifp Cimg each t i l p c f n dd, nghien eiru^ndy, vifc phdn logi/phan nhdm n g h i cung dugc dya vao danh myc vd ma so nghe nghifp Vift Nam (Ban hdnh kem theo Quyft djnh s l 114/ o c XV HOI ay ^'^' StUB T 18 TAP CHf KHOA HQC XA HQI sd 9(217) 2016 1998/QO-TCTK 29/3/1998 ciia giira cac nhdm va phdn tang xd h f i Tong eye Thong ke) Oja vj kinh te-xa Ket qua hfii m d rpng (ea v l mat "khach quan" nghiep nhu Bang So vdi cde va 'chu quan")**' la tieu chuin chia nhdm nghi de nghien ciru ndi tren, viec phan chia vd chimg tfii t i l n hdnh sap x l p thir bac s i p x l p thir bgc giua cac nhdm nghe Bang Khung phdn logi nhdm va bfc nghe de tdi "Di dgng xd hpi lien the hf a Nam Bd" STT/ TOn nhdm bfc nghe Mo ta nhdm n g h i Md nghf TCTK* Capl Cdp TCr 11 tdi 19 2vd3 TCr 21 d i n 34 Ldnh dgo Ldnh dgo Dang, Chlnh quyen, Dodn t h i , ca quan s y nghifp tir cdc cdp ca s d trd lOn Quan ly cdc cOng ty vdi chirc danh fCf trudng, phd phdng trd lOn Chii t u nhdn (chu y4g Id cdc c a s d san x u i t tieu thu cOng nghifp, thuang mgi, dich vg) ChuySn vign ky thuft ChgyOn mOn ky thgdf b f c trgng-cao Ndng ddn ldp trOn Nflng ddn cO nhilg rgOng d i t , Id lao dOng cd k j thgft trang nOng-ldm-ngu nghifp vd cO mice ruOng ddt/mft nudc (sd h&g vd/hofc thuO) binh qudn nhdn k h i u hO tir 5000m^ trd ldn Nhdn viOn Nhdn vi6n thuang mgi-djch vg: k f todn, thu ky, thu quy, buu diOn, thu vifn, ngdn hdng cd trinh dO tir trgng cdp trd lOn hodc tuanq duanq TCf 41 d i n 42 Budn bdndich vg Hogt dOng chg y | g ITnh vyc thuang nghifp, bgOn bdn, dich vg: bdn tgp hda, cdt tdc, budn bdn nhd (chO, tgi cha, cO qudy), bdo vf, phgc vu khdch sgn TCr 51 d i n 52 COng nhdn- COng nhdn, thpr thu cOng Idnh ngh^ cd kj? thuft, thg k j thpthg thudt ldp rdp vd v f n hdnh mdy, thilt bi (bao gdm cd 7vd8 cOnq nhung ngudi sua xe, sii'a diOn thogi ) NOng ddn Idp giua NOng ddn cd muc ruOng ddt trung binh, Id lao d f n g cd ky thgdt trcng ndng Idm ngu nghifp vd cd mirc rgfng ddtfmdf nudc (sd htrg vd/hofc thgO) binh qudn nhdn khdu hO t u 1000-dudi 5000m^ Nflng ddn Idp dudi NOng ddn It hofc khflng cd ddt Id lao dOng cd ky thuft ndng Idm ngu nghifp vd cd mirc rufng ddt/mft nudc (sd hiru vd/hodc thud) binh qudn nhdn k h i u h f dudi 1000m' Lao dOng gidn dan Lao ddng gidn dan gdm nflng ddn Idm thud d nOng thOn vd lao dfng Idm thgg , bdn dgo via hd tgp vuqudtdpn '^ ^ 9 TCr 71 tdi 83 Tif 91 tdi 93 Ngudn: Nguyen Ngpc Togi, 2016 •Tuang ung vdi md nghi cdp vd cdp danh mgc md nghi cua Tdng cgc Thdng NGUYEN NGQC TOAI - Dl DQNG NGHE NGHIEP LIEN THE HE 19 Bang 3: Bang tdng hgp vd so sdnh khung phdn logi nhdm va bac nghi fir mdt s6 nghien cuu gan ddy Bfc LO Thanh Sang vd Nguyen Thj Minh Chdu CJuan ly Nhd nudc Bill Thi Cudng vd Pham Thj Dung Quan ly Nha nudc bdc trdn Qudn ly cdng ty Chu sd huu bdc tren Chu tu nhdn 6/ 10 11 Quan ly Nhd nudc bdc dudi Cflng nhdn-tha Chu sd h&g bfc dudi thu cflng NOng ddn Idp Chuydn mOn bdc dudi trdn Nflng ddn Idp giO'a Nong ddn Idp dudi Lao dflng gian 3an Nflng ddn bfc giO-a Ldnh dao Hodng Thj QuyOn Cdc nhd Idnh dgo, qudn ly i/a cac nhd chuyen mOn ky thudt bdc trung vd cao Doanh nhdn Djch vg-buOn bdn Chuyen mOn Cflng nhdn cao Nflng ddn bdc tren Chuydn viOn ky ChuyOn mdn bdc trdn thuft Nhdn vidn Do Thien Kinh Nhdn vidn Nflng ddn Bgfln bdndjch vg Tilu thii cOng vd lao dpng tudo Cdng nhdn Tilu thu cflng nghifp Lao dflng gian dan COng nhdn, tha fhO cflng NOng ddn NOng ddn bdc dudi Lao dOng phi nflng nghlQp bfc dudi Ngudn: Tdng hgp tu Ld Thanh Sang vd Nguyin Thj Minh Chdu 2013; Biii Thi Cudno vd Phgm Thi Dung 2016; D5 Thien Kinh 2012, 2015; vd Hodng Thj Quyen 2013 bai viit ndy ed mft s l dilm tuang dong va khde bift nhu sau (xem them Bang 3) Nhin Chung, each sip xlp thir bac cac nhdm nghi la kha tuang dong giua cde nghifn ciru Tuy nhifn, gidi hgn ciia nguin so lifu va tiiy vdo myc dich cy thi eua tirng nghien ctru ma s l lugng nhdm nghi cOng nhu mue df chi tilt cdch phan loai nhdm nghi se ed sy khac gi&a eac nghifn ciru Ching hgn, cdch phfn logi eua Do Thifn Kinh (2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015), eac nhd Lanh dao duge tach mft nhdm rifng va dugc xlp bfc cao nhit thang bgc phfn ting xa hdi Trong nghien ciru cua Hoang Thj Quyen (2013) thi cac nhd lanh dgo, quan ly va cac nha chuyen mdn ky thugt bfc tmng - eao duge gdp thdnh mpt nhdm va duge dat d vj tri eao nhit Nguge lgi vdi hai tac gia trfn xu hudng Chung cdc nghifn eii'u cua Biii Thi Cudng va Le Thanh Sang (2010), Bui Thi Cudng va Phgm Thi Dung " r~' > ? S l'J^•^n ^.A ^,., _ ^-.r^.^.r^, " 20 (2016), Le Thanh Sang va Nguyen Thi Minh Chau (2013), Lf Thanh Sang (2009 2011) la e l ging phan tach nhom nghi d cafc mirc dp ehi tilt han (vi du, nhdm Lanh dao se dugc chia thanh: quan ly Nha nudc, quan ly cdng ty va chii tu nhan; nhdm chuyfn vifn ky thuft se dugc tach thdnh chuyfn mfin bfc tren va ehuyen mfin bfc dudi ) Trong nghien ciru nay, giai dogn diu ehiing tfii eung tiln hdnh phan logi nhdm nghi d mire chi tilt nhit cd thi (phfn logi tdi ma nghi cap II danh mye nghi eiia Tong cyc Thing kf); sau dd, tiiy vdo ty If tirng nhdm nghe ey the la eao hay thip, ehiing tfli se tiln hdnh gpp ede nhdm nghi ndy Igi vdi thdnh It nhdm nghi han nhung van bao dam duge nhung dfc dilm ca ban tirng thang bfc phfn ting va phii hgp vdi cde phfn tieh thong ke nghien euu Ben cgnh dd, khdc bift Idn nhat gi&a nghien ciru ndy cQng nhu ede nghifn ciru khde ciia Btii Thi Cudng vd Lf Thanh Sang (2010), Biii Thi Cudng vd Phgm Thj Dung (2016), Bui Thi Cudng (2015b), Le Thanh Sang va Nguyin Thj Minh Chau (2013), Le Thanh Sang (2009, 2011) so vdi nghien euu cua 05 Thifn Kinh (2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015) vd Hodng Thi Quy§n (2013) chinh Id each djnh nghTa va sip xlp thir bfc dli vdi nhdm nghi ndng nghifp Trong danh mue cdc nhdm nghi cip I Tong eye Thing ke ban hdnh, tat ea lao dfng cd ky thuft ndng nghifp, TAP CHl KHOA HQC XA HQl sd 9(217) 2016 lam nghifp va thiiy san duge gom vdo mpt nhdm vdi ma so cip I la 06 Cdn nhdm lao dfing gian dan nfing, lam nghiep, thuy san cfi ma so cip I Id 09, cap II la 92 Trong cac nghien ciru ciia minh, 06 Thien Kinh da gom nhdm ting Idp nfing dan ndi chung Theo ehiing tfii, tang Idp nfing dan theo each phan logi ciia tdc gia 06 Thien Kinh chua phan anh mpt each rd nhit cac dac trung cua nhdm dieu kien hien Trong thyc t l hifn nay, ting Idp ndng dan tgi Nam Bf ndi chung khfing cdn dong nhit theo nghTa nfing dan "truyin thong" ma da cd sy phan hda khd rfi vd di kem vdi la sy khdc bift Idn v l cde dieu kifn kinh t l - xa hfi ndi bp nhdm nay; sy phan hda ndy cd xu hudng ngdy cdng manh han ciing vdi qud trinh tieh ty rupng dit, qud trinh cdng nghifp hfia, hifn dgi hda san xuit nfing nghifp hifn Theo L§ Thanh Sang (2009: 23), cd sy phdn hda rit dang ke gi&a nhung nfing ddn ed difn tich canh tac ldn, trung binh, va it hogc thuf mudn rufng dit de canh tde Ody Id mpt nhung ehilu kich quan trpng nhit de Idm ea sd cho sy phfn ting xa hpi Han n&a, vi nfing dan ehilm da s l d Tay Nam Bp, sy phdn hda cin phai dugc tinh din nghifn cuu ede ting Idp xa hfi Mpt bf phfn nho nfing dfn cd quy mfi difn tich dit nfing nghifp ldn, cd the dp dyng cdc mfi hinh san xuit nfing nghifp hifn dgi Trong do, da s6 nfing dfn sd h&u difn tieh quy mfi trung binh Id \ NGUYEN NGQC TOAI - Dl DQNG NGHE NGHIEP LIEN T H E HE tang ldp dfing dao nhat d Tay Nam Bfi Bp phan Igi la nh&ng ngudi CO it d i f , t h u f c tang Idp ngheo kho d nfing thfin Can cir vao day phan phoi rupng d i t binh quan nhan khau, nhom nghe e i p I cfi ma sfi 06 (lao apng ed ky thuft nfing nghifp, lam nghiep va thuy san) dugc chia thdnh ba nhdm: nhom thu nhat la nh&ng nfing dan ed mue rupng d i t binh quan nhan k h i u t u 5000m^ trd Ifn Vdi quy mfi nhan k h i u binh quan khoang ngudi/hfi, cac nfing hp ed d i f n tieh d i t nfing nghifp t u ha/hf trd len, ed the dp dyng cac mfi • ^ san x u i t tap trung, tham canh, phil hgp vdi kha ndng d i u t u va quan ly cua hf Nhdm thu hai ed mire rufng d i t binh qudn nhfn k h i u t u lOOOm^ d i n dudi 5000m^ Vdi quy md d i f n tieh ndy, san x u i t ndng nghifp ed f h l la mdt nguon thu quan trpng eua hp Nhdm thu ba ed muc d i f n tich d i t ndng nghifp binh quan nhdn k h i u dudi 1000ml Vdi quy md d i f n tich nho, nhdm h f ed nguon thu t u san x u i t nfing nghifp t h i p vd khfing thufn Igi d l phat triln san x u i t nfing nghifp Do vfy, day Id nhdm ndng hp cd nhilu kha nang chuyin d l i t u san x u i t ndng nghifp sang phi nfing nghifp, vd de rai vdo tinh trgng kho khdn ve sinh k l n l u thieu nh&ng d i l u k i f n e i n thilt eho qud trinh ehuyin doi ndy Cdeh phan logi ndi tren eung duac dp dyng rfng rai eac nghien euu t i l p theo tgi khu vyc Nam B f eua Biii T h i Cudng va Le Thanh Sang (2010), Bill T h i Cudng vd Phgm Thj Dung 21 (2016) Bill The Cudng (2015b, 2016) Le Thanh Sang va Nguyin Thj Minh Chau (2013) Le Thanh Sang (2011) Vi ed nhieu diem tuang d i n g v l nguon so lieu va dia ban nghifn cuu so vdi cac nghien cuu ndi tren nen nghien ctru eung ap dung each phan bgi doi vdi nhdm n g h i nfing nghiep Trong cac cupc khao sat ve Co ciu xa hdi van hda vi phdc Igi xa hdi t i l n hanh tgi Tay Nam Bp tgi TPHCM vd Dfing Nam Bp n g h i nghifp cua eac ca nhan duge xdc dinh dua tren tifu chuin danh nhilu thdi gian nhit d l lam efing vife dd vdng mpt nam, nfi duge ludng ey t h i b i n g cau hdi "nghi nghifp ehinh hifn eua cde vien gia dinh?" Trong nghien euu nay, n g h i nghifp cua ede t h i h f gia dinh eung duge Chung tfii xac djnh dya vao cau hdi trfn Dan vj phan tich nghien euu ndy la eac ea nhan t u 15 tuoi trd len vd hifn dang cfi vife lam (khflng tinh nh&ng ngudi lue lugng quan dpi, cflng an, vi day Id nh&ng ITnh vye ngodi dan s y vd ehilm ty If r i t it eac khao sat) Chung tfii khfing xdc djnh gidi hgn dp tuoi Idn nhit (chang hgn tdi 60 tuoi) vi ly sau: Vdi mpt so linh vuc ngoai eac ca quan efing quyin, s y nghifp nha nude, doanh nghiep nhu bufin bdn-dich vu, nfing nghifp , dp tuoi lam viec cua cdc cd nhan khdng chi dimg lai d 60 tuoi Do dfi, n l u ehf xdc djnh cde ca nhan dp tuoi t u 15-60 thi chiing ta se bo sdt mmmm&^M :'-^rV 22 mpt lugng m i u dang ke dac bift cac ITnh vuc nfing nghiep va bufin bandjeh vy, d i l u cd the dan tdi nh&ng sai Ifch khfing dang ed cac phan tich vd khdng phan anh dugc ro n h i t thye trgng ea e i u n g h i nghiep tgi cac dja ban nghifn cuu TAP CHl KHOA HQC XA HQI sd 9(217) 2016 Xet theo y f u e i u nay, cde bp s l lifu dugc su- dung nghien cuu ndy eon nhilu han che bdi khfing dii edn c u de xac dinh nghe nghiep d i u tien cua the he cai va n g h i nghifp cua thf h f cha/me cua hp cung thdi diem N g h i nghiep cua t i t ca cde t h i hf nghien cuu ehf dugc xac djnh thfing qua cau hoi "nghi nghifp chinh hien cua eac vien gia dinh?" Tuy nhien, theo 06 Thien Kinh (2009: 57) d f c dilm ciia xa hpi Viet Nam Id mpt xa hpi nfing nghiep truyen thong chfm phdt trien, eho n§n nghe hifn tai cua mft ngudi cung v i n thudng ehinh Id nghi thu nhat ciia hp Do dfi, cde bf so lieu duge SU" dung nghien ciru ndy p h i n ndo dap ung dugc cde ti§u chuan nghifn cuu v l di dpng nghi nghiep lien t h i he Tuy nhifn, cQng chinh bdi nh&ng han c h l ndy nfn cdc k i t qua nghifn cuu c i n dugc tham khao m f t each t h f n trpng Khi nghifn euu v l di dpng n g h i nghifp gi&a cac t h i hf, mpt nh&ng cau hdi quan trpng v l mat phuang phdp lufn Id chpn thdi d i l m so sdnh n g h i nghifp gi&a eac the h f nhu t h i nao? Theo Yasuda (1964; d i n theo Thien Kinh 2009: 56), vife xdc djnh dja vj xa hpi eiia mot ngudi eon trai suit cupc ddi ciia minh dugc chia Idm giai dogn chinh T& sinh d i n cd nghi nghifp d l sinh s i n g (tuc Id nghi nghifp d i u tifn) Id khoang thdi gian ma dja vj xd h f i cua ngudi cha thudng ed anh hudng tdi nghe nghifp ciia ngudi eon nhit (dja vj mugn borrowed status); giai dogn ndy, di xic djnh dja vj xd hpi eua ngudi 2.3 Xdc dinh cde the h f eon thi phai dya vdo dja vj xd hfi ciia B f n cgnh vifc xac djnh va phan logi ngudi cha Tgi thdi d i l m md ngudi ede nhdm n g h i nghifp eho hgp ly, CO nghi nghifp de sinh song la nghien c&u ve di dpng nghe thdi d i l m danh d i u sy trudng thdnh nghifp lien f h l hf, v i n d l chpn miu eiia vd tuang d l i ddc Ifp vdi nghien euu Id eon trudng hay eon thir ngudi cha cua hp Khi dd, vife xdc (ddc bift la d l i vdi trai), xdc djnh djnh dja vj cua ngudi eon trai phai dua the h f dugc bat dau t u bo/m? hay tif vdo nghi nghifp cOa md khdng cdi, Id nh&ng v i n d l h i t sue quan dya vdo dja vj xa hpi cua ngudi cha trpng vd ed anh hudng Idn tdi k i t qua n&a Nhu vfy, thdi d i l m tot nhit de nghien e&u ludng di dpng xa h f i gi&a ede t h i h f Id ngudi co vife Idm d i u Theo Yasuda (1964; d i n theo 05 tien so vdi n g h i nghifp eOa cha hp tgi Thifn Kinh 2009: 57-58), mft eting thdi d i l m gia dinh, nh&ng ngudi eon khde se ke tyc n g h i nghifp ciia cha khdc NGUYEN NGOC TOAI - Dl DONG NGHE NGHIEP LIEN THE HE Trong dd, nh&ng ngudi trudng thudng cfi xu hudng k l tyc n g h i nghifp eiia eha nhilu han so vdi nh&ng ngudi thu, dac bift la d cac nude phuang Dfing - nai ed tmyln thong quyfn thua ke thudng danh eho ngudi trai trudng Vi vgy, quyet tfjnh lua chpn nh&ng ngudi eon dua vao nghien euu di dpng xa hpi lien t h i h f Id eon trudng hay eon thu se dan tdi^ nh&ng k i t qua khdc N l u l i y m i u nghien euu chf bao gdm nh&ng ngudi trai trudng thi nhilu kha nang n g h i nghiep cua nh&ng ngudi eon it ed s y khac bift so vdi n g h i nghifp cua eha ho (hay ndi cdch khde, ty If di dfng n g h i nghifp giua eac t h i hf se t h i p va xa hpi mang tinh khfp kin) Nguge Igj, n l u l i y m i u nghien cdu chf bao gom nh&ng ngudi trai thu gia dinh thi, nhilu kha nang ty If di dpng n g h i nghifp lien f h l hf vd dp m d xa h f i eung se eao han so vdi trudng hgp thu nhit Ca hai trudng hgp tren d i u phan anh sai lech v l di dpng xd hpi gi&a cde the he B^ tranh d i l u nay, cdc nhd nghien euu thudng chpn m i u nhung ngudi trai mpt cdch n g i u nhifn, ed t h i bao gom ca nh&ng ngudi eon trai trudng vd trai thu Trong thye t l , eac nguon so lifu noi Chung tgi Vift Nam thudng khfing ehu djnh chpn mau rai vdo mot hai trydng hgp ndi tren Cdc b f s l lifu s u dyng nghien euu cung khdng du ca s d d l xac djnh nh&ng ngudi frong gia dinh Id eon trudng hay thu Do dd, vifc lya chpn nhung ngudi eon frong nghifin 23 cuu ve ea ban phan anh tinh ehit n g i u nhien va co the bao gom ca nhung ngudi trudng cung nhu nh&ng ngudi eon thu gia dinh Dae biet, boi canh tai Nam Bp, quyen thua k l thudng thupe v l ngudi eon trai iit thay vi trai trudng Do dd, phuang phap lya chpn n g i u nhien nh&ng ngudi nghien cuu se phan dnh t i t han nh&ng dac trung tgi dia ban nghien euu V i n d l tiep theo la e i n xdc djnh f h l h f b i t d i u t u bo/me hay tu cai? Cung theo Yasuda (1964; d i n theo Do Thien Kinh 2009: 58-60), thyc t l xa h f i , moi ngudi cha thudng cd nhieu han mpt ngudi eon trai Do dd, vife xac djnh t h i h f b i t d i u tu trai hay t u ngudi bo se cho ta hai buc tranh khac h i n v l di dpng nghi nghifp Cu the nhu sau: Trudng hgp thu nhat, n l u b i t d i u t u nh&ng ngudi eon trai thi r i t ed t h i d i n d i n triing lap vao ciing mpt ngudi eha cua hp Do dd, s l lugt ngudi eha dugc " g i n " vao eon trai se bj "thoi phing len" va nhieu han so ngudi cha thye t l Trudng hgp thu hai, n l u b i t d i u tu ngudi eha Idm dan vi chpn m i u d l tim thfing tin v l hp thi chung ta se trdnh duge nh&ng hgn c h l nhu trudng hgp thu n h i t da n§u Tuy nhien, each tiep can ndy cung se gay nh&ng khfi khan nhat djnh vifc q u y i t djnh chpn bao nhieu ngudi eon gia dinh (tit ca hay chpn dai dien), chpn trudng hay thu nf 'BMmiim^Mi 24 TAP CHl KHOA HQC XA HQI sd 9(217) 2016 Moi each tilp can tren dfu cd nh&ng dugc dua vao mfu phan tieh V l mft uu va nhugc diem rieng Tren thyc t l , gidi tinh, mau nghien cuu cQng s i bao nh&ng nghien euu ve di dpng nghe gom ca eon trai va eon gai (thi hf thir nghifp gi&a eac the he thudng xuit 2), tuang ung d the hf thu nhit eung phdt tu ngudi eon trai Idm dan vj chpn se bao gom ca cha va me Chiing tdi miu, bdi vi ty If k l tuc nghi nghifp cho ring, phuang phap xdc djnh miu duge xdc dinh bang phuang phdp bat nghien ciru nhu vay se phan dnh buc diu tu bo thudng eao han bit diu tu tranh di dpng lien the hf mpt cdeh eon trai'®' Trong nghifn cuu nay, sinh dpng vd da dgng han, thay vi ehf ehiing tfii eung su dung nh&ng ngudi gidi hgn hai t h i he cha-eon trai eon (bao gom ea trai vd gdi) va chpn ngau nhien mpt ngudi nhu Id xuit phdt dilm qud trinh trai dgi difn cho gig dinh chpn miu Sau tim duge nh&ng 2.4 Oo ludng di dpng xa hpi ngudi (fhl hf thu 2) dap ung Trudc day, chf so gin kit (Index of nh&ng yeu ciu nghign cuu dua (tu Association) thudng duge sir dyng 15 tuii trd Ifn vd hifn dang ed vife rpng rai viec ludng mdc dp Idm), tit ca thdng tin ciia thi hf gdn kit v l dja vj xa hpi gi&a hai thdi cha/mp (thi hf thu nhit) se duge xdc diem cy the Tuy nhien sau dd chf s6 djnh vd kit nii tuang ung vdi nh&ng ndy bfc Ip nh&ng han chl vd td sal ngudi eiia hp d l tgo thdnh cdc lech Trong nfi lyc nhdm tim cfp cha/mp-eon cdi (mau nghidn cuu) phuang phdp mdi hifu qua han, nha dimg cde phan tich eiia d l tdi xd hfi hpc Saburo Yasuda dd nghifn Thdng thudng, cde nghidn euu v l di euu phuang phdp ludng mdi dfng nghi nghifp lign thi he chf gdi thi hifn qua ehf so Yasuda (Yasuda gpn vife phfn tich qua trinh di Index dft theo tfn fing) (Do Thifn dfng gi&a eha vd trai gia Kinh 2012: 36-37)'^' dinh, ddc bift Id cdc xd hfi gia Mii tuang quan gi&a dja vj xa hpi cua tnj'dng vd phy hf, nai anh hudng eha va dja vj xd hpi eua eon trai the nghi nghifp eua ngudi eha dli vdi hifn qua bang vufing {k x k) nhu sau nghi nghifp trai Id rfi rdng han so (xem Bang 4): Ddy so nim trfn vdi nh&ng ngudi me Tuy nhifn, dudng cheo chinh ( n i l nii nkk) nghidn euu ndy, chiing tfii khfing lya fhl hifn su khfing thay doi tu dia vj xd chpn ngiu nhifn mft ngudi eon dgi hpi goc eua eha din dja vj xd hfi eua difn tu tit ea ngudi eon hifn ed trai, nh&ng eon so Igi nim gia dinh Thay vdo dfi, nh&ng ngudi ngodi dudng cheo ehinh Id thi hifn eon dugc chpn se khfing gidi hgn v l sy di dpng xd hpi s l lugng, tit ca nh&ng ngudi eon dap ung yfu eiu nghifn euu (tu 15 tuoi Xet tong the Bang (cOng ed y trd Ut) vd hifn dang cd vife lam) diu nghTa ting thi mft xd hfi), ty If di dpng thye t l (factual mobility, hay J NGUYEN NGQC TOAI - Dl OQNG NGHE NGHIEP LIEN THE HE Bang 4: Oo ludng di ddng xd hpi tir the he cha sang the he Ngudn goc tir Dja vj xa lioi ciia trai Tdng nil iiik Ua UL Hkl Tous Ul Ul iikk Ufc Ujc \ 25 ta khfing t h i quy gan dugc di dpng cua tung ea nhan vdo mpt ba nhom nhan tfi k l tren Tuy nhien, Chung ta ed t h i phan tach duge tong sfi di ddng thyc t l eua todn xa hpi thdnh hai logi: (a) di dfing cudng buc (forced mobility), hogc cdn duge gpi Id di dfng e i u true (structural mobility) d u g c tgo hai nhdm nguyen nhdn d i u tien (trong Bang 4, di dpng c i u true toan xa hpi Id s y khac cua nh&ng s l t h i hifn t i n g s u i t eiia eha vd eon d mep l l eiia bang); va (b) di dfng thuin (pure mobility), hoac edn gpi Id di ddng trao doi (exchange mobility) dugc tgo nhom nguyen nhan thu ba Yasuda 1964; din theo Do Thien Kinh 2012: 148 cdn gpi la di dpng tong the total mobility) se dugc b i l u dien bdng efing thue todn hpe sau: Ty If di dpng thye t l = (N - Enii)/N (1) Trong dd: N Id t i n g so c f p cha-eon m i u nghien euu, I j i i i Id tong so dja vj khdng thay doi t u eha sang eon trai (tue Id tong ddy s l nam trfn dudng cheo ehinh tu nil den nkk) Theo Yasuda, di dfng xa h f i dugc tgo ba nhdm nguyfn nhan: (1) s y thay doi khdch quan v l k i t e i u cua nh&ng t i n g Idp xa hpi; (2) s y thay doi v l quy mfi dan so m5i t i n g Idp xd hpi khdc (sinh, chit, nhfp eu, x u i t cu); vd (3) s y thay doi ciia ban thdn nh&ng cd nhan vifc djch ehuyen gi&a ede nhdm dja vi xd hdi khdc (di chuyin tdi cac t i n g Idp cao han, hodc tyt xuing cac t i n g Idp t h i p han) Di ddng thyc t l (di dfng t i n g f h l ) eua xa h f i duge tao bdi di d f n g cua cac cd nhfn Chung Nhu vfy: Tong so di dpng thyc t l = Tong so di dpng c i u tnic + Tong sfi di dpng thuin Cde efing thuc tinh ty If cu t h i nhu sau: Ty If di dpng e i u true = (Ejni - n.i|)/2N (2) Ty If di dpng t h u i n = {[min(ni., n.i) nii]}/N (3) Trong cdc efing thue (1), (2) vd (3), ngudi ta thudng d l cap nhilu d i n efing thirc (3) bdi vi t u efing thue nay, cd t h i tim he sd md (coefficient of ^Oc»(H0ilMli|^fl! 26 openness) eho timg nhdm dja vj xa hfii vd eho todn xa hpi He sd md eho timg nhdm aa vi xa hgi duge tinh nhu sau: yii = [min(ni n.i) - nii] / [min(ni n.i) -fii](4) He sd md cho toin xa hgi (tuc Id cho tong so eac nhdm dja vj xd hdi), cdn gpi Id chf so Yasuda tong t h i (Overall Yasuda Index), hay gpi t i t Id eh! sd Yasuda (Yasuda Index) duge tinh nhu sau: TAP CHl KHOA HQC XA HQl s69tff7) 2016 de tinh todn va so sanh giua eac dia ban nghien cuu (TPHCM Dfing Nam Bp va Tay Nam Bp), gi&a cdc khu vyc (dfi thi-ndng thfin) va gi&a ede mfi hinh di dpng khac (eha-cen trai, cha-eon gai, me -con trai va mp-con gdi), t u bdc tranh ve di dpng xd hpi lien t h i h f tai Nam Bp se da dgng va sinh dpng han KtT LUAN Cfi t h i ndi rang, cdc efing trinh nghien cuu ve di dpng xa hpi ndi chung vd di Y= Z[min(ni., n.i) - nii] / Z[min(ni., n.i) dpng nghe nghiep lien t h i h f ndi rifng tgi Vift Nam hifn cdn r i t khiem - tii] (5) ton (ea v l mat s l lugng vd tam anh Trong cdng thue (4) vd (5), fii = ni x hudng) so vdi nhung gi md cdc efing n.i /N Id gii tri ky vgng (expected value) trinh khdc trfn t h i gidi v l chu d l ndy vdi d i l u kifn gia s u cd s y dpc Ifp dd dgt dugc Thfing qua vife trinh bdy thing kf Dieu ndy cd nghTa Id, gia sir mpt s l v i n d l v l phuang phdp lufn s l quan sdt g fi nii dgt tdi gia trj ky mpt nghien euu cy f h l tgi Nam vpng, thi ta cd t h i k i t lufn ring, Bp, bdi v i i t ndy p h i n ndo chp fhly nh&ng ngudi trai d fi dd dd di nh&ng khd khdn chung doi vdi vifc ehuyin tdi dia vj xd h f i mdi mdt cdch nghifn ciru di dpng xa hpi tgi Vift ddc lip hoin toin vdi dja vi xd hfi cu Nam, dong thdi cfi the duge diing ciia cha hp Hay, dja vj xa h f i eua eha tham khao cho cde nghifn cuu khdc dd hiu nhu khdng cd inh hudng tdi v l chii d l ndy t u cde ea sd d& lifu dja vj xd hfi eua eon khac hifn Mfe dil Yasuda chf d l c f p tdi sy di Be k i t noi cdc bp so lifu tir cdc dfng gi&a hai t h i h f Id cha vd trai, nghifn cuu khdc bp so nghien euu ndy, phuang phdp lieu thong n h i t phyc vy cho cde phdn ciia Yasuda se duge m d rfng phgm vi tieh v l di dpng xa hfii c i n phai tinh tdi dp dyng d l ludng s u di dpng xd viec su- dyng cde b i l n gia trpng d l hdi lifn f h l hf gi&a cha vd mg so vdi d i l u ehfnh tuang ung eho cac b f s6 eon edi ndi chung (ca trai vd eon lifu Ben egnh dfi, eung c i n luu y tdi gdi) Cdc chf s l v l (1) Ty /# a dgng thdi d i l m khao sat ciia tung nghifn tdng thi (2) Ty li di ddng eiu trde (3) cuu ey t h i vd lya chpn cdc biln s l Ty li di ddng thuin (4) H f sd md cho k i t hgp eho phii hgp nhit Trong tOng nhdm aa vi xi hdi vd (5) H f sd nghifn cuu ndy, danh myc nghi md cho toin xi hdi se dugc dp dyng nghifp Tong cyc Thing k f ban NGUYEN NGOC TOAI - Dl DQNG NGHE NGHIEP LIEN THE HE hdnh, eiing vdi dja vi kinh tl-xa hpi md rpng la tifu chuin vd xuit phat diem de ehiing tfii tien hdnh phan logi/phan nhom vd sip xlp thu bae gi&a eac nhdm nghi tgo sy phan tang xd hpi O l phan anh buc tranh di dpng lifn t h i hf mdt each sinh dpng va da dgng han, t h i hf thu hai (con cai) se bao gom nh&ng cd nhan tu 15 tuoi trd len vd hifn dang cd vifc lam (ea nam vd n&) Sau xdc djnh dugc nh&ng ngudi miu nghien cuu (thi hf thu hai), tit ea thfing tin eua t h i he cha/me (thi hf 27 thu nhat) se dugc xdc djnh va kit nil tuang ung de tgo thdnh eac cap cha/me-con cai (miu nghien euu) dimg eac phan tieh cua d l tai Tu miu nghien euu nay, eac efing thue v l di dpng xa hpi ly thuyit eua Yasuda se dugc dp dyng d l tinh toan vd so sanh gi&a cac dia bdn nghifn cuu (TPHCM Dfing Nam Bp vd Tay Nam Bp), gi&a cde khu vye (dfi thj-nfing thfin) va giua ede md hinh di dpng khde (cha-eon trai, cha-eon gdi, me-eon trai va me-con gai) a CHC) THICH ' " Nhifm vg cdp ca sd 2016 Chu nhifm: ThS.NguyIn Ngpc Tpgi ' ^ h d n g 7/2008 Khdo sdt tgi 13 tinh thdnh Tdy Nam Bf, khgfln khd d l tdi cfp BO "Ca ciu xd hOi, I6t s6ng vi phOc Igi xi h(,i vOng TSy Nam Sd" (Chu nhiOm D l tdi- TS LO Thanh Sang) thuflc chuang trinh nghidn ciru cdp BO NhO-ng vin di ca bin sg- phit triin cOa vung TSy Nam B0 (Chii nhifm Chuang frinh: PGS.TS Biii Thi Cudng) Thdng 3-4/2010: Khdo sdt tgi TPHCM, khufln khd d l tdi cdp thdnh ph6 Ca du xS h6i I6i sing vi phOc lgi xS hOi cOa cu din TPHCM hi0n {CM nhifm d l tdi: PGS.TS Bui Thi Cudng) Thdng 4-5/2010: Khdo sdt tgi tinh DOng Nam Bf, khgfln khd chuang trinh nghiOn cuu NhOng vin di ca bin sg-phit triin bin vO-ng vung Nam 80 giai do^n 2010-2020 (Chg nhifm Chuang trinh: PGS.TS Bui Thi Cudng) •'' Viit tdt cOa Social Economic Statgs (vj thi kinh te-xd hfli)