^ ^ Cac yeu to anh hu'dng den qua trmh thoat ngheo tai khu VI/C Tay Nguyen Bdi TH| THAO' Tom tat Nghien cdu sd dung bg sd lieu diiu tra cua Tong cue Tho'ng ki vd mo hinh logit nhi phdn de lim hieu cdc ye'u id dnh hudng di'n qud trinh thodt ngheo tren phgm vi cd nudc noi chung vd khu vuc Tdy Nguyen ndi riing Ki't qud nghien cdu cho thdy, gioi dogn 2004-2016, cd ye'u tddnh hudng, bao gom: Tuoi vd gidi tinh cua chu ho; Trtnh hoc vd'n cao nhd't cda cdc thdnh vien gia dinh; Ddn tgc hgc; vd Su ho trff cua Chinh phu Dgc biet, nghiin ctiu dd tim thdy bdng chdng khac biet, la viec sd hdu ddt sdn xudt co dnh hudng tdi qud trinh thodt ngheo d khu vuc Tdy Nguyen, nhung trin phgm vi cd nUdc thi tdc dgng cua yi'u td ndy lgi khong cd y nghia vi mat thdng ke Tti khda: xoa ddi gidm ngheo, ddt sdn xudt, mo hinh logit nhi phdn ngheo ddi d Tdy Nguyen Summary This paper examines factors affecting the process of poverty reduction in Vietnam generally and in the Central Highlands region particularly over the period 2004-2016 Binary logistic model is employed and data is collected fiom General Statistics Office of Vietnam The results point out five determinants including Age and sex of household head; The highest educational level of family members, Ethnography; and Support from the government Specially, the study concludes that production land ownership has a significant effect on the process of poverty reduction in the Central Highlands region, however, the impact of this factor is not statistically significant for the whole country Keywords: poverry reduction, production land, binaiy logistic model, poverty in the Central Highlands GIOITHIEU Cung nhrfcac quo'c gia dang phat tridn khde tren the' gidi, linh trang ddi ngheo d Viet Nam da va dang la nhffng thdch thffc ddi vdi Chinh phu va chinh quyen d mdt sd dia phrfdng Kd't qua dieu tra Ueu chi chuan ngheo da chieu (giai doan 20162020) cho thd'y, so' hp ngheo tren dia ban Tdy Nguyen la 225.030 hp, chie'm ty Ie \j,l4% sd hp tren loan Vung So' hp ngheo d Ddk Lak xep thrf (sau Kon Tum) vdi 81.592 hd, chiem ly le 19,37% Tie'p den la Dak Nong 19,26%, Gia Lai 19,17% va Ldm Ddng 5,12%, Trongkhi dd, toan Vung cd tdi 90.599 hd drfde xdp vao dien cdn ngheo, Dak Lak chiem ly le eao nha't 8,28% vdi 34.884 bo, tie'p theo Gia Lai 7,3%, Kon Tum 6,36%, Dak Ndng 6,16% va Lam Dong 5,12% (Phrfdng Dinh, 2016) Cd the ndi, ngheo ddi cua ngrfdi dan chiu lac ddng cua nhidu yeu td, vdi tinh chd't va mffc dd khac Cac yeu to' co the co sff trfdng tdc Idn va tac dpng den ngheo ddi Vong luan tjuan: ngheo ddi dan tdi thu nhap tha'p, thu nhap tha'p ddn tdi dau trf cho san xua't, cho hpc hanb cua eon cai cua ngrfdi ngheo tha'p, vi dau trf tha'p ddn tdi ket qua san xud't thd'p, kdt qua hoe tap cua eon cai thd'p Vdi y nghia tren, tae gia thrfe hien de tai nghien cffu "Cac yeu td anh hrfdng den qud trinh thoat ngheo tai khu vrfc Tay Nguyen" CO sd LY THUYET VA PHUONG PHAP NGHIEN CLTU Doi ngheo la vd'n de xd hdi drfde nhieu nha kboa hpc quan tdm, nghien crfu d nhrfng thdi diem, ndi trdn "TS., Trudng D^i hoc ISoi vu Ha Noi Ngdy nhgn bdi: 15/09/2019; Ngdy phdn bi$n: 11/10/2019; Ngdy duyel ddng 18/10/20! Economy and Forecast Revie 79 khac Nghien crfu cua Cunguara B A (2008) ve xda ddi giam ngheo^d khu vrfc ndng thdn eua Mozmbique da cht nhidu yeu Id' anh hrfdng ldi viec thodt ngheo, nhrf: va'n de sd hffu da't dai, da dang hda hoat ddng ndng nghiep bang each kdt bpp ehan nudi, trdng trpt Kdt qua cung phil bdp vdi nghien effu eua Reardon (2007) thrfe hien Reardon eon nha'n manh tam quan trpng cua thu nhdp phi ndng nghiep viec giam ngheo Ke't qua nghidn cffu cua tac gia Otsuka, K va cdng srf (2007) cung da chi nhieu yeu td' cd anh hrfdng tdi viec xda ddi giam ngheo, do, nhom tac gia nhd'n manh yeu Id' vd'n, sd hffu dd'i dai vd trinh dp cua ngffdi cbu hd Nghien crfu ve giam ngheo doi d Nigeria cua Amaka, A, C (2011) da chi lac dpng cua viec s6 hffu da't dai eiing vdi cac yeu id, nhrf: vd'n tdi ehinh, gidi tinh, tudi cua ngrfdi chu hd, quy md hd gia dinb cd anh hrfdng ldi vide xda doi giam ngheo Trong nrfdc cung cd nhieu nghien cffu ve chu de xoa ddi giam ngheo va md'i quan he vdi viec sd hrfu dd't san xua't Nghien crfu cua Dong Van Dat (2017) cbo tha'y, cac ye'u td bao gdm: trinh dO hoc va'n; ty le Ihdnh vien phu thudc; dien tich dd't san xud't; thu nhap phi nong nghiep; ddn ldc hpc; tinh trang vide lam cd anh hffdng de'n xde sua't thoat ngheo Ket qua cung ttfdng ddng vdi nghien crfu cua Tran Chi Thien (2007) Ciing vdi do, nghien cffu cua Nguydn Trpng Hodi (2005) da chi cdc yd'u td: didn tich dd't canh tac, dan tdc hpe, lie'p can vay vdn la nhffng bidn sd cd y nghia tho'ng ke de giai thich nguyen nhdn va yeu td anh hrfdng tdi ngheo dot cua hd ndng dan Mo hinh nghiin cdu Nghien cffu da chpn md hinh logit de phan tieh hdi quy Trong md hinh hdi quy logit, ne'u gpi P la xac sua't de mdt bie'n cd' xay ra, thi 1-P se la xac sud't cho trang thai ngrfpe lai, phrfdng trinh hdi quy logit vdt X la cac bie'n dpc lap cd anh hrfdng den vide Irfa chon drfde dinh nghia: * P Log(-frd)=P,^P?^2,- ^tt.,+^ (0 Bang vide khao sat d hai thdi diem, dd thdi diem dau lac gia Itfa chgn td't ca cac hd gia dinh thudc dien ngheo, sau thdi gian ndm, cac hp gia dinh cd the dd thoat ngheo Y = 1, hoac chrfa thoai ngheo Y = Cd sd Iy thuye't va cae nghien cffu trrfdc cho tha'y, ed nhieu ye'u td' co anh hrfdng tdi qua trinh xda ddi giam ngheo, Vdi muc rieu tim bieu mpt so' ye'u td' anh hffdng den xda doi giam ngheo, trong tdm vao vide sd hffu da't san xua't d khu vrfc Tdy Nguyen, bien giai thich cua md hinh se bao gdm: ' Diin tich ddt sdn xudl (DT_DAT_SX): Trong md hinh bie'n se drfdc theo m- vd ky vpng cd dd'u (+) vdi xac sua'l thoat ngheo - Tudi (TUOI): Trong md hinh bie'n drfdc ky vong cd quan he nghich bten vdi bidn phu thudc - Gidi tinh (G_TINH): Md hinh diJng bien gia vdi quy ffdc nam-1 /nff =0 vd dffdc ky vpng da'u (+) 80 - Thdnh thi ndng thon i i •< 'J- ^ ^^ gia dung bie'n gia vdi quy V'i- dianh thi =l/n6ng thdn =0 va ky vpng co ddt: (+) - Ddn tgc ihieu sd(DJ^OC): Bidn D_ TOC =1 clio bie't, ngrfdi dtWc khao sat la dan tdc thieu sd vd ky vpng cd quan he nghich da'u vdi bien phu thupc - Thdnh vien phu (huge (TV_PHU_ THUOC): Nhffng hp gia dinb ddng vidn cd se cd kba nang lam kinh td td't hdn so vdi nhrfng hp ddn than Tuy nhien, ne'u la vien phu thupc, nhrf: Ire em, ngrfdi gia, ngrfdi md't kha nang lao ddng, thi se cd tac dpng ngffdc lai - Trinh dd cao nhdi cda cd nhdn ho (TD_C_NHAT): Trinh dd gdn lien vdi kha nang suy tinh, dau trf, quan hd xa bdi., Trong md hinh nay, tnnh dd drfdc theo bdng cd'p cua vidn va chon trinh dp cao nha't cua cac viSn hd, ky vpng dd'u (+) - HS tra cua cdc td chdc (HO_TR0): Trong pham vi nghien cffu nay, tac gia khao sdt anh hffdng cua yd'u to' thdng qua vide hd trd bang tien va mdi quan he cd the dong bid'n/nghich bie'n, phu thudc vao dff lieu nghidn effu Dd lieu nghiin cdu Nghien cffu sff dung bd sd lieu Khao sat mffc sd'ng hd gia dinh (VHLSS) Clia Tong cue Thdng ke ihffc hien vao cdc ndm 2012,2014 vd trpng tdm la bd VHLSS 2016 Do cdng tac xoa doi giam nghfeo can cd khoang thdi gian de ddnh gid, ddng Ihdi, vao nam 2015, chu^n ngheo cua Vi6l Nam drfdc dieu chlnh theo Chrfdng trinh Muc rieu Qudc gia Giam ngheo bdn vflng giai doan 2016-2020, ndn tdc gia da chpn khoang thdi gian 2014-2016 de phdn tich hdi quy (Bdi vii't sd dung cdch viet sd thgp phdn theo chudn quoc ti') KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU Sff dung phan mem Eview de rfdc Irfdng ham hdi quy logii vdi bidn phu thudc thoat ngheo (THOAT) mang gid tri nhi phan Nghien cffu chpn ta't ca cac ho ngheo vao thdi didm 2014 cho de'n nam 2016, hp gia dmh nao da tbodt ngheo, thl bien phu thudc nhan gi-i in bang 1, chi/a thoat ngheo thi bang n,.^ g,^ j^jjg md hinh hdi quy, \^^^^ ^ '^.j^gy ridng cho khu vrfc Tdy N a mo hinh la chay tren pham vi c :; ^^ ^^^^ Ket qua phan tieh trfo ^ j ^ ^ ^^^ bidn doe lap cbo thd'y, ca \^^ ^^^ khdng xay hien trfdng > , -^ j ^ hinh I c6 he sd McFadden R-square = 0.358 h-ong mo hinb cd hd sd la 0.099 Dieu cho Iha'y, dff lidu cua md hinh phii hdp bdn so vdi md hinh Hau hdt dd'u cua cac bidn ddc ldp phii hdp vdi gia thuyet va cd sd ly thuyd't Ve y nghia ciJa cdc hd sd, dieu kien cdc yeu td khac khdng ddi, nd'u X^^ ldng ddn vi, thi ty sd log cua hai xde sud't se thay ddi la p^ Gid tri cua ty so drfdc md ta tai edtExp(B) Bang De phdn tich tde ddng bien ciia bien giai thich X^, dat P^ la xac sud't thodt ngheo theo sd lidu quan sdt (ty sd giffa sdquan sdt eo gia tri Yi=l/tdng sd mdu quan sdt, tffdng dffdng vdi gia tri trung binh Clia bie'n ddc lap), didu kidn cdc yeu td tac khong doi, tac ddng bidn se drfdc rfdc Irfdng bang cdng thffc: dP BANG 1: KET QGA HOl QUY LOGIT NHI PHAN v"""' UZtJ '^i^! kxp(B, H§s6' Mrfc L ,„, rfdc luViiE (B) 1V nehla *^''P*"' M6 hinh 1: Khu vrfc T9v Nguvfen M6 hinh 2: Ca nrfdc TUOI -0.0566 0.042 945 -0.0139 G TINH 2.0288 0.028 7.605 0.3745 TT NT -0.9928 432'^* 0.371 OOPS D TOC -1.6962 0,032 0-183 -0,9127 0,000 0.401 TV P THUOC 0.3378 0.187^* 1-402 -0.0261 0,59 P'* T DO CN 0,6075 077 1.836 0.2997 DT DAT SX 82E-' 0.011 74E-' 0.220''* 1.000 1.000 HO TRO -0.0018 0.009 0-998 -0,0004 000 1.000 HANG SO 0,0871 0.788^^^ 1.09! 0.0871 0.788''''^ 1.091 Tong so quan sat 103 Tong so quan sal :1195 McFadden R-square: 0.358 McFadden R-square: 0.099 Mean dependent var: 2621 Mean deoendent var, 0.3598 Ghi chii NA cho bil'i bi^n lihong cd y nghia It thong ke d mdc dan tdc thieu so' thodt nghdo tha'p hdn 0.1S3 lan d khu vifcJTay Nguydn vd 0.4 lan tren pham vi ea nrfdc Anh hudng cua sd thdnh viin phu thugc: Nhffng gia dinh ddng thdnh vien se lam giam xdc sud't thodt ngheo Song, so tbanh vidn phu thupc tang cd the Nhff vdy, drfa vao ket qua hoi quy, nhdn drfdc nhieu trd ca'p cua xa hdi, nen lai lam tang md hinh cd Pi-0.2621 va md hinh xac sud't thoat ngheo, nhien he sd hdi quy khdng cd Pi=0,3598, ke't qua hdi quy drfdc giai cd y nghia ve mat thdng ke thich nhrf sau: Anh hudng trinh do: Theo ke't qua hdi quy, trinh Anh hudng tudi tdc: Ke't qua hdi quy dp giao diac nang len mot bac, tbi xac sua'l thoat ngheo cho thay, mdi quan he nghich bid'n giffa se ldng n % d khu vffe Tdy Nguydn va 6.9% tren tudi cffa chu hd va xac sua't thoat ngheo pham vi ca nrfdc Cu the, he sd hoi quy co y nghTa ve mat Anh hudng td dien tich ddt sdn xudt: Khu vffe Tdy thd'ng ke va nd'u tudi eua ngffdi chu hd Nguyen, ndi ma phdn da ngffdi ddn sd'ng bang san gia dinh tang len 1, ihi xac sua't thoat xud't nong nghidp, trdng trpt, thi viec sd hffu dd't dai ngheo se giam 1.1% ddi vdi khu vrfc Tay ed vai tro quan trpng ddi vdi xdc sua't thoat ngheo Nguyen va giam 0.32% tren pham vi ea Dieu dac biel thu vi la hdi quy tren pham vi ca nrfdc, nffdc Nhrf vdy, sffe tre, srf nhanh nhen, thi md'i quan he khong ed y nghia ve mat thd'ng ndng dpng ciia tudi tre da gop phan Iang ke The'nhrfng, ehi ridng khu vrfcTay Nguyen, thi md'i xdc^suat thoat ngheo quan he ra't chat che, he so rin cay la ra't eao, tren Anh hudng cua gidi linh: Kd't qua hdi 99% Theo do, nd'u cde yd'u to' khac khdng ddi hd quy cho thd'y md'i quan he giffa gidi tinh gia dinh d Tdy Nguyen tang l,000m^ da'l san xua't, thi va xdc sua't thoat ngheo cd y nghia ve xdc sua't giam ngheo se tang 1.7% mat thd'ng ke, Tbeo do, ne'u cbu hd la Anh hudng tit nhdng khodn hd trff: Ke't qua hdi quy nam, thl xac sud't thodt ngheo d khu vrfc cho thd'y, tdn tai md'i quan he nghich, trfc hp gia dinh Tdy Nguydn se tang len 7.6 iln va trdn nhdn drfdc nhidu tien hd trd, thi xac sud't giam ngheo pham vi ca nffdc se tang len 1.454 lan lai giam Giai thich kd't qua nay, lac gia cho rang, d Anh hudng nffi cU tni: He so hdi quy d mffc ngheo ddi nhirfig mrfc dp thi ra't khac Nhffng khu vrfc Tay Nguyen cho thd'y, nhffng hd hp nban drfde tien tai trd co the thude dien rat khd khdn sdng d ndng thdn co xac suat thoat ngheo va vi vdy khoan hd trd khong giai quyel dffdc va'n thd'p hdn, trdn pham vi ca nffdc, de thoat ngheo ma chi co the cd tac dung lam giam thi ed ke't qua ngrfdc lai Tuy nhidn, ke't kho khan cua hd ngheo Ngoai ra, cd tdm ly y lai qua khdng ed y nghia ve mat thdng ke cda cac hd gia dinh vao ede chinh sach eua Chinh phu Anh hudng cua ye'u id ddn ldc hgc: ddi vdi dien hd ddi ngheo Theo ke't qua hoi quy, Theo ket qua hoi quy, so vdi hp gia dinh dieu kien cac ye'u td khde khdng ddi, tidn bd trd md ngrfdi Kinh, xac suathd gia dinh Id ngrfdi hd ngheo nhan dffdc lang len trieu ddng/nam, thi xac = Z^-r (f- ^ dP._dP SZ dP (€^)'(1 + e'-) - e'HI dZ ' d+e'')' *i^)' T.-'-.C-^) dX, Economy and Forecast Review 81 sud't thoat ngheo se giam 34.8% d khu vffe Tay Nguyen va giam 9.21% tren pham viea nrfdc ngheo eung vdi chi dao sau sat eua cdc ca'p lanh dao, thi cdng tac giam ngheo thu drfdc ke't qua td't KET LUAN VA KHUYEN NGH! Thd hai, cdn xdy dung chinh sdch ddt dai hffp ly, ddm bdo du ddt sdn xudt cho Ke'l qua nghidn effu eho Iha'y, nhieu yeu id' anh hrfdng ho ngheo Kd't qua nghien cffu cho th^y, ldi xac sud't thoat ngheo Ve mdi cua ngrfdi chu hd gia vai trb cua sd hffu da't san xud't dd'i vdi dinh cang cao, thi xdc sud't thoat ngheo cang giam So vide thodt ngheo la ra't quan d khu vdl nff, chu hd la nam gidi se tang xac sua't thoat ngheo vrfc Tdy Nguyen De chrfdng trinh xda doi Nghien cffu chi md'i quan be ddng bid'n giffa trinh dp giam ngheo dat ke't qua td't, can xdy dffng hpc vd'n cao nhd't cua vidn hd gia dinh vdi nhffng chinh sdch da't dai hdp ly cho tffng xac sua't thodt ngheo Ve dan loc hpc, nghidn effu cho nhdm ddi Iffdng Dae bidt, khu vffe co thay, so vdi ngrfdi Kinb, ngrfdi ddn tdc thieu so' cd xac nhieu ddng bao dan tde thieu sd, ciing vdi sua't thodt ngheo thd'p hdn, Tuy nhien, ket qua hdi quy dia hinh mien nui eho thd'y, edn eo nghien khdng tim tha'y md'i quan he cd y nghTa ve mat thdng cffu ky irfdng cbo cong tac quy hoach kd giffa ndi crf tru vd sd' Ihanh vidn phu thuoc vdi xdc dd't san xua't, chinh sdch giao da't cho suat thodt ngheo Dac biet, ket qua hdi quy dd thdm mdt trfng ddi trfdng, rf-anh tinh trang dd'i drfdc lan nffa minh chffng ve vai tro ciia da't san xuat vdi xdc giao, nhtmg klidng canh ldc, hoac bi sang sua'l thoat ngheo Dieu ddc biet thu vi la d ehd, nd'u nhrf nhrfdng cho ngrfdi khde, Idm cho ehinh tren pham vi ca nrfdc, mdi quan he giffa sd hffu dd't san saeh dd't dai khong phat huy tac dung xua'l ndng nghiep vdi thoat ngheo la khdng co y ngbia Thd ba, cdn xdy dung chinh sdch ddn ve mat thdng kd, thi md'i quan he ndy d khu vffe Tay tgc mien nui phd hffp, chu trgng ddo tgo Nguyen la ra't chat che, he so'lin cay d mffc cao vd day mgnh cong tdc tuyin truyen, van Drfa tren ke't qud nghien cffu, tdc gia drfa mdt sd' dong todn ddn tham gia chUffng trinh khuyd'n nghi nham eai thien ddi sd'ng eua ngffdi ddn, gidm ngheo Nhrf kd't qua nghien effu cho tha'y, nhffng bp gia dinh dan Idc thie'u sd tang xac sua't thoat ngheo Thd nhd't, vi td chdc, cdn xdc dinh cong tdc xoa ddi deu CO xae sua't thoat ngheo tha'p hdn gidm ngheo la mdt nhi^g nhiim vu cua nhieu td Vi vdy, Chinh phii can co nhffng chffdng chdc CO lien quan Ke't qua hdi quy cbo tha'y, co nhieu trtnh tbiet thrfe, phu hdp de giup nhom yd'u td anh hrfdng tdi viec xda ddi giam ngheo, nhrf: dan dd'i trfdng Ngoai ra, kd'l qua nghien tdc, tnnh dd, tudi tdc, cdng tac tuyen truyen Chinh vi crfu cho thd'y, viec trd ed'p bdng tien mat vay, can cd srf Ianh dao, chi dao, phd'i ke't hdp cua chinh khdng giup hd dan diodt ngheo, quyen cde cd'p c6 lien quan ddi vdi cong tde giam ngheo do, nghidn effu lai chi tac dpng ciia Ndi mdt each khde, ddi ngheo Id van de xa hdi, ma mdt yen Id' ttinh dp, tudi tdc Nhrf vdy, y Ihffc td chffc ddn le se khdng the giai quye't tridl dd drfdc vffdn len, phat huy ndi life la quan trpng Ldng ghep co hieu qua cdc dff dn, chrfdng trinh giam ddi vdi cdng tac xda doi - giam ngheo.G TAI LI^U THAM KHAO _ _ _ Tdng cue Thdng ke (2014, 2016) Khdo sdi mdc sdng hg gia dinh 2014, 2016 Tdng cue Thdng kd (2017) Niin gidm Thdng ke 2016, Nxb Thd'ng ke Nguyen Trpng Hoai (2005) Nghien cdu ling dung cdc mo hinh kinh ti'luffngphdn deh cdc nhdn id tdc dgng den ngheo ddi vd de xudt xoa ddi gidm ngheo d cdc tlnh Dong Nam Bg De tdi nghien cffU ca'p Bo Tran Chi Thien (2007) Thuc trgng vd gidi phdp xoa doi gidm ngheo cho dong bdo ddn tgc vung nui cao tinh Thdi Nguyen De tai nghien cffu ca'p Bp Ddng Van Dat (2017) Nguyen Nhan anh hrfdng tdi thodt ngheo vd tai ngheo ciia hp ndng dan huyen Dong Hy, Thai Nguyen, Tgp chi Qudn tri Kinh doanh, thang 12/2017 Phrfdng Dinh (2016) Dak Lak cd t^ li hg can ngheo theo chudn mdi cao nhdt vung Tdy Nguyen, truy cap trf http://www.baodaklak.vn/channel/3481/201607/dak-lak-eo-ty-le-ho-eanngheo-theo-ehuan-moi-eao-nhal-vung-tay-nguyen-2443062/ Amaka, A.C (2011), Human capital inveslment and poverty reduction nexus in Nigeria Cunguara, B A (2008) Palhways out ofpoverty in rural Mozambique, Michigan State Umversity Otsuka, K va eac cpng srf (2007) The Role of Labor Markets and Human Capital in Poverty Reduction - Evidenve from Asia and Africa, Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), 7(1) 10 Reardon (2007) Rural Livelihood Diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa, The '-'urnal of Development Studies, 51 82 ... ldng n % d khu vffe Tdy Nguydn va 6.9% tren tudi cffa chu hd va xac sua't thoat ngheo pham vi ca nrfdc Cu the, he sd hoi quy co y nghTa ve mat Anh hudng td dien tich ddt sdn xudt: Khu vffe Tdy... giam 34.8% d khu vffe Tay Nguyen va giam 9.21% tren pham viea nrfdc ngheo eung vdi chi dao sau sat eua cdc ca'p lanh dao, thi cdng tac giam ngheo thu drfdc ke't qua td't KET LUAN VA KHUYEN NGH!... in bang 1, chi/a thoat ngheo thi bang n,.^ g,^ j^jjg md hinh hdi quy, ^^^^ ^ '^.j^gy ridng cho khu vrfc Tdy N a mo hinh la chay tren pham vi c :; ^^ ^^^^ Ket qua phan tieh trfo ^ j ^ ^ ^^^ bidn