Mức độ tự do hóa tài khoản vốn ở việt nam đánh giá theo nhóm chỉ số dựa trên cơ sở pháp lý và nhóm chỉ số dòng vốn thực tế

Mure ty hoa tai khoan vdn d Viet Nam: Danh gia theo nhom chF so di/a tren ctf sd phap ly va nhom chi so dong von thi/c te LCfdNG THI THO HANG' Tom tat Bdi vie't ddnh gid mffc dg iff hoa tdi khodn vdn d Viet Nam theo nhom chi sd dffa trin ca sd phdp ly vd nhom chi sdddng vdn thUc te dSng thdi so sdnh vdi cdc qudc gia khu vUc nhu: Thai Lan, Malaysia vd Trung Qudc Tff dd dua mgt sd khuyen nghi chinh sdch ddi vdi lg trinh tudo hoa tdi khodn vdn d Viet Nam nhdm thdc ddy nhffng tdc dgng tich cUc ddi vdi nen kinh te, dong thdi ddm bdo an todn cho he thdng tdi chinh nudc Ttf khda: tit hoa tdi khodn vo'n, chi so dffa tren ca sd phdp ly ddng vdn thuc te Summary This article evaluates the capital account liberalization in terms of legal indices and indices based on actual captital flows in Vietnam and compares with other countries in the region such as Thailand Malaysia and China Afterwards, some recommendations on the roadmap for capital account liberalization in Vietnam are made to bring positive impacts on the economy and ensure the safety of national financial system Keywords: liberalization, capital account, legalindices, actual capital flows Gldi THIEU Xud't phdt tff nhffng ehi phi cua kidm soat vd'n dd'i vdi nen kinh td', ciing vdi xu hrfdng phat trien ta't ye'u eiia thdi ky hpi nhdp, cdc qudc gia dan dan xda bd kiem sodt ddi vdi srf di ehuye'n cua eae ddng vdn vd dffa nen kinh le' vdo trang thai trf hda tai khoan vd'n mpt phan hoae hodn toan Ne'u nhrf kidm soat vo'n la vide mpt qude gia su" dung cde bidn phap kiera soat nham gidi han hoac dieu chinh cde ddng vd'n vdo hoac khdi lanh thd qud'c gia, Ihi trf hda tai khoan vo'n drfdc dinh nghia la viee xda bo cac han chd'dd'i vdi cac dong vd'n ndy Vdi y nghia quan trgng ciia Iff hda tdi khoan vd'n dd'i vdi v^n dd an todn lai chinh qud'c gia, tde gia da lffa chgn chii de ve danh gid mffc dp Iff hda ldi khodn vdn d Vidl Nam drfa trdn nhdm chi so' dd la; nhdm ehi so' drfa tren cd sd phdp IJ va nhdm chi sd dong vdn thrfc id' c a sd LY THUYET VA PHl/ONG PHAP NGHIEN CLfU Cd sd ly thuye't Theo Henry (2007), trf hda ldi khoan vo'n Id quye't dinh cua Chinh phii mpt qud'c gia viec ehuydn doi tff cd chd' tdi khoan vdn ddng tdi mpt he tho'ng tdi khoan vd'n md, ddng von cd the drfdc trf hodc vdo lanh thd qud'c gia Cung drfa khai nidm vd trf hda tdi khoan vd'n, Prasad va Rajan (2008) cho rang trf hda tai khoan vdn nghia Id viee dd bd nhffng han ehe' dd'i vdi ddng vd'n vao vd cho phep eae nha dau trf nrfdc dau trf trf vao tai san nrfdc ngoai Nhrf vay, trf hda tai khoan vd'n cd the hie'u Id quye't dinh eiia Chinh phii mgt qud'c gia viee dd bo nhffng han che do'i vdi cdc giao dich trdn ldi khoan vd'n can can loan qud'c te' Dd danh gia mffc tff hda tai khoan vo'n cua cac qud'c gia, cac nha nghien cffu kinh td'da Irfdng hda hai nhdm chi so Irfdng: Thff nhd't, nhdm chi sd drfa trdn ed sd phdp ly; Thff hai, nhdm ehi sdddng vd'n thrfc te' 'TS., Vien Ngan hang - Tai chinh, Trrfdng Dai hgc Kinh te Quoc dan Ngdy nhdn bdt: 17/6/2020; Ngdy phdn bifn: 25/6/2020; Ngdy duyel ddng: 28/6/2020 Economy and Forecast Review | y BANG 1; CHi s o KAOPEN CUA CAC QUC C GIA GIAI DO*M 2005-2018 Tny*: 1992 1993-2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0.1827 0.1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0.4164 0,4164 0.4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,4453 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,6949 0,4164 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0,4164 0.4161 0.4164 0,1657 0.4164 0,1657 0.165'^ 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0.1657 0,1657 0,1657 0.1657 Tn«it«iB 0.1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 0.1657 0.1657 0,1657 0,1657 0,1657 Nhdm chisddtJta tren casd phdp ly Nhdm chi sd drfa tren cd sd phdp ly drfdc tinh loan trdn ed s6 edc quy dinh bdo eao hang nam ve kiem sodt ngoai hd'i (Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions - AREAER) Clia IMF Bdo cdo ndy dtfdc xua'l ban hdng ndm dd CO npi dung ve van de kiem sodt vo'n eiia cac qud'c gia la Ihanh vidn eiia IMF, dieu drfdc thd hien d dong cd ddu dd "Han chd' todn doi vdi giao dich vd'n" Theo do, chi so'drfdc sff dung de Irfdng mffc dp trf hoa lai khoan vdn, Id: ehi sd Kaopen vd chi so' Schindler md rpng Cu the nhrf sau: Chi sd Kaopen Chi sd Kaopen dffdc Chinn \a Iio xdy dffng lan dau tien vao ndm 2002 (Chmn va Ito, 2002), sau dd tid'p tuc phdi trid'n va cap nhat de'n nam 2018 tren website Chinn and Ito Kaopen dffde xac dinh dffa trdn bid'n gia bao cdo hdng ndm ve kiem sodt ngoai hoi cua IMF (AREAER) bao gdm: kl (phan dnh sff hien hffu cua ehe dp da ly gid); k2 (phan dnh han chd'trong giao dich vang lai); k3 (phan anh han che ffong giao dich vd'n) va k4 (phan dnh yeu cau phai bdn lai ngoai te tff ngudn thu xud't khau) Cdc qudc gia W hda hoan loan lai khoan vo'n se co gid tri Kaopen bang 1, cde nffdc kiem soat tai khoan vdn hoan loan ed gia in Kaopen bdng Chi sd Kaopen dffdc tinh toan dffa tren ca bien, thay vi chi sff dung bien k3 \ i theo cac tdc gia, thi kl, k2 k4 deu cd lac dpng tdi k3 Cac qudc gia cd the han ehe dong vdn bang each han chej:dc giao dich iren tdi khoan vang lai hoae dp dung che dp da ty gid va nhflng yeu eau ke'l hdi ddi \d\ cdc ngudn thu Iff xua'l khau Chi sd Schindler md rgng Chi sd kid'm sodt vd'n dtfde \ a \ dffng bdi Schindler (2{X)9), sau drfdc Fernandez va cpng srf (2016) phat trien Chi sd cung drfa trdn Bao eao AREAER cua IMF Bp sd Ueu cua Schindler (2009) cho diem ddi vdi 20 mrfc dp kiem soat vo'n (bao gdm ca \ on vao \ a \ on ra) cua 91 qudc gia n-ong giai doan 1995-2005 drfa tren npi dung, han chd ddi \di giao dich trdi phieu han che ddi vdi giao dieh cd phieu ihi trrfdng tien te dau trf tap the, tin dung tai chinh, dau trf trtfc tiep nrfdc ngoai (FDI) Nam 2015 chi sd drfdc phat trien va md rpng ca ve npi dung, sd qudc gia vd khoang thdi gian Theo dd, ngi dung ddnh gia dffdc bd sung bao gdm: cac cong cu phdi sinh, tin dung thrfdng mai bao lanh tai ehinh, bat dpng san Chi sd' Schindler md rgng cd gid tri nY 0-1 dd thd' hien qudc gia khong kiem soat ddi vdi cac giao dich vd'n; the" hien qud'e gia kiem soat hoan loan do'i vdi cac giao dieh ydn Nhom chi so dong von thffc te Chi sddo Irfdng ddng \ dn thrfc Id'dffdc sff dung phd bie'n la chi sd Tdng dong von vao vd khdi lanh tho qudc gia Tong ddng vdn vao va khdi ldnh tho qudc gia bao gdm von dau iff trffc tie'p nffde ngoai, vd'n dau ttf gian tie'p nrfdc ngoai va cde loai vo'n khac Theo Lane va MilesiFerreni (2001), long ddng vdn vao va khoi mpt qudc gia dffde Irfdng bdng long lai san nrfdc ngodi va khoan phdi tra nrfdc ngoai ciia quo'c gia dd so vdi GDP (ehi so' FAL) Trong dd, Idi san nrfde ngodi bao gdm: Dau trf trtfc de'p (direct investment asseis), dau ttf danh muc/ gian tie'p (portfolio investment assets), dau trf khdc (other investment assets) \a tai san dtf trff (reserve assets) Khoan phai tra nffdc ngoai bao gdm: Dau Iff trffc tiep (direct invesiment liabilities), dau tff danh muc/gidn tie'p (portfolio investment liabilities), dau itf khae (other invesiment liabilities) Sd dl, ehi sd ldng ddng \ on vao \ a dffdc sff dung de Irfdng mffc dp trf hda tai khoan vdn bdi \i dp md tai khoan vdn phai bao gdm cd \iec ngrfdi khong crf tni nam giff tai san d nffdc va ngffdi crf trii nrfde nam giff tdi san d nrfdc ngoai Phtfiftig pliap nghien ctfu De ed dff lieu ve nhdm chi so'drfa tren cd sd phdp 1\ bai vie't sff dung so lieu \ e chi so' Kaopen tren website ciia Chinn vd Ito giai doan Iff 2005-2018 \a so' hdu ve chi sd Schindler md rpng tff nghien cffu ciia Femdndez \a cdng srf (2016) giai doan 2005-2013 Ben canh dd de cd dff hdu ddi vdi nhdm chi sd dong vdn thffc te' tdc gia da linh todn dffa trdn sd lieu eiia IMF vd WB giai doan 2005-2018 KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU Danh gia mtfc dp ttf hda tai khoan vd'n cua Vi0t Nam dtfa trdn nhom chi so'ctf sd phap ly Chi so'Kaopen Vidl Nam bat dau md cffa thi Irffdng vdn tff ndm 1993 Trong giai doan 20052007, Kaopen khdng ddi d mrfc 0,1657 thd hidn Iff hda tdi khodn vo'n d mffe did'p (Bdng 1) Nam 2007 chffng kie'n mpt bffdc ngoat ldn do'i vdi nen kinh te' Vidt Nam nffdc ta gia nhdp To chffc Thffdng mai The gidi (WTO), tff ddy nhffng cam kd't cua Viet Nam ddi vdi viee md effa thi trffdng vdn cdng cao hdn Ve mat phdp ly, Viet Nam da ndi long hdn cac quy dinh vd FDI, dau tff gidn tie'p nrfdc ngodi, vay nd nrfdc ngoai va dau trf nrfdc ngoai FDI da drfdc trf hda d mffc rd't eao, hidn chi bi han ehd'd rapt sP' linh vffc cam hodc han che dau trf Ddi vdi dau tff danh mue nffdc ngoai, tff ndm 2009, cdc td chffc, ed nhan nffdc ngoai dffdc ndm giff toi da 49% tdng sd'cd phid'u cua cong ty cd phan dai chiing (khdng phdn bidt Id cdng ty nidm yd't hay chffa niem yd't), tdi da 49% tdng sd chffng chi quy dau tff cua mpt quy dau trf chffng khoan dai chiing, tdi da 49% vdn dieu Id Clia mgi cong ty dau trf chffng khodn dai chiing Ddc bidl, tff thdng 9/2015, ly Id sd hffu cua nha dau tff nffdc ngoai cdng ty dai ehung do'i vdi nganh nghe d^u tff kinh doanh khdng cd didu kidn dffdc ndng len thdnh 100% Ddi vdi vay nd nrfdc ngodi, chinh saeh cua Nhd nffdc dd'i vdi cdc khoan vay nffdc ngodi da dffde ndi long Dieu dffdc the' hidn qua quy dinh ciia Nha nrfdc dd'i vdi khodn vay ciia doanh nghiep Theo dd, doanh nghiep drfdc phep trf vay, trf trd, trf chiu trach nhiem Tuy nhidn, vay nd nrfdc ngodi vdn phai tudn thu cdc quy dinh vd han mrfc va vide dang ky cac khoan vay de trdnh vay np nffdc ngoai qud mffe, vffdl qud lam kid'm sodl Do'i vdi FDI, quy dinh ciia phdp ludt, ddc biet la Ludt Dau tff (nam 2005, ndm 2014) da thd' hien ro ehii trffdng eua Nha nrfdc viec khuyd'n khich hoat dpng dau trf trrfc tid'p nffdc ngoai Bdn canh dd, Viet Nam cung da thffc hien cam kd't khdng sff dung cde bidn phdp hanh chinh dd dieu hanh tidn Id, cd bidn phdp kd'l hdi ngoai te Giao dich vang Iai cua Viet Nam eung Economy Jiid Forecasi Review BANG 2: CHI SO SCHINDLER MCi RQNG CAC Qa6C GIA GIAI DOAN 2005-2013 Nam Vlf t Nam Ka Kai Thai Lan Kao Ka Kai Kao Troog Onflc Malaysia Ka Kai K>0 Ka Kai Kao 2005 0,93 0,85 1,00 0,83 0,75 0,90 0,83 0.80 0,85 1,00 1.00 1,00 2006 0,93 0,85 1,00 0,83 0,75 0,90 0,80 0,75 0,85 1,00 1,00 1,00 2007 0,93 0,85 1,00 0,83 0,75 0,90 0,75 0,65 0,85 1,00 1,00 1,00 2008 0,95 0,90 1,00 0,78 0,65 0,90 0,85 0,75 0,95 1,00 1,00 1,00 2009 0,90 0,90 0,90 0,78 0,65 0,90 0,80 0,65 0,95 1,00 1,00 1,00 2010 0,90 0,90 0,90 0,75 0,60 0,90 0,80 0,65 0,95 1,00 1,00 1,00 2011 0,93 0,95 0,90 0,75 0,60 0,90 0,75 0,65 0,85 1,00 1,00 1,00 2012 0,88 0,85 0,90 0,83 0,75 0,90 0,75 0,65 0,85 1.00 1,00 1,00 2013 0,88 0,85 0,90 0,73 0,70 0,75 0,88 0,80 0,95 0,90 0,90 0,90 da dffdc tff hda ke trf Phdp ldnh ngoai hd'i (nam 2005) ed hidu lffc Vdi nhffng thay ddi nhff trdn quan ly tai khoan vd'n, tdi khoan vang lai va ydu cau kd't hd'i ngoai te, chi sd Kaopen cua Viet Nam da tdng len dang ke Iff mffc 0,1657 (nam 2007) len 0,4164 nam 2008 vd chi sd ndy drfde tri eho ldi Con so' 0,4164 eho thd'y, Viet Nam dang trf hoa tai khoan vdn d mffc trung binh (Bang 1) So sdnh vdi mpt sd qudc gia khu vrfe, ed thd' tha'y, giai doan 2005-2008, Thai Lan va Malaysia cd mffc dp Iff hda tai khoan vdn cao hdn so vdi Vidt Nam song giai doan 2009-2014, chi so' Kaopen d hai qudc gia giam xudng mffc 0,1657 Trong bdo cdo AREAER ciia IMF nam 2014 co the' thay, ca ba quoe gia Viet Nam, Thai Lan vd Malaysia deu khdng tri che dP da ty gid, khong yeu cau ke't hd'i ngoai Id, van thrfc hidn cdc bidn phdp kidm sodl ddi vdi tdi khoan vd'n Song chi cd Viet Nam cho phdp trf hda hodn toan do'i vdi giao dich vdng lai Thai Lan van tie'p luc tri chi sd Kaopen d mffc 0,1657 cho dd'n nam 2018, trf nam 2015, Malaysia cho phep trf hda ddi vdi cac giao dich vdng lai va vay chi sd Kaopen tang tff 0,1657 ldn dd'n 0,4164 Iff nara 2015 de'n Dd'i vdi Trung Qud'c, mdc dii day Id nen kinh te' ldn Ihff hai trdn the' gidi, song thi trffdng vo'n dffdc md cffa d mffc dp rat thap CQng gio'ng nhff Viet Nam, trrfdc nam 1992, Trung Quo'c hoan loan kiem soat vd'n, sau dd cac quy dinh ddi vdi ddng vd'n ra/vao lanh thd dan drfdc ndi long, nhrfng khdng dang ke Chi so' Kaopen d mffc 0,1657 sud't giai doan Iff Trung Qud'c bat dau md effa thi trffdng vd'n (nam 1993) cho tdi nam 2013 Nhff vay, ve mat phap ly, theo tinh todn cua Chinn vd Ito (2002) mffc dp tff hda tai khoan vo'n d Viet Nam giai doan gan day ngang bang vdi Malaysia va cao hdn so vdi mpt so nffde, la: Thdi Lan vd Trung Qude Chi so'Schindler md rdng Mffc dp Iff hda tai khoan vd'n d Viet Nam giai doan 2005-2013 thd'p hdn so vdi Thdi Lan, Malaysia va cao hdn so vdi Trung Qudc (Bang 2) 21 BIEG DO: TONG T A I SAN VA KHOAN PHAI TRA NdCiC NGOAl/GDP Mguon Tinh Ddi vdi Vidt Nam, ve cd bdn, chi sd' Schindler md rpng CO xu hffdng giam xud'ng nghTa la mffc dp iff hda tdi khodn vdn cd xu hrfdng tang len Trong dd, co mpi sd mdc Ihdi diem ddng Irfu y nhrf sau: (I) Ndm 2008, mffc dp kiem sodl do'i vdi ddng vd'n vao tang tff 0,85 ldn 0,9 dochisd'de_siartangtrf01dn (Nha nrfdc han che"^ vide ban va phat hanh eae cPng eu phai sinh cua ngrfdi crf tni Viet Nam nrfdc ngodi); (2) Nam 2009, mrfc dp kiera sodt ddng vd'n giam iff xudng 0,9 chi so' re_slbn gidm xud'ng (Ngrfdi khdng crf trii dffde ban bd't dgng san d Viet Nara); (3) Nam 2011, mffc dp kiem soat dong vdn vao lang trf 0,9 ldn 0,95 chi sd'bo_plbn tang tff ldn (Han chd'ngrfdi khdng crf Ini mua Irdi phid'u d Vidl Nam); (4) Ndm 2012, mffc dp kidm sodt ddng vdn vao giam tff 0,95 xudng 0,85 chi sd gsi gidm tff xuong (Xda bd han che' ddi vdi ddng vdn nrfdc ngodi vao drfdi hinh thffc bao dani, bao lanh) Nhff vay, chi sd' phdp ly Kaopen va Schindler md rpng ddu cho thd'y, Chinh phu Viet Nam dang cang ndi long quy dinh han che'do'i vdi cdc ddng vdn di ra/di vao lanh thd quo'c gia Hay ndi each khde, mffc tff hda lai khoan vd'n d Viet Nam trdn ed sd phdp 1^ dang cd xu hffdng tdng ldn Danh gia mffc dp ttf hda tai khoan vd'n cua Vi^t Nam dtfa tren nhom chi so'dong vd'n thtfc td' Giai doan 2005-2007, mac dii Kaopen giff nguyen khdng dd'i d mffc 0,1657 song chi sddong vo'n thrfc te (FAL) ed xu hrfdng tang qua cac nam vd dai mffe cao nha't vdo nam 2007 (Bid'u dd) Sff ldng len ddt bid'n vao ndm 2007 chu yd'u xud't phat tff srf tang len manh rae Clia eae dong vo'n vdo dac bidt la FDI va dau trf danh mue Trong giai doan ndy cd srf tdng ldn ciia mffc dp trf hda tdi khodn vo'n theo chi sd Schindler md rpng song chi didn hai nam 2003-2004 Giai doan 2008-2009, mac dii Kaopen lang manh riy0,1657 len mffc 0,4164, ddng thdi chi sd Schindler met rpng ciing the hidn mffc tff hda tang ldn (chi so'giam Iff 0,95 xudng 0,90) song ehi sd FAL cua Viet Nam lai giam manh (Bang va Bang 2) Dieu la anh hffdng tff khiing hoang tdi ehinh loan cau khie'n cho ca dong vd'n vdo va khoi ndn kinh tddeu giam xuong Giai doan 2009-2018 cd thd' quan sat dia'y srf van dgng khong dn dinh cua chi sd FAL tai Vidl Nam Tuy 22 nhidn, bidn dp dao dpng ciia chi so' FAL lai Vidt Nam v^n tha'p hdn nhieu so vdi Malaysia vd Thai Lan Dde bidt, long • ldi san va khoan phai tra nrfdc ngoai tai Viet Nam cao nha't so vdi Malaysia, Thai Lan vd Trung Qudc giai doan 2015-2018 Malaysia vd Thdi Lan la hai qudc gia cd chi sd FAL bie'n dpng manh nha't qua ede nam & Malaysia, nam 2(K)6 va giai doan 2009-2015, chi sd FAL mffc cao nhd'l, dac bidt nam 2007, FAL cao nhd'l d mffc 0,284 Tuy nhidn, Malaysia cung Id nffdc (bao gdra Malaysia, Thdi Lan, Philippine vd Han Qudc) chiu anh hffdng ndng ne nha't cupc khiing hoang tai chinh loan cau 2008-2009 Nam 2008, tdng tdi san vd khoan phai h-a nrfdc ngodi/GDP eua Malaysia xudng tdi mffe-0,0191 Tffdng tff Malaysia, Thai Lan cung Id nrfde cd chi so' ddng vdn thffc te' bid'n dpng manh Bieu dd chi dinh cao nhat cua chi sd FAL rdi vdo cde ndm 2006, 2010, 2012 vd 2017, ddng thdi c6 day thd'p nha't rdi vao cac nam 2008, 20II vd 2015 Trong dd ndm 2008, chi sd FAL Id tha'p nhat vd eung Id chi so' ihd^p nha't loan bp khu vffe ASEAN, d raffc-0,0071 Trung Qudc Id qud'c gia cd nen kinh te' ldn thff hai tren the gidi song mffc dp md effa ddi vdi thi irffdng vdn d mffc rat tha'p Dieu the hidn ca chi so' phdp ly Kaopen, Schindler md rpng vd chi sd FAL Chi sd FAL d mffc ra'l dn dinh, khdng chiu dnh hrfdng bdi linh hinh chung cua nen kinh te'the gidi KET LUAN Ddnh gid mffc dp Iff hda tdi khoan vd'n d Viet Nam dffa tren nhdm chi sd cd sd phdp ly va nhdmchi sdddng vd'n thffe te cho thd'y: Xel tren cd sd phdp ly, Viet Nara dang ttirfe hien Iff hda lai khoan vdn vdi mffc dp tang dan; Xet theo dong vdn thffc te, chi sd tdng tai san vd khodn phdi h-a nffde ngoai/GDP cua Vidl Nam van dpng khdng dn dinh ca giai doan, nhffng cao hdn so vdi Malaysia, Thdi Lan va Trung Qude, dac bidt giai doan 2015-2018 Dieu dd cho thay vide ndi ldng han che'ddi vdi cdc ddng vdn di ra/di vdo ciia Chinh phii Viet Nam chi la mgt so' cde nguydn nhdn dan tdi sff bie'n dpng ciia cdc dong vdn di ra/di vdo lanh thd Viet Nam giai doan 2005-2018 Vao nhffng thdi ky dac biet, nen kinh td'khu vrfc hay todn cau phai do'i mat vdi cde eupc khiing hoang tai chinh lien td, cde ddng vdn di ra/di vao lanh thd qude gia se ed the bien dgng ngrfdc ehieu vdi chi sd phdp ly Srf bie'n dpng manh me Ciia ddng chu ehuyen vd'n qudc Id' ed the gay nhffng bd't dn dd'i vdi khu vrfe tdi chinh nrfdc Chinh vi vay, Viet Nam cdn xdy dffng mpt IP trinh trf hda tai khoan vdn phu hdp de han che' nhflng tac dgng tidu cffc sff ba't dn dinh cua dong chu chuyd'n vp'n qud'c td' gdy ra, IMF dffa Id tnnh giai doan iff hda tai khodn vd'n dpi vdi cac qud'c gia nhff sau: Giai doan 1: Trf hda dau tff trrfc tid'p nrfdc ngodi; Giai doan 2: Trf hda dau Irf trrfc tiep nrfdc ngodi va eae ddng vd'n ddi han khdc, ddng thdi han che dong ngan han; Giai doan 3: Trf hda hoan todn tdi khoan vd'n (Bang 3) Do Irfpng mffc dp trf hda tai khoan vdn d Viet Nam theo nhdm chi sd' cd sd phdp ly cho tha'y, Vidt Nara dang d giai doan theo lg trinh tff hda tai khoan vo'n eiia IMF Theo do, de' thrfc hidn iff hda dau iff trffc tie'p ntfdc ngoai vd cae ddng vdn dai han khdc (vp'n ngan han vdn bi kiem sodt), edc qud'c gia phai TALLIEU THAM KHA.0 BANG 3: LQ TRINH T^ DO HOA TAI KHOAN VON THEO QOAN DIEM CUA IMF Ttr hoa d6ng von FDI va gidi han dong von (vao) ngSn han TiT hoa dau tu" infc tiep niTcic ngoai va cac dong von d&i han khac, kiem soat von ng^n han TiTdohdahoantoiin Cai caL-h khuon kh^ phap lual tai chinh Tang cu'dng he thong ke toan va thong ke Tang cu'dng quan ly khoan toan he ihong va cdc hoat d6ng ve tien te va ngoai hoi co lien quan Cai each cac quy dinh ve than trong, giam sat va quan ly rui ro Tdi cau tnic khu vu'c tai chinh va doanh nghi6p Phat trien thj tru'dng von ke ca quy hifu tri Giai doan | Giai doan | hoan cai each the che', hd Ihd'ng ke todn vd thdng kd, quan ly khodn cua toan hd thd'ng tdi chinh Do vdy, giai doan hidn tai, Viet Nam nen tap trung vao cai cdeh he tho'ng tai chinh, dd tdp trung vao he Ihd'ng ngan hang thrfdng mai, nang cao ehat Irfdng the chd', hodn thidn cac chinh sdch kinh td' vi md, thay vi tao dot phd Irong vide nang cao mffe dp Iff hda tdi khodn vd'n Dieu giup Vidt Nam dara bao an toan cho he thd'ng tdi chinh, cung nhrf cd the thu hiit dffdc cac dong vdn dau trf nrfdc ngodi co chat Irfdng eao didu kidn hgi nhap cang sdu va rgng vao kinh td'khu vffe vd thd'gidi.• _ _ Chinn, Menzie D and Hiro Ito (2002) Capital account liberalization, institutions and financial development: cross country evidence National Bureau of Economic Research, 8967 Chinn, Menzie D and Hiro Ito (2005-2018) The Chinn-Ito Index, - A de jure measure of fmancial openness, access to http://web.pdx.edu/~ito/Chinn-Ito_websile.htnt Edison, H.J., Klein, M., Ricci, L and Slok, T (2002) Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis, IMF Working Paper, WP/02/120 Fernandez, A., Klein, M W., Rebueei, A., Schindler, M and Uribe, M (2016) Capital control measures: A new dataset, IMF Economic Review, 64(3), 548-574 Henry, Peter Blair (2007) Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation, Journal of Economic Literature XLV, 887-935 Ishii, S., Habermeier, K F and Canales-Kriljenko, J I (2002) Capital accountliberalization and financial sector stability International Monetary Fund, 211 IMF (2005-2018) IMF Data, access lo imf.org Kraay, A (1998) In search of the Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization Kose, M A., Prasad, E., Rogoff, K and Wei, S J (2009) Financial globalization: A reappraisal, IMF Staff Papers, 56(1), 8-62 10 Lane, P R., & Milesi-Ferretti, G M (2001) The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign asseis and liabilities for industrial and developmg countries Journal of international Economics, 55(2), 263-294 11 Prasad E S and Rajan R.G (2008) A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization Discussion Paper Series IZA DP, 3475 12 Schindler M (2009) Measuring financial integration: a new data set, IMF Staff Papers, 56(1), 222-238 13 World Bank (2005-2018) Data, access to the data.worldbank.org Economy and Forecasi Review 23 Giai doan ... (Bang 3) Do Irfpng mffc dp trf hda tai khoan vdn d Viet Nam theo nhdm chi sd' cd sd phdp ly cho tha'y, Vidt Nara dang d giai doan theo lg trinh tff hda tai khoan vo'n eiia IMF Theo do, de' thrfc... vdi cdc ddng vdn di ra/di vdo ciia Chinh phii Viet Nam chi la mgt so' cde nguydn nhdn dan tdi sff bie'n dpng ciia cdc dong vdn di ra/di vdo lanh thd Viet Nam giai doan 2005-2018 Vao nhffng thdi... Vi^t Nam dtfa tren nhom chi so'dong vd'n thtfc td' Giai doan 2005-2007, mac dii Kaopen giff nguyen khdng dd'i d mffc 0,1657 song chi sddong vo'n thrfc te (FAL) ed xu hrfdng tang qua cac nam vd