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LY LUAN VA THl/C TIIN CHINH TRI NUdC NGOAI CAC MAC VAN HOAX Wi\N HIKX DAI i.^if' !!.!• un J GS LEO PANTTCff'' LTS: Cupc khung hodng kinh te todn cdu hien nay dang khien nhieu ngudi nghi tdi Cdc Mdc, triet gia, nhd kinh te vT dgi the ky XLX, tdc gid bp sdch do so Tu bdn noi tieng, chica dung nhieu lugn diem thich hap dung de phdn tich mpi cupc khung hodng kinh te cua chu nghia tu bdn. Vita qua, Tgp chi Foreign Policy (Chinh sdch doi ngogi) cua My, so 5-6 ndm 2009 co ddng bdi viet cua GS Leo Panitch vdi tieu de Mdc van hoan todn hien dgi. Dudi day chiing toi xin gidi thieu npi dung bdi ndy. Cdc ghi chu trong ngodc dan vd ddu de phu Id ciia ngudi dich. Di trir&c thai dgi Khiing hoang kinh te dang khien ngudi ta trd lai quan tam den Cac Mac. Lugng tieu thu tren toan cau bg sach Tu bdn tang vgt; rieng mdt nha xuit ban d Diic nam 2008 da ban dugc hang nghin cudn, trong khi trudc dd 1 nam, nam 2007 chi ban dugc hon 100 cudn. Dieu dd ehimg td cudc khiing hoang quy md rdng va cd siic cdng pha ldn nay da khien chit nghTa tu ban toan eau va cac chinh khach cap cao cua nd roi vao mdt cude khimg hoang tu tudng cd tinh he thdng. *** Nha nghien ciju n6i tieng \k mon chinh tri hQC, Khoa Kinh tl chinh trj, trudng Dai hpc T6ng hap York tai Toronto (Canada), bien tap vien t6 Nien gidm Socialist Register. Khdng phai ngau nhien khi niem tin vao tu tudng ehfnh thdng ctia chti nghia ty do mdi da tan vo, thi ngudi ta lai quan tam tim hieu va nghien cuu hpc thuyet Mac. Trudc het, Mac da di trudc thdi dai ciia minh rat xa, dng da dy doan dupc qua trinh toan eau hda ciia chii nghTa tu ban. Mac da dy bao chinh xac mpt sd yeu td quan trpng gay ra cudc khung hoang tai chfnh hien nay, dd la mau thuan cd hun cua cai the gidi dugc tao nen bdi cac thj trudng canh tranh nhau, nen san xuat hang hda va sy dau ca tai chinh tien te. Mac hoan tat tac pham ndi tieng nhat cua minh vao thdi ky khi cdc cupc each mang Phap va My mdi ket thiic chua day 78 LY LUAN CHINH TRI 9 - 2009 mdt tram nam, nhung dng da dy kiln trudc dugc sy chao dao xay ra sau dd hon mdt the ky rudi cua cdng ty AIG va Bear Steams \ Mae nhin thay rat rd cai dng gpi la "tac dung each mang nhit" ma giai cip tu san phat huy dugc trong ljch sir loai ngudi - dd la vai trd cua lop ngudi tien than ciia cac chit ngan hang va giam doc cdng ty d Phd Wall hien nay. Diing nhu Mac vilt trong Tuyen ngon cua Ddng Cpng sdn: "Giai cap tu san khdng thi tdn tai nlu nd khdng thudng xuyen thay ddi can ban cdng cu san xuat va tir dd thay ddi can ban quan he san xuat cimg vdi toan bd mdi quan he xa hdi Ndi tdm lai, giai cap dd da tao ra mdt the gidi theo hinh mau cita nd". Song, dil la d thdi dai Mac hay thdi dai chiing ta, Mac ludn khdng phai la ngudi iing hd cho qua trinh toan eau hda tu ban chii nghTa. Mae cho rang "nhu cau khdng ngimg md rdng thi trudng tieu thy san pham da thuc day giai cap tu san di tdi khap noi tren toan cau", va tien doan rang sy phat trien chil nghTa tu ban se khdng the tranh khdi dan tdi viec "md dudng cho nhirng cudc khimg hoang ngay cang sau sac va rdng khdp hon". Mac chi ra rang cac hanh vi dau CO cd sire cdng pha rat ldn ddi vdi toan bd nen kinh te va tat yeu se gay ra cac cudc khiing hoang va lam cho chiing ngay cang tram trpng hon. Hon nira, dng cdn nhin rd bien phap ma giai cap tu san gpi la thdng '*' AIG 1^ cong ty bao hiem nhan thp 16n nhat tai My, t4i san 1100 ty USD, thang 9-2008 suyt pha san, sau duac FED (Cue Du trO Lien bang My) r6t 85 ty USD de ciru, cuoi ciing Chinh phii My tiep quan 79.9% CO phin. Bear Steams la tap doin moi giai chimg khoin vi ngin hing dau tu hing dau Pho Wall, cung .suyt bj phi sin, thing 3-2008 dupc mpt ngin hing khic mua \^i. qua cac cudc cai each kieu tiem tien de mai mai tranh khdi khiing hoang, chang qua chi la mdt ao tudng chinh tri. Nhu mpi cupc each mang, Mac mong mudn trong ddi minh se nhin thay trat ty cu bj lat dd. Nhung, chii nghTa tu ban hien van cdn cd siic sdng kha manh me, vdi tu duy sang sudt cua minh, Mac chi ed the thay trude dugc nhting sai lam va nhung budc di quanh co cua cac the he trong tuong lai. Nghien cim hgc thuyet Mac chiing ta se phat hien thay dng quan tam nhieu van de cd lien quan den the gidi ngay nay. Chu nghia tu bdn la "thay phu thdy" khong dieu khien noi IU dm binh cua minh Neu Mac dugc ehimg kien cudc khiing hoang kinh te hien nay, nhat djnh dng se rat hao himg khang djnh lai du bao trudc day ciia dng, rang cac khuyet tat bam sinh ciia chil nghTa tu ban chinh la nguyen nhan gay ra cudc khiing hoang hien nay. Ong se thay rd trong tinh hinh hdi nhap kinh te toan cau, sy phat trien hien dai tren ITnh vyc tai chinh tien te, nhu chimg khoan hda va cac san pham phai sinh ciia chimg khoan, dang lam cho thj trudng tran ngap nhtrng nii ro. Khdng cd nhting sang kien dd, su tich luy tu ban trong may chye nam qua le ra da giam xudng nhieu. Va neu nhu vay dich vu tai chinh da khdng the tham nhap sau hon va nhieu hon vao xa hpi. Ket qua ciia nhtrng sang kien ndi tren la nhimg nam gan day nhu cau tieu dimg va kem theo la sy phdn thjnh cua thj trudng ngay cang phu thude vao the tin dung va cac khoan vay the chap; ddng thdi, sy suy giam quyen lyc ciia cac nghiep doan va sy cat giam cac khoan phue lpi xa hdi da lam cho ngudi dan trd LY LUAN CHiNH TRI 9 - 2009 79 nen dl bj tdn thuong hon trudc nhimg cii sdc eiia thj trudng. Trong may thap nien vira qua, he thdng tai chinh toan eau kem dn djnh nay da ddng gdp khdng nhd eho tang trudng kinh te toan cau, song nd cung tat yeu tao ra mdt loat cac bong bdng tai chinh, trong dd nguy hiem nhat la bong bdng tren thj trudng bat dpng san My. Hoat dpng eiia thj trudng bat ddng san My giti vai trd ndng cdt trong ca hai ITnh vyc duy tri nhu cau tieu diing va thuc day thi trudng tai chinh qudc te. Sy nd tung ciia bong bdng thj trudng bat ddng san My da gay ra nhirng tac ddng sau sac cho kinh te toan cau. Neu dupc chimg kien sy kien nay chac chdn Mac se chi ra rang, cudc khiing hoang nay la mpt thi du hoan my eho thay ehii nghTa tu ban gidng nhu mpt "thay phii thuy bat lyc trong viec dieu khien cac am binh do minh gpi len". Mac khdng he ao tudng rang tham hpa kinh te ty nd se cd the dan den mpt sy thay ddi xa hpi. Mac hieu rat rd ban chat ciia ehu nghTa tu ban la lam phat sinh va nudi dudng sy cd lap xa hpi. Ong viet, trong he thdng tu ban chii nghTa dd, "ngoai mdi quan he tu lpi trang trgn va sy thanh toan tien bae tan nhan ra, giira ngudi vdi ngudi ehdng cdn bat ky mdi lien he nao khac". That vay, chii nghTa tu ban de eho xa hdi "roi vao viing nudc bang gia ciia su tinh toan vj ky". Tinh vj ky dan din nhting thai do bang quan, vd cam trudc nhiing khiing hoang ca nhan, nhu cdng nhan bj nha may sa thai, bj xiet ng. Tinh trang cd lap xa hpi dd ciing can trd viec tap hgp nhtrng cdng dan tich eye, hieu bilt tinh hinh dl tim kiem nhiing md hinh xa hdi tien tiln hon nhdm thay the chii nghTa tu ban. Trudc het, Mac se dat cau hdi lam the nao de khac phuc tinh trang tieu eye xa hpi cd sire cdng pha ldn nay. Mac cho rang d thdi cua dng, cac nghiep doan va cac dang cdng nhan khi ay da tien len dugc mpt budc. Bdi vay, trong bd Tit bdn, dng viet: "Mue tieu trudc mat" la "td chiic nhimg ngudi vd san thanh mdt giai cap" va "nhiem vu dau tien" ciia giai cap nay la "gianh thang lgi trong cude chien dau vi dan chu". Bay gid, neu cdn sdng, chdc chan Mac se khuyen khich mpi ngudi dan tang cudng y thire tap the, thanh lap cac td chirc hiep hdi mdi, de cd the chdng lai tinh trang hien nay cua chit nghTa tu ban va quyet djnh can phai lam gi de cac nhu cau cua minh dupc dap ung mdt each tdt hon. Tim kiem cdc phircrng dn thay ddi chu nghia tie bdn Trong cudc khung hoang hien nay, cdn chua xuat hien nhiing ngudi hang hai thuc hien sy bien ddi nham thay the chii nghTa tu ban. Khoang trdng nay cd le la dieu lam Mac dau dau hon ca. Tai nudc My, gan day xuat hien mdt sd kien nghj gay ra su chii y eiia du luan. Nhting kien nghi ay bj che gieu la cd tinh chat "xa hdi chu nghTa", ehdng qua la do cae kien nghj dd tien bp hon so vdi cae de nghj cua phai ta trong Dang Dan chii ma thdi. Chang han, Dean Baker, ddng Giam doc Trung tam Nghien cuu kinh te va chinh tri, dang keu gpi an djnh mirc luong gidi han cao nhat la 2 trieu USD mdi nam cho nhting ngudi lam viec d Phd Wall va ban hanh che dp thue giao djch tai chinh de cd the dp mdt mirc phi gia tang liiy tien len cac giao djch, nhu ban hodc chuyen nhupng chimg khoan, trai phieu va cac tai san tai chinh khac. Cd le 80 LY LUAN CHiNH TRI 9 - 2009 Mac se coi de nghj nay chi la mdt trudng hgp hoan hao ve sy phan tan nii ro sau cudc khiing hoang. Cd le Mac se van nghi ngd nhting ngudi cho ring viec qudc hiiu hda ngan hang - mdt qua trinh da tiln hanh tai Thuy Dien va Nhat Ban trong cudc khiing hoang tai chinh hdi thap nien 90 - cd the dan tdi sy thay ddi thyc chit. Mdt trong cac phuong an cip tiln, dupc nhieu ngudi ndi tdi nhit la phuang an eua mdt ngudi khdng theo chii nghTa Mac. Dd la nha kinh te Willem Buiter, d trudng Kinh te Luanddn, cyu thanh vien Uy ban ^hinh saeh tien te ngan hang Anh. Buiter de nghj chuyen toan bd nganh tai chinh tiln te thanh mdt nganh phye vu cdng ich. Trong the gidi hien nay, cac ngan hang khdng the tdn tai ma khdng ed bao hilm tien giri ciia dan chiing va cac ngan hang trung uong hoat ddng nhu nhiing ngudi cho vay cim canh cudi ciing. Buiter cho rang ' khdng cd ly do nao de cac ngan hang tiep tue tdn tai nhu nhirng thiet che kiem ldi sd hiru tu nhan. De nghj nay eiia Buiter thda man dupe yeu cau ma chinh Mac da timg viet trong Tuyen ngon cua Ddng Cpng sdn: "tap trung mpi khoan tin dung vao cac ngan hang nha nudc". Ddi vdi Mac, viec kiem tra, chinh ddn he thdng tai ehinh tien te tir mdt CO cau cd anh hudng tdi xa hdi thanh mpt CO cau cd traeh nhiem vdi xa hpi, dieu dd se nang cao y nghTa quan trpng ciia viec giai cap cdng nhan gianh thdng lpi trong cudc "dau tranh vi dan chu" nham thay ddi can ban he thdng tu ban ehii nghTa. Buiter vilt: "Tir tai chinh hda nen kinh te tdi xa hpi hda nganh tai chinh tien te la mpt budc nhd ciia cac luat su, song lai la mdt budc tiln Idn ciia nhan loai". Rd rang, de cd dupc nhtrng chii truong cap tien, khdng nhat thiet eir phai la mdt nha macxit. Nhung can phai nhan thirc dugc la sy thay ddi cap tien chac chan khdng the bat dau tir "mgt bude nhd cua cac luat su" (tire la chi can tap hgp tat ca nhung "ngudi giti tien dat eugc" ve mdt can phdng de ky mpt vai thda thuan nao dd). Chac chan Mac se chi cho thay rang, neu khdng dya vao cac phong trao va cac dang phai cap tien mdi de phat trien lyc lugng quan ehiing, thi se khdng thyc hien dugc viec xa hpi hda nganh tai ehinh tien te. Cu the la, trong cupc khiing hoang kinh te hdi thap nien 70, cac lyc lupng cap tien trong nhieu dang xa hdi - dan chii chau Au da dua ra nhtrng de nghj tuong tu, nhung vi hp chua the gianh dupc vj tri lanh dao trong dang de ed the iing hp eho nhting de nghj nay, nen hp da bj che gieu la ldi thdi. Ve eo ban, trong vai thap nien tdi, cac dang phai d phuang Tay eiing van se ehua that sy di vao thao luan van de ed nen diing phuang thirc cap tien de thyc hien viee dan chil hda nen kinh te hay khdng. Trong khi dd, cho tdi nay xa hdi van eir phai tra gia cho sy bai bae cac y tudng dd. Mae da timg phan tieh mdt each thuyet phuc ve cac nhan td bat hpp ly ea ban bat ngudn tir thj trudng tu ban chu nghTa, gid day cac nhan td dd lai dang tai xuat hien. De duy tri can can thu chi, tat ca cac nha may va cdng ty deu thai ngudi va ha luong ciia nhirng nhan vien duong chirc. Tinh trang viee lam khdng dn djnh se dan den ket qua lam giam nhu eau eua toan bd nen kinh te. Diing nhu Mac ndi, nhiing hanh vi bat hpp ly vi md se gay ra hau qua xau nhat cho nen kinh te vT md. Gid day chiing ta da thay la viec coi nhe ly LY LUAN CHiNH TRI 9 - 2009 81 luan cua Mac va ehi tin vao "ban tay vd hinh" eua Adam Smith se dua ngudi ta den nhung tinh hudng khd khan nhu the nao. Cupc khiing hoang tai ehinh hien nay cdn cho thay nhirng bat hpp ly d ngoai ITnh vyc tai chinh. Chang han, Tdng thdng My B. Obama de nghj ditng viec mua ban han ngach tfn chi cacbon (carbon credits) lam bien phap giai quyet cude khimg hoang khf hau: cac doanh nghiep du tieu ehuan phat thai khi nha kinh cd the ban han ngach tin chi cacbon cho cac doanh nghiep khdng dat tieu ehuan dd. Nghj djnh thu Kyoto keu gpi xay dyng he thdng trao ddi tuong ty giiia cac qudc gia vdi nhau. Nhung ca hai de an nay deu cd mdt tdn tai nguy hiem: ehiing deu phu thude vao thj trudng cac san pham phai sinh rat khdng dn djnh, vdn de bj tac ddng bdi sy thao tung eiia nha nudc va sy sup do ciia tin dung. Chdc chan Mac se yeu eau rang, de giai quyet cac van de toan eau nhu van dl khi hau, can phai tir bd Idgich ciia thj trudng tu ban chil nghTa, chir khdng phai la sii dung cac thiet che nha nudc de tang cudng Idgich ay. Cung nhu vay, cd le Mac se keu gpi sy doan ket qudc te tren phuang dien kinh tl, chir khdng phai la hd hao sy canh tranh giira cac qudc gia. Nhu Mac vilt trong Tuyen ngon cua Ddng Cpng sdn: "It nhit, sy lien hiep trong hanh ddng ctia cac nudc di dau se la dieu kien diu tien dl giai phdng giai cap vd san". Nhung viee xay dyng cac thi ehe mdi va phat ddng cac phong trao mdi nhdm tao ra su thay ddi thi phai bit diu tir trong timg nudc. Tuy rang Mac timg keu gpi "Vd san toan the gidi hay doan kit lai!", song Mac van kien tri cho rang giai cip cdng nhan trong mdi nudc deu "phai giai quyet mpi van de vdi giai cap tu san trong nudc minh trudc da". Cac bien phap thay ddi the che kinh te, chinh tri va luat phap hien ed "di nhien d cac nudc khac nhau thi se khac nhau". Song dii trong hoan canh nao, Mac se kien tri eho rang bien phap dem lai su thay ddi tan goc re la trudc het phai lam cho mpi ngudi khdng cdn nhiing ao tudng. Lam the nao de mpi ngudi het ao tudng? Ngay ea khi cudc khung hoang tai chinh dang hiit can mau cua nhan dan nhieu nudc, khien eho dan ehiing mpi tang lop, tdn giao, ehiing tdc deu cam thay lo lang, bat dn; khi ma het nhu trudc day, nhirng ngudi dan lao ddng binh thudng van ehju sy bdc lot va ap biie nang ne, thi cac tien doan van la bat djnh. Gia thu Mac cdn sdng tdi bay gid, cd le dng se khdng chi ra chinh xac cudc khiing hoang hien nay bao gid se ket thiic va ket thiic bang each nao. Thay vao dd, cd the dng se luu y rang cupc khiing hoang dd la mdt bd phan khdng the tach rdi trong su tdn tai nang ddng cua chii nghTa tu ban. Cac chinh khach cai luong cho rang hp cd the loai bd dugc su bat binh dang giai cap bam sinh va cac eugc khung hoang chu ky trong xa hgi tu ban. Chinh hg mdi dich thyc la nhtrng ngudi thich ao tudng cua thdi dai ehung ta, ban than hg bam vao quan diem khdng tudng cho rang the gidi se nhu hp nghT. Neu nhu cudc khiing hoang kinh te toan cau hien nay ndi len mdt dilu gi, thi dieu dd la: Cac Mac la mdt nha hien thuc vT dai nhat. ' '" Nguoi djch: NGUYEN HAI Nguon: http//www.foreignpolicy.com/story/ cms.php?story_id=4856 82 LY LUAN CHiNH TRI 9 - 2009 . dai tren ITnh vyc tai chinh tien te, nhu chimg khoan hda va cac san pham phai sinh ciia chimg khoan, dang lam cho thj trudng tran ngap nhtrng . vao the tin dung va cac khoan vay the chap; ddng thdi, sy suy giam quyen lyc ciia cac nghiep doan va sy cat giam cac khoan phue lpi xa hdi