Các vấn đề đối mặt với sự ổn định của Iran thách thức kinh tế và phong trào thanh niên

Swan Problems Facing Iran’s Stability: Economic Challenges and the Youth Movement Iran is facing several unique challenges today in relationship to economic development, democratization, and defining their national identity The reason these challenges are at hand are primarily due to two outstanding issues: the nation’s poor economic conditions and the creation of a youth baby boom after the 1979 revolution that established their current theocratic government The Iranian economy has been lackluster in the 21 st century Hossein Abbasi-Nejad, the Associate Professor of Economics at University of Tehran, has written a comprehensive article on Iran’s economy in the beginning of twenty first century In the article AbassiNejad points out that “In [sic] past five years, the rate of growth of real GDP has been 7.6, 6.8, 4.8, 5.4, and 4.7 percent, respectively … Although the rate of economic growth has been higher in Iran compared to [sic] last three decades, it is not high enough to offset Iran’s bad economic performance in three decades In fact, Iran needs Swan higher sustained economic growth to reduce its gap from developed and even some developing countries.” Abassi-Nejad attributes the poor economy to several key factors: federalizing businesses after the revolution, failed supply-side government policies, and the volatility of the oil markets International pressures due to the Iranian nuclear program have cast a pall over future economic growth; therefore foreign investment could trend downward, further having a negative impact on the Iranian economy Obviously, the political-economic impact on Iran regarding its nuclear program and the implications of current and further sanctions is a serious matter that requires understanding of the various motivating factors in Iran’s creation of a (supposedly peaceful) nuclear program One must understand that the majority of Iran’s population is comprised of a younger demographic Major Brendan Harris, in his paper on Iran’s expanding youth population and the national security implications on the United States, points out that the “youth bulge” has serious short-term and long-term implications on the Iranian economy, especially since it is estimated that the Iranian unemployment rate is at Swan least 14 percent The long-term economic impact, specifically relating to the nuclear issue at hand, is that Iran will have a need for an increase in energy output to keep up with the expanding population’s consumption That being said, Iran could have a legitimate nuclear energy need However, without providing access to their nuclear program sites to the IAEA, it is not apparent that their intentions are truly peaceful The conundrum that Iran has is that they cannot continue to isolate themselves from the global community, either politically or economically If their population continues to expand, they continue to have such high unemployment rates, and they continue to inspire UN Security Council economic sanctions, their faltering economy could motivate their young population to revolt and install a new form of government similar to the events of the Iranian Revolution in 1979 Regarding the political environment and national identity of Iran, behind these matters lies the growing youth population which seeks a more open society that is both a regional leader and a legitimate voice in the international stage The economy continues to embolden the Swan youth to pressure the political infrastructure to evolve; though most would gather that true political changes are not occurring – at least at the pace that the youth movement would prefer The expanding youth population calling for reform and the controversial nuclear program strongly impacts their politics and national identity Their national identity is a dichotomy: leadership being an oppressive theocracy based on repression and a youth movement seeking change The opposing factions have created tensions that continue to show a national identity going in two separate directions In conclusion, the biggest challenge facing Iran between the above three issues (national identity, liberalization, and the economy) would appear to be the Iranian national identity as it impacts both their political infrastructure and their economy The two contrasting cultures, the status quo infrastructure vs the bourgeoning youth demographic, continue to push and pull the national identity between one of reform and one of hard-line religious leadership If the hardliners win this struggle, Iran is on a path toward international confrontation, which may impact their economy and national security Swan negatively If the youth movement wins the day, there could be a new path of openness with the world that may positively impact this isolated Middle Eastern nation-state Swan Works Cited Abbasi-Nejad, Hossein “Iran’s Economy in the beginning of twenty first century-Part II.” H.A.N.D Research Foundation Published Date is Unknown http://handresearch.org/pages/edo_list.php? id=8, 15 Dec 2008 Babael, Hamid “Iran's energy needs will not be met by oil alone.” The Guardian 20 Jan 2006 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/jan/20/iran.uk, accessed 16 Oct 2008 Campbell, Kelly “Is Iran Facing an Economic Crisis.” United States Institute of Pease May 2007 http://www.usip.org/pubs/usipeace_briefings/2007/0510_iran_eco nomic_crisis.html, accessed 16 Oct 2008 DNI “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities.” National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) Dec 2007 http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf, accessed 30 Sep 2008 Swan Fathi, Nazila “Iran: the next revolution? Iran's population is mostly young, educated, and frustrated with the country's social restrictions And they're starting to make noise.” BNET Business Network 10 Jan 2003 http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0BUE/is_7_135/ai_n18615 090, accessed 16 Oct 2008 Harris, Brendan M., Major, USAF “IRAN’S YOUTH BULGE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S NATIONAL SECURITY [PDF].” Air Command and Staff College, Air University Apr 2006 https://www.afresearch.org/skins/rims/q_mod_be0e99f3- fc56-4ccb-8dfe670c0822a153/q_act_downloadpaper/q_obj_45d71918-302b4bd9-b39e-a82555bbb992/display.aspx?rs=enginespage, accessed 16 Oct 2008 “Iran: Energy overview.” BBC News 15 Feb 2006 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4688984.stm, accessed16 Oct 2008 Swan Kellogg, Amy “Inside Iran Part II: The Younger Generation.” FoxNews 24 Nov 2005 http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,176456,00.html, accessed 16 Oct 2008 Levitt, Matthew and Peter Crail “Can Sanctions Be Effective in Halting Iran's Nuclear Program?” 19 Oct 2007 Council on Foreign Relations http://www.cfr.org/publication/14500, accessed 16 Oct 2008 Rivlin, Paul “IRAN'S ENERGY VULNERABILITY.” MERIA: Middle East Review of International Affairs Dec 2006 http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2006/issue4/jv10no4a7.html, accessed 16 Oct 2008 “UN approves new Iran resolution.” BBC News 28 Sep 2008 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7640133.stm, accessed 16 Oct 2008 United Nations Security Council “SECURITY COUNCIL DEMANDS IRAN SUSPEND URANIUM ENRICHMENT BY 31 AUGUST, OR FACE POSSIBLE ECONOMIC, DIPLOMATIC Swan SANCTIONS.” UN.org 31 Jul 2006 http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8792.doc.htm, accessed 16 Oct 2008 United Nations Security Council “SECURITY COUNCIL IMPOSES SANCTIONS ON IRAN FOR FAILURE TO HALT URANIUM ENRICHMENT, UNANIMOUSLY ADOPTING RESOLUTION 1737 (2006).” UN.org 23 Dec 2006 http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8928.doc.htm, accessed 16 Oct 2008 US Department of State, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation UN Security Council Resolution 1803 on Iran's Nuclear Program State.gov Apr 2008 http://www.state.gov/t/isn/rls/fs/102891.htm, accessed 16 Oct 2008 Whittington, James “Youth shapes Iran's economy.” BBC News Dec 2002 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2535127.stm, accessed 16 Oct 2008 Swan 10 “The Youth Boom in Iran.” niacINsight 10 Jan 2008 http://niacblog.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/the-youth-boom-iniran, accessed 16 Oct 2008 10 ... 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