^ DAC DIEM VA XU HUONG BIEN DONG • • CUA TRAT TU DONG A HIEN NAY N G U Y E N H O A N G GIAP^^ P H A N V A N RAN** Nhflng bien ddi s a u sac cua mdi trUdng dia chfnh t r j Ddng A t r o n g h a i t h a p n i e n q u a ke tfl k h i chien t r a n h l a n h k e t t h u c k h d n g ehi md r a mpt k h d n g g i a n mdi cho sU tUdng t a c q u y e n lUc giua cac c h u t h e qud'c te' t a i day, m a cdn thiic day q u a t r i n h djnh b i n h mpt cau t r u e mdi cua t r a t tU q u y e n lUc k h u vuc Cau t[.]
^ DAC DIEM VA XU HUONG BIEN DONG CUA TRAT TU DONG A HIEN NAY • • NGUYEN HOANG GIAP^^ P H A N VAN RAN** N hflng bien ddi sau sac cua mdi trUdng dia - chfnh trj Ddng A hai t h a p nien q u a ke tfl chien t r a n h lanh ket thuc khdng ehi md mpt khdng gian mdi cho sU tUdng tac quyen lUc giua cac chu t h e qud'c te' tai day, ma cdn thiic day qua t r i n h djnh binh mpt cau true mdi cua t r a t tU quyen lUc khu vuc Cau trflc mdi p h i n a n h nhflng bien ddi thUc liic va sU tUdng tac dan xen, da dien va phflc t a p hien trudc bet gifla cac thifc the chinh yeu t r e n "ban cd quyen luc" khu viic, dd la cae nUdc ldn My, T r u n g Qud'c, N h a t Ban, cflng vdi i n h hudng r a t quan trpng cua Nga, An Dp, ASEAN va tren mflc dp n h a t djnh ea vai trd cua H a n Qud'c, Lien minh chau Au (EU), Oxtraylia Bai viet se t a p t r u n g de cap dac diem hien va xu hudng bien ddng ciia t r a t tu quyen lUc d Ddng A t h a p nien tdi I DAC D I E M CUA TRAT T\f QUYEN L i r e D O N G A H I E N NAY Can c a n q u y e n life d i c h c h u y e n n h a n h , h i n h t h a n h t h e d a cvfc Den cudi t h a p nien dau the ky XXI, t r a t tu quyen liic Ddng A da d i l n sii djch chuyen n h a n h chdng ve so s a n h thiic luc sflc m a n h gifla cac nUdc ldn My van la sieu cUdng nha't, n h u n g sUc m a n h cua nu'dc cang trUpt sau vao suy giam tUdng ddl nhflng sai lam n a m cam quyen cua G Bush va dac biet la dudi tac ddng ciia suy thoai kinh te tfl n a m 2008 N h a t Ban thi v i n loay hoay, khd xfl vdi mfdc cd trd lai "qud'c gia binh thUdng", ddng thdi kinh te tri tre keo dai va sU chap ehdn viec k h a n g djnh " b i n sac chau A" nen td cd p h i n "hut hdi" cudc ganh dua quyen lUc d khu vUc Ddng A Trai lai, cac nUdc ldn khac n h u T r u n g Qud'c, An Dp va Nga deu vUdn len m a n h me, dac biet la sU trdi day n h a n h chdng cua T r u n g Qud'c vdi dich ngam gianh ngdi ba ehu khu vUc, cflng nhflng yeu sach mpt t h e m sflc nang ciia hp ddi se chia quyen liie toan c i u Hieu Ung chuyen hda r a t r5 net can can sUc m a n h gifla eae chu the quyen lUc chfl chd't d Ddng A hien tad cd sd dinh vj mpt t h u t u quyen lUc mdi tai khu vUc so vdi t h a p nien 90 the ky XX T h a t vay, T r u n g Qud'c vdi nhflng budc dot pha p h a t trien da n h a n h chdng vUdn len vj the'eudng qud'c chfnh tri, kinh te khu viic va the gidi hien Trpng lupng sUc m a n h T r u n g Qud'c da tao sU djch chuyen n h a n h , m a n h va ldn nha't can can quyen lUc Ddng A dUdng * PGS.TS Nguyen Hoang Giap, TS Phan Van Ran, Vien Quan he quoc te Hoc vien CTQG HCM 10 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010 dai, va dUdng nhien lam thu hep t i m i n h sieu cUdng quan sU ngang bang vdi My eua nhieu nUdc ldn tai khu vUc, trUdc bet Ngan sach quo'c phdng hang nam ciia la My va Nhat Bin Diem nha'n mang tinh Trung Qud'c hai thap nien qua deu tang budc ngdat trdng cd ca'u quyen liic hien sd (tfl 10% de'n 17%), nam 2008 dat d Ddng A dd la sU thu hep rat An 61,9 ty USD, nam 2009 - 79 ty USD, nam tupng ve khoang each sflc manh cflng nhU 2010 dfl kien tang 15% so vdi nam 2009 i n h hudng ciia Trung Qud'c so vdi My va Day la nhflng so' theo thd'ng ke chinh Nhat Bin ve nhieu mat, nha't la ve quy thfle ciia Trung Qud'c, cdn theo danh gia md kinh t e ' " va tren mUc dp nhat djnh ca cua Bp Qud'c phdng My thi thfle chi cho i n h hudng chinh trj, van hoa Sii trdi day qud'c phdng cua Trung Qud'c tfl nam cita Trung Qud'c khdng cbi dUa cudc canh 2007 da khoang 138-156 ty USD, vUdn len tranh chien lUdc My- Trung trd vj tri thfl hai the gidi, chi sau My''" tam diem chi phdi mdi trUdng dja- chinh Cflng vdi Trung Qud'c, thi An Dp va trj va trat tU quyen lUc Deng A hien nay, Nga thap nien dau the ky XXI cung ma cen day Nhat Bin xud'ng tang bac cd sfl thang tie'n rat nhanh thfle lflc sflc quyen liic thfl hai d khu viic cflng vdi Nga, manh va anh hudng tren the gidi, ddng An Dp va ASEAN Day thfle sfl la diem thdi can dii cang sau hdn vao Ddng A thay ddi mau chd't nha't, tao them xung tu each cac the lUc mdi ndi va tai lUc mdi thfle day cupc ganh dua quyen liic ndi Vdi da phat trien kinh te manh, tiem d Ddng A len quy md va td'c dp cang quyet lUc quan sU tang nhanh, hien An Dp liet hdn trdng nhflng thap nien tdi diia vao diem tUa chac chan d Nam A, da Ddl vdi Ddng A, muc tieu cua Trung vUdn sang tao the dflng dn djnh d Ddng Qud'c rat ro rang, dd la thie't lap vai trd Nam A, ddng thdi tflng bflde vUdn len tim lanh dao khu viic Trung Qud'c coi sU suy kiem cho minh mpt chd dflng thich hdp giam sUc manh tUOng ddl cila My, Nhat tren "chie'u quyen lflc" Ddng Bic A, ndi ma Ban la thdi cd troi day thay the Nhat Ban vj the ciia Trung Qud'c, My, Nhat Ban lam diu t i u kinh te Ddng A'^', tfl day nam cflng vdi Nga rat manh va ve cd ban da ro lay vj tri din dau d khu 'vUc Trung Qudc rang Vdi muc tieu khdi phuc lai vai trd gin day da khdng cdn e ngai ne tranh cua mpt cfldng qud'c hang dau the gidi, nhflng cudc tranh luan triic dien vdi My - Nga trien khai chfnh sach ddl ngoai thiic nUdc dupc xac djnh la ddl thu canh tranh dung, giUdng cao bai dau - khi, tan chien lUdc khdng chi d Ddng A ma ca tam dung ldi the sflc manh va ky thuat quan tdan ciu'-^' Sach Tring ve qud'c phdng ciia sfl, cei trpng cac cd che da phudng (Lien nUdc nam 2006 tflng vach ro tie'n trinh hop qud'c, SNG, SCO, CSTO ), tim ke trd mpt sieu cfldng quan sU gdm ba sach ngan chan sU lan ludt khdng gian giai doan: giai doan mpt (den 2010), hien dja- chinh trj cUa NATO tren hudng Tay, dai hda lUc lUdng quan sii cd kha nang cung cd' the dflng tren dai dfldng bien phia danh thing mpt lUc lUdng quan sii bac Nam tfl Capcadd den vflng Trung A, tich trung; giai dean hai (de'n 2020), dudi kjp cflc hda sfl hpi nhap sang hfldng Ddng, va quan dpi cac cudng qud'c nhU Nga, chau sau cupc chien chdp nhoang vdi Gruzia (8Au; giai doan ba (den 2050), trd mpt 2008) b i t dau khdi dpng lai sii hien dien Nguyen Hodng Gidp Phan Vdn Rdn - Ddc diem vd xu hifdng hien ddng sang ci ban ciu Tay Tuy mflc dp mdi quan tam cua Nga ddl vdi Ddng A khdng bang cac nUde ldn da neu, nhUng hien Nga van la mdt trung tam sflc manh day quyen uy tren "ban cd quyen liic" khu viie 11 mdt p h i n cac khu viic lien ke nhu Nam A, Trung A va Nam Thai Binh DUdng Ddl vdi quan he Trung- Nhat, hdp tac cflng gia tang nhanh chdng, Nhat Ban trd ddl tac hang diu ciia Trung Qud'c, Nhu vay, vdi sU djch chuyen nhanh can ngupc lai Trung Qud'c da thay My trd can quyen liic, d Ddng A da hien dien cac ban hang sd' ciia Nhat Ban Khac trung tam sUc manh chii yeu, ddng vai trd vdi canh tranh My- Trung, canh tranh la cac cUc quyen liic, quan he va tUdng tac Trung - Nhat cd gidi ban chit yeu d Ddng lan trat tU khu vUc The da A Trong quan he My- Nhat, mat hdp tac ciic dupe hinh va la mpt ddc diem la ndi trdi va dUdc quy dinh bdi Hiep Udc ndi bdt nhdt cua trat tii quyen liic Ddng A an ninh gifla hai nUdc, nhien Nhat Ban cd xu hudng vUdn len bdt le thudc vao hien My, My trien khai nhieu bien Cap do, k h u o n k h o h d p t a c va c a n h phap kiim che Nhat Bin quy dao t r a n h q u y e n lijfc d a d a n g , c a n h t r a n h anh hudng cua minh Quan he Nga q u y e n l\ic " m e m " c a n g t a n g Trung, Nga - An, Trung- An khdng it Trong trat tU Ddng A hien nay, ndi ro mau t h u i n ldn, phUc tap nhUng hien mdt dac diem la cac chii the quyen lUc chii chieu hudng hdp tac van trdi hdn sd vdi chd't vfla hdp tac, vfla canh tranh va da'u canh tranh Mdt diem dang chfl y hdp tac va tranh vdi tren nhieu quy md va cap dp, mflc dp kiem che lan cao Quan canh tranh d Ddng A hien la cac nUde he My - Trung dang d trang thai vfla hdp deu chfl trpng gia tang anh hfldng quyen tac, vfla canh tranh, vfla la del tac, vfla la liic "mem", treng dd ngoai giao van bda, ddl thil Tuy quan he hai nUdc chUa dat ngoai giao cdng chflng, quang ba hinh anh mflc can bing chien Ifldc, nhflng cap dp qud'c gia dUdc dac biet quan tam Ngeai hdp tac va canh tranh sau sac ca Sdng My la nUdc cd truyen thd'ng tren linh vUc phUdng lin da phUdng Mat hdp tac da ldn nay, Trung Qud'c cflng dfldc danh gia dang de'n mflc che dfl trdng thap nien dau the Cd sfl gia tang anh hUdng "mem" kha ky XXI, hai nflde thfldng xuyen cd nhflng nhanh chong d Ddng A, nha't la Ddng Nam cang thing, "va dap" va mau t h u i n ldn A, coi trpng dau tU phat trien cac cd sd (van de dan chu nhan quyen, Dai Lean, giao lUu van hda rpng rai vdi mpt he thd'ng Tay Tang, ty gia ddng nhan dan te, tin truyen thdng ddl ngoai cang phat tac ) nhung quan he v i n khdng bj dd trien Nhat Ban, An Dp, Nga va Han Qudc vd""'' Canh tranh My - Trung diin tren cung tich cUc sif dung tham nhap van bda ta't ca cac mat tfl kinh te, chinh trj, an de cai thien hinh anh, tang cudng anh ninh quo'c phdng, tfl sflc manh "cflng" den hudng d khu vflc sflc manh "mem", quy md md rdng tfl khu viic de'n toan cau Tai Ddng A, dja ban Svf o n d i n h Xxidng doi la n e t c h u canh tranh gifla hai nflde bao trflm tfl d a o nhifng n g u y cd x u n g d o t c u n g Ddng Bic A cho de'n Ddng Nam A va ca r a t t i e m t a n g 12 Nghien citu Ddng Nam A 4/2010 Day la mdt dac diem ro net nha't ciia Nga- Nhat, gifla Trung Qud'c vdi mdt sd iii) Dgng tha trat tu Ddng A hien Canh tranh nflde ASEAN d Bien Ddng ba la cac van de cd "tac dpng lan tda" inh quyen liic gifla cae nflde ldn My, Trung Qud'c, Nhat Ban, Nga, An Dp deu anh hfldng den an ninh toan khu vUc he hudng manh den dja - chinh trj va dja - q u i ciia sii le thupc l i n cang kinh te d khu viic, vi day la nhUng nUdc cd tang ve kinh te, chinh trj va an ninh gifla vai trd quan trpng ve chinh trj, an ninh va cac qud'c gia khu viic Dd la cac van kinh te tren the gidi Net ehii dao de lien quan de'n npi trj cua mpt so' nUdc, quan he gifla cac nflde ldn la ta't ca hp van de tang cUdng vfl trang khu vUc deu mong mud'n tri mdi quan he va cac van de an ninh phi truyen thd'ng khudn khd hpp tac va da'u tranh nhUng khdng de cho quan he bj dd vd Do dd, Mufc t h e che h o a t r a t tvf quyen lflc khdng mpt nUde nao chii trUdng triic dien tha'p, cac t h e che d a phifdng co vai tro ddl diu hdac gay chien tranh de chdng h a n che t r o n g xac lap q u y e n l\ic Dong A lai nudc ldn khac Tat ci cac nUdc tiep tuc Budc vao the ki XXI, lan sdng toan ciu tap trung phat trien da't nUdc, nha't la hoa cang lan rpng va sau sac hdn da kinh te, de nang cao sUc manh tdng hdp thfle day cac quan he seng phfldng va da qud'c gia He qua cua nd la nen hda binh phfldng, tang cfldng sfl lien ke't gifla cac va an ninh ciia khu viic tiep tuc dupc qud'c gia, cac khu vUc tren the gidi Quan tri, sii dn dinh tUdng ddi Id dUdng hUdng he kinh te gifla cac ben cang chat chii dao ciia trat tii Dong A hien cung che hdn, tao dieu kien thfle day quan he nhu thap nien tdi chinh trj - ngoai giao phat trien Trong bdi Mat khac, xu hudng hda binh dn djnh, canh dd, mac dfl d Ddng A hien hflu rat hpp tac, hpi nhap va phat trien d Ddng A nhieu djnh che, td chfle hdp tac lien ke't dang song hanh dan xen vdi xung dot, bao vdi quy md khac tfl tieu khu vflc den lUc khung bd'va mat dn djnh tai nhieu ndi khu viic va hen khu viic (APEC, ARF, Dd Vd van nhflng nhan td' phflc tap, nen SCO, EAS, Hop tac Ddng Bic A ) vdi sU hea binh d Ddng A dang tiem an rat nhieu tham gia ciia hau nhU ta't ca cac cUdng nguy cd, thach thfle vdi cac dang thfle qud'c, nhung tinh the che hda la rat tha'p, , nhfl: i) Dgng thd nhdt lien quan de'n tinh cd che boat dpng va sfl rang bupc rat ldng thie'u chic chan va bat dn djnh tiem tang leo, mflc dp dung hda va gan ke't ldi ich quan he gifla cac nflde ldn nhfl My, gifla cac nude ldn khdng cao Tinh hinh Nhat va Trung Qud'c, d Ddng A lam cho mac trdt tU hoa, the che lai chUa thie't lap dUdc mpt cd che du hoa cua trdt tU Dong A cUng rdt thdp manh de kiem che tat ca cac nUdc ldn de Cach hanh xif song phudng gifla cac nflde hp cd each hanh xif cd the chap nhan dUpc cflng mpt cd che da phfldng lai mang ddl vdi cdng ddng khu viic ii) Dgng thd y nghia quye't dinh va khdng bj kiem soat hai la cac xung dot tiem tang khu hoac khdng bj phu thupc vao cac rang viic nhU: cac mau thuan tren Ban dao bupc da phfldng, dan den hien tfldng "vfldt Trieu Tien; gifla Trung Qud'c va Dai Loan; rao", "mac ca", "di dem" dien phd bien, day la dieu khac biet can ban so vdi the cac tranh chap lanh thd Trung- Nhat, Nguyen Hodng Gidp, Phan Vdn Rdn - Ddc diem vd xu hudng hidn ddng che eua Lien minh chau Au (EU) Cho nen, eae the ehe da phUdng d Ddng A khdng hoac c h u a m a n g tinh thiic chat va dong vai tro rdt hgn che tUdng tdc vd xac lap trdt tU quyen liic khu viic Vai tro c u a n h a n t o lich svt, c h u n g h i a d a n t o e , y thifc h e t a c d o n g q u a n t r o n g d e n t r a t tif q u y e n Ivfc D o n g A Ddng A ed tfnh tUdng ddng nha't dinh ve cd't loi van m i n h - van hda nhUng lai da dang, nha't la ve che dp chinh trj, ljch sif, kinh te, b i n s i c dan tdc Hdn nfla, nhflng van de ljch sif gifla nhieu nUdc ldn vdi n h a u va gifla hp vdi cac nudc nhd va vfla d khu vUc den van tiep tuc gay anh hudng tieu cUc ddl vdi an ninh khu viic Hau q u i la viee xay diing cd che hpp tac an ninh va lien ket kinh te tai day gap nhieu khd k h a n , trac trd Trdng chau Au tfl lau da ce cd ca'u hdp tac an ninh tap the (NATO, OSCE), thi d Ddng A mdi chi ed cd che an ninh da phUdng trdng khudn khd D i i n d a n an ninh ASEAN (ARF) n h u n g lai bet sflc ldng lee, boat ddng nhieu n a m qua van chii yeu xoay q u a n h viec xay diing niem tin va ngoai giao phdng ngfla Mdi trfldng dja - chinh trj Ddng A ludn ham ehfla tfnh da dang va phflc tap Tfnh chat b i t ngudn tfl nhieu nguyen nhan, song chu yeu v i n la cac mdi quan he chinh trj ben va ben ngoai khu viic cflng ddng thdi chi phdi Nhflng nguy cd hdi sinh cua chu nghia q u a n phiet, chii nghia dan tpc, chu nghia nUdc ldn, van de t r a n h chap lanh thd, lanh hai tai cac vflng bien, ke c i nhflng m a u t h u i n co tfl qua khfl ljch sif va trd ngai ve "long tfl hao va sfl tdn thfldng dan tdc" ludn la nhflng van de ndi com q u a n he gifla mpt sd' 13 nUdc Ddng A la khu vUc tap t r u n g nhflng nUdc cd the che chfnh tri da dang, cd sU giad thda ciia cac vung van hda va tdn giao ldn la P h a t giao, Nho giad, Cd dd'c giao An Dp giao, Islam , nen van tiem i n nhflng nguy cd bflng p h a t xung dot ve y thfle he va van de d a n chit, n h a n quyen Mpt Ddng A nang ddng nhUng nhay cam, de bj tdn thUdng tfl nhflng n h a n td' ljch sif, tinh t h a n dan tec, y thfle he lai phai ddl mat trUdc cude ganh dua chien lupc quyet liet chUa cd hdi ket gifla cae cfldng qud'c, thi dUdng nhien tac ddng cua nhflng n h a n td' dd la khdng the xem thudng ddl vdi qua trinh tap hdp liic lUdng cflng nhU tao lap t r a t tu quyen lUc khu vUc II X U H N G B I E N D O N G CUA THAT TV QUYEN L l / C DONG A Su dich chuyen cua t r a t tU quyen lUc va dja- chinh trj Ddng A cd net dac thfl, n h u n g cung ludn ehju tac ddng va bj chi phdi bdi t r a t tii the gidi Xu hudng bien ddng ciia t r a t tU quyen lUc Ddng A trdng t h a p nien tdi trUdc bet tfly thudc vae sif thay ddi tUdng q u a n liic lupng gifla cac nUdc ldn cd k h a n a n g va t h a m vpng ba chu khu viic Cd q u a n diem cho r i n g , sii t r a n h gianh anh hudng va canh t r a n h quyen liic gifla cac nudc ldn d Ddng A se tie'p tuc gia tang n h u n g t r a t tU khu vUc, ve cd ban, van xoay q u a n h tUdng tac quyen lUc cUa tam giac chien lUpc M y - T r u n g - N h a t Mac dfl nUdc Nga tie'p tuc nd lUc phuc hdi vj tri cua minh tren trUdng qud'c te va khu vUc, nhUng k h a nang tac dpng cUa nUdc den Ddng A t h a p nien tdi van khdng cd budc dot pha so vdi hien N h a t B i n , mac dfl cd nhieu b a n che hdn so vdi My va Trung Qudc viec t r a n h gianh vj the 14 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010 ba chit khu vUc, nhUng van dupc coi la mdt nha't la My, Trung Qud'c, Nhat B i n va An nhan to' quan trpng khdng the khdng tinh Dp, CO le ca Nga, va sU tUdng tac gifla den Trung Qud'c, vdi nhflng gi de lai tfl cac yeu to' dja- chinh trj va dja- kinh te ljch sif va nhflng cdng cai each nen rat cd the phai ke de'n ca la Inddnexia, md cifa, dang nd liic vudn len de trd Han Qud'c tUdng lai'^' Tuy nhien, ba chu khu vUc va canh tranh vj the ciia vdi da phat trien nhu hien ciia mdt sd' My tren the gidi Treng dd My dang nUdc ldn cflng vdi nhflng tham vpng chien ket hdp nhieu lua chpn chfnh sach de Ifldc ciia hp, thi khdng the khdng trfl tinh tri va eung cd'them vj the cua minh d Ddng mpt kjeh ban ve sfl chuyen d i n tfl cau trflc A, dd dd My se lam nhflng gi cin thiet de da cue se sang lUdng cUc, gifla Trung Qud'c kiem che ci Trung Que'c va Nga Kha nang mdt ben va My, Nhat Ban, An Dp mpt ben cho mpt cudc xung dot chien lUdc gifla Mac dfl vay, kjeh ban chi cd the trd Trung Que'c va Nhat Bin la kha tiem hien thfle, Trung Qud'c thiic sU tang, nhien tam diem thiic sU cua canh trd "mdi de dpa" triic tie'p lpi ich tranh quyen liic d Ddng A lai diin gifla sd'ng cen ciia cac nUde ldn neu tren khdng My va Trung Qud'c, thiic te dudng nhu chi d Ddng A - Thai Binh Dudng, Nam A khdng thay ddi tUdng lai gin'^' Dien An Dp Dudng va khu vUc Trung A bien va ke't qua cila sii ganh dua chien lUdc Mpt so' quan diem lai nha'n manh, My-Trung se tac dpng de'n sii thay ddi vdng mpt hay hai thap nien tdi cac trat tU quyen lUc va mdi trUdng dja cue quyen liic cua Ddng A se tam dn djnh - chinh trj cua khu viic ve mat chinh tri va quan sU mpt giai Do tinh phflc tap canh tranh doan de phat trien kinh te Mpi qud'c gia quyen lUc d Ddng A nen cd quan diem deu y thfle quyen lUc thiic sU la trat tfl khac du tinh ci viec khdng loai trfl kha kinh te, khdng mpt qud'c gia nao nang trat tfl khu vUc chuyen tfl da cflc cdng viec tang them quyen lUc bing hien sang lUdng cUc Boi canh chien chien tranh, hoac b i n g tang cudng quan lupc tai chau A hien cho tha'y, cac dpi Cac nUdc dang di vao mpt qua trinh trung tam quyen liic mdi ndi va tai ndi tap hpp nhflng mang Ifldi hay khdi nhu Trung Qud'c, An Dp va Nga se mang kinh te cd tac dpng qua lai gifla cac khdi, lai dpng lUc cho cdng cupc tim kiem mpt anh hudng den cac ddl tac cd che cau trflc an ninh mdi tai khu vUc Hien dai Nhung tUdng lai sau dd se nhU the nao, boa quan sU tiep tuc dUdc day manh vdi cac nudc di tfl canh tranh kinh te tdi cang nhieu qud'c gia nd liic tang canh tranh anh hudng chinh tri cUdng lUc lupng tUdng xflng vdi sflc manh chieu hudng xac lap ba chu? Canh tranh kinh te cila minh, cdn cac qud'c gia vfla va gifla My va Trung Quo'c, gifla Trung Qudc nhd dang no lflc gifl vi trf cua minh va Nhat, gifla Nhat va Nga, gifla Trung se tien trien den dau? trat tfl khu vflc Theo dfl bao cua cac nha Qudc va An Do nghien cflu, tai Ddng A va Nam A, cac van Ta't ca deu la nhflng cau hdi hoan toan de chien Ifldc bj chi phdi va quye't djnh bdi ehfla de cd ldi giai dap mdt loat nhflng cfldng qud'c cd sflc manh ngang bang mpt each tfldng ddl: ro rang Tuy nhien, hien luc lUdng cd y nghia quan trpng doi vdi sfl thay ddi Nguyen Hodng Gidp, Phan Vdn Rdn - Ddc diem vd xu hifdng hie'n ddng trat tu khu viic la sii trdi day manh me ciia Trung Qud'c Ne'u Trung Qud'c tie'p tuc tri da tang trudng cao thap nien tdi, thi sU thay ddi tUdng tac quyen lUc se ta't yeu dan tdi viec tai ca'u trflc lai trat tu quyen liic khu vUc mdt each cd ban Mdt trat tu mdi se dupe hinh thanh, thee dd phan Anh sii tUdng tac quyen lUc mdi, hai bda dupe nhflng quan ngai va ldi Ich cd't yeu cua cac cudng qud'c chinh Vdi tiem luc tdng hdp vflng manh, bad gdm dan sd' ddng va cd trinh dp, thj trfldng khdng Id, vai trd cang tang nen kinh te the gidi va he thd'ng tai chfnh toan ciu, ta't ca deu bao trudc kha nang cang tang cua Trung Qud'c viec tao nhflng ddng lUc va nguy cd cflng nhu kha nang anh hudng qud'c te Van de dat se la lieu Trung Qudc se sif dung kha nang cang ldn manh cua minh de gat bd My khdi Ddng A hay hp se trd mpt phin nhflng nd life hdp tac Va My cd the lam gl de tri vj the ciia minh trUdc mpt Trung Qud'c dang cang ldn manh? Trong xu the hien nay, Trung Qud'c dang ddn nd lUc de vUOn len vj tri dan dau Ddng A bang viec tang cudng tdi da khoang each sflc manh ciia minh ddl vdi cac qud'c gia lang gieng, dac biet la Nhat Bin va Nga Xet ve mat dja - chfnh tri, sfl trdi day cua Trung Qud'c dang dat mpt thach thfle chien Ifldc mang tfnh da dien ddl vdi khu vflc Lich sif cho tha'y ring, cac cfldng qud'c mdi trdi day, nhflng he luy ddl vdi nhflng qudc gia nhd hdn va yeu hdn xung quanh la dieu khd tranh khdi Trung Qud'c se khdng theo dudi mpt sfl vfldt trdi ve sflc manh quan sfl de rdi di xam lang cac qud'c gia vflng (tat nhien khdng bao gid loai trfl kha nang nay), thay vao dd, dieu ma Trung Qudc cd the lam la se gay Ap liic vdi cac qudc gia 15 lang gieng ve nhflng gidi ban each hanh xif ma Trung Qud'c cho la cd the chap nhan dfldc Nhflng qud'c gia lang gieng cua Trung Qud'c chic chan cflng deu Id ngai dieu dd va rdi hp cflng se lam bat cfl nhflng gi cd the lam dUdc nham ngan chan Trung Qud'c trd ba chii khu viic Thiic vay, da cd nhflng bang chflng cu the che tha'y nhflng qud'c gia nhu An Dp, Nhat Ban, Nga cung nhU cac nUde nhd hdn nhU Australia, Han Qud'c da td Id lang trUdc uy the dang len ciia Trung Qud'c va dang tim each de ngan chan Cd the hp se dflng vao mdt liic lUdng lien minh My lanh dao de canh chflng va kiem che sii ldn manh cua Trung Qudc Ndi each khac, rat cd the xay kich ban ve viec mpt chudi qud'c gia ban dao hay hai dao se lien thil de day Trung Qud'c trd lai vj tri cfldng qud'c luc dja thay vi la mpt sieu cfldng hai dfldng nhu Bac Kinh dang md udc'^' Trdng chuyen tham Nhat Ban ciia Thii tudng An Dp tfl nam 2006, Thu tfldng Nhat Ban Shinzo Abe dd da de xuat vdi ngfldi ddng nhiem ve viec thay the "Tam giac chien lupc" bang 'Tfl giac chien Ifldc" gdm An Dp, My, Nhat Ban va Australia 'vj the cua An Dp dang cang dfldc tang cudng Tfl giac chien Ifldc mdi se cd y nghia dia - chinh trj dac biet, dd la sfl hpi tu cua cac nUdc cd t i m cd tai khu vUc chau A- Thai Binh DUdng Thang 5/2007, ben le mpt hpi nghj khu viic td chfle d Manila (Philippines), dai dien Australia, My va Nhat Bin - tam giac lien minh quan sfl quan trpng ciia My tai chau A - Thai Binh Dudng - da lin diu tien ngdi vao ban vdi phai doan An Dp de thao luan ve mdt khudn khd hpp tac chien lUpc quy md hdn Day cd the coi la budc khdi dau cho mdi quan he qud'c phdng bd'n ben va vi vay ngUdi ta cho ring, dUdng nhu da 16 bat dau hinh t h a n h the gong kim d canh Ddng - N a m n h a m vad T r u n g Qud'c? Gan hai t h a p nien sau chien t r a n h lanh ket thiic, nhieu n h a ])han tich eho r a n g the gidi tUdng lai se la mpt the gidi da cUc vdi sii ndi len ciia nhieu cudng qud'c mdi, nbUng My van la sieu eUdng Ap d i d va vj the ba quyen ciia My se cd the ked dai it n h a t 50 n a m hoac lau hdn nfla N h u n g nhflng thay ddi can can quyen lUc qudc te da dien r a n h a n h hdn tien lieu eua nhieu ngUdi, dfl dd la nhflng ngudi it ky vpng nha't vao sU suy giam quyen lUc ciia My Mdi day, Bao cao ciia Hdi ddng tinh bao qude gia My vdi tieu de "Xu hudng todn cdu 2025: Mot the gidi dd thay d6i'' '\ da n h a n djnh: Xu hu'dng ciia the gidi den n a m 2025 la da cUc va My phai chia se quyen lUc vdi mdt so' nUdc khac: "nUdc My se tac ddng m a n h den sU bien chuyen cua he thdng qudc te 15 - 20 n a m tdi hdn b a t ky mpt tac n h a n qudc te nao, nhUng My se cd it quyen liic hdn mdt the gidi da cUc so vdi thdi ky nhieu t h a p nien trUdc De sU di xud'ng tUdng ddl ve kinh te, va t r e n g mpt chflng miic nhd hdn, la ve sflc m a n h q u a n sii, nUdc My se khdng cdn cd nhflng uyen chuyen t r e n g sU liia chpn cac chinh sach" va den nam 2025, "My se chi la mdt nhUng tac n h a n chinh t r e n tru'dng qud'c te, cho du van se la cUdng qud'c m a n h nhat" Bae cao cflng dii bao trien vpng q u a n he N h a t B i n - T r u n g Qud'c thdi gian tdi cd the dien thee kich b a n sau: (1) N e n kinh te T r u n g Qud'c tiep tuc p h a t trien, T r u n g Qudc se d i y m a n h q u a n he vdi N h a t Ban, hai niidc tiep tuc tri q u a n he hflu nghi T r u n g Qudc se trd t h a n h thj trudng q u a n trung chd h a n g hdti N h a t Ban va N h a t Ban cd the de nghj ky Hiep djnh Thudng Ngliien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010 mai Tif (FTA) vdi T r u n g Qud'c Tuy nhien, linh viic a n ninh, lo ngai viec T r u n g Qud'c t a n g cudng sflc manh q u a n sU, N h a t B i n se tri q u a n he mat thiet vdi My va lien m i n h vdi H a n Qud'c (2) Q u a n he T r u n g - N h a t cd xu hudng xau di, theo dd cdng cupc p h a t trien kinh te cua T r u n g Qud'c bj k i e m che hoac N h a t B i n tU cho la bj T r u n g Qud'c uy hiep Do vay, N h a t Ban se lien minh vdi cac nudc va khu vUc khac, sif d u n g vfl khf t h e he mdi de t a n g cUdng sflc m a n h q u a n sU; ddng thdi vdi sU h a u t h u a n cua My, N h a t B i n se thfle day chfnh sach cd lap T r u n g Qud'c ve chfnh trj va kinh te (3) N h a t Ban tiep can T r u n g Qud'c Trong q u a n he ddng minh an ninh My - N h a t , neu sfl t h a m gia ciia My yeu di hoac N h a t Ban cam tha'y sfl t h a m gia ciia My yeu di, N h a t B i n cd the dfla vao T r u n g Qud'c nhflng van de khu vUc Trong bdi c i n h dd, vdi viec bao dam an ninh k h u viic c h a u A - Thai Binh Dudng x u n g q u a n h N h a t Ban, vai trd cua T r u n g Qud'c d k h u vUc linh vUc an ninh se trd n e n q u a n trpng hdn (4) Quan he T r u n g - My t r e n g linh vUc an ninh, chinh trj trd n e n dac biet m a t thie't Dieu cd nghia My se ghi n h a n sU hien dien q u a n sU ciia T r u n g Qud'c khu vUc, ddng thdi dieu chinh hoac c i t giam liic lupng My ddn t r u d k h u viic xung quanh T r u n g Qud'c N h a t B i n k h d n g cdn each lUa chpn nao khac, chi cd t h e " t h u a n theo chieu gid, diia vao T r u n g Qud'c" H a n Qud'c va mpt sd'nUdc ASEAN cflng phai nhfl vay Ddng thdi, theo b a n Bao cao, dien bien q u a n he T r u n g - An se d a t r a nhflng thach thfle nghiem trpng ddl vdi Hiep hpi cac Qudc gia Ddng N a m A (ASEAN) Cu the, nhflng lo ngai chien Ifldc ciia T r u n g Qud'c va An Dp ve a n ninh dudng bien va quyen tie'p can cac ngudn n a n g lUdng se tao ddng Nguyen Hodng Gidp, Phan Vdn Rdn - Ddc diem vd xu hifdng hien life cho cudc chay d u a vfl t r a n g tren bien Cupc canh t r a n h gifla lUc lUdng hai quan hai nudc se dien tai vflng bien An Dp Difdng, Bien Deng va nhflng diem ndng tren vflng bien chien lUdc cua khu vUc Ddng N a m A, dac biet la Eo bien Malaca,v.v Trong so' cac p h a n tfch ve tUdng lai ciia tUdng tac quyen lUc Ddng A, y kie'n eua Tien si H a r r y H a r d i n g , Giam dd'c trUdng Elliot thudc Vien Q u a n he qud'c te cua Trudng dai hpc George Washington (My) dUa tfl cudi t h a p nien 1990 la r a t dang chfl y Theo dd, k h u vUc Ddng A dang budc vao mot thdi ky mdi - thdi ky can bang quyen lUc chinh trj Trong cac mdi q u a n he t a m giae T r u n g - My - Nhat, cd the ce bat ky loai nao bd'n loai sau day.- "Mdi hda hpp gifla cac cudng qud'c", dd ta't ca cac nUdc deu dupe hUdng nhflng mdi q u a n he tUdng ddl hda hdp; "Hai chdng lai mdt", trdng dd hai trdng sd' ba qud'c gia h i n h t h a n h nen met lien minh tUdng ddl ben vflng che'ng lai ben thfl ba; "Mdt t a m giac lang man", dd mdt qud'c gia quye't djnh sU can ddl mdi q u a n he thfl nghjch gifla hai nUdc cdn lai; va "Mdt sU can b i n g ve quyen lUc", dd ta't ca ba nUdc deu dflng mpi phfldng each de theo dudi cac ldi ich trai ngflde n h a u ciia minh Cen n h a n xet ve q u a n he gifla cfldng que'c (My, T r u n g Qudc, Nga va N h a t Ban), H a r r y Harding chd r i n g cd k h i n a n g cd t h e xay r a nha't: i) Mpt sfl can b i n g ve quyen lUc, dd cac mdi q u a n he gifla cac qud'c gia tfldng ddl bien dpng, mdi nflde deu tim mpi phfldng each de gianh ldi the ddl vdi cac nflde khac; ii) Mdt tinh t r a n g p h a n cflc, de mpt p h a n nhdm cac qud'c gia h i n h t h a n h ddng 17 nen mdt lien minh hay lien ket ben vflng chdng lai nhflng nUdc cdn lai (ve ly thuyet, nhdm tfl cUdng, tinh t r a n g p h a n cUc cd the day ba qud'c gia vao the chdng lai mdt, hoac hai qud'c gia chdng lai hai); iii) Mdt mdi hda hdp gifla cac cudng qud'c, trdng dd ta't c i bd'n nUdc deu cd nhflng t r a n h chap mdt each dn hda va cflng cdng tac vdi n h a u de giai quyet nhflng van de qud'c te'^'" G i n day, ke hoach xay dUng true quyen liic mdi d Ddng A xung q u a n h mdi q u a n he tay ba gifla T r u n g Qud'c, N h a t Ban va H a n Qud'c b a t dau hinh t h a n h Tren thifc te, mdi q u a n he gifla nen kinh te ldn nha't Ddng A ludn la sU quan tam cua c i khu vUc bdi nd se quyet djnh chieu hudng van dpng cua kinh te khu vUc cflng n h u md h i n h hpp tac kinh te tai Ddng A Tuy nhien, cho dfl cd sU g i n ket chat che ve d i u tu, t h u d n g mai, ba nen kinh te van chUa tim dUdc each de cflng ngdi vdi n h a u bdi nhflng m a u t h u a n , nghi kj ve chinh trj, ljch sif va c i chien lUdc Trung Qudc va H a n Qudc v a n chUa the "gac lai qua khfl" vdi N h a t B i n van de ljch sif van chUa dupc giai quyet hoan toan B i n t h a n T r u n g Qud'c lai lo ngai mdi q u a n he chien lUpc gifla H a n Qud'c, N h a t Ban vdi My Trong dd, gifla ba nUde van cdn nhflng m a u t h u a n ve chii quyen bien, h i i d i o chUa dUdc giai quyet va hp cung cen phai tinh den cac n h a n te' ngdai khu viic la Nga, dac biet la My T h e e cac n h a p h a n tich, neu tien t r i n h hea g i i i va xich lai g i n n h a u gifla ba nen kinh te ldn nha't Ddng A t h a n h cdng, dd cd the la bflde khdi dau cila mpt tien trinh hpi n h a p khu vUc, vd'n ludn bj giang co bdi cac liic can tfl nhieu phia Ddng thdi, dd cflng la mdt tin hieu cho t h a y cac nen kinh te ldn d Ddng Nghien cdu Ddng Nam A 4/2010 18 A se khdng cdn n h a n nai xep m i n h vao cac k h u d n khd hpp tac dd cac nUdc nhd khdi xudng Nhu vay, cd t h e tha'y t h a p nien tdi can can quyen liic Ddng A chac chan se cdn thay ddi m a n h me T r a t tii quyen liic Ddng A chii yeu phu thupc sU tUdng tac va t r a n h gianh i n h hudng gifla cac nflde ldn: My, T r u n g Qud'c, N h a t Ban, Nga, An Dp Sdng c i n thay r i n g , N h a t Ban, Nga va An Dp deu ce k h i n a n g a n h hudng ldn den dja - chfnh trj k h u vUc, nhUng chua nUdc nad thiic sU t h e hien dupc Uu t h e vUdt trpi Sd vdi cac nUde cdn lai ke tren Vdi thiic lUc va tiem nang cua minh, N h a t Ban chUa dupc danh gia la met Ung cif vien thUc sU cupc d u a gianh vj tri ba chu Ddng A Nga mac dfl d a n g mud'n tim lai "hinh a n h ciia mpt sieu cfldng trUdc day", nhUng t r e n thiic te lai cd mdt sd' bieu hien cho tha'y hp chua q u a n t a m t h a t dflng mflc viec t h a m gia xac lap mdt t r a t tU Ddng A d thdi diem hien tai va t h a p nien tdi Cdn An Dp mud'n gia tang quyen liie d chau A va khdng the lam ngd trUdc t h a m vpng chien lUdc chau A cua T r u n g Qud'c, ddng thdi cd k h u y n h hudng ro ret la nga ve sii hdp tac chien lupc g i n gfli hdn vdi My Tuy nhien, t a m diem ciia vdng xday c a n h t r a n h quyen lUc tren t i n g bac cao nha't ciia t r a t tU Ddng A hien thiic chat dien gifla T r u n g Qudc va My Day se tiep tuc la xu hudng chu dao chi phdi mdi trUdng dja - chinh trj va t r a t tii quyen lUc khu vUc t h a p nien thfl hai the ky XXL/ USD, Trung Qudc xep thfl sau My, Nhat Ban, Dflc, Phap, Anh, Italia; de'n nam 2009 vdi mflc tang trifdng 8,5% GDP cua Trung Quo'c da vifdt qua 4,9 nghin ty USD, xa'p xi GDP cua Nhat Ban (khoang nghin ty USD), b i n g hdn 1/3 GDP cua My, VUdn len vi tri thU sau My, Nhat Ban Ngoai thifdng cfla Trung Qud'c ke't thuc nam 2009 da vUdt Dflc de xep thfl sau My Nam 2010 GDP cua Trung Qudc se vifdt Nhat Ban, chie'm vi trf thfl hai chi sau My Qiang Shen, Nhflng budc tie'n mdi quan he dang len gifla cac cifdng qudc, International Strategic Studies, 3nd Issue, 2005 p.54 Willy Lam, Trung Quo'c nd lUc trd thdnh sieu cUdng, Tap chi Kinh te Vien Dong (FEER), sd thang 5/2009 Viet Nam the gidi ciia thdp ky thUhai the ky XXI, www.tapchi thoidai.org, sd 3/2010 ••' Jeffrey Wasserstrom, Mdi quan he Trung Qudc-My ldn tdi mUc khong the dd dMc (China and the US: Too Big to Fail), The Time, 4-2-2010 The Changing Geopolitical Role of East Asia, Fernand Braudel Center, Binghamton University, Commentary No 143, Aug 15, 2004,http://fbc.binghamton edu/commentr.htm William W Keller & Thomas G Rawski, China's Rise and the Balance of Influence in Asia, Pittsburgh University Express, 2007 Xem: John J Mearsheimer, SU ldn mgnh ciia Trung Quo'c gdy bdt dn Current History, May 2006 National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025, CHU THICH Nam 2000 vdi quy mo GDP dat 1062,9 ty 10 Xem them: Harry Harding, My vd Trung Qudc td gidc chdu A, tham luan tai Hpi thao "Quan he Viet - My", Ha Npi, 21-2273/1998 ... vdi Trung Qud'c, thi An Dp va trj va trat tU quyen lUc Deng A hien nay, Nga thap nien dau the ky XXI cung ma cen day Nhat Bin xud'ng tang bac cd sfl thang tie'n rat nhanh thfle lflc sflc quyen... phUdng Mat hdp tac da ldn nay, Trung Qud'c cflng dfldc danh gia dang de'n mflc che dfl trdng thap nien dau the Cd sfl gia tang anh hUdng "mem" kha ky XXI, hai nflde thfldng xuyen cd nhflng nhanh... khac, xu hudng hda binh dn djnh, canh dd, mac dfl d Ddng A hien hflu rat hpp tac, hpi nhap va phat trien d Ddng A nhieu djnh che, td chfle hdp tac lien ke't dang song hanh dan xen vdi xung dot,