- Dieu tra thong tin thir cap: ghi chep lai thong tin thit cap tit cac bao cao,
chifng tit, so sach cua can bo thong ke, can bo dan so, can bo thuy lgi, can bo dja chinh sach bao... Cac thong tin thu cap dugc thu thap trong de tai nay la nhung thong tin lien quan den dieu kien tu nhien, kinh te- xa hoi cua huyen nhu: khi hau, dat dai, dan s o . ..
- Dieu tra thong tin sa ca'p thong qua phuong phap Phong van bang bang cau
hoi dugc lap san
+ Chon vung nghien cuu: De tai chon huyen Bac Quang lam dia diem nghien cuu. Bai vi, Bdc Quang la mot trong cac huyen hien co nhieu trang trai nha't tinh va cung la huyen cd tiem nang lan de phat trien trang trai.
+ Chon trang trai dieu tra: Tat ca 45 trang trai thuoc huyen Bdc Quang dirge chgn dd nghien curu. Day la cac trang trai co day du cac tieu chuan do Nha nude quy dinh.
+ Phieu dieu tra de dieu tra tung trang trai da dirge chuan bi tir truac gom cac noi dung :
* Nhung thong tin ve tinh hinh co ban cua trang trai: Ho ten, tudi, dan toe, giai tmh, trinh do van hoa, khoa hoc ky thuat, loai hinh trang trai, nam thanh lap, so khau, so lao dong, dien tfch dat dai, von san xuat, tinh hinh trang bi tu lieu san xuat.
* Nhung thong tin ve ket qua hoat dong san xuat kinh doanh cua trang trai nhu: Cac yeu to san xuat von, ky thuat, lao dong. Tinh hinh cac khoan chi phi, cac khoan thu ca hien vat va gia tri.
* Nhung thong tin ve y kien, nguyen vong, nhu cau, thuan lgi, kho khan cua chu trang trai. Sir giup d a cua chmh quyen dja phuong, cua nhan dan vdri van de trang trai, cac chmh sach cua Dang va Nha nuac v&
kinh te trang trai.
+ Phong van true tiep chu trang trai: Sau khi phat phieu dieu tra tien hanh phong van true tiep chu trang trai theo cac noi dung cua phieu dieu tra, va cac van de co lien quan den noi dung nghien curu cua de tai.
2.2.2.2. Phuong phap x u ly thong tin
Doi vai nhung thong tin thong qua tiep xuc, noi ehuyen vai cac chu trang trai va can bo xa chu yeu dugc su ly bang tay, vi nhung thong tin nay khong phurc tap
Doi vai nhung thong tin lien quan den nang suat, san lugng de’ tinh thu nhap, chi phi, hieu qua thi dugc tong hgp, xu ly tren may vi tmh bang phan mem EXCEL de dam bao chmh xac va tinh hieu qua cao.
3.2.2.3. Phuong phap phan tich thong tin
- Phuong phap phan to: Phan to la phan chia cac don vj dieu tra vao cac td (va cac tieu td) theo cac khoang cach to da duoc dinh san. Su dung phuong phap phan to de tim ra xu hudng tac dong cua cac yeu to nguyen nhan den yeu to ket qua.
M6i to se bao g6m cac don vj dieu tra co cung chung mot tmh chat theo tieu thu'c phan to nao do. Khoang cach to la do rong cua cac td. Trong luan van, cac tieu thu'c dung de phan to la: quy mo dien tich, loai hinh san xuat, gia trj gia tang.
Sau khi phan chia cac don vj tong the vao cac to, ta se tmh ra gia trj binh quan cua cac tieu thuc ket qua hay hieu qua kinh doanh. So sanh cac gia trj binh quan nay, se thay duoc anh huong bien dong cua tieu thu'c phan to tdi su thay doi trong gia trj cua tieu thurc ket qua. Dd kiem djnh do tin cay thong ke cua sir thay doi nay, trong trudng hop so don vj tong the cua mot hoac ca hai to <30, ta co the dung kiem djnh t (t-Test). Tham so t dung de kiem djnh (the test statistic t) duoc tmh theo cong thurc:
t = (*, - X2) - ( / / , - M2)
Lu$n van tot nghiep Do Thi Bich Loan
j 2f i o — + — v wi 2 / 2 _ (K, -1 )sf +(n2 - 1 > 22 /?, +«2 - 2 s, =. n, - 1 S 2 n2 -1 Trong do:
F , , .F, la so binh quan cua to 1 va to 2,
H,, / / , la ky vong toan cua tat ca cac don vj cua tong the chung vdi cac luong bien nhu cua to 1 va to 2,
n, va n2 la so don vj cua to 1 va to 2,
L u£n vMn tc ft nghiep — jsS — T)6 T h i B ic h L o o n
Kidm dinh thuc hien nhu sau: H(): (//, - M i ) = 0
H , : (//, - / / 2) * 0
Bac bo H„ n e u |/| > ' 0,,,„, + „2- 2 Vi;»,+».2 - 2 du(?c tra trong biing l-
Phuong phap phan to giup ta xac djnh duoc xu hudng thay ddi cac tieu thu’c ket qua do tieu thuc nguyen nhan gay ra chu khong luong hoa duoc muc do anh huong cua tung tieu thu’c nguyen nhan den su bien dong cua tieu thuc ket qua. Chang han, khi chu trang trai co trinh do hoc van tang them mot nam hoc tap thi gia trj san gia tang cua trang trai tang them bao nhieu dong hay khi chu trang trai hoc qua ldp quan ly kinh te trang trai thi gia tri gia tang se tang len bao nhieu so voi khi chua duoc hoc cac ldp tap huan nay?
Ben canh dd, phuong phap phan to khong true tiep dua ra (muon cd, ta phai tu tmh toan) cac thong tin de kiem dinh duoc do tin cay thong ke ve su khac nhau ve gia tri cua tieu thu’c ket qua giua cac td, tuc la kiem dinh do tin cay thong ke ve anh hudng cua tung tieu thuc nguyen nhan den su bien dong cua tieu thurc ket qua.
Ham hoi quy cd the giup khac phuc duoc cac nhuoc diem tren day cua phuong phap phan to. Do vay, trong khi nghien curu kinh te ngudi ta dung pho bien cac ham hoi quy, dac biet la ham san xuat dang Cobb- Douglas de nghien cuu su anh hudng cua nhung tieu thu'c nguyen nhan den tieu thuc ket qua.
- Ham san xuat Cobb - Douglas (ham CD) Khai niem ham san xuat:
"Ham san xuat la ham bieu di£n su phu thuoc cua ket qua san xuat kinh doanh ddi vdi cac yeu td chi phi bo ra trong qua trinh san xuat".
Ham san xuat cd dang:
Y = f(x „ x 2...xi,...x„ D„ D 2...Dj...Dm);
x, La cac yeu to nguyen nhan, hay mire dau tir cac yeu to san xuat dau vao (Bi£n doc lap).
Dj la cac bien gia dinh, D, thudng nhan cac gia trj la 0 hoac l(va cung la bien doc lap).
Ham san xuat Cobb-Douglas cd dang:
Y = a * x x , al. . . *x„a". e h'DI ...eh2D]... ehmDm(\)
Trong dd Y, x , , Dj da duoc djnh nghTa d tren.
Ham san xuat Cobb - Douglas duoc goi theo ten cua nha kinh te P.H.Douglas va nha thong ke C.W.Cobb trong cong trinh nghien cuu ve kinh te My tu 1899 den 1922. Hai ong da tim ra ham sd san xuat cua nen kinh te My trong giai doan dd la:
Q = K*’ 75 L025
Trong dd:
K: Von ky thuat. L: Lao dong