... and affiliated pro shops. It plans to
28
Financial Modeling
with Crystal
Balland Excel
JOHN CHARNES
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
10 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
■
Crystal Ball ... 249
Glossary 251
References 255
Index 263
Financial Modeling
with Crystal
Balland Excel
JOHN CHARNES
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Analyzing CrystalBall Forecasts
27
PRESENTING THE RESULTS
The ... Web site at
www .wiley. com.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
Charnes, John Martin.
Financial modelingwithcrystalballandExcel / John M. Charnes.
p. cm.— (Wiley finance series)
‘‘Published...
... Assumptions 36
Crystal Ball s Basic Distributions 36
Using Historical Data to Choose Distributions 54
Specifying Correlations 63
vii
10 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
■
Crystal Ball gives ... Simulation, and proceedings coeditor (1996) and
program chair (2002) for the Winter Simulation Confererences.
xvii
Financial Modeling
with Crystal
Balland Excel
JOHN CHARNES
John Wiley & ... approximation to reality.
4 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
In short, probability and statistics help you weigh the potential rewards and
punishments associated with the decisions you...
... 18 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
FIGURE 2.5 Frequency distributions depicting negative (Skewness =−2), positive (+2), and near-zero
(0.02) skewness at top left, top right, and ... more.
26 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
FIGURE 2.15 Overlay chart comparing accumulated value after 30 years of retirement savings for two
different allocations into stocks and bonds ... Figure 2.2, the
possible values range from $0 to $15 million, and are broken up into 15 equal
14 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
FIGURE 2.3 Cumulative frequency chart showing accumulated...
... to offer for sale in its retail stores and affiliated pro shops. It plans to
28
32 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
FIGURE 3.4 Defining the demand assumption for the Alaskan Golf purchase ... section, we will add assumptions and a forecast to the
deterministic model in AKGolf.xls to create a stochastic model.
30 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
TABLE 3.1 Stochastic assumptions ... selecting and specifying CrystalBall assumptions.
Building a CrystalBall Model
31
FIGURE 3.2 Distribution gallery showing the triangular and
normal distributions. To see all of CrystalBall s...
... 60 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
This section gives a brief description of the procedures used by CrystalBall for
fitting distributions. Suppose a random sample of ... distribution.
66 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
cells B2:B78 and C2:C78, respectively, in the spreadsheet PearsonSpearman.xls.
Cell H2 is lognormal(1.18,0.36), and cell I2 is lognormal(1.13,0.22).
The ... from the fact that it represents a
random variable whose natural logarithm follows the normal distribution. Like the
68 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
FIGURE 4.33 Calculate Correlation...
... second quarter of year, and abandon the
project if three consecutive quarters of cash flow below −$6 occur; and (2) expand if
88 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
FIGURE 5.21 Step ... through K are hidden.
94 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
different values for Abandon Point and seven different values for Expansion Point.
If we used more values with Decision Table, ... that CrystalBall checks and thus
speeds up the analysis.
86 FINANCIALMODELINGWITHCRYSTALBALLAND EXCEL
To see the decision variable for threshold value of cash flow for expanding the
project,...
... map on an island, you will want
lots of detail for the land and less in the sea region. However, game engines such
as Unity, UDK, and Ogre3 Dare are not easily adapted to deal with such variability ... will be done with the Terrain tools. Working from the left-hand
side to the right-hand side, the second row of icons are: Create (zone), Modiers,
Selection, Texturing, Details, and Water. This ... with the creation of zones, we edit our heightmaps, paint and texture the
landscape before adding landscape features such as roads, rivers, and vegetation.
Finally, we export everything. Depending...
... through code and test
ã Update the process with a few new tricks we’ve learned over the years, and fully lever-
age some advances in modeling tools
ã Update the book to be current with the new ... descriptions with some sort of storyboard, line drawing,
screen mockup, or GUI prototype.
2. Review the use cases, domain model, and screen mockups/GUI prototypes with end
users, stakeholders, and marketing ... provide a clue as to
the nature of the error, and then invite you to scrutinize the diagram (and the relevant review
chapter) and figure out what’s wrong with it.
Trying to figure out what’s wrong...
... pedantic note on standards: this book makes an effort to comply with the ISO C99 standard and the IEEE
POSIX standard. The C99 standard includes some features that do not appear in the great majority ... R
2
and z ∈ C’. You could leave the reader to guess at what you mean by x by its
first use, but some readers would misunderstand, and your referee would wonder
why you did not just come out and ... exceptions below.
3
You can use all
of the usual operations: , and . As per basic algebraic custom, and are
evaluated before
and , so is seven, and is five.
TWO TYPES OF DIVISION There are two ways to...
... 248
A1 Order of operations 264
A2 Multiplication and division with signed numbers 265
A3 Powers and indices 267
A4 Logarithms 272
A5 Calculus 273
withExcel applications
Dawn E. Lorimer
Charles ... with symbols and
numbers is concerned, and even students might like a refresher. Fixed interest
arithmetic is a excellent way to do this, for the math is not all that complicated in
itself, and ... journal
article in finance or financial economics. But the first problem is that busy
Preface
WHY READ THIS BOOK?
29
19
Chapter One. Compounding and Discounting
1.5 Linear interpolation
In many financial...
... full
number and let Excel format it to look like you wish. The manner in which Excel
displays numbers will not affect any calculations. Regardless of the format, Excel
always stores numbers with full ... cells that we want included, andExcel inserts them into the
formula. Move to C7 and we will enter the formula using the pointer mode. First,
type = which places Excel in edit mode. Now, instead ... can remedy this by using Excel s alignment options.
Excel provides for seven different horizontal alignments within a cell. We can have
the text (or numbers) aligned with the left or right sides...