financial modeling with crystal ball pdf

... shops. It plans to 28 Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel JOHN CHARNES John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 10 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL ■ Crystal Ball gives approximate ... portfolio. Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Introduction 5 FIGURE 1.1 Simple profit model in Profit.xls. Cells C5:C7 are defined as Crystal Ball assumptions. Cell C11 is a Crystal Ball ... 249 Glossary 251 References 255 Index 263 Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel JOHN CHARNES John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Analyzing Crystal Ball Forecasts 27 PRESENTING THE RESULTS The...

Ngày tải lên: 18/02/2014, 07:20

... 28 Simulation Modeling Process 28 Defining Crystal Ball Assumptions 29 Running Crystal Ball 32 Sources of Error 33 Controlling Model Error 35 CHAPTER 4 Selecting Crystal Ball Assumptions 36 Crystal Ball s ... Confererences. xvii Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel JOHN CHARNES John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Contents Preface xi Acknowledgments xv About the Author xvii CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 Financial Modeling ... Data to Choose Distributions 54 Specifying Correlations 63 vii 10 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL ■ Crystal Ball gives approximate rather than exact solutions. This ‘‘limitation’’...

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... click Start. Crystal Ball will run 2,000 trials for each of the nine allocations. When Crystal Ball finishes its decision table analysis, you should see a new worksheet with nine Crystal Ball forecasts ... 30 percent chance that you will actually accumulate the mean wealth or more. 26 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.15 Overlay chart comparing accumulated value after 30 years ... Wealth greater than the corresponding monetary value on the horizontal axis. 12 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.1 Spreadsheet segment from Accumulate.xls showing accumulated...

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... simulation with Crystal Ball can be regarded as a sophisticated form of ‘‘what-if’’ analysis, as the program will keep track of all these changes during its run. Further, with Crystal Ball it is ... cell first Crystal Ball needs to recognize the location as a number cell. In Crystal Ball 7.2 and higher, when you attempt to define an assumption in an empty cell, a value of 0 Building a Crystal Ball ... and specifying Crystal Ball assumptions. Building a Crystal Ball Model 31 FIGURE 3.2 Distribution gallery showing the triangular and normal distributions. To see all of Crystal Ball s distributions,...

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... 60 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL This section gives a brief description of the procedures used by Crystal Ball for fitting distributions. Suppose ... Figure 4.24. For example, we chose to rank with the FIGURE 4.27 Goodness-of-fit statistics for data in file Lognormal.xls. 52 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 4.19 Mixture model ... the 68 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 4.33 Calculate Correlation Coefficient dialog for cell H2 in file PearsonSpearman.xls. FIGURE 4.34 First step in using Batch Fit with...

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... if 88 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 5.21 Step 3 in using the Decision Table tool with the Project.xls model. FIGURE 5.22 Results from using the Decision Table tool with ... > 0) ≈ 40 percent. FIGURE 5.13 Crystal Ball forecast for NPV1 for the case of no flexibility in the Project.xls model. 82 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 5.14 Spreadsheet ... are truncated 71 84 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 5.17 CB forecast window from Project.xls model showing the possibility of expansion. The Crystal Ball output in Figure...

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... for a complete list of unsupported functions and the Crystal Ball Web site for updates on this feature. 102 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6.6 Run Preferences Speed tab. Here ... 104 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL and wish to do things Excel doesn’t already do, or you wish to do extra processing during each trial of the simulation, see the Crystal Ball ... here. FIGURE 6.8 Run Preferences Statistics tab. 96 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6.1 Run Preferences Trials tab. Crystal Ball executes the simulation cycle automatically,...

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... cash flow) 112 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7.6 ScooterNPV.xls spreadsheet model. In the next section, we use this model to demonstrate the use of Crystal Ball s Tornado ... deterministically, the Sensitivity Analysis feature of Crystal Ball obtains its results through a statistical 120 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7.15 NPV Forecast for ScooterSimulation.xls. FIGURE ... customer if he is retained that year. These are 106 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7.1 Spreadsheet segment to model annuity with deterministic cash flows of −$100 at the end...

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... This emphasizes the need to come up with a good model for defining sales assumptions. 128 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 8.4 Crystal Ball model for income statement in Sengupta2.xls. ... Cells J6, J7, J10,andJ12 are Crystal Ball assumptions, and I3 is a forecast. FIGURE 8.5 Tornado chart for Crystal Ball model in Sengupta2.xls. The values of the Crystal Ball assumptions were varied ... 8.6 Sensitivity analysis chart for Crystal Ball model in Sengupta2.xls. CRYSTAL BALL SENSITIVITY CHART Figure 8.6 shows a sensitivity chart for the Crystal Ball model for 2002–2006 for the Vitex...

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

... planners an idea of how to use Crystal Ball and OptQuest to demonstrate to their clients the risks involved in retirement planning. 136 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL 5 percent. The ... following mathematical programming problem: 138 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 9.4 Optimal asset allocations and sustainable withdrawal rates for two planning horizons. Horizon ... stochastic, remaining lifetime horizon, the estimated median value of her 134 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 9.3 Spearman correlation matrix for annual total returns during...

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

Ngày tải lên: 05/07/2014, 18:20

Ngày tải lên: 09/12/2013, 19:15

... phỏng ta có thể Phân tích rủi ro bằng Crystal Ball Trần quang Trung 1 GIỚI THIỆU MÔ PHỎNG BẰNG CRYSTAL BALL 1. Mô phỏng Monte Carlo bằng Crystal Ball Ví dụ: Bạn định mua khu nhà phức ... tin cậy vào hộp Certainty và nhấn Enter, Crystal Ball sẽ điều chỉnh mốc còn lại để được khoảng tin cậy theo yêu cầu Phân tích rủi ro bằng Crystal Ball Trần quang Trung 2 2. Cách định ... Choùn phaõn phoỏi thớch hụùp Phân tích rủi ro bằng Crystal Ball Trần quang Trung 24 Phân tích rủi ro bằng Crystal Ball Trần quang Trung 20 Ta cũng có thể chọn khoảng...

Ngày tải lên: 20/01/2014, 23:20

... Verilog. Please purchase PDF Split-Merge on www.verypdf.com to remove this watermark. ANALOG BEHAVIORAL MODELING WITH THE VERILOG-A LANGUAGE Please purchase PDF Split-Merge on www.verypdf.com to remove ... analog and mixed-signal systems with the Verilog-A language. Please purchase PDF Split-Merge on www.verypdf.com to remove this watermark. Analog Behavioral Modeling With the Verilog-A Language 5.5 QPSK ... and John Wynen of Research In Motion. xvi Please purchase PDF Split-Merge on www.verypdf.com to remove this watermark. ANALOG BEHAVIORAL MODELING WITH THE VERILOG-A LANGUAGE by Dan FitzPatrick Apteq...

Ngày tải lên: 26/01/2014, 19:20

... and completes our financial discussion with the creation of a Company Balance Sheet and the application of financial ratio analysis to our modeling results. Prerequisites The financial models ... 193 CHAPTER 11 Modeling Valuation and Investment with the FIN Model 215 CHAPTER 12 Financial Reporting and Analysis Using the FIN Model 243 INDEX 269 www.it-ebooks.info Pro Excel Financial Modeling: ... AND FINANCIAL MODELING FOR TECHNOLOGY STARTUPS 17 Thinking Critically About the Business and Financial Model Developing a financial model is an excellent exercise in critical thinking. Modeling...

Ngày tải lên: 07/03/2014, 18:20

... differentially affects reporting by the poor and rich, with doctor visits declining with income when measured using a weekly recall period but increasing with income when using a monthly recall period. 9 This ... sophisticated features of ADePT are indicated below with an asterisk. Users not familiar with the literature may wish to focus initially on the sections without an asterisk. Except where stated, the ... Sector Inequalities with an Application to Health Equity and Financial Protection: Part I PART I Health Outcomes, Utilization, and Benefit Incidence Analysis Health Equity and Financial Protection Adam...

Ngày tải lên: 22/03/2014, 16:21

... important concepts for anyone involved with financial transactions. 1.3 Simple interest, bills and other money market securities The use of simple interest in financial markets is confined mainly ... policy. Part I. Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange 42 Financial Modeling for Managers What nominal rate compounded every month will equate with an effective annual rate of 6.16778%? In other words, ... would even want to. But pretty much all of us in the financial world will sooner or later have to come to grips with two things. The first is basic financial math and models. The second is spreadsheeting....

Ngày tải lên: 27/05/2014, 02:37