Kinh nghiệm điều hành chính sách tiền tệ của Thái Lan, Indonesia và hàm ý chính sách đối với Việt Nam.Kinh nghiệm điều hành chính sách tiền tệ của Thái Lan, Indonesia và hàm ý chính sách đối với Việt Nam.Kinh nghiệm điều hành chính sách tiền tệ của Thái Lan, Indonesia và hàm ý chính sách đối với Việt Nam.Kinh nghiệm điều hành chính sách tiền tệ của Thái Lan, Indonesia và hàm ý chính sách đối với Việt Nam.Kinh nghiệm điều hành chính sách tiền tệ của Thái Lan, Indonesia và hàm ý chính sách đối với Việt Nam.
VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES BUI THI HANH “EXPERIENCE IN OPERATING MONETARY POLICY OF THAILAND, INDONESIA AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM” Major: International economics Code : 9.31.01.06 ABSTRACT OF DOCTORAL THESIS IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS HANOI – 2021 The Thesis is completed at: GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Supervisors: Dr To Thi Anh Duong Assoc Prof Dr To Kim Ngoc Reviewer 1: PGS.TS Dỗn Kế Bơn Reviewer 2: PGS.TS Bùi Tất Thắng Reviewer 3: PGS.TS Trịnh Thị Hoa Mai The thesis will be defended at Thesis Assessment Council at Graduate Academy of Social Sciences At , date … month … year … The thesis can be found at: INTRODUCTION Urgency of topic Monetary policy is a part of the State's economic policy system to carry out the macro management of the economy in order to achieve socioeconomic goals in each certain period Monetary policy is the totality of methods and ways that the Central Bank uses to influence the money supply or interest rates to achieve goals such as price stability, economic growth and job security Over the years, Vietnam's economy has overcome the impacts of the global financial crisis as well as the complicated fluctuations of the world economy That confirms a part of Vietnam's ability to develop and administer macro policies, including monetary policy However, the macroeconomic instability in the period before 2012 also showed that monetary policy revealed many limitations in construction and management One of the reasons is that Vietnam pursues a multi-target monetary policy, which focuses on the growth target rather than the inflation target As a result of that management, Vietnam has had to go through periods of unstable inflation In the period from 2012 to 2020, although the management of monetary policy of Vietnam has undergone many changes and achieved remarkable achievements, however, the management of monetary policy of Vietnam There are also many limitations such as: the transmission mechanism between the system of goals is not clear, the operating target is mainly volume or a combination of volume and interest rate, so the State Bank has difficulty in pursue many operating objectives, leading to limit the impact of monetary policy; some administrative measures are still used; SBV's operating interest rates (base rate and refinancing rate) have little impact on interbank market interest rates, as interbank interest rates are often influenced by excess or shortage of available capital of commercial banks… It is said that from 2012 onwards, Vietnam has well controlled inflation However, some other opinions believe that high inflation may return in the near future because of the volatile world economic situation and if the operating of the national monetary policy is not effective From that fact, the question is what operating mechanism should monetary policy in Vietnam be governed by and should learn from the experience of other countries' monetary policy management so that the monetary policy of Vietnam will practice more effectively, contributing to macroeconomic stability in the coming time Thailand and Indonesia are ASEAN member countries, with a similar level of development and economic environment to Vietnam Thailand and Indonesia are the countries that experienced the crisis and suffered heavily from the Asian financial and monetary war (1997–1998) However, both countries have made comprehensive reforms after the crisis Among those reforms, there is the reform of monetary policy management according to the monetary policy mechanism of inflation targeting, the monetary policy that Vietnam has implicitly used from 2012 to now (in 2021) It is thanks to those reforms that Thailand and Indonesia have overcome the crisis and achieved certain achievements in their economic development Therefore, the study of the experience of operating monetary policy in general and the experience of operating under the monetary policy mechanism of inflation targeting in particular of Thailand and Indonesia in order to draw policy implications for Vietnam has scientific value in terms of theory and practice Stemming from the above reasons, the topic "Experience in operating monetary policy of Thailand, Indonesia and policy implications for Vietnam" is selected for research Study purpose and mission 2.1 Study purpose: The purpose of the study is to study the experience of managing monetary policy of Thailand and Indonesia From there, the thesis gives policy implications for Vietnam in operating monetary policy 2.2 Study mission: (1) Review the research on monetary policy management and experience in monetary policy management of Thailand and Indonesia to determine the research gap of the thesis; (2) Systematize the theoretical basis for operating monetary policy; (3) Study the activities of monetary policy management such as determining objectives, using 2.3.tools, selecting transmission channels and operating organization of Thailand and Indonesia in the period after the Asian financial crisis (1997 – 1998) to 2020 to clarify the outstanding policy decisions in the management of monetary policy of these two countries; (4) Overview and evaluate the current situation of monetary policy management of Vietnam in the period of 2009 - 2020; (5) Compare with the monetary policy management of Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam, thereby drawing lessons for Vietnam from the monetary policy management of Thailand and Indonesia; (6) Propose policy implications to improve the efficiency of monetary policy management in Vietnam, with a vision to 2030 Object and scope of study 3.1 Object of study: The research object of the thesis is the experience in operating policy management in Thailand and Indonesia and the practice of monetary policy in Vietnam 3.2 Scope of study: Regarding content: The thesis studies the experience in operating monetary policy administration of Thailand and Indonesia from the perspective of studying the activities of the monetary authority in performing the task of monetary policy operating and drawing policy implications for Vietnam; Regarding time period: The thesis studies the experience in managing monetary policy of Thailand and Indonesia at important turning points in the period from the Asian financial crisis (1997 3.3.- 1998) to 2020 In particular, the author focuses on study the monetary policy management of Thailand from May 2000 and Indonesia from May 1999 - the time when these two countries applied inflation targeting monetary policy in operating monetary policy - to 2020 The thesis also analyzes and evaluates the current situation of monetary policy management in Vietnam from 2009 (after the global financial crisis) to 2020; Proposals and policy recommendations with a vision to 2030; Regarding setting: The experience of operating monetary policy to draw policy implications that the thesis research is limited to Thailand and Indonesia and applied to Vietnam Research method and methodology 4.1 Methodology 4.2 Research Method 4.3 * Study approach: The thesis is approached from a specialized perspective of International Economics Accordingly, on the basis of studying Thailand and Indonesia's experience in operating monetary policy in terms of activities: determining objectives, using tools, selecting transmission channels and organizing monetary policy operations, the thesis outlines Lessons learned in the administration of monetary policy of Thailand and Indonesia to draw policy implications for Vietnam in operating monetary policy 4.4 * Data Decimal Method: The source of the author's data used in the thesis is mainly a secondary data source, published by the State Bank of Vietnam, the General Statistics Office, the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the Ministry of Finance Author also access data from highly reliable information sources such as the website of the Central Bank of Thailand, the website of the Central Bank of Indonesia and the websites of international financial institutions such as the IMF, WB, and ADB …The author also consults the information provided from domestic and foreign book and document sources over the years, published scientific works, legal documents, statistical information to deal with the problem Compare, contrast and verify the information in order to access the most accurate information to serve the research of the thesis's contents In-depth studies are also selectively referenced to be used as research papers 4.5 * Research methodology: With the research object indicated, the qualitative research method was determined to be the appropriate method used in the thesis The qualitative method was used to deeply understand the contents of monetary policy management in terms of identifying goals, using tools, selecting transmission channels, and organizing monetary policy operations of Thailand and Indonesia to detect and identify Lessons learned are relevant to Vietnam from which policy implications are drawn 4.6 The research methods that can be used by the thesis are mainly methodological analysis, theoretical synthesis; methods of analysis and synthesis of experience; comparative and descriptive statistical methods New scientific contributions of the thesis: (1) Systematizing and clarifying the theoretical basis of monetary policy management, the approach from the perspective of monetary policy management is a totality of activities that not only include building a monetary policy framework (defining monetary policy) objectives, use of tools, selection of transmission mechanisms) which includes the following activities: organizing the apparatus and establishing the responsibility and authority of that apparatus in the implementation of monetary policy; (2) Analyze and clarify the achieved results, limitations and causes of limitations in the management of monetary policy in Thailand, especially the period when these two countries applied the monetary policy framework of inflation targeting The thesis also analyzes and clarifies the actual situation of monetary policy administration in Vietnam in the period of 2009 - 2020; (3) On the basis of assessing the practice of monetary policy administration in Vietnam and lessons learned in monetary policy administration of Thailand and Indonesia, the thesis provides policy implications for Vietnam to contribute to improving the effectiveness of monetary policy in the near future, with a vision to 2030 Theoretical and practical significance of the thesis * Theoretical significance: The thesis contributes to supplementing and developing the theoretical framework on operating monetary policy by building a more comprehensive perspective on monetary policy management and a fuller and deeper system of factors affecting that operating efficiency * Practical significance: The thesis clarifies the basis for choosing to learn from Thailand and Indonesia's monetary policy management experience and the basis for proposing policy implications for Vietnam in monetary policy management from the lessons of Thailand's monetary policy management experience and Indonesia Study structure: The thesis includes chapters 7.1 The research process of the thesis is shown in Figure below 7.2 Figure 1: Research process of the thesis Overview of studies on operating monetary policy 7.3 7.4 7.5 Experience in operating monetary policy of Thailand and Indonesia - Policy implications for Vietnam Theoretical basis for operating monetary policy Operating monetary policy Influential factors 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 Sele cting monetary policy objectives 7.10 Sel 7.11 7.12 ecting a monetary policy tool rganizat ion of executive activities Se lection of monetary policy transmissio n channel O 7.13 Su 7.14 T bjective he factors objective factors 7.15 7.16 7.17 in mon 7.18 Experience in operating monetary policy of Thailand and Indonesia 7.19 7.20 7.21 Macroeconomic overview The process of operating monetary policy Monetary policy since applying inflation targeting Lessons from experience in operating monetary policy 7.22 Achievemen ts and limitations Actual situation of monetary policy management in Vietnam 7.23 7.24 7.25 7.26 7.27 Policy implication in operatin monetary policy 7.28 7.29 7.30 7.31 The operating context of monetary policy 7.32 Chapter 1: OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH ON OPERATING MONETARY POLICY 1.1 Research works on operating monetary policy 1.1.1 Research on operating monetary policy in the context of international economic integration 1.1.2 Research on the effectiveness of monetary policy 1.1.3 Research on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy 1.1.4 Research tools of monetary policy 1.1.5 Research on the monetary policy framework for inflation targeting 1.2 Studies on operating monetary policy in Thailand and Indonesia 1.3 Assessment of status of research related to the thesis 1.3.1 The results that the thesis inherits 1.3.2 Research gap 7.33 On the theoretical aspect: Most of the studies only introduced the monetary policy concept and studied the contents based on the monetary policy framework, but did not show a profoundly and comprehensively the concept and contents of monetary policy administration Therefore, the research to clarify what monetary policy management is and fully and comprehensively developing the contents of monetary policy management is the problem to be solved by the thesis The thesis also analyzes more systematically the factors affecting the effectiveness of monetary policy management - content that previous studies only studied individually 7.34 In terms of practice: Studies show that inflation targeting monetary policy (the monetary policy framework that Thailand and Indonesia are applying) is a monetary policy framework that is increasingly being applied by countries, especially in the Asia-Pacific region Some works also mention the experience of monetary policy management of Thailand and Indonesia in their research However, there has not been a separate and systematic study on the experience of monetary policy operating in Thailand and Indonesia The studies have not shown that, in the operation of monetary policy of Thailand and Indonesia, there are achievements, limitations, and causes of that The studies also have not provided the basis to show that it is necessary and appropriate to study the experience of operating monetary policy in Thailand and Indonesia to draw lessons from Vietnam's experience This is the research gap that this thesis aims at 7.35 The results of the researches have provided a number of solutions and recommendations to improve the efficiency of monetary 2.3.8 channel that is expected This channel is expressed through the level of public expectations in the activities they participate in when having the impact of monetary policy tools From there, influence their behavior and decisions 2.3.9 d, Executive organization: The organization and administration of monetary policy within the framework of inflationtargeting monetary policy is implemented by Thailand through: establishing a decentralized institution to administer monetary policy, building a policy implementation process, building building macroeconomic forecasting models, administering appropriate exchange rate policies to achieve the set objectives, and stipulating accountability in monetary policy management 3.2 Operation of monetary policy of Indonesia 3.2.1 Overview of Indonesia's macroeconomics 3.2.2 The process of operating Indonesia's monetary policy 2.3.10 The monetary policy of Indonesia is divided into three main phases as follows: 2.3.11 -Before 1999: Indonesia operated an anchor monetary policy with an exchange rate band based on information gathering (Crawling Peg Regime) This period is also divided into two periods: before the Asian financial crisis (1997-1998) and the period during the crisis 2.3.12 -From 1999 to 2005: Indonesia applied monetary policy with soft inflation- targeting (implicitly) anchored with money supply (Soft inflation-targeting regime with a monetary target), taking base money as the target 2.3.13 -From 2005 to 2020: Indonesia officially applies the monetary policy framework for inflation targeting (Formal Inflation Targeting) During this period, Indonesia adjusted the traditional inflation targeting monetary policy to operate a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy at the end of 2008 and officially applied and maintained a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy from 2009 to present (2020) 3.2.3 Operating activities of Indonesia's monetary policy in the period 1999 2020 2.3.14 a, Determining the goals of monetary policy: After the aftermath of the Asian financial and monetary crisis, the management of monetary policy had a big change, which was the promulgation of a new Central Bank Law in May/ 1999 The new law states that the sole objective of Indonesia's monetary policy is to pursue and maintain a stable value of the rupiah, and at the same time, provides a monetary policy framework for the Bank of Indonesia to achieve price stability During the implementation of monetary policy, the Central Bank is free to decide 2.3.15 on the inflation target to be achieved (independent target) and freely choose monetary instruments to achieve this goal (independent instrument) 2.3.16 b, Using monetary policy tools: The main monetary policy tool used by Indonesia is the policy interest rate to influence monetary policy objectives instead of using open market operational tools and required reserves are the main tool in the previous period The Bank of Indonesia builds a key policy interest rate, with clear announcement effect, carefully selected on the basis of thorough research on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, that is the 7-Day Reversal Repo (BI7DRR) interest rate ) The policy rate is decided monthly during the Board of Governors meeting Based on the difference between current inflation and target inflation, the Bank of Indonesia adjusts the policy rate to increase or decrease in each period to achieve its target 2.3.17 c, Selection of transmission mechanism: Let monetary policy tools affect economic activities in order to achieve the ultimate goal of inflation Adjusting the 7-day reverse repo rate (BI7DRR) to affect inflation was identified by the Bank of Indonesia as the monetary policy transmission mechanism Adjustments to 7-day reverse repo rate affect inflation through channels: interest rate channel, credit channel, exchange rate channel, asset price channel and expectation channel 2.3.18 d, Executive organization: The organization and administration of monetary policy is strictly regulated by Indonesia and adjusted appropriately from time to time According to Act No 23 of 1999 on Central Bank of Indonesia, as amended by Act No of 2004 and Act of No of 2009, Article 4, Paragraph stipulates that: Central Bank of Indonesia is an independent organization, without any government involvement and third-party interference, unless expressly provided for in applicable laws and regulations Central bank independence goes hand in hand with transparency and accountability 3.3 Monetary policy management results of Thailand and Indonesia 3.3.1 The period before Thailand and Indonesia applied inflation targeting monetary policy 2.3.19 Before officially applying the monetary policy management mechanism within the framework of the inflation targeting monetary policy, Thailand applied monetary policy associated with two mechanisms: a fixed exchange rate mechanism and a monetary targeting mechanism aimed at the money supply level Indonesia operates an anchored monetary policy with a band- based exchange rate regime on the basis of information gathering (Crawling Peg Regime) and a soft inflation-targeting regime with a monetary target (implicitly), take the base money (Base Money) as the target However, the application of the above monetary policy frameworks has revealed many inadequacies when the macroeconomic context changes, leading to the fact 2.3.20 that the monetary policy of Thailand and Indonesia has not helped Thailand achieve the growth as well as the monetary policy objectives set On the contrary, it has also been pointed out as one of the main reasons why Thailand and Indonesia suffered heavily from the 19971998 Asian financial crisis 3.3.2 The period since Thailand and Indonesia applied inflation targeting monetary policy 2.3.21 During more than 20 years of implementing inflation targeting monetary policy, Thailand and Indonesia are considered as successful countries in applying this monetary policy framework The results of applying this policy are shown in: (1) price stability, (2) economic growth, and (3) more stable interest rates and exchange rates In addition, the inflation targeting monetary policy also has a positive effect on other issues such as helping to improve the quality of banking operations, improving the governance system and transparency of the financial systems of Thailand and Indonesia 2.3.22 Chapter 4: CURRENT SITUATION OF MONEY POLICY OPERATION OF VIETNAM 4.1 Current status of monetary policy operations in Vietnam 4.1.1 Building a target system of monetary policy 2.3.23 a, Final goal: The ultimate goal of Vietnam's monetary policy is determined depending on the characteristics and requirements of the economy in each period However, the two core objectives of monetary policy are still price stability (expressed in inflation) and economic growth 2.3.24 b, Intermediate target: The SBV mainly uses the indicator of total means of payment (M2) and credit to the economy as an intermediate target in monetary policy management From the end of 2011, the SBV combined with the allocation and control of credit growth targets for each credit institution, and at the same time, gradually experimented with the combination of price targets (interest rates and exchange rates) intermediate targets through the orientation from the beginning of the year on the increase and decrease of M2, credit, interest rates and the rate of exchange rate adjustment 2.3.25 c, Operational objectives: Since 2009 up to now, in addition to the operational target of MB, the State Bank has gradually combined using the target of available capital and the interest rate on the interbank market as additional targets The interbank rate is becoming more and more important 4.1.2 Using monetary policy tools 2.3.26 The State Bank has effectively used various tools such as reserve requirements, interest rate tools, open market operations, exchange rates, credit lines and a number of others Monetary policy tools are used flexibly and gradually switched from using direct monetary policy tools to indirect tools 4.1.3 Selecting a monetary policy transmission channel 2.3.27 The SBV mainly uses three channels of monetary policy transmission, namely credit channel, interest rate channel and exchange rate channel Channels of "asset prices" and "public expectations and beliefs" are not clearly expressed in Vietnam 4.1.4 Executive organization 2.3.28 In Vietnam, the guiding regulations and principles on monetary policy operations are prescribed by the Law on the State Bank of Vietnam 1997 and the Law on the State Bank amended in 2010 On that basis, many documents guiding the management of monetary policy was born, creating a legal basis for the State Bank to operate monetary policy 4.2 General assessment of the operation of monetary policy in Vietnam 4.2.1 Achievements: Vietnam's monetary policy in the past time has had some remarkable results, which are: First, Vietnam's monetary policy target system has been basically formed, along with step-by-step testing experiment with harmonious combination between volume management (money supply) and price (interest rate operation); Second, the management of monetary policy tools has changed from being passive to deal with situations to actively leading the market; Third, the use of transmission channels in operating monetary policy has had a fundamental shift from the selection of channels for operating according to volume (money volume) to gradually changing to operating according to price (interest rate); Fourth, credit growth is low but economic growth is still guaranteed; the efficiency of credit capital flows and the economy have been improved markedly in the direction of focusing on encouraging the credit flow of commercial banks to the priority areas of the economy; Fifth, in the operation of monetary policy of the State Bank, especially in recent years, there has been a closer coordination with fiscal policy to achieve the objectives of the economy 4.2.2 Limitations and causes of limitations in the management of Vietnam's monetary policy 4.2.3 a, Limitations in operating monetary policy of Vietnam: Firstly, the ultimate goal of monetary policy is not clear, there is no priority option; Secondly, the management of monetary policy tools of the State Bank also bears administrative imprints such as assigning credit growth targets; stipulating the ceiling on interest rates for short-term deposits in VND and the ceiling on short-term lending rates in VND for priority sectors; Thirdly, the policy interest rate has not been selected yet, and the SBV's operating mechanism and interest rate determination method has not been established to ensure a close relationship between these interest rates and the Treasury bill interest rate and market interest rates; Fourthly, although the central exchange rate is managed flexibly and is basically stable compared to other currencies, it has not yet clearly shown its role in guiding and leading the market, leading to a number of times there is still a waiting mentality, expecting the exchange rate to increase, limiting the transmission of the impact to the final target through the exchange rate channel; Fifth, the transmission mechanism between the target system is still not clearly defined b, Causes of limitations in monetary policy management: Firstly, the independence of the State Bank of Vietnam as a central bank is still limited; Second, the operating mechanism of Vietnam's monetary policy is not clear; Third, the legal provisions on tools of monetary policy are still inadequate; Fourth, the Vietnamese commercial banking system is still limited in its ability to manage risks, manage assets and liabilities; Fifth, the information system and database are still limited; Sixth, the management of monetary policy is becoming more and more complicated, because along with the extensive international cooperation process, more foreign capital flows into or out of the economy, affecting the effectiveness of monetary policy management enjoy; Seventh, the coordination between monetary policy and other macro policies is not close; Eighth, money market, bond market developed at a low level, not yet dynamic and flexible; Ninth, the transparency of monetary policy has not been clearly shown Chapter 5: LESSONS ON OPERATING MONETARY POLICY OF THAILAND, INDONESIA AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM 5.1 Lessons from Thailand and Indonesia's monetary policy management 5.1.1 Bases for selection of research to learn from Thailand and Indonesia's monetary policy management experience * Trends in monetary policy management of countries in the region: The results of the process of perfecting and developing monetary policy management activities in Asian countries show that the monetary policy framework for targeting inflation is the monetary policy framework adopted by the Central Banks of Asian countries Asia tends to choose popular adoption, even if inflation control is not focused In operating monetary policy, Vietnam has not clearly defined the monetary policy operating framework, so monetary policy management is still inconsistent; When determining monetary policy targets, in addition to economic growth and inflation, Vietnam's monetary policy also aims to achieve other goals in each period Therefore, choosing a formal monetary policy framework is essential for Vietnam's monetary policy in the future However, if we choose to learn from the monetary policy management experience of countries that apply the monetary policy framework anchored to the exchange rate or money supply or the traditional inflation targeting monetary policy framework, it will not guarantee the achievement of the targets set by Vietnam's monetary policy Therefore, learning from Thailand and Indonesia's monetary policy management experience to apply it to Vietnam's monetary policy operations is consistent with the actual conditions in Vietnam and in line with the trends of monetary policy management in other countries in the area * Correlation of monetary policy operations of Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam Thailand Current monetary policy framework The last goal Indonesia Vietnam Flexible inflation targeting Flexible targeting inflation Inflation targeting is implicitly anchored to the money supply level Stabilizing prices, curbing inflation, besides, implementing financial stability - The Law on Central Bank Law (May 1999) clearly states that the sole objective of - Two main goals: price stability (expressed in inflation) and economic growth Determine Indonesia's - Each period has other monetary policy is inflation: objectives such as: to pursue and ensuring national defense + Before 2015: Average core maintain a stable and security; improve inflation (Core value of the Rupiah people's living standards; Inflation) quarterly Determining inflation: ensure safety and healthy + From 2015: Using Head Inflation development for the of credit Average annual as the target inflation system institutions; stabilize the is calculated based inflation (Headline on the consumer currency and foreign Inflation) exchange markets price index CPI Target The announced- Inflation is determined inflation: on CPI inflation target is an based + Before 2015 inflation rate of +/- determination and 2018, 2020: amplitude Determined by interval + 2015 - 2017 and 2021: announced inflation target +/- band Intermediate target forecast Inflation Inflation expectations Out Gap) Gap (Out Operational goals - Policy interest rate: 1-day bilateral refinancing rate (1day repo rate) - Interest rate - Exchange rate Monetary Policy Tools - Use the credit interest rate tool (base rate) as the The main monetary policy tool is the policy interest rate (7-day reverse - Growth rate of total means of payment (M2), credit and exchange rates - Control the base money (MB) - Additional target (applicable since 2009): Available capital and interest rates in the market, in which interbank interest rates become increasingly important - Use of tools: reserve requirement, interest rate (base rate and rediscount rate), open market main tool - Active open market operations with four forms: government securities repurchase and sale activities, central bank bond issuance, and foreign exchange swaps Transmission channel Executive organization Required reserve instruments and non-traditional instruments (contingency loan instruments) transmission channels: Market interest rates, bank credit, asset prices, exchange rates and expectations, in which the interest rate channel is the dominant channel repo rate - BI7DRR) which is decided monthly - Open market operations are used in conjunction with a discount policy transmission channels: Market interest rates, bank credit, asset prices, exchange rates and expectations in which the interest rate channel is the main channel through the 7-day reverse repo rate adjustment Indonesia strictly regulates and adjusts from time to time - Approving the following: establishing a decentralized institution to Provide a monetary administer the policy monetary policy framework to (advancing the achieve price independence of the stability During the central bank); implementation of develop a policy monetary policy, the implementation Central Bank is free operations (mainly volume bidding), exchange rate (central exchange rate) ), credit lines and some other tools - There is a tendency to switch from direct tools to indirect tools transmission channels: credit channel, interest rate channel and exchange rate channel (credit channel is an important channel) - The State Bank is an agency directly under the Government, develops a national monetary policy project for the Government to submit to the National Assembly for decision, on that basis, the State Bank organizes implementation and is responsible for process; building macroeconomic forecasting models; administer the appropriate exchange rate policy to achieve the set objectives and provide for accountability in operating monetary policy Policy - Cut interest response to rates (record low) the Covid-19 Implement additional pandemic measures by easing macroprudential policy measures selectively, applying non-traditional monetary policy tools, promoting bailout measures and debt forbearance to support lending while minimizing default risks - Provide to decide on the inflation target to be achieved (independent target) and freely choose monetary instruments to achieve this goal (independent instrument) Flexible inflation targeting monetary policy supported by the application of macroeconomic stabilization policy, exchange rate policy; coordinate with supervisory authorities of the financial sector; coordination to stabilize the financial system - Cut interest rates operating monetary policy within the scope approved by the National Assembly and approved by the Government Apply superextended monetary policy - Increased intervention in the spot market, non- Cut interest rates (big trading futures cuts) market and bond Applying economic purchases on the growth stimulus secondary market packages, expanding removing - Extensive tools and credit, for the transactions in the difficulties money market and economy foreign Synchronously using exchange market monetary policy tools, - Provide liquidity and ease liquidity a conditions - Implementing operating and announcing flexible central exchange rates on a daily basis, suitable containment mechanism to avoid liquidity squeeze and prevent transfer risk in the local bond market macroprudential policies, encouraging banks to provide credit for domestic foreign markets and (Source: Compiled by the author) 5.1.2 Lessons learned from managing monetary policy of Thailand and Indonesia: Firstly, it is necessary to choose a monetary policy framework suitable to the set objectives, and at the same time, it is necessary to determine when to apply and roadmap for the application of the selected monetary policy framework; Secondly, in the framework of a flexible inflation-targeting monetary policy framework, in addition to the consistency in monetary policy management, it is also necessary to choose an appropriate type of inflation target, besides it is necessary to develop a target inflation level/frame suitable to achieve the set target as well as reduce the volatility of inflation; Third, within the framework of flexible inflation targeting monetary policy, a positive change in the use of monetary policy tools in the direction of using a flexible combination of indirect tools is essential to achieve the stated target determined; Fourth, when monetary policy transmission channels are still weak, leading to an increase in monetary policy delay, it is necessary to have early forecasts about the development of the economy and possible fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators out When there are fluctuations that deviate from the forecast, the Central Bank needs to use powerful tools or effects to achieve operational efficiency; Fifth, the construction and development of econometric models to predict the macro-economy as well as the development of an early warning system will create initiative for monetary policy in setting targets, selecting tools and selecting tools choose the right time to intervene in the market to achieve the set goals, thereby shortening the policy lag and improving the efficiency of monetary policy; Sixth, transparency and accountability in operating monetary policy are important factors for more effective monetary policy management; Seventh, improving the independence of the central bank is one of the factors that have a dominant influence on the effectiveness of monetary policy management 5.2 Policy implications of monetary policy management in Vietnam 5.2.1 The operating context of Vietnam's monetary policy 5.2.2 Policy implications of monetary policy management in Vietnam 5.2.3 The rapid and strong changes of the world economy as well as the domestic economic context and the direction of monetary policy management in the coming period have significantly affected the Vietnamese economy and the operation of monetary policy Therefore, the management of monetary policy needs to have appropriate decisions From the lessons learned in the operation of monetary policy in Thailand and Indonesia, compared with the actual practice of monetary policy in Vietnam, some policy implications are proposed for Vietnam to operate the monetary policy effectively The results are as follows: Firstly, the orientation to apply the monetary policy framework for flexible inflation targeting (Flexible Inflation Targeting) is the operating framework for Vietnam's monetary policy in the coming time, and at the same time, establish the basis and roadmap for the official application of the framework of flexible inflation targeting monetary policy in Vietnam; Second, clearly define the objectives of monetary policy; Third, in the development of monetary policy, Vietnam needs to better define the entity responsible for setting monetary policy targets, especially inflation targets, and at the same time need to further improve the independence of the SBV in operating the monetary policy monetary policy; Fourth, in the process of operating monetary policy, the SBV needs to actively and flexibly coordinate and synchronize monetary policy tools, perfect monetary policy tools and select appropriate transmission channels to effectively implement monetary policy the effect of the instrument on policy objectives; Fifth, strengthen analysis, statistics and forecasting; Sixth, the SBV needs to improve transparency in decision-making and policy accountability to ensure public trust 5.2.4 In addition, the SBV needs to set a reasonable inflation target range Because, the inflation target range is too narrow, which will make the SBV no longer have space to intervene on the exchange rate and stabilize output 5.2.5 Currently, in the face of complicated fluctuations of the Covis19 pandemic, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam have all applied super-easy monetary policy and a series of measures to achieve the dual goal of fighting the epidemic and stabilizing the economy economic The operating activities commonly used by Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam are reducing policy interest rates at very low levels, giving instructions to commercial banks to extend, restructure and expand debt, reduce interest rates to remove difficulties for borrowers In addition, the central banks of other countries use non-traditional tools and closely coordinate with fiscal policy in providing solutions to achieve the set goals However, with the 5.2.6 current context, the interest rate tool will be less effective Therefore, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, in the short term, Vietnam's monetary policy should not attach importance to reducing policy interest rates too deeply, but strengthen coordination with fiscal policy, social security policy , public investment policy and temporarily using non-traditional monetary policy tools 5.2.7 CONCLUSION 5.2.8 In the thesis: "Experience in monetary policy management of Thailand, Indonesia and policy implications for Vietnam", the author summarizes research works on monetary policy at home and abroad, showing that the thesis has inheritance, select the theoretical basis of the topics studied before but not overlap on the object and research direction of the topic 5.2.9 With the researched contents, the thesis has achieved the goal and performed the research task set out and has made contributions in both theory and practice The thesis has systematized and clarified the theoretical issues of monetary policy administration In which, the thesis has added to the theoretical basis of the concept of monetary policy administration, according to which, monetary policy management includes not only building a monetary policy framework (including monetary policy objectives, monetary policy tools and monetary policy transmission channels) which includes the organization of the monetary policy operating apparatus and the establishment of the authority and responsibility of that apparatus to implement monetary policy The thesis also generalizes more comprehensively the content of monetary policy management that previous studies have not yet generalized Accordingly, the content of monetary policy management includes the following activities: Selection of final goals, intermediate goals, operational goals; Selection and use of tools; Selection and use of transmission channels; and organizing the operation of monetary policy The thesis summarizes and analyzes the subjective and objective factors affecting the effectiveness of monetary policy management - this is also the content of the previous studies that hardly mentioned 5.2.10 In parallel with focusing on analyzing, evaluating and comparing the contents of monetary policy operations in Thailand (in the period 2000 - 2020) and Indonesia (in the period 1999 - 2020), the thesis also synthesizes and analyzes developments in the management of monetary policy of Vietnam in the period 2009 - 2020 and shows that, in the past time, Vietnam has had many positive changes in the management of monetary 5.2.11 policy However, besides the achievements, the operation of monetary policy in Vietnam has also shown many shortcomings These limitations are also analyzed by the thesis and the main causes are pointed out On the basis of analysis and comparison of lessons learned in operating monetary policy of Thailand and Indonesia with the actual situation of monetary policy administration in Vietnam, especially, from analyzing limitations and causes of limitations, at the same time, Clearly analyzing the context of monetary policy administration, the thesis proposes policy implications for Vietnam to operate monetary policy more effectively in the coming time, with a vision to 2030 Besides, the thesis also focuses on analysis policy responses of Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam to the Covid-19 pandemic, and at the same time, propose some policy implications for the management of Vietnam's monetary policy in that context However, in addition to the results achieved by the thesis, the thesis is still limited in that it has not mentioned and analyzed the fact that Vietnam is accused of currency manipulation (December 2020) and proposes solutions to the problem this problem This limitation will be researched and clarified by the author in the following scientific studies 5.2.12 LIST OF PUBLISHED RESEARCH WORKS RELATED TO THE AUTHOR'S THESIS 5.2.13 Bui Thi Hanh (2021), Lessons learned for Vietnam from the management of Thailand's inflation-targeting monetary policy, Asia-Pacific Economic Review (ISSN: 0868-3808), No 584, March 2021 Bui Thi Hanh (2021), Responses on monetary policy of Thailand and Indonesia to the Covid-19 pandemic, Journal of Industry and Trade (ISSN: 0866-7756), February 2021 issue Bui Thi Hanh, Tran Anh Phuong (2020), The process of changing Thailand's monetary policy frameworks and experiences for Vietnam, Молодой ученый Международный научный журнал № 25 (315) / 2020, 5.2.14 - ISSN 2072-0297 Bui Thi Hanh, Nguyen Thi Nguyet Dung (2019), Progress of developing monetary policy frameworks of some Asian countries and lessons learned on monetary policy management for Vietnam, Economic Review Forecast, - No 17, June 2019, ISSN 0866-7120 Bui Thi Hanh, Nguyen Thi Nguyet Dung (2018), Experience in managing monetary policy of Indonesia and lessons with Vietnam, - альные вопросы экономики и управления: атериалы VI (г Москва, июнь 2018 г.) International Scientific Conference VI: "Current Economic and Management Issues", June 2018, ISBN 978-5-4465-0946-1 ... Operation of monetary policy of Indonesia 3.2.1 Overview of Indonesia' s macroeconomics 3.2.2 The process of operating Indonesia' s monetary policy 2.3.10 The monetary policy of Indonesia is divided into... THAILAND, INDONESIA AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM 5.1 Lessons from Thailand and Indonesia' s monetary policy management 5.1.1 Bases for selection of research to learn from Thailand and Indonesia' s... Indonesia and the practice of monetary policy in Vietnam 3.2 Scope of study: Regarding content: The thesis studies the experience in operating monetary policy administration of Thailand and Indonesia