Salinity intrusion and adaptation solutions assessing the transformation from rice paddies to shrimp farming as an approach to cope with salinity intrusion in ben tre province, vietnam

SALINITY INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION SOLUTIONS Assessing the transformation from rice to shrimp as an approach to cope with salinity intrusion in Salinity intrusion and adaptation solutions: Assessing the transformation from rice paddies to shrimp farming to adapt to increasing saline intrusion in the Vietnamese Ben Tre province Name: Pham Dang Manh Hong Luan Student ID: 851022651180 Department: Environmental System Analysis Group Wageningen University and Research Thesis supervisors: dr AR (Andre) van Amstel Environmental System Analysis Group Department of Environmental Science Wageningen University and Research dr Ngo Thi Phuong Lan Department of Anthropology University of Social Science and Humanities Environmental System Analysis MSc Environmental Sciences Wageningen University and Research a Table of contents List of tables i  List of figures ii  Acknowledgement iii  Summary iv  I  PROBLEM FORMULATION 1  1.1  Introduction on study area 1  1.1.1  Natural characteristics of Ben Tre province 1  1.1.2  Socio-economic characteristics of Ben Tre province 2  1.2  Problem statement 4  1.2.1  Salinity intrusion in Ben Tre province 4  1.2.2  Rice farming – a precarious livelihood 5  1.3  Research objectives 7  1.4  Conceptual framework 7  1.5  Research questions 8  1.6  Outline of the report 8  II  METHODOLOGY 10  2.2  Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) 10  2.3  Literature study 12  2.4  Data collection and field survey 12  2.5  GIS 14  III  HISTORY OF RICE INTENSIFICATION AND SHRIMP FARMING IN BEN TRE PROVINCE 17  3.2  Rice expansion period from 1975 to 1990 17  3.2  Rice intensification from 1990 to 2000 17  3.3  Period 2000-2010 17  3.4  Planning for rice and shrimp farming from 2010 to 2020 18  IV  SHRIMP FARMING 22  4.1  Type of shrimp farming 22  4.2  Mono-shrimp cultivation 24  4.3  Rice-shrimp rotation system 26  V  RESULTS 28  5.1  Level of salinity intrusion in Ben Tre province 28  5.1.1  Selection of scenarios 30  5.1.2  Extent of salinity intrusion 30  5.2  Areas for rice-to-shrimp transformation 32  5.3  Impact assessment of the rice-to-shrimp transformation 34  5.3.1  Food security 34  5.3.2  Economic development 35  5.3.3  Environmental sustainability 36  5.4  Optimal solution for the area 42  VI  DISCUSSION 46  6.1  The extent of salinity intrusion in Ben Tre province 46  6.2  Area for rice-shrimp transformation 46  6.3  Impacts implied in the rice-shrimp transformation 46  6.4  Optimal solution for the area 47  VII  CONCLUSION 49  References 50  Appendices 54  b List of tables Table I.1: Gross output (billions VND) of cultivation at current prices (2015) by crop groups 3  Table I.2: Gross output (billion VND) of aquaculture at current price (year 2015) 4  Table II.1: Goals, criteria and indicators for criteria applied in the research 10  Table II.2: List of scenarios of development and its weight to goals 11  Table II.3: Source of data for scoring in MCA 12  Table II.4: Primary data to be collected 14  Table III.1: Area (ha) for rice farming landuse and cumulative area of rice crop in seasons paddy by district in 2010 (Ben Tre SO, 2015) 20  Table IV.1: Shrimp species nurtured in the studied area and their favorable range of salinity level 23  Table V.1: Scenarios in the study on salinity intrusion (Toan, 2014) 29  Table V.2: Salinity levels of water and their suitable use 30  Table V.3: Original scores of criteria and their normalized values 40  i List of figures Figure I.1: Map of Ben Tre province 1  Figure I.2: Gross output (billion VND) at current price by economic sectors from 2010 to 2015 3  Figure I.3: Monthly consumption of rice and meat of an individual in Vietnam from 2002 to 2012 5  Figure I.4: Seasonal calendar in the Mekong Delta and the periods of saline- intrusion- related events 6  Figure I.5: Conceptual framework 7  Figure II.1: Map of survey area 13  Figure II.2: Flowchart describing GIS application in the research 15  Figure III.1: Map of rice farming activity in 2010 19  Figure III.2: Landuse map of Ben Tre province in 2010 19  Figure III.3: Map of landuse planning of Ben Tre province to 2020 21  Figure IV.1: Shrimp production (tons) by district from 2010 to 2015 22  Figure IV.2: Extensive shrimp pond in Ben Tre province 25  Figure IV.3: Intensive mono-shrimp culture in Ben Tre province 26  Figure IV.4: Rice-shrimp field in Ben Tre 27  Figure V.1: Average salinity level in dry seasons in condition 2005 31  Figure V.2: Area (ha) by district under different duration (days) of impact by salinity level 4ppt 32  Figure V.3: Map of duration (days) of salinity level 4ppt in the condition 2005 32  Figure V.4: Map of duration of salinity level 4ppt affecting rice crops 33  Figure V.5: Map of rice-shrimp transformation in 2020 34  Figure V.6: Food security scores of three options of land-use 43  Figure V.7: Economic development scores of the three options of land-use 43  Figure V.8: Environmental sustainability scores of the three options of land-use 44  Figure V.9: Graphs illustrating scores of mono rice farming with respect to three criteria (on the left) and the its final scores in each scenario of development (on the right) 45  Figure V.10: Graphs illustrating scores of intensive shrimp farming with respect to three criteria (on the left) and the its final scores in each scenario of development (on the right) 45  Figure V.11: Graphs illustrating scores of rice-shrimp farming with respect to three criteria (on the left) and the its final scores in each scenario of development (on the right) 45  ii Acknowledgement The idea for this thesis came from my experience of more than two years working as a researcher in Center of Water Management and Climate Change (WACC) whose duty mainly focuses on natural changes and social dynamics in the Mekong Delta It was also inspired by my special love for the Mekong Delta, the land of prosperity but can still preserve its idyll I would like to express my gratitude to Wageningen University and Environmental System Analysis group for creating opportunity for me to this research I also want to send my gratitude to Dr Andre van Amstel of Wageningen University and Dr Ngo Thi Phuong Lan of University of Social Science and Humanities for supervising me in this research I would like to thank Sub-Institute of Hydrometeorology and Climate Change (SIHYMECC), especially Mr Tran Tuan Hoang, head of Hydrological department and Mr Truong Hoai Thanh, expert of Meteorological department for allowing me to work part-time in the office, supporting me in modelling job, and sharing precious data and information I also would like to thank Dr To Quang Toan, expert of Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR) for sharing the result of his research on salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta Lastly, I would like to send great gratitude to Mr Dinh Quang Toan, lecturer of the University Thu Dau Mot, Binh Duong and Mr Pham Van Luan, lecturer and head of Ben Tre Young Creative Group of Ben Tre University for giving enormous support in my field trip in Ben Tre province Without their great help in making contact with local government, the field trip could have never been done iii Summary Ben Tre is a coastal province in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam As a coastal province, it is frequently under the impact of saline intrusion, especially in the dry season The impacts of saline intrusion cause severe problems to freshwater livelihoods in the area Rice farming; in specific, is the most vulnerable freshwater livelihood in the condition of saline intrusion due to its heavy reliance on the availability of freshwater Rice farming in the Mekong Delta is also notorious for its low profit, trapping rice farmers in poverty Therefore, the research aims to assess the transformation from rice to shrimp cultivation to cope with increased saline intrusion in Ben Tre province and find the optimal solution Output from model of saline intrusion taken from previous study was applied to analyze the extent of salinity intrusion in Ben Tre province The model outputs were then overlaid with a land-use map planning to 2020 and rice-crop calendar to identify areas where rice was feasibly transformed to shrimp Impacts of the rice-shrimp transformation were then assessed In this research, the impacts on food security, economic development and the environment were considered Groups of criteria for these three dimensions and their indicators were identified using literature review Data for the impact assessment came from the field survey and partly from available literature Lastly, a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was then applied to compare different land-use options such as 3-season mono-rice fields, 3-season industrial shrimp farming and the rice-shrimp rotation farming The application of MCA is to find the optimal option between the three options Results pointed out that any adopted land-use option implies substantial trade-offs between food-security target, economic development and the environment The research also showed that the rice-shrimp rotation model is the optimal option for the region thanks to its capability of reconciling the conflicting interests on food security, better income and environmental sustainability iv I PROBLEM FORMULATION 1.1 Introduction on study area 1.1.1 Natural characteristics of Ben Tre province Figure I.1 shows the map of the Vietnamese Ben Tre province It is is one of thirteen provinces of the Mekong Delta and locates in the coastal area of this delta Its northern side borders the Tien Giang province and the western and southern side borders the Vinh Long province Its eastern side borders the South China sea (or the East Sea in Vietnam’s naming system) through three estuaries Dai, Ham Luong and Co Chien The whole province is subdivided into nine administrative units including one city and eight districts Ben Tre city is the administrative, economic and cultural center of the Ben Tre province Seven other districts include Chau Thanh, Binh Dai, Giong Trom, Cho Lach, Thanh Phu, Mo Cay Bac, Mo Cay Nam and Ba Tri The Mekong river after entering Vietnam’s territory, separates into two main branches including Tien and Hau river Geographically, Ben Tre province is the most downstream area of Tien river Tien river is then divided into four main tributaries including Tien, Ba Lai, Ham Luong and Co Chien river These tributaries help form the shape of Ben Tre province which is similar to an alluvial fan With the existence of these main rivers running through the whole province, geomorphologically, Ben Tre is separated into three peninsulas including An Hoa, Bao and Minh The geographic coordinates of the whole Ben Tre province are 9048’ to 11020’ North and 105057’ to 106048’ East Figure I.1: Map of Ben Tre province (www.bentretourist.vn) About topography, Ben Tre province has characteristics of flat topography of the river delta formed by deposition of sediments of the Mekong river The whole province can be topographically divided into three zones (MONRE, 2010) including: • Zone of low elevation: elevation is lower than 1m This area includes newly formed peninsulas, tidal areas and mangrove areas It is usually flooded by tide; • Zone of average elevation: elevation ranges from to 2m This is the dominant topography in Ben Tre province which occupies up to 90% area of the whole province; and • Zone of high elevation: this zone includes coastal sand dunes and high areas along main rivers in the North West side of the province About hydrology, Ben Tre province’s hydrological system is characterized by dense channel network with overall length of up to 6000 km Besides main rivers including Tien, Co Chien, Ham Luong and Ba Lai, there are about 60 other small rivers and channels (MONRE, 2010) The flow of this dense channel network is driven mainly by flow from Tien river and tidal regime of the South China sea (ibid) In addition, the tidal regime in coastal area of the province follows semi-diurnal pattern with two high tides and two low tides each day Water level in high tide is normally 2.5-3m higher than in ebb tide in days with high tides, and the difference is approximately 1m in days with low tides (MONRE, 2011) About climate, Ben Tre can be distinctively separated into seasons The rainy season lasts from May to November, the dry season, on the other hand, lasts from December to April next year The yearly average precipitation in the province is from 1,200 to 1,600 mm (MONRE, 2011) Precipitation in rainy season takes up to 90-95% of the yearly rainfall in the province On the contrary, in dry season, especially in January, February and March, there are only or rainy days and the rainfall in dry season only takes 1.5 to 6% of the total yearly rainfall (ibid) 1.1.2 Socio-economic characteristics of Ben Tre province Ben Tre province has many geographic advantages for socio-economic development Being located at the most downstream area of the Mekong Delta with dense river network and only 86km away from Ho Chi Minh city, the socio-economic center of the South, Ben Tre can easily integrate its economy with other regions in the Mekong Delta and the South Eastern part of Vietnam (Ben Tre DONRE, 2008) According to Ben Tre SO (2015); in 2010, agriculture, forestry and aquaculture continues to be the main economic sector in the province with the largest contribution to the economy’s GDP In specific, these sectors account for nearly 45% of the province’s gross output in 2010 (ibid) In recent years; however, industrial and service sector have been developing sharply as shown in Figure I.2 to replace agriculture, forestry and fishing in the contribution to the province’s gross output 90,000 80,000 Billions VND 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2010 2011 2012 Agriculture, Forestry and fishing 2013 2014 Industry and construction Prel 2015 Service Figure I.2: Gross output (billion VND) at current price by economic sectors from 2010 to 2015 (Ben Tre SO, 2015) Table I.1 shows the contribution of each type of crops to agricultural sector Cereal crops (mostly rice) are the most important annual crops contributing 1,501billions VND to gross product in 2015 (Ben Tre SO, 2015) Table I.1: Gross output (billions VND) of cultivation at current prices (2015) by crop groups (Ben Tre SO, 2015) Annual crops Year Total Total Cereal Perennial crops Vegetable, Annual bean and industrial flowers crop Total Fruit Perennial crop industrial crop 2010 6,343 2,545 1,551 537 367 3,798 2,310 1,411 2011 9,696 3,372 1,993 819 412 6,324 3,159 3,012 2012 7,494 3,359 1,747 1,070 319 4,135 2,998 1,124 2013 7,375 2,815 1,343 1,029 240 4,560 2,983 1,562 2014 9,261 3,668 1,677 1,490 230 5,593 2,849 2,736 Prel 9.198 3,548 1,501 1,618 138 5,650 3,036 2,606 2015 farming Shrimp farming was also proved to provide higher job opportunity The only economic shortcoming of shrimp farming is its high investment leading disastrous losses to farmers when crop failed However, the rice-shrimp model was proved to be less risky in this term thanks to its lower investment compared to intensive shrimp farming However, unlike the high validity of the values of profit from rice farming which was taken from trustworthy academic source, the validity of the values of the profit from shrimp farming can be questioned on considering the sampling techniques In specific, due to the limit of time and human resources, only 32 interviews were made, half of those was with intensive shrimp farmers and the rest was with rice-shrimp rotation farmers The small sampling size can make it hard to come to a profit difference that has statistical meaning However, the values of profit calculated using data collected from field survey was confirmed by comparing with previous study in the Mekong Delta by AMDI (2016) Another impact that can be observed from the rice-shrimp transformation is the impact on the environment Even though rice farming in the Mekong Delta is, for a long time, notorious for its huge environmental impacts, it is still outweighed by intensive shrimp farming in this aspect In specific, shrimp farming can discharge a huge volume of nutrients into the environment in form of sediment Another downside of shrimp farming is its ability to salinate water and soil The impact is the most noticeable in area where shrimp ponds are adjacent to rice fields Intensive shrimp farming with intensive investment into pond construction also implies drastic change to the terrain The extraction of groundwater in shrimp farming leading to land subsidence was not taken into account in the research This environmental impact; however, can be avoided by legal enforcement prohibiting the extraction of groundwater In addition, the quantification of the possible impacts from agro-chemical inputs in shrimp farming was also challenged by the diversity of shrimp farming practice in the area In this research, assumption on no direct water exchange and no other inputs except for industrial food had to be made to address this diversity The legitimacy of input data was the most worth-noticing problem in this study For rice farming, the assumption of mono-rice farming was challenged by the diversification policy in agriculture allowing rice farmers to diversify and therefore, improve their livelihood by cultivating other types of crops along with rice As a result, values arriving from one hectare of rice paddy on map would vary considerably to those used in the research Similar to rice farming, the values used in shrimp farming was challenged by the variation in the design of shrimp farms which normally not include only shrimp ponds but also sedimentation ponds and spaces for other facilities However, taking account the objective of the research aiming at the relative comparison between mono-rice farming and shrimp farming on the large scale, the level of detail of data used in the study can still be acceptable 6.4 Optimal solution for the area The result from MCA applied for nine scenarios of development showed the prospect of changing from rice to shrimp to address salinity intrusion in the area On balancing between the interest on food security, economic development and the environmental impacts, the rice-shrimp rotation model 47 performs the best The rice-shrimp model also performs better than mono-rice farming and intensive shrimp farming when environmental impact is the top concern On the other hands, the output of MCA also show that intensive shrimp farming is not a promising solution for the area if its detrimental impacts on the environment are not addressed In specific, the intensive shrimp farming is only score better than the two other solutions when economic development is set as the top priority This scenario is; however, less preferable taking into account the growing pressure on the environment There are still some shortcomings; however, in the application of MCA to assess the solutions One of the most noticeable problem arrives from the weights assigned to criteria The case of intensive shrimp farming showed how the final score for option is sensitive to the weight assigned to it In specific, the final score of intensive shrimp farming greatly slumped when less emphasis was put on the criteria of economic development The study tried to resolve the subjectivity of MCA by doing sensitivity analysis on weights assigned to criteria In specific, more than one goal or scenario of development was considered in the research and in each scenario; different weight was assigned to criteria 48 VII CONCLUSION Ben Tre province and the Mekong Delta in general have a long history of facing salinity intrusion However, salinity intrusion is worsened in the last decades as the result of climate change and upstream activities This demands a changing in the mindset of planning to face salinity intrusion in the future In specific, instead of total relying on hard structures, there should be a stronger shift to adaptive solutions This shift, in turn, demands a changing in the way we think about saline water in that saline water should be considered as a resource instead of a threat The study showed the severity of salinity intrusion in Ben Tre province not only in spatial but also in temporal term The intrusion of saline water affects more than half of the province’s area, the three coastal districts Binh Dai, Ba Tri, and Thanh Phu are under the most severe impacts of salinity intrusion with more than three months affected by saline water However, as was mentioned in the research’s objectives, the transformation from rice to shrimp farming is a promising adaptive approach in coping with salinity intrusion in the area Based on the extent of saline intrusion in the province, the study suggested areas where this transformation is suitable The rice farming; which is a freshwater livelihood, was targeted in the study for the transformation because of their low profitability and high vulnerability to saline intrusion The result of the analysis pointed out that there are about 8,299ha of rice fields is fit to shrimp farming activities on the concern about saline intrusion The rice-shrimp transformation; however, implies huge trade-offs between food security, economic development and environmental sustainability The loss of rice yield is the most noteworthy on considering the importance of food security in Vietnam The prospect of higher income and job opportunities for farmers; however, is an obvious advantage of the conversion to shrimp farming Shrimp farming; nevertheless, means huge pressure on the environment compared to rice farming, on considering the potential its nutrient discharge and salinization impact Finally, the study also suggested the application of the rice-shrimp rotation model as an optimal option for Ben Tre province The model can help the province cope with the salinity intrusion by utilizing saline water in dry season, it can also reconcile the conflicting interests between food security, economic development and 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intensive Intensive Number of shrimp seasons a year Season Season Season Number of labors Shrimp species Time starts Stock density Time harvest Shrimp feeding Name of food and amount applied Application of other chemicals Name of chemials and amount applied Frequency of water exchange Frequency of pond dredging Sediment treament 55 BENEFIT – RISK Season Season Crop investment (VND/season) Crop yield in crop success (kg/season) Crop yield in crop loss (kg/season) Price (VND/kg) 56 Season Appendice 3: Questionnaire for rice-shrimp farming HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ON ASSESSING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF RICE-TO-SHRIMP TRANSFORMATION IN BEN TRE PROVINCE TO COPE WITH SALINITY INTRUSION RICE-SHRIMP ROTATION I GENERAL INFORMATION Name: Age: Gender: Address: Number of family members: Number of main labors in family: II LIVELIHOOD INFORMATION FARMING PRACTICE Experience (years) Area for shrimp farming (ha) Area for rice farming (ha) Shrimp season Number of rice and shrimp season a year Species/Seed Time starts Time harvests Shrimp feeding Name of food and amount applied Application of other chemicals Name of food and amount applied Frequency of water exchange Frequency of pond dredging Sediment treament Fertilizer application on rice Names of fertilizer and amount applied Pesticide application on rice Names of pesticide and amount 57 Shrimp season Rice season applied BENEFIT – RISK Shrimp season Investment (VND/season) Crop yield in crop success (kg/season) Crop yield in crop loss (kg/season) Price (VND/kg) 58 Shrimp season Rice season Appendice 4: Photos from field trip Figure: Sediment dredging after one shrimp season Figure: Industrial food in shrimp farming 59 Figure: Lime application in pond treatment Figure: Mangrove-shrimp in Ben Tre province 60 Figure: Ba Lai sluice gate across Ba Lai river Figure: Interview with shrimp farmer 61 .. .Salinity intrusion and adaptation solutions: Assessing the transformation from rice paddies to shrimp farming to adapt to increasing saline intrusion in the Vietnamese Ben Tre province Name:... of landuse planning of Ben Tre province to 2020 (Ben Tre DARD, 2010) 21 IV SHRIMP FARMING Shrimp farming started to prosper in Vietnam since the end of 1990s with the increasing demand for shrimp. .. allocation planning to 2020 in the area, which later serves as input to the analysis of the possibilities and impacts of the transformation from rice to shrimp to cope with salinity intrusion The fourth