BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ TP.HỒ CHÍ MINH PHÙNG THÙY DUNG CÁC YẾU TỐ TÁC ĐỘNG ĐẾN NỢ XẤU TẠI CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƯƠNG MẠI VIỆT NAM LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KINH TẾ Tp Hồ Chí Minh - năm 2019 BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ TP HỒ CHI MINH PHÙNG THÙY DUNG CÁC YẾU TỐ TÁC ĐỘNG ĐẾN NỢ XẤU TẠI CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƯƠNG MẠI VIỆT NAM Chuyên ngành: Tài – Ngân hàng (Ngân hàng) Mã số: 8340201 LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KINH TẾ NGƯỜI HƯỚNG DẪN KHOA HỌC TS NGUYỄN THANH PHONG Tp.Hồ Chí Minh - năm 2019 LỜI CAM ĐOAN Tôi xin cam đoan nội dung luận văn: “Các yếu tố tác động đến nợ xấu ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam” nghiên cứu tơi Ngoại trừ tài liệu tham khảo trích dẫn luận văn này, xin cam đoan nội dung luận văn chưa công bố sử dụng để nhận cấp nơi khác Tp.Hồ Chí Minh, ngày 15 tháng năm 2019 Người viết cam đoan Phùng Thùy Dung MỤC LỤC TRANG PHỤ BÌA LỜI CAM ĐOAN MỤC LỤC DANH MỤC TỪ VIẾT TẮT DANH MỤC BẢNG BIỂU DANH MỤC BIỂU ĐỒ TÓM TẮT CHƯƠNG 1: GIỚI THIỆU ĐỀ TÀI NGHIÊN CỨU 1.1 Tính cấp thiết đề tài 1.2 Mục tiêu nghiên cứu 1.2.1 Mục tiêu tổng quát: 1.2.2 Mục tiêu cụ thể: 1.3 Câu hỏi nghiên cứu 1.4 Đối tượng phạm vi nghiên cứu 1.4.1 Đối tượng nghiên cứu……………………………………………………….3 1.4.2 Phạm vi nghiên cứu…………………………………………………………4 1.5 Phương pháp nghiên cứu 1.5.1 Phương pháp nghiên cứu định tính 1.5.2 Phương pháp nghiên cứu định lượng 1.6 Kết cấu luận văn………………………………………………………… 1.7 Ý nghĩa khoa học thực tiễn nghiên cứu *Tóm tắt chương 1………………………………………………………… CHƯƠNG 2: TỔNG QUAN LÝ THUYẾT VỀ CÁC YẾU TỐ TÁC ĐỘNG ĐẾN NỢ XẤU CỦA NGÂN HÀNG THƯƠNG MẠI ……………………………….7 2.1 Lý thuyết tổng quan nợ xấu 2.1.1 Khái niệm nợ xấu 2.1.2 Nguyên nhân phát sinh nợ xấu…………………………………………… 2.1.2.1 Nguyên nhân từ ngân hàng……………………………………………….8 2.1.2.2 Nguyên nhân từ khách hàng……………………… ………………… 11 2.1.2.3 Nguyên nhân từ kinh tế………………………………………… …11 2.1.3 Ảnh hưởng nợ xấu ………………………………………………… 13 2.1.3.1 Đối với kinh tế 13 2.1.3.2 Đối với ngân hàng thương mại………………………………………… 13 2.1.3.3 Đối với khách hàng……………………….…………………………… 13 2.1.3.3 Đối với khách hàng………………………………………………………13 2.1.4 Các tiêu đo lường nợ xấu…………………………………………… 133 2.1.4.1 Tỷ lệ nợ hạn .13 2.1.4.2 Tỷ lệ nợ xấu 144 2.1.4.3 Hệ số rủi ro tín dụng .144 2.1.4.4 Tỷ lệ xoá nợ 155 2.1.4.5 Dự phòng rủi ro tín dụng 155 2.1.4.6 Thu nhập lãi cận biên 155 2.1.5 Các yếu tố tác xấu……………………………………………166 động đến nợ 2.1.5.1 Nợ xấu khứ .166 2.1.5.2 Các khoản dự phòng rủi ro .167 2.1.5.3 Địn bẩy tài 177 2.1.5.4 Quy mô ngân hàng 177 2.1.5.5 Khả sinh lời 18 2.1.5.6 Tốc độ tăng trưởng tín dụng 18 2.1.5.7 Tỷ lệ lạm phát 18 2.1.5.8 Tốc độ tăng trưởng kinh tế ( GDP) 19 2.1.5.9 Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp .19 2.1.5.10 Tỷ giá hối đoái: .20 2.2 Lược khảo nghiên cứu thực nghiệm yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến nợ xấu ngân hàng thương mại 20 2.2.1 Các nghiên cứu nước ……………………………………………….20 2.2.2 Các nghiên cứu nước…………………………………………….… 26 *Tóm tắt chương 2………………………………………………………… ….28 CHƯƠNG 3: PHƯƠNG PHÁP VÀ MƠ HÌNH NGHIÊN CỨU 299 3.1 Đề xuất mơ hình nghiên cứu…………………………………………….… 29 3.2 Quy trình thực 33 3.2.1 Thu thập liệu……………………………………………………………34 3.2.2 Thống kê mơ tả…………………………………………………………….34 3.2.3 Phân tích, lựa chọn mơ hình hiệu nhất……………………………… 34 3.2.4 Kiểm tra xử lý khiếm khuyết mơ hình…………………………… 35 *Tóm tắt chương 3…………………………… …………………………… 37 CHƯƠNG 4: KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU VỀ CÁC YẾU TỐ TÁC ĐỘNG ĐẾN NỢ XẤU TẠI CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƯƠNG MẠI VIỆT NAM…………… 38 4.1 Thực trạng nợ xấu yếu tố tác động đến nợ xấu 25 NHTM Việt Nam……………………… 38 4.1.1 Thực trạng nợ xấu 25 NHTMCP Việt Nam 38 4.1.2 Dự phịng rủi ro tín dụng so với nợ xấu 25 ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam…… 39 4.1.3 Thực trạng yếu tố tác động đến nợ xấu 25 ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam…………………… 41 4.1.3.1 Quy mô ngân hàng……………………………………………………….41 4.1.3.2 Khả sinh lời……………………………………………………… 42 4.1.3.3 Tốc độ tăng trưởng tín dụng…………………………………………… 44 4.1.3.4 Tốc độ tăng trưởng GDP……………………………………… …… 45 4.1.3.5 Tỷ lệ lạm phát………………………………………………………… 47 4.1.3.6 Tỷ giá hối đoái………………………………………………………… 48 4.2 Kết mơ hình nghiên cứu 51 4.1.4 Thống kê mô tả liệu 50 4.1.5 Kết phân tích hồi quy 51 4.1.6 Kiểm tra xử lý khiếm khuyết mô hình .52 4.1.6.1 Kiểm tra ma trận hệ số tương quan…………………………………… 53 4.1.6.2 Kiểm tra hệ số phóng đại phương sai……………………………… .53 4.1.6.3 Kiểm tra phương sai sai số thay đổi…………………………………….54 4.1.6.4 Tương quan chuỗi……………………………………………………….54 4.1.7 Các yếu tố thuộc ngân hàng 62 4.1.7.1 Nợ xấu ngân hàng khứ 62 4.1.7.2 Các khoản dự phòng rủi ro .63 4.1.7.3 Địn bẩy tài 63 4.1.7.4 Quy mô ngân hàng………………… …………………………… ….63 4.1.7.5 Khả sinh lời khứ…………… ……………………….…64 4.1.7.6 Tốc độ tăng trưởng tín dụng……… ……………………………………64 4.1.8 Các yếu tố kinh tế vĩ mô .65 4.1.8.1 Tỷ lệ lạm phát 65 4.1.8.2 Tốc độ tăng trưởng kinh tế 65 4.1.8.3 Tỷ giá hối đoái 65 *Tóm tắt chương 4……………………………… ………………………… 66 CHƯƠNG 5: KẾT LUẬN VÀ HÀM Ý CHÍNH SÁCH HẠN CHẾ VÀ XỬ LÝ NỢ XẤU TẠI CÁC NHTM VIỆT NAM …… .67 5.1 Định hướng phát triển ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam 67 5.2 Hàm ý sách xử lý hạn chế nợ xấu NHTM Việt Nam… ………………………………………………………………………………68 5.2.1 Đối với NHTM Việt Nam 68 5.2.2 Kiến nghị ngân hàng Nhà Nước, Chính phủ VAMC………… 71 5.2.2.1 Kiến nghị Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam…………………… 71 5.2.2.2 Kiến nghị Chính phủ……………………………………….……73 5.2.2.3 Kiến nghị VAMC…………………………………………….….74 5.3 Hạn chế luận văn đề xuất hướng nghiên cứu 74 KẾT LUẬN 755 DANH MỤC TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO PHỤ LỤC…………………………………………………………………………… DANH MỤC TỪ VIẾT TẮT Từ viết tắt GDP Nội dung viết tắt Tổng sản phẩm quốc nội NHNN Ngân hàng Nhà nước NHTW Ngân hàng trung ương NHTM Ngân hàng thương mại NHTMCP ROA Ngân hàng thương mại cổ phần Return on asset (Tỷ suất lợi nhuận ròng tổng tài sản) TCTD Tổ chức tín dụng VAMC VietNam Asset Management Company (Cơng ty quản lý tài sản tổ chức tín dụng Việt Nam) VND Đồng Việt Nam USD Đồng đô la Mỹ LEV | -.0419618 0162936 -2.58 0.010 -.0738966 -.010027 SIZE | -.0162733 0156405 -1.04 0.298 -.0469281 0143814 lROA | 1.243197 4568955 LG | -.0004139 3476983 2.138696 -0.28 0.778 -.0032895 0024617 0111519 0.38 0.705 -.0176313 0260834 GDP | -.2486882 1442314 -1.72 0.085 -.5313765 0340001 USA | 2.28e-06 0.98 0.326 -2.27e-06 6.82e-06 INF | 004226 0014672 2.72 0.007 2.32e-06 -Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(LLP LEV SIZE INF GDP USA) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L.L.NPLt -Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -1.27 Pr > z = 0.205 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = 0.37 Pr > z = 0.708 -Sargan test of overid restrictions: chi2(6) = 2.62 Prob > chi2 = 0.855 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid restrictions: chi2(6) = 4.62 Prob > chi2 = 0.594 (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: iv(LLP LEV SIZE INF GDP USA) Hansen test excluding group: chi2(0) = 0.00 Prob > chi2 = Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(6) = 4.62 Prob > chi2 = 0.594 xtabond2 NPLt NPLt1 LLP LEV SIZE ROAt1 LG INF GDP USA,gmm( L.NPLt GDP, lag(1 1)) iv( LLP LEV SIZE INF USA) twostep Favoring space over speed To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor speed, perm Warning: Number of instruments may be large relative to number of observations Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM -Group variable: id Number of obs Time variable : year Number of groups = Number of instruments = 35 = 272 Obs per group: = 25 Wald chi2(9) = 2851.34 Prob > chi2 = avg = 0.000 max = 10.88 11 -NPLt | Coef Std Err z P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] -+ -lNPL | 1841593 0146088 12.61 0.000 LLP | 2.204471 1888969 11.67 0.000 LEV | -.0084897 0040082 -2.12 0.034 -.0163456 -.0006337 SIZE | -.0076483 0013626 -5.61 0.000 -.0103189 -.0049777 lROA | 2.30 0.022 0338468 229951 100055 LG | -.0007796 000464 2127919 1.83424 2.574702 4260551 0.093 -.001689 0001298 INF | 0195488 0050399 3.88 0.000 0096708 0294268 GDP | -.3978581 0424801 -9.37 0.000 -.4811175 -.3145986 USA | 1.46e-06 2.35e-07 6.20 _cons | 0623395 0094716 -1.68 1555266 0.000 9.95e-07 1.92e-06 6.58 0.000 0437755 0809035 -Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable Instruments for first differences equation Standard D.(LLP LEV SIZE INF USA) GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L.(L.NPLt GDP) Instruments for levels equation Standard LLP LEV SIZE INF USA _cons GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) D.(L.NPLt GDP) -Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -1.19 Pr > z = 0.235 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -0.14 Pr > z = 0.889 -Sargan test of overid restrictions: chi2(25) = 42.02 Prob > chi2 = 0.018 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.) Hansen test of overid restrictions: chi2(25) = 17.03 Prob > chi2 = 0.881 (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.) Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: GMM instruments for levels Hansen test excluding group: chi2(15) = 16.08 Prob > chi2 = 0.377 Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(10) = 0.95 Prob > chi2 = 1.000 iv(LLP LEV SIZE INF USA) Hansen test excluding group: chi2(20) = 19.42 Prob > chi2 = 0.495 Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(5) = -2.40 Prob > chi2 = 1.000 Phụ lục 10: Dữ liệu nghiên cứu: Ngân hàng Năm NPL(t-1) LLP LEV SIZE ROA (t-1) LG INF GDP USD BID 2007 8.81% 1.42% 0.94 8.31 0.39% 33.80% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 BID 2008 4.32% 1.67% 0.95 8.39 0.75% 21.97% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 BID 2009 3.16% 1.82% 0.94 8.47 0.80% 28.21% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 BID 2010 2.68% 1.45% 0.93 8.56 0.95% 23.15% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 BID 2011 2.53% 1.44% 0.94 8.61 1.03% 15.64% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 BID 2012 2.76% 1.22% 0.94 8.69 0.79% 15.65% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 BID 2013 2.70% 1.12% 0.94 8.74 0.61% 15.04% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 BID 2014 2.26% 1.02% 0.95 8.81 0.74% 13.98% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 BID 2015 2.03% 0.88% 0.95 8.93 0.77% 34.27% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 BID 2016 1.68% 1.00% 0.96 9.00 0.75% 20.93% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 BID 2017 1,99% 1,23% 0.96 9,08 0,62% 19,79% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 VCB 2007 2.75% 1.06% 0.93 8.30 1.72% 10.97% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 VCB 2008 3.69% 1.92% 0.94 8.35 1.22% 15.65% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 VCB 2009 4.61% 1.81% 0.93 8.41 0.61% 25.56% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 VCB 2010 2.47% 1.85% 0.93 8.49 1.54% 24.85% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 VCB 2011 2.83% 1.45% 0.92 8.56 1.38% 18.44% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 VCB 2012 2.03% 1.28% 0.90 8.62 1.15% 15.16% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 VCB 2013 2.40% 1.38% 0.91 8.67 1.07% 13.75% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 VCB 2014 2.73% 1.21% 0.92 8.76 0.93% 17.87% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 VCB 2015 2.31% 1.28% 0.93 8.83 0.80% 19.91% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 VCB 2016 1.84% 1.03% 0.94 8.90 0.79% 18.85% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 VCB 2017 1,51% 0,78% 0.95 9,02 0,87% 17,93% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 CTG 2007 1.41% 1.03% 0.94 8.22 0.44% 7.40% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 CTG 2008 1.03% 1.11% 0.94 8.29 0.69% 18.16% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 CTG 2009 1.81% 0.64% 0.95 8.39 0.93% 35.13% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 CTG 2010 0.61% 0.75% 0.95 8.57 0.53% 43.59% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 CTG 2011 0.66% 0.66% 0.94 8.66 0.93% 25.24% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 CTG 2012 0.75% 0.73% 0.93 8.70 1.36% 13.61% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 CTG 2013 1.47% 0.57% 0.96 8.76 1.23% 12.88% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 CTG 2014 1.00% 0.66% 0.92 8.82 1.01% 16.90% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 CTG 2015 1.12% 0.58% 0.93 8.89 0.87% 22.33% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 CTG 2016 0.92% 0.72% 0.94 8.98 0.73% 23.03% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 CTG 2017 1,02% 0,76% 0.94 9,04 0,72% 19,44% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 STB 2007 0.72% 0.27% 0.89 7.81 1.90% 145.78% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 STB 2008 0.23% 0.37% 0.89 7.84 2.16% -1.04% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 STB 2009 0.60% 0.50% 0.90 8.02 1.40% 70.41% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 STB 2010 0.64% 0.54% 0.90 8.18 1.61% 38.27% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 STB 2011 0.54% 0.57% 0.90 8.15 1.25% -2.36% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 STB 2012 0.58% 0.95% 0.91 8.18 1.41% 19.61% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 STB 2013 2.05% 0.82% 0.90 8.20 0.66% 11.95% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 STB 2014 1.48% 0.69% 0.91 8.28 1.35% 15.51% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 STB 2015 1.19% 0.77% 0.92 8.47 1.21% 47.43% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 STB 2016 5.87% 0.73% 0.93 8.52 0.22% 6.95% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 STB 2017 7,00% 0,75% 0.94 8,57 0,03% 12,10% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 EIB 2007 0.85% 0.22% 0.81 7.53 1.41% 80.77% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 EIB 2008 0.88% 0.78% 0.73 7.68 1.37% 15.07% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 EIB 2009 4.71% 0.58% 0.80 7.82 1.47% 80.77% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 EIB 2010 1.83% 0.48% 0.90 8.12 1.73% 62.44% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 EIB 2011 1.42% 0.34% 0.91 8.26 1.38% 19.76% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 EIB 2012 1.61% 0.36% 0.91 8.23 1.66% 0.35% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 EIB 2013 1.32% 0.42% 0.91 8.23 1.24% 11.25% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 EIB 2014 1.98% 0.63% 0.91 8.21 0.38% 4.55% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 EIB 2015 2.46% 0.70% 0.89 8.10 0.03% -2.74% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 EIB 2016 1.86% 0.83% 0.90 8.11 0.03% 2.51% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 EIB 2017 2,95% 0,71% 0.90 8,17 0,24% 16,61% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 ACB 2007 0.19% 0.16% 0.93 7.93 1.13% 86.96% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 ACB 2008 0.08% 0.22% 0.93 8.02 2.06% 9.50% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 ACB 2009 0.89% 0.30% 0.94 8.23 2.10% 79.02% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 ACB 2010 0.41% 0.35% 0.94 8.31 1.31% 39.83% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 ACB 2011 0.34% 0.35% 0.96 8.45 1.14% 17.91% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 ACB 2012 0.59% 0.85% 0.93 8.25 1.14% 0.01% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 ACB 2013 2.50% 0.93% 0.92 8.22 0.44% 4.26% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 ACB 2014 3.03% 0.88% 0.93 8.25 0.50% 7.05% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 ACB 2015 2.21% 0.76% 0.94 8.30 0.53% 17.96% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 ACB 2016 2.15% 0.77% 0.94 8.37 0.51% 20.73% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 ACB 2017 1,64% 0,65% 0.94 8,45 0,57% 21,49% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 SHB 2007 1.37% 0.07% 0.82 7.09 0.53% 748.61% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 SHB 2008 0.50% 0.21% 0.98 7.09 1.03% 48.85% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 SHB 2009 1.89% 0.46% 0.91 7.44 1.57% 103.97% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 SHB 2010 2.82% 0.53% 0.92 7.71 1.16% 89.76% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 SHB 2011 1.41% 0.50% 0.92 7.85 0.97% 19.52% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 SHB 2012 2.26% 1.07% 0.92 8.07 1.06% 97.66% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 SHB 2013 8.81% 0.83% 0.93 8.16 1.45% 34.37% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 SHB 2014 5.66% 0.62% 0.94 8.23 0.59% 36.06% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 SHB 2015 2.02% 0.69% 0.95 8.31 0.47% 26.26% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 SHB 2016 1.72% 0.77% 0.94 8.37 0.39% 22.18% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 SHB 2017 1,90% 1,00% 0.95 8,46 0,39% 23,48% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 NCB 2007 1.04% 0.06% 0.94 7.00 1.85% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 NCB 2008 0.16% 0.20% 0.90 7.04 0.75% 1131.72 % 25.46% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 NCB 2009 2.91% 0.51% 0.94 7.27 0.52% 81.93% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 NCB 2010 2.45% 0.53% 0.92 7.71 0.76% 144.74% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 NCB 2011 1.40% 0.50% 0.92 7.85 0.97% 19.64% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 NCB 2012 2.23% 1.01% 0.85 7.33 1.06% -55.81% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 NCB 2013 5.64% 0.72% 0.89 7.46 0.01% 4.58% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 NCB 2014 6.07% 0.53% 0.91 7.57 0.06% 22.04% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 NCB 2015 2.55% 0.43% 0.93 7.68 0.02% 24.24% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 NCB 2016 2.15% 0.42% 0.95 7.84 0.01% 24.08% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 NCB 2017 1,48% 0,50% 0.96 7,86 0,02% 26,66% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 MBB 2007 2.78% 0.49% 0.88 7.47 1.61% 93.57% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 MBB 2008 1.53% 0.56% 0.89 7.65 1.66% 35.55% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 MBB 2009 1.83% 0.65% 0.89 7.84 1.59% 87.97% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 MBB 2010 1.68% 0.67% 0.91 8.04 2.88% 64.92% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 MBB 2011 1.26% 0.79% 0.93 8.14 1.56% 21.00% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 MBB 2012 0.79% 0.75% 0.92 8.24 1.53% 26.14% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 MBB 2013 1.84% 0.98% 0.91 8.26 1.31% 17.81% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 MBB 2014 2.44% 1.23% 0.91 8.30 1.27% 14.62% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 MBB 2015 2.73% 0.89% 0.90 8.34 1.25% 20.66% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 MBB 2016 1.61% 0.80% 0.90 8.41 1.14% 24.22% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 MBB 2017 1,32% 0,68% 0.91 8,50 1,13% 22,19% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 ABB 2007 3.10% 0.34% 0.86 7.23 1.87% 506.42% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 ABB 2008 1.51% 0.60% 0.71 7.13 0.94% -4.65% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 ABB 2009 2.07% 0.54% 0.83 7.42 0.37% 97.02% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 ABB 2010 2.21% 0.56% 0.88 7.58 1.18% 54.29% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 ABB 2011 2.36% 0.77% 0.89 7.62 1.26% 0.19% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 ABB 2012 2.58% 0.90% 0.89 7.66 0.74% -5.82% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 ABB 2013 2.84% 1.13% 0.90 7.76 0.87% 26.08% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 ABB 2014 6.74% 0.70% 0.92 7.83 0.24% 9.82% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 ABB 2015 3.97% 0.60% 0.91 7.81 0.17% 19.05% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 ABB 2016 2.12% 0.79% 0.92 7.87 0.14% 26.83% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 ABB 2017 2,54% 0,90% 0.93 7,93 0,33% 22,17% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 SeaBank 2007 0.23% 0.18% 0.87 7.42 0.97% 227.81% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 SeaBank 2008 0.24% 0.35% 0.81 7.35 1.14% -31.29% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 SeaBank 2009 2.14% 0.53% 0.82 7.49 1.43% 26.89% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 SeaBank 2010 1.88% 0.59% 0.90 7.74 1.50% 113.09% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 SeaBank 2011 2.14% 0.32% 0.95 8.00 1.14% -4.25% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 SeaBank 2012 2.75% 0.62% 0.93 7.88 0.12% -15.00% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 SeaBank 2013 2.98% 0.63% 0.93 7.90 0.07% 25.36% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 SeaBank 2014 2.84% 0.62% 0.93 7.90 0.19% 53.22% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 SeaBank 2015 2.86% 0.43% 0.93 7.93 0.11% 33.49% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 SeaBank 2016 1.60% 0.53% 0.94 8.01 0.11% 37.81% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 SeaBank 2017 1,83% 0,48% 0.95 8,10 0,11% 19,56% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 VIETCAP 2007 0.04% 0.10% 0.63 6.31 1.52% 101.76% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 VIETCAP 2008 0.44% 0.10% 0.69 6.52 3.16% 23.30% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 VIETCAP 2009 1.24% 0.54% 0.07 6.52 0.15% 78.60% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 VIETCAP 2010 3.48% 0.45% 0.75 6.92 1.64% 58.23% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 VIETCAP 2011 4.07% 0.28% 0.81 7.23 0.69% 19.59% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 VIETCAP 2012 2.70% 0.35% 0.84 7.32 1.59% 77.66% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 VIETCAP 2013 1.90% 0.54% 0.86 7.36 1.00% 28.93% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 VIETCAP 2014 4.11% 0.54% 0.87 7.41 0.45% 29.46% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 VIETCAP 2015 4.25% 0.42% 0.89 7.46 0.63% 22.12% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 VIETCAP 2016 4.33% 0.36% 0.84 7.52 0.18% 12.78% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 VIETCAP 2017 3,94% 0,62% 0.92 7,60 0,13% 39,92% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 EAB 2007 0.98% 0.23% 0.88 7.44 1.55% 123.62% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 EAB 2008 0.44% 0.77% 0.90 7.54 1.21% 43.19% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 EAB 2009 2.55% 0.81% 0.90 7.63 1.55% 34.35% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 EAB 2010 1.33% 0.80% 0.90 7.75 1.38% 11.54% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 EAB 2011 1.60% 1.01% 0.91 7.82 1.18% 14.83% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 EAB 2012 1.69% 1.29% 0.91 7.84 1.44% 15.11% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 EAB 2013 3.95% 1.20% 0.92 7.87 0.83% 4.74% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 EAB 2014 3.99% 1.09% 0.94 7.94 0.44% -2.26% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 EAB 2015 3.76% 1.14% 0.96 7.96 0.03% 8.80% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 EAB 2016 4.55% 1.09% 0.93 7.99 0.22% -2.26% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 EAB 2017 MSB 2007 3.76% 0.20% 0.89 7.24 0.93% 126.02% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 MSB 2008 2.08% 0.26% 0.94 7.51 0.98% 71.72% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 MSB 2009 2.78% 0.27% 0.94 7.81 0.97% 112.95% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 MSB 2010 3.42% 0.27% 0.95 8.06 1.21% 33.34% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 MSB 2011 2.65% 0.32% 0.92 8.06 1.00% 18.61% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 MSB 2012 2.42% 0.68% 0.92 8.04 0.70% -23.33% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 MSB 2013 2.30% 0.68% 0.91 8.03 0.21% -5.30% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 MSB 2014 2.21% 0.51% 0.88 8.03 0.31% -14.23% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 MSB 2015 2.02% 0.58% 0.87 8.02 0.13% 19.49% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 MSB 2016 1.95% 0.49% 0.85 7.97 0.11% 25.02% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 MSB 2017 1,33% 0,38% 0.88 8,05 0,15% 3,11% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 KLB 2007 0.68% 0.33% 0.71 6.34 2.20% 124.50% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 KLB 2008 1.22% 0.39% 0.64 6.47 2.45% 62.41% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 KLB 2009 1.61% 0.39% 0.85 6.87 1.27% 122.03% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 KLB 2010 1.17% 0.49% 0.74 7.10 1.22% 43.78% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 KLB 2011 1.11% 0.53% 0.81 7.25 1.55% 19.91% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 KLB 2012 2.77% 0.76% 0.81 7.27 2.21% 15.23% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 KLB 2013 2.93% 0.59% 0.84 7.33 1.89% 25.25% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 KLB 2014 2.47% 0.59% 0.85 7.36 1.47% 11.53% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 KLB 2015 1.95% 0.54% 0.87 7.40 0.76% 19.90% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 KLB 2016 1.13% 0.56% 0.89 7.48 0.65% 21.88% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 KLB 2017 1,06% 0,59% 0.90 7,57 0,40% 24,89% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 TECHCOM 2007 0.66% 0.00% 0.91 7.60 1.48% 135.58% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 TECHCOM 2008 1.41% 0.55% 0.92 7.97 1.29% 105.47% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 TECHCOM 2009 1.65% 0.41% 0.94 8.18 1.84% 25.74% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 TECHCOM 2010 2.00% 0.41% 0.94 8.18 1.38% 0.00% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 22,717.29 TECHCOM 2011 2.31% 0.49% 0.93 8.26 1.38% 19.88% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 TECHCOM 2012 2.83% 0.63% 0.93 8.26 1.75% 7.58% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 TECHCOM 2013 2.70% 0.75% 0.91 8.20 0.43% 1.21% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 TECHCOM 2014 3.71% 0.55% 0.91 8.25 0.41% 14.85% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 TECHCOM 2015 2.41% 0.61% 0.91 8.28 0.62% 41.38% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 TECHCOM 2016 1.66% 0.64% 0.92 8.37 0.80% 27.13% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 TECHCOM 2017 1,58% 0,70% 0.90 8,43 1,34% 12,78% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 NAMA 2007 0.17% 0.15% 0.87 6.72 1.01% 31.80% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 NAMA 2008 1.76% 0.34% 0.78 6.77 1.43% 38.94% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 NAMA 2009 1.94% 0.23% 0.88 7.04 0.16% 33.69% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 NAMA 2010 2.04% 0.37% 0.85 7.16 0.51% 5.77% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 NAMA 2011 2.18% 0.28% 0.83 7.28 0.96% 17.79% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 NAMA 2012 2.84% 0.43% 0.80 7.20 1.26% 9.65% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 NAMA 2013 2.48% 0.27% 0.89 7.46 1.13% 68.95% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 NAMA 2014 1.48% 0.40% 0.91 7.57 0.47% 37.09% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 NAMA 2015 1.47% 0.55% 0.90 7.55 0.50% 31.55% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 NAMA 2016 0.91% 0.91% 0.92 7.63 0.55% 15.21% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 NAMA 2017 2,94% 1,55% 0.93 7,74 0,07% 51,19% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 OCB 2007 0.35% 0.36% 0.86 7.07 1.61% 62.16% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 OCB 2008 1.39% 0.69% 0.84 7.00 1.43% 13.76% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 OCB 2009 2.87% 0.84% 0.82 7.10 0.64% 18.84% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 OCB 2010 2.64% 0.53% 0.84 7.29 1.63% 13.39% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 OCB 2011 2.05% 0.69% 0.85 7.41 1.55% 19.52% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 OCB 2012 2.25% 1.14% 0.86 7.44 1.19% 24.51% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 OCB 2013 2.80% 0.63% 0.88 7.52 0.84% 17.06% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 OCB 2014 2.90% 0.78% 0.90 7.59 0.74% 6.37% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 OCB 2015 3.00% 0.49% 0.91 7.69 0.56% 29.03% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 OCB 2016 1.90% 0.52% 0.93 7.80 0.42% 39.04% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 OCB 2017 1,51% 0,48% 0.93 7,93 0,61% 25,13% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 SGB 2007 0.77% 0.62% 0.86 7.01 1.91% 51.76% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 SGB 2008 0.42% 0.64% 0.87 7.05 1.67% 7.51% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 SGB 2009 0.69% 1.02% 0.84 7.08 1.44% 22.81% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 SGB 2010 1.78% 0.87% 0.79 7.23 1.74% 7.55% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 SGB 2011 1.91% 1.54% 0.78 7.19 4.73% 6.95% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 SGB 2012 4.75% 0.74% 0.76 7.17 1.98% -2.88% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 SGB 2013 2.93% 0.69% 0.76 7.17 2.00% -1.76% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 SGB 2014 2.24% 0.59% 0.78 7.20 1.18% 5.27% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 SGB 2015 2.08% 0.52% 0.81 7.25 1.14% 3.38% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 SGB 2016 1.88% 0.54% 0.82 7.28 0.24% 7.94% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 SGB 2017 2,63% 0,55% 0.84 7,33 0,73% 12,54% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 VPB 2007 0.58% 0.23% 0.88 7.26 1.12% 164.10% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 VPB 2008 0.49% 0.87% 0.87 7.27 1.25% -2.88% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 VPB 2009 3.40% 0.47% 0.91 7.44 0.77% 22.54% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 VPB 2010 1.63% 0.38% 0.91 7.78 1.07% 60.14% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 VPB 2011 1.20% 0.38% 0.93 7.92 0.84% 15.24% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 VPB 2012 1.82% 0.37% 0.94 8.01 0.97% 26.45% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 VPB 2013 2.72% 0.50% 0.94 8.08 0.63% 42.19% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 VPB 2014 2.81% 0.69% 0.94 8.21 0.84% 49.37% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 VPB 2015 2.54% 0.90% 0.93 8.29 0.77% 49.03% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 VPB 2016 2.69% 0.91% 0.92 8.36 1.24% 23.86% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 VPB 2017 2,91% 1,13% 0.89 8,44 1,72% 26,26% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 TPB 2009 0.12% 0.20% 0.85 7.03 2.79% 1059.5% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 TPB 2010 0.15% 0.33% 0.85 7.32 0.34% 63.65% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 TPB 2011 0.52% 0.24% 0.93 7.40 0.25% -29.86% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 TPB 2012 0.67% 0.61% 0.78 7.18 -5.51% 66.00% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 TPB 2013 3.66% 0.36% 0.88 7.51 0.77% 96.05% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 TPB 2014 1.97% 0.39% 0.92 7.71 1.19% 66.35% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 TPB 2015 1.01% 0.34% 0.94 7.88 1.04% 42.35% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 TPB 2016 0.66% 0.39% 0.95 8.02 0.74% 65.16% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 TPB 2017 0,71% 0,54% 0.95 8,09 0,53% 35,97% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 PGB 2007 0.09% 0.08% 0.88 6.67 1.06% 139.16% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 PGB 2008 1.10% 0.29% 0.83 6.79 0.87% 23.35% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 PGB 2009 1.40% 0.45% 0.90 7.02 1.06% 164.96% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 PGB 2010 1.23% 0.64% 0.87 7.21 1.68% 73.71% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 PGB 2011 1.42% 1.05% 0.85 7.25 1.34% 11.26% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 PGB 2012 2.06% 1.65% 0.83 7.28 2.54% 13.83% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 PGB 2013 8.44% 0.75% 0.87 7.40 1.25% 0.58% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 PGB 2014 2.98% 0.67% 0.87 7.41 0.15% 4.62% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 PGB 2015 2.48% 0.72% 0.86 7.39 0.51% 9.48% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 PGB 2016 2.75% 0.71% 0.86 7.39 0.17% 10.40% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 PGB 2017 2,47% 0,78% 0.88 7,47 0,49% 22,17% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 HDB 2007 0.29% 0.26% 0.95 7.14 1.69% 232.86% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 HDB 2008 0.31% 0.42% 0.83 6.98 0.88% -30.71% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 HDB 2009 1.93% 0.33% 0.91 7.28 0.63% 33.28% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 HDB 2010 1.10% 0.25% 0.93 7.54 1.02% 42.49% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 HDB 2011 0.83% 0.31% 0.92 7.65 0.78% 18.07% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 HDB 2012 2.11% 0.37% 0.90 7.72 0.95% 52.72% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 HDB 2013 2.35% 0.81% 0.90 7.94 0.62% 108.20% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 HDB 2014 3.53% 0.49% 0.91 8.00 0.25% -4.63% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 HDB 2015 2.27% 0.66% 0.91 8.03 0.48% 34.69% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 HDB 2016 1.05% 0.61% 0.93 8.18 0.59% 45.38% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 HDB 2017 1,46% 0,61% 0.92 8,28 0,61% 27,09% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 VIB 2007 1.50% 0.34% 0.94 7.59 0.88% 82.20% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 VIB 2008 1.24% 0.54% 0.93 7.54 0.79% 18.10% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 VIB 2009 1.84% 0.44% 0.95 7.75 0.49% 38.33% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 VIB 2010 1.28% 0.50% 0.93 7.97 0.82% 52.56% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 VIB 2011 2.25% 0.71% 0.92 7.99 0.84% 4.23% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 VIB 2012 2.51% 1.06% 0.87 7.81 0.66% -17.53% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 VIB 2013 2.62% 1.20% 0.90 7.89 0.80% 4.69% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 VIB 2014 2.82% 1.10% 0.89 7.91 0.07% 1.67% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 VIB 2015 2.51% 0.89% 0.90 7.93 0.65% 25.14% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 VIB 2016 2.07% 0.97% 0.92 8.02 0.62% 25.96% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 VIB 2017 2,58% 0,77% 0.93 8,09 0,54% 32,71% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 SCB 2007 0.31% 0.31% 0.90 7.41 1.00% 137.34% 12.60% 7.13% 16,077.58 SCB 2008 0.34% 0.46% 0.93 7.59 1.00% 19.51% 19.89% 5.66% 16,538.79 SCB 2009 0.57% 0.63% 0.92 7.74 1.20% 34.51% 6.52% 5.40% 17,862.83 SCB 2010 1.28% 1.28% 0.92 7.78 0.58% 5.96% 11.75% 6.42% 19,172.96 SCB 2011 11.40% 1.14% 0.92 8.16 0.46% 99.14% 18.13% 6.24% 20,695.50 SCB 2012 8.75% 0.66% 0.92 8.17 0.19% 33.43% 6.81% 5.25% 20,876.14 SCB 2013 6.10% 0.36% 0.93 8.26 0.04% 0.96% 6.04% 5.42% 21,009.38 SCB 2014 1.63% 0.30% 0.95 8.38 0.02% 50.56% 1.84% 5.98% 21,206.67 SCB 2015 0.49% 0.40% 0.98 8.49 0.04% 27.21% 0.60% 6.68% 21,967.33 SCB 2016 0.34% 0.58% 0.96 8.56 0.03% 30.34% 4.74% 6.21% 22,379.67 SCB 2017 0,68% 0,53% 0.97 8,65 0,02% 19,95% 3,53% 6,81% 22,717.29 ... VỀ CÁC YẾU TỐ TÁC ĐỘNG ĐẾN NỢ XẤU TẠI CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƯƠNG MẠI VIỆT NAM…………… 38 4.1 Thực trạng nợ xấu yếu tố tác động đến nợ xấu 25 NHTM Việt Nam……………………… 38 4.1.1 Thực trạng nợ xấu. .. HỌC KINH TẾ TP HỒ CHI MINH PHÙNG THÙY DUNG CÁC YẾU TỐ TÁC ĐỘNG ĐẾN NỢ XẤU TẠI CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƯƠNG MẠI VIỆT NAM Chuyên ngành: Tài – Ngân hàng (Ngân hàng) Mã số: 8340201 LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KINH TẾ... - Các nguyên nhân gây nên nợ xấu NHTM Việt Nam? - Nợ xấu NHTM Việt Nam chịu ảnh hưởng yếu tố mức độ tác động yếu tố nợ xấu sao? - Ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam phải làm để kiểm soát yếu tố tác