Tín dụng vi mô và mức sống của nông hộ ở việt nam

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY ***** Pham Tien Thanh MICROCREDIT AND WELFARE OF THE RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN VIETNAM PHD DISSERTATION IN ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY, 2018 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY ***** Pham Tien Thanh MICROCREDIT AND WELFARE OF THE RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN VIETNAM Major: Development Economics Code: 9310105 PHD DISSERTATION IN ECONOMICS ACADEMIC ADVISORS Dr PHAM KHANH NAM Assoc Prof Dr NGUYEN HUU DUNG HO CHI MINH CITY, 2018 i COMMITMENTS I hereby declare that this dissertation is my own work and it has not been previously submitted for a degree elsewhere While my work contains information from works done by other authors, all these references have been explicitly cited To the best of my knowledge, I would like to certify that the above statements are true The dissertation has been done under the supervision of Dr Pham Khanh Nam and Assoc.Prof Dr Nguyen Huu Dung, the University of Economics, Hochiminh City This work was also done under the advice of Assoc Prof Dr Katsuhiro Saito, the University of Tokyo during my fellowship period granted by the World Bank Robert S McNamara at the University of Tokyo, Japan Pham Tien Thanh ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my academic supervisors, reviewers, colleagues, family and friends for their support during the time I conduct my Ph.D dissertation iii TABLE OF CONTENTS COMMITMENTS i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii TABLE OF CONTENTS .iii ABBREVIATIONS viii LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF FIGURES xi CHAPTER - INTRODUCTION 1.1 Backgrounds 1.2 Research problems 1.2.1 Accessibility to microcredit .3 1.2.2 Microcredit and adoption of improved rice varieties .4 1.2.3 Impact of microcredit on households’ welfare 1.2.4 Microcredit and health shock 1.3 Research objectives .9 1.4 Scopes of research 1.5 Research data 10 1.6 Research methods 10 1.6.1 Quantitative methods 10 1.6.2 Qualitative methods 11 1.7 Contribution of the research 11 1.7.1 Theoretical contributions 11 1.7.2 Practical contributions 12 1.8 Organization of the research 13 CHAPTER – LITERATURE REVIEW 14 2.1 Overview of microcredit 14 2.1.1 Some definitions 14 2.2.2 Characteristics of microcredit 15 2.2 Theory 16 iv 2.2.1 Overview of rural credit market 16 2.2.2 Asymmetric information 19 2.2.3 Theories on accessibility to credit 21 2.2.3.1 Theory of Choice (Demand for Credit) 22 2.2.3.2 Theory of Credit Rationing 23 2.2.4 Theoretical framework of outreach of microcredit 26 2.2.5 Farm household model under credit constraint 27 2.2.5.1 Producer Problem 28 2.2.5.2 Consumer Problem 28 2.2.5.3 Worker Problem 29 2.2.5.4 Farm Household Model with Credit 30 2.3 Empirical studies 31 2.3.1 Determinants of rural households’ accessibility to microcredit 31 2.3.2 Impact of microcredit on adoption of the improved rice varieties 36 2.3.3 Impact of microcredit on living standard 38 2.3.1 Empirical studies in the world 39 2.3.2 Empirical studies in Vietnam 40 2.3.4 Impact of health shocks and role of microcredit 43 2.3.4.1 Impacts of health shocks 43 2.3.4.2 Strategies to cope with Health Shocks and Role of Microcredit .44 2.4 Definitions of welfare 47 2.5 Logical framework of impact evaluation of microcredit on welfare 48 CHAPTER – OVERVIEW OF MICROCREDIT 51 3.1 Microcredit in the world 51 3.2 Microcredit in rural Vietnam 53 3.2.1 Microcredit providers 53 3.2.2 Credit activities and clients 58 3.2.3 Poverty reduction role of microcredit 60 v CHAPTER – DETERMINANTS OF ACCESSIBILITY TO MICROCREDIT 61 4.1 Research method 61 4.1.1 Estimation strategy 62 4.1.2 Selection of variables 65 4.1.2.1 Dependent variable 65 4.1.2.2 Explanatory Variables 65 4.1.3 Research hypotheses 67 4.2 Research data 69 4.2.1 Data source 69 4.2.2 Research sample 70 4.2.3 Descriptive statistics 70 4.3 Results and discussions 73 CHAPTER – MICROCREDIT AND ADOPTION OF IMPROVED RICE VARIETIES 81 5.1 Research method 81 5.1.1 Estimation strategy 81 5.1.2 Selection of variables 85 5.1.2.1 Dependent variables 85 5.1.2.2 Independent variables 86 5.1.3 Research hypotheses 87 5.2 Research data 87 5.2.1 Data source 87 5.2.2 Research sample 87 5.2.3 Descriptive statistics 88 5.3 Results and discussions 90 CHAPTER – IMPACT EVALUATION OF MICROCREDIT ON WELFARE 102 6.1 Research method .102 6.1.1 Estimation strategy 102 6.1.1.1 Propensity Score Matching (PSM) 102 vi 6.1.1.2 Difference in Difference (DID) 103 6.1.1.3 PSM-DID 104 6.1.2 Selection of variables 105 6.1.2.1 Microcredit variable 105 6.1.2.2 Variables for calculation of propensity score 106 6.1.2.3 Welfare variables 106 6.1.3 Research hypotheses 107 6.2 Research data .108 6.2.1 Data source 108 6.2.2 Research sample 108 6.2.3 Descriptive statistics 109 6.3 Results and discussions .109 6.3.1 Propensity score and balancing test .109 6.3.2 Average impact of microcredit program 111 CHAPTER – ROLE OF MICROCREDIT IN MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF HEALTH SHOCKS .118 7.1 Research method .118 7.1.1 Estimation strategy 118 7.1.2 Selection of variable 120 7.1.2.1 Dependent variables 120 7.1.2.2 Health shocks variables 120 7.1.2.3 Microcredit variable 121 7.1.2.4 Other control (explanatory) variables 122 7.1.3 Research hypotheses 123 7.2 Research data .123 7.2.1 Data source .123 7.2.2 Research sample .124 7.2.3 Descriptive statistics .124 7.3 Results and discussions .126 vii 7.3.1 Are health shocks unanticipated? 126 7.3.2 First stage results using instrumental variables 127 7.3.3 Illness/ Disease/ Injury of working-age members (HS1W) 130 7.3.4 Illness/ Disease/ Injury of any members (HS1A) 133 CHAPTER – CONCLUSIONS 135 8.1 Objective 1: Determinants of accessibility o microcredit 135 8.1.1 Summary .135 8.1.2 Policy implications 136 8.1.3 Limitations and further studies 138 8.2 Objective 2: Microcredit and adoption of improved varieties 139 8.1.1 Summary .139 8.2.2 Policy implications 140 8.2.3 Limitations and further studies 141 8.3 Objective 3: Impact evaluation of microcredit on welfare 142 8.3.1 Summary .142 8.3.2 Policy implications 143 8.3.3 Limitations and further studies 144 8.4 Objective 4: Role of microcredit in mitigating the effects of health shocks 145 8.4.1 Summary .145 8.4.2 Policy implications 146 8.4.3 Limitations and further studies 146 REFERENCE 147 Reference in the word .147 Reference in Vietnam .165 Websites 169 APPENDIX 171 viii ABBREVIATIONS Abbr Meanings MF Microfinance MFIs Microfinance Institutions PCFs People’s Credit Funds ROSCAs Rotating Savings Credit Associations VBSP Vietnam Bank for Social Policies VBARD Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development VPSC Postal Savings Company 223 APPENDIX 7.4 First stage estimates using IV for HS1A IV Model Model 1a Commune Poverty Rate Distance to Bank HS1A MARI GENDER ETHI GRAD SIZE SFEM SAGE12 SAGE6 LAND1 LAND2 HOME POOR 224 ISURE CO135 COFAR ROAD IMARK REGI2 REGI3 REGI4 REGI5 REGI6 Constant VFE Observations F(i,df) Prob>F Note : Robust t-statistics in parentheses; *, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively a F-test for H0: Week instrumentts If F-test > 10, reject H0, and vice versa With 225 APPENDIX 7.5 Impact of HS1W and the Role of Microcredit – VFE VARIABLES HS1W (β1) HS1W*CR (β2) MARI GENDER ETHI GRAD SIZE SFEM SAGE1 SAGE3 LAND1 LAND2 HOME POOR INSU EINC TINC -0.0956* (-1.829) -0.00395 (-0.688) 0.0655 (1.362) 0.0744* (1.811) 0.161 (1.590) 0.00291 (0.617) 0.0658*** (4.055) -0.0274 (-1.532) -0.0226 (-1.373) -0.0388* (-1.690) -0.0591** (-2.309) 0.00512 (0.326) -0.102 (-0.771) -0.0695* (-1.678) -0.0230** 226 (-2.108) 0.337 (0.396) 0.131 (0.406) -0.131 (-0.191) 0.518*** (3.014) CO135 COFAR ROAD IMARK REGI1 is based REGI2 REGI3 REGI4 REGI5 REGI6 Constant Observations Note: T-statistics in parentheses *, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively -0.118 (-0.157) -0.264 (-0.314) -0.811 (-0.981) -0.793 (-0.969) -0.714 (-0.713) 0.00334 (0.00336) 3,021 227 APPENDIX 7.6 Impact of HS1W and the Role of Microcredit – Without VFE VARIABLES HS1W (β1) HS1W*CR (β2) MARI GENDER ETHI GRAD SIZE SFEM SAGE1 SAGE3 LAND1 LAND2 HOME POOR INSU EINC TINC -0.0654* (-1.764) -0.00237 (-0.505) 0.0370 (0.891) 0.0670* (1.893) 0.123*** (3.095) -0.00216 (-0.618) 0.0338*** (2.640) -0.00646 (-0.455) -0.0261** (-1.992) -0.0652*** (-3.463) -0.0359** (-2.123) 0.00284 (0.310) -0.0758 (-0.848) -0.0454 (-1.307) -0.00410 228 (-0.498) 0.0297 (0.868) 0.0618** (2.003) 0.00929 (0.254) -0.0350 (-1.495) CO135 COFAR ROAD IMARK REGI1 is based REGI2 REGI3 REGI4 REGI5 REGI6 Constant Observations Note: T-statistics in parentheses *, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively -0.0459 (-1.109) -0.0309 (-0.888) 0.115** (2.231) -0.0644 (-1.308) -0.0357 (-0.915) 0.0184 (0.160) 3,021 229 APPENDIX 7.7 Impact of HS1A and the Role of Microcredit – VFE VARIABLES HS1A (β1) HS1A*CR (β2) MARI GENDER ETHI GRAD SIZE SFEM SAGE1 SAGE3 LAND1 LAND2 HOME POOR INSU EINC TINC -0.0159 (-0.407) -0.00136 (-0.273) 0.0653 (1.352) 0.0726* (1.760) 0.162 (1.590) 0.00296 (0.625) 0.0627*** (3.880) -0.0283 (-1.577) -0.0169 (-1.041) -0.0301 (-1.326) -0.0591** (-2.317) 0.00487 (0.309) -0.105 (-0.797) -0.0679 (-1.636) -0.0238** 230 (-2.171) 0.319 (0.378) 0.133 (0.427) -0.114 (-0.167) 0.561*** (3.544) CO135 COFAR ROAD IMARK REGI1 is based REGI2 REGI3 REGI4 REGI5 REGI6 Constant Observations Note: T-statistics in parentheses *, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively -0.167 (-0.226) -0.382 (-0.459) -0.902 (-1.117) -0.835 (-1.036) -0.742 (-0.748) -0.00119 (-0.00120) 3,021 231 APPENDIX 7.8 Impact of HS1A and the Role of Microcredit – Without VFE VARIABLES HS1A (β1) HS1A*CR (β2) MARI GENDER ETHI GRAD SIZE SFEM SAGE1 SAGE3 LAND1 LAND2 HOME POOR INSU EINC TINC -0.00882 (-0.292) 0.000469 (0.120) 0.0365 (0.877) 0.0655* (1.852) 0.122*** (3.060) -0.00211 (-0.606) 0.0322** (2.518) -0.00780 (-0.549) -0.0214* (-1.646) -0.0596*** (-3.204) -0.0371** (-2.187) 0.00299 (0.330) -0.0796 (-0.892) -0.0457 (-1.310) -0.00516 232 (-0.627) 0.0313 (0.914) 0.0627** (2.022) 0.00856 (0.233) -0.0341 (-1.457) CO135 COFAR ROAD IMARK REGI1 is based REGI2 REGI3 REGI4 REGI5 REGI6 Constant Observations Note: T-statistics in parentheses *, **, and *** : significant at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively -0.0442 (-1.067) -0.0321 (-0.924) 0.115** (2.221) -0.0646 (-1.306) -0.0416 (-1.047) 0.0249 (0.216) 3,021 233 APPENDIX 8.1 Access to Credit by Poverty status Source Microcredit Non-microcredit Formal Informal Any Sources Total 234 APPENDIX 8.2 Difficulties in Accessing to Agricultural Input (Seed, Fertilizers) Difficulties No difficulties Lack of suppliers Prices too high Not enough information Not able to buy on credit Not enough access to credit Poor transport infrastructure Other Difficulties Total ... Credit Funds ROSCAs Rotating Savings Credit Associations VBSP Vietnam Bank for Social Policies VBARD Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development VPSC Postal Savings Company ix LIST OF TABLES... CHAPTER – OVERVIEW OF MICROCREDIT 51 3.1 Microcredit in the world 51 3.2 Microcredit in rural Vietnam 53 3.2.1 Microcredit providers 53 3.2.2 Credit activities and... world 52 Table 3.2 - Top 10 microcredit providers in the world 52 Table 3.3 - Microcredit providers in Vietnam 59 Table 3.4 - Living standards of clients before and after borrowing