De khai thae t i l m nang cua thi trudng tin dung ndng thdn, eae TCTD can ap dung cac sang kie'n mdi de giam bdi; viec qua phu thupc vao tai san the chap khi ra quye't dinh cho vay[r]
(1)I J NGHIEN CUfU - TRAO DOI
PMAM T1âM âAâ f t i f Đ @yiftT đmU
immđ w6m vm im đmđ âumn TMUT©
PGS.,TS L e K h i i d n g N i n h D H C a n Thof T h S P h a m V a n DvTcfng UBND h u y e n C h d Mdfi, A n G i a n g
B di viet phdn tich cdc yeu td quyet dinh liiong vdn vay Un dung chinh thdc ciia
nong hg hdng cdch svC dung sdlieu stf cdp thu thdp tiX 480 nong hg dAn Giang Ket qud phdn tich cho thdy cdc yeu td nhit gidi tinh cda chii ho, trinh dg hgc vdn, dia vi xa hgi cua chu hg hay thdnh vien hg, thu nhap, gid tri tdi sdn the chdp, muc dich sd dung von vd sd ldn vay co y nghia quyet dinh ddi vdi liictng vdn vay tin dung chinh thdc cua cdc nong hg Ngodi ra, cdc hg chgn vay tin dung phi chinh thdc thiidng it vay chinh thdc vi khong du khd ndng ddp iing yeu cdu cua cdc td chdc tin dung (TCTD) chinh thdc nhit the chdp hay co muc dich sd dung vdn ro rdng Tren ca sd ket qud phdn tich, bdi viet de xudt cdc gidi phdp de giup cdc nong hg vay vdn diigtc de ddng han
Gidti t h i e u
Nong nghiep, nong dan va ndng thdn (tam ndng) cd vai trd va vi tri rat quan trpng ddi vdi n i n kinh te qudc dan nen da nhan dupc suf quan tam tii nhilu phia Nhd vay, khu vUc da gat hai nhiing tUu to ldn ap dung cac tien bp khoa bpc - ky thuat de lam tang sd lupng, chat lupng ndng san hang hda va nang eao mdc sdng eua ndng hp eung nhu thuc day su tang trudng cua nganh ndi rieng va cda n i n kinh te xa hpi ndi chung (Le Xuan Dinh, 2008) Cd dupe ke't qua nhu vay la nhd sU ddng gdp dang ke cua kinh te hp ma nha't la eae ndng hp
Trong thdi gian qua, ehinh saeh phat trien kinh te hp gia dinh eua Chinh phu da tao diiu kien de cae TCTD titog bude hoan thien phuOng thdc eho vay nen sd hp tiep can ngudn tin dung chinh thdc mpt tang Tuy nhien, thue te cho tha'y viec md rpng eho vay dd'i vdi ndng hp van edn gap nhilu trd ngai vi mdn vay nhd ngudi vay lai sdng rai rac tren cae
dia ban ndng thdn rdng nen ehi phi vay eao Ngoai ra, cac ndng hp thudng xuyen chiu anh hudng bdi thdi tie't, dieh benh nhung lai thieu co che bao hiem cay trdng, vat nudi nen hoat dpng cho vay d khu vUe nong thon ludn tiem an rui ro eao - cac TCTD cd xu hudng han ehe cho vay He qua eua thUc te la cac ndng hp dac biet la cac hp ngheo ludn phai dd'i mat vdi khdng it khd khan vay vdn mac dii vdn se giup tao budc dot pha eho qua trinh ehuyen dieh eo eau san xua't nong nghiep eung nhu phat trien ndng thdn Han ehe lam cho san xuat ndng nghiep ndi chung van cdn d tinh trang manh mun, nhd le vi thieu vdn dau tu Ben canh do, nhilu ndng hp cd thu nhap tha'p, tich luy khdng du trang trai ehi phi cupc sd'ng va dap dng nhu eau vdn cho san xua't nen phai vay phi chinh thdc, ban lua non, ban tai san (dat dai) bay di lam thue vdi thu nhap bap benh (Mikkel Barslund va Finn Tarp, 2008)
Dupng va Yoichi Izumida, 2002; Mikkel Barslund va Finn Tarp, 2008 ) da tien hanh tim hieu eae yeu to lam han che viee tie'p can tin dung cua cae nong hp Tuy nhien, cac nghien cdu chi de cap den cac yeu td nhu tai san the chap, thu nhap, sd nhan khau, sd ngUdi dp tudi lao dpng, ty le ngUdi sd'ng phu thupc, hpe van cua ehu hp ma chua xem xet eae yeu to' cd tinh quye't dinh ddi vdi viee tiep can tin dung chinh thiic cua cac ndng hp nhu dia vi xa hpi eua chu hp hay vien hp, khoang each tif noi d eua hp de'n thi tran, thi xa, thdi gian eU tru tai dia phupng hay sd lan vay Trong pham vi bai viet nay, ehung tdi se bd sung them cac yeu td quyet dinh lUpng vd'n vay cua cac ndng hp va tiif dd d l xua't cae giai phap md rpng cP hpi tiep can tin dung chinh thiic eho cac ndng hp, ma eu the la tai tinh An Giang
Cd sd ly t h u y e t v a m o h i n h n g h i e n ciiu
Chinh vi nhiing ly tren nen De nhan dang cac yeu td quyet mpt sd nghien cdu (Pham Bao dinh lupng vdn vay tin dung Cong nghe ngan hang
(2)NGHIEN CUfU - TRAO DOI I
ehinh thufc eua cac ndng hp, bai viet suf dung md hinh hdi quy bao gdm cae bien sd dl cap cac nghien cdu trUdc day Cu the la xem xet anh hudng eua eae yeu td n h u dien tieh dat, tudi va trinh dp bpc van eua ehu hp, sd n h a n khau, gia tri dan gia sue den lupng vd'n vay eua eae nong hp d nUde ta (Pham Bao Duong va Yoichi Izumida, 2002) Qua dd nhan tha'y tac dpng eua cac ye'u to' nhu gia tri tai san sinh lpi, md'i quan he giiia ngUdi vay va ngudi cho vay, thu nhap va ehi tieu cua hp gia dinh de'n lupng vd'n vay tin dung ehinh thdc cua khoang 3.000 ndng hp d 10 tinh cua Trung Qud'c (Li Rui va Zhu Xi, 2010) Ket hpp eae bien sd tren vdi eae quan sat td thUe te d nUdc ta ndi ehung va tinh An Giang ndi rieng, bai viet hinh t h a n h md hinh nghien cdu ed dang:
anh hudng eua tudi ehu hd den luong vdn vay ehi ed the Idem nghiem bang sd lieu thUe te GIOITINH la gidi tinh cua ehu hp - la bien gia cd gia tri la neu chu hp la nam va la neu chu hp la nd ndng thdn ndi chung va ndng thdn An Giang ndi rieng, phu nii thudng cd trinh dp hoc van thap, phan ldn chi lam npi trp va ddng vai tro thd yeu hoat dpng san xuat cung nhU qua trinh quyet dinh cua hp Hp it am hieu thu tue vay vdn, khdng ed quan he xa hpi rpng nen ehu hp la nam se ed cP hpi tiep can tin dung ehinh thdc tdt hPn va vay dupe luong vdn ldn hon, ky vpng cua nghien cilu la o^ >0 DANTOC la bien gia cd gia tri la neu chu hp la ngUdi Kinh va la neu chu hp la ngudi dan toe (Khmer, Cham ) He sd a„ LUONGVAY = UQ + a^TUOI •+- a2GIOITINH -F a^DANTOC •+• + a^HOCVAN -F a^DIA VLXH -F a^KCACH + a^TGCUTRU -F (1) + UgNHANKHAU + a^THUNHAP -F a^QDIENTICHDAT -F
+ a^^MUCDICHVAY + a^^SOLANVAY + a^^VAYPHICT
Co sd ly thuyet cila md hinh (1) nhu sau:
LUONGVAY la bien phu thupc ludng lupng vdn ma cac ndng hp vay td eae TCTD chinh thdc (trieu ddng/nam)
TUOI la tudi eua ehu hp, chd hp ldn tudi thudng ed nhieu kinh nghiem viee vay vd'n va cd mdi quan he xa hpi rpng nen cd the vay dupe nhieu hon so vdi nhufng ngUdi tre tudi Do dd, he sd a^ dupe ky vpng cd gia tri dUPng Tuy nhien, eung cd lap luan cho rang eung vdi tudi tae va kinh nghiem, cac hp gia dinh thudng tieh luy dUpc nhieu tai san cung nhU vdn nen cd the it cd nhu eau vay Khi dd, he sd a^ ed gia tri am NhU vay, theo eae nha nghien edu, xu hUdng
cua bien cung dupc ky vpng cd gia t r i duOng vi thUc te' d n d n g t h d n An Giang cho tha'y thu n h a p , dieu k i e n p h a t t r i e n s a n xua't va k h a n a n g t r a np eiia eae hp ngudi Kinh eao hon eae hp ngudi d a n tpc (mac du cae hp ngUdi d a n tpc ludn n h a n dupc sU Uu a i cua Chinh phu) n e n cac hp ngUdi Kinh de vay dupc lupng vd'n nhieu hon
HOCVAN cd gia t r i la ne'u ehu hp cd t r i n h dp hpe van td cap trd xud'ng va cd gia t r i la ne'u chu hp cd hpe va'n t r e n ca'p (bao gdm ea t r u n g hpe ehuyen nghiep) Rd r a n g , n h d n g hp vdi chu hp cd t r i n h dp hpe va'n eao se n h a y ben hpn viee tie'p thu cae tie'n bp khoa hoc - ky t h u a t
tie'p can t h o n g t i n t h i trUdng eung n h u t h d n g tin t i n d u n g n e n vay dupc n h i e u hon so vdi cae chu hp cd t r i n h dp hpe va'n tha'p; he so' a^ cua bie'n HOCVAN dupe ky vpng cd gia tri duong
DIAVTXH la dia vi xa hpi cua chu hp - bien gia ed gia tri la neu chu hp hay vien hp cd gio ehde vu cP quan nha nUdc hay cae td chdc doan the dia phuong hay trung uong va neu ngUpc lai se cd gia tri la Khi chu hp hay vien hp cd dia vi xa hpi se hieu rd thu tue vay va de dupe bao lanh tin dung nen se vay dupe nhieu neu ed nhu cau, he so' o^ dupe ky vpng ed gia tri duong KCACH la khoang each td noi d cua hp den trung tam huyen hay thi td (tinh bang km) - nPi dat tru sd cua cae TCTD Khoang each tiif npi d cua ho den trung tam huyen hay cac thi td cang xa thi eae TCTD cang gap nhilu khd khan viee tham dinh nang lUe tra np eung nhu tai san the chap cua hp nen se ban che cho vay Ddng thdi, ban than hp cung it cd dpng co vay hPn bdi tdn kem xa xdi va it cd thdng tin v l cac TCTD de biet thu tuc vay; he so' a^ cua bien dUpc ky vpng cd gia tri am
TGCUTRU la thdi gian cU tru (tinh td nam bat dau sinh sd'ng tai dia phuong) - he sd o^ dupc ky vpng ed gia tri duong vi nhutng hp eU tru lau nam d dia phUPng se cd quan he gan gui, than thiet vdi nhieu ngUdi, d l chiing minh nang luc tra np nen cac TCTD ed day du thdng tin (hay it bi anh hudng cua thdng tin bat ddi xiing) va se cho vay nhieu horn
(3)t i i NGHIEN curu TRAO DOI
TCTD it cho vay tieu dung dd'i vdi nong hp va neu cd thi cung khdng nhieu Ben canh dd, hp ngheo thUdng cd rui ro tin dung cao vi kha n a n g t r a np tha'p nen cac TCTD cang b a n ehe eho vay; he so' a^ ciia bie'n dUpc ky vpng mang gia tri am
THUNHAP la thu n h a p b i n h quan dau ngUdi cua hp (trieu ddng/nam) P h a n ldn cac hp cd thu n h a p cao d i u l a m a n hieu qua nen can lupng vd'n ldn, ddng t h d i k h a n a n g t r a np eung eao n e n cae TCTD cd xu hudng eho vay nhieu hPn Do dd, he so' ttg cua bie'n dupe ky vpng cd gia t r i duPng DIENTICH la tong dien tich da't cua hp (tinh b a n g m^) dupe ky vpng se ed he so' ajQ>0 nhieu da't nghia la ed nhieu t a i san the' chap ed gia t r i nen se vay dupe n h i l u hpn vi dd'i vdi cac TCTD chinh thdc lupng vo'n vay nhieu hay it phu thupc vao gia t r i t a i san the chap
MUCDICHVAY la bie'n gia ed gia t r i ne'u vay vdi muc dich s a n xua't va ngupc lai (tieu dung hay t r a np) se cd gia t r i He sd a^^ cua bien dupc ky vpng cd gia t r i duong vi cac TCTD chinh thdc t h u d n g Uu tien cho vay de san xuat
SOLANVAY la sd lan vay cua hp Nhflng hp da tifng vay va tra np dung ban thi se dl vay dupc nhieu lan va lupng vay se tang gay dUng dupe uy tin ddi vdi cac TCTD (sd lan vay cung la mpt nhiing ye'u td quan trpng de tri cho vay theo mdi quan he ma cae nghien edu da ehi ra), bien ed he sd Uj^^ dupc ky vpng cd gia tri dUOng VAYPCT la bien gia ed gia tri la neu hp ed vay phi ehinh thdc, la neu khdng vay phi chinh thdc; he so' a^^ cua bien dupc ky vpng cd gia tri am Vi thUc te d An Giang cho tha'y cac hp vay phi chinh thdc thudng it vay tin dung chinh thdc vi khdng dap dng dupc yeu eau cua cac TCTD
ve the chap, thu nhap hay ke hoach sd dung vdn
P h i i d n g p h a p n g h i e n cvtu Phiicfngphdp thu thdp sdlieu Bai viet sd dung ea sd lieu thd cap va so' lieu so cap So' lieu thd cap thu t h a p td n h i l u ngudn, bao gdm eae so' lieu thd'ng ke dinh ky va ket qua eua cae nghien cdu cd lien quan So lieu sP cap dupe thu t h a p bang each phdng van 480 hp dupe chpn theo phUPng p h a p chpn mau ngdu nhien don gian td cac ndng hp t i n h An Giang
Phitcfng phdp phdn tich Tren eP sd so' lieu so cap thu thap dupe, nghien cdu tien hanh Udc lupng md hinh (1) bang each sd dung md hinh Tobit (bay edn gpi la md hinh Idem duyet) vdi phan m i m Stata Tobit la md hinh phu hpp nha't dupc sd dung de kiem dinh sU anh hudng cua cae bie'n doe lap den bien phu thupc trudng hpp gia tri cua bien phu thupc bi kiem duyet hay khdng dupe phep nhd hon mpt gia tri n h a t dinh nao dd (Damodar N Gujarati, 2004) Trong trudng hpp bai viet nay, gia tri cua bien phu thupc (lupng vdn vay) chi cd the ldn hon hoac bang khdng vi ngUdi vay ed the vay mpt sd t i l n nao dd hay khdng Ke't q u a n g h i e n cvtxx v a t h a o l u a n
Khdi qudt ve mau khdo sdt Theo ke't qua khao sat, sd nhan khau binh quan la 3,83 ngudi/hp va sd lao dpng binh quan la 2,86 ngUdi/hp, cho tha'y lire lupng lao dpng cua cac ndng hp d An Giang kha ddi dao; dp tudi binh quan cua chu hp la kha ldn (khoang 48 tudi) va chu hp la nam ehie'm den 84,6% sd hd
(4)NGHIEN CIJ^U - TRAO DOI III
dupe khao sat Tinh binh quan, thdi gian sdng d dia phUPng cua cae hp la 35 nam, dd cd hp da sdng tdi 76 nam Ket qua khao sat cho tha'y 367 hp (chiem 76,5% sd hp dupc khao sat) cd sd dung dien thioai eho sinh boat hang eung nhU de nam bat cae thdng tin can thiet khae
Dien tieh da't binh quan eua hp n a m 2008 la 9.565,6 m^ da't ndng nghiep la 9.186,54 m^ da't mat nUde la 19,77 m^ dat thd eU va cae loai da't khae la 259,29 m^ Dien tieh da't binh quan cua hp n a m 2009 la 9.475,44 m^ va da't ndng nghiep la 9.043,41 m^ Nam 2009 dien tich da't ndi chung
B^ng 1: Kho k h a n thufdng gap n h a t cda cac n o n g ho d An Giang
Ti6u thtfc
Gid san pham thfi'p v^ khong on dinh Th^nh vidn gia dinh bi mS't viec lam Th&nh vign gia dinh o'm dau
Mat mua hay dich benh Thien tai (lu lut, han hdn ) Khde
Tong cong
Sd'ho
242 103 72 40 18 480
Ty trpng
(%) 50,4 21,5 15,0 8,3 3,8 1,0 100,0
Nguon: Tinh todn tii so lieu khdo sdt cua tdc gid
Theo ket qua khao sat nam 2008, tdng tai san binh quan eua cac hp la 444,21 trieu ddng va thu nhap binh quan la 55,96 trieu ddng/nam; n a m 2009, tdng tai san binh quan eua cae hp la 484,1 trieu ddng (tang 9%) va thu nhap la 60,9 trieu ddng/nam (tang 8,8%) Tai san va thu nhap cua eae hp nam 2009 tang len mpt phan tae dpng cua gdi kich cau cua Chinh phu thong qua viec hd trp vd'n eho ndng hp de phat trien san xua't n h a m khae phue hau qua eua cupc khung hoang kinh te vda qua Ket qua khao sat cung cho tha'y su phan hda giau ngheo d ndng thdn An Giang kha ro net nhu mpt sd ho ed tai san rat ldn (3.870 trieu ddng) va thu n h a p r a t eao (504 trieu ddng/nam) mpt sd hp iai khdng cd tai san va thu n h a p r a t tha'p (khoang trieu ddng/nam) vi chi di lam thue theo mua vu
va da't ndng nghiep eua hd ndi rieng giam so n a m 2008 bi ban bdt bdi san xua't khdng hieu qua, Chinh phu khuye'n khich ehuyen dich cP eau cay trdng hay tach hp eon cai lap gia dinh Trong san xua't va ddi sd'ng, eae ndng hp d An Giang phai dd'i mat vdi khdng it khd khan (Bang 1) nha't la gia san pham tha'p va khong dn dinh hay cac khd khan khac nhu vien gia dinh bi mat viec, dm dau, mat mua dieh benh, thien tai anh hudng khdng nhd den ddi sdng va eo hpi tiep can tin dung chinh thdc (giam sut nang lue tra np bdi thu
nhap tha'p va khong dn dinh) Ngoai cae khd khan cd the khac phue dupe bdi chinh ban t h a n cac ndng hp thi viec gia san pham thap va bap benh ddi hdi phai ed mpt ehinh sach vi md he't sde hieu qua cua Chinh phu tren ca phUPng dien san xua't lan tieu thu
Tinh hinh tham gia tin dung cua cdc nong hg d An Giang
Gidng nhu nhilu nui, thi trudng tin dung d An Giang cd ca'u true ludng the, tin dung chinh thdc va phi chinh thdc cung tdn tai ben canh sU hien dien (khdng dang ke) cua tin dung ban ehinh thdc Theo ket qua khao sat, hau bet cac hp diu ed vay td cac ngudn chinh thdc, phi chinh thdc hoac ban ehinh thdc Cu the, n a m 2009 ed 448 hp vay (chiem 93,3% so' hp dupe khao sat) va so' hp khdng vay 32 hp (chiem 6,7% so' hp dupe khao sat), chdng td nhu eau vdn cua cac ndng hp rat ldn - mpt thi trudng t i l m nang de cae TCTD khai thae
Bang eho tha'y mac du ed den 333 hp vay tin dung ehinh thdc (ehie'm 69,4% so' hp dupe khao sat) nhung cung cd 199 hp ed vay tin dung phi chinh thdc (41,5%), so' hp vay ban chinh thdc la 27 (5,6%) Nhu vay, mac du tin dung ehinh thdc rat quan trpng dd'i vdi cac nong hp nhUng tin dung phi chinh thdc vSn gid mpt vai trd nha't dinh d ndng thdn An Giang Tin dung ban ehinh thdc khdng phd bien vi loai hinh chi boat dpng thdng qua cae td chdc xa hpi hay cac B&ng 2: N g u o n tin d u n g ciia n n g ho An Giang
Nguon tin dung Chinh thdc
Phi chinh thdc Ban chinh thdc
So ho 333 199 27
% so ho diidc khao sat 69,4
41,5 5,6
(5)1 NGHIEN CUTU - TRAO DOI
doan the nhu hdi phu nd, hpi ndng dan hay doan nien Nhdng nam gan day Chinh phu da quan tam hon de'n khu vUc nong thdn, ed nhilu TCTD chinh thdc boat dpng tai day, hinh thdc xet duyet cho vay cung dl hPn nhung cac ndng hp v i n tim den vdi tin dung phi chinh thdc vi thu tuc vay don gian, nhanh chdng va khdng can the chap Dae biet, vao mdi dau vu, nhu cau tin diing d ndng thon rat eao nhung cac TCTD chinh thdc thudng khdng dap dng du, dd cac ndng hp phai vay phi chinh thdc vi khdng the cham tre tinh thdi vu cua san xuat ndng nghiep Hay cd nhu cau dot xuat (dm dau, ma chay, cudi hdi, chi phi hoc hanh eua eon cai.) nhieu hp phai vay phi chinh thdc vi can vay nhanh mpt sd tien nhd - dieu ma cac TCTD chinh
cac hd mudn vay, viec vay tin dung chinh thdc edn gap nhieu khd khan nhu ye'u td tai san the chap va mdi quan he vdi can bp tin dung (nhufng ngudi cd tham quyen nha't dinh quyet dinh cho vay) ddng vai trd then chd't ddi vdi viee tiep can tin dung chinh thdc cua eae nong hp d An Giang (Bang 3) Bang eho tha'y so' t i l n cao nhat ma nong hp vay dupc v l n la td cac TCTD chinh thdc (48,8 trieu ddng/hp/nam) vdi lai sua't kha tha'p (12,3%/nam) va ehi phi vay (bao gdm ehi phi di lai, an udng, t i l n chi eho can bp tin dung, t i l n mua hd so, le phi cdng chdng ) binh quan 0,43 trieu ddng/nam Sd t i l n vay td quy tin dung nhan dan la 30,5 trieu ddng/hp/nam vdi lai sua't la 17,9%/nam va ehi
J^'%
B a n g 3: N g u y e n n h a n cua v i e c k h o n g vay dvCdc tin d u n g c h i n h thiic
Tieu thdc Khong CO tai san the chap Khong quen can bo tin dung Khong vay dugc ma khong ro ly Khong biet thu tuc xin vay Khong biet vay a dau Khong duac bao lanh
Khong lap dugc ket hoach sd dung vdn
Khde Tong cpng
So'ho 88 35 1 147
Ty (%) 59,9 23,7 6,1 4,8 2,7 1,4 0,7 0,7 100,0
Nguon: Tinh todn tif so lieu kliao sdt cua tdc gid
phi vay la 0,24 trieu ddng Dieu mpt lan nda cho tha'y tin dung chinh thdc van la ngudn tin dung quan trpng ddi vdi cac ndng hp d An Giang Cdn ddi vdi tin dung phi chinh thdc, sd t i l n vay khong chenh lech nhilu gida cae ngudn (dao dpng td 15,8 den 28,1 trieu ddng/hp) nhUng iai sua't rat eao Dac biet, lai sua't vay td nhdng ngudi cho vay ehuyen nghiep len de'n 67,5%/nam va lai sua't eua hui la 61,2% ehi phi tham gia hui rat cao (bao gdm ea hue hdng eho ehu hui) Lai suat ma thdc khdng san sang dap dng vi
ehi phi cho vay eung nhu riii ro qua eao
Theo ket qua khao sat, ty le cac nong hp vay tin dung chinh thdc eao nha't nhung van ed 36,7% hp khdng mud'n vay khong CO thdi quen vay; 25,1% khdng ed nhu eau vay; 20,4% khdng vay sp khong du kha nang tra np; 7,5% khong vay khdng thieh thieu nP Dd'i vdi
B a n g 4: T h o n g tin v e h o a t d o n g v a y ciia ho
N g u o n v a y
Ngan h a n g thucfng mai Quy tin dung n h a n dan NgUdi cho vay chuyen nghiep Dai \f vat tU nong nghiep Thuong \Ai
Hui
NgUoi t h a n , ban be
So vo'n v a y b i n h q u a n ciia mdi ho (trieu ddng)
48,8
30,5
15,8
24,6 28,1 16,2
22,1
Lai s u a t b i n h qudn (% nam)
12,3 17,9 67,5 27,1 27,8 61,2 52,5
Ngudn: Tinh todn tu- so lieu lihdo sdt cua tdc gia
(6)NGHIEN CU^U - TRAO DOI 1
li
cac nong hd phai chiu mua tra cham vat tu ndng nghiep tiif eae dai ly hay thUPng lai eung khdng qua cao so vdi vay td n h d n g ngUdi eho vay chuyen nghiep, lan luot la 27,1% va 27,8%/nam Ke' den la lai suat p h a i t r a vay
Cae n d n g hd cd n h i e u h i n h t h d c de thu t h a p t h d n g tin tin d u n g nhUng vai trd cua eae ngudn t h d n g tin n a y l a i k h a e dd'i vdi t d n g ngudn vay Dd'i vdi tin dung ehinh thdc, n d n g ho n h a n dupe t h d n g t i n tin dung td Bang 5: Nguon thong tin tin dung dd'i vdi nong hp
Nguon thong tin
Tir chinh quyen dia phiiffng TCt ciic TCTD
TLT SU" gi(Ji thieu cua ngirfifi than Tif tim thong tin
Kh^c T6ng cong
Tin dung chinh thii'c SohO
97
152 145
86 0 480
Ty (%)
20,2 31,7 30,2 17,9 100,0
Tin d u n g phi chinh thiic So hO
12 63 261 142 480
Ty (%)
2,5 13,1 54,4 29,6 0,4 100,0 Nguon: Tmh todn til so li^u khdo sdt cua tdc gid
ngudi t h a n hay b a n be mac du tha'p hPn vay n h d n g ngUdi cho vay ehuyen nghiep nhUng eung len de'n 52,5%, chdng td md'i quan he xa hpi va gia dinh d n d n g t h d n An Giang n g a y cang ed xu hUdng dua t r e n loi ieh k i n h t e
ehinh cac TCTD, td sU gidi thieu cua ngudi t h a n , ehinh quyen dia phUPng va tU t i m t h d n g tin (Bang 5) Ke't qua n a y cho tha'y cac TCTD chinh thdc d An Giang da ed bude tie'n nha't dinh t r o n g viec tie'p can ngudi vay dac
b i e t la cae n d n g hd T r o n g k h i dd, dd'i vdi h i n h t h d c tin d u n g p h i chinh t h d c , eae n d n g hp tie'p c a n dupc ngUdi eho vay chu ye'u n h d sU gidi t h i e u cua ngUdi t h a n , tU t i m t h d n g tin; ke ca cac TCTD va chinh quyen dia phUOng deu bie't de'n sU t d n t a i eua tin d u n g p h i chinh t h d c Theo ket qua khao sat cd 88,5% so hp cho rang tin dung chinh thdc cd lai sua't tha'p nhung den 99% eho rang sd vdn vay r a t han ehe va 82,9% thda n h a n phai ed tai san the chap vay Nhu da phan tich, the chap tai san la rao can dd'i vdi eae ndng hp (dae biet la cac hp ngheo) viee tie'p can tin dung chinh thdc vi n h i l u hp khdng cd tai san the chap hay cd tai san the chap khd dupe cha'p n h a n bdi eae TCTD Ben canh dd, chi cd 41,9% sd hp cho rang thu tue vay d cac TCTD chinh thdc don gian va 40,8% cho rang it phai chd dpi Ket qua eho tha'y mac du da cai tie'n nhung thu tuc van cdn rUdm va phdc t a p ddi vdi nhieu ndng hp - nhdng ngUdi cd hpe van edn han che Thue te d i n de'n chi phi vay cao vi viec di lai d ndng thdn An Giang kha khd k h a n va tdn kem ngudi vay phai di lai nhieu lan mdi hoan t h a n h thu tuc vay, ehi ed 32,1% sd hp dupe khao sat cho rang chi phi vay d cae TCTD ehinh thdc la chap n h a n dupe
(7)i i i NGHIEN CUfU - TRAO DOI
Bang 6: Ke't qua hoi qui
Bien phu thuoc: LUdng von vay tin dung chinh thiic (LUONGVAY) B i e n so'
Hkng so C TUOI GIOITINH DANTOC HOCVAN DIAVIXH KCACH TGCUTRU NHANKHAU THUNHAP DIENTICH MUCDICHVAY SOLANVAY VAYPCT
H e so - -0,000 0,553 0,068 1,723 0,452 -0,017
0,003 0,027 0,027 0,020 1,430 1,272 -0,907
dY/dX
0,000 0,492 0,062 1.670 0,414 -0,016
0,003 0,025 0,024 0,019 1,252 1,166 -0,819
Gia tri P
0,01** 0,92 0,01**
0,72 0,00*** 0,00*** 0,16 0,54 0,60 0,00***
0,01** 0,00*** 0,00*** 0,00*** So quan s i t (N) 480
Pseudo R2 0,281 Gid tri Idem dinh mo hinh (Prob > chi') 0,000
Ghi chu: (*): Mdc y nghia 10%; (**): Mdc y nghia 5%; (***): Mdc y nghia 1% Nguon: Tinh todn td so lieu Ithao sdt cua tdc gid
la d khu vUc ndng thdn - noi tap trung nhieu hp ngheo Tuy nhien ed den 97,7% so' hp cho rang lai suat vay tin dung phi chinh thdc cao nhUng phai chap nhan vi nhilu gap cac tinh hudng dot xua't can ed t i l n de giai quyet nhUng khdng the vay d cac TCTD ehinh thdc
Phdn tick ket qud hoi quy
Ke't qua hdi quy xd ly bang mo hinh Tobit Bang cho tha'y lupng vdn vay tin dung ehinh thdc cua eae ndng hp d An Giang chiu anh hudng cua nhilu bien sd, dd mpt so' cd y nghia thdng ke d mdc 1% hay 5% ben canh mpt sd khdng cd y nghia (trUdc phan tich md hinh hdi quy, chung toi da kiem dinh cac gia thuyet cua md hinh, dae biet la hien tUpng da cpng tuyen gida cac bien dpe lap; ket qua kiem dinh eho thay cac bie'n khdng c6 hien tUpng da cpng tuyen)
Ke't qua cho thay bie'n GIOITINH ed anh hudng thuan chieu den lupng vdn vay cua hp vi he sd eua
Cong nghengan hang
So 60'Thing 03/2011
bie'n la duong d mdc y nghia 5% Nbu vay, neu chu hp la nam thi lupng vdn vay se ldn hon so vdi chu hp la nd Tuong tu, he sd cua bien HOCVAN cung cd gia tri duong d mdc y nghia 1%, cho thay hoc van la yeu td quan trpng quyet dinh lUpng vdn vay cua hp - phat trien he thdng giao due se giup cai thien co hpi tie'p can tin dung cua ndng hp
Mpt phat hien cua nghien cdu la dia vi xa hpi eua ehu hp hay vien hp cd tinh quyet dinh ddi vdi lupng vdn vay cua hp vi he sd cua bie'n DIAVIXH ed gia
(8)NGHIEN CUfU - TRAO DOI i l l
thi lupng vd'n vay se tang chdng td dupc uy tin tin dung, bien SOLANVAY ed y nghia d mdc 1% vdi he sd duong Ket qua hdi quy edn eho thay bien VAYPCT ed he so' am d mdc y nghia 1% nghia la cac hp chpn vay tin dung phi chinh thdc thudng it vay tin dung chinh thdc vi khdng dap dng dupe yeu eau cua eae TCTD ehinhi thdc nhu da phan tieh d tren
Tuy nhien, ket qua hdi quy eho tha'y cae yeu to' nhu tuoi cua ehu hp, dan toe, thdi gian cU tru d dia phuong va khoang each tir npi eU tru de'n trung tam huyen hay thi td khdng cd tinh quye't dinh ddi vdi lupng vd^n vay cua ndng hp; cac TCTD chinh thdc quan tam nhilu hPn den tai san the chap, thu nhap, dia vi xa hpi, mue dieh vay va uy tin tra np
Ben canh eae ket qua dat dupe nhu tren, nghien cdu vSn cdn mpt so' ban che nhU ehua bao gdm dupe ta't ea cac yeu td cd the cd lien quan den lUpng vdn vay eua ndng hp nhu sd lupng (hay gia tri) gia sue eua hp, kinh nghiem san xuat, kha nang tiep can cac ngudn hd trp ky thuat san xua't, sd lao dpng hay ty le ngudi sdng phu thupc hp nen he so' xac dinh R2 eua md hinh chi d mdc chap nhan dupe
Ket l u a n v a g i a i p h a p Bai viet phan tieh cac yeu td quyet dinh lupng vdn vay tin dung chinh thdc eua ndng hp bang each sd dung sd lieu SP cap thu thap td 480 ndng hp d An Giang K i t qua phan tieh cho tha'y cac yeu td nhu gidi tinh eua ehu ho, trinh dp hpe van, dia vi xa hpi eua ehu hp hay t h a n h vien hp va thu nhap ed y nghia quyet dinh ddi vdi lupng vdn vay tin dung ehinh thdc cua cac ndng hp Ben canh dd, lUpng vdn vay cua ndng
hp edn Uen quan chat che vdi gia tri tai san the chap eung nbu muc dieh sd dung vdn vay Bai viet cung eho tha'y lUpng vdn vay eua ndng hp eung bi quyet dinh bdi sd lan vay vi neu vay va tra np day du thi se dupe vay nhieu hon chutng td dupe uy tin tin dung Ddng thdi, cae hp chpn vay tin dung phi chinh thdc thudng it vay chinh thdc vi khdng du kha nang dap dng yeu cau cua cae TCTD chinh thdc, nhu the chap hay cd muc dich sd dung vdn rd rang Tuy nhien, ket qua nghien cdu cho thay cac ye'u td nhu tudi, dan toe ehu hp, thdi gian sdng tai dia phUPng va khoang td npi d den trung tam huyen hay thi td khong quyet dinh lupng vdn vay eua ndng hp Td ket qua phan tieh, ta ed the tha'y lupng vdn vay tin dung ehinh thdc cua cae ndng hp d An Giang chiu anh hudng cua nhieu yeu td cd lien quan den chinh sach cho vay cua eae TCTD (dac biet la the chap) va cac dac diem lien quan de'n ban than ndng hp nhu thu nhap, uy tin tra np dd giai phap lam tang lupng vdn vay cho cac ndng hp phai bao ham cae yeu td De khai thae t i l m nang cua thi trudng tin dung ndng thdn, eae TCTD can ap dung cac sang kie'n mdi de giam bdi; viec qua phu thupc vao tai san the chap quye't dinh cho vay nhu cho vay theo nhdm, ap dung hinh thdc tra np diu dan, md them cac diem giao dieh va tuyen dung ngUdi dia phUPng vao lam viee vi hp ra't am hieu dia ban eung nhu ngUdi vay de giam bdt anh hudng tieu eUc eua thong tin bat ddi xiiftig den lupng vdn cho vay
Ket qua nghien cihi edn eho thay lupng vdn vay phu thupc vao sd lan vay hay gian tiep phu thupc vao uy tin tra np cua ngUdi vay (vi ehi CO tra np tdt thi mdi vay dupc lan sau), ma ngudi vay ehi
ed the tra np td't cd thu nhap dn dinh Chinh vi the, cac nong hp can chu dpng tim cho minh hudng di phu hpp de tranh hien tupng san xua't d at khdng theo quy luat cung eau cua thi trUdng khien gia san pham giam nghiem trpng vao vu thu hoach lam giam kha nang tra np Ben canh dd, cae hp nen tien hanh san xua't theo hUdng hpp tae de nam bat va tan dung CP hpi tham gia thi trudng d mpt tu the viing vang hon Hpp tae san xuat se lam tang kha nang thuong lupng giao dich mua ban eung nhu cung cap thdng tin ve uy tin tin dung cho eae TCTD, qua dd dn dinh gia san pham ban va ddng thdi cd the vay dUpe nhilu h o n "
Tai lieu tham khao
1 Pliam Bao Duong vd Yoichi Izumida (2002), Rural Development Finance in Vietnam: A Microeconometric Analysis of Household Surveys, World Development 30 (2), trang 319-333
2 Z/g Xudn Dinh (2008), Bdc tranh kinh te nong ho hi^n vd niQt s6 vdn di dot ra, Tap chi Cdng sdn so 151 3 Ddc Thdnh (2010), Tin dung nong tlwn: Cda dd ma nhung nong ddn liho vdo, http://vovnews.vn/Home/ Tin-dung-nong-thon-Cua-da-mo-nliung-nong-dan-kho-vao / 20107 /149576 vov, truy c^p ngdy 1/11/2010
4 Abliijit y Banerjee vd Estlier Duflo (2010), Giving CredU Where It Is Due, Journal of Economic Perspectives 24 (3), trang 61-80
5 Milikel Barslund vd Finn Tarp (2008), Formal and Informal Rural Credit in Four Provinces of 'Vietnam, World Development 44 (4), trang 485-503 6 Damodar N Gujarati (2004), Basic Econometrics, Fourtli Edition, McGraw-Hill
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