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Nhu vay, trong mdi trudng lam phat tang cao, giao dich tren TTCK nhin chung hi anh hudng theo hudng tieu cue mdt each ngau nhien thdng qua eff che tac dpng ciia CSTT that chat dupc[r]
(1)hihig khoan
DIEN DAN CHLTNG KHOAN
ANH HVONG CUA LAM PHAT
DEN TTCK VIET N A M
T H S P H A M N G U Y E N H O A N G Ly thuyet va thirc tien
T R U N G T A M N C K H - OTCK
L trong nhiing ehi am phat la mdt bao kinh te vi md quan trpng nhat va thudng xuyen dupe sii dung phan tich kinh te Tac dpng ciia lam phat dien rat rdng ddi vdi nhieu linh vuc va thi trudng ehiing khoan (TTCK) eung khdng phai la ngoai le
That vay, phan tich chiing khoan ndi chung khdng the
thieu nhiing phan tich ve anh hudng ciia lam phat den cung -cau phat hanh va giao dich chiing khoan, nhat la ehiing khoan cd thu nhap ed dinh Ddng thdi, gia tri cac khoan dau tu ehiing khoan ludn bi anh hudng true tiep bdi dien bien cua lam phat va day la mdt nhiing nii ro ca ban dau tu chiing khoan ndi chung Hoat ddng san xuat kinh doanh ciia eae doanh nghiep niem yet - xuong sdng cua TTCK - eung chiu tac ddng true tiep va gian tiep ff cac miic dp khac bdi lam phat; va dieu den lupt nd se gay bien ddng gia cd phieu niem yet tren thi trudng
tam phat co the tac dpng tn/c tiep den tam ly nha dau hj vd gia tri cua cac khodn dau tu tren TTCK
Anh Bdo Hdn
Tren eff sd dd, bai viet tap trung vao tim hieu a n h hudng ciia lam phat den TTCK dudi mdt sd gde dp eff ban lien quan den eung cau va hanh vi dau tu cd phieu Phuong phap phan tich la ap dung cac ly thuyet kinh te va kiem chiing thuc te dien bien TTCK Viet Nam Thdi ky dupe xet tir 2007 den la giai doan lam phat "hoanh hanh" va dien bien ngoai tam kiem soat tai nhieu thdi diem di kem vdi su suy giam dang ke eiia TTCK nudc
Trudc het, can phai diem lai dien bien ciia lam phat tuong quan vdi TTCK thdi
ky Cd the chia lam giai doan khac tuong ling vdi cac chinh sach md rdng hay t h a t chat ve tien te va/hoac tai khda va lam phat leo thang hay dupc kiem che
Giai doan tii trudc cho den niia dau nam 2007 Trong giai doan
nay, chinh sach tien te (CSTT) duffc ndi long qua miic khien eung tien luu thdng tang vpt Ddng thdi chinh sach tai khda Cling md rdng theo Tuy nhien, tinh trang "nhap khau" lam phat va hieu qua dau tu thap trff nen rat rd thdi ky nay, chiing td nen kinh te khdng hap thu dupc ngudn cung tien Idn va mdt phan dang ke ngudn vdn dupe chuyen sang dau tu vao eae linh vuc khdng san xuat va tieu diing He qua la lam phat tang len miie cao nhat vdng nam ke tif 2001 (8,3%) TTCK trd nen qua ndng vdi viec chi sd VN Index lien tue tang, vupt qua miic 1.100 diem va trd dinh cao n h a t lich sii TTCK Viet Nam cho den
Giai doan tii nua cuoi 2007
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(2)DIEN DAN CHlTNG KHOAN
den niia dau 2008 la giai doan
that chat tien te Bien phap chinh sach ciia cac co quan quan ly la kiem soat lam phat thdng qua viee dieu hanh va kiem soat tang tdng phuong tien toan; dam bao tang trudng tin dung mue tieu va sau dd tin hieu rd nhat cho chinh sach la viee nang lai suat cff ban len 14%/nam vao thang 6/2008 Tuy nhien, CSTT dupe that chat thi boat ddng tai khda van khdng cd dau hieu co lai, tham chi tiep tue tang khien cho ap luc lam phat va lai suat khdng giam di Hien tupng dudng nhu diing vdi ly thuyet kinh te cho rang mue tieu chinh sach that chat tien te la lam giam lai suat, song chinh sach tai khda lai md rdng nen muc tieu se bi triet tieu va trd nen khd thue hien; ly la vi tai khda mff rdng se ed hieu ling lam tang lai suat Do vay, xu hudng leo thang ciia lam phat van tiep tuc va da trd dinh diem tdi gan 23% cho nam 2008 - miic ky luc ve lam phat nen kinh te nhieu nam qua
iDipsg!iE9cmipfẩ]^^
r
wBCo the noi anh hudng cua dim bien lam phdt den rrCJC tai Viet J^am nam qua Id hodn todn mang tinh khdch quan vd phu hap vOi cdc quy luat thi tnfOtig
9,19
-Lam phat (%]
Trai nguffc vdi giai doan trudc, diln bien ciia TTCK Viet Nam da diu dan siic ndng, ehi so VN Index bat dau rdi khdi mdc cao ky luc ff giai doan trudc va chuyen sang thdi ky giam sau
Giai doan tii niia cudi 2008 den cuoi nam 2009 chiing kien chinh sach noi long trff lai ca tien te va tai khoa Day la giai
doan kha dac biet cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam da trai qua thdi ky khd khan tii chinh sach that chat tien te ciia giai doan trudc va thi trudng qudc te bi thu hep tac ddng ciia cudc khiing hoang tai chinh khdi phat tu My vao thang 9/2008 Trong bdi canh nay, lai suat eff ban da dupc giam xudng mdt niia (cdn 7%/nam tii dau 2009) va Chinh phii ehii truffng thuc hien gdi kich cau: Gdi - Hd trff 4% lai suat cho cac khoan vay san xuat va luu thdng hang hda; Gdi - Hd trp 4% lai suat cho eae khoan vay dau tu mdi cho phat trien san xuat kinh doanh, cff sd tang; va Gdi -Hd trff 1009^ lai suat cho cac khoan vay mua sam may mdc, thiet bi eff phuc vu san xuat va che bien ndng nghiep Do dp tre eiia chinh sach that chat tien te ff giai doan trudc cdng vdi viec kiem soat tdt du np tin dung va
tdng phuong tien toan dudi miie mue tieu, ket qua eiia viee thuc thi cac chinh sach ndi tren kha cdng vdi viec lam phat nam 2009 da dupfc khdng che va giam manh xudng chi cdn 6,88% va van dat dupe chi tieu tang trudng GDP dii d miic thap 5,32% Mat khac, cac chinh sach ciing kip thdi giiip tinh hinh san xuat kinh doanh ciia eae doanh nghiep nude dii siic chdng chpi vdi suy thoai kinh te Cd le chinh vi dieu nen mot sd nha quan sat qudc te da td an tupng trudc kha nang ling phd trudc "khiing hoang tai chinh the gidi 2008" ciia Viet Nam Tinh den dau quy rV/2009, TTCK nhd vay da hdi phuc va tang trudng 165% ddi vdi ehi sd VN Index (tii 235,5 diem 24/2/2009 len 624,1 diem 22/10/2009) va 179% ddi vdi ehi sd HNX-Index (cac chi so tuong ling la 78,06 va 218,38 diem)
Giai doan tii cuoi nam 2009 den dien viee thu hep
CSTT Cac gdi hd trp lai suat da dupc cham diit va lai suat CP ban da hai lan dixac nang len: 8%/nam (tii 1/12/2009) va 9%/nam (tii 5/11/2010) Cac loai lai suat chinh khac cung duffc dieu chinh tang manh Ngoai ra,
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(3)L IW^^BIlHhMi^lMli!!!
DIEN DAN CHUFNG KHOAN
eff quan quan ly cdn tiep tue dieu chinh ky ban va khdi lupng bffm tien qua nghiep vu thi trudng md (bat dau thue hien tii giiia thang 10/2010) de kiem soat va ban che bdt ddng tien dd vao nen kinh te Day rd rang la eae bien phap nham thu hep tien te de hudng tdi muc tieu kiem che lam phat ma chi bao (CPI) da tang len tdi tren 9% binh quan nam 2010 Mae dii da cham diit eae bien phap ndi Idng tien te - tai khda tif giai doan trudc va thue hien thu hep tien te, nhung tang trudng tin dung van cao (29,81% tinh den 31/12/2010, vufft qua muc tieu 25%), ddng thdi tang trudng tdng phuong tien toan nam 2010 cung ff miic cao so vdi tang trudng GDP (25,3% so vdi 6,78%) va mdt sd nguyen nhan khac, nen chi sd lam phat van tang va da vUfft len miic hai eon sd la 11,75% Trong bdi canh lam phat cao nhu vay, giao dich tren TTCK khdng cdn siic tang manh nhu nam trudc, trai qua nhung dien bien tang giam that thudng va nhin chung sut giam Dien bien va quan he giua lam phat va TTCK Viet Nam qua giai doan neu tren tii 2007 den ed the
quan sat va so sanh ff hai bieu va
Qua dien bien giai doan nhu tren, ed the n i t mdt so tuong quan rd ret chung nhat giua lam phat va TTCK tai Viet Nam thdi gian qua nhu sau:
Khi lam phat tang cd miic dp bdi canh cung tien tang manh va md rdng chi tieu Chinh phii thi TTCK tang trudng ndng; lam phat tang qua cao vupt qua tam kiem soat bdi canh that chat tien te thi TTCK lai suy giam nhanh O trang thai ngupc lai, lam phat giam bdi canh thue thi CSTT va tai khda ndi long thi TTCK tang trudng trd lai Cudi Cling, ff trang thai trung tinh, lam phat tang cd miic dp nhung khdng den miie qua cao va mdi trudng thu hep tien te thi TTCK se "ludng lu" va eung xu the thu hep
De cd eff sd rd hffn ve van de nay, chiing ta ed the ap dung mdt sd ly thuyet kinh te sau de giai thich cho anh hudng eiia lam phat den TTCK Viet Nam Nham dffn gian hffn phan tich, ed the gidi ban viec nghien ciiu anh hudng eiia mdi trudng lam phat tang (khdng xet lam phat giam) den giao dich tren TTCK nhu the nao Theo y nghia nay, ed cff che khien cho lam phat cd the anh hudng manh den eung cau va hanh vi giao dich ehiing khoan tren thi trudng
TAii' nhat, lam phat anh hudng gian tiep den TTCK thdng qua tac ddng den tinh hinh san xuat hang hda, dich vu eiia eae doanh nghiep ndi chung va cac doanh nghiep niem yet ndi rieng Lam phat la bieu hien cua su tang len va keo dai eiia miic gia ca chung nen kinh te; va mdt nhiing nguyen nhan dan tdi lam phat la chi phi tang cao (lam phat ehi phi day) Do vay, lam phat tang thudng ddng nghia vdi viec chi phi dau vao cho boat ddng san xuat kinh doanh ciia eae doanh nghiep tang len Vi du, lam phat khien chi phi lai vay ciia doanh nghiep dat dd hem bdi vi cac td chiie cho vay nhu ngan hang thuong mai da phai nang lai suat huy ddng len de dam bao lai suat thuc duong cho ngudi giii tien Khi ehi phi san xuat tang cao, gia cac san pham, dich vu eiia doanh nghiep se phai tang theo de dam bao san xuat - kinh doanh hoac co Ipi nhuan Tuy nhien, siic tieu thu san pham - dich vu ciia doanh nghiep se sut giam gia ban cao, dac biet ngan ban va ngudi tieu diing tim tdi eae san pham thay the Dieu
Giai doan Lam phdt lang va noi long
qud rniic tien te-tdi kliod JI
Giai doqn 2: Lam plidt cao ky luc
vd that chql tien te
Giai doqn 4: Lqm phdt tdng cao
vd lien le Ihu hep
2009
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(4)DIEN DAN CHUfNG KHOAN
hdngklioAn
tqm phdt tdng cao, tdm ly nhd dau tu tren TTCK cung bj dnh huang nghiem trpng vd TTCK se khong con Id mot dja chi thu hut vdn dau tu
Anh Khdnh Thy
khien cho Iffi nhuan mue tieu ciia doanh nghiep khd dupe dam bao va tham ehi sut giam, dan tdi loi nhuan ky vpng cua doanh nghiep tUffng lai bi dinh gia thap Ket qua la gia cd phieu ciia doanh nghiep niem yet tren thi trudng hi anh hudng theo hudng suy giam vdi eae miie dp khac Neu lam phat cang tang manh thi he qua dien cang nhanh va gia cd phieu cang bi anh hudng manh Neu lam phat tang qua cao lai dien mdi trudng CSTT - tai khda that chat thi hau qua cdn nang ne hon vi khoan tren thi trudng bi co hep dang ke ludng vdn luu thdng tren thi trudng sut giam Dieu tren thue te da dien rd nhat nam 2008 (ling vdi giai doan neu tren) Trong bdi canh lam phat len tdi miic hai eon sd ky lue nhu tren, cac doanh nghiep gap rat nhieu khd khan thieu vdn dau tu va thi trudng bi thu hep Do vay, ket qua kinh doanh
ciia cac doanh nghiep niem yet quy II va quy III/2008 thap hffn rat nhieu so vdi ciing ky nam 2007, d i n tdi gia ed phieu sut giam manh tren thi trudng
Thii hai, lam phat ed
the tac ddng true tiep den tam ly nha dau t u va gia tri eiia cac khoan dau t u tren TTCK Lam p h a t tang la mdt nhiing bieu hien bat dn eiia nen kinh te Do vay, lam phat tang cao ed the dan tdi nguy eff khiing hoang niem tin vao nen kinh te, nhat la Chinh phii td bat luc viee kiem che lam phat leo thang Trong mdi trudng nay, tam ly nha dau t u tren TTCK cung bi anh hudng nghiem trpng va TTCK se khdng cdn la mdt dia chi thu hiit vdn dau tu bdi nd cung chinh la mdt "phong vu bieu" ciia nen kinh te Neu dieu xay ra, se xuat hien "tam ly bay dan" viec ban thao cd phieu
nhu giii tiet kiem lai suat da dupe tang de dam bao lai thue tren he thdng ngan hang, hoac so vdi dau t u vao vang siic tang gia ciia vang Idn hon vdi vai trd la "noi t n i an" an toan mdi trudng bat dn kinh te Cd le hien thuc da dien ling vdi giai doan neu tren vdi nhiing bieu bien rat rd nhu lam phat tang dang ke, lai suat tren thi trudng tien te tang cao, gia vang leo len cac miic ky lue lich sii va TTCK nhin chung di xudng Neu chua ke den cac yeu to' kinh te khac cd tac ddng n h u anh hudng ciia thi trudng the gidi, cung tien, tinh chat miia vu , nhung dien bien tren rd rang chiu anh hudng ciia mdi trudng lam phat va dien phii hop vdi cac quy luat kinh te
Thiiba, lam phat tang cao se
anh hudng den TTCK thdng qua dudng thuc thi CSTT that chat nham kiem che lam phat Cd the xem xet anh hudng trudc bet vdi trai phieu theo md hinh dinh gia trai phieu nhu sau:
Pi -1
C- c,
: + YTyr>
k h u n g b o a ' n g
niem tin Hau qua se la cung ed phieu Idn gap nhieu lan so vdi cau va thi trudng dien tinh trang kem khoan nghiem trpng Dieu cang trd nen hien thuc cac nha dau tu cam thay su m a t m a t tren TTCK gia tri cac khoan vdn dau tu vao chiing khoan ciia hp da bi giam di ve mat gia tri tuong ddi so vdi mdi trudng lam phat chua tang Su trd treu hoan canh la TTCK cang trd nen kem hap dan hffn so Vffi cac hinh thiic dau t u khac
:i + rr.'.i'' -T +
p
1 + YT:.V<^ 1 + VT.'./1
Trong do:
PQ : Gia trai phieu dau ky Pjj: Gia ban trai phieu cudi k y n
C„: Lai suat coupon thdi ky n YTM: Lpi suat dao ban ciia trai phieu
Khi cff quan quan ly trien khai CSTT that chat mdi trudng lam phat, miie lai suat chung tren thi trudng ed xu hudng tang Dieu dan tdi yeu cau va thuc te lpi suat dao ban (YTM) ciia trai phieu tang theo Do quan he nghich
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(5)hung Mioan
DIEN DAN CHUfNG KHOAN
Trong moi tixtang lam phdt tdng cao, giao dich tren TTC-K nhin chung bi dnh hudng theo huOng tieu cUc mot cdch ngdu nhien thong qua ca che tdc dong cua CSTT that chat
bien giua gia va lpi suat trai phieu, gia trai phieu tren thi trudng se giam xudng va de tranh nii ro nay, nha dau tu nam giii trai phieu ed xu hudng ban trai phieu hoac cff cau lai danh mue dau tu He qua la thi trudng trai phieu dien tinh trang ban thao trai phieu va gay anh hudng tieu cue tdi thi trudng dau thau va huy ddng vdn trai phieu Tren TTCK Viet Nam da tiing dien hien tupng vao cudi nam 2008 nhieu td chiie dau tu nude ngoai day manh ban trai phieu lo ngai lai suat thi trudng tang de kiem che lam phat
Ddi vdi thi trudng ed phieu, anh hudng tieu cue ciia lam phat cd the dupe giai thich thdng qua md hinh dinh gia ed phieu Gordon nhu sau:
Div„x(H-g)_ Divi ( k , - g ) ( k , - g ) Trong do:
PQ: Gia cd phieu thdi ky dau Div (0,1): Cd tiic (thdi ky dau va cudi ky)
kg: Lpi suat yeu cau dau t u vao ed phieu
g: Ty le tang trudng cd tiic hang nam ciia doanh nghiep
Do viee thue hien CSTT de kiem che lam phat, tuong t u nhu tren, lai suat tren thi trudng cd xu hudng tang Tir ket qua tren day ddi vdi thi trudng trai phieu
(YTM tang), va lai suat danh nghia giii tien tren he thdng ngan hang da tang, nha dau t u se khd cd the chap nhan mdt miic lpi suat dau t u vao cd phieu thap (k^) Ndi each khac, lpi suat yeu cau kg se phai tang theo, vay chenh lech lpi suat dau tu va ty le tang trudng ciia doanh nghiep (kj; - g) tang len, ddng nghia vdi gia cd phieu (P^) giam xudng Vdi du bao gia cd phieu giam nhu vay, thi trudng cd phieu se chuyen sang giai doan suy thoai eae hoat ddng ban trudc cd phieu de phdng ngiia nii ro giam gia Mat khac, lam phat va lai suat tang, tdc dp tang trudng ciia doanh nghiep chac chan se bi anh hudng xau theo hudng giam di ehi phi tang va lpi nhuan ky vpng sut giam He qua ciia dieu eung la (kg - g) tang len va dan tdi xu hudng tuong tu
Nhu vay, mdi trudng lam phat tang cao, giao dich tren TTCK nhin chung hi anh hudng theo hudng tieu cue mdt each ngau nhien thdng qua eff che tac dpng ciia CSTT that chat dupc trien khai cd hieu qua (khien lai suat thuc duong)
Trong bdn giai doan xem xet d phan dau, khdng cd mdt giai doan nao diln theo diing CP che thii Ly eff ban la vi khdng cd mdt CSTT that chat triet de; vi du, giai doan that
chat tien te nhung chinh sach tai khda v i n md nen lai suat khdng giam, giai doan ehi la thu hep tien te va dii lai suat sau cung cd tang manh dam bao bii nii ro lam phat nhung tang trudng tin dung va tdng phuong tien toan nen kinh te van tang
De ket luan, cd the ndi anh hudng eiia dien bien lam phat den TTCK tai Viet Nam nam qua la hoan toan mang tinh khach quan va phii hpp vdi cac quy luat thi trudng Ndi each khac, khdng cd su "trai quy luat" nao dien quan he giiia diln bien eiia TTCK Viet Nam va lam phat thdi gian qua Viec thuc thi phdi hpp cac chinh sach kinh te khac nham muc tieu dinh hudng lam phat da thuc su khien cho TTCK van ddng theo nhiing hudng khac mdt each logic Chi nao viee quan ly dieu hanh thi trudng tien te, tai khda va cac chinh sach khac khdng ddng bp mdi xay viec cp che tac ddng ciia lam phat den TTCK khdng boat ddng hoac kem hieu luc De ed the xac dinh dupc mot each chinh xac nhat anh hudng ciia lam phat den TTCK nhu the nao, can phai cd nhung nghien ciiu n h i m xay dung eae md hinh kinh te lupng de cd the ludng miic dp anh hudng eiia lam phat Cling vdi cac bien sd ddc lap khac den giao dich chiing khoan tren thi trudng Tuy nhien, dieu la mdt trd ngai khdng nhd lien quan den ngudn sd lieu va tinh phiic tap ciia ban than van de Do vay, viec ap dung cac ly thuyet kinh te de giai thich cho nhiing thuc te n h u da trinh bay d tren la dieu can thiet ®
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