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My coi Philippin l i mit [quan trong trong tinh toin chi^n lugrc d Bi6n Dong vi Philippin B nhung l i ddng minh duy nhit cua My trong so cic nude yeu sach, k 6 n an ngu; d chuoi dio[r]

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Nghien du Quoc ti si (106)

CiriNH SACH TANG CITCING NANG L f C AN N W H BIEN

\ CtlAPHILfPPIN:THV'C TRANG VA TRIEN VONG Phfm Duy Thuc

I

Tomtit

Philippin nam a ria dong cua Biin Bong li nudcyeusich nhung CO nang luc an ninh bien han chi chi co mot so tiu chiin cu va cic tiu chApphap nho nen khong du khd ndng giam sal cic vung biin a Biin Bong Vi thi Philippin bf that bai cac cupc doi diu lay doi tren thuc dia vai Trung Quic din din mil quyen Mem soil Vinh Khan vio nam 1995 vi Scarborough vio nam 2012 Irong ngu dan cua Philippin luon bi luc lupng chap phip ding dio cua Trung Quic gay sic ep a cac khu vuc tranh chap Trum linh hinh chinh quyin Ting thing Benipw Aquino dd tip trung phit Iriin luc lupng hai quan vi chip phap de ching Ipi suxdm lin cua cac luc lupng biin cua Trung Quic Bii vietse di sau dm hiiu vi chinh sach phit Iriin nang bfc an ninh biin cua Philippin dual thdi Ting thong Aquino va gpi ma vi chinh sich niy chinh quyin cua Ting thing Sodrigo Dulerte

Tir khia: PhiUppin, Ting tiiong Aquino, Tdng tiling Rodrigo Duterte, chiln lupc an ninh biln, Biln Ddng

U nude yen sich v i cd Ipi ich Idn d Biln Bdng nhung Philippin ed nang lye an ninh bien yeu nhit ttong sd cac nude yeu sich d Bong Nam A v i kem rit xa so vdi Trang Quic Cic tiu hii quan dia Philippin chi yen l i cac tau cu My chi tao tii flidi chiln ttanh ttil gidi tini hai, bao gIm eic tiu ttiin tta bd biln, tiu chuyin quin v i tiu ciiu hp fliieii • ThS, can b5 nghien ciu, Vifn Biln Dong, H^c vien Ngoji giao

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tai Philippin Ididng cd tau ten iiia, tiu ngim, nang Igc khdng chiai vi san ngim h^n chi.' Theo Tap chi Chien luac an ninh bien chdu A - Thdi

Binh Duong cua Bd Qudc phdng Mf cdng b6 tiling 8/2015, Philippin chi

cd 14 tiu chiln cic logi, bing 4,6% ciia Trung Quoc co 303 tiu chien Philippin khdng cd tau dd bO va tau ngim, tixing Trung Quoc cd 53 tau dd bp v i 64 tiu ngim Philippin ed tiu chap phap, chi bing 1,95% eua Trung Quoc cd 205 tiu (xem Bing 1)

Bang 1: So sinh Igc lugng hii quin va chap phip giiia Philippin v i cac nude khu vgc nim 2015

Loai t i u Tiu Idn (c5 tiu khu tiyc va Idn hon) Tiu nhd (cd tiu hp vO v i nhd hon) Tiu d l bp (bao gom taudlbO cd trung bmh(LSM)

tiu bp Philippin Trung Quic 79 107 53 Inddngxia 26 24 Vift Nam 24 IVlalaixia 10

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dii 1% lilt "III 1^-w] -1

Nghien du Quic te si (106)

Loai tiu

tang(LST) va tin d l bp tan cdng

(LPD)) Tau ngam ^ ^ " g : ^ ^ | c b a p Bphap Idn SHI.OOO

^ | t L )

^ Tiu chap phip nhd (tii 500-1.000 tan) Ting: Philippin 0 14 0 4 4 Trang Quic 64 303 95 UO 205 IndonSxia 2 61 3 5 8 Viet Nam 3 37 5 50 55 IVlalaixia 2 23 2 0 2 NguIn: US Departtnent of Defense, Asia Pacific Maritime

Security Strategy, August 2015, pp 12-13

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^

chinh quyen ciia Philippin phai ddn hit ngudn Igc vio vi$c gift viing an , ninh va on dinh chinh tii

Bude sang thl ky 21, My phat dong cudc chien chong khiing bo, Philippin dudi sg cam quyen ciia Tdng thdng Arroyo tiep tuc tip trung vio cac van de an ninh nude Philippin bat dau khdi phgc quan he an ninh vdi My nhung chd ylu thong qua cic chuang trinh h3 trg chdng khung bo d l tran i^ cac luc lugng ly khai dit lien Philippin chua chii y den vi$c phat triln cac kliia canh quin sg bien vi cim thay mdi de dga tii biln chua rd ring He qui la, Philippin da tiiat b ^ vi?c ngan ch?n Trung Quoc sii dgng siic manh de cudng ep vi chiem quyen kiem soat Scarborough nam 2012.^

Sg ki€n Scarborough la tieng chuong cinh tinh vdi Philippin va trudc mdi de dpa ngiy cing tang tir Trung Quoc, chinh quyen T^ng thong Aquino quyet dinh chuyen tam bao v? an ninh nude sang hudng ben ngoii de bio v? chii quyen lanh tho d Bien Ddng va coi cic moi de doa doi vdi chu quyln lanh thd tu biln la thich thiic Idn nhit,^

Mfic tieu cua vt$c thay doi chinh sdck an ninh biin

Mgc tieu chmh bude chinh quyln T^ng thong Aquino quyet djnh chuyin tam bio v$ an ninh nude sang hudng bSn ngoii dl bio v§ chii quyln lanh thd d Biln Ddng la d l Philippin cd nang tap

Ronnie Gil L Gavan, "0rgani2ed National Engagement at Sea: Optimizing the State's , Option for Maritime Security," Digest: A Forum for Security and Defense Issues, 19,1 (First Quarer 2012), p.l

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Nghien du Quic li si (106)

^ ttung mpi nguon luc de xiy dung va tiri "sue manh rin de du tin cay" vdi mpt luc lupng bii quan v i chip phap du mauh ^ cd tbi chdng lai su ilH xim lan hoac xim lupc tii ben ngoii v i ngin chan cac hoat dpng phi

% &[: phip tten bifin,^

' Cu flie, Philippm tip ttung phit ttiln ding thdi nang luc an ninh ! • bien tten hai kbia canh Ii: (i) Phat tiiln nang nhin fliiic v l biln ' " ' (maritime domain avrareness) vdi viec tiiinh lap He tiling giam sit bd '*« biln qudc gia (NCWS).' NCWS l i ttung tim chi dao, dilu hinh v i dilu • * phoi lien ca quan v l an nmh biln ciia Philippin Dl van hinh be flilng

"K nay, PhiUppin cin ttang bi cac tiiiet bi khdng quan, dpi ngu nhan luc i^jj^ tiiao v i cac be thing ra-da hien dai Trong dd, cac may bay hiin tra

j ^ tam xa, may bay tin cdng tren biln l i nhiing ttang fliilt bi ein fliilt Cac j^j miy bay khong nhiing tang cudng nhan tiiuc v l biln mi cdn cii ^1 tilicn nang ngan chan ttong mpt cupc ddi diu hii quan quy md nhd, i j ; °hM '* * lanh hii va viing dac quyln kinh t l ciia Philippm; (ii) ^1 Tang cudng ning ngan chin (mterdiction capabilities) flidng qua kit

hpp be tiling phdng khong cua khdng quan v i he tiling giim sit bd biln quoc gia Vipe niy se giup md rdng tim bao phii v i tam xa eho cac luc ,|ii lupng ttinh sit v i tang cudng nang tim kilm muc tieu Trong dd, may bay tiiin tta va ttinh sit la cdng cu chmh fliuc hi6n cic boat ddng

' (Quezon City; Camp Aguinaldb, 2011), p.27

Tllailll lap thang 9/2011, chin ning o i thl dia NCWS bao g6in Ihu tbap, ting hqp vS ph6 bien fliflng tin lien quan den ao ninh bi£n; day tri thong tin lien lac tiieu qui dg ting ^ Clrtng phoi bq^ ho?t dong lien cor quan; ph6i hgp tiln hanh cac boat dong trinh sal hoac ?^ dip tmg yeu cau dia co quan vien nong vi?c dfii voi tinb hu6ng khan cip; if- I?p ke h09ch, phoi hgp, giim sit, danh gia vice triln khai cic boat dgng an ninh biln; ^ hgp tac an ninh xuySn bien gi6i va da quoc gia theo chi d^o cua chinh phii, v.v Xem J J them trong: Peter C3ialk, Rebuilding while n^orming: MilUary modernization in the

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, / ^

tuan tta, thim v i ngan chin Tryc thing tit eac tiu tren mit nude giiip tang cudng su hien dipn v i b l sung siic manh ran de He thing phdng ididng v i ten lua bd bien cua khdng quan cing duprc kit nli vdi cac fluet bi ngan chin tren m^t nude v i tiu ngim d l tao flianh Idp bio vp diu tien vdng ngoai cho Philippm.'

Hirthtg trien khai thyc hi^n chinh sach tdng aeirng an ninh biin Tren co sd muc tieu dd, Philippin ttiln khai theo hai budng song

song Huong thi nhit, chinh quyin Ting thing Aquino tang cuang htpi

dpi hoa quan dpi Giua nam 2012, Tdng thing Aqumo quylt dittii ehi 500

t^ Pe-x6 (khoing 10 ty USD) d l mua sim trang thilt bi cho hai quan vdng 15 nam, bao gom tiu khu true cd ning chong ngim v i phdng khdng, hai chile da nh|n tit Mf l i BRP Grigoiio del Pilar (PF 15) vio nam 2011 v i BRP Ramon Alcaraz (PF 16) vio nam 2012; 12tauhS v | cd nang ching ngam; 18 tiu titan tta bd biln; 26 ttvc tiiang hai quin da muc tieu; 42 tiu tin cdng da muc tieu ttang bi ngu Idi v i ten liia dinh chin v i tin ngim cbsy diesel.' Tuy nhien, nhilu h?ng mile ttong danh sach niy chua dupe triln khai vi khd khan v l ngin sach

Ben c ^ do, chmh quyln Aqumo ciing ttiln khai mOt s i bipn phap nham giam ginh nang ngin sach cho chinh phu Thii nhit, Philippm tiiiil lip dii tic chiln lupc viW cic ca quan nude ngoii v i khu vue tir nhan VI du, Philippin xem xet lien kit viM cac don vi tir nhin dl fliilt lip mjng ludi flidng tin ve tinh nhung diy mdi l i ^ tiidng v i chua dupe ttiln khai vi chinh phu Philippin chua cho phep lip d|t cac fliilt bi vien tiidng

Commodore lose Renan C Suarez, "The Imperatives of Defending the Philippioei and Air-Defense Partnership," presentation at the Air Power Symposium 2012 June 21, 2012 SMX Convention Center, Pasay City, Philippines, p.6

' Eric Johnson, "Modernizing the Philippines Navy," UniKd Stales Naval InsOm Proceedings WolUQ, Isue ll,November2014,p.82

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Nghien du Quic ti so (106)

' tnuong mai ttung cac ttai quin dpi hoac d cic tram ti6p am ttuyln tiianh ^' tten dmh nui Philippin ky kit mpt s i higi djnh Uen doanh nhung chu

*' ylu l i dudi dang dich vu fliong tin ' "IS o • e

Thli bai, Philippin time eac ttang fliilt bi quin su Viec niy se cho phep quan dpi Philippm dinh tiln eho chi phi siia cbua bio duong ttong iiilj van tilp cin dupe voi cac tiiilt hi tien tiln nhu may bay ttiin tta tim

^^ xa, tin bd vp v i cic hp ttidng vii hien dji Vi du, PhiUppin tinh time

tiu khu ttuc ten liia 4.000 tin Idp Perry cua My d l tang cudng nang j ^ ^ hian ti« bd biln, bao ve bien gidi tten biln v i viing dje quyln kinh t l ' ° ' ' " ' s i ^ " ^ PhiUppin xem xet phat ttiln be tiling ten liia chdng ham • l i l M p a dit d dat Uln Philippm cd bd biln phia tay dii Thuc flil xa nhit

<kf d Tnrdng Sa m i PhiUppm yeu sich each Palawan khoing 450km, ttung

l;l!t Scarborough each Luzon 230 km Vi fliI, cic he flilng ten liia chong tla ham tim xa di dpng (vi dy cac ten Ilia RG1H-84L Harpoon va RGM-ili* 109B Tomahawk ciia My hoac Brabmob cua An Dp v i P-800 Yakhont "I cua Nga) djt d Palawan v i Luzon hoin toan ed fliI tao siic manh ran de

Idn ban so vdi cie tau chiln vi vi^e lip dat tin liia can it nhin luc, it Ml ttang flnit bi, de in nan v i ed till tie chiln nhanh Ngoii ra, d l tim ipi dupe vj tti ciia cac b? phdng ten liia niy, Ttung Quoc phii dua miy bay I* chiln diu, ttuc fliang bojc miy bay khdng ngudi lai vio siu ttong lanh ¥

nil ~

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th6 cua Philippin Nhu the, cac may bay cua Trung Quoc se gap rui FO phai doi mat voi cac luc lugng phong khong mat dat aia Philippin Hien Philippin dang qua trinh dam phan vdi Israel v^ hgp d6ng 6,5 ty Pe-x6 (khoang 142 trieu USD) de mua cac ten lira chong ham dat dat lien nhtmg chi tiet cu the chua dugc cong bo '^ Theo chuyen gia Felix Chang (Vi?n Nghien ciiu chinh sSch doi ngo^-FPRI, My), Philippin chi can bon khau dpi ten lua ch6ng ham tam xa di dpng dat tren dao Palawan Ik c6 the ngan chan su xam nhpp ciia cdc ti\i chiln Trung Quoc.'^

Huang thu hai, Philippin m& rgng hpp tac quoc te, lay lien minh vai My lam tnt cpt vd ma rpng ket noi vdi cac nuac Id dong minh vd doi tac quan trpng cua My a khu vuc, Chii tniong n^y dugc nSu ro cic^ van kien chien luge qu^c phong cua Philippin nhu Chinh sach an ninh quoc gia 2011-2016", Chi thj ve hgp tac quoc te ciia quSn dOi Philippin

"AFP, DND urged to upgrade land-based capabitities," Pkitstar August 19, 2012: '' ht^://www.philstar.com/headIines/2012/08/I9/839733/afp-dnd-urged-to-upgrade-iand-based-capabilities

"Critics of PhiUppin-Israel missile deal misinformcd-AFP exec," Philsiar, August 8, 2015: http://www.phiIstar.corn/headlines/20l5/08/08/H8595I/critics of-Philippines-isiBel-missile^eal-misinformed-afp-exec

Felix Chang, Transforming the Philippines' defense architecture, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2012, p.II

'* Chfnh sach an ninh quoc gia 2011-2016 ciia Philippin nhin mgnh "quan h§ vdi MJ mang l^i Ipi Jch cho an ninh Philippin vk sir hi§n di?n quin s\r cua My Ii nhin t6 giir oilii dinh chinh a khu vvrc Cac hoat d^ng niy bit nguon tfr Hiep uoc phong thii chung' (MDT) mang l^i ket qua cai thi^n nang bfa hojit dgng chimg giua quSn d§i Philippin v i ' My Dong thdi, Philippin tang cudng c5c giin x^p hiyp tac vdi tie, Han Quoc, NhJlBin v ^ ^ n u d c khac." Xem th6m trong; National Security Council, National Security ^^^20nj016: Securing Ae Gains of Democracy (Quezon City: National Security

" ^ ^ ^ ) p -

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Nghien cm Quic te so (106)

* ' nSm 2010" v i van ban ChiSn luijrc quan su nam 2011 cua Van phdng « ' Phd fliam muu trudng quan dpi Philippm."

Cu ttia, vii My hop tic ve tang eudng nang luc au nmh biln phit • "I triSn manh me, hi6n huu tit ca eac mat cua quan he li&i minh Thu iljinbat, M^ v i Philippm tang cudng cac euoc Ddi ttioai chi6n luge song iif phuong (BSD) Diy l i hoat (Jong fliudng nien v i luan phien tai hai nude i„vdi su fliam du cua cic quan chiic cip cao ngoai giao v i qudc phdng ,4 (oap thli brudng b-d len), l i Icenh chinh ii hai nude tang cudng quan he

Uen mmh, mmh bach chinh sach." Hai ben bao ddi vj cic diich fliuc an nmh Hm vuc v i toin ciu, ttiao luan eac bien phap, phuong hudng tang iii c i | | ^ q u a n h6 lien minh, cong tic tang cudng ning l^c phdng tin! tap *i fliS, Alio lujn cac sang kien dl My thilc diy cic no luc hi?n dai hda quan 1,1 dpi, phat hien nang luc an nmh biSn cia Philippm; vjch Ice hoach va i,tri6n khai cac hojt dpng hpp tic quoc phdng, tang cudng nang hoat 1| ddng ehnng frong linh vuc an ninh biln v i nhjn flilSe vl biln."

' ' C h i thj vi hgp tic quoc it ciia quan dji Philippin nam 2010 neu r6 "quin doi Philippm cSn Ml da hoa Ifri ich Irong lien minh vdi My, dong then phSt irien quan he v(A ,1 cic dong minh tiem ning nhir Oc, Hin Quoc, NhSt Bin v i cic nirfc khic d i tang Iji cuimg an nmh quoc gia vi phit Bien ning luc quin dgi." Xem them Irong- Office of

Plans and Program (1-5), Strategic Direction of AFP International Military Affairs-.iSf^!' , " " " ^ ''^""P ° ™ = " ' Aguinaldo, Oflice of Plans and Pmgram, May ^I2010),p.2 =- -J J

' ' V i n bin Chiin liroc quan sir ciia Van ph6ng Pho Tham muu m i m g quan dpi Philippm nhan manh "Philippin chi co mpt Hi?p mSc iien minh chinh thiic voi MJ nen It P™ mo rSng vi ling cuemg quan he v6i miriii bay nuoc mi quan doi PhiUppin da k«

cic hifp djnh hsp tac an ninh." Xem them trong: Office of the Deputy Chief^if-Slaffi '"2™!) ''iT" °^"" '"'''"''''"''• ^'™'eic Intent (Quezon City: Camp Aguinaldo,

'^ir ' t r

it Cu«c doi thoai chien l u ^ song phuong Mjl-Philippin lin diu ti6n dir(rc tS chiic lai •! v i ' ? ' i l " " " ' " ' ^ O ' ' " ' 8an diy nhit Ii lin thli siu diln tji Washmgton DC tii n i y ijil 17-18/3/2016,

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Thu hai, hai nuac ky ket va trien khai Hi$p dinh hgip tic qu^ phong tang cuong (EDCA) Hiep dinh EDCA dirgrc k^ 28/4/2014 CO thoi h^n 10 nam va dugc Toa an toi cao Philippin phc chuan vao 12/01/2016, la cong cu cuoi ciing de th\rc hi?n Hi?p udc phong thu chung 1951.Theo do, My se ho tr? Philippin hi^n d^i hdaquSo doi, tli v^ phdt trien an ninh bien, nhan thuc ve bi^n, cthi trgr nhSn dao yk clhi hg tiiien tai Nguoc lai, My du(prc phep dieu luan phien quib ddi va cac trang thiet bi vao cac can cu quan S\T O Philippin ma hai ben thuong lupng va nhat tri My dugc si dung cdc ca scr quan sy; ciia Philippin ma khong phai tra ti^n thue."

Thli ba My ho trp t ^ chinh v i thiet bi quan si^ cho Philippin Trong giai doan 2002-2013, My dS cung cap t6ng cgng 312 tri?u USD vi?n trg quSn sy; cho Philippin vk nhieu lo^i thiet bi quSn su khdc nhau." Thang 8/2011, My chuyen giao cho PhiUppin m^t tiu cinh sfit bien Idp Hamilton va doi ten thinh tau chi huy BRP Grigorio del Pilar Chile tiu thli hai chuyin giao nam 2013 va d6i ten BRP Ramon Alcaraz.^' Thing 12/2013, Ngo?ti truong My John Kerry cam kit cung c^p khoin vi?n trg 40 tri?u USD t i Quy an ninh toin ciu (GSCF) cho cinh sit bi^ PhiUppin ba nam de ting cufirng nang lye an ninh biln v i cfaing khung b6.^

The Philippines Government, Agreement between the Government of the Republic'^ the Philippines and the Government of the United States of America on the Enhanctd Defense Cooperation, April 29,2014

"U.S Raises Military Assistance to the Philippines", Reuters July 31,2013: http://www.reutcrs.com/article/us-Phil(ppin-usa-idUSBRE96U0IG20130731

' "The Philippines to get 3"" Hamilton-class warship from US", Rappler, November 18, 2015; ht^7/www.rappler.cotn/nation/l 13195-philippines-navy-get-boutwell-cuttcr

"US caramarks $40-M for flie Philippmes' defense," Philstar, December 17,2013: http://www.phihitar.coni/hcadlines/2013/12/17/1269188/us-earmaiks-40-m-fiir-Philippines -defense

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Nghiin du Quic ti so (106)

]li(< Nam tai khoa 2016, My tnmg d p cho Philippm khoan vi$n tr(r

; t(l quin sir Ifa nhit 15 nam qua, bao g^m 79 trieu USD vien tro quSn ii|p sv v4 42 tri?u USD h§ tro an ninh biSn (chi«m 80% ciia goi hg tro 6hx ,^ tien thuQc Sang ki«n an ninh biln Dong Nam A (MSI) ma Bo tnrong ili, Qu6c phong My Ashton Carter tuyen b6 tai D6i thoai Shangri-la thang ,1, 5/2015) Manila va Washington ciing dang qua trinh dam phan ilil vifc Philippin mua tju 16p Hamilton tfaii tu tii My Ai tang cuong nSng i\ l\rc tuan tra bien." Ben csmh do, khflng quSn Philippin 06/4/2016 ii, dip nhan hai may bay v | n tai quan sv Lockheed Martin C-130T Super

Hercules da qua s4 dvmg tii hai quan My trj gia khoang 55 tri^u USD, ^ ™ g i° phia My ho tr? 20 tri6u USD

! «

« v ^ / ! ! ^ f • ? ' * , ' ° ° ' ^ ' ^ " * * ^ ' " l ' t c m m n h b i n v d i c c „ „ c D n ni « m , „ T * , a v " , ^ ^ ^^\ ã^"ô ^- ã^ã"^ ^"8 ' W ^ v « PhiUppia bao g S S

& T i T l ' ^ f f l " " ^ " ? ' • * •"*• '"y*" >•* M " ' » cho lai L n o i S rf, i l ^ L T i , ' " ^ ' '& ^ " ^ ^ " ' ^ ''"«°S, cung , Uu a L i chin, Ij cho Phihppm tJu oinh sit bifa Ife Hamilton thft ba, tiu cinh sit bi&i U S ( £ c

Boutwell v i dang qui tririi chuii bi ii chuyin giao tin nghien c i u WV M e M l c xiy dung Hi J o n g g i m sit bi, biln qu6c gia cu Philipmca v i ttiin khai cic h o j t d Z tain Iuy5n,_ ch4p phip, thSng tin dnh bio nhim phit hi^n, Ihco doi v i ngan chin c£ I w lujmg 1,1 phim, tren bi&i v i khilng b6 tren biln; (iv) Tang cuong cio cu««: tip i™, I* m^r'^^^Ait " ' r ^ / f " "^ "• "^"^ " " " ^ l-y^" MJ v i Bp tu I W Thii a ° , ? ? i "^-S ">4ng cic host dong chung; (v) H5 t v cii thiju an ninh lai cic

^ ^ t t t r ^ t t ^ ^ " "*'?* P " "'••'' ' ^ " '•'="• ' f ' " * ™ " " - S White Housẹ 2015 fi"í<tag Mirilime Q.;»cii), to i i a a J a o l Asia, November 17, " ' T " " f ' ' " ™ i ° ? „ ^ "-S- " " ' ' " ^ ' M l«><»t amid South China Sea dispute" ; i L : S s S ^ O ^ ' ^ l *:*ww.™,e,s.eon.a„ie,ệs„u,hcbinasea P h i U ^ e s " -" kJll° ' -" ' ' -" i P I ' -" -" -" ^ ' i ™ su^lus C-130S thim the US,-" IHS Janés April 05,

2016-http://wvvw.janes.com/art.ele/59318/ Philippines -receives-su.phu«-l30s-fe,m-the-us.'

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Thli tu My va PhiUppin tiln hanh cic hojit dgng chung nhu tap ttjii va tuan tia a Bien Dong Cic cuoc tap tran song phuong la ho§t dgpg thirong xuyen giiia quSn dpi My va Philippin nham tang cuong kha nang tvong tac va hoat dong chung, bao g6m: (i) Tap tr|n d6 bo (PHILBEX) la hoat dong huan luyen giiia linh thily danh bO va hai quan My voi qufin dgi Philippin, co tac dung tang cvcmg ph6i hop hoat dong cac lihh vvc tii ciiu tro thien tai din tSc chiln; (ii) Tap h?n h u ^ luyen sin sang chi ji ddu (CARAT) la hojt dong da phuong vtji sv tham gia ciia hai quan Mj va quan dai cac nuoc Nam va Dong Nam A, bao gam Philippin Tuy tiliig nu4c chu nha se dua chuong trinh t$p tran ov thl nhung v l co ban npi dung cua tap ttan la huln luy?n sin sang chiln tin tap trung vao nang CM nang Ivc an ninh biln, bao gom tac chiln danh chan tten biln, bp, tit chien ngam duoi biln v i ciiu ciiu nan; vk (iii) Tip trfin "vai ke vaT (Balikatan) la hojt dpng tap ttjn huan luyfn thuong nien song phuong t$p ttimg vao huin luyfn tim kilm ciiu nan va khung hoang nhan dao Nhung, cang thing Biln D8ng gia tang, n^i dung tjp din "vai kl vai" nio 2016 (dien tii 04-15/4) dupe m4 rpng, bao gom % k l hojch vi ttien khai cac hoat dpng bao v8 lanh thl, tun kilm ciiu nan, cihi tro thien tai, phai hpp boat d0ng chung v i diln tjp dpt klch giin khoan diu khi, Thanh phin tham gia tap Bin 'Vai k l vai" 2016 cung rOng hon, bao gom 4.000 binh sy PhiUppm, khoang 5.000 binh sy My va hon 80 binh sj* fe v i dai dien quin dai ciia 11 quoc gia voi tu each quan sit viSn, ban gom Nhat Bin, An Dp, Han Quic, Brunei, Campuchia, Indonesia, lio, Malaysia, Singapore, Thai Lan v i Timor Leste Ba ttudng Quic phong My Carter ngiy 13/4 tham PhiUppin trvc tiep thi sat cu^c tip ttjn Diyli lan dau tien mpt Bp truorng (Julc phong My tham dv cuOc tap ttin v« Philippin." Ben canh do, Bp tnrong Carter ttong buoi hpp bao ngiy

l b , Ton,^ " ^ °^"° "!"'' *',™'W'°'== « " B"lil»^ w games," Rapple,

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Nghien cmi Quic te si (106)

14/4/2016 tjii Manila cho bilt My v i Philippin d i thuc h i ^ hai cupc t u k tta Chung Bien Dang tit diu nam 2016 (mpt cupc diln vao thing v i

m, f ' ^ ™° " ^ ^ "^ ^^ ^ ^ ' " ''^ ' « ' ' ' * "='«' "^^^ >«">' « n g tuin tta 'm thuong le ttong nrong lai."

'«((

,^j Thu nam My v i Philippin da dat dupe thoa thuan My sii dung

: cac can cii quan sv cr PhiUppin Ngiy 18/3/2016, hai ben da dat duoc ^^ thaa thuan l i My sii dung can cii quan sv o PhiUppin ttong vong ^^ mua, nam, bao gam can cii khong quan Antonio Bautista, can cii khong

^.i " f " ^'T ° ' " ° ^^"'^^ ' * " ™ " " ^ '"y*- I ' " " Masaysay o Palawan, can cu khang quan Lmibia c- Mindanao v i can cu khong quan Mactan-y , ^ ' " f =''"=° " , S * " - MSc du t h « gian chinh xac v i Ivc Ivong cv thl cua My dvpc dieu dpng luan phien din cac can cii niy ehua duoc cang ba, gipi quan sat dv doan ring ho,t dpng cua My a cac can cii quan sv •I- niy CO the bao gom cic don vj linh thfty danh bp duoc dilu chuyin luan phien giang nhu o can cii Darwm cua Oc Hifn t,i, PhiUppin v i My dang thuong lug^g v l viec van hanh, chi huy va ma hinh hoa dang "• cua cac can cii niy.^' ' ' j Nhdt Ban, hpp tic an ninh biln l i linh w o quan ttpng ttong ^^ quan hj PhUIppin-Nhit Bin ttpng nhiing nam gin diy vl c i hai nuoc diu

^^ pha, doi mat v6i hanh xii hang tten biln cua Trang Qu6c ( v «

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'" u'^'^'lO^^" "T.T' " ' " " ^ """"^""""^ Philippines," Star, andStripes April ãã taugS,ppi?4o':j?r'"'='"-^"^'"'ô''ô -^^^^

L TOKCNOwS ' " * " ^ - " " ' " " ""'"""•^—.hchmasea-usa-Philippi.es:

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plans-use-1

PhiUppin Biln Dong v i Nhit Bin a Hoa Dong) Tokyo da tich cvc hi ttp Philippm phat trien nang Ivc an ninh bien thdng qua ba ITnh vvc hgp tac Thli nhit, Nhit Ban h6 tn? v i chuyin giao thilt bi quan sv cho PhiUppin Do quy djnh ciia Hiln phap 1947, Nhiit Ban khong dupe xuit khiu VU nude ngoai nen ttong hpp tic, Nh|t Ban phii sii dyng ngu6n v8n vien ttv chinh thiic (ODA) thang qua cac co quan hpp ^ phat triln Vi du, thing 7/2013, Thu tuoog Nhat Bin Shinzo Abe tuyen bo cung cap cho Philippin 10 tiu tuin tra thang qua nguon von ODA.di tang cuong nang Ivc cho cinh sat biln ciia Philippm." Co quan hpp Iii phat ttiln Nhjt Ban (JICA) dupe chi djnh cung cap 19 ty YSn (khoang 184 trilu USD) cho PhOippin de mua cac tau n i y "

Nhung, cang thang tranh chip biln vdi Trung Quoc gia tang, npi cac chmh phi Tiu ni6ng Shinzo Abe thing 7/2014 diln giai l(i Hien phap, cho phep quita dpi Nhit Ban tham gia vao cic ho?t dpng phong vp tip dil.^' Nhiit Ban cilng thang qua ba nguyen tie ve chujA

Ministry of Foreign Ailiiiis of Japan, Japan-Philippines Summit Meeting July ^

" Thing 6/2015, Ting thong Aquino tham Nhjt Bin vi kj h?p ding viM Tip doin d««|

M cua Nhjt Bin (Japan Marine United Coiporation) de d6ng 10 tiu cho cinh sit A Philippm Xem them ttong: Ministty of Foreign Afiairs of Jqian, Japan-Phllippin^mi DeclaraHon A Strengthened Strategic Pannership for Advancing the Shared Princ^k and Goals of Peace Security, and Growth in the Region and Beyond June 4,2015 ^

(15)

Nghien cm Quic te so (106)

^^ giao tUlt bi vi cang nghe qu6c phfing (thing 4/2014), mo ca hpi hpp ^ ^ tac qnoc phong v6i nuoc ngoai Ngiy 29/2^016, Tokyo vi Manila k^ .,4, '"'P *** '^^^ S ^ *^ bi quae phong (hiep djnh diu tiSn mi Nhat ^ , Ban k^voi mOt nuoc a Dong Nam A) Tren co so do, hai nude thuong

lupng ve vi&: Nh|t Ban eho PhiUppin mupn miy bay TC-90 dl tang to At ™*"^ " ^ ^ ' ™ ' ' " ^ ' " ' ' ^ "*• ""^ bila"

iU Thli hai, Nhit Ban va PhiUppm t3 chiic cac cupc tip tt«n chung ,Bi Thing 1/2015, Bp ttuong Quic phong Nhjt Ban va PhUippin ky bin ghi Yip nhd (MOU) ve hpp tie va ttao dii qn6c ph6ng, g^m vipc hai quin hai

nu4c CO the to chiic cic cupc tap ttin chung song phuong nhim tang c t r ^ k h a nang phii hpp vi hoat dpng chung Cupc tjp ttin song ^^^ phuong dau a&i diln Biln Dang la tip ttin tlah bio, ttinh sat vi , ^- glim sit dien vio thing 6/2015 a dao Palawan vdi su fliam gia eiia ,^^ miy bay man tta P3C cto Nhit Ban Npi dung cu«e ta, ttan bao gIm dii

phd vol cac cuOcva Cham ngoii JmulnttSn biln, cduttonhan dao cdu hp thiSn tai vi an toin hing hii BSn c»nh dd, Nhit Bin ciing thudng ^ xuySn cd dai dien tham gia vdi tu cich quan sit vien ttong cic cu«c t$p ttjn song phuong giih My vi PhiUppin nhu hpp tic huin luyto vi sin ;^,sing^ chien dau tten biln (CARAT), tjp ttin d6 bO thudng nien i^ (PHIBLEX) va gan day nhit li tjp ttjn 'Vai ke vai' 2016 "

nih

,js Thli ba, Nh|t Bin dilu tiu chiln tham cing biln ciia PhiUppm „ Ngiy 3/4/2016, tiu ngim JS Oyashio (SS-51I) vi hai khu ttvc ham m Anake vl Setogiri eua Nhjt Bin ftSm cing Subic Day li lin diu tien

X ^ ^ T w t " h f T l ' * " ™ " ^ • ° " ' " * ' ™ " P P i ° » " n^CNews, • » l „ r r , ã '^*'ô-8'ằ"''Mằ'ioi>ôlftrireS0)tyflaoan-siinis-cl-J supply-defense-equipment- Philippmes -37277478 "-'^*°'«™™-8°'»"''M»™'ioi>«lftrireS0)tyflaoan-siinis-™cl-J'j«p»i-signs-pact- "-J'j«p»i-signs-pact-* ^ ? ' ™ ^ „ ^ ' " J ' ' ii'fSf'" ^ " " " ' y Cooperation with ASEAN: Pmsuit of a Stanis as a V.-^'i'y^P'-^.'m)SJou,nalorD,fensea,dSecurify.OeeeniJltlo^^^^

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u ^ 15 nam tau ngSm ciia-Nhat Ban ghe tham Philippin.^^ Sau d6, tau san bay true thang Ise cua NhSt Ban cung c|p cang Subic.^* Trong cac dip tau chien Nhat Ban cap cang cua Philippin, iJaiy thii d o ^ v i quSn dQi Philippin deu to chiic cac hoat dgng giao Iiru, tuong tac tang cuong long tin va hieu biet Imh vuc an ninh biln

Vai Oc va Han Quoc vi loi ich cua Han Qu6c va Oc a BiSn D6ng '

khong Ion nen miirc hop tac giua Philippin va cac nirac chu yeu la cac hoat dpng trao doi thong tin va fauon ban vii Philippin va Han Quoc k;^ Ban ghi nhd ve hop tic qu6c phdng nam 1994 va gia han vio nam 2007 Hai nude da to chiic cic hoat dgng chung trao doi thong tin va kinh nghiem, quan chiic quoc phong tham vi^ng Ian nhau, giio di^c vi dio t^o, ho trgr nhan d?o v i gin giiJ hoa bmh quoc t^ Quan d6i hai nude t6 chiic cac cugc hgp thudng niSn giiia lye lugng khong quin hai nude, Ivc lugng tinh bio, hgp Uy ban hon hgp ve hgp tic h^u can v i cong nghiep quoc phdng Nam 2012, Philippin v i Han Quoc dim phan \i vi?c Phih'ppm mua 12 miy bay Dai bing ving F/A-50 tri gia khoang 410 tri?u US$ de tang cudng nang l\rc tuin tra bi^.^'' Nam 2013, Pliilippin mua hai tiu khu true Idp hicheon 1.400 tin tri gii 400 tri$u USD '^ Thing 3/2014

Japan sub makes port call in Subic," GMA Network, April 2016: http://www.gmanetwork.com/ncws/story/561338/news/nationflapaii-sub-makcs-Dort-call-in-sabic

" "Japanese destroyer arrives in the Philippines amid South China Sea tensions,'' <tli " Intemanonal Business Times April 27, 2016; http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/japanese- l"* destroyer-arnves-PhiKppin-amid-south-china-sea-tensions-lS5692I

Louie Dane C Merced, "The potentials and limits of Philippines-South Korea mantime defense ccroperation," FSI Insight, Vol.1, No.4, September 2014, p.3

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Nghien cihi QuSc teso (106}

,i,KAD de san xuat cic miy bay niy vi du Idfo chuyen giao sau 38 t h ^ » !<* Trongkhid6,Philippnivi&nin,2007k^Hi|p4inhqu6cph6ng

H012 r i J - r - ' ^ " ' " ^ ^^ ^"^"^ ""^ chuin vio thing ^«Mnn n - ' " / " ' ^ " ^ "^ " " ^ ^ » & kai nuAc "niang J 0/201 , B, tt^nig Qu&i ph6ng hai nude quy^t dinh lap cie ^ hu Btoh minh Caiacha vi Hoing hon Camcha; ehu^ig ftinh huin luyen ^ ^ ^ Oc dong ttiAi ng6 f mu& fliam gia tip tnta "Vai kl vai" song - ^ g i u a My vi Philippm Tiling 4/2016, & cii hon 80 binh s? vi _ > bay hjan „ RAAF AP-SC Orion Uiam gia tjp h ^ - ^ ^J ' J

^^^1$u USD) phvc wi cho cie h e t dOng eiiu hp eiiu nan.-'

"'^J'*"' '?•/' "'" '"^ '""^ "'^ '''^ "'f- 'W"" »** ««g

j/trnganmnhbiln ^ rAan* ftra

(18)

I Thu nhdt, Philippin da thiit lip dugc mang ludi lien minh va d6i

ch^t che dira tren loi ich chung d Bien Dong My coi Philippin l i mit [quan trong tinh toin chi^n lugrc d Bi6n Dong vi Philippin B nhung l i ddng minh nhit cua My so cic nude yeu sach, k n an ngu; d chuoi dio thii nhat ^cidka luge chong t i ^ can^hong toa cua Tnmg Quoc (A2/AD).'*^ Trong dd, Philippin tn^ thinh dong minh tu nhien cila Nhit Ban chong lai cic hinh dgng hang tren bien cua Tnmg Quoc, v i l i d6i tic quan trong n6 luc cQa Nhat Bin sii dung ho trg xiy d\mg nang Ivrc an ninh bien de thS hi^n vai trd nu(fc Idn d khu vuc.*^ Vdi tic, Philippin trd thinh mgt phan quan trong nS l\rc tri tr$t tgr d\ra tren lu^t 1? d khu v\rc dugc neu Sich tring quoc phdng 2016

Thu hai, cic dv an hgp tic ciia Philippin vdi cic doi tic, nhat \i

My dang giai dogji dau nhung ciing dan diigc chuyen thinh siic manh ran de tren thyc dia Vi dv, tfir dau nim 2016, Mf v i Philippin dl thvc hi?n hai cuOc tuan tra chung d Bien Dong (mgt cu^c dien vio thing 3, mgt cugc vio thing v i dang I€n ke hoEich cho cic ho^t d$Dg

*^ "Chfing tiep c|n/phong toa" U ofm tir dagc B§ Quoc ph6ng MJ sii dyng d^ mifiu ti chien luge qikn sv mA Trung Qu6c sur dyne Sk ngSn can cac Ivc liipng ctSa My hojt d$Dg £r khu vvc Tay Thii Binh Duong "Ch6ng tiep c$n" U nhiun lilm ch§in qui Btii^ d6i thii di^u d$ng cac Ivc luvng vio dja bin h o ^ d$ag (theater of operations) h o ^ , ^ doi thu (M)0 ho^t d$ng d xa d)a bin "Ch6ng phong tda" l i nl^m cin trdr nang Ko^ d$ng ciia doi tbii cr dja bin cic Ivc lupng dupe di^u d$ng den Xem them trong: Chainnan of Joint CMefs of Staff, US Ministry of Defense, Joint Operational Accat Concept, January 17, 2012; US Department of Defense, MiliUtry and Secur^ Developments involving the People's Republic of China 2013; US Department irf Defense, Air-Sea Battle: Service Collaboration lo Address Anti-Access & Area Denial Challenges, May 2013

*^ Tom Holcombe, "Japan's capacity building strategy at waric in Qie Philippines," TAc Interpreter, March 22,2016

** Malcolm Davis, "What does Rodrigo Duterte mean for South China Sea tension?" The Strategist, May 12,2016

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Nghien du Quic li so (106)

H tuin tra thutog 1$ tiSp theo).« Philipines v i My iim rt ta chiic tip tran «l "vai Ice vai" diang 3/2016 Cie tiu chiln Nhat Ban, bao gSm tiu sin bay ft ttvc fliang ttiam cang Subic va tien hinh eic hoat dong chung vai quan k dOi Philippin, y.v Nhung, Tnmg Quflc chi len tiing de djt vô mat ngoai ãfi giao v i Ipem chi cac boat dpng o viing biSn ciia Philippin.'" ' Hfn chi

•ji

Ik Tuy nhien, chinh quyen Tong tti6ng Aquino th^tc hifn chinh 1| sich niy ciing gjp nhung kho khan nhat djnh ttong qui trinh triSn khai •* Thu nhat, Philippm fiiilu nguon l\rc ve tii chmh Bay la nguyen " n ^ "^'^ f° ''™ " ^ ^^ ' ' ° ' * " » « ^ «= tir nam 2012 chua duyc

.•^M^f' *=y *"• Tkeo chuyen gia Richard D Fisher (Trung tim dinh I gii chiln bitfc va qu6c tl-IASC, My), PhiUppin d u trang bi tfii thiiu 48 a, miy bay chien ddu F-16 nang d p len thl he ttiii Phien bin ning cSp if niy bao g6m ra-da di$n t4 va cic vu hi?n dai dil dl dii vdi hai „ hing khong mlu ham cua Trung Quoc v i 50 miy bay ehiln dau J-15 flil ,1 h$ ttiil d-6n hing khong mlu hiim Khdng quin Philippm cin sam them

cic miy bay tin cdng mat nude, cic he thing da mat dat tam xa vi ra-da trto khong dl chi huy chiln diu, hii quan Philippin can !- thSm tiu khu trvc hi?n dai, cac tiu hO v? c9 nho tin c6ng nhanh v i tiu

qu6t thuy Ifli Philippin cOng cin tdi khoang - tiu ngim loai nhd hi$n dai i& t i c c h i l n nhanh "*'

dji dl tic chiln nhanh."

i l " " ^ t.'^T" T " '^'^"'^ """^ " ^ " S h the Philippines," Stars andStripes April i rii-:, ''"''ã""""l"="<"^"ô'ằ's/pacificMs-lo-rotate-nôjre-aircrafl-lrooiis-tnrough-Philippm-1.404418

« Aileen S.P Baviera, ^mpIications of tlie US-Philippines Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement," East West Center's Asia Pacific Bulletin No.262 May 2014; Dan De Lnee, "China fea„ bring Ihe US militan: back to he Philippines"

ForeignAffalrs.iamar/ll.20\6 ""ippines, r » « ) f " ' ' > / ' ? ? ^ f - ^ r * ' " * "" 'ã*''ô"'"ô=ãã '^""ôy Uodemieation and the

(20)

D6 mua sIm dugc cic thilt bj nay, Philippin phii clii gap biy lig ngto sich quoc phong hi#n tai Bilu Ii khong tuong vi nen kijii i cua Philippin b6 nho v i 70% ngan sich quic phong diing d l chi hi cii khoan luong v i phu cip cho quan d0i Philippin cfing bi mic k?t boi qi; dinh ciia hien phip 1987 l i chinh phil khong duoc chi cho quoc phjiij cao hon giio dye."* Ngay c i phuong an thue mu6n thilt hi tijr nude ngoi van kem thi vl chi phi fliue mudn vln cao Philippin khai dugc Idem soat toin bp cac thilt bi thuS."'

Thir hai, siic n^uih ran de ciia Philippin chua thl du6i kjp Tning

Quic vi ttong Philippin tang cuong siic mjuih ran de, Bac Kinh cilii| dau tu Ion vao vi$c phat triln cic i\fc lupng hii quin v i chap phip Chuyen gia Ronald OTlourke (Co quan nghiSn ciiu Qnoc h^i My-CRS) fliang 3/2016 cong b l nghiSn ciiu chi tilt ve hii quin eua Trung QiA cho thay Bic Kinh dang hi$n dfi h6a hai quin trSn mpi phuong di^nvi bien che mdi cic fliilt bi quin svr, bao gIm: ten liia djn djo ching hp v4 tin liia hinh trinh ching ham, tiu ngim, tiu sin bay, may bay trii hing khong mlu hjm, cic tiu chiln mjt nude, tau bO, miy bay tii dil lien, miy bay kh6ng ngudi lai, cic h? flilng giim sit biln v i nang lyt chien tranh thdng tin hai quin.^"

" Peter Chalk, Rebuilding while reforming: Military modernization in Ihe PMIimlm, Austrahan Strategic Policy Institute June 2014, p l

' D I ^ ™ " ° ' ' ' ° ' " " ' ~"" '*»"'"° •'''"••"•"ration's 2011 Decision lo Shm » t PhUippmes Defense PoUcyfrom Internal Security to Territorial Defense: The Impoa •! the South Chma Sea Dispute" The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 24(1) MH " Tning Qaie t2ng cuimg hi$n dji h6a quto sv, nhit 14 d6ng moi cic rang Ihiilj T° ' ^ ; , ' ^ , ' ^ ? , K " - H •^*° " ^ '"^° ••'•* '* * • '*• "^ '^ =l>&g ham Dftl Phong PF21-D); Cu) TSn ngim hat nhSn mang ten 14 d?n dao nhit 14p Jin rfwe 09(1 va lop Shang-Type 093, tiu ngim di^n-diesel liSp Yuan-Type 039A v i lop Song-Till 039/039G; (iii) D m vSo sii dvmg d u sin bay Lieu Ninh mua tft Ukraina (thin gflOB c6 toong gian mnSc 60.000 tin v i c6 the dij ch* 24 miy bay chien diu I I , ttvc d S

(21)

Nghien cm Quic tisi (106)

'*

i i , ^ " " S Q u ^ o t a g i a p tnmg phit ttiln cic luc luong chip phap v i (j^ » ' * ' > " * Ivc lupng chinh ttmm gia vao cic vu viec dam v a v i cuong ep , j^l t ^ Uivrc dia Bang so sinh luc lupng hii quan giiia Philippin v i mdt , ^ so nuoc ttong khu vuc cung chi ro Tnmg Quic la nude cd ham ddi hii j ^ canh Ion nhit the gidi vdi 205 tin Idn nhd eic loai, Idn hon nhilu so vdi

eac nuoc d Ddng Nam A cdng lai (69 chile, ttong dd Philippm chi cd J ^ ^ ' i ^ ' ™ "^ ' ' "^^ '^•^'^ ™ * '^^ ^4 Malaysia cd ehiec) Hiang 7fl015, Trung Qudc dua vio ho,t ddng tau hai cinh "flil ^ hfuio 12.000 tan, cd flie dam va tiu 20.000 tin fl«n chi danh chim ^ a n 9.000 tan m i khdng h i hin gi.-Trung Quic ciing ehuyin ddi cie * H I d l u ttvc fliinh tin hii cinh Vi d^^ b i n tin khu ttyc Idp Khuong Duy f • ' r ™ < ^ " ) " ' ^ W e u dii 112 mdt, rdng 12 met, lupng gian nude 2.300 I, tan vm ttve miy diesel dupe hai quan chuyin cho hai cinh d l fliuc flii

I- ^ % r * ' ^ U3.^u, (y) Cac tau khu true nhir J anewei T-Tvm- n s i Htr J|angwe, H - I ^ 053H3, J i a n ^ l.T^p 054 a n l L g k a i T C o M r N ^ 2T1?' Tning Quoc dua vao bi&, ciilba tiu khu ttuc J i a n c k a i T t v ™ O U A T ^ I x ™ S

-MB ttang bl ra-da hien dji, ten toa dii khong P W v i P I , J 7vii,^>7- \ , , u - "

i ' e m c e « g » « , N o R L 3 S , M a r c h ! ^ w T ^ " ' = ° " ^ » » - ' * = « » » « *

I 'ppf2^'^°'°"^'^'^''"-^'"''^"^''»"^'yStrategy.A.g^t20,S,

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, '^'»if^'sNewGenerationofCoastGuaniaiiDisPnwPrf5.i"i"i.- -a ^ t W y : h „ p : / / e n p e o p , e c n / „ f l X S : ' i : S ^ W ^ ^ ' " ' " = ^ *

(22)

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n h i ^ vy chip phip d Bien Bdng Cac tiu niy dupe stra trIng vi thay thio mOt si thiet bi vii nhu b§ phdng ten liia chong h^m YJ83, h| phdng ten liia dii khdng HCJ-61, h6 flilng siing 100 mm vi hai b$ sing hai nong 37 mm d cuoi boong tiu, nhung hai be siing hai ndng 37 mm J phia tnidc boong tiu dupe giii l^i.^^

Ben c ^ dd, Bic Kinh ciing tiing bude quan su hda Biln Dong bang vi|c dua tin liia dit dii khdng HQ-9 dio Phd Lam d Hoing Sa ciia Vi$t Nam mi Trung Quoc chilm ddng ttii phep; xiy dpng co s4 quan svr, dudng bang vi ra-da d di Chii ThIp, di Xu Bi vi di Vinh Khan tt«n quan dio Trudng Sa cua Vi?t Nam mi Trung Quoc chiem ddng trii phep Khi cic hojt dOng xiy dvmg tten cic dio nhin tjio i | Trudng Sa hoin tit, tiu hii quin vi chip phip cua Tnmg Quic cd the md rpng hoat dpng dii ngiy xuing phia nam Biln Ddng Theo nhiin dinh cua nhdm chuyen gia fliupc Trung tim Nghien cihi ehiln lupc vi quic It (CSIS) tty sd d Washington DC, nlu tiln ttmh niytilpdienmikhongbj ngin chpi, Trang Quic cd flil biln Biln Ddng trd tiiinh cii "ao nM" vao nam 2030."

m ba, hi?p udc liSn minh vdi My chua du dl bao vp Philippin Quan h | an ninh Phillppin-My dupe tang eudng vdi vi|c hai bin k^ ket Hifp djnh hpp tie quoc phdng md i^ng va djit ttida tiiujn My sii dpg nam can cii quin sy d PhUippin Tuy nhiSn, cac can cii niy diu li can ci khdng quin (bin can cu khdng quin vi mpt can cii huin luyin mft dit), khdng cd can cii hai quin Gidi phin flch quic tl l§p luin ring MJ ci ttil sii dgng lijrc lupng khdng quan dl phin ling nhanh vdi su biln d Biin

"China converting old ftigates mto coastguard cutteis," IHS Jane's July 28 201S; hltp://v™w.janes.com/aiticle/53248/china-convening-old-frigates-mto-coastguarf-" Micheal Green el al., Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities Presence PortneraAyw, Center for Srategic and International Sttidies, January 19* 2016

(23)

Nghien du Quoc le so (106)

inYlt '°°"*' ' ^ ™ * " " "^ y •"*» ^^^ •*" "^-g Tong lie cic fliich fliiic an ^^ ninh bien ttpng khu virc dang noi len, khdng quin khdng flil mpt mihh

' giai quylt goc re eic bit I n ma cin phii cd su Men dien cua hii quan v4 ' chap phip bdi vi day l i nhiing luc lupng chinh m i Trung (Julc su dyng de md rpng kilm soil t e n biln.'' Trpng dd, eac nha quan sat Iii Philippin hoii nghi ring My se khdng bio ve PhiUppin flieo nghia vu eiia iHi Hi?p udc phdng tini chung nlu nhu Philippin bi tin cdng vi My cOng tim %, cich ttinh d m g dp Trung (Jule tten tiiuc dia Thing 11/2014, My v i viji Trung Quic ky hai bin ghi nhd (MOLT) v l cic "quy tic ttinh dung dp Oii ttmlAdng" va "flidng bio eic hoat dpng quan su", sau dd md rpng cho * J ^ P k h n g v i tten biln ttong ttong chuyin fliam My tiling 9/2015 eua jj,, Chi tich Trung Quoc Tjp Cjn Bmh."

' * ^ Triln vpng chiln Iirprc an ninh biln ciia PhiUppin dudi thdi i«f Tong thong Rodrigo Duterte

oiiii

.^ Ngiy 30/5/2016, Quic hpi Philippm toycn b l dng Rodrigo Diiterte,^tiii ttudng fliinh phi Davao d mien nam PhiUppin ttd tiiinh Tong tiling tini 16 cua PhiUppm nhiem k^ 2016-2022 sau da giinh

m dupe hon 16,6 tti?u philu blu (khoing 38,6% ttong s i hon 44 ttipu cii

lil tri, nhieu hon ngudi ddng tiiu hai Mar Roxas 6,4 ttiSu philu blu) ttong

lil J

" ' ^ , f » ; N ™ U S - P M U p p m e s Basing Deal Heavy on Air Power, Light on Naval Suppoi^ USNINews March 22, 2016: hnp://news.Dsm.org/20I6A)3/22/analysis-new-j l u-«-philippme-basmg-ded-heavy-on-air-power-IighMn-naval-support ii " (i) MOU vi quy tic ttinh dung d« tren kh6ng v i tten biln co tac dmig ttinh dung

bit ng4 va cic tt^ loin sai v i hieu nham miy bay v i tiu ehiln gip m i khong bio truoc; (.,) MOU v i fliong bio cie ho,t dong quin sw nhim tang cucmg su minh • bjch g,m quan dpi Trang Q^ v i My, tjo tiln 1| vS v i ^ chia se thong tin liSn quan r T i i ^ l ? u an nmh <r moi nuoc va thilt l|p co chi khuyin khich quan dpi Tirang Qu6c vi MJ iham gia cac cuSc tip ttin fir khu vuc v « to cich la quan sit vien Xem , ftSm ttong: While House f n « Sheel: President« Jinplng's Smie mil to the United

Suites September 25.2015

(24)

cupc bau cu ting thing 9/5/2016." Ong Duterte vupt qua cacibij cti vien n|ng ky nhu Phd Ting tiling Binay, Bp ttudng Npi vy M, Roxas (cinh tay phii cua Ting Uilng Aquino) v i Thupng nghj si Gua Poe Mae du khdng Idnh qua chinh quyln trung uong nhung dng Dutoit da giinh dupe su tin nhipm cua ddng dio cil tii Philippin vi tinh cM tiling, mimh me cpng vdi uy tin ttong qua trinh hon 20 nam dio hanh chinh quyln d Davao Ong Duterte da biln Davao tft mpt tiianh pli diy tdi phjm v i bjo luc fliinh mot fliinh p h i van minh, ttjt tu vi dlijc vi nhu mpt Singapore thu nhd.^^

Su ndi len cua dng Duterte khdng nhiing mang din lulng gid ttong chinh tnrdng PhiUppin m i cdn md flidi k^ mdi ttong chmh sU Biln Bdng ciia PhiUppm vi 6ng Duterte cd nhiing phit bilu khicvS chmh sich ciia chinh quyln Tong fliong Aquino, nhit l i vifc hda hoin vdi Tnmg Qudc Trong flidi gian ti:anh cu, dng Duterte nhilu lan n6i li gic Ifi yeu sich ciia Philippin, dam phin song phuong nlu Trang Qui xiy d\mg duong sit cho PhiUppm v i ciing khai tiiic tii nguyen dlthi vuc ttanh chip." Sau ngiy blu cii, dng Duterte phit bilu mIm mdngvl cin bang hon de cap din vi$c dim phin da phuong, bao gIm Nhjt Bin, Uc va cic nude yeu sich khic, dong tiidi nhac l?i nii|

'The Philippines Congress proclaims Duterte winner of presidential elet

S ™ o S r a ° ' ^"'^^ ^ã"'^ã"^"'ãã^ã^^''ã^-ôPPi-ô^

Tni"^ " " S t " " ' " '°°'°' ' " ' ' ° ^"""^ * " ""wiiPPi""." ne Economist, Msyl 2016 h"p://w»w.economist.coni/news/a8iaai698457-rodrigo-duterte-will-prob*-be-nexl-president-Philippincs-thuggish-mayor-looks-set

r » ? ? , " l ° f / " ™ ' ' ° " ' ^ ° * ^^ ™ * "'^' ° ™ ' >"^""=." '"l-lrer April 11, 2016 http.//globalnatlon.mqmrer.nct/I384S7/dutBrte-favors-makin8-deal-chin dispute#biz248JlmELkc

(25)

Nghien dm Quoc ti si 3(106)

' * f ^ f ! ^ ""ãô " ' " " " ^ « Trang Q u I e " Ngiy 16/5/2016 tai Davao * , " ^ " ^ ' " " ^ ' ^ ' ^ " ^ ^ <^*P " ^ -^y vdi Bai su Trang Quic tai

iH f^ r " ' " ° * ^ " " ^ ^ ^ ° ' ' ^ ' " ' ^ "^fl^g *P » * vdi Ting tiling

,^j ^^yObamattongcuOedipudimsauddringnlutilnttinhhientitikhdng j ^ a?'ket qua, PhiUppin se dam phin vdi Trang Quoc."

! ' r = ? ^ ^ ' ^" " " " " ^ "*''• ^ ' ^ =' ' " * " " H^y""*"- ( B - "oc De 11, La Salle, Phtiippin) cho rang dng Duterte se khdng tiieo dudi ehmh sich

cung ran ciia chinh quyln Aquino m i can bing hon: bio ve yeu sich cua i|, Philippm ttong cin bing quan h6 vdi My v i Trang Qudc Ong "^ w S T " ' * " " " * ** ^ " " ^ ^ ^ * ^y vi l i ding minh v i hpp tic an j r , ^ a i p q u i n s„ giiia hai nude gin day p h i ttiln m ^ me vdi vipe ky kit il Hilp d,nh hpp tic quoc phdng tang cudng v i d,t tiida tiiuan v l vipe My il sd dvng nam cin ed quan sir d PhiUppin Nhung, quan hp vdi Trang ,, Qudc cmig se dupe cii tiiien vi dng Duterte cd tiiien hudng phit ttiln ^ hem l i ran de.« Do dd, dng Duterte ed flil se dilu chinh ehmh sich phit i,, mln nang l,rc an ninh biln eua PhiUppm nhmig npi dung dilu chmh cu

1 thl phu tiiudc vip cic quylt djnh chinh fliiic sau dng Duterte nhin ,j nhilm sd v i tily vio hinh xu tilp flieo ciia Trang Qnlc ChuySn p a

U^t m ' i f E i r , ; ' " " " " ' " " ' *•" ™™" " " » ' " South Chin Sea spat" Reuters

li 2'o'l'?.TrS'"™"''''^*'"'>'°"'™''"'^™'l>B=iJi«sri<™iB7!™^ Mav 17

*

(26)

m^

Malcolm Cook (ViSn nghien cihi Dong Nam A, Singapore) kbSng djnh dieu va cho rSng n6u Tnmg Qu6c tilp ti^c xay d\mg cac cong trinh quan su d Scarborou^, hanh xu quyet dofin va himg hang thl 6Dg Duterte kho co the theo duoi chinh sach m8m mong Ngugrc lai, Tning Quoc hanh xii phii hop voi loi ich cua Philippin thi cac d\r an hop tdc c6 the kha thi."

Ket luan

Philippin du6i thoi Tong thong Aquino da no l\rc tap trung mpi nguon luc de phdt trien nang Ivrc an ninh bien vdi muc ti£u c6 duoc lye lu^ng hai quan v^ chdp phap dii manh de bao v$ c h i quyen ISnh tho tren bien Ben c^nh cac chucmg trinh hien dai hoa nudfc, Philippin mo rgng h^p tdc quoc tl, liy liSn minh v6i My ^ tr\i cOt va md r^ng hqj tdc voi cdc nude d6i tdc mang Iu6i lien minh ciia My d khu vi^c

Chinh sach da d^it dugc nhiing t\iu nhat dinh Philippin da xay dyng dugc mot m ^ g ludi li6n minh v i doi tac ch^t che Cac hpp tac giua Philippin vk cac dfii tac, nhat \k Mf dan chuyen siic msfnh ran de tr6n th^c dia Nhung, nhihig nS Ixfc cua Philippin la chua du dl c6 dugc mpt "siic m ^ ran de dii tin c$y" truac mpt Trung Qu^c to Ida Philippin khong dii ngan sach cho cac hang muc hi§n dai hoa quSn sv, trong Tnmg Qu6c 6ku ta rat manh Cac d\r an hgp tdc quoc tl, kl ci hiep udc lien minh vdi My cung kh6ng dii chSc ch5n d l hko v? Philippin

g xay

"Ehitertc's Soufii China Sea stance could shake up security ties with Japan, US,' Japan limes May 10, 2016: http-.//www.japantime5.co.jp/news/2016/05/10/a^ pacific/poiitics-dipIomacy-asia-iJacific/Philippines-china-stance-duterte-shake-sccurity-ties-iaoan-u-s/

(27)

Nghien du Quic te si (106) Uii p

• Tong thdng mdi cua PhiUppin Rodrigo Duterte tiidi lulng gid nidi ^^ vio chinh sich Biln Bdng eua PhiUppin dng ed cich tilp can cin ^^^ bang hon chmh (piyln Aquino Ong Duterte vln tilp tue tri Uen

, ^ minh vdi My nhung cung d l c«p din vipe dim phin song phuong vdi Trung Quic d l giai quylt tranh chip Biln Ddng Do dd, nhilu nang dng Duterte se dilu chinh chmh sich phit triln nang luc an mnh biln ciia Philippin nhung ndi dung dilu chinh cu till phu tiiupc vio eic quylt dinh 11^ chmh tiiuc sau dng Duterte nhiin nhiem sd v i ciing tiy tiiudc vao jj, nliinig hinh xii tilp tiieo cda Trang Quoc

(28)

rAr LIEU THAMKHAO

1 Departtnent of National Defense (DND), Transforming the

Department of Natiorud Defense to effectively meet Ihe defense and security challenges of the 21" century: a white paper on Philippine defense transformation, (Camp Aguinaldo, CJuezon

City, July 2012)

2 International Affairs Division, Office of tiie Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans (J-5), Philippines-Australia Defense Relations (Camp Aguinaldo, Quezon City: Office of tiie Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans, June 2014)

3 Ministiy of Foreign Affairs of Japan, Japan-Philippines Summit

Meeting, December 13,2013

4 Office of flie Deputy Chief-of-Staff, Armed Forces of Ihe

Philippines: Strategic Intent (Quezon City: Camp Agumaldo

2011)

5 Office of Plans and Program, AFP's Capability Assessment, presented during die National Defense and Security Review Module Piimmg Session (Camp Aqumaldo, Quezon City: National Defense CoUege of flie Philippines, 3-9 September 2007)

6 Office of Plans and Program (J-5), Strategic Direction of AFP

International Military Affairs: Executive Summary (Camp

Aguinaldo, Office of Plans and Program, May 2010) 7 The Philippines Govenunent, Enhanced Difense Cooperation

(29)

Ighien ciiu Quic tisi3 (106)

8 The White Hous^ FACT SHEET: U.S Building Maritime

, Capacity in Southeast Asia OfHce of flie Press Seeietarv ^ November 17,2015

, US Department of Stale, Sixth United States- Philippines , Bilateral Siralegic Dialogue Joint Statement, WashingtonDC

March 18,2016

', 10 Renato CruzdeCastio, "The Aquino Administiation's2011 , °«^™toShifltoPhihppineDefaKePoUcyfiomiitanal

Secunty to Tenitorial Defense: The hnpact of flie Soutti China Sea

Dispute TheKorean Journal of Defense Analysis 24(1) 2012

J Renato Cniz de Castro, Paper presented at 9* BerUn Conference on Asia Security: "International Dimensions of National m Security Concepts, ChaUenges and Ways Forward" Berlm, June 14-16,2015

12 US Department ofDefense,^ia/>ac,:^cil&„tf„«&<^„., iirareg);, August 2015

13 Peter Chalk, Rebuilding while reforming: Military

modernisation in the Philippines, Austtalian Sttategic PoUcv histitute, June 2014

14 FeUx Chang, Transforming the Philippines 'defense

architecture Foreign Policy Research Instittite, 2012

15 Malcolm Davis, "What does Rodrigo Duterte mean for Soutii Chma Sea tension?" The Strategist, May 12,2016

16 Richard D Fisher, Jr., Defending the Philippines: Military

Modernization and the Challenges Ahead Center for New American Security, May 3,2012

(30)

17 Ronnie Gil L Gavan, "Organized National Engagement at Sea: Optimizing the State's Option for Maritime Security," Digest: A

Forumfor Security arui Defense Issues, 19,1 (First Quarer 2012)

18 Micheal Green et al., Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025:

Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships, Center for Strategic

and International Studies, January 19,2016

19 Tom Holcombe, "Japan's capacity building strategy at worit in the Philippines," The Interpreter, March 22,2016 20 Eric Johnson, "Modernizing the Philippines Navy," United

States Naval Institute Proceedings 140,11, November 2014

21 National Security Coimcil, National Security Policy

2011-2016: Securing the Gains of Democracy (Quezon City: National

Security Council, April 2011)

22 Louie Dane C Merced, "The potentials and limits of Philippines -South Korea maritime defense cooperation," FSI

Insight, Vol.1, No.4, September 2014

23 Tomotaka Shoji, "Japan's Security Cooperation with ASEAN: Pursuit of a Status as a "Relevant" Partner," NIDS Journal of

Defense and Security, December 16, 2015

24 Commodore Jose Renan C Suarez, "The Imperatives of Defending the Philippin and Air-Defense Partnership," presentation at the Air Power Symposium 2012, June 21,2012, SMX Convention Center, Pasay City, Philippines 25 Cac bao mang: China's People Daily, IHS Jane's, USNI News,

Reuters, BBC, GMA Network, Stars and Stripes, Rappler, Philstar, v.v

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