THỊ TRƯỜNG bđs VIỆT NAM NHẠY cảm với CHÍNH SÁCH và QY HOẠCH

NGHIEN COU - TRAO OOI Thi trirdng BOS Viet Nam: "Nhay cam v&i chinh sach va quy hoach" Nam 2010 da troi qua vdi nhiing bien dong, "nong" liic •'lanh" cua thi tru'dng bat dong san (BOS) Nam Tan Mao da den, dy bao thi tru'dng se nhieu kho khan, thach thii'c Nhin thing qua khii'de nim bat tycfng lai de thay trien vong mot thi trydng BOS cua nam 2011 binh on hay "song day"? Nhan dip xuan mo'i 2011, Tap chiKinh te va Dybao da CO cuoc trao doi vdi chuyen gia BOS, nguyen Thii tru'dng Bo Tai nguyen va Moi trydng, GS-TSKH Oang Hiing Vo ve thang tram cua thi trydng BOS nam Canh Dan va trien vong thi tru'dng nam 2011 KICH B.\N THI TRLONG BDS N.\M 2009-2010: KHONG NHIEl BIEN DONG PV: Ndm 2010 hinh nhu kich hdn eiia thi trifdng hid dong sdn iBDSi khdng khde gi nidx so vdi ihi trifdng ndm 2009 tinh trimg thieu vdn ludn ehi phoi thi trifdng vd thi trifdng ludn roi vdo tinh trqng ndng - lanh mang tinh eiie hp vd nhdi thdi thifa dng'' GS-TS.KH Ddng Himg Vd: Dung vay ihi Irudng BDS nam 2010 vd thi tnidng BDS nam 2009 cd nhung diic thii rdt gidng Day la nhung diic diem cua thi Irudng dang rdi thid'u \d'n \ a mang tinh cue bd nhdi thdi Chinh \i thid'u \dii ndn nd rdi nhay cam \di chfnh sach, nhay cam vdi quy hoach Va sy nhay cam tao ndn thi trucmg "luc ndng lanh" Ndi each khdc sy "ndng-lanh" ciia thi trudng mang tinh cyc bd \ a nhat thdi Dac Irung chung cua thi trudng giai doan 2009-2010 la nhu vay Quay trd lai cud'i nam 2008 thi gid ihi trudng BDS da Idn de'n dinh va \ a o cudi quy IV/2008 thi bat ddu roi gia cac ngan hang ndng miic lai sudt Idn trdn % nham thu tidn Nd Ddne thdi cac ngan So 1/2011 32 Kiah t6 va hang cung ddi np cac nha ddu tu ddn ban Dieu dd ddng nghia \ d i \idc cung tien thi trudng bi gidm, ngudn \ d n cho \ a y ttr kdnh tai chfnh \'ao kenh BDS bi ngan Iai Do Nay, tbi Irudng cd ddu hieu "ddng bang" Tlie nhung 'hoi dm" da trd lai vdi thi trudng BDS diing thi bai todn \ e vdn dupc giai quydi mdt budc Tuy nhidn hien nay, ludng \ d n cung chi cd ban chi dii giiip thi trirdng khdng "sap" chir khdng thd giiip thi tnrdng dirng ldn Ngir canh ay giiip thi trirdng BDS nam 2009 dtrng d mirc binh dn gia cd the lang chiit it \ ao thdi didm nay, giam mdi chin \ a o thdi diem kia; tang d dia phirong naN hoac giam d dia phuong khac Tire la thi trudng mang linh nhdi thdi va cyc bd khien khdng binh lang bao Inim loim thi inrdng dti cung cd didm "nhd len" diem "thul xudng" Diiy la hinh anh cua thi Inrdng nam 2009 cdch ddy manh vide "mua ban nhd Tlii trudng BDS nam 2010 cung tiep tuc da dd khdng cd gi mdi me hon Tae dung ciia gdi kfch cau \an cd tac dung nam 2010, song hanh Id c o chd' ban mua-ban nha trdn gidy cung dupe dd>- Idn kha tren !zia\" s:oi \ d n ttr neudi tieu cao Nhd \ a \ iihrriiL; kich h.m Chinh phii tung gdi kich edu vdo quy 11/2009 Cae dy an duoc san se \d'n dd khdng roi \ a o the ket Dac biet NDT nghi Thi tnrdng bat dpng sdn hien dang Unh trgng thieu von NGHIEN CLTU - TRAO DOI nhimg quy lual da Idn lai irong nam 2009 van cdn giii nguydn gia tri thi trudng sang nam 2010 Cudi nam 2010, cac ngdn hang lai nang muc Iai sual cho vay ttr mirc 12% ldn 16%, dieu dd ddng nghia vdi viec cung tidn thi trudng lai bi han che Tuy nhidn, nhd eo che mua ban nha tren gia'y ndn ihj trudng BDS cung khdng bi anh hudng qua nhieu ngudi lieu diing vdn tid'p tuc gdp vd'n giiip thj trudng dirng vung PV: Nhu vdy, yiu to khien thi inrdng BDS sdi ddng hope kem sdi (long ehinh Id yiu id vdn? GS-TS.KH Bang Hiing Vd: Diiy la didu dirt khoat Thi tnrdng BDS ludn ludn phu thudc vdo vd'n khdng cd vd'n thi trudng khdng the hoat ddng Kdnh tai chfnh sang BDS la kdnh mang ifnh quydi dinh sy sdng cdn cua ihi trudng Theo sd lieu thdng ke gia ca ciia 'Ring cue Tlidng kc nam 2010 (linh ddn'thang 11/2010), mirc dp tang gia Irung binh cung chi d mire 1.1% mdi thiing: dd Ihang ddu nam lang gia trung binh khoang 1,6%, thang 4/2010 lang dot bien d mirc 2,5%., thang 6-8/2010 xuiit hidn tinh Irang dimg gia va giam gia vdi mirc giam 0,47% vdo Ihang 7/2010, thdng 9-11/2010 tinh trang tang gia khoang \7c lai xuiit hicn lid lai va tang d mirc 1,7% viio thang 11/2010 Nhu vdy, mirc dp tang - giam gia ciia ihi trudng xay vdi bien dp cao hon va tdn xuai ldn hon so vdi nam 2009 Trong giai doan thang ddu nam gia tang eao, sau dd la thdng trdm limg va giam gia, thdi gian liep theo lang gia d mire dp Ihap hon so vdi giai doan ddu nam Nguydn nhdn Uing, giam gid niiy khdng nam ngoai quy lual eiia Iinh trang thi irutmg nhay cam vi vdn PV: Nhinig lining ddu ndm, ngudn vi'm FDI dd vdo ITnh vife BDS eao ky lue eung lupng von Idn tu ngdu hdng (hdy vdo khien thi truong BDS lifoiig nhu sdi ddng trd Iqi Tuy nhien, san ed Thdng tif 13 (eimg vdi Nghi dinh 71) vdi nhifng dien ehinh d'tdm vimd theo hifdng that ehdt ngudn eung tin dung hiit ddng sdn, thi trifdng lap ti,, ,/(/;.? Idng^ GS-TS.KH Bang Hiing Vd: Nhu da phan tfch d trdn, thi Irudng BDS vi ihieu vd'n ndn rdi nhay cam vdi chfnh sach, nhay cam vdi quy hoach 'Vi the, nd'u cd "sdng" thi eung chi la " s d n g " noi d dia phuong ma thdi Nam qua, thi truong BDS d Ha Ndi "ndng" hon TP HCM vi Ha Ndi cd quy hoach lai, TP HCM thi khdng Ngay thi Irudng Ha Ndi Ihi cung phan chia vting "ndng-lanh" "Sdng" ndi d phfa Tdy Ha Ndi, ddi Ba Vi "phat sdt" quy hoach Tliu dd dupc cdng bd, nhung chd khac lai "lanh" di THI TRUONG BDS VIET NAM CON THIEL TINH CHUVEN NGHIEP PV: Vdy dieu hid cap ldn illicit eiia thi trifdng BDS Viel Nam hien Id gi, thifa dng^ GS-TS.KH Bang Hiing Vd: Thi trudng BDS nudc ta vdn cdn nguydn nhuiig dac trimg ciia mdt ihi trudng BDS ciia mdt nudc dang phat tridn thyc hidn cdng nghidp hda va ciia mot nude cd nen kinh te chuyen doi ttr bao cap sang thi Inrdng Thir nhiit, thdi quen Irir tien tidi kidm viio BDS da trd nen phd bid'n Ngudi cd lien khdng mudn giii vao ngdn hiing, khdng mudn tham gia ddu IU vao san xuai hang hda ma deu eho rdng trtr tien vao BDS Iao ndn kha nang sinh lpi eao nhdi, an loan nhai Chfnh vi vay ma Ihi Irudng BDS cd kha nang hiit vd'n rat eao, ed Ihd gay sdi gia Nhung kha nang sinh lpi giam thi lai dd roi vao tinh Irang khiing hoang vdn ma cd thd' ddn tdi suy Ihoai Tmh Irang cung chi'nh la nguydn nhan gay ndn nan ddu CO BDS vupt gidi ban, lam cho cac "bong bdng" kinh te Idn dan ludn dat thi tnrdng \ a o hoan canh bdi on dinh Thif hai, mpi mat cua thi trudng BDS nudc ta deu thidu ifnh chu\ en nghiep Quan ly kem chu\ en nghiep, doanh nghidp nho be ngudi lieu dting thie'u hieu biet Ttr da_\ tao cdc boat ddng \di cac tinh loan ngan ban, khdng the xdy dung dupc mdl thi Inrdng BDS dn dinh Thif ha, tham nhung khu vyc quan ly nha ddi ludn d mirc kha cao, cdng khai minh bach hoan loan chua dii so \'di ddi hdi ciia thuc Id' phat tridn Theo nhidu nghien ciru, Iinh trang tham nhung, dp cdng khai, minh bach Ihi tnrdng BDS nudc ta vdn diing dudi cdc nudc Singapore, Malaysia, Thai Lan Philippin Indonesia Thirtif, kenh ndi giua ihi irudng tai chinh va thi trudng BDS chua dat duoc hidu qua can thidi chua cd hdnh lang phdp ly hpp ly chua dupc quan ly ddng bo Ngay co che the chap bang BDS de vay lien ciia cac ngdn hang cimg khdng cd tinh khoan cao PV: Cd ngifdi nin "ehinh siieh phdi Id hd da ", theo dug dimli gid, nhirng vifi/ng mde clang eon Idn kd (lia i hinh sdi h diit dai hien Id gi.' GS-TS.KH Bang Himg Vd: Hidn chinh sach ddi dai ciia Viet Nam cung da tao duoc nhirng dieu kien cao nhdi cho nha ddu tu ke ca vd thii tuc hanh chinh, trinh ty thii tyc ttr cd du an tren gidy td ddn giao ddi Song, vdn tdn tai nhung virdng mdc Dau lidn la chinh sach lai chinh ve ddi dai cua nudc la chira hpp ly, ehua phti hpp vdi eo che Ihi trudng Cho dii chiing la da nhin nhdn, linh hdn cua Ihi trudng la tai chfnh BDS cdn phan xay dyng chi Id the: xac ihdi Nhung ciing can thdy rdng tdi chinh BDS cdn nhieu cai khuydi chua ddy dii, nhdi Id ve van dd gid cdn rdi nhidu vudng K i n h t e v a DU b a o So 1/2011 33 NGHIEN CLTU - TRAO DOI mde, dac bidt van de dinh gia Iheo thi trudng, dp dyng gid theo thi trudng Thue BDS cung vdy, chua cd tac dung gi ldn khuyen khfch ddu tu phat tridn chil chua dat den dieu kien khuydn khfch ddu tu phat tridn Didm thii hai theo tdi cdn td hon diem vudng trdn dd la vide thyc thi phap luat dat dai hidn cdn qua kem vd dieu dang budn la, chua cd bidn phap dii manh de tang tinh thyc thi phap luat Nhieu phdp luat de nhung xud'ng de'n dia phuong ihi khdng dupc thyc hidn Nhidu noi cdn "vupl rao" phdp ludt ma vdn khdng bi xir ly 'Vi the, can phdi day manh nhung CO che dd gidm sat, ndng cao tinh thyc Ihi phap luat PV: Ld ngifdi chdp hut nhieii vdn hdn ehinh sdeh quan trpng eua Nhd mfde lien quan din did dai nhieu ndm, he thdiig hdnh lang phdp ly hien nay, dii'u gi khieh dng earn thdy hdi Idng nhdi? GS-TS.KH Bang Himg Vo: Phap kuil ddi dai hidn gid da vupt qua cai khd khan nhdi, dd la xac dinh gia ddi phu thudc vao thi IrutTng Mac dti cho dd'n nay, ehimg la mdi dat trdn Iy thuydi, khang dinh rdng, gia ddi dti hinh Ihanh the nao di nua cung phai dya trdn quan he Ihi Irudng Va quan he mang linh gia tri vd ddc lap so vdi nhung quyei dinh hanh chinh Ttr dd tao nhung dieu kidn de hinh ldn he thd'ng tai chinh ddi dai, lam cho phdp ludt ddi dai dupc ndng ldn mdt budc, tid'p nhiiii nhieu hon vdi phan hdn Tdi khdng ndi phdp ludi ddt dai tnrdc ddy "vd hdn" (cudi) nhung Ihyc sy la nd khdng dn khdng phti hpp vdi thyc lidn THAM NHUNG = D O C Q U Y ^ N + DOC DO.\N - TRACH NHIEM GIAI TRINH - MUC DO MINH BACH PV: Nhif dug dd ndi I in nhung ddi dai eiia Viet Nam dang So 1/2011 34 K i n h te v a Duf b a o Id vein nqn Viiy theo dng, gidi phdp ndo de gidm heft tham nhiing ITnh vife diit dai? GS-TS.KH Bang Hiing Vo: Giai phap thi khdng khd ma van dd la chiing ta cd quydi tam thyc hidn hay khdng The gidi da dua mdi cdng thirc ve tham nhung la "tham nhting = ddc quyen + doc doan Irdch nhidm gidi trinh - muc dp minh bach" Vay mudn chdng tham nhiing, chiing ta phai lam giam sy ddc quyen ciia he thd'ng hanh chfnh Chung ta can cd he tbdng dinh gia dat doc lap so vdi co quan hanh chfnh Gia dai phai dupc dinh gid rdi khach quan, mot hdi ddng day dii nhan lyc, kinh nghidm quydi dinh hoan toan dpc lap vdi he thd'ng hdnh chfnh Ngay ca vide xay dimg quy hoach, thdm dinh quy hoach cung phai dupc ddc lap Co quan hanh chfnh chi cd nhiem vy quydi dinh dya trdn y kidn thdm dinh khach quan Thir niia la giam tfnh ddc doan cua ngudi quyet dinh cd the gay bdng each xd'p dat trinh ly thii tyc cho hpp ly, cd sy tham gia ciia nhieu vi tri cdng tac dd loai bd sy ddc doan Ve trdeh nhidm giai trinh, mdi can bd phai ndm dupc thdng tin ve cdng vide ciia minh vd phdi chiu trach nhidm vd cdng vide dd Tuong ty, minh bach edng cao thi tham nhung se cang ft Ngodi ra, CO quan chire nang phai tang cudng Ihanh tra, kiem tra, lang cudng giam sat ciia cdc td chirc xa hdi PV: Khung gid ddi nidi vifa dupe difa hdn thdo, gid did mdi a HN vd Tp.HCM eung dupe eong ho Nhifng diiu ndy ed tde dCing den thi trifdng BDS ndm 2011.' GS-TS.KH Bang Himg Vd: Xu hudng gia ddt dua thi cd cao hon so vdi trudc, nhung gid cao nhat d miic 81 tridu/m^ thi chua on Bdi, trdn thyc te, tdi cd the chi nhung noi cd gia dat ga'p 10 Idn miic dd nhu: khu vue Nguydn Hud, Ddng Khdi d T P H C M , khu vyc Hang Ngang, Hang Diio tai Ha Npi, Didu chfnh la ,mdi trudng tao Ien tham nhung Va, cdn iham nhung thi cdn ddu co, cdn ddu co thi thi trudng cdn bi "bdp meo" Didu dd ddng nghia vdi \ idc thi Irudng khdng thd phdt tridn dn dinh vd ben x'Uiig THI TRUONG BDS NAM 2011 SE CON TRAM LANG HON NAM 2010 PV: Ong nhin nhdn vi trieii vpng thi trifdng hdi dong sdn nam 201H GS-TS.KH Bdng Hung Vd: Vao thdi didm eudi nam 2010, tinh trang tang gia hang hda lidu dting da xuat hien, kha nang lam phat cd thd xay nd'u khdng cd bidn phap phti hpp dd ngan chan xu hudng tang gia Mdt didu chdc chan Id lai sudt tfn dung phdi cd xu hudng tang len Lai sudi tin dung tang chdc chdn se lam thi Irudng ndi chung phdt tridn chdm Iai Trong ngir canh nay, Ihi trudng BDS nam 2011 vdn chua thoat khdi Iinh trang thidu vdn nhu hidn Ndi nhu vay, cd nghia la thi trudng BDS nha d nam 2011 vdn se didn nguydn nhu kich ban ciia nam 2009 vd nam 2010 nhung cd xu hirdng tram ldng nhidu bon Sy thid'u vd'n se tae ddng manh hon vao thi trudng BDS Nhung giao dich nhd d thudc khu vyc gid re co the se Idng cao nhung giao dich thudc khu vyc nha d gid cao se cham lai, it ddn di PV: Theo dng, nhifng gidi phdp gi ed the giup ihi tnfdng BDS ndm 2011 phdi trien cjn dinh, hen vifng? GS-TS.KH Bang Himg Vd: Can thiei lap mdt mat bdng khdng cd Iham nhung Tao mot thi trudng chuyen nghidp hda linh vuc BDS Nang cao tinh minh bach cting la mdt nhifng gidi phap giiip thi Inrdng phat tridii bdn viing G Phucmg Lan (thuc hien) ... x'Uiig THI TRUONG BDS NAM 2011 SE CON TRAM LANG HON NAM 2010 PV: Ong nhin nhdn vi trieii vpng thi trifdng hdi dong sdn nam 201H GS-TS.KH Bdng Hung Vd: Vao thdi didm eudi nam 2010, tinh trang tang... Ihi trudng BDS nam 2011 vdn chua thoat khdi Iinh trang thidu vdn nhu hidn Ndi nhu vay, cd nghia la thi trudng BDS nha d nam 2011 vdn se didn nguydn nhu kich ban ciia nam 2009 vd nam 2010 nhung...NGHIEN CLTU - TRAO DOI nhimg quy lual da Idn lai irong nam 2009 van cdn giii nguydn gia tri thi trudng sang nam 2010 Cudi nam 2010, cac ngdn hang lai nang muc Iai sual cho vay ttr mirc