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The Chinese people ''s liberation army in 2025

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  • THE CHINESE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY IN 2025

  • CONTENTS

  • FOREWORD

  • OVERVIEW

    • CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION, Roy Kamphausen and R. Lincoln Hines

      • XI JINPING AND THE PLA

      • CHANGING CHINESE APPROACHES TO THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

      • REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENTS

      • OVERVIEW

        • Domestic, External, and Technological Drivers of PLA Modernization.

        • Alternative Futures for the PLA.

        • Implications for the Region, World, and U.S.-China Relations.

      • THE PLA IN 2025

    • CHAPTER 2 - WHITHER CHINA?ALTERNATIVE MILITARY FUTURES, 2020-30, Lonnie D. Henley

      • ASSUMPTIONS

        • Assumptions about the International System and Global Technology in 2025.

      • 2020 DEVELOPMENT GOALS

        • Assumptions about China in 2025.

        • Drivers Part 1: Variables.

        • Drivers Part 2: Constants.

        • Drivers Part 3: Non-Drivers.

      • ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

        • Alternative Future 1: A PLA Focused on Regional Issues.

        • Alternative Future 2: A Global Expeditionary PLA.

        • Alternative Future 3: A Weakened PLA.

      • POSTSCRIPT

      • ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 2

  • DOMESTIC, EXTERNAL, AND TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVERS OF PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY MODERNIZATION

    • CHAPTER 3 - DOMESTIC DRIVERS OF CHINA’S FUTURE MILITARY MODERNIZATION, Joseph Fewsmith

      • SOCIAL ORDER

      • NATIONALISM

      • LEGITIMACY ISSUES

      • SENSE OF CRISIS

      • XI JINPING AND THE EMERGENCE OF A NEW GENERATION

      • DURABILITY

      • CONCLUSION

      • ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 3

    • CHAPTER 4 - PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY TRAJECTORIES: INTERNATIONAL DRIVERS, Eric Heginbotham and Jacob Heim

      • INTRODUCTION

      • PERIPHERAL VS. WIDER REGIONAL CAPABILITIES

        • Military and Operational Distinctions.

        • Mapping Strategic Depth: Taiwan vs. the Rest.

          • Table 4-1. Indicators of Strategic Depth vis-à-vis China.

          • Figure 4-1. PLAAF, USAF, and USMC Air Bases within 1,000-km of Taiwan Strait.

      • IMPACT OF RELATIONS WITH REGIONAL ACTORS

        • Taiwan.

        • Japan.

        • India.

        • Vietnam.

        • Philippines.

          • Table 4-2. Key Military Capabilities of Selected Regional Powers.

      • IMPACT OF U.S. POWER, POSITION, AND MILITARY STRATEGY

        • Table 4-3. Articles in JFJB Discussing U.S. Disputes and Selected PRC Neighbors’ Disputes.

        • Distracted or Weakened U.S. Power.

        • U.S. Military Force Posture and Strategy.

        • Intensified Sino-American Tensions or Clashes.

        • U.S. Welcome for Larger Chinese Global Role.

      • IMPACT OF GLOBAL INTERESTS AND DISTANT CHALLENGES

        • Protecting Overseas Assets and People.

        • Strategic Military Relationships.

          • Figure 4-2. Annual Chinese Arms Exports, 2000-13.

      • INTERNATIONAL VARIABLES AND A WEAKER PLA

        • Military Failure and Misbehavior.

        • Imperial Overstretch.

        • Failure of Sino-Russian Military-Industrial Relationship.

        • External Support for Domestic Chinese Terrorists.

      • SUMMARY AND OUTCOMES: DESCRIBING FUTURE WORLDS

        • Trajectory 1: PLA Optimized for Operations in the Immediate Periphery.

        • Trajectory 2: A PLA Prepared for Regional Power Projection and Warfighting.

        • Trajectory 3: Accelerated Investment in Global Power Projection.

        • Trajectory 4: A Weaker PLA.

      • ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 4

    • CHAPTER 5 - CAPACITY FOR INNOVATION: TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVERS OF CHINA’S FUTURE MILITARY MODERNIZATION, Richard A. Bitzinger and Michael Raska

      • DEFINING CAPACITY FOR INNOVATION

      • CHINA’S SEARCH FOR INNOVATION: HISTORICAL PATH DEPENDENCE

      • “INDIGENOUS INNOVATION” STRATEGY

        • Shenguang Laser Project for Inertial Confinement Fusion.

        • Second Generation Beidou Satellite Navigation System.

        • Hypersonic Vehicle Technology Project.

      • ASSESSING CHINA’S CAPACITY FOR INNOVATION

      • STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL IMPLICATIONS

      • ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 5

  • ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY

    • CHAPTER 6 - THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY IN 2020-30 FOCUSED ON REGIONAL ISSUES, Bernard D. Cole

      • INTRODUCTION

      • THE PLA BUDGET

      • THE REGION

      • REGIONAL ISSUES

        • Military Forces as an Instrument of Chinese Statecraft.

      • PLA PERSONNEL

        • PLA Army.

      • PLA MISSIONS IN 2025

        • Homeland Defense.

        • Nuclear Deterrence.

        • Power Projection.

        • Presence.

        • Maintaining Order at Sea.

        • Nontraditional Missions.

        • NEO.

        • Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR).

        • Counterpiracy.

        • Counterterrorism.

        • Maintaining Civil Order.

        • Taiwan.

        • Three Seas.

      • THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY

        • Organization.

        • PLAAF and Naval Aviation.

        • PLAN.

        • The Second Artillery.

        • Systems Improvements.

        • Strategy.

      • CONCLUSION

        • The Dream.

      • ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 6

    • CHAPTER 7 - A GLOBAL EXPEDITIONARY PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY: 2025-30, Oriana Skylar Mastro

      • INTRODUCTION

      • FUTURE NATURE AND DIRECTION OF CHINESE MILITARY MODERNIZATION

      • DOCTRINE, STRATEGIC GUIDELINES, AND OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS

      • FORCE POSTURE

        • Air.

        • Sea.

        • Ground.

      • ORGANIZATION, TRAINING, AND LOGISTICS

      • CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

        • Propensity to Use Force.

        • Stability and Balance of Power.

      • ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 7

    • CHAPTER 8 - CHINA’S MILITARY FORCE POSTURE UNDER CONDITIONS OF A WEAKENED PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY: ALTERNATIVE MILITARY FUTURES, 2020-30, Daniel Gearin and Erin Richter

      • WHAT IS A WEAK PLA?

      • PATHS TO A WEAKENED PLA

        • Primary Driver.

        • China’s Military Missions.

        • The PLA Army.

        • The PLA Navy.

        • The PLA Air Force.

        • The Second Artillery Force.

      • IMPLICATIONS

      • ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 8

  • IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION, WORLD, AND U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS

    • CHAPTER 9 - REGIONAL DYNAMICS IN RESPONSE TO ALTERNATIVE PLA DEVELOPMENT VECTORS, Michael McDevitt

      • INTRODUCTION—CHINA’S STRATEGIC APPROACH TO ITS NEIGHBORHOOD

      • FRAMING THE ANALYTIC APPROACH

      • THE NEAR NEIGHBORHOOD RESPONSE OF CHINA’S GROWING POWER—NORTHEAST ASIA

        • South Korea.

        • Japan.

        • A Japan-Inspired Multilateral Response?

        • Taiwan.

      • THE FAR NEIGHBORHOOD RESPONSE TO CHINA’S GROWING POWER—SOUTHEAST ASIA

        • Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Multilateralism.

        • The Philippines.

        • Vietnam.

      • INDIAN OCEAN STATES RESPONSES—AUSTRALIA AND INDIA

        • Australia.

        • India.

        • What about an Indo-Pacific Multilateral Response to a PLA Expeditionary Capability?

      • CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

      • ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 9

    • CHAPTER 10 - IMPLICATIONS: CHINA IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM, Phillip C. Saunders

      • THE CURRENT AND FUTURE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

        • Today’s International System.

      • CHINA’S CALCULUS OF CHANGE

      • THREE ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

        • Alternative Future 1: A PLA Focused on Regional Issues.

        • Alternative Future 2: A Global Expeditionary PLA.

        • Alternative Future 3: A Weakened PLA.

      • CONCLUSION

      • ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 10

  • CHAPTER 11 - IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S.-CHINA STRATEGIC DYNAMICS, Robert Sutter

    • INTRODUCTION

    • FRAGILE BUT ENDURING STRATEGIC EQUILIBRIUM

    • CHINA’S TOUGHER STANCE IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC

    • CONSTRAINTS ON CHINESE ASSERTIVENESS

      • Domestic Preoccupations.

      • Strong Interdependence.

      • China’s Insecurity in the Asia-Pacific.

    • A CLOSER LOOK AT CHINA’S CURRENT CHALLENGE TO THE UNITED STATES

    • IMPLICATIONS OF THE SCENARIOS FOR U.S.-CHINESE RELATIONS

      • Alternative Future 1: A PLA Focused on Regional Issues.

      • Alternative Future 2: A Global Expeditionary PLA.

      • Alternative Future 3: A Weakened PLA.

    • ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 11

  • ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS

Nội dung

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S.Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and U.S. Army War College (USAWC) Press publications enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose classified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepresent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the interest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited.

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