0.622767 0.619294 0.745737 Variance Decomposition of LR: Period 10 S.E DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CR EDIT) DLOG(EX T) 0.802149 1.697383 2.313743 2.745997 2.970589 3.083518 3.167003 3.238923 3.306619 3.347141 1.648286 12.98533 12.47068 9.042681 8.600557 10.03792 11.00673 11.04861 10.80977 10.79139 98.35171 69.21990 54.25314 47.21513 45.30042 44.75123 44.76144 44.95819 44.57981 44.09511 0.000000 3.187581 11.20625 20.39309 22.28461 21.21213 20.29396 20.13011 20.62543 20.95015 0.000000 0.066508 0.131495 0.093790 1.303155 2.587458 3.145101 3.026997 2.952511 2.942301 DLOG(CPI) DLOG(MAN) 0.000000 13.09784 21.01425 22.58849 21.93751 20.87804 20.26837 20.33129 20.54474 20.74073 0.000000 1.442840 0.924183 0.666816 0.573749 0.533225 0.524399 0.504800 0.487741 0.480318 - 70 - Variance Decomposition of DLOG(CREDIT): Period 10 S.E DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CR EDIT) DLOG(EX T) 0.019991 0.025975 0.031503 0.033958 0.034711 0.035265 0.036097 0.036577 0.037281 0.037745 6.656600 34.23149 35.01392 34.80957 34.11407 33.04979 31.99215 31.81542 30.71163 30.01017 0.457314 4.249243 11.84437 13.84967 13.25660 13.03617 13.14910 13.53596 13.85771 13.57211 92.88609 60.11760 43.39593 39.17222 37.92556 37.06215 35.67586 35.62302 37.08555 37.97742 0.000000 0.040624 7.771578 6.803320 8.588049 8.923741 11.09826 10.93928 10.53514 10.81356 DLOG(CPI) DLOG(MAN) 0.000000 0.536666 1.236595 2.272304 3.154431 5.007531 5.296922 5.357110 5.159234 5.039789 0.000000 0.824368 0.737611 3.092920 2.961291 2.920609 2.787706 2.729220 2.650741 2.586943 Variance Decomposition of DLOG(EXT): Period 10 S.E DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CR EDIT) DLOG(EX T) 0.014514 0.016462 0.017711 0.018335 0.019147 0.019555 0.019623 0.019762 0.020022 0.020209 2.212305 3.387615 2.926590 3.860449 7.381240 7.730367 7.944466 7.999450 8.425054 9.489877 2.481737 2.513403 6.299777 6.865936 6.839554 7.153408 7.123993 7.032686 6.973514 7.111148 2.578573 2.011321 5.348566 8.913813 8.735087 8.377860 8.361897 9.080493 10.23282 10.26154 92.72739 85.00591 79.04808 73.82669 70.30982 68.77825 68.35620 67.44412 65.71784 64.51018 DLOG(CPI) DLOG(MAN) 0.000000 6.969512 6.075167 6.235196 6.410964 7.323056 7.382559 7.612620 7.836633 7.772998 0.000000 0.112237 0.301821 0.297912 0.323330 0.637058 0.830883 0.830627 0.814146 0.854260 Variance Decomposition of DLOG(CPI): Period S.E DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CR EDIT) DLOG(EX T) 0.010574 0.016163 0.019128 0.021196 19.93031 17.49353 12.49124 16.23461 11.45913 11.46398 13.26295 14.75299 7.580895 14.42981 23.12434 21.62346 1.662441 0.995710 1.980654 2.575168 DLOG(CPI) DLOG(MAN) 59.36723 55.48524 48.88123 44.46901 0.000000 0.131730 0.259585 0.344771 - 71 - 10 0.022411 0.023053 0.023364 0.023716 0.023969 0.024030 22.18172 24.97870 24.64740 23.96149 23.50440 23.41180 13.65888 13.59377 14.60216 14.96253 14.76780 14.69341 19.37940 18.68042 18.25110 17.83834 17.61819 17.57164 4.072594 4.068809 4.378967 5.388583 6.346485 6.429190 40.38332 38.26058 37.70188 37.38059 37.22681 37.34944 0.324083 0.417714 0.418485 0.468465 0.536321 0.544519 Variance Decomposition of DLOG(MAN): Period 10 S.E DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CR EDIT) DLOG(EX T) 0.042275 0.046241 0.047230 0.047641 0.049506 0.049698 0.049844 0.050018 0.050231 0.050302 0.225691 3.699674 3.777249 3.713268 4.706291 4.982634 4.955089 5.026099 4.984172 4.993614 14.25670 12.96397 12.65340 12.44277 11.94761 11.85550 11.79042 11.71100 11.69845 11.66577 2.862459 2.785279 2.804393 2.989622 3.301900 3.344394 3.501653 3.480808 3.834433 3.960794 0.376036 0.343276 0.736514 1.260467 1.201819 1.416125 1.430565 1.443790 1.506914 1.503896 DLOG(CPI) DLOG(MAN) 0.889589 0.764951 0.939060 1.107663 1.142569 1.299542 1.324582 1.331490 1.388731 1.399529 81.38952 79.44285 79.08938 78.48621 77.69981 77.10180 76.99769 77.00681 76.58730 76.47640 Cholesky Ordering: DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CREDIT) DLOG(EXT) DLOG(CPI) DLOG(MAN) - 72 - 3.2.3 Ngành dịch vụ: mơ hình VAR: M2, LR, CREDIT, EXT, CPI, SER Variance Decomposition of DLOG(M2): Period S.E DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CR EDIT) DLOG(E XT) 10 0.018407 0.024001 0.025733 0.027794 0.029229 0.030796 0.031174 0.031776 0.032245 0.032559 100.0000 93.36784 84.05012 72.06003 66.06731 60.17693 59.10094 57.69955 56.39546 55.50520 0.000000 0.009201 0.011106 0.694933 0.688925 1.811957 2.158114 2.079821 2.566243 3.069647 0.000000 0.825827 3.474791 4.356442 3.939581 3.734528 3.960931 5.800521 7.422095 7.644024 0.000000 4.336130 5.984389 17.27788 19.12891 21.02967 20.71956 19.94354 19.47787 19.49745 DLOG(CPI) DLOG(SER) 0.000000 0.942489 0.831619 0.764728 3.629036 5.551601 6.539253 6.433869 6.248743 6.131325 0.000000 0.518512 5.647974 4.845985 6.546244 7.695314 7.521209 8.042699 7.889589 8.152355 Variance Decomposition of LR: Period S.E DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CR EDIT) DLOG(E XT) 10 0.767960 1.576704 2.186197 2.621005 2.862291 3.013435 3.130298 3.207656 3.273639 3.319789 0.031944 8.723315 8.777838 6.328071 5.757554 6.887870 8.171315 8.703314 8.719794 8.713718 99.96806 70.28154 54.16321 48.03692 46.92325 46.42096 46.50875 46.91890 46.26500 45.34600 0.000000 4.304062 14.52990 25.07141 26.60518 24.59787 22.98188 22.69397 23.57411 24.51661 0.000000 0.003950 0.482671 0.404411 1.473730 3.409558 4.414961 4.318946 4.153015 4.067886 DLOG(CPI) DLOG(SER) 0.000000 14.44954 18.93796 17.94415 16.50979 14.96397 13.87514 13.46880 13.53592 13.70632 0.000000 2.237593 3.108417 2.215036 2.730502 3.719779 4.047953 3.896067 3.752164 3.649467 Variance Decomposition of DLOG(CREDIT): Period S.E DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CR EDIT) DLOG(E XT) 0.020577 6.986191 1.445086 91.56872 0.000000 DLOG(CPI) DLOG(SER) 0.000000 0.000000 - 73 - 10 0.025294 0.030324 0.032487 0.033322 0.034022 0.035201 0.035763 0.036582 0.037239 29.92041 28.36115 28.27136 27.96487 26.83617 25.39976 24.85254 23.75307 22.93614 3.480309 9.176650 10.00060 9.520446 9.557265 10.05352 10.72511 11.18501 10.83663 65.78155 49.07155 44.96387 43.43572 41.87744 39.45015 38.96532 40.12875 41.46880 0.036596 10.15366 9.119486 10.27404 10.71941 13.74301 13.59458 13.00281 13.12721 0.206703 0.897038 1.411825 2.782916 4.778594 5.278891 5.912489 5.761899 5.585540 0.574430 2.339953 6.232854 6.022011 6.231122 6.074664 5.949956 6.168463 6.045675 Variance Decomposition of DLOG(EXT): Period S.E DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CR EDIT) 10 0.014176 0.016355 0.017502 0.018257 0.019172 0.019628 0.019730 0.019873 0.020121 0.020286 1.444395 2.194444 2.009823 2.720942 5.673311 5.763129 6.097831 6.298848 6.669478 7.320375 1.818460 2.118530 4.730565 5.737808 5.596098 5.622402 5.564704 5.493596 5.483778 5.650254 2.863569 2.159009 5.468728 10.05500 9.562174 9.132005 9.075248 9.848301 11.11074 11.24501 DLOG(E XT) 93.87358 83.82506 79.11889 72.76888 69.77842 68.16775 67.76566 66.84030 65.20822 64.15247 DLOG(CPI) DLOG(SER) 0.000000 9.700060 8.574532 8.564236 9.016266 9.771717 9.735254 9.704559 9.750753 9.742767 0.000000 0.002893 0.097465 0.153132 0.373731 1.543000 1.761306 1.814398 1.777031 1.889127 Variance Decomposition of DLOG(CPI): Period S.E DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CR EDIT) DLOG(E XT) 10 0.010501 0.015979 0.018963 0.020778 0.021984 0.022833 0.023141 0.023441 0.023768 0.023873 19.97848 18.29316 12.98912 15.37702 19.80112 22.26514 22.33433 21.77042 21.19115 21.03325 14.50228 14.41743 17.69369 20.20424 19.09910 18.85880 19.72379 19.60913 19.07421 18.94844 7.620291 15.42388 25.00737 23.53709 21.06604 19.89650 19.40458 19.11819 18.99045 18.83095 2.361905 1.041341 2.855900 3.190811 4.958241 5.243671 5.287106 6.118722 7.161125 7.279818 DLOG(CPI) DLOG(SER) 55.53705 50.74466 41.26803 36.77431 33.05398 30.64136 30.09305 30.09373 30.03708 30.39160 0.000000 0.079529 0.185892 0.916536 2.021520 3.094521 3.157148 3.289807 3.545983 3.515935 - 74 - Variance Decomposition of DLOG(SER): Period S.E DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CR EDIT) DLOG(E XT) 10 0.028892 0.030548 0.034051 0.035549 0.036567 0.037387 0.037544 0.037802 0.038026 0.038034 3.664341 9.650869 8.716117 8.011525 8.920354 10.97993 10.96000 11.03445 11.05961 11.06579 1.751354 2.080771 2.610455 4.761066 5.045075 5.229872 5.187614 5.123301 5.160444 5.160328 0.446277 1.075496 8.327075 7.771610 7.700884 7.919401 7.857621 8.626662 8.958787 8.959833 0.201064 0.680131 2.212482 3.282919 3.923843 3.761895 3.925956 3.961769 4.326173 4.330744 DLOG(CPI) DLOG(SER) 2.827756 4.148272 6.755994 6.462175 8.450792 8.555566 8.783719 8.799736 8.727260 8.738741 91.10921 82.36446 71.37788 69.71071 65.95905 63.55333 63.28509 62.45408 61.76773 61.74457 Cholesky Ordering: DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CREDIT) DLOG(EXT) DLOG(CPI) DLOG(SER) ... 76.47640 Cholesky Ordering: DLOG(M2) LR DLOG(CREDIT) DLOG(EXT) DLOG(CPI) DLOG(MAN) - 72 - 3.2.3 Ngành dịch vụ: mơ hình VAR: M2, LR, CREDIT, EXT, CPI, SER Variance Decomposition of DLOG(M2): Period