Slide về khủng hoảng tài chính - "Crisis on Wall Street"

Slide về khủng hoảng tài chính - "Crisis on Wall Street"

Crisis on Wall Street Alan Blinder Markus Brunnermeier Harrison Hong Paul Krugman Hyun Song Shin Panel Discussion sponsored by Department of Economics Total Assets [1952 =1] 900 800 Non-Financial Corporate 700 600 Household 500 400 Commercial Banks 300 Broker Dealer 200 100 2006 1997 1988 1979 1970 1961 1952 Total Assets [1952 =1] 1000 Non-Financial Corporate 100 Household Commercial Banks 10 Broker Dealer 2006 1997 1988 1979 1970 1961 1952 5.0 3.0 1980Q1 1981Q1 1982Q1 1983Q1 1984Q1 1985Q1 1986Q1 1987Q1 1988Q1 1989Q1 1990Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 Trillion Dollars US Home Mortgage Holdings Agency and GSE mortgage pools 4.5 4.0 Commercial banks 3.5 ABS issuers Savings institutions 2.5 2.0 GSEs 1.5 Credit unions 1.0 0.5 0.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 Trillion Dollars US Home Mortgage Holdings Market‐based 4.0 Bank‐based 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2007Q1 2006Q1 2005Q1 2004Q1 2003Q1 2002Q1 2001Q1 2000Q1 1999Q1 1998Q1 1997Q1 1996Q1 1995Q1 1994Q1 1993Q1 1992Q1 1991Q1 1990Q1 1989Q1 1988Q1 1987Q1 1986Q1 1985Q1 1984Q1 1983Q1 1982Q1 1981Q1 1980Q1 Lehman Balance Sheet (2007) Other 4% Cash 1% Receivables Long-term debt 18% Equity 3% Short term debt 8% 6% Short position 22% Long position 45% Payables 12% Collateralized lending 44% Collateralized borrowing 37% Assets Liabilities Bear Stearns Balance Sheet Other Cash 5% Receivables 6% 14% Equity 3% Other Short term debt 2% Long-term debt 11% 17% Short position 11% Long position 43% Payables 22% Collateralized lending 32% Assets Collateralized borrowing 34% Liabilities Total Assets and Leverage 2007-3 1998-3 2007-4 2007-3 1998-3 2007-4 Total Asset Growth -.1 Total Asset Growth -.1 2007-3 1998-3 1998-4 2007-4 1998-4 -.1 Leverage Growth -.2 Total Asset Growth -.05 05 2007-4 2007-3 1998-4 -.1 -.2 -.1 Leverage Growth -.1 Leverage Growth Citigroup Markets 98-04 2007-3 2007-4 1998-4 1998-3 -.3 1998-3 -.2 Goldman Sachs Total Asset Growth Bear Sterns -.1 Leverage Growth Total Asset Growth -.2 -.1 -.2 -.2 1998-4 -.2 Total Asset Growth -.2 -.1 Morgan Stanley Merrill Lynch Lehman Brothers -.15 -.1 -.05 05 Leverage Growth -.2 -.1 Leverage Growth Leverage and Total Assets Growth Total Assets (log change) -.1 Asset weighted, 1992Q3-2008Q1, Source: SEC 2008-1 2007-3 2007-4 -.2 1998-4 -.2 -.1 Leverage (log change) Bear Stearns Liquidity Pool (US$ billions) (Source: SEC) 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 13-Mar 12-Mar 11-Mar 10-Mar 9-Mar 8-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 4-Mar 3-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 29-Feb 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 25-Feb 24-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb Latin America Europe Europe Middle East South Asia Middle East Caribbean Philippines American Life Insurance Company UNITED GUARANTY CORPORATION Africa AIU Accident & Health Division FOREIGN LIFE INSURANCE & RETIREMENT SERVICES AIG Star Life Insurance Hong Kong Taiwan India Macau Q2 2008 Singapore New Zealand South Korea DOMESTIC LIFE INSURANCE & RETIREMENT SERVICES AIG American General AIG Annuity Insurance Company AIG SunAmerica Retirement Markets Consumer Finance Group -$5.9bn Operating loss AIG Retirement Thailand AIG Financial Products (Capital Markets Operation) FINANCIAL SERVICES Vietnam Australia International Lease Finance Corporation AIG Executive Liability Indonesia Malaysia Lexington Insurance Company Q2 2008 Guam AIG is a huge multinational insurer, but it is much more than that A glance at the group’s structure shows why Should it follow Lehman into administration, it would create shockaves across global financial markets Canada -$2.4bn Operating loss Brunei American International Assurance DOMESTIC BROKERAGE GROUP LIFE INSURANCE & RETIREMENT SERVICES Nan Shan Life Insurance Company China GENERAL INSURANCE Spiralling subsidiaries HSB Group (Parent company of The Boiler Inspection & Insurance) AIG Environmental -$827m Operating loss FOREIGN GENERAL INSURANCE GROUP Japan Japan DOMESTIC PERSONAL LINES American International Underwriters The Philippine American Life & General Insurance Company Latin America Asia and the Pacific Q2 2008 AIG Private Bank AIG SunAmerican Asset Management Corporation ASSET MANAGEMENT -$314m Operating loss Q2 2008 American General Finance AIG Advisor Group AIG Investments Imperial A.I Credit Companies Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands Including 45 states in US Note: Not all subsidiaries are represented FT Graphic Markus Brunnermeier What happened last week? Harrison Hong How did we get here? Paul Krugman What should be done? Alan Blinder Where we go from here? ... 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 13-Mar 12-Mar 11-Mar 10-Mar 9-Mar 8-Mar 7-Mar 6-Mar 5-Mar 4-Mar 3-Mar 2-Mar 1-Mar 29-Feb 28-Feb 27-Feb 26-Feb 25-Feb 24-Feb 23-Feb 22-Feb Latin America Europe Europe... 200 7-4 200 7-3 199 8-3 200 7-4 Total Asset Growth -. 1 Total Asset Growth -. 1 200 7-3 199 8-3 199 8-4 200 7-4 199 8-4 -. 1 Leverage Growth -. 2 Total Asset Growth -. 05 05 200 7-4 200 7-3 199 8-4 -. 1 -. 2 -. 1... Growth -. 1 Leverage Growth Citigroup Markets 9 8-0 4 200 7-3 200 7-4 199 8-4 199 8-3 -. 3 199 8-3 -. 2 Goldman Sachs Total Asset Growth Bear Sterns -. 1 Leverage Growth Total Asset Growth -. 2 -. 1 -. 2 -. 2