After studying this chapter, you should be able to: Describe why an understanding of basic approaches to ethical decision making and corporate social responsibility is important, explain the basic approaches to ethical decision making, identify the different implications of each approach in real-life situations,...
Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter Framing and the Reversal of Preferences Copyright 2013 John Wiley & Sons The Asian Disease Problem Imagine that the United States is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease that is expected to kill 600 people Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows Program A: If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved Big Positive Gamble You can (a) receive $10 million for sure (expected value = $10 million) or (b) flip a coin and receive $22 million for heads but nothing for tails (expected value = $11 million) An expected-value decision rule would require you to pick (b) What would you do? Lawsuit You are being sued for $500,000 and estimate that you have a 50 percent chance of losing the case in court (expected value = –$250,000) However, the other side is willing to accept an out-of-court settlement of $240,000 (expected value = –$240,000) An expected-value decision rule would lead you to settle out of court Ignoring attorney’s fees, court costs, aggravation, and so on, would you (a) fight Asian Disease Problem Imagine that the United States is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease that is expected to kill 600 people Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed Assume that the scien-tific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows Program C: If Program C is adopted, 400 people will die Sell or Hold? You were given 100 shares of stock in XYZ Corporation two years ago, when the value of the stock was $20 per share Unfortunately, the stock has dropped to $10 per share during the two years that you have held the asset The corporation is currently drilling for oil in an area that may turn out to be a big “hit.” On the other hand, they may find nothing Geological analysis suggests that if they hit, the stock is Preference Reversals • Sub-optimal decision portfolios • “Pseudocertainty” and our judgments • Insurance • Evaluations of transactions • Ownership and framing • Mental accounting • Bonuses versus rebates • Separate versus joint evaluation Framing and the Irrationality of the Sum of Our Choices Imagine that you face the following pair of concurrent decisions First, examine both decisions, and then indicate the options you prefer Decision A Choose between: a a sure gain of $240 b a 25 percent chance to gain $1,000 and a What Do People Choose? • Decision A • Decision B Framing and the Irrationality of the Sum of Our Choices Choose between: e a 25 percent chance to win $240 and a 75 percent chance to lose $760 f a 25 percent chance to win $250 and a 75 percent chance to lose $750 Perceptions of Certainty Which of the following options you prefer? a a sure win of $30 b an 80 percent chance to win $45 Consider the following two-stage game In the first stage, there is a 75 percent chance to end the game without winning anything and a 25 percent chance to move into the second stage If you reach the second stage you have a choice between: c a sure win of $30 d an 80 percent chance to win $45 Which of the following options you prefer? e a 25 percent chance to win $30 f a 20 percent chance to win $45 Perceptions of Certainty Which of the following options you prefer? a a sure win of $30 (78%) b an 80 percent chance to win $45 (22%) Consider the following two-stage game In the first stage, there is a 75 percent chance to end the game without winning anything and a 25 percent chance to move into the second stage If you reach the second stage you have a choice between: c a sure win of $30 (74%) d an 80 percent chance to win $45 (26%) Which of the following options you prefer? e a 25 percent chance to win $30 (42%) f a 20 percent chance to win $45 (58%) Framing and the Overselling of Insurance • Insurance: A negative expected value • “Insurance premium” versus “sure loss” • Profits of insurance companies What’s it Worth to You? You are lying on the beach on a hot day All you have to drink is ice water For the last hour you have been thinking about how much you would enjoy a nice cold bottle of your favorite brand of beer A companion gets up to go make a phone call and offers to bring back a beer from the only nearby place where beer is sold (a fancy resort hotel) [a small, rundown grocery store] He says that the beer might be expensive and What’s it Worth to You? Imagine that you are about to purchase a high-tech mouse for $50 The computer salesperson informs you that the mouse you wish to buy is on sale at the store’s other branch, located a 20-minute drive Imagine that you are about to purchase a laptop computer for $2,000 The computer salesperson informs you that this computer is on sale at the store’s other branch, located a 20- The Value We Place on What We Own • Real estate • Used car sales • Minimum bids in auctions • Mugs The Endowment Effect It is 1998, and Michael Jordan and the Bulls are about to play their final championship game You would very much like to attend The game is sold out, and you won’t have another It is 1998, and Michael Jordan and the Bulls are about to play their final championship game You have a ticket to the game and would very much like to attend The game is sold out, and you What People Say they Would Do Mental Accounting Suppose that you bought a case of a good 1982 Bordeaux in the futures market for $20 a bottle The wine now sells at auction for about $75 per bottle You have decided to drink a bottle Which of the following best captures your sense of the cost of your drinking this bottle? a $0 Mental Accounting Mental Accounting You receive a letter from the IRS saying that you made a minor arithmetic mistake in your tax return and must send them $100 You receive a similar letter the same day from your state tax You receive a letter from the IRS saying that you made a minor arith-metic mistake in your tax return and must send them $200 There are no other repercussions from the mistake Rebate/Bonus Framing • Federal stimulus spending • Bonuses versus profit sharing Joint Versus Separate Preference Reversals • Salary Package A • Salary Package B $27,000 Year $23,000 Year $26,000 Year $24,000 Year $25,000 Year $25,000 Year $24,000 Year $26,000 Year Joint Versus Separate Preference Reversals • Separate evaluation promotes emotional responses • Polling practices • “Want/should” explanation • “Evaluability” explanation Conclusion • • Generalizability of framing effects – Taxi driver hours – Golfer putting patterns – Stock market decisions Improving your decisions – Identify your reference point – Consider alternative reference points ... Irrationality of the Sum of Our Choices Imagine that you face the following pair of concurrent decisions First, examine both decisions, and then indicate the options you prefer Decision A Choose... “Pseudocertainty” and our judgments • Insurance • Evaluations of transactions • Ownership and framing • Mental accounting • Bonuses versus rebates • Separate versus joint evaluation Framing and the Irrationality... Perceptions of Certainty Which of the following options you prefer? a a sure win of $30 b an 80 percent chance to win $45 Consider the following two-stage game In the first stage, there is a 75