After studying this chapter, you should be able to: Define strategy; define planning and explain its purpose; differentiate between strategic, operational, and tactical plans; explain the planning process.
Judgment in Managerial Decision Making 8e Chapter Common Investment Mistakes Copyright 2013 John Wiley & Sons Active Fund Management • 25% of funds outperform market • Past performance poorly predicts future • Returns limited by high fees • Hedge funds The Psychology of Poor Investment Decisions • Overconfidence • Optimism • Denying random events • Anchoring, status quo, and procrastination • Selling winners and keeping losers Overconfidence Produces Excessive Trading • Frequent transactions increase costs • Transactions are becoming more frequent • Active investors underperform the market • Men trade more than women Optimism about Investment Decisions • • Optimistic predictions of fund performance Optimistic recollections of past performance Denying that Random Events are Random • Underweighting randomness • Neglecting regression to the mean • Limited evidence of consistent performance – Momentum effect – Performance reversals in outliers Anchoring, the Status Quo, and Procrastination • Retirement plans – Failing to change risk allocations – Arbitrary options influence risk allocations • Sticking to the status quo • Failure to “opt-in” Prospect Theory, Selling Winners, and Keeping Losers • Selling winners • Keeping losers • Impact on returns Active Trading • The rise of online trading • Initial success stories • Underperforming the market • Considering other traders Action Steps • Determine your investment goals – Save enough for retirement – Embrace risk now – Reduce risk later – Invest in annuities • Difficulty predicting the stock market • Putting this information to use – Avoid unnecessary fees ... Failure to “opt -in Prospect Theory, Selling Winners, and Keeping Losers • Selling winners • Keeping losers • Impact on returns Active Trading • The rise of online trading • Initial success stories... The Psychology of Poor Investment Decisions • Overconfidence • Optimism • Denying random events • Anchoring, status quo, and procrastination • Selling winners and keeping losers Overconfidence... Trading • Frequent transactions increase costs • Transactions are becoming more frequent • Active investors underperform the market • Men trade more than women Optimism about Investment Decisions