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Bài viết nghiên cứu quan hệ kinh tế Mỹ - Nhật Bản 1931-1941 thông qua các số liệu về nhập khẩu gang của Nhật Bản; xuất khẩu dầu mỏ từ Mỹ sang Nhật Bản trong các năm 1936 và 1937; xuất khẩu máy móc của Mỹ năm 1937…
^' QIJAN HE HINH TE MY-l^IHAT BAN 1931-1941 TRAN T H I £ N THANH* G iai doan 1931-1941 chflng kidn sfl thay ddi tinh chfi't quan hf My-Nhfit Ban tfl eanh tranh sang chien tranh Trong sud't nhiing nfim 1930, mfic dfl cflng cd tham vgng ddi vdi Viin DdngThfii Binh Dfldng, nhflng My vfi Nhfit Ban theo dudi nhiing mye tieu cy t h l khdng gid'ng nhau, thfim chi trfii ngfldc Trong Nhfit Ban mud'n Washington chfi'p nhfin ti If ngang bang vl lflc Mgng hai quan, md rgng anh hfldng d Trung Qud'c vfi Ddng Nam A, ddng thdi ngan can sfl iing bd cfla My ddi vdi eac cfldng qud'c cbau Au, thi My lai mud'n tri flu the vd hai qufin vdi Nhfit Ban, thflc hifn chinh sach "md cfla" d Trung Qud'c vfi ngfin chfin qua trinh banh trfldng cua Nhfit bfing ehinh saeh "khdng tham chidn" Vifc thye hifn nhiing mye tieu trai ngflge dd da nudi dfldng tinh trang xung dot quan hf My - Nhfit Ban vfi cudl cflng kdt thflc bfing mdt eudc chidn tranh Song, tfnh chfi't ddi diu vfi xung dot ngfiy cfing gia tfing quan hf an nmh-cMnb trj My-Nhfit Ban tM quan hf kinh te lai cbo chflng ta thfi'y mdt sic thfii khac mdi quan hf gifla hai qudc gia ddi difn vdi qua dai dfldng rdng nhfi't the gidi nfiy Vifc pban tfch cac sd lifu kinh te se cho chflng ta thfi'y ro dilu dd (Xem bang 1) Bang eho thfi'y, gifi trj xufi't-nhfip khiu tfl nfim 1931-1940 gifla My vfi chau A xep thfl chi sau chau Au vfi Bic My Trong dd, can can thfldng mai My - Nhfit chiem tdi khoang 45% gia tri xufi't khiu vfi 21,9% gifi trj nhfip khau vdi tofin chau A Gia tri thfldng mai vdi Nhfit Ban cung gfi'p tren lin vl xufi't k h i u vfi tren l i n vl nhfip khiu so vdi Trung Qudc Ti If nfiy cflng ldn hdn nhidu l i n so vdi eac qud'c gia, viing dfi't khae d chau A Ngofii ra, gifi tri thfldng mai qua eanh va chuyen tfiu eua Nhfit Ban qua Ifinh thd My tfl 1933-1940 cung chidm phin ldn nhfi't so vdi tofin chau A (Bang 2) Cac so' Uf u tren eho thfi'y, tinh trang xung dot ngfiy cfing gia tfing quan hf an ninh-cMnh trj gifla My vfi Nhfit Ban, quan hf thfldng mai song phfldng vfin tiep tyc dflge tri, thfim ehi gia tfing nhidu nfim dfic bift lfi tfl 1931-1937, hofic giam khdng dfing ke tfl 1938-1940 *TS Khoa Ljch sfl - Trfldng Dai hgc KHXH&NV - DHQG HN 35 Quan h^ hinh te my-Rhat Bin Bang 1: Xuat (gdm ca tai xuat) • nhap khau hang hoa giiifa My (gdm cac bang luc dia My, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico va tir 1-1-1935 den 31-12-1939 la Virgin Island) v6i cac chau luc, qudc gia tieu bieu tU 1931 Dcfn vi: 1.000 USD C h a u l^c/ Xua't k h a u (gom ca t a i xua't)/nh|lp khau Quo'c gia tieu bieu 1931-1936 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 2.025.196/ 2.456.978/ 3.349.167/ 3.094.440/ 3.177.176/ 4.021.146/ 1.713.102 2.422.592 3.083.668 1.960.428 2.318.081 2.626.378 462.806/ 616.711/ 840.126/ 739.994/ 802.197/ 1.085.888/ 413.421 618.580 890.476 490.228 580.629 693.408 141.074/ 204.222/ 318.354/ 299.714/ 329.127/ 435/584/ 244.160 291.505 422.026 262.613 317.267 395.105 960.158/ 1.042.804/ 1.359.610/ 1.352.943/ 1.289.753/ 1.645.428/ 518.313 717.544 843.329 567.226 617.166 390.161 Chau A 349.911/ 398.885/ 579.971/ 516.777/ 561.572/ 619.210/ 490.909 707.728 967.261 589.503 699.582 980.869 N h p Ban 169.567/ 204.348/ 288.558/ 239.662/ 232.184/ 227.220/ 148.186 171.744 204.201 126.762 161.212 158.376 62.571/ 46.819/ 49.703/ 34.719/ 55.614/ 47.775 74.232 103.622 47.189 61.831 77.968/ 93.002 Trung binh m o i nfim Tong Bic My Nam My Chau Au Trung Quoc Philippines 47.680/ 60.350/ 85.032/ 86.464/ 99.939/ 93.315/ 89.174 101.679 126.061 94.244 91.927 89.671 Quan Dong 2.836/ 3.542/ 16.088/ 17.005/ 15.751/ 9.857/ (Kwantung) 2.073 3.988 3.708 1.626 1.546 2.096 Hong Kong 10.154/ 8.550/ 20.266/ 21.288/ 18.121/ 17.387/ 5.602 8.541 9.213 3.367 3.570 3.193 • An Dp Mien Di$n 33.441/ 42.811/ 68.428/ 28.067/ 26.807/ 43.747/ 58.354 66.401 102.204 50.509 70.340 95.942 2.322/ 4.065/ 8.050/ 224 426 1.857 3.128/ 8.246/ 6.019/ Dong Dudng 1.221/ 754 4.187 6.577 7.137 9.611 13.080 Chau Dai 79.154/ 98.948/ 93.662/ 79.505/ 94.483/ dudng 48.868/ 16.209 35.865 68.428 16.189 26.705 34.673 Chau Phi 62.377/ 114.202/ 152.158/ 118.350/ 115.023/ 160.609/ 32.088 51.398 92.148 54.671 76.732 131.162 3.120/ 2.532/ Ngudn: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the US 1941 R g h i ^ cflu Lich siSr s g 5.2010 36 Bang 2: Thfldng m^i qua canh va chuydn tau cua My (gdm cac bang lyc dja My, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico vfi tfl 1-1-1935 den 31-12-1939 Ifi Virgin Island) ttt 1933-1940 Ban vi: 1.000 USD C h a u l^c vk c&c q u o c gia ti§u b i e u N&m Chuyen Nh^n Chuyen d^n tvr den tiJf Nh^tif Chuydn Nh|intvr Chuydn den den B i c My N a m My C h a u Au C h a u Dai di^ofng Tong Tong Tong Tong 1933 90.060 35.204 10.359 11.969 25.261 78.266 2.216 2.880 1934 108.293 42.888 12.227 17.048 27.182 83.730 2.722 6.357 1935 101.472 47.994 14.802 19.479 27.823 61.702 1.285 10.737 1936 111.432 44.134 14.733 20.919 30.771 75.165 1.840 9.444 1937 121.161 60.888 23.402 31.370 41.970 68.162 1.959 15.110 1938 91.672 43.633 9.974 22.259 30.198 50.394 1.391 10.868 1939 117.112 58.304 15.997 34.919 39.898 64.610 1.950 10.381 1940 172.147 70.053 51.021 38.685 38.233 119.759 3.607 7.788 Chau A Chau Phi To'ng Tong Nh^t Ban 1933 1.108 3.484 7.223 4.425 2.493 1.570 1934 639 4.496 12.710 9.454 4.454 5.334 1935 452 4.516 12.717 14.123 4.842 9.837 1936 373 5.579 9.229 13.137 3.681 9.266 1937 853 8.124 13.808 19.590 6.882 14.062 1938 561 4.641 8.636 10.638 3.058 5.035 1939 1.260 6.775 10.451 11.679 4.591 5.775 1940 2.786 23.822 16.057 23.745 4.670 12.163 Ngu6n: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the US 1941 Tuy nhien, gia tri xufi't k h i u cac mfit hfing tfl My sang Nhfit vfi ngflge lai c6 sy thay ddi dang ke Trfldc day, vfio cudi thd ky XIX d i u the ky XX, Nhfit Ban lfi nfldc cung cfi'p lya, ehe vfi mgt sd^ mat hang sd cfi'p ldn nhfi't cfla My Ngflge lai My cflng la ngudn cung cfi'p chu yeu ve bong, d i u mo, gd, bgt gifi'y, phan bon, cho Nhfit Ban Td lya vfi bong lfi nhiJtng mfit hfing the manh eua moi nfldc vfi lfi mgt nhiing tac n h a n hfldng ndn kinh te cua ca My, Nhfit Ban tham gia tich eye vfio nen thfldng mai the gidi, md rgng thj trfldng xufi't-nhfip k h i u eac san p h i m thfldng mai Song tfl d i u nhiing nfim Quan h^ hinh tef my-Hhat Bin 37 Bang 3: Nh|ip khau slit ph^ lieu cua Nhat B ^ tii 1929-1938 Dctn vi: tan Niidc/ 1929-1932 1929- 1933-1936 1933- vimg (TB h&ng 1932 (TB hang 1936 nam) (%) nam) (%) 1937 1938 1938 1937 (%) (%) Man Chau 9.600 2,1% 13.500 1% 43.900 1,8% 47.200 3,5% Trung Quoc 13.900 3% 17.200 1,2% 10.700 0,4% 30.200 2,2% Thupe dja 111.800 24,4% 132.800 9,5% 200.100 8,3% 81.700 6% 25.200 5,5% 40.600 2,9% 97.400 4% 66.700 4,9% cua Anh Dong An thugc Hk Lan Uf 163.500 35,7% 942.100 67,2% 1.777.000 73,4% 1.006.700 74,1% Australia 11.600 2,5% 27.200 3,4% 84.000 3,5% 30.400 2,2% Cac nu6c 122.400 26,7% 210.200 15% 206.700 8,5% 95.000 7,1% 467.900 100% 1.403.800 100% 2.419.800 100% 1.357.900 100% khac khac Tdng Ngu6n: Mantetsu, Tokyo shia, chosashitsu, Nichi-Bei tsuslio Icokai joyalcu tiaici no eilcyo narabini sonotaisaku (Tokyo, 1939) DSn theo Michael A Bamhart, Japan prepares for total war, Ttie search for economic security, 1919-1941, Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, 1987, tr 145 Bang 4: Nhap khau thep cua Nhat Ban cac nfim 1933,1937 Dcfn vi: tdn Nfldc 1933 1937 My Tren 1.000.000 tfi'n th6p phe lieu 990.000 ta'n th^p thoi Ngudn: Tdng hop tCf Eliot Janeway, Japanese purcliases in ttie American Economy, Far Eastern Survey, Vol 7, No 11 (Jan., 1,1938), tr.l24 Bang 5: Nhap khau gang cua Nhat Ban tii 1936-1937 Dan vi: tdn 1936 (ca nfim) 1937 (6 thang dau nfim) 271.225 120.570 Anh 2.263 4.642 My 573 148.741 An Do thugc Anh 375.323 171.660 Cac nfldc khac 322.585 69.548 Tdng 971.969 515.771 Nfldc Man Chau Ly Ngu6n: Mantetsu, Tokyo shia, chosashitsu, Shino jihen stiori narabini Ostiu senso boppatsu ni tomonau senji Iceizai taisalcu (Tokyo, 1939) D5n theo Michael A Bamhart, Japan prepares for total war, The search for economic security 1919-1941, Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, 1987, tr 150 '/•> :::•: mw,, 2S Rghien cuu Lich sit s6 5.2010 Bang 6: Xuat khau dau mo tiJf My sang Nh^t Ban cac nfim 1936 va 1937 Dem vi: thiing Nam So thung 1936 (9 thang dau nfim) 16.574.000 1937 (9 thang dau nfim) 23.102.000 1937 (fldc tinh ca nfim) 30.000.000 Ngofii My xua't sang Man Chau Ly 2.250.000 thung Ngu6n: Tdng bap tir Eliot Janeway, Japanese purchases in the American Economy, Far Eastern Survey, Vol 7, No 11 (Jan., 1,1938), tr.l25, 126 Bang 7: Xuat khau may moc cua My nfim 1937 Dcfn vi: l.OOOUSD Nfldc 1937 Nhfit Ban Anh Cac nfldc khac T o n g cong Khoang 9.000 11.300 19.700 40.(HX) Ngu6n: T6ng hop tiJ Eliot Janeway, Japanese purchases in the American Economy, Far Eastern Survey, Vol 7, No 11 (Jan., 1,1938), tr 127 30 cfla t h d k y XX, Nhfit Ban da giam nhfip k h i u bong vfi cfic vfit lieu khac nhfl gd, bgt gifi'y (vo'n chiem ti trgng ldn nhfi't tdng gifi tri xufi't k h i u cfla My sang Nhfit trfldc khflng hoang) de tfip t r u n g ngudn vo'n CO b a n mua nguyen lieu tho va eac t r a n g thidt bj phye vy cong nghiep chien tranh Thay vi nhfip k h i u nhidu bong, go vfi p h a n bon nhfl trfldc day, Nhfit tfing cflcing m u a th6p, sfit, gang, d i u md, vfi may moc (Bang 3, 4, 5, vfi 7) Cau hdi dfit r a b day lfi: Thff nhdt, tai tinh chfi't xung dot ngfiy cfing gia tfing quan he an ninh-quan sy gifla My va Nhfit Ban, My vfin tiep tyc xufi't sang Nhfit eac nguyen vfit lieu co y nghia ehien Iflgc eho chidn tranh Viec xufi't k h i u tac dgng nhfl the nao den nen eong nghiep My va co gop p h i n thflc d i y sy bflng nd chidn t r a n h ci My nhfl da tflng xay nfim 1916-1917 khong? Thff hai, viec nhfip khfiu nhflng mfit hfing nfiy co dong vai tro thidt yeu Iflgng tieu t h y th^p, d i u vfi eae nguyen vfit lieu quan trgng khae ddi vdi san xufi't eong nghiep vfi chien tranh cfla Nhfit Ban h a y khong? De t r a loi nhflng eau hoi nfiy, chflng ta phai cfin cfl vfio thyc t r a n g kinh te vfi quan diem cua gidi e l m quyen My vfi Nhfit Ban ve eac vfi'n de c6 lien quan Vd phia Nhfit Ban, tfl kinh nghiem qua khfl vfi nhiing bfii hge ve eae eugc xung dot gifla eae cflcing qudc tren the gidi, ehinh gidi Nhfit Ban nhfin thflc ro rfing rfing ket qua cfla cae cugc ehien t r a n h tfldng lai khong ehi dfldc djnh doat bfing sung dan mfi b i n g k h a nfing huy dgng tfi't ca cac ngudn lflc cfla dfi't nfldc Quan he hinh t& STy-Rhat BJbi Neu Nhfit khong xay dflng dflge mgt nen cong nghiep Men dai sfin sang dap flng mgi yeu clu cin thiet thi mgi no lflc khae cung se thfinh vo nghia Mgt qudc gia khong c6 kha nfing tfl dap flng cac nhu clu thcli chidn se bj cac nfldc khac gfiy sflc 6p ve kinh te, d6 vfla khong dam bao dflge an ninh vfla khong co ehu quyen thye sfl Ngay tfl nfim 1915, dfla tren ket qua didu tra tinh binh Nhfit Ban, mien Bfic vfi Trung Trung Qudc, nghien cflu ky tae phim viet vd nhflng no lflc cfla Dflc nhim xay dflng nen kinh te tfl chfl tbdi chien, dai ta Koiso Kuniaki da de xufi't mgt ke hoach vdi hai ngi dung ehinh: Thff nhdt, Koiso cho rfing ea dao qudc Nhfit Ban hay cfic thugc dia cua Nhfit gdm Dfii Loan, Trieu Tien, Nam Sakhalin deu khong eung cfi'p du cae ngudn lyc eho viSc tien hfinh mgt cugc ehien tranh hi6n dai Vi vfiy, vfi'n dd cfi'p bach dfit ddi vdi Nhfit Ban lfi phai chiem dflge nhflng Ifinb thd gifiu co hdn, vi dy Trung Qudc Thff hai, neu khong c6 mgt ndn kinh td ngi dja dflge td ehflc tot, eo the huy dgng nhanh eh6ng vfi hieu qua cho chidn tranh thi viec bd sung them nhieu ngudn lflc ben ngofii eung khong co gia tri Theo Koiso, giai phfip lfi phai xay dflng mgt ke hoach huy dgng tofin dien mgi ngudn lflc (1) Ke hoach dflge Bg Qudc phong ung hg Tfl d6 den nfim 1931, Nhfit Ban da ban hfinh mgt sd^ dao lufit vfi thfinh Ifip nhieu cd quan de thyc hjen kd hoach nfiy nhfl Lufit eung cfi'p dan dflge (1917), Cue Quan gidi (1918), Ban Danh gia sflc manh qudc gia (1920), Sfic Ignh ve nghiem cflu dan dflge (1920), Cyc Trang bi (1924) thugc Bg Qudc phong, Cyc Tfii nguyen thugc Ngi cac (1927) Tai Hgi nghj l i n thfl cua Cyc Tfii nguyen cae nhfi hoach djnh ehinh sach 39 quan sfl vfi dan sfl dfla ke hoach diu tien ve huy dgng tofin dign cho chidn tranh tdng lflc vfi dfl djnh hofin thign ke hoach nfiy vfio thang 9-1932 Trong dieu kien Nhfit thieu b l u bet cac nguyen vfit ligu thidt yeu cho mgt cugc chien tranh hien dai, giai phfip tfi't yeu lfi phai chiem cfic viing lanh thd c6 vj tri chidn Iflgc, gifiu tfii nguyen thien nhien vfi nhfip khiu nguygn vfit lieu Tren thflc te, cflng vdi viec tfing cfldng xfim Iflgc Trung Quoc vfi Dong Nam A, Nhfit Ban diy manh nhfip khiu nhflng nguyen lieu cin thiet eho sfl phfit trien eong nghigp, dfic bi$t la eong ngbiep qufin sfl Ro rfing lfi, so vdi vi$c khai thfic tfii nguyen cl eac vflng lanh tho Nhfit chiem dong, giai phap nhfip khfiu chi mang tinh tam thcli, song day vin luon lfi ngudn bd sung nguyen lieu quan trgng cho Nhfit Ban Sd lieu thdng kg cho thfi'y, san Ifldng nguyen nhign ligu Nhfit khai thac cl eac thugc dja (dfic biet lfi diu mo) kha ldn nhflng vfin khong dap flng dfl yeu clu cfla qufin dgi, nhfi't lfi hai quan Day cung lfi ly khien Nhfit de chfldng trinh diy tham vgng chiet xufi't diu tong bgp tfl da phidn hofic than da song san Ifldng thflc te luon b mflc rfi't thfi'p so vdi mye tigu de (Xem bang 8) Hdn nfla, qua trinh bfinh trfldng lanh thd vfi xay dflng nen kinh te tfl chu, Nhfit vfi'p phai lflc can rfi't ldn tfl Lign Xo Trong eugc hgp gifla cac tfldng linh quan dgi cao cfi'p td chfle thang 6-1933 dfldi sy ehu toa eua Bg trfldng Qude phdng Araki Sadao, tfi't ca cac thfinh vign tham dfl deu nhfi't tri cho ring Lign Xo lfi mdi de dga ldn nhfi't ddi vdi an ninh Nhfit Ban Thfing 91933, Araki de trinh Ign ngi cac kd hoach cung co' vj tri cfla Nhfit Ban ea vfi ngofii nfldc Xufi't phat tfl quan diem cho ring Nhfit se phai ddi mfit vdi eugc khflng 40 Rghien curu Ljch sir, sd 5.2Q1Q Bang 8: Muc tieu va san Ifl^tag dau tdng hdp cua Nhat Ban tii 1937-1941 B(fn vi: trieu lit Nfim 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 Muc tieu 87 446 489 930 1243 San Ifldng thflc te 11 21 24 194 Ngu6n: Bamhart, M.A (1987), Japan prepares for total war- The search for economic security, 1919-1941, Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, tr 146 hoang quo'c te vfio nam 1936, Araki dfla ke hoach: b nfldc, Nhfit Ban phai tien hfinh cai each giao dye vfi tfl tfldng de nang cao tinh t h i n dan chflng, trg gia eho nong dan vfi dam bao ngudn cung cfi'p Ifldng thyc thyc phim dfl thfla ngi dja ddng thdi tai vu trang vfi trign khai chfldng trinh tfing cfldng dfic biet la ve nhien Ueu de giflp de chd Nhfit Ban cbd'ng chgi vdi cugc khflng hoang nfim 1936 O ngoai nfldc, Nhfit Ban ein tfing cfldng kha nfing phdng thu Man Chau Ly, loai Lign Xo khoi eae moi quan he ddng minh vdi Nhfit, huge Trung Quo'c phai cam ke't tri quan he hflu hao vdi Nhfit Song neu chidn tranh xay vdi Lign Xd, Nhfit Ban se phai tao mgt nfldc dem d midn Bfic Trung Qud'c de bao ve sfldn phia Bfic (2) Moi de dga tfl Lign Xd cfing ldn hdn ddn nfim 1936 lyc Iflgng quan sy eua Lien Xo b Vien Dong da tfing tfl sfl doan dflge trang bj sflng trfldng (1932) Ign 14 sfl dofin vdi gin 1.000 xe tfing vfi nhieu may bay chien dfi'u cdn dgi quan Quan Ddng cfla Nhfit ehi cd sfl dofin vdi eac trang thidt bj cu ky Trong bdl eanh Nhfit Ban dang tfing cfldng chidn tranh trdn lyc dja chau A, ngudn eung cfi'p nguyen vfit lieu tfl thugc dja khdng du dap flng nhu clu eua quan dgi vfi cdng nghigp quan sy, phai ddi dign vdi de doa sat sfldn tfl phia Lien Xd, Nhfit phai tim each thoat khoi tinh trang hien thdi bing each tim kiem giai phap hda binh (hofic it nhfi't lfi tranh xung dot tryc tiep) vdi cac cfldng qudc khac dfic bigt la My de tfing cfldng nhfip k h i u nguyen lieu va may mdc Song quan hg vdi My, gidi quan sfl Nhfit Ban ed hai y kien khac Trong nghidn cflu diu tien eua Ban Lanh dao ehien tranh vfio mfla hd nfim 1936, phe lye quan eho ring tri moi quan hg tdt dep vdi My lfi khdng the thieu de ddi phd vdi ke thfl nguy hiem nhfi't cua lyc quan lfi Lign Xd Trong dd, hai quan Nhfit lai coi My lfi mdi de doa ldn nhfi't trgn bien vfi de xufi't ke hoach tfi'n cdng ca My vfi Lign Xd, dd lyc quan tfi'n edng Lidn Xd, hai quan tfi'n edng My Song de xufi't cua hai quan hoc Id mdt nghich ly, dd lfi hai quan Nhfit tfi'n edng chien ham My thi Nhfit vfin se phai nhfip bdng cfla My, se, det sdi bdng vfi ban thfinh phim sang thi trfldng ehinh lfi My, phai nhfip tfl My cac loai thdp, hdp kim, may mdc vfi cac thiet bj phflc tap dfic biet cin thiet cho viec tien hfinh chien tranh Dieu dd cho thfi'y vfio thdi diem nfiy, phat ddng chien tranh vdi My lfi giai phap thidu sang sudt Hdn nfla, theo phan tich eua lye quan, Nhfit Ban cin tri hofi binh it nhfi't nfim dd md rgng san xufi't, tfing cfldng kha nfing dap ling cho qufin ddi (3) Ve phia My, tfl nfim 1927, Stanley Hornbeek, chuydn gia cua chinh phu My vl Quan h^ hinh tg aTy-Rhat Bin eac vfi'n dd Vien Ddng, da ndu quan diem cho ring neu boat ddng cua Qud'c dan Dang d Trung Qudc can trd diu tfl nfldc ngofii vfi lfim td'e tfing trfldng kinh te cfla Nhfit chfim lai, nfldc nfiy se huge phai hfldng sfl phat tridn kinh td vfio lyc dja chau A dfl cai gia phai tra lfi sfl hon loan ehinh trj b Trung Qud'c vfi sfl khac biet ehinh tri sau sfic vdi My vi an ninh cfla Nhfit phy thudc vfio dieu dd Thang 6-1931, trgn cfldng vj Trfldng ban Viin Ddng (thudc Bd Ngoai giao), Hornbeek dfic bigt chfl y tdi sfl ehuin bj huy ddng cac ngudn lflc cho cdng nghigp cua Cyc Tfii nguygn Nhfit Ban vfi nghi ngd r i n g Nhfit cd the vfldt qua sfl thieu hyt tfii nguygn dd tien hfinh mdt ke hoach chi tiet vfi hieu qua Tuy nhign, sfl kien Man Chau xay ra, ca Hornbeek, Ngoai trfldng My Stimson vfi cac nhan vien Bg Ngoai giao chju trach nhiem phan tich chinh sach dd'i ngoai cfla Nhfit deu khdng thfit sfl tin vfio y djnh xay dyng ndn kinh te tfl chfl cfla ehinh phu Nhfit Ly lfi Nhfit thidu h i u het cae nguygn ligu ehien Ifldc de cd the bien y djnh dd thfinh sfl thyc Cud'i nfim 1933, phin ldn ngfldi My, dd cd Stanley Hornbeek, Joseph Grew- Tan Dai sfl My tai Nhfit Ban vfin tin ring vi^e Nhfit chiem Mfin Chau lfi vi danh dy cua Lyc quan Nhfit chfl khdng phai vi sy sdng edn cua ke hoach xay dflng xay dflng ndn kinh te ty chfl Nhflng chinh khach nfiy cho r i n g sdm hay mugn Lye quan Nhfit se nhfin thfi'y vige phat trien Mfin Chau tidu tdn cua Nhfit nhflng khoan diu tfl rfi't ldn vfi dd huge phai dflng vige xam chidm Hg qua lfi, Lyc quan se bj mfi't danh dfl vfi gidi chfle dan sy dn hda vdn ung hd quan hg chfit che vdi phfldng Tay se trd lai nfim quydn (4) Tfldng tfl nhfl vfiy, Tdng thdng Roosevelt cung tin tfldng sau sfic r i n g ndn kinh te eua Nhfit Ban ye'u, khdng cd kha nfing hofin thfinh 41 bfi't cfl chfldng trinh diy tham vgng nfio ke ca nfldc hay b nxidc ngofii vfi se diu hfing trfldc bfi't cfl hfinh dgng cflng rfin nfio cfla My Hdn nfla, vdi nhieu lgi the nhfl dign ticb lanh thd, sfl phong phfl vd tfii nguygn thign nhign, dan cfl tfl cud'i the ky XIX, My dfi xay dyng dflge ndn td tfl chu, lfi nfldc dfin d i u ve san Iflgng cdng nghigp vfi gia trj xufi't k h i u nhieu mfit hfing quan trgng Trgn cd sd kinh td dd, quan didm cfla ngfldi My ve eae yeu td ed t i m quan trgng dfic bigt dd'i vdi an ninh qudc gia khae bigt dang ke vdi ngfldi Nhfit Ban Sy khac bigt ve quan diem dd cfing gia tfing sau Chien tranh the gidi thfl Nhfi't Trong chinh gidi Nhfit Ban nd lflc ca vd kinh te vfi quan sy de Dd che Nhfit khdng Ifip lai so' phfin nhfl nfldc Dflc thi gidi lanh dao My cho r i n g an ninh qude gia My phy thugc vfio sfl tai Ifip trfit tfl tofin clu dfla tren cfic nguydn tfic cfla lufit phap qud'c te, theo moi qude gia ed quyen dgc Ifip vfi tfl ve ehinh trj, ed ed hdi binh ding ve thfldng mai vdi cae nfldc khac Day cung lfi mdt nhflng ndi dung eua Chinh sach Md cfla dflge My ap dyng dd'i vdi cfic nfldc Ddng A tfl sau sfl kign Mfin Chau den trfldc cugc tfi'n edng cfla Nhfit tai Tran Chau cang vfi eua Higp fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hang hai ky gifla My vfi Nhfit Ban eae nfim 1894 vfi 1911 Ngofii edn mdt 1^ nfla gdp p h i n ly giai tai My vfin tri quan he budn ban vdi Nhfit quan he an ninhquan sfl gifla hai nfldc ngfiy cfing cfing thing dd lfi hieu lflc cua Higp fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hfing hai My-Nhfit ky thang 21911 Sau sfl kign Man Chau, Ngoai trfldng Stimson da phan dd'i dd nghj cua mdt sd nghj si My ve cfi'm vfin vu khf ddi 42 Rghito curu L}ch sit s6 5.2010 vdi Nhfit, ddng thdi khdng tan thfinh ldi go cung anh hfldng tdi ngfinh cdng nghigp kdu ggi t i y chay hfing hoa Nhfit cfla cdng tfldng flng eua My Thdng thfldng, phin chflng My vdi ly vi pham nguyen tfic cd ldn go xufi't k h i u dfldc chuydn chd tdi Viin hdi ddng deu vd thfldng mai Higp Ddng dd phue vu ngfinh cdng nghigp fldc ky nfim 1911 Thfim chi Stimson cdn dfldng sfit vfi xay dflng, song vfio nfim ggi mdt ngfldi so' hg lfi "ke gia ddi 1937 (nhfi't lfi sau thang 7-1937), vige vfin dang nguyen rua" Herbert Feis (cd vfi'n chuydn go ddn Viin Ddng (dfic bi$t lfi khu kinh te cua Bd Ngoai giao), mdt sd quan vyc chien sfl) giam dfing ke tfl 86,35 trigu chfle Bd Thfldng mai vfi Tfii ehfnh eung •m^ (nfim 1936) xudng cdn 53,02 trigu m^ cho ring viec ap dyng cac bien phap trflng tdng san Ifldng khoang ti m^/moi phat quye't liet dfldi bfi't k^ hinh thflc nfio nfim cua ngfinh cdng nghigp go vflng bd lfi khdng phfl hgp vfi khdng hgp phap, trfl bien phfa Tay nfldc My Quy I nfim 1938, Higp fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hfing hai bj sd nfiy giam xudng chi edn khoang 5,12 trieu m^ ca nfim 1938 lfi 20,6 trigu xda bd m^ Sy giam sut nfiy lfi mdt nhflng Kg't qua lfi, nhflng nfim 1931- nhan to' gay nen tinh trang mfi't can ddi 1939, mac dfl ehfnh gidi My ludn ngfinh edng nghigp go eua My diin cude tranh lufin xung quanh vfi'n Nhflng, khac vdi anh hfldng ddi vdi ngfinh dd My cd ngn ap dyng bign phap trflng bdng cua My, tae ddng cfla Nhfit Ban tdi phat kinh td vdi Nhfit hay khdng, quan hg ngfinh cdng nghigp go cfla My khdng ro thfldng mai song phfldng My - Nhfit Ban ndt bing vi mfic dfl ft nhfi't 1/2 Ifldng gd vfin tiep tyc dfldc tri, thfim chi gia nhfip k h i u vfio Nhfit den tfl My nhflng so tfing nhieu nfim Song, quan hg nfiy vdi cfic nfldc khac Nhfit chfla bao gid lfi cd nhflng tfic ddng khdng gidng ddi nfldc tigu thy gd ehfnh eua My vdi mdi nfldc Ve phfa My, vi bong lfi mfit hfing xufi't k h i u quan trgng nhfi't sang Nhfit ddng thdi sfl phat trien ngfinh trdng bdng vfi sd che bdng cung phy thudc vfio xufi't k h i u hdn bfi't cfl ngfinh nfio khac, ngn viec Nhfit (vfi mdt sd nfldc khac) giam nhfip k h i u mfit hfing nfiy dfi khidn boat ddng xufi't k h i u bdng eua My rdi vfio tinh trang suy thofii nhidu nfim Sfl dinh dd'n xufi't k h i u dfin ddn tinh trang dfl thfla bdng d My Vfio ngfiy 1-81938, vy bdng mdi bfit diu My dy thfla khoang tfl 12 den 13 tridu kien bdng R5 rfing lfi, sy suy giam xufi't k h i u bdng da gay khd khfin ldn cho vide quay vdng vd'n phye vy diy manh san xufi't nhflng vy mfla tiep theo Tydng tfl nhfl vfiy, sfl suy giam gia trj xufi't k h i u Trong dd, sdt, thep, ddu mo lfi nhflng mat hfing quan trgng vfi tfing nhanh nhfi't tdng gia trj xufi't khfiu "mdi' cfla My sang Nhfit Nhflng xdt ve mfit sd, sfl gia tfing nfiy anh hfldng khdng ldn tdi thi trfldng tidu thy nhflng san p h i m dd cfla My cung nhfl ddi vdi cfic ngfinh cdng nghigp nfiy d My Ly lfi Iflgng sfit thdp xufi't k h i u sang Nhfit chiem ti trgng ldn nhfi't so vdi cfic qudc gia khac nhflng so vdi tdng Iflgng tieu thy sfit thdp My dd vin lfi sd rfi't nhd Vf dy nhfl nfim 1937, Iflgng thdp xufi't k h i u sang Nhfit ehi bing khoang 3% tdng Ifldng thdp tidu thy cua My Lygng d i u md eua My xufi't sang Nhfit vfi Man Chau Ly nfim 1937 cung chi chiem khoang 1/5 tdng lygng diu xufi't k h i u cfla My Dieu Quan he hinh tg my-Rhat Bin dd eho thfi'y, sy gia tfing gia trj xufi't k h i u sfit, thdp, cao su, d i u md vfi may mdc eua My sang Nhfit nhflng nfim trfldc chien tranh tac ddng khdng ldn tdi boat ddng cfla cae ngfinh edng nghigp tfldng flng d My Ndi each khfic, nhu clu ngfiy cfing tfing ve nguyen vfit lieu dflng eae ngfinh edng nghigp phye vy ehien tranh cua Nhfit Ban khdng thflc diy sfl bflng nd san xufi't cdng nghiep chien tranh d My Trong dd, vdi Nhfit Ban - vd'n ludn gfip nhflng khd khfin cd hflu ve nguydn lieu cho sfl phat trien cdng nghigp, sy gia tfing gia tri nhfip k h i u nhflng nguygn vfit lieu ndi tren ro rfing ddng vai trd vd cflng quan trgng vide md rdng cae ngfinh edng nghigp nfing thugc the hg thfl hai nhfl thdp, didn may, d i u md, may mdc ndi chung Nfim 1938, Nhfit nhfip cua My trdn 1.000.000 tfi'n sfit phe ligu, chidm tdi 74,1% Iflgng sfit nhfip k h i u cua Nhfit Vi vfiy, le tfi't nhidn neu My ngflng xufi't k h i u sfit phe lieu, san Iflgng thdp cfla Nhfit se giam tfldng flng khoang trdn 1.000.000 tfi'n vfi kdo theo dd lfi cac tac ddng tidu cflc dd'i vdi ca hai linh vyc quan sy vfi dan sfl Tfldng tfl nhfl vfiy, nfim 1938, My lfi nfldc xufi't k h i u may mdc hfing diu sang Nhfit Ban, vdi ti Id trgn 60% Cd mgt thye td lfi sd Ifldng may mdc Nhfit san xufi't tfing nhanh chdng nhflng vfin khdng dap flng du ydu elu cho vige tid'n hfinh cugc chien tranh tai Trung Qud'c vfi chay dua vu trang ndi ehung Vi vfiy, Nhfit Ban cflng ngfiy cfing phy thudc vfio My ve ngudn eung cfi'p mfiy mdc Trong dd, ddng dd vd'n lfi mdt nhflng san phim mfi Nhfit khdng nhflng san xufi't dap flng du nhu clu nfldc mfi cdn xufi't khiu thi tfl gifla nfim 1939 tinh hinh nfiy dfi chfi'm dflt Nhu clu sfl dyng ddng dd de lfim vd dan, thiet bj dien tfl vfi md rgng eac ngfinh 43 cdng nghiep nfing dfit ydu elu nhfip k h i u ddng_ vdi so' Iflgng ldn Nfim 1939, Nhfit san xufi't dfldc khoang 90.000 tfi'n, nhfip k h i u gin 105.000 tfi'n dd 93% lfi tfl My He qua lfi, ngfinh cdng nghigp det cfla Nhfit Ban giam d i n sfl phy thudc vfio My vdi tfl each ngudn cung cfi'p nguygn lieu thd chu ydu thi cac ngfinh cdng nghigp quan sfl vfi ban quan sfl eua Nhfit ngly cfing phu thudc vfio My vi day la nfldc xufi't k h i u nhieu nhfi't hofic lfi mdt nhflng nfldc xufi't k h i u nhieu nhfi't eae loai nguyen ligu thd vfi may mdc cho Nhfit Ban Vi vfiy, mdt lenh cfi'm xufi't khfiu cac mat hfing nfiy tfl phfa My cung ddng nghia vdi vige nhieu ngfinh edng nghigp quan trgng cfla Nhfit Ban bj dinh trg Sy phy thudc cfla Nhfit dd'i vdi d i u md cua My thfim chf cdn nfing ne hdn Nhin ehung My eung cfi'p tdi 80% nhu clu diu md cfla Nhfit, dd mdt sd' san phim dfic biet nhfl xfing lfi tren 90% Dieu nfiy cung gdp p h i n giai thich tai Nhfit Ban cd' gfing khdng diy tinh trang xung dot den mflc bflng nd chidn tranh gifla hai nfldc ddng thdi tfch eye diy manh edng eudc Bfic tien vfio lyc dja Trung Hoa vfi Nam tien xudng khu vyc Ddng Nam A Tuy nhidn, hfinh dgng theo hydng thfl hai cfla Nhfit Ban khien xung dot quyen lgi gifla Nhfit vfi My ngfiy cfing gia tfing Thfing 7-1939, Ngoai trfldng My Hull thdng bao vdi Dai sfl Nhfit d Washington Hironouchi ve xofi bd Hi$p fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hfing hai ky nfim 1911 vfi gia ban thang ke tfl ngfiy thdng bao Thang 11940, Higp fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hfing hai gifla My vfi Nhfit Ban chfnh thflc bj xoa bd Hfinh ddng nfiy da md dfldng ve mfit phap ly cho vide ban hfinh vfi thflc hien Rghien curu Lich sit s6 5.2010 44 eae bign phap trflng phat kinh te ddi vdi Nhfit Ban Trong thdi gian sau do, chinh gidi My lien tyc tranh lufin vd "tinh dflng dfin" cua vide ap dyng nhflng bign phap nfiy ehinh My cung bfit d i u chyong trinh tai vu trang Ket qua la, thfing 10-1940, Tdng thdng Roosevelt ban hfinh lenh cfi'm xufi't k h i u thdp phe ligu vfi sfit ngofii Tay bfin clu (trfl Anh) vdi chfl djnh thflc sfl lfi cfit ngudn eung cfi'p san phim rfi't cin thiet cho Nhfit Ban Thang 7-1941, chinh phfl My cfi'm xufi't k h i u d i u sang Nhfit Chfnh quyet djnh nfiy cua My cflng vdi sy thfi't bai eua cac cude dfim phfin song phfldng n h i m tri hofin thdi didm xay xung ddng thyc sy gifla My vfi Nhfit da thflc diy Nhfit Ban bfinh trfldng manh xud'ng tay nam Thai Binh Dfldng- khu vflc sfin cd trfl Iflgng ldn nhieu sd' nhflng nguygn ligu cd t i m quan trgng nhfi't ddi vdi Nhfit Ben canh dd, lenh phong tda tfii san vfi sau dd lfi cfi'm vfin tofin dien cfla My da khien gidi Ifinh dao qufin ddi de che Nhfit nhfin thfi'y vide tien hfinh cude chien tranh chd'ng lai Lien Xd vfio nfim 1941 la khdng kha thi vfi quyet djnh flng hd de xufi't cua hai quan Nhfit ve qua trinh Nam tien dd bao gdm ca viec tfi'n cdng My Cude ehien tranh Thai Binh Dfldng suy cho cflng lfi xung dot gifla hai ludng quan diem, hai tham vgng ddi vdi khu vflc Ddng A Vd phia Nhat Ban, dd lfi tham vgng xay dflng Khu vflc Thjnh vfldng chung Dai Ddng A thfinh mdt ehinh the diy sflc manh vfi tfl chu ve kinh te mfi de che Nhfit lfi hat nhan eua Khu vyc dd Vd phfa My, dd lfi no lflc ngfin chfin tham vgng cua Nhfit vfi cflng vdi dd lfi phue hdi eae nguyen tfic eua "Chfnh sach md cfla" quan he kinh te qudc te nhim dam bao tdi da ldi fch cua My CHU THICH (1), (2) Bamhart, M.A (1987), Japan prepares (3), (4) Bamhart, M.A (1987), Japan prepares for total war - TTie search for economic security, for total war - The search for economic security, 1919-1941, Cornell University Press, Ithaca and 1919-1941, Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, pp 23, 35 London, pp 45, 115 ...35 Quan h^ hinh te my-Rhat Bin Bang 1: Xuat (gdm ca tai xuat) • nhap khau hang hoa giiifa My (gdm cac bang luc dia My, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico va tir 1-1 -1 935 den 3 1-1 2-1 939 la Virgin... u nhiing nfim Quan h^ hinh tef my-Hhat Bin 37 Bang 3: Nh|ip khau slit ph^ lieu cua Nhat B ^ tii 192 9-1 938 Dctn vi: tan Niidc/ 192 9-1 932 192 9- 193 3-1 936 193 3- vimg (TB h&ng 1932 (TB hang 1936... cua My (gdm cac bang lyc dja My, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico vfi tfl 1-1 -1 935 den 3 1-1 2-1 939 Ifi Virgin Island) ttt 193 3-1 940 Ban vi: 1.000 USD C h a u l^c vk c&c q u o c gia ti§u b i e u N&m