The thesis examines the Investors’ reaction to the stock trading announcement of internal shareholders, stakeholders and major shareholders being foreign investors.
Trang 2Trang 3
Two in the objects with special advantages in information are internal shareholders and stakeholders. Thus, in order to create the equity and limit the asymmetric information between internal shareholders, stakeholders and other shareholders in trading stocks, according to regulations of current laws, all stock trading of the majority shareholders, internal shareholders and stakeholders must announce information before trading1
In addition to the internal shareholders, the stakeholders are considered to have advantage in information no less than the internal shareholders. In the context of incomplete law system and specific cultural factors as in Vietnam, it is possible to exclude that the information on businesses is transmitted by the internal shareholders to the stakeholders Therefore, the transaction of the internal shareholders and stakeholders can cause the extraordinary changes in price and trading volume.
However, through researching the previous studies, there have not been the study on the internal shareholders’ impacts on price and trading volume in Vietnam stock market. This is a blank not only in the practical demand but also in the academy to be considered.
Other object that the thesis aims is transaction of the foreign investors. There are many studies
on the foreign investors in Vietnam as the studies of Vo Xuan Vinh (2014), Batten & Vo (2015), Vo Xuan Vinh (2016) , Vo Xuan Vinh & Dang Buu Kiem (2016d), etc. However, there have not been the study which analyzes the impacts of information that the foreign investors become majority shareholders or no longer majority shareholders.
1.2. Thesis’s targets
Specifically, the thesis studies the following contents:
Firstly, the thesis analyzes the Investors’ reaction based on stock price and trading volume to the stock trading announcement of internal shareholders.
Secondly, the thesis analyzes the Investors’ reaction based on stock price and trading volume to the stock trading announcement of stakeholders.
Thirdly, the thesis analyzes the Investors’ reaction based on stock price and trading volume
to the impact of information that the foreign investors become majority shareholders or no longer majority shareholders
Trang 4• How does the stock price fluctuate when information that the foreign investors become majority shareholders or no longer majority shareholders is announced?
• How does the trading volume fluctuate when information that the foreign investors become majority shareholders or no longer majority shareholders is announced?
1.4. Object
The thesis examines the Investors’ reaction to the stock trading announcement of internal shareholders, stakeholders and major shareholders being foreign investors.
1.5. Study’s scope
The study includes the announcements of stock transaction registration of internal shareholders, stakeholders; and foreign investors from companies listed on Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange over the period from 2008 to 2015
Identify the topic, object, targets and study’s scope.
Thirdly: Examine summarily the theories, systematize and summarize the previous studies
related to the topic.
Fourthly: From the previous studies, select the suitable estimation method for the topic.
Fifth: Collect the essential data for the study.
Sixth: Implement the necessary tests to analyze and discuss the results achieved of the
Trang 5The terms of internal shareholder and stakeholder in this these are defined according to Circular No 155/2015/TTBTC on 06 October 2015, specifically, the contents are quoted as follows: Internal shareholders, stakeholders, majority shareholders, date of information announcement, information of stock transaction registration, internal information, abnormal return, abnormal volume
2.2. Introduction to the stock market in Vietnam
The stock market is not only a channel of medium and long term capital mobilization but also an import channel in managing the macroeconomic policies in many countries around the world. In Vietnam, the stock market was officially formed on 11 July 1998 according to Decree No. 48/CP on Stock and Stock market, on the same day, the Prime Minister signed Decision No. 127/1998/QĐTTg to establish Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center.
2.3. Legal regulations on information announcement
2.3.1. Legal documents stipulating information announcement
The information announcement is institutionalized by legal documents, when taking part in listing on the stock exchanges, the companies must comply with information announcement.
The information announcement is stipulated specifically in Stock laws and specificized by Circulars as Circular No 38/2007/TTBTC on 18/4/2007, Circular No 09/2010/TTBTC on 15/01/2010, Circular No 52/2012/TTBTC on 05/04/2012, and most recently, Circular No. 155/2015/TTBTC on 06/10/2015. The related information announcement is stipulated specifically
as follows ( 2 ):
2.3.2. Information announcement
The objects are announced according to Circular No. 155/2015/TTBTC on 06/10/2015 2.3.3. Means of information announcement
market, the internal people are internal shareholders.
Trang 6In the market, there are always other transactions created by the buyers and the sellers. The basis for the investors’ behaviors leading to transactions which create the different positions is explained by Karpoff (1986) through theory of trading volume. This theory mentions 2 main factors creating all transactions: Firstly, Karpoff (1986) thinks that before one problem or event, the investors have the most suitable way to analyze and explain for themselves and have difference between investors. Thus, they create the different transactions. Secondly, in spite of explaining the same problem, each investors have the different expectation and desire, thus, they have different transaction behaviors Simultaneously, if the both factors exist, the transactions in the market become more ebullient.
2.5. Theoretical basis of Investors’ reaction based on stock price and trading volume to the stock trading information of the internal shareholders, stakeholders, and foreign investors
2.5.1. Theory of asymmetric information
The theory used in this thesis is theory of asymmetric information, this theory is developed by Akerlof (1970) with the famous article on asymmetric information between related parties in the old automobile market, which is posted in The quarterly journal of economics.
In this thesis, the asymmetric information is applied to explain the investors’ behaviors as follows: i) It is possible that the investors are the internal shareholders or stakeholders trading stock based on information that they hold; ii) The outside investors do not have much information, they think that the contents of transaction registration of the internal shareholders and stakeholders have information and the outside investors imitate
Based on the theory of asymmetric information, that the stock trading of the internal shareholders, stakeholders and transactions of the foreign investors to become or no longer majority shareholders, makes the investors in the market doubt of these transactions having unannounced information. Therefore, the investors in the market can implement the transactions similar to the ones of the internal shareholders, stakeholders and foreign investors to reduce risks and look for return. This is the reason for creating changes in stock price and trading volume.
2.5.2. Signaling theory
The Signaling theory believes that the behaviors and decisions of the internal shareholders, stakeholders and foreign investors being majority shareholders can contain the sign for other shareholders and implies the information that others do not have. The Signaling theory shows that when the internal shareholders or stakeholders register stock transaction, that can lead to the changes in stock price and trading volume in the market
For the transactions of the foreign investors, every transaction contains the signs about the different expectations on the company. On the contrary, when the foreign investors want to reduce the stock holding rate to be no longer majority shareholders, the management policies as well as transparency can change, thus, the company’s performance decreases.
2.5.3. Efficient market hypothesis
The investors’ reaction when the company announces information is explained by the Efficient market hypothesis of Farma (1970). This hypothesis believes that a market is considered to
Trang 7Although the Efficient market hypothesis is applied widely in the financial theories, some studies state that the market is nonefficient. (Aharony & Swary 1980; Asquith & Mullins Jr 1983; Bajaj & Vijh 1995; Bernheim & Wantz 1992; Charest 1978; Dyl & Weigand 1998; Grinblatt et al. 1984; Lie 2005; Woolridge 1982). These studies prove the existence of the abnormal return before and after the date of information announcement.
2.6. Overview of previous studies
According to statistic data of (Kothari & Warner 2005) from 1974 to 2000, there were 565 studies posted in the prestigious magazines in the world. Some typical studies:
2.6.1. The studies related to information of dividend payment
Studies of Pettit (1972), Charest (1978), Aharony & Swary (1980), Woolridge (1982), Asquith & Mullins Jr (1983), Grinblatt et al. (1984), Wansley et al. (1991), Gurgul et al. (2003), Fuller (2003), Lee & Yan (2003), McCluskey et al. (2006), Dasilas & Leventis (2011), Chen et al. (2014), Vo Xuan Vinh & Doan Thi Minh Thai (2015), Nguyen Thi Minh Hue (2015)…
2.6.2. Some previous studies related to stock dividend announcement
Some typical studies: (Copeland 1979; Han 1995; Ball & Brown 1968; Chen et al. 2011; Chou
et al. 2005; Desai & Jain 1997; Doran 1994; Dyckman et al 1984; Elfakhani & Lung 2003; Grinblatt et al. 1984; Kunz & Rosa‐Majhensek 2008; Lamoureux & Poon 1987, Vo Xuan Vinh & Phan Thi Anh Thu 2014)
2.6.3. Some previous studies related to information of buying stocks back
Some typical studies: Chua (2010); Yook (2010), Wu (2012), Reddy et al. (2013), Hillert et al. (2016), Vo Xuan Vinh & Trinh Tan Luc (2015).
2.6.4. Information of releasing the Financial statements of the Enterprise
Ball & Brown (1968), Hew et al. (1996), Liu et al. (2003), Schadewitz et al. (2005), Vo Xuan Vinh & Le Thi Kim Phuong (2014), many studies examined the investors’ reaction based on stock price when the Adjusted Auditing Report is publicized, example, some first studies implemented in United Kingdom, the United States and Australia: (Baskin 1972; Dodd et al. 1984; Dopuch et al. 1986; Firth 1978; Herbohn et al. 2007; Hsu et al. 2011; Ianniello & Galloppo 2015; Pei & Hamill 2013); in Vietnam, there was study of Tran Thi Giang Tan & Lam Vu Phi (2017)
2.6.5. Besides, some other studies turn around the events related to stock market
Vo Xuan Vinh & Le Thi Kim Phuong (2014), Vo Xuan Vinh & Trinh Tan Luc (2015), Vo Xuan Vinh & Dang Buu Kiem (2016d).
Trang 8Figure 2.4 Document map
Dividend payment (Bajaj & Vijh 1995;
Chen et al. 2014; Lee &
Yan 2003; Võ Xuân
Vinh & Đ ng B u Ki m ặ ử ế
2016a; Võ Xuân Vinh &
Đoàn Th Minh Thái ị
2015)
MARKET’S REACTION
TO ECONOMIC – FINANCIAL EVENTS
Dividend distribution (Ball & Brown 1968; Chen et al. 2011; Chou et al. 2005; Desai & Jain 1997; Elfakhani & Lung 2003; Kunz & Rosa‐Majhensek 2008; Lamoureux & Poon 1987)
Marisetty et al. 2008;
Salamudin et al. 1999;
Tan et al. 2002; Xia et al.
2010)
Rebuying stocks (Chua 2010b; Hillert et
al. 2016; Reddy et al.
2013; Võ Xuân Vinh &
Ki m 2014, 2016b, 2016d; Võ ế Xuân Vinh & Lê Th Kim ị
or no longer majority shareholders)
Trang 9Firstly, the study hypothesis relates to the impacts of stock transaction registration of the internal shareholders on price and trading volume:
Hypothesis 1a: The stock price increases due to buying transaction registration of the internal shareholders
Hypothesis 1b: The stock price decreases due to selling transaction registration of the internal shareholders
Hypothesis 2a: The trading volume increases due to the stock buying registration announcement
of the internal shareholders
Hypothesis 2b: The trading volume increases due to stock selling registration announcement of the internal shareholders
Secondly, the study hypothesis relates to the impacts of stock transaction registration of the stakeholders
Hypothesis 5a: The stock price increases when the information that the foreign investors become the majority shareholders is announced
Hypothesis 5b: The stock price decreases when the information that the foreign investors are no longer majority shareholders is announced
Hypothesis 6a: The trading volume increases when the foreign investors become the majority shareholders
Hypothesis 6b: The stock price increases when the foreign investors are no longer majority shareholders
Trang 10 Event window, estimate window and window after event
Three windows in the event framework used to study include: i) Event window is selected
to be 31 days, from 15th date (before the date of announcement 15 days) to +15th date (after the date of announcement 15 days) including 0 date (the event day), ii) Estimate window is 120 days from 16th date to 135th date, iii) Window after event is from +16th date to +30 date, 15 days in total
3.1.2.3. Measurement of investors’ reaction is shown through the stock price
Measurement of investors’ reaction is shown through the stock price and considered through the existence of cumulative normal return and abnormal return
Abnormal return (ARi,t)
According to Brown & Warner (1980), the abnormal return is the difference between actual return and expected return of the stock. In this study, AR is calculated as follows:
AR i,t = R i,t – E (Ri,t)
Trang 11 Cumulative Average Abnormal Return CAAR (t1, t2)
3.1.2.4. Measurement of investors’ reaction is shown through the trading volume
AVi,t = log () – E [log ()|Xi]3.1.2.5.Test methods
Intern
al shareholders
Foreig
n investors
Trang 12REGISTRATION ANNOUNCEMENT OF INTERNAL SHAREHOLDERS
4.1. The Investors’ reaction based on stock price and trading volume to the stock buying registration announcement of internal shareholders
The left results in Table 4.1 prove the existence of the abnormal return on the date of information announcement and two days later. Thus, the information implicated in the stock buying registration announcement of internal shareholders is good for the market, shown through that the market has positive response with this information, the stock price ends the downtrend and starts to increase since the date of stock buying registration announcement of internal shareholders. The stock price constantly decreases before the date of information announcement, that shows the internal shareholders’ behavior of buying stocks is an important strategy to stop the down impetus
of stocks in the market. Additionally, the market does not react to all information implicated on the date of announcement but continues to react on the following days, which shows that the stock market in Vietnam is not efficient in the semistrong form of the Efficient market hypothesis.
The investors’ reaction based on the abnormal trading volume to the stock buying registration announcement of the internal shareholders is shown at the right of Table 4.1. The results show that the trading volume increases on the date of announcement and the reaction of the stock price on the date of announcement, they indicate that the market has position reaction to the information of buying stocks of the internal shareholders through the increase in liquidity along with increase in stock price
Table 4.1: Test results of abnormal return and abnormal trading volume to the stock buying registration announcement of the internal shareholders
T
Abnorm
al return
Trang 13registration announcement of the internal shareholders with the different selling rate Results in Table 4.2 implicate that the information of stock buying of the internal shareholders, even low, prevents the decline in stock price and brings positive sign to the market. The trading volume and stock liquidity are improved significantly before, on and after the event day.
Table 4.2: Test results of abnormal return and abnormal trading volume to the stock selling registration announcement of the internal shareholders with small sale ratio.
Table 4.3: Test results of abnormal return and abnormal trading volume to the stock buying registration announcement of the internal shareholders with big sale ratio.
Trang 14The results in Table 4.4 indicate that the stock price constantly increases before the internal shareholders register to sell stocks. This implicates that the internal shareholders choose the time when the stock price in the market increase to register to sell The above identification is strengthened when the cumulative abnormal return before the announcement is positive with high rate and has statistic meaning at 1% (CAAR [15;1]:4.47%)
On the date of information announcement, the abnormal return is negative and continues to maintain on the following days. This leads to the fact that the cumulative abnormal return after the announcement has negative values (CAAR [0;15]: 1.1%; CAAR [0;30]: 1,73%) and has statistic meaning at 1%.
From above results, the information implicated in the stock selling registration announcement of the internal shareholders is a bad sign.
Table 4.4: Test results of abnormal return and abnormal trading volume to the stock selling registration announcement of the internal shareholders
Trang 15t returnmal Abnormal trading volume
It is possible to conclude that the information implicated in the stock selling registration announcement of the internal shareholders is bad information. Simultaneously, there is phenomena that the investors in the market imitate the internal shareholders to implement transactions. Because
of the asymmetric information, the selling registration of the internal shareholders creates the sign for the remaining investors in the market that the stock price is higher than the true value or the company has bad information about expectations of the company
4.4. The Investors’ reaction based on stock price and trading volume to the stock selling registration announcement of the internal shareholders with the different sale ratio. The results in Table 4.5 and Table 4.6 show that the investors’ reaction to the registration announcement of small and big sale ratio of the internal shareholders have the same. The stock price increases and exits the positive abnormal return before the date of information announcement; the stock price decreases right on this day.
Table 4.5: Test results of abnormal return and abnormal trading volume to the stock selling registration announcement of the internal shareholders with less selling rate.
Trang 16Abnorm
al return
Trang 17The results indicate that the information implicated in the stock buying registration announcement of the internal shareholders is considered to be the good information for the market and the internal shareholders buy stocks as an important strategy to stop the downtrend of stocks in the market On the contrary, the information implicated in the stock selling registration announcement of the internal shareholders is considered as bad information for the market. The stock price decreases and forms the downtrend on the date of announcement of stock selling registration of the internal shareholders, the trading volume increases suddenly on the days around the event day. Besides, the study’s results show there is phenomena that the investors in the market imitate the internal shareholders to implement transactions. The results further support the theory of the asymmetric and the signaling theory.