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VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES NGUYEN THI KHUYEN DEVELOPING ARGRICULTURE OF RED RIVER DELTA COASTAL AREA IN THE CONDITION OF CLIMATE CHANGE Major: Economic Management Code: 34 04 10 ABSTRACT OF ECONOMIC DOCTORIAL THESIS Ha Noi, 2019 The thesis is completed at: Graduate Academy of Social sciences Supervisor: Assoc.Prof, Ph.D Nguyen Danh Son Ph.D Tran Minh Yen Referee 1: Prof, Ph.D Do Duc Binh Referee 2: Assoc.Prof, Ph.D Pham Bao Duong Referee 3: Assoc.Prof, Ph.D Hoang Van Hai The thesis is protected in front of Board of Doctoral Thesis Examination, organized at .at … hour … date … month… year 2019 The thesis can be found at: - Institute of Social Scicences Information - National library of Viet Nam INTRODUCTION The neccesity of thesis Agricultural development means to ensure for traditional role of agriculture which is active in national food security, and in charge of new roles as: supplying material for the development of processing industry, creating goods to meet domestic and international demand, improving foreign currency income from exporting agricultural products, contributing a part of capital to socio – economic development; protecting ecological environment; advertising picture and enhancing the position of Vietnam to the world State management on economy with agricultural development is considered to be currently necessary demand In Vietnam, agriculture is much dependent economy on natural conditions State management to agricultural development aims at igniting potential, developing production, consuming agricultural products as well as coping with climate change effectively Overview of researches related to development and management of agricultural development (represented at chapter of the the thesis) shows that the researches mainly focus on management of agricultural development in general Subject of state management about economy to agricultural development in the condition of climate change is limited Besides, climate change occurs new matters in agricultural development requesting agricultural development to be changed accordingly, that status apprears new matters to be done research clearly This is the main reason for researchers to choose subject “Developing agriculture Red River Delta coastal area in the condition of climate change” for doctorial thesis of economic management with the desire of contributing to make clear and solve issues of state management attaching with impact condition of climate change in agricultural development in coastal areas of Red River Delta Due to the region of doing research is area of coastline (including coastline districts, communes) so the management level here is district, of course, they are considered in management relationship in the common management system of the nation: Upon industry, it is management system of agriculture industry and upon territory, it is local management system (province, region/subregion) Purpose and duties of researching of the thesis 2.1 Purpose of the research General purpose: Doing research agricultural development under economic state management at district level in coastal areas of Red River Delta in the condition of climate change to make clear the status and propose some solution, suggestion to complete management of agricultural development of Red River Delta coastal area Specific purpose of the research is to answer following questions: (i) What does climate change impact to agricultural development in coastal area of Red River Delta? What must the necessity of state management about economy with agricultural development change, adjust to be suitable? (ii) How about the status of state management about economy to agricultural development of Red River Delta coastal area? (iii) Which advantage, difficulty, chance and challengy management of agricultural development in the condition of climate change stand by? (iv) What solution to make use of, promote the favorable and recover, overcome difficulty, challengy in state management about economy to agricultural development of Red River Delta coastal area in the condition of climate change? 2.2 Duty of researching - Overview of researching related to the title, pointing out achieved result, issues have not been unified, and spaces have not been researched On that basis, the thesis chooses research content to be suitable and meaningful - Systematizing the theoretical basis and factuality about state management to agricultural development in the condition of climate change to be basis for analyzing the status as well as solution proposal - Analyzing, evaluating the status of managing agricultural development of Red River Delta coastal area and determining issues in state management about economy to agricultural development in the condition of climate change - Proposing point of view, orientation, solution and suggestion for state management about economy to agricultural development of Red River Delta coastal area in the condtion of climate change Object and scope of research of the thesis 3.1 Object of research Research object of the thesis is developing agriculture of Red River Delta coastal area in the condition of climate change under the view of state management at district level 3.2 Research scope Scope on content: Name of the thesis is “developing agriculture of Red River Delta coastal area in the condition of climate change”, in which and as mentioned above, agricultural development is considered under view of state management about district economy, so agricultural development is considered to be result of management as relation cause – result State management at district level, upon current decentralizaiton in our country is the place which carries out development policies of government (Government, ministries, and provinces), so state management at district level is place of carrying out policies of development This implementation includes many parties in relation, in which main party here is district state management with positive role of orienting, taking the initiative, creating condition and linking, combining with other related parties (farmer, economic organization, political organization, social organization…) in mobilizing development resources (internal, external resources) to get targets of development (herely sustainably agricultural development in the condition of climate change) Scope about space: The thesis limits the research about coastline districts belonging to Red River Delta coastal area including three provinces Thai Binh, Nam Dinh and Ninh Binh including: Thai Thuy, Tien Hai (Thai Binh), Hai Hau, Giao Thuy, Nghia Hung (Nam Dinh), Kim Son (Ninh Binh) with coastal agriculture features and are suffering strong impact of climate change Scope about time: The thesis make survey agricultural development of researched region from 2010 to 2018 In which, surveying on some secondary data were sumarized from 2010 to 2017, making survey primary data was carried out in 2018 Due to the thesis is determined to belong to major of economic management so the concept “development” is considered to be “gift” created by “human” is management and concept (state management about economy to agricultural development” is summarized “Management of agricultural development” throughout the thesis According to methodology and research method of the thesis 4.1 Methodology, approach of the thesis The thesis uses common methodology of social science and management science, especially is dialectical relation between management subject and management object as cause – result relation in development management The thesis approaches upon two ways: top down and bottom up 4.2 Research method of the thesis The thesis is researched by method: Description statistic Method of comparative research and logic method Method of analysis and comprehension Investigation method by questionaire Method of analyzing strong and weak points New contribution about science of the thesis (1) Systematizing and developing theoretical basis about agricultural development of coastal area with the role of district authority in the circumstance of new development is the impact of climate change Systematizing, building content and criteria of evaluating agricultural development management in the condition of climate change (2) The thesis supplies factual evidence, proof as well as issues in state management of district level to agricultural development, from analyzing and evaluating the reality of agricultural development under teh impact of climate change (3) On the basis of analyzing and predicting new circumstance of the thesis to propose solution for developing agriculture of Red River Delta coastal area in the condition of climate change under management of district authority The thesis can be useful reference for managers to develop in the locals of Red River Delta coastal area as well as other locals in our country Theoretical meaning and the reality of the thesis 6.1 Meaning about theory Research result of the thesis contributes to supplement theoretical basis for agricultural development management of district authority in the condition of climate change Research result supplies theoretical basis for researches about agricultural development of district authority in other locals 6.2 Meaning about reality Suggestion and solution of the thesis are high value of referent document for authorities of districts and other levels in developing agriculture of Red River Delta coastal area and other agricultural districts with the same condition in all over the country The structure of the thesis Chapter Overview of research situation related to the title of the thesis Chapter Theoretical basis, reality about coastal agriculture development in the condition of climate change Chapter The status of developing agriculture in Red River Delta coastal are in the condition of climate change Chapter Point of view, target and solution of developing agriculture in Red River Delta coastal area CHAPTER OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH SITUATION RELATED TO THE TITLE OF THE THESIS 1.1 Researches about state management to coastal agriculture development 1.1.1 Researches about state management to agricultural development of all over country and provinces Overview result of research title about state management about economy to agricultural development in all over the country and provinces shows that: The researches agree that state management about economy is necessary for currently agricultural development Each research contributes at a certain aspect in state management about economy to agricultural development Under decentralization of government about economy: There are researches mentioned to state management with agricultural development in general, there is research focusing on explaining state management to agricultural development in one province From view of impacted period: There is research considering period of building policies, creating environment, orienting development, some others analyze process of organizing and implementing advocates, policies of developing agriculture, some researches focus on inspecting, evaluating process of implementing agricultural development Under view of content of agricultural development: some researches explain state management with human of state management about economy, with agricultural land, with agricultural good export, with shifting agricultural economy structure 1.1.2 Researches about state management to coastal agriculture development Process of surveying previous research result shows that researching state management districtly with agricultural development is rare Book of state management about economy of people’s committee of district, issues and solution (specialized book) of author Chu Tien Quang (2010) has systematized and built theoretical basis of state management about economy of people’s committee of district The author analyzes the real state of state management about economy of people’s committee of district, making survey the reality of state management about economy of people’s committee of Lam Thao and Nam Sach Districts On that basis, the research propose point of view and solution to complete state management about economy of people’s committee of district However, the research directly deepens into relationship between people’s committee of district with all industries and sectors in the economy The research does not deeply focus on district management with agricultural development in the relation with climate change 1.2 Researches about impact of climate change to state management about agricultural development Researches show that climate change has been occuring strongly, impacted to many fields, overall to agricultural production Some researches estimate impact of some locals, regions all over the country Strong impact of climate change to agricultural development becomes more and more clear, require managers of agricultural development to have change in orientation, creating environment, good support for promoting agricultural development to cope with climate change However, some researches focus on analyzing relationship between climate change and management of agricultural development are not much available, especially to Red River Delta coastal area So, this is the space for the thesis to focus on researching 1.3 Conclusion and issues need to keep researching 1.3.1 Conclusion Overview of researches related to development and agricultural development managemen show that there is much concern to these fields Research result shows at some aspects as below: Firstly, analyzing theoretical basis, reality, real state of agricultural development management in Vietnam Analyzing relationship between state management about economy with developing agricultural goods, international integration, finding out existing issues to propose some suggestion, solution for agricultural development at national level Secondly, some researches focus on explaining one content, aspect, function, one stage of state management about economy with agricultural development Some researches analyze one or some factors affected state management to agricultural development as human resources, integration, market… Focusing on analyzing the real state of separate aspect, content and factor to propose suggestion for each own field Thirdly, some researches focus on building theoretical basis about provincial or regional agriculture development Finding out the reality of relationship between agricultural development management of provincial authority with agricultural development On that basis to propose suggestion, solution for agricultural development by improving effectiveness of management of provincial authority to agricultural development Fourthly, some researches orient to analyze relationship between climate changes with agricultural development Pointing out climate change has been changing survival conditions of agricultural development Proposing common solutions to develop agriculture in the condition of climate change Throughoutly, researches of state management about economy to coastal agriculture development in the condition of climate change impact is not much available, especially in coastal area of Red River Delta becomes clearly in some recent years Red River Delta in our country is an area impacted by climate change day by day with more and more clear expression as the growth of frequency, intension of severe weather, climate (drought, flood, storm, cold, cyclone, hot…) as well as the increasing of seawater, inspite of slow, it starts to have the phenomena of saline instrusion, much impacting to production and life of residents, especially for agricultural production Fifthly, almost researches focus on analyzing, explaining management of agricultural development upon country and provincial scope Research about managing agricultural development at district level with agricultural development is limited Because, the role of district authority in implementing advocates and policies of new agriculture development express clearly in recent years This is management grade with condition to be closed to reality of agricultural development and be direct with the most quick and right time orientation, support, adjust and fit to the reality Besides, the development of climate change impacts to local, residents and authority shall be ones who understand the most For Red River Delta, subject of managing agricultural development in general is much researched but state management about economy to agricultural development in the condition of climate change is limited With not less issues, even new issues related to agricultural development management in the condition of climate change in Red River Delta need to keep researching In the circumstance of change, operation condition of management object has changes, management in which of state management about economy to agricultural development must change accordingly to solve arising problem State management about economy with agricultural development considering at district level all over the country and Red River Delta coastal area is not much concerned to be researched 1.3.2 Issues need to be researched On the basis of the remaining research spaces, there shall appear some issues need to be researched and make clear as below: Firstly, relationship between climate change with agricultural development in coastal area of Red River Delta in the recent time Secondly, state management about economy with agricultural development must change, adjust to be suitable with change of requirement of agricultural development to be adaptable with climate change Thirdly, finding out issues of state management about economy to agricultural development in the coastal area of Red River Delta in the condition of climate change Fourthly, overview the advantages, disadvantages, challengies in state management about economy to agricultural development in coastal area of Red River Delta in the condition of climate change Fourthly, building some suggestions, solution to make use, promote advantages and recover, overcome disadvantages, challengies in state management about economy to agricultural development in coastal area of Red River Delta in the condition of climate change The above research spaces are fulfilled in research logic of the thesis In which, clear determination of state management about economy of district authority is the main axis and cause, agricultural development coping with climate change is result development; household economic development; farming development; cooperative economy of agriculture, forestry, fishery, salty attaching with sectors, trade village in the countryside and implementing some duties, rights according to the authorization of people’s committee of district and according to regulation of law, ensuring the management unification of industry, fields of working in the local 2.1.3 Impact of climate change to managemen of agricultural development Climate change asks for agricultural developemnt managers to alternate advocates and policies with strenthening ability of coping with climate change via improving capacity of being adaptable with climate change of subjects but reduce slightly impact of climate change to agricultural production Support from agricultural development managers aim at increasing ability of being adaptable as building infrastructure to cope with climate change (embankment, irrigation system, taking care of, controlling insect, saline prevention, ), season management, increasing irrigation, controlling harmful insects; supporting production convert, seed convert, tree and animal convert, supporting to research technical and scientific application in production, supporting to make propaganda, educate to improve awareness of community Support groups of agricultural development management to reduce climate change as: supporting to build and deploy to apply agricultural cultivation technicque measures to increase output, reduce greenhouse effect, improve management and field irrigation 2.1.4 Content of state management about economy to agricultural development attaching with specifiation of coastal area in the condition of climate change State management on economy to agricultural development is implemented basing on below contents: Orientation, creating environment of developing agriculture to cope with climate change; organizing and executing process of developing agriculture to cope with climate change; supporting agricultural development to cope with climate change; Keeping following, supervising, inspecting agricultural economy activities to cope with climate change 2.1.5 Factors influencing to manage agricultural development of coastal area 10 Group of subjective factors influencing to agricultural development including: natural condition and socio – economic conditions Group of objective factors including: Factors belonging to subject of management, factors belonging to object of management and factors belonging to programs, policies of supporting agricultural development coping with climate change 2.1.6 Criteria of estimating management of coastal agriculture development in the condition of climate change Managing agricultural development in coastal area of Red River Delta is estimated upon two main groups of criteria: Firstly, criteria group of estimating process of managing coastal agriculture development in the condition of climate change including: ability of orienting agricultural development coping with climate change; Completing organization of management and system of production subject in agricultural business; Implementing advocates of supporting agricultural development coping with climate change; Inspecting and adjusting process of agricultural development coping with climate change Secondly, criteria group of reflecting result of process of managing coastal agricultural development in the condition of climate change including: Changing in awareness of agricultural development in the condition of climate change of management subject and object of management in Red River Delta; The growth of agriculture in coastal area of Red River Delta; The shifting of agricultural structure of Red River Delta coastal area; The development of society and environment protection in the Red River Delta coastal area 2.2 Experience of managing agricultural development of some locals and lesson for Red River Delta coastal area On the basis of surveying experience of managing agricultural development of some nations as Holland, Israen, Thailand and some locals in the country: Bac Lieu, Kien Giang, the research take out some lessons for coastal area of Red river delta as: Firstly, managing at district level must strengthen to make propaganda, educate, communicate to improve the awareness of agricultural development, climate change and impact of climate change to agricultural development; Secondly, management authority at district level on agricultural developement needs to implement well planning of agricultural ecology areas on the basis of climate change trend; Thirdly, district managers must consider to 11 suggest higher managers to assisst for research strengthening, technological and scientific application in agricultural production to cope with climate change; Thirdly, focusing on agricultural production on large scale to have resource of applying science and technology, shifting production to be adaptable with climate change; Fourthly, building type of suitably agricultural production; Fifthly, managers at district level must implement well advocates and policies of assissting information, implementing well policy of strengthening the connection to develop chain of agricultural goods value, developing agriculture of goods; Sixthly, management at district level must implement well programs of training to improve qualification of farmers; Seventhly, management at district level combines well with higher levels to improve the role government in supporting agricultural development CHAPTER THE REALITY OF DEVELOPING AGRICULTURE IN THE COASTAL AREA OF RED RIVER DELTA IN THE CONDITION OF CLIMATE CHANGE 3.1 Condition of nature, socio – economy affect to manage agricultural development in coastal area of Red river delta 3.2.1 Natural condition Managing agricultural development needs to base on condition of land, land environment, water environment to orient, support and inspect, adjust process of management to be suitable 3.2.2 Socio – economy condition Managing agricultural development needs to base on conditions as infrastructure of transport, telecommunication; condition of economic structure and labor force structure presently to give out solutions of management to promote agricultural development 3.2.3 Policies of developing agriculture in the coastal area of Red river delta Policies of agricultural development is tool, basis for state management at district level to deploy activities of management at local 3.2 The reality of managing agricultural development in the coastal area of Red river delta 3.2.1 The reality of process of managing coastal agricultural development in the condition of climate change 12 3.2.1.1 Ability of orienting agricultural development coping with climate change The result of taking idea about ability of orienting agricultural development coping with climate change of authorities at district level from managers Major of ideas think that planning, plan of developing agriculture of authorities at district level taking the basis to be planning, plan of higher level (100%), taking the factual condition of soil climate (78%0 Major of ideas think that quality of good plan, planning express at the criteria: Planning the plan which is able to orient for agricultural development coping with climate change (90%), ability of becoming common voice for local agriculture development is (62%) Less ideas choose local authority is active to mobilize the resource (6%), ability of being active in method of carrying out plan and planning (28%) The result taken from 100 management objects, major of them choose sectors, objects of production basing on family tradition (78%); few people choose basing on orientation of local authorities (5%) 3.2.1.2 Completing organization of management and system of agricultural production subject For management subject, some ideas say that quantity of officers are lack to carry out dute of management (44%), qualification of management is equal to duty (56%), Assignment and combination between departments is good (44%) For management object, few understand the advocates, policies of developing agriculture (34%), ability of being active to deploy policy (34%), ability of being active, creative to propose ideal for advocate, policy of developing agriculture (28%), ability of combining between management subject and management object is (34%) 3.2.1.3 Implementing advocates of supporting agricultural development coping with climate change About supporting to plan agricultural development coping with climate change, major of ideas management subject (90%) and less management objects (15%) say that supporting plays an important role 47% management objects satisfy, 53% have not got any ideas about supporting of district management to agricultural development in the condition of climate change About supporting to implement plan of seasons in agricultural development, all managers (100%) and major (78%) management objects say that support plays an important role Major of objects satisfy with support from 13 state management at district level in this issue (78%) About land focal support, major of ideas of management subjects (87%) and management objects (66%) choosing support plays an important role Major of management objects (77%) satisfy with land focal support in the program of gathering field and change lot Major of managers (90%) and few management objects (33%) highly estimate the importance of supporting technological and scientific application and mordern process of production in agriculture Major (69%) management objects hover about this support Result of surveying idea about role of state management at district level to agricultural development show that, there are 53% managers and 42% residents think that support from state management play important role, equal to 34% and 28% without any ideas, 12% and 30% have ideas of unimportant support Survey result about the importance of support in developing agricultural link show that, there are 46% managers and 41% residents say the support plays important role; equal to 31% and 47% without any ideas; 22% and 12% say that it is not important About satisfaction of residents about supporting link development, statistic survey result show that 36% satisfy, 60% without any ideas, 4% unsatisfy Major of ideas wish to have support from state management, espefically: 92% ideas wish to be predicted clearly trend of weather change, help production get more effectively 95% ideas wish to get support of orienting to shift trees, animal to be suitable 56% ideas say that focal support to open more area of production is necessary 87% ideas point out the necessary of supporting technology application of modern production 56% ideas wish to get support of orienting for developing agricultural production upon the model of enterprise, farm 67% wish to get support for developing link with facilities which research seed/animal to be suitable 95% wish to support promotion to open market for agricultural products 87% wish to get support to close management for food safety and build brand of agricultural products 3.2.1.4 Inspecting and adjusting process of developing agriculture coping with climate change About the basis of inspecting, major of ideas think that inspecting process of developing agriculture coping with climate change is implemented basing on plan (90%); carrying out upon the suggestion (100%); According to abnormal 14 occurs of weather, climate (100%) This result shows that inspection is carriedout right time to prevent with climate change in agriculture development About purpose of inspection, major of ideas agree with purpose of inspection: discovering violation (87%); Inspection to speed up, remind the implement ation of carrying out target (100%); orientng agriculture development to be adaptable with climate change (100%); Discovering difficulty, supporting the development (56%) About content of inspection, major of idea choose content of inspection is implementation of planning (87%); Discovering many violation about pesticide and agriculture material (97%); Inspecting hygiene and safety of food (87%) About main violations, planning violation (21%); Violating about pesticide and agriculture material (97%); violation of hygiene and safety of food (46%) Measures have been carried out to adjust process of development: and there are almost 100% agreement Result of survey show that function of inspection in state management about agriculture development coping with climate change in the coastal area of Red river delta is carried out well, less violation, without any serious violation However, survey result also shows that some ideas think that inspection to discover and support difficulty (56%) is low rate, meanwhile this is important purpose of current inspection 3.2.2 Result of managing coastal agriculture development in the condition of climate change in the condition of 3.2.2.1 Aware reality of agriculture development in the condition of climate change of management subject and management object in the coastal area of Red river delta Almost agriculture production subjects are aware of agriculture development upon short meaning say that agriculture development mainly focus on increasing output, accounting for 65% ideas People with full understanding about agriculture developemnt upon large meaning accounting for 19% This reality shows that acknowledge about agricultural goods, modern agriculture in agriculture production subjects in the coastal area of Red river delta is limited In order to advocate agriculture developemnt upon modern direction, goods production, sticking out large markets needs to enhance the awareness of subjects about this issue Being aware of expression of climate change, major of management objects (78%) choose hot weather; 68% choose cold weather; 23% choose saline 15 intrusion, flood tide 3.2.2.2 The reality of agriculture growth in the coastal area of Red river delta Positive growth and higher than growth of all the country about agriculture In 2010 is 4,06 until 2017 is 3,77% Diagram 3.1: Growth speed of agriculture in the coastal area of Red river delta (Source: Comprehensing socio – economy report of districts period 2010 – 2017 3.2.2.3 The reality of shifting agricultural structure in the coastal area of Red river delta Diagrams 3.9 and 3.10 overview internal structure in the coastal area of Red river delta of districts show that proportion of production value in farming decreases from 58,72% in 2010 down 49.8% in 2017 Proportion of production value in animal raising increases from 38,37% in 2010 upto 42,08% in 2017 and agriculture service increase from 2,91% in 2010 upto 8,12% in 2017 Diagram 3.9: Agricultural structure in the coastal area of Red river delta in 2010 16 Diagram 3.10: Agricultural structure in the coastal area of Red river delta in 2017 3.2.2.4 The reality of developing society and protecting environment in the coastal area of Red river delta Average per capital income of residents in the coastal are of Red river delta period 2010 and 2017 has trend of constant increase Diagram 3.11: The average per capital income in the coastal area of Red river delta period 2010 -2017 upon current price Source: Comprehensing annual statistic: Socio – economic Report yearly of coastal area of Red river delta districts Rate of poor household reduces from 8.3% in 2010 down 2,6% in 2017, lower than rate of countryside is 10,8%, all the country is 7,9% in 2017 There are around 20% packages, bottles of pesticide, growth pill, herbicide after using is gathered, buried The remaing 80% are threwn out on the fields, lakes, coastline after using 20% are buried cursorily the redundance of toxic is easy to sissipate into environment 95% packages containing fertilizer, seed are reused to contain agriculture products after harvesting being the cause of danger of poison for agriculture products, reducing agriculture value Around 90% remaining hauler, trees, roots after harvesting are treated by burn causing dust, polluting the air seriously The new forest planting area reduces during period 2010 to 2017 3.3 Estimating management of agriculture development in the coastal of Red river delta 3.3.1 Achieved result 3.3.1.1 About process of developing agriculture development in the condition of climate change Managing agriculture development plays role of orientation in agriculture 17 development in the condition of climate change Organizing management system of agriculture development is fairly completed, good operation mechanism to carry out management targets Basis of managing agriculture development has positively supported for management objects of agriculture development in the condition of climate change Inspection is carried out regularly, constantly and effectively to support for agriculture development 3.3.1.2 Result of process of managing coastal agriculture development in the condition of climate change Regularly economic growth contributes positively for common economic growth of the local Agriculture proportion in GDP reduces, structure of agriculture internal industry shifts upon positive direction Enlarging consumption market and agriculture products export The average per capital income has trend of increasing and higher than average of all country, rate of poor household reduces and lower than average level of the country 3.3.2 Existence, limit and cause 3.3.2.1 About the process of managing agriculture development in the condition of climate change Management objects are not active in building and implementing agriculture development Ability of orienting agriculture development is not clear Team of management is lack of quantity (compared to duty), management object of receipt capacity and policy implementation is not good Supporting agriculture development in the condition of climate change existing some limit on shifting business production, in mastering abnormal of climate change, difficulty in land concentration, limit in supporting technological application, openning high tech agriculture market, supporting development of economic type in agriculture New ínpection focuses on discovering violaiton, not clear the purpose of orientation, supporting agriculture development 3.3.2.2 About result of managing agriculture development in the condition of climate change Growth speed of agriculture reduces slightly yearly, not compatible with the population growth The growth mainly takes place upon the width Shifting structure is slow The average per capital income is not high Waste from agriculture production is not gathered and solved upon safe process New forest 18 planting area is not much, quantity of new forest planting exists, develops is not much 3.3.2.3 Causes of limit Climate change takes place quickly and strongly, management team is not updated knowledge regularly, lack of activeness and creation in deploying policies, lack of motivation in leading and managing Plan, advocate and policy are imposed, inflexible and rigid in adjustment CHAPTER POINT OF VIEW, TARGET AND SOLUTION OF AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE COASTAL AREA OF RED RIVER DELTA 4.1 Predicting circumstance, chance and challengy with coastal agriculture development management of Red river delta 4.1.1 New circumstance and requirement with managing coastal agriculture development 4.1.1.1 International circumstance Economic globalization; the growth of demand and world food crisis; Quick development of technical science, especially the outcome of industrial renovation 4.0 are circumstances to create chances, and challengy for agriculture development in the condition of climate change in Vietnam in general and coastal area of Red river delta in particular 4.1.1.2 Domestic circumstance Economy of Vietnam has integrated deeply and largely into regional and world economy Institution of market economy with the orientation of socialist republic firstly is built Vietnam agriculture reaches certain achievements after 30 years of innovation 4.1.2 Predicting impact of climate change to agriculture developemnt and request to agriculture development managers Temperature in the coastal area of Red river delta increases constantly in the next coming time Raining volumne in the coastal area of Red river delta has trend of increasing in XXI century Monsoon and some extreme climate phenomena takes place very complicatedly in the coastal area of Red river delta Sea level in the coastal area of Red river delta has trend of increasing and being in danger of flood 19 4.1.3 Analyzing strong, weak points and chance, challengy with managing agriculture development in the coastal area of Red river delta New circumstance of the world and domestic, especially is the circumstance of climate change just create the chance, and challengy with agriculture development and managing coastal agriculture development in Red river delta Model of analyzing strong and weak points, chance and challengy is basis for planning and implementing policies of coastal agriculture development in the condition of climate change 4.2 Point of view, target of managing coastal agriculture development of Red river delta in the condition of climate change 4.2.1 Point of view of developing agriculture into the coastal area of Red river delta in the condition of climate change Firstly, respecting objective rule, developing goods economy; Secondly, resecpting natural rules, being suitable with factual condition Thirdly, applying technology and science is basic way to improve productivity Quality and value of agriculture products, economic effectiveness in the condition of climate change Fourthly, climate change is challengy and chance to coastal agriculture development of Red river delta, in which challengy and chance can be metabolism together 4.2.2 View of managing coastal agriculture development of Red river delta in the condition of climate change Firstly, respecting objective rule with impact in management as: economic rule, organization rule, psychological rule and natural rule, climate and weather Secondly, ensuring basic principles in state management on economy Managing coastal agriculture development of Red river delta respects some basic principles as below: unifying political and social leading; concentrating democracy; harmony combination with benefits; savings, effectiveness 4.2.3 Target of managing coastal agriculture development in the condition of climate change 4.2.2.1 General target Upto 2030 raise coastal agriculture to develop sustainably, economic growth, shifting economic structure, social development, invironment protection, developing coastal protection forest 4.2.2.2 Specific target 20 Improving understanding of management team at district level and residents about agriculture development in the condition of climate change Improving effectiveness in estimating current situation of climate change, taking it as the basis of planing policy Improving qualification and skill of being adaptable to climate change for managers and residents in agriculture development Agriculture economic growth reaches to 5% Agriculture proportion reduces down 10% in 2030 The average per capital income and living level of residents in the region reach quite good level 4.3 Solutions, suggestion to develop coastal agriculture of Red river delta in the condition of climate change 4.3.1 Group of solution to managers of developing coastal agriculture of Red river delta On the basis of limits and new circumstance require to promote agriculture development, it is necessary to improve the qualification of managers by some solutions as: Firstly, creating mechanism of program, time, and expense for managers at district level to have chance to improve their qualification Secondly, applying flexibly type of income to improve attractive income and keep high- qualified managers to contribute to agriculture development in the region Thirdly, creating more active mechanism in assigning duty, exciting the creation of mangers to complete their duty Fourthly, creating good environment for officers to study, work and dedicate for local agriculture development coping with climate change Fifthly, assigning officers to visit models of managing agriculture development coping with climate change successfully in domestic and external Sixthly, improving awareness of management subjects on planning ecological area, seasonal plan, help them have correct consultance for higher managers to make policy Seventhly, creating good legal corridor for separating right of owing land sothat managers at district level have basis to carry out process of concentrating convenient land; Eighthly, managers at district level strenthen to support residents to approach, apply science and technology in agriculture development; Ninethly, managers at district level support residents to shift production from small and rag production to new and modern models 4.3.2 Group of solution to coastal agriculture production subjects of Red river delta Group of management objects are subjects of production, agriculture business in the coastal area of Red river delta, with limited analysis, to improve 21 effectiveness of management in coastal agriculture development in the condition of climate change needs to have below solutions: Firstly, organizing class to improve knowledge for residents about agriculture development upon large meaning about climate change Secondly, supplying full, clear and closed information with residents about advocates, policies of agriculture development Thirdly, supporting residents to approach, apply policies into their business production activities; Fifthly, help residents actively send reply about implementing advocate and policy to have efffective support and adjustment Sixthly, strengthening media on policy for residents to penetrate policies 4.3.3 Recommending with state management to develop agriculture at central level About overall planning of agriculture development of Red river delat coastal area to be adaptable to climate change Innovation, completion of mechanism, policy of concentrating resources, transforming science and technology application, training human resources, expanding market for agricultural development of Red river delat coastal area Diversification forms of economic organization in developing coastal agricuture of Red river delta Building mechanism of coordinating to promote maximum available comparation advantages during process of climate change of Red river delta coastal area Mobilizing the participation of related parties in developing coastal agriculture of Red river delta coping with climate change CONCLUSION Purpose of the thesis is to make clear the real state and proposing some solutions, recommendations to complete the management of coastal agriculture development of Red river delta On the basis of systematizing, building theoretical basis, the thesis points out the research of managing agriculture development of Red river delta coastal area in the confdition of climate change which is carried out upon impacted period of state management about economy to agriculture development at district level Researching to estimate coastal agricultural development management under view of management process and management result with criteria about growth, shift of agricultural economic structure, social 22 development, protecting ecological environment of countryside agriculture Basing on theory frame built, the thesis has collected date, survey investigation, information collection, Analyzing, comprehensing information to take the achievement, limit in managing agricultural development of Red river delta coastal area Finding out the causes of limit and missing to be basis for building solution, recommendation to complete management of agricultural development in the condition of climate change Research result shows that (i) Climate change has been strongly impacted to agricultural development of Red river delta coastal area by creating change on climate, soil, water resource serving agricultural production of Red river delta coastal area From that, management of agricultural development needs to change orientation of development upon planning, building organization, support, inspecting, adjusting agricultural development upon direction of max promoting new comparasion advantages caused by climate change Limit, reducing negative impact from climate change to agriculture development (ii) The reality of process of managing agricultural development of Red river delta coastal area, management subjects have carried out well their duty Growth, shifting economic structure, social development, protecting ecological environment have achieved certain success However, limit is existing during process and result of agricultural development Planning, plan of development of agricultural development at district grade is still passive, dependant on higher managers, it causes the flexibility in adjusting is not high to be adaptable to climate change Team of managers is missing members and scientific knowledge in managing agricultural development Managers almost are low qualification, knowledge on modern agriculture development is not full, is not aware of the importance and necessity to closely combine with management subjects in agricultural development Some support for agricultural development not express its role in the process of agriculture development as supporting on developing science and technology application, developing link Function of inspection, adjustment are inclining to detect and handle violation much more than orientation, support to complete agricultural development in the condition of climate change (iii) Managing agricultural development in Red river delta coastal area is standing front of advantages of advocate and policy, chance about market, chance of applying modern science and technology achievements, chance of 23 mobilizing capital and resources for development, chance of new comparasion advantages caused by climate change The advantages create chance for coastal agriculture development in shifting production, quick development, carrying out outlined targets Besides, managing agriculture development of Red river delta coastal area is standing front of difficulty and challengy about competition, capacity of expanding market, about policy mechanism for shifting production, land concentration, capital for agricultural development, abnormal development of climate, thin management force on quantity, lack of activeness in management (iv) In order to promote the advantages and recover, overcome the difficulty, challengy in state management on economy to developing agriculture of Red river delta coastal area in the condition of climate change need to comply rules, principles, be closed to targets and carry out synchronously solutions of recommendation to management subjects, management objects at district grade and senior 24 ... Besides, climate change occurs new matters in agricultural development requesting agricultural development to be changed accordingly, that status apprears new matters to be done research clearly... committee of district, issues and solution (specialized book) of author Chu Tien Quang (2010) has systematized and built theoretical basis of state management about economy of people’s committee... state management about economy of people’s committee of district, making survey the reality of state management about economy of people’s committee of Lam Thao and Nam Sach Districts On that