Thông tin tài liệu
1 INTRODUCTION The necessary of research In the latest years, banking Vietnam has had outstanding and breakthrough advances together with the international integration Acceding WTO, becoming a member of ASEAN, joining in Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership – CPTPP has opened chances for banking Vietnam, especially opening banking sector in 2011 brought remarkable changes such as helping domestic banking to adopt modern banking technologies, restructuring banking management roles through the participation of foreign strategic partners, specialization and diversification for banking services… The competition is shown more clearly especially in commercial banks; this competitive pressure comes not only from domestic commercial banks but also from foreign banks and non – bank financial institutions, and other financial institutions However, the reality shows that operational efficiency of credit institutions in general and commercial banks in Vietnam in particular in recent years is not high According to the report of the banking industry in 2016, the return on assets of the whole system was only 0.58%, of which state-owned commercial banks was 0.61%, join stock commercial banks only reached 0.39% and joint-venture commercial banks reached 0.8% The specific characteristic of the banking industry is the high total capital and debt – to – total capital ratio, which leads to the selection of financial structure to fit capital demand and also ensure the level of risk under control, and bring high efficiency to banking, all of these are becoming an especially important issue In the period of the economy with a high inflation rate, bid rate must increase according to the rise of inflation, mobilized capital is numerous, the scale of capital using also increases but whether the operational efficiency of banking increases or not: in other words, is the cost of return on total assets higher than the interest rate payments? Conversely, in the last few years, the inflation rate was low, bid rate decreased or interest rate payments decreased because mobilized capital declined but the rate of return was still not high Therefore, what is the main reason for the decrease in the operational efficiency of commercial banks? Does the scale of capital, debt ratio affect to the operational efficiency of commercial banks? Among the factors affecting the operational efficiency of economic organizations, there is a factor that has been studied in many research projects in the world, which is the financial structure Financial structure is one of the most important aspects of a financial institution's financial decision Brounen & Eichholtz, (2001) argue that a suitable financial decision of a financial institution is one of the most puzzling aspects of modern corporate finance According to Watson and Head, (2007) the financial structure of an economic organization includes a mixture of debt and equity, financial structure decisions are very important for any economic organization due to the fact that managers have a responsibility to ensure that the benefits to shareholders are maximized and also because these decisions have great effects on the competitiveness of organizations Decisions on debt – to – capital ratio are considered a strategy for manager because these ones decide on future direction and long – term effects Deciding the financial structure directly affects to the profitability of organizations, this makes it an important decision and cannot be overlooked in corporate finance Although banks are different from other economic organizations, they still face challenges, similar to financial structure options will minimize capital costs and increase operational efficiency as in economic organizations The main goal of the bank is to be profitable, however, the bank's profitability is very important not only for interested parties (shareholders, managers, employees, customers), but also for the entire economy Therefore, studying how financial structure decisions affect the operational efficiency of banks is a particular concerned issue of economists around the world In terms of non-financial sector in the world, there are many studies on the relationship between financial structure and operational efficiency and in the terms of finance, empiric evidences from studies about banks around the world have contradictory views: some studies have found a negative relationship between leverage and profitability in banks (Rajan and Zingalas, 1995; Titman and Wessels, 1988 ), meanwhile Taub (1975), through regression analysis has found a positive relationship between debt and profit, in addition, a study of (Abor, 2005) also found a strong positive relationship between Total debt and profits, therefore, the results of the above studies show that the discussion of the relationship between financial structure and operational efficiency is still ongoing In Vietnam, studies on the relationship and impact between financial structure and operational efficiency are not many, especially research on the financial structure of commercial banks Therefore, studying the impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks when Vietnamese banks are in the process of implementing the restructuring plan of the government and State banks to operate safely and effectively become necessary and especially meaningful, because of these reasons, the author decided to study the topic "Impact of financial structure on operational efficiency of commercial banks” Objectives and questions of the research Overall objective: study and evaluate the impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks in Vietnam Detail goal: - Develop a research model to assess the impact of financial structure on the performance of commercial banks in Vietnam - Verify proposed research model with actual data collected from commercial banks 3 - Proposing some recommendations for commercial banks in Vietnam From above objectives, the study aims to answer the question: How does financial structure affect the operational efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks? This research question is detailed by specific questions: - Which research model is used to assess the impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks? - How is the impact of the financial structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks in Vietnam through the research model? 3.Subjects and scope of research - Research subjects: The object of the thesis is to study the financial structure of Vietnamese commercial banks and the impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks - Research scope: + In terms of space: 19 commercial banks in Vietnam + In terms of time: 19 commercial banks in Vietnam in years (from 2008 to 2016) + In terms of content: The thesis studies capital structure which focuses on researching the capital structure of Vietnamese commercial banks The thesis studies the financial efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks, because on the Vietnamese market, reliable financial indicators are often found in audited financial statements much more popular than the data about market, product and service quality, satisfaction level and labor force so to assess the operational efficiency of commercial banks, the author used the evaluation of the financial effectiveness The thesis studies the impact of capital structure on financial performance in Vietnamese commercial banks Contributions of the thesis New contributions in the domain of learning and theory (1)This is the first research in Vietnam to study the impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks in Vietnam (2) With previous researches, when researching on the financial structure, the author often studies the capital structure including equity and debts: variables representing the financial structure often include debt ratios (short-term, long-term), financial leverage main, or equity ratio on total assets With the capital structure characteristics of the banking industry (without dividing the debts by the payment term), it is impossible to separate the short-term and long-term debt ratios, on the other hand, the studies have never referred to the relationship between the financial structure of commercial banks related to assets, especially with the loan outstanding balance of banks, lending is the basic activity and brings the main source of income for commercial banks In this thesis, in addition to variables such as the ratio of equity to total assets, the ratio of equity to the total debt, the author has added the ratio of equity to loan outstanding balance and the ratio of equity to total deposits on the research (3) The positive impact of financial leverage on business operational efficiency is a well-known issue in most studies for business including the financial and non-financial sectors and is explained by M&M and trade-off theory, but with this research, these theories not explain the empirical results, this study is based on the explanations of the Pecking Order theory applied for commercial banks in Vietnam Findings from the research results (1) The financial structure of Vietnamese commercial banks has a very high debt ratio (2) Indicators reflecting financial structure all have a positive impact on the operational efficiency of commercial banks The special feature of the study here is the detection of equity ratio on total outstanding loans and equity ratio on total customer deposits that have a positive impact on the operational efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks: this shows the caution of Vietnamese commercial banks in lending and the security of customer deposits with equity (3) The factors bring reverse affect to operational efficiency such as cost-to-income ratio or total customer deposit (4) Growth factor affects directly and in the same way with operational efficiency New proposals are applied from the research results (1) For Vietnamese commercial banks: it is recommended to increase the size of equity to reduce the debt ratio in the total capital, merging some small-sized banks with poor operational efficiency and the good banks which have the financial resources to increase the size of these banks (2) Develop a suitable financial structure to the characteristics of each bank group: small-scale banks with poor effect, middle-class banking group and large-scale banking group which perform well (3) For government and stateowned banks: build a favorable environment for safe and sustainable development of commercial banks in Vietnam, providing a specific roadmap to require commercial banks to ensure capital adequacy ratio according to Basel II standard, support for merging procedures and consolidation among banks 5.Structure of the thesis In addition to the table of contents, the list of abbreviated words, the list of tables, figures, lists of references and appendix, the thesis is divided into chapters: Chapter 1: Overview of research on the impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks Chapter 2: Theoretical basis about the impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks Chapter 3: Research methods Chapter 4: Results of empirical research on the impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks Chapter 5: Some solutions and recommendations for Vietnamese commercial banks 5 CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL STRUCTURE ON THE OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS 1.1 Overview of research on the impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks Basically, the structural theory proposed by Modigliani and Miler (1958) has not made any reasonable predictions for the relationship between capital structure and profitability yet Berger (2002), through testing, agency cost theory has confirmed the causal relationship between capital structure and operational efficiency of commercial banks While other studies in this area also indicate the direction of the impact of capital structure and operational efficiency, there is disagreement about the trend of impact The differences of these studies are explained by the approach to each theory supported by that particular study 1.1.1 Viewpoint on the positive impact of financial structure on the performance of commercial banks According to the trade-off theory, in imperfect market conditions, due to the presence of taxes, bankruptcy costs and financial depletion, the proposition on "unrelated debt" is removed Modigliani and Miler (1963) also proposed the increase in using debt to take advantage of "tax shield" from deductible interest, thus in banks as well as in any industry, Debt using has a positive impact on operational efficiency Base on the above argument, the main hypothesis of the research in this approach is higher financial leverage (or lower equity ratio) in the capital structure of commercial banks related to higher operational efficiency In support of this view, some studies have showed the results on the positive impact of capital structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks such as: In 2002’s study, Berger researched the capital structure and financial efficiency of US commercial banks through testing agency cost theory The research data was made on 695 US commercial banks in the period of 1990-1995, and was re-examined on a total of 7320 US banks at the same time The results showed that: there was an interaction between capital structure and financial efficiency of the bank Specifically, there was a negative correlation (-) between financial efficiency (ROE) and equity / total assets (ECAP-Financial equity capital divided by gross total assets), in other words, there was a reciprocal interaction (same direction) between ROE and bank’s financial leverage Navapan and Tripe (2003) researched deeply on the relationship between the capital adequacy ratio and return on equity of Australia and New Zealand banks between 1996 and 2002 Experimental results showed that there was a reverse relationship between capital adequacy ratio and profitability in New Zealand banks In Australia, the relationship between capital adequacy ratio and ROE is not clear; the research results showed that there was a big difference between big banks and small banks Inheriting the research of Berger (2002), Hutchison and Cox (2006) studied about the US banking sector, Data sources are collected from the quaterly Reserve Bank CALL reports in two stages: from January 12/1982 - December 1989 and December 1996 to December 2002 The first assumption of the study is: financial leverage is positively related to ROE Research by Pratomo and Ismail (2006) hypothesizes the cost of 15 Muslim banks in Malaysia during 1997-2004, in which high-leverage banks tend to reduce agency costs Pratomo and Ismail put the profitability of the bank as an indicator of reducing agency costs and a bank's equity ratio as a leverage indicator Pratomo and Ismail examined the linkage of profitability measured by ROE and financial leverage Specifically, financial leverage has a mutual impact (+) on the bank's financial efficiency Hoffmann (2011), After analyzing the profitability of 11777 US banks, this study sought to examine the determinants of profitability of US banks during the period 19952007, with a total of 108,439 bank under observation in the years Empirical findings record the negative relationship between capital and profitability, support the notion that banks are operating too cautiously and ignore profitable trading opportunities Research by (Saeed, 2013) in which valuated the impact of capital structure on the operational efficiency of banks in Pakistan during the period (2007-2011) has discovered a mutual relationship between determinants deciding capital structure and operational efficiency of the banking industry 1.1.2 The view on the negative impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks Studies based on this approach are mainly based on Pecking Order theory and combined with the limitations of representative theory that higher financial leverage will cause free cash flow to be limited On the other hand, the managers will increase the fear of risk, eventually the managers will decide to give up high-risk projects with high profitability, so the financial leverage is high but the operational efficiency was not high because large positive cash flow projects were abandoned On the other hand, when financial leverage is high, creditors are seen as having a higher risk than shareholders, and then they ask managers to cut costs and abandon high-risk projects At this time, high financial leverage leads to long-term decline in operational efficiency Among the studies that the author can investigate the impact of financial structure on the performance of commercial banks, most studies mention this reverse relationship 7 Berger (1995) researched for US banks between 1983 and 1989 concluded that there was a positive and statistically significant impact between the rate of return on equity (ROE) and the ratio of capital assets (CAR, inverse ratio of leverage) Demirguc and Huizinga (2000), study the factors affecting the operational efficiency of banks, the author used data from 80 countries in years (1990-1997) The bigger the bank's equity is, the higher the bank's business operational efficiency is, but this observation is only found in countries with underdeveloped financial systems Hortlund (2005), the final results showed the existence of a positive relationship between equity and return on equity (or the ratio of leverage and ROE with a negative correlation) in the period of 1870-1980 (in this sense, this study supported Berger's previous results, 1995 and Demirgỹỗ-Kunt & Huizinga, 2000), but in the 1980s and 1990s this relationship was not very strong and the author believes that in the long term, the positive relationship between leverage and profit in the bank needs to be confirmed again Bach (2006) studied the relationship between financial structure and profitability of Croatian banks Data on business activities of 30 banks with full data from 1999 to 2003 were gathered Experimental results of the regression model showed that in the observations in 1999 until 2003, the profits of Croatian banks depended mainly on specific characteristics of each bank ROAA is positively related to capital / assets and unprofitable assets / total assets ROAE positively related to unprofitable assets / Total assets In another empirical study, Gropp and Heider (2009) analyzed over 200 banks in the US and EU through 1991-2004 and argued that the capital structure of banks is different from other financial companies, because deposits are often not available to companies For businesses, deposits can be viewed as short-term debts, and deposits are not long-term debts Expanding the research results of Berger (1995), Osborne, Fuertes and Milne (2011), the study of US sample banks, including 15,000 banks at the beginning of the sample period in 1977, fell to below 11,000 in 1995 and about 7000 in 2010 In this study, the authors reviewed the effect of capital on the profitability of US banks during the period of 1977-2010 to assess whether the relationship was different between banks or not, and whether the relationship changes over time Analysis showed that the long-term relationship between capital ratios and ROA is always positive 1.1.3 The third school: the financial structure is independent of the operational efficiency of commercial banks Ngo (2006) conducted a study with a sample of 2500 largest banks (according to total assets) in the US He found no systematic relationship between capital and profits in the bank 8 1.2 Research gap Through the overview, the author noticed: - The majority of authors who study capital structure impact on operational efficiency often study capital structure including equity and debts, the authors use variables representing capital structure such as debt ratio (short-term, long-term), financial leverage (total debt / total assets), equity ratio / total assets, with specific capital structure characteristic of the banking industry (not divided payable debts according to the payment term), therefore, it is impossible to separate the short-term and long-term debt ratios In addition, studies in the world have not mentioned the relationship between the capital structure of commercial banks in relation to assets, especially with the total loan outstanding balance of banks (Total Loans), because lending is the basic activity and brings the main revenue source for commercial banks - Variables representing the operational efficiency of commercial banks are ROA and ROE, the impact direction of variables to the unified operational efficiency depends on many factors such as the development of the national economy in each period, specific characteristic of researching countries - Variables in the study of authors are very diverse: from micro indicators such as bank scale, market deposit ratio, lending, securities investment, cost index group interest rate, market share index, age of the bank, market capitalization rate, bad debt ratio, to macro indicators: GNP, GDP, market share, inflation the impact direction of these variables to the operational efficiency of commercial banks are not consistent depending on the characteristics of each country Limitations in previous studies researching on the impact of capital structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks has not yet made the specific variables of the industry into the study, so the estimated results are still limited and differences between individual country studies - The studies show the ominidirection in the impact of capital structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks, the direction of heterogeneous impact: in the same study but at different stages also showed the difference between research results - In Vietnam, there are studies on the factors affecting the financial structure, factors affecting the operational efficiency of commercial banks and the researches on the impact of financial structure on operational efficiency which are mainly about other industries, not banking industry That is the reason for the author to study the impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks - In terms of research time, there are very few studies in the banking sector related to financial structure and operational efficiency in the longest period of time from the financial crisis of the economy, this study will last from 2008 to 2016 9 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL BASIS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL STRUCTURE ON THE OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS 2.1 Financial structure on commercial banks 2.1.1 Characteristics of business operations of commercial banks affect to the financial structure The concept about commercial banks: There are many different concepts about commercial banks, but in general economists agree that "commercial banks are an intermediary financial institution providing financial services including deposit and lending in cash, payments and other financial services ”(Frederick S Mishkin, 1992) 2.1.2 Financial structure of commercial banks Overview of financial structure: There are many different conceptions about the scope of research for financial structure: Firstly: Researchers believe that the financial structure is the capital structure, which is the structure between equity and liabilities in the total capital of the enterprise Or “The financial structure of enterprises is a combination of using debt and equity in a certain proportion to finance for business activities of enterprises” (Stephen A Ross W Westerfield and Bradford) D Jordan, 2003; Dare and Sola, 2010; Doan Ngoc Phi Anh, 2010; Foyeke et al, 2016) Secondly: Researchers believe that "the financial structure of a business consists of short-term debt plus medium, long-term debt, preferred shares and shares equity that are often used to finance for investment decisions in a business”(Macguigan et al, 2006; Cameron and Trivedi, 2010; Tran Ngoc Tho, 2010) Thirdly: Researchers believe that when studying and considering financial structure, it is necessary to study under both point of views: the first is the capital structure of enterprises and the second is the capital structure in relation with asset structure of enterprises (Nguyen Van Cong, 2010; Nguyen Nang Phuc, 2011; Pham Thi Thuy and Nguyen Thi Lan Anh, 2012) Therefore, from the first point of view, the financial structure is only considered within the capital structure, while the second view considers the capital structure in a wider range in both short and long term In the third view, in addition to consider the financial structure including capital structure like these two points of view, it also studies both the asset structure and the relationship between capital structure and asset structure According to the author, financial structure is capital structure in enterprises, commercial banks and this structure includes short-term debt, long-term debt, preferential share capital and stock capital The section is often used to finance investment decisions in a business or a bank 10 2.1.2.1 Capital structure Capital structure refers to the relationship between different sources of funding in enterprises and often emphasizes the combination of liabilities and equity (Vu Duy Hao and other authors, 1997; Nguyen Minh Kieu, 2006; Brealey and other authors, 2008; Brigham and Houston, 2009) In other words: capital structure is the measure of the proportion of each part of capital resources in the total capital of enterprises and commercial banks The above mentioned sources of capital include various sources of funding but mainly refer to the two main sources of equity and liabilities Therefore, in the scope of this thesis, the author studies and examines the financial structure of commercial banks from the perspective of capital structure including liabilities (Government debt and SBV; Deposits and borrowings other credit institutions, deposits of customers, derivative financial instruments and other financial liabilities, financing, entrusted investment, lending to credit institutions subject to risks, issuing valuable papers; Other liabilities) and equity 2.1.2.2 Indicators of capital structure Equity to Total Asset: This is an indicator reflecting the level of asset financing by equity The higher the value of the target is, the more likely it is for banks to be independent in finance and the lower the risk level of banks is This index is calculated as following: EQA = Total equity / Total assets (Equity to liabilities): This is the indicator reflecting the amount of equity that commercial banks account for to the total debt of commercial banks, or it can be said that how much of a bank debt is guaranteed by how many equity This index is calculated as following: EQD = Total equity / Total debt Equity to Total Loans: This indicator reflects the ratio of equity to the total amount that banks lend Lending is the biggest source of income for any commercial bank so the ratio of equity / total loan will show how the equity has been pushed out by banks as a loan Moreover, this ratio also aims to indicate the degree of caution of banks in lending This index is calculated as following: EQL = Total equity / Loan outstanding balance Equity to customer deposit and Short term funding: EQS = Total equity / Total customer deposits and short-term financing 2.2 Operational efficiency and impact of financial structure on the Operational efficiency of commercial banks 2.2.1 The operational efficiency (OE) concept of commercial banks 11 From the above analysis and research objectives of the topic, the author's views on OE of commercial banks are as follows: OE of commercial banks is an economic category reflecting the benefits gained from business activities of commercial banks In terms of the relationship between the obtained results with the commercial banks' potentials which are assets, equity, loans, and other funding sources to achieve the bank's business goals However, in fact of Vietnam market, the reliable financial indicators are often included in audited financial statements much more popular than other data about the market, the quality of products / services, about the level satisfaction and labor force Therefore, the viewpoint of efficiency the author used in this thesis to evaluate the operational efficiency of commercial banks based on the standard of evaluating financial efficiency Indicators for evaluating financial efficiency of commercial banks Group of indicators showing profitability Return on total assets: ROA = Net income for ordinary shareholders / Total assets Return on common equity: This is an indicator of the bank's profitability, this is the most important ratio for shareholders, and this ratio measures the profitability of each shareholder's equity ROE = Net income for ordinary shareholders / Ordinary equity Group of market value indicators Price to earnings ratio (P / E): P / E = Market price per share / Earnings per share Price to book ratio (Tobin, s Q) Tobin, s Q = (Equity market value + Liabilities) / Total assets 2.2.2 Impact of financial structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks 2.2.2.1 Capital structure theory M & M Theory: Modigliani and Miller (1958) provide theories that explain the capital structure and value of companies in assumption of perfect capital market conditions It is assumed that there is no bankruptcy costs, unstable capital market and no taxes, the value of the company is independent from the capital structure However, when corporate income taxes and capital costs exist, the market value of companies is positively related to the long-term debts used in their capital structure (Modigliani and Miller, 1963) Trade- off Theory: The content of the trade-off theory is: The value of the company with debt (VL) measured by the value of the unlevered company (VU) plus the present value of the tax shield (T.B) minus the cost of financial loss: 12 Pecking Order Theory: Pecking order theory was first introduced by Donaldson in 1961 and edited by C Myers and Majluf in 1984 Pecking order theory does not mention to whether there is an optimal capital structure for businesses or not, this proposes a priority order to select funding sources This theory claims that when a company needs a source of capital to invest in finance, they prioritize their first resources such as internal finance, then issue debt, and eventually issue shares If internal finance is not enough, they will issue debt bonds, and when the debt is exhausted, they will issue shares 2.2.2.2 Impact of capital structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks Firstly: The positive impact of capital structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks Secondly: Negative impact of capital structure on the operational efficiency of commercial banks 13 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODS 3.1 Research hypothesis H1: Capital structure has a positive impact on the performance of Vietnamese commercial banks H2: The cost-to-income ratio has a negative impact on the performance of Vietnamese commercial banks H3: Credit granting rate from mobilized capital has a negative impact on performance of Vietnamese commercial banks H4: The growth rate of assets has a positive impact on performance of Vietnamese commercial banks H5: Total deposits has a positive impact on performance of Vietnamese commercial banks H6: Income from margin interest has a positive impact on performance of Vietnamese commercial banks H7: Bad debt ratio has a negative impact on performance of Vietnamese commercial banks 3.2.Research model and proposed variables Financial Structure EQA EQD EQL Performance ROA ROE EQS 14 Table Regression equation Equation ROA= β0 + β1x EQA + β2 x EQD + β3 x EQL + β4 x EQS + β5 x CIN+ β6 x LTD + β7 x GROWTH + β8 x CDE + β9 x NIM Inde pendent variable Depe ndent variable ROA +β10 x NPL Control variable EQA CIN EQD EQL LTD GROWTH EQS CDE NIM NPL ROE= β0 + β1x EQA + β2 x EQD + β3 x EQL + β4 x EQS + β5 x CIN + β6 x LTD+ β7 x GROWTH + β8 x CDE + β9 x NIM +β10 x NPL ROE EQA EQD EQL EQS CIN LTD GROW TH CDE NIM NPL Source: Author 3.3 Data source and method of data collection 3.3.1 Research data source: Data collection: Data sources collected from the annual report of the SBV as of December 31, 2006 had a total of 35 commercial banks including sate-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) (including state-owned commercial banks were purchased for VND), 28 joint-stocked commercial banks (JSCBs) and joint-venture commerical banks (JVCBs) But because some banks were newly established, newly merged, newly acquired so the data collected by the authors was incomplete, not highly accurate yet and not reliable enough so that the author has excluded from the research Therefore, the research sample of the thesis includes 19 commercial banks including the SOCBs and the JSCBs and excludes the JVCBs All of these banks are included in the research model to assess the impact of capital structure on performance of commercial banks for the following reasons: Data on variables in the research model are collected as secondary data from the audited financial statements of researched commercial banks, the SBV and websites of Vietnamese stated agencies With 19 commercial banks in the 9-year period from 20082016, a data sheet and cross-section data were created including 171 observations Data processing: From the secondary data collected, the author imported into the Excel software to calculate the variables of the research model, then the data was processed on Stata software by the array data regression method 15 3.3.2 Method of processing data The thesis uses quantitative research methods: Along with comparative analysis and descriptive statistics, the research used regression analysis in order to estimate the impact level of the explanatory factors on the dependent variable in the proposed regression model The research used STATA software to analyse the datas Firstly, the research estimated by using a random-effects model (REM) or a fixed-effects model (FEM) The author then proceeded to carry out the Hausman test to find out a model that is consistent with the author's research data The results suggested that random effects of REM are more suitable for ROA studies and fixed effects of FEM are suitable for ROE research After finding the suitable models by Hausman test, the author conducted the stability tests of the model: (1) autocorrelation test; (2) variance changes test; (3) multicollinearity test Using robust correction recalculated standard errors in the case of the test shows that the model has variance change or autocorrelation problems The statistical results using estimation methods were synthesized for collation and comparison 16 CHAPTER 4: EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH RESULTS ON THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL STRUCTURE ON THE PERFOMANCE OF VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS 4.1 Overview of Vietnamese Commercial Banking system 4.1.1 The birth and development of Vietnamese commercial banking system Table 4.1: Number of banks in Vietnam (2008-2016) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 State-owned commerical banks 5 5 5 7 Joint-stock commerical banks 34 37 37 35 35 33 28 28 28 5 4 4 41 45 48 50 50 53 47 50 51 85 92 96 94 94 95 84 88 88 Joint-venture commercial banks Foreign banks branch Source: Annual report of SBV 2008-2016 4.1.2 Growth scale of Vietnamese commercial banking system Table 4.2: Scale and growth rate of assets of Vietnamese Commercial Banking system (Unit: trillion VND) Banking system 2012 2013 2014 Amount % Amount % Amount % 2015 2016 Amount % Amount % State commerical banks 2.201 11,8 2.504 13,7 2.876 14,8 3.303 16,5 3.861 16,8 Joint-stock commerical banks 2.159 -4,5 2.463 14 2780 13,1 2.928 8,9 3.422 16.8 Jointventure commercial banks 555 1,6 704 26,8 701,9 -0,4 755,5 7,6 828 9,63 4.915 2,5 5.671 13,1 6.358 12,2 6.987 12,3 8.111 16,1 TOTAL Source: author’s calculation 17 4.2 Analyzing the current status of financial structure and performance of Vietnamese commercial banks 4.2.1 The current status of financial structure of Vietnamese commercial banks Table 4.1: Scale of total assets and equity of the group of 19 research banks Total assets (trillion) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1.530 2.017 2.763 3.345 3.513 3.896 4.461 4.388 5.178 31,8 36,9 21,06 5,05 10,9 14,5 -1,64 18 141,1 189,7 231,3 270,4 307,9 320,5 360,4 383,8 22,5 34,4 21,9 16,9 13,9 4,09 12,4 6,5 (%) Growth Equity (trillion) 115,2 (%) Growth Source: author’s calculation 4.3.1.2 Analyzing indicators of capital structure Table 4.2: Statistics describing the rate of EQA, EQD, EQL, EQS in the period of 2008-2016 Indicator EQA EQD EQL EQS Average 9,5191 11,122 22,607 11,869 Smallest 4,13 4,35 5,49 4,61 Biggest 46,25 86,03 370,72 90,68 5,6907 9,4238 30,786 9,7912 Standard deviaton Source: author using Stata Statistics describing the average ratio of EQA, EQD in table 4.13 shows that the commercial banks are maintaining capital structure of leaning toward debt expressed through the average value of the research sample that is 9,5191% of equity ratio and 11,122% of equity to debt ratio This means that there are only VND 9,51 raising from equity out of VND 100 total bank’s asset, and out of VND 100 total bank’s debt, there are only VND 11,12 of equity Capital structure with high debt will create an opportunity to increase profits for owners if the use of debt is effective, because of the tax savings from using debt and low cost of capital; but it will be also a challenge for the safety of the commercial banks and a great threat profit ability for owners if the use of debt is inefficient 18 4.2.2 The current status of performance of Vietnamese commercial banks Table 4.3: Statistics describing the performance of Vietnamese commercial banks (2008 – 2016) Variable Average Value Standard deviation Smallest Biggest ROA 0,9985 1,0154 -5,99 7,94 ROE 10,63169 8,729012 -56,33 32,14 Source: author using Stata 4.3 Analyzing the impact of financial structure on the performance of Vietnamese commercial banks 4.3.1 Data description statistics Statistics describe the general research variables by statistical indicators such as the number of observations of the average, the largest - the smallest number, the standard deviation as shown in Table 4.4: Table 4.4: Describing the research variables Variable Average Standard deviation Smallest Biggest ROA 0,9985 1,0154 -5,99 7,94 ROE 10,63169 8,729012 -56,33 32,14 NIM 3,452 1,3487 0,85 9,75 CIN 49,432 13,684 25,17 93,14 EQA 9,5191 5,6907 4,13 46,25 EQL 22,607 30,786 5,49 370,72 EQS 11,869 9,7912 4,61 90,68 EQD 11,122 9,4238 4,35 86,03 GROWTH 35,492 76,967 -39,24 779 NPL 2,3632 1,6308 0,02 LTD 84,136 23,437 23,51 252 CDE 131.251,3 164.480,8 117.1 866.004 Source: author using Stata 4.3.3.Selecting regression model 4.3.3.1 Multicollinearity test 4.3.3.2 The results of estimation and verification of linear regression model on the impact of capital structure on the performance of Vietnamese commercial banks Analysis for ROA 19 Table 4.5: Summary of results of regression model for dependent variable ROA VARIABLES NIM CIN GROWTH NPL CDE ROA ROA ROA ROA 0,149*** 0,168*** 0,149*** 0,149*** -0,0373 -0,0372 -0,0376 -0,0374 -0,0249*** -0,0248*** -0,0247*** -0,0250*** -0,00329 -0,00328 -0,00332 -0,00329 0,00141*** 0,00128*** 0,00137*** 0,00138*** -0,00044 -0,00043 -0,00044 -0,00044 -0,0165 -0,0178 -0,016 -0,0174 -0,0234 -0,0235 -0,0236 -0,0235 -0,720* -0,61* -0,786** -0,767** -0,39 -0,396 -0,388 -0,387 0,0426*** EQA -0,0105 0,0140*** EQL -0,00346 0,0285*** EQS -0,00747 0,0305*** EQD -0,00768 1,496*** 1,523*** 1,567*** 1,582*** -0,277 -0,274 -0,274 -0,269 Observations 119 119 119 119 Number of i 19 19 19 19 Constant Standard errors in parentheses *** p
Ngày đăng: 26/06/2019, 07:51
Xem thêm:
