ICMP planning budgeting report EN

CLIMATE RESPONSIVE PLANNING AND BUDGETING IN THE MEKONG DELTA Monitoring Climate Targets through Budget Classification Abbrevations BMZ German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development CA Commitment Appropriations CC Climate Change CCD Climate Change Delivery CC&GG Climate Change & Green Growth CCVI Climate Change Vulnerability Index CPEIR Climate Public Expenditure and Investment Review COP Conference of Parties DAC OECD Development Assistance Committee DARD Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Development DFAT Australian Department for Foreign Affairs and Trade DoC Provincial Department of Construction DoH Provincial Department of Health DoLISA Provincial Department of Labor, Invalids and Soc Affairs DoNRE Provincial Department of Natural Resources and Environment DoST Provincial Department of Science and Technology DoT Provincial Department of Transportation DPI Provincial Department of Planning and Investment EC European Commission EU European Union GDP Gross Domestic Product GEAP Gender Equality Action Planning GHG Green House Gas GIZ German International Cooperation GoV Government of Vietnam MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MoC Ministry of Construction MoF Ministry of Finance MoNRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment MoIT Ministry of Industry and Trade MoT Ministry of Transportation MRV Measuring, Reporting, Verification MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment NCCS National Climate Change Strategy (Vietam) NDC (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions NTP National Target Programme ICMP Integrated Coastal Management Programme ODA Overseas Development Assistance OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development PEFA Public Expenditure Framework Assessment PG Policy and Governance PM Prime Minister PPC Provincial People’s Committee SEDP Socio-Economic Development Plan SP-RCC Sector Programme to Respond to Climate Change ST Science Technology UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change USD US Dollar VGGS Vietnam Green Growth Strategy VND Vietnamese Dong Y1, 2, Year 1, 2, 3 Contents Abbrevations Executive Summary From Paris to the Mekong Delta – Climate Strategy Implementation and Reporting……………………………… 2.1 The Paris Agreement and Enhanced Transparency…………………… 2.2 Vietnam’s Response to Climate Change………………………………… 10 Methods to classify climate responsive investments…………………………… 13 3.1 OECD-DAC Climate Markers……………………………………………… 15 3.2 The CPEIR Typology in Vietnam…………………………………………… 16 3.3 Which Budget? Plan vs Disclosure and Investment vs Recurrent…… 24 3.4 Approaches to Classification and Cooperation in the Mekong Delta………………………………………………………………………………… 25 Ex-Post Classification of Investment Budget Plans in the Mekong Delta…………………………………………………………………………………… 27 4.1 Results from Mekong Delta Provinces…………………………………… 28 4.2 Ca Mau province……………………………………………………………… 32 4.3 Bac Lieu province…………………………………………………………… 37 4.4 Kien Giang province………………………………………………………… 40 4.5 Soc Trang province…………………………………………………………… 44 4.6 Summary of Findings and Conclusions Concerning the Mekong Delta Provinces…………………………………………………………………………… 47 Iterative Steps and Recommendations for Future Planning…………………… 49 Bibliography…………………………………………………………………………… 54 List of tables Table 1: Task to implement the Paris Agreement (NDC, 2016) 10 Table 2: Connection between Vietnam’s already existing climate change approaches and NDC tasks 11 Table 3: CPEIR and CC&GG classification and weighting criteria 18 Table 4: Merging weighting criteria with investment typology 19 Table 5: Mekong Delta Climate Change Budget Classification 2013-2015 29 Table 6: Ca Mau’s climate change responsive investments 2015 according to source 33 Table 7: Ca Mau’s TOP line item climate responsive investments 2015 34 Table 8: Bac Lieu’s climate change responsive investment 2015 according to source 37 Table 9: Bac Lieu’s TOP line item climate responsive investments 2015 38 Table 10: Kien Giang’s climate change responsive investments 2015 according to source 41 Table 11: Kien Giang’s TOP line item climate change responsive investments 2015 42 Table 12: Soc Trang’s 2015 investments according to source 44 Table 13: Soc Trang’s TOP line item investments for climate change response in 2015 46 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Vietnam is among the countries worldwide to be most affected by climate change The Government of Vietnam has therefore started to focus on appropriate strategy formulation to focus on both adaptation and mitigation As a signatory to the 2015 Paris Agreement, Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) will be moved further in the limelight of attention Pressure to therefore identify approaches to ensure a visibility and connection between policy and implementation on the one hand and to monitor the associated flow of funding on the other, will grow This survey tries to shed more light on the question, how a higher visibility of climate responsive funding can be reached and potentially connected to strategies As the country is characterized by its high degree of decentralization, the center piece of the survey is the assessment of climate change investments at provincial level The survey has been part of the cooperation between the Government of Vietnam (GoV), the German Ministry for Economic Development and Cooperation (BMZ) and the Australian Department for Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), embedded in the Integrated Coastal Management Programme (ICMP), implemented by the German International Cooperation (GIZ) with focus on the Mekong Delta This most southern Vietnamese region is featured by its high vulnerability regarding the effects of climate change, characterized by extreme weather events, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, floods and droughts With a population of 17 million, it is Vietnam’s most important agricultural region, producing rice not only for the country itself, but large parts of Asia coastal provinces spend amounts between approximately US$ 20-30 million per year for climate responsive investments Based on the use of the CPEIR typology, the bulk share of climate responsive classified investments reaches high degrees of relevance in which up to 100% of the overall amounts of single investments are accounted for adaptation The investments predominantly reflect the province’s vulnerability to sea level rise, floods, erosion and saline intrusion Response investments are hence mostly planned for dykes, dyke protection or the prevention of saltwater intrusion In this regard, it is remarkable that in all provinces, mostly funds from either national allocations or ODA and state bonds are being used Hence, it is a hypothesis, that equally high real climate change expenses in the provinces are also rooted in similar response strategies and actions at national level Results are so far based on investment plans only and apply a retrospective view To ensure a strengthened orientation towards the fulfilment of the Paris Agreement, the introduction of a newly aligned process to incorporate classification methods during the annual planning process on the basis of cross-sectorial cooperation at provincial level will be a key necessity The Integrated Coastal Management Programme (ICMP) is a development programme funded by the governments of Australia, Germany and Viet Nam Its objective is to support the Vietnamese authorities in preparing the coastal area of the Mekong Delta for a changing environment and to lay the foundations for sustainable growth The programme works in six interlinked working areas: agriculture, aquaculture, coastal protection, forest, planning and budgeting, and water management Based on the OECD-DAC Rio marker, a UNDP driven Climate Public Expenditure and Investment Review (CPEIR) method to classify climate responsive investments has been applied The results of the year cooperation in this field have shown that the examined FROM PARIS TO THE MEKONG DELTA – CLIMATE STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION AND REPORTING impacts and adaptation Regarding climate finance, mainly developed countries are accountable to classify their contributions while developing countries are required to provide information on needed capacity building as well as needed and received financial support (UNFCCC, 2015:17) As a signatory country, Vietnam’s ambitious goals as formulated in its NDC will be also subject of the reporting process and the enhanced transparency framework for action and support Hence, the internationally agreed timeline and its milestones until 2028 will require Vietnam to align with this global regime, not only in terms of goal formulation, but also concerning new approaches towards strategy formulation and implementation of action as well as evaluation 2.1 The Paris Agreement and Enhanced Transparency Since fall 2015 the majority of nations have subscribed to a new global regime of climate governance, based on the COP 21’s Paris Agreement Based on the U.N Framework Convention for Climate Change, “[…] the Paris Agreement’s central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius Additionally, the agreement aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change To reach these ambitious goals, appropriate financial flows, a new technology framework and an enhanced capacity building framework will be put in place, thus supporting action by developing countries and the most vulnerable countries, in line with their own national objectives The Agreement also provides for enhanced transparency of action and support through a more robust transparency framework (UNFCCC, 2016).” In 2018, a UNFCCC global facilitative dialogue is supposed to take stock of the collective efforts made so far Parallel, common modalities regarding procedures and guidelines on Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) must be elaborated until 2018 and adopted by 2020 Until 2028 stock-taking, including financial tracking and the formulation of new pledges will continue As part of this roadmap, a capacity building initiative highlights i) to strengthen national institutions for more transparency, related to activities in line with national priorities, ii) provide tools and training to meet provisions in article 13 of the Paris Agreement, as well as iii) to assist in the improvement of transparency over time (UNFCCC, 2015:12) After the ratification of 126 countries, the Paris Agreement came into effect in December 2016 In contrast to the Kyoto Protocol, the agreement is not binding by international law and highlights its voluntarily basis through the formulation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Article of the Agreement states that NDCs have to be ambitious and countries have to report to UNFCCC every years, including a principal progression of formulated targets for every new reporting time period In contrast to the Agreement itself, the reporting process however, is mandated in the so-called legally binding “enhanced transparency framework for action and support”, outlined in article 13 of the Agreement Besides an emissions inventory and the tracking of progress, the framework also governs to provide information related to climate change In summary, as a signatory of the Paris Agreement, Vietnam will face the need to align its MRV modalities So far, related to climate finance, only article 13 of the Paris Agreement imposes the duty to report on received funding for climate change response Nevertheless, the requirement to also report on emission reduction and adaptation efforts foreshadow the necessity for better tagging and tracking of domestic climate finance as the fulfilment of ambitious goals mainly rely on public funding Taking the Agreement’s timeline until 2028 into account, the need to principal progression and the formulation of more ambitious goals over time also implies that public spending to combat climate change has to be increased 2.2 Vietnam’s Response Climate Change Protection are in line with the overarching national strategies (NCCS or VGGS) and offer further national funding opportunities for implementation In most cases, especially with regards to adaptation and more recently related to mitigation, the above mentioned Action Plan to Respond to Climate Change and the VGGS have also been disseminated to the provincial level The 63 provinces in Vietnam function as the second administrative tier with far reaching responsibilities and execute about 70% of the country’s total public budget (MPI, 2015:36) A translation and applicability of national policies at local level has thus gained high priority to For the period from 1996 until 2015, Vietnam was ranked as the 8th most affected country in the world related to climate change with an average 0.62% GDP loss and with second highest number (206) of extreme weather events worldwide (Germanwatch, 2017:6) Similarly, according to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index, Vietnam is currently considered one of 30 “extreme risk countries” in the world (CCVI, 2016) The debate about climate change, its consequences and vulnerabilities for Vietnam has also influenced the country’s policy formulation hence multiple strategies, policies and actions plans addressing the challenges of climate change have been prepared by the Government of Vietnam in recent years The most prominent ones are the National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS), the Action Plan to Respond to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise, both from 2011, and the National/ Vietnam Green Growth Strategy (VGGS) from 2012 Further laws on natural Disaster Prevention or Environmental This stock of vastly existing approaches on all levels in Vietnam has also paved the way to advance Vietnam’s aspiration for a successful contribution to the COP 21 in Paris And indeed, in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement, Vietnam formulated the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) After the agreement’s ratification in 2016, the INDC dropped the first letter and are now the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Probably the most important outlook for Vietnam’s actions for the future, the NDC and its annex, the “Plan for Implementation of the Paris Agreement” (2016) contains an annex with a list of compulsory, priority and encouraged tasks to be implemented until 2020 and 2030 The task matrix has a total number of 68 tasks, split into five main areas, as listed in table below Table 1: Task to implement the Paris Agreement (NDC, 2016) Tasks to implement the Paris Agreement Mitigation of greenhouse gas emission Adaptation to climate change Preparation of resources Establishment of transparency system (MRV) Development and revision of policies and institutions 10 tasks until 2020; tasks until 2030 (#1-16) tasks until 2020; 13 tasks until 2030 (#17-38) 13 tasks (#39-51) tasks (#52-59) tasks (#60-68) (Author’s own table Adapted from Vietnam’s NDC annex “Plan for the Implementation of the Paris Agreement”) 10 Table 10: Kien Giang’s climate change responsive investments 2015 according to source Kien Giang 2015 CPEIR coefficient CC&GG coefficient range Allocated for CC Allocated for CC $1= VND 22.500 Source Total Budget balanced Central Budget Central Budget ODA National Target Programme State Bond $ $ $ $ $ 50.687.600 41.937.778 11.164.133 1.546.667 44.565.600 $ $ $ $ $ State Bond Counterpart ODA State Bond Rural Programme Loan Lottery Lottery Fund $ $ $ $ $ 1.688.889 3.022.230 5.555.556 49.186.356 13.333.333 $ $ $ $ $ TOTAL % $ 222.688.142 $ 437.007 12.559.689 9.340.485 577.778 3.811.556 290.653 9.728.400 943.556 577.778 2.901.333 $ $ $ $ $ 460.991 15.571.600 9.801.844 577.778 5.632.000 177.778 331.582 - $ $ $ $ $ 8.889 150.376 - $ $ $ $ $ 435.556 476.691 - 27.235.874 $ 18.033.463 $ 32.956.460 12,23 Table 11 below displays the 16 TOP line items relevant for climate change in Kien Giang province in 2015 The sole investment from a provincial source is for urban flood proofing and is also by far the smallest, compared with central government allocated, ODA and state bond projects The largest single investments have been made for sluice gates, coastal dykes and wave breaker, irrigation, water retention measures and forestation with most responsibilities assigned to DARD and DoC 41 max $ $ $ $ $ 18,88 14,80 Table 11: Kien Giang’s TOP line item climate change responsive investments 2015 TOP line items Kien Giang 2015 Total investment value VND×1mil Climate responsive share CPEIR % USD VND×1mil USD responsible nat.policy Provincial Budget Flood proofing projects for urbans in MK delta 10.000 VND $ 444.444 100% 3.000 VND $ 133.333 DoC 38.900 VND $ 1.728.889 87% 33.843 VND $ 1.504.133 5.000 VND $ 222.222 67% 3.350 VND $ 148.889 DARD 17.000 VND $ 755.556 100% 17.000 VND $ 755.556 DARD 13.000 VND $ 577.778 100% 13.000 VND $ 577.778 DARD 50.000 VND $ 2.222.222 100% 50.000 VND $ 2.222.222 DARD 10.000 VND $ 44.444 100% 10.000 VND $ 444.444 DARD 17.000 VND $ 755.556 87% 14.790 VND $ 657.333 20.000 VND $ 888.889 80% 16.000 VND $ 711.111 42.000 VND $ 1.866.667 100% 42.000 VND $ 1.866.667 DARD 15.000 VND $ 666.667 15.000 VND $ 666.667 DARD 21.000 VND $ 933.333 100% 21.000 VND $ 933.333 DARD 115.000 VND $ 5.111.111 100% 100% 115.000 VND $ 5.111.111 DARD 13.000 VND $ 577.778 13.000 VND $ 577.778 DARD 38.000 VND $ 1.688.889 38.000 VND $ 1.688.889 DARD National Allocations Embankment in Giồng Riềng Infrastructure for aquaculture production in Vĩnh Phong – Vĩnh Thuận Wave breaking dyke and river dredging of Dương Đông river Sea dyke project in An Biên – An Minh (27 sluicegates) Sea dyke through Rạch Giá Reinforcement & upgrading sea dyke in An Biên – An Minh Shelters and storm shelter for fishing boats in Lình Huỳnh, Hòn Đất, Kiên Giang Infrastructure construction for resettlement in Gành Dầu Investment, restoration and protection National forest of UMT Water retention of Bãi Nhà, Kiên Hải (Hòn Ngang, Bãi Nhà and repairing retention of Hòn Lớn), Kiên Hải, Kiên Giang DoC ODA Allocations Irrigation management serving agri development in MK Sluicegate for Sông Kiên river, Rạch Giá Gaining alum for mangrove forestation to protect sea dyke from Bình Sơn to Bình Giang Forest restoration project along the coast in Kiên Giang 2015-2020 100% State Bond Adapted irrigation system for aquaculture production DARD 128.000 VND $ 5.688.889 Summarizing Kien Giang’s overall climate response investment in 2015, the conclusion also differs slightly compared with the other provinces While Ca Mau has spent 35% and Bac Lieu and Soc Trang more 45%, Kien Giang only budgeted 18% for coastal protection and dykes Kien Giang’s climate investment pie is more balanced among coastal protection, saline intrusion prevention, forest development and aquaculture Below 10% are CCD 1.4 river embankments, CCD 1.5 water quality and also CCD 2.6 disaster infrastructure Special attention should be on the other hand paid to the province’s transportation and road 67% 85.760 VND $ 3.811.556 DARD investments With 7% for CCD 2.4 the category is already relatively well positioned compared with the other three provinces Mainly central government allocations for the up-grading and partly climate proofing of roads can be accounted here with a percentage coefficient between 1-24% But in addition to that, the province has funded the construction of new roads with state bond sources worth VND 672,726 million or US$ 29.9 million in 2015 alone As for the state bond funding no information e.g through DoT’s investment proposals could be disclosed, it remains unclear whether part of the investment funding has 42 been used for climate proofing measures It has to be thus noted that the amount for transportation from state bond sources in Kien Giang was classified as non-relevant (0%) due to lack of appropriate information Diagram 4: Kien Giang’s climate change responsive investments 2015 according to CPEIR typology CCD 2.4: CCD 2.6: Disaster Transportation infrastructure 3% 7% CCD 1.9: Biodiversity 1% CCD 2.3: Urban resilience 4% CCD1.1: Coastal protection and sea dykes 18% CCD1.8: Aquaculture 19% CCD1.2: Saline intrusion 22% CCD1.7: Forest development 15% CCD1.5: Water quality 5% It is therefore one of the key lessons of the classification process to not only involve the various provincial departments such as DoT, but to identify a mechanism in which investment proposals can highlight climate change response in rather cross-cutting infrastructure projects such as roads or urban infrastructure In addition, it is also obvious that capacity building towards climate proofing of public and private infrastructure has just begun and requires a horizontal approach, involving more ministries and departments 43 CCD1.4: River embankments 6% 4.5 Soc Trang province Soc Trang’s results for the 2015 investment budget plan show high percentage values for both coefficient methods CPEIR and CC&GG (see table 12) While the latter indicates a range between 27% and 38%, the CPEIR almost perfectly claims the middle with 33.67% climate change investments As already seen in table (classification overview 2013-15), Soc Trang shows peculiar percentage ratios for all three consecutive years between 2013 and 2015 with an average of 35.55% However, what has to be pointed out is that Soc Trang has a much smaller overall investment budget basis With US$ 55.3 million, Soc Trang possesses only 60% of Bac Lieu’s investment budget And yet, the province’s investment expenditures for climate change are almost identical to Bac Lieu’s investments with US$ 18.6 million vs US$ 19.6 million What is the reason for a much smaller investment budget but relatively high climate change resilient spending? Table 12: Soc Trang’s 2015 investments according to source Soc Trang 2015 CPEIR coefficient CC&GG coefficient range Allocated for CC Allocated for CC $1= VND 22.500 Source Total Provincial National NTP ODA State Bond Lottery Loans Other Sources $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ max 7.384.000 15.128.889 1.613.333 6.800.000 16.568.889 4.404.267 2.166.667 1.333.333 $ 55.399.378 $ 18.650.862 % 33,67 First of all, the question seems to be difficult to answer, as Soc Trang could not provide a funding source differentiated list As mentioned earlier, the formats of the all provincial investment budget plans differ In most cases, annual delays e.g with regards to ODA no nation-wide template being used at provincial level, many DPIs also use different formats While Bac Lieu province e.g displays all expenditures with an indication of the financial source in one sheet, Ca Mau separates individual $ 15.034.085 27,14 $ 21.197.328 38,26 spreadsheets according to source in one excel file Soc Trang on the other hand lists all investments, but without further differentiation according to source Compared to the other subchapters, an overview to identify highest source contributions for climate change is not provided What offers more insights though is a closer look through which climate change response expenses Soc Trang’s budget is being dominated Table 13 shows the TOP line items with relevance for climate change in Soc Trang 44 province River embankments and various dyke projects with a total of more than US$ million are followed by mangrove rehabilitation and reforestation projects of around US$ million in total With less than US$ million irrigation, saltwater prevention and climate proof road construction can be accounted for climate resilient expenses Also like in the other provinces, mainly DARDs are responsible for the execution of the projects Although funding sources cannot be attributed to climate change expenses in the first place, it seems very likely that as in the other surveyed provinces, the majority of climate change funding derives from national allocations and ODA One conclusion is hence, that for the assessed Mekong Delta provinces, the overall investment budget size is not determining the amount spend for climate change response measures A hypothesis for future assessments is rather suggesting a large dependency on fund allocations from central government for larger infrastructure projects (dykes and embankments e.g.) or forestation, based on national policies such as the Decision 667 for the dyke construction from Quang Ngai to Kien Giang, NTPs or the SP-RCC 45 Table 13: Soc Trang’s TOP line item investments for climate change response in 2015 TOP line items Soc Trang 2015 Build surrounding dyke to protect low-lying areas in Ngã Năm district (Ngã Năm town at present) from flooding, Sóc Trăng province Build surrounding dyke to protect low-lying areas in Ngã Năm district (Ngã Năm town at present) from flooding, Sóc Trăng province Improve and upgrade irrigation system for aquaculture in Lai Hòa – Vĩnh Tân, Vĩnh Châu town, Sóc Trăng province Improve and upgrade irrigation system for aquaculture in Vĩnh Phước – Vĩnh Tân, Vĩnh Châu town, Sóc Trăng province Saltwater intrusion prevention system to stabilise production at Saintard river right bank area-under the irrigation management for rural production in the Mekong Delta project Improve and upgrade irrigation system for aquaculture in Cù Lao Dung district District road 50, Mỹ Xuyên district Rural roads for traffic and for rescue, security and defense of new rural communes in Vĩnh Châu town, Sóc Trăng province Maspero river bank embankments Maspero river bank embankments Protect from erosion, create accretion and plant mangrove trees for sea dyke protection from erosion in Vĩnh Hải commune, Vinh Chau district (Vinh Chau town at present) Create accretion and plant mangrove trees at sea dyke of Vĩnh Tân – Vĩnh Phước communes Pilot new plantation, restoration and protection of mangrove forests for climate change adaption in the coastal zone of Soc Trang province Vĩnh Châu embankment for river erosion protection Embankments to remedy river erosion in Ke Sach district VND×1mil USD CPEIR % VND×1mil USD responsible 28.000 VND $ 1.244.444 99% 27.720 VND $ 1.232.000 60.000 VND $ 2.666.667 99% 59.400 VND $ 2.640.000 $ 577.778 67% 8.710 VND $ 387.111 DARD 14.500 VND $ 644.444 67% 9.715 VND $ 431.778 DARD 14.100 VND $ 626.667 100% 14.100 VND $ 626.667 DARD 17.500 VND $ 777.778 67% 11.725 VND $ 521.111 DARD 21.700 VND $ 964.444 20% 4.340 VND $ 192.889 DoT 48.750 VND $ 2.166.667 20% 9.750 VND $ 433.333 DoT 77.800 VND 14.000 VND $ $ 3.457.778 622.222 87% 87% 67.686 VND 12.180 VND $ $ 3.009.267 541.333 DARD DARD 20.000 VND $ 888.889 100% 20.000 VND $ 888.889 DARD 20.000 VND $ 888.889 100% 20.000 VND $ 888.889 DARD 25.000 VND $ 1.111.111 100% 25.000 VND $ 1.111.111 DARD 20.000 VND $ 888.889 87% 17.400 VND $ 773.333 DARD 10.000 VND $ 444.444 87% 8.700 VND $ 386.667 DARD 13.000 VND The pie diagram below is also confirming the observation from the examples given in the TOP line item list and concenring a major attention on coastal vulnerabilities CCD 1.1 and CCD 1.3 on coastal protection and dykes as well as river embankments and dykes make up more than three-quarter of the entire climate response funding in Soc Trang province The overall pattern is again very similar compared with the other provinces Coefficients indicating a much DoC lower significance of up to 25% relevant for climate change, only account for the smallest pieces of the overall climate investment pie As in the other provinces, these are transportation and mainly waste management, which require further surveillence and methodological fine tuning in the future Nevertheless, as they make up only less than 10% of all climate related investments, potential deviations are unlikely to distort provincial results 46 Diagram 5: Soc Trang’s climate change response investments according to CPEIR typology CCD 1.9: Biodiversity 1% CCD 1.8: Aquaculture 9% CCD 1.5: Water quality 2% CCD 2.5: Waste Mgmt.1% Science&Tech: 2% CCD 2.4: Transport 4% CCD 1.1: Coastal protection and sea dykes 47% CCD 1.4 : River dyke embankments 30% CCD 1.2: Saline Intrusion 3% One conclusion is hence, that for the assessed Mekong Delta provinces, the overall investment budget size is not determining the amount spent for climate change response measures A hypothesis for future assessments is rather suggesting a large dependency on fund allocations from central government for larger infrastructure projects (dykes and embankments e.g.) or forestation, based on national policies such as the Decision 667 for the dyke construction from Quang Ngai to Kien Giang, NTPs or the SP-RCC 4.6 Summary of Findings and Conclusions Concerning the Mekong Delta Provinces National sources are mainly used for climate change response investments, regardless of the individual provincial tax base and how big lottery incomes are Most sources with provincial origins are being spent for education, health or transportation and roads Hence the lack of climate responsive spending from provincial sources does not offer much room for criticism The finding about the lion’s share origin of climate investment sources rather leads to the hypothesis that investments, especially in coastal protection and dykes, but also inland waterway embankments and erosion protection as well as larger irrigation and saline water intrusion prevention projects depend on national funding and nationally steered planning Another major conclusion though picks up on the finding that provincial climate change response investments mark a significant dependency on central government funding Of course dependency provides negative associations, especially in a highly decentralized context Also the principal of subsidiarity states that no higher-level public agency should 47 attempt to what a lower-level agency can better And this seems to be one of the core questions for Vietnam’s implementation of climate change strategies Are provinces, as the main lower administrative level, able to handle climate change response and related mitigation and adaptation investments better than central government? The nature of the majority of climate responsive infrastructure investments e.g for coastal protection and inland irrigation suggests differently for a number of reasons First, most infrastructure investments require technical expertise and capacities which are hardly to be found in every single province and rather available at national level Second and probably more important however, is the fact that the Mekong Delta proves to be a common geographical region that shows not only a huge number of similarities but interdependencies Every coastal intervention in one province can lead to consequences in neighboring provinces down or up the coastline or related to its fresh and saltwater regime To avoid negative lock-in effects and to ensure investment prioritization along vulnerability criteria instead of rather equal provincial fund distribution, a more centralized strategic approach to include the entire coastline of the Mekong Delta is thus a necessary condition NTPs or the mentioned Decision 667 for the dyke construction and routing from Quang Ngai to Kien Giang are examples for the needed national influence on climate responsive planning And yet, although funding dependency is given, actual on-site planning and implementation of provincial measures is often characterized by negotiations between national ministries and provinces The results are often compromising and it remains an open question whether the national fund allocations always follow a streamlined regional approach Instead experiences in the four examined provinces also indicate piece-meal solutions e.g concerning coastal protection measures, which rather lead to the hypothesis that competition between Mekong Delta provinces determines funding allocations more than regional strategic views The Prime Minister’s Decision 593 from 2016 stresses the importance of a regional coordination mechanism which could incorporate both, the national and provincial views and demands and leads to much more efficient ways for appropriate investment decisions As Decision 593 is also highlighted as one of the connections to NDC task #67, the planning and budgeting landscape for climate responsive investments might also change 48 ITERATIVE STEPS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE PLANNING 49 The findings and results of chapter shed light on the actual provincial planning figures and commitments towards climate change response In the light of strengthening MRV, it has to be noted that this ex-post analysis provides straight answers to “R” reporting and “V” verification Although the above initiated analysis leaves questions concerning the linkage between national climate change strategy formulation and implementation verification so far unanswered, a follow-up to this survey should highlight this connection At best, such verification would offer PPCs and technical implementers a chance to better align investment planning to given national requirements National policy makers on the one hand would receive feedback to also conclude whether national targets are realistic or too ambitious for provincial implementation or whether interfaces in the translation between policy (e.g laws, decisions, strategies) and the formulation of practical guidelines are missing Already now, linkages between the NDC tasks and both single line item investments and the applied CPEIR typology (especially Climate Change Delivery) apparently offer ways for a much better synchronization between the Paris Agreement and provincial implementation investment is mainly within the responsibility of other sector ministries or departments at provincial level As the TOP line item tables in the previous chapter show, the vast majority of provincial TOP line item investments for climate change response are planned by DARD Irrigation, agriculture but also coastal protection and forestry are all areas for which DARD is responsible Other important provincial departments are the DoC and DoT, as they mainly subscribe to questions related to climate proof urban infrastructure and transportation In general, this implies functioning iterative loops characterized by a rather high level of “guided change” instead of a top-down “directed change” process (Buono; Kerber, 2009) It remains to be analyzed whether “guided change”, based on cooperation between actors is feasible in Vietnam, e.g between central government and provincial level Sluggish reaction time of either central government or provinces to adjust climate change targets or implementation practices would of course hamper the process In light of the Paris Agreement’s binding timeline, one question for the nearer future will be whether a national MRV system based on ex-post tagging and tracking will allow for needed adjustments and also create room to formulate even higher ambitious targets and milestones in year steps A procedural mechanism which includes the involvement of different national and provincial actors to cooperate on verification questions however, is yet to be established Another shortcoming so far is also the lack of a horizontal, inter-sectoral approach at provincial level The analysis above is a result of the cooperation between the provincial DPIs and GIZ It has been mainly DPI staff to participate in trainings and to organise internal task forces to gather all necessary investment plan data to ensure a classification by hindsight Although the DPIs are the main responsible sector departments at provincial level to overlook the investment planning, the initial proposal and of course final execution of climate response Although climate models and down-scaling abilities have become more accurate in recent years, extreme weather events and the difficulty to calculate appropriate contingencies lead to higher uncertainty, especially at local level Using MRVs to also accelerate reaction time of public serve providers has thus to be seen as a managerial asset for the future This survey recommends a piecemeal approach which focuses on a potential adjustment of the planning procedure, based on an ex-ante budget classification Diagram below shows the 50 hierarchy and the top-down flow of the climate planning process Although Vietnam’s Central Party Committee Resolution and both the National Climate Change Strategy as well as the Vietnam Green Growth Strategy have been in place since 2011 and 2012, the Paris Agreement and Vietnam’s NDC are now internationally recognized and will be the focus until 2030 In the course of establishing an appropriate MRV system, the harmonization of both levels, international and national will be important This is true as all subsequent provincial climate responsive planning and implementation efforts are supposed to be based on the 2011 and 2012 national strategies But besides this rather high level synchronization, this survey emphasis on the interface between “Provincial Action Plans to Respond to Climate Change”/ “Provincial Green Growth Strategies” and annual investment budget planning Diagram 6: Suggestion for future CC&GG investment planning and tracking (author’s diagram) 51 actions with the above mentioned individual sector plans, it will be highly unlikely that investment proposals reflect climate change and take targets into account At provincial level a higher degree of horizontal coordination with a key role for the DPIs seems to be important for success Already in the aftermath of the 2011 National Climate Change Strategy, provinces under the leadership of the DoNREs established Provincial Task Forces or Steering Groups to allow for mainly adaptation action plan formulation Many provinces did not have an appropriate follow-up system to either monitor or evaluate the adequacy of the action plans, although they exist on paper Even more important was the fact that the Provincial Action Plan to Respond to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise has always seen as stand-alone document without the necessary linkages to other already existing sectorial plans In retrospect, this has made many response actions plans toothless As highlighted in the previous chapter of results from the provinces, mainly DARD, but also DoC and DoT are planning climate responsive investments Therefore both, the year medium-term strategy planning and annual planning cycle must ensure the synchronization of all relevant sector strategies and plans with both provincial adaptation and mitigation strategies (climate response and Green Growth) As the lead agency for investment planning at provincial level, DPI could lead a facilitation role Probably the most important aspect of the investment planning process after a medium-term strategy formulation is the elaboration of the sectorial investment proposals Dependent on the nature of the investment, a proposal rolls out a funding time line for subsequent years to be followed As Commitment Appropriations (CA) are not granted for a multi-year investment roll-out, continuous funding for on-going investment projects has to be planned and approved on an annual basis The proposal process is initiated by the respective sector department, coordinated by DPI and finally approved by the Provincial People’s Committee and Council Without synchronization of the climate change As an investment planning facilitator, DPI would need to initiate a broader sensitization and training approach, to include the most relevant sector departments such as DARD, DoC, DoT, DoNRE, DoH, DoST and DoLISA in this harmonization effort of climate and sector planning With a multitude of 63 provinces in Vietnam or 13 provinces in the Mekong Delta, external support from MPI as well as respective donor agencies seems decisive Interprovincial capacity development and training approaches probably also increase the efficiency for upscaling Experience in the Mekong Delta has shown that many provincial departments have not yet been sufficiently exposed to climate change related questions and insufficiently enabled to mainstream adaptation or mitigation considerations into their field of work GIZ’s capacity development approaches e.g have empathized on the mainstreaming and gap bridging e.g with the DARDs through coastal protection and management planning in relation to sea level rise and erosion or even in cooperation with DoLISA and newly developed viewpoints to include vulnerabilities due to climate change into Gender Equality Action Planning (GEAP) Only this horizontal involvement of different actors to recognize investments e.g in dyke upgrading and to realize the “mainstreaming” contributions e.g for livelihood improvements with a special gender and vulnerability focus or “climate proofing” of flood risk roads will ensure a thorough application of climate strategies at provincial level As a result, sector departments will be better equipped to formulate multi-year investment proposals with active reference to provincial climate strategies (adaptation or Green Growth) 52 and potentially the NDC In addition, a “pretagging” or classification could be introduced in which the sector departments already rate their proposed investments in line with the CPEIR categories (PG, CCA, ST and also GG) and the associated CC&GG coefficient In the process of collecting all sectoral investment proposals on an annual basis, DPI would exercise another check (in accordance with DoNRE) regarding all made references and the accuracy of the “pretagging” Potentially an extra list, which summarizes all climate relevant annual investments, could support PPC throughout the approval process and also during yearly negotiations with central government for obtaining NTP funding A real-time monitoring (“M”) might thus offer more action to also improve iterative policy loops and to strengthen interfaces between the needed quick reaction due to extreme weather events and public service provision to ensure appropriate resilience 53 Bibliography Biggs, David (2010): Quagmire Weyerhaeuser Environmental Books 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Contribution of Vietnam – Annex, Plan for the Implementation of the Paris Agreement, Hanoi Ministry of Planning and Investment (2016): CPEIR – Climate Change and Green Growth Investment Tagging and Tracking in Vietnam, Hanoi Ministry of Planning and Investment (2015): Financing Vietnam’s Response to Climate Change – Climate Public Expenditure Review, Hanoi OECD (2011): OECD-DAC Marker Handbook, Paris OECD, ENVIRONET-WP-STAT TASK TEAM (2014): First Experts’ Meeting of the Joint Environet and WPSTAT Task Team on OECD Rio Markers, 20-21 March 2014 PEFA (2013): Vietnam - Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) Public Financial Management Performance Assessment July 2013 Poister, Theodore H (2008) Measuring Performance in Public and Nonprofit Organizations John Wiley & Sons p 63 UNFCCC (2015) Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (decision 1/CP.17) Adoption of a protocol, another legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties UNFCCC /CP/2015/L9/Rev.1 UNFCCC (2016): Paris Agreement (19.01.2016) 54 Imprint Published by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Registered offices Bonn and Eschborn, Germany Integrated Coastal Management Programme (ICMP) Room K1A, No.14 Thuy Khue Road, Tay Ho Hanoi, Viet Nam www.giz.de/viet-nam icmp@giz.de As at May 2017 Printed by Xxxxx Photo credits GIZ Author Benjamin Hodick In cooperation with Silke Bommersheim, Bui Hoa Binh, Son Thanh Phuc, Phan Thanh Tinh GIZ is responsible for the content of this publication On behalf of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) 55