TỔNG QUAN KINH tế VIỆT NAM 2012 và TRIỂN VỌNG 2020 e

TỔNG QUAN KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM 2012 TRIỂN VỌNG 2020 Part I: OVERVIEW OF VIETNAM’S ECONOMY IN 2012 and PROSPECTS IN 2020 I - Important achievements of inflation control, macro-economic stability in the difficult conditions of the world economy Unpredictable context of the world economy In 2012, the world economy continues to have large uncertainties, reflecting the trend in the economic recovery in a difficult situation In early 2012, all the international financial institutions have continuously adjusted forecast, sometimes up, sometimes down, and the results are quite different In particular, despite differences, the assessments have a common feature of showing that the year 2012 will be the most difficult year, with the lowest economic and industrial growth, the worst commerce, etc all over the world including the high-income economies, developing economies, and emerging economies such as China, India, etc Source: The economist and WB Developing Trends in July 2012 Forecast of the world and the regional economy showed that economic growth rate in 2012 is the lowest in five years for most economies and may recover slightly in 2020, but overall, cannot return to a normal level by 2015 Compared with 2008 and 2009, the economies in the region have tended to decline in a row in 2010 and 2011 and to the year 2012, to take steps to recover slightly in 2020 Economic slowdown in the EURO zone economies in general, not only the economies of Greece, Spain, and Italy, but also developing economies such as Germany, France, even UK have suffered from recession after two quarters of “negative growth” in a row, etc As a result, this economic decline has had an adverse impact on the import and export, foreign direct investment FDI in this sector on countries such as China and Vietnam Focus on curbing inflation successfully In the context of the unpredictable world economic decline, Vietnam has planned to focus on the target of macro-economic stability, curb inflation and ensure a proper growth properly The Resolution No 11/2011/NQ-CP been followed by the recent Resolutions of the Meeting of the Party Central Committee (3rd Meeting of the Party Central Committee on the restructuring of the economy and innovation of growth model); the National Assembly's Resolution on socio-economic development plan in 2012 and the Government’s Resolution No 01/2012/NQ-CP on operation in 2012; Resolution No 13/2012/NQ-CP on solving difficulties in production, business, market support, etc With the right policy and determined direction of senior leaders in the industry and localities, the inflation shown by the CPI in consecutive months have been adjusted successfully, monthly CPI has decreased steadily since August 2011, despite the slightly increasing impact during Tet holiday Inflation in August 2011 (compared with the same period) was 23% and reduced to 5% in August 2012 Although there may be fluctuations in the monetary system, prices of agricultural products and petroleum, as well as health services, education, etc., according to preliminary forecasts of Ministry of Planning and Investment conducted in late August 2012, in Dec 20120, CPI would increase by approximately 7-8%, and the average annual CPI would increase by 8.5 to 9.5% over the same period A root cause of this achievement is reasonable policy to regulate the money supply, ensure the quite good balance between money and goods In comparison with the increase in investment in the context of stimulus in 2009 and easy credit in 2010, the currency control in 2012 has achieved a certain result, after initial changes in 2011 Despite a tight control, when necessary, the State Bank of Vietnam has pumped money into the market through official channels (such as investment support, including government bonds, liquidity support for commercial banks through open market) and after that, used the measures to withdraw money fast That creates a large money supply (M2), but little money (especially cash) actually participating in traffic, through measures to collect money, especially cash to the State Bank of Vietnam n addition, in 2012 the money supply through credit channel also significantly reduced due to the very difficult credit activities, increasing less than 2% after months, due to both the businesses (difficult consumption, many inventories) and liquidity of commercial banks (bad debts) Among the factors to decrease in inflation in 2012, about half of them are good monetary operation which has stabilized the supply-demand of goods-money In addition, in early year, the price of oil and energy, in general in the world has been quite stable In addition, price of food in the country has been stabilized, having a positive impact on inflation reduction However, in late year, especially in the fourth quarter, many new effects reflected in increase in CPI due to increase in the price of fuel, health services, education, etc and even food For only solutions of "price stability" of some localities, they has not had much practical effects, despite good psychological effects Source: Cafef.vn Factors leading to the reduction of inflation in Vietnam also include decrease in the input price of imports in the context of exchange rate stability, leading to decrease in CPI more successfully than expected However, concern about stagnation has partially relieved the pleasure of successfully curbed inflation In general, the direction of continued inflation control, and macro-economic stability is an absolutely right decision which should be maintained in the medium to long term It is forecasted that CPI may increase by 7-8% in the whole year without significant changes (8-9% for average annual increase) Although this price increase is relatively high compared to other countries in the region and the world, CPI has decreased significantly compared with 2011 and recent years in Vietnam It is warned that too much money bumped out, operation of the market price, especially food price by region, and unstable petrol price can lead to increase in inflation in 2020 and following years Source: Chinhphu.vn However, if fuel and food factor are ignored while controlling core inflation, it will be still high Therefore, inflation should be curbed patiently Graph of inflation and basic inflation in Vietnam - Source: JPMorgan Macroeconomic stability Among the indicators of macroeconomic stability, indicators of finance, banking, exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, sometimes import- export, international payment balance, job, etc can be recognized Economic growth: In addition to achievements in curbing inflation, Vietnam's economy has been growing at about 5% in the context of difficulties in the world's economy This is an appropriate growth rate to adapt to general difficulties in import and export, poor competitiveness, etc In the context of sharp decline of the world's economy, despite a certain decline, Vietnam's economy has maintained a growth rate of more than 5%, higher than the lowest level in 1999 (4.77%) affected by the East Asian financial crisis Therefore, when the global economy continues to decline and prospects weakly, it will be affected by the East Asian financial crisis Therefore, when the global economy continues to decline and the monetary, financial and social security systems can lead to macroeconomic instability, then some unpredictable disturbance of social politics The exchange rate has remained stable after a period of strong adjustment in recent years, even too strong adjustment in early 2011 Movements in the exchange rate USD / USD Remittance has increased sharply (up to $ billion in the last months), which have created favourable conditions for the State Bank of Vietnam to buy a large amount of foreign currency and then withdraw cash in circulation using the banking measures On the basis of the exchange rate stability, Vietnam has also enhanced currency reserves in a stable manner In only 2012, value of purchased foreign currencies rose by almost $ 10 billion Foreign exchange reserves reached the highest level in three years Export has also grown strongly In 2012, despite the difficulties, the export growth rate has remained over 15% with export items with a great value such as computers, phones, etc By maintaining a strong participation in global value chain, export growth of the FDI countries has been rather high (except for oil and gas), reaching 35-40% However, few local firms have not participated in the global value chain These are extreme weakness, affecting the growth rate in 2012 It is required to focus on this issue in the medium and long term This can be solved only if the immediate economic issues are associated with restructuring in the medium and long term, especially in the three most important stages such as state-owned enterprises, public investment and the monetary financial system, etc towards a more efficient economy in the way of building a new growth model The stability in macro balance Accumulation rates remain at a reasonable level, with the decline in public investment and the FDI investment which have led to a sharp systematic decrease in the proportion of investments/GPD As a result, the growth rate has been reduced by about 5% appropriately, while the economies of the world have fallen sharply Current account balance has improved thanks to a stable remittance inflow while the trade deficit fell sharply Overall balance has been positive at $ 7-8 billion thanks to a positive external capital of $ 7-8 billion However, recent changes in handling with fraud in shady bank takeover activity reflect a bad management with no improvement In particular, the budget balance in 2012 faced with many difficulties when income from export, import and tax for production and business activities as well as from land, etc has decreased sharply As at August 15th 2012, total state budget is estimated at 418 trillion VND, equivalent to 56.5%; total budget cost estimated at 534 trillion VND, accounting for 59.1% of the estimate Excessive collection like before would be negligible, causing difficulties for the central and local budget Economic restructuring has been implemented with focus on key stages including investment, monetary banks and state-owned enterprises Investment restructuring is with focus on public investment towards gradual decrease in the proportion and efficiency improvement The implementation of 1792 Directive on public investment has been followed by the Resolution of National Assembly on stabilizing Government bond until the end of 2015 and implementation of the intention of building medium-term investment plan That activity has made industries and localities pay attention to efficient use of public investment The development of mechanism and policies of orientation and creation of favourable conditions for promoting socialization in investment activities, especially in the form of Public Private Partnership PPP has been focused Industries and localities have also focused on improving the quality and sustainability of foreign direct investment Restructuring the financial market with focus on restructuring of the banking system and the financial institutions has been deployed initially, but still confusing when commercial banks face with huge bad debts In fact, the manner of “more is said than done” in "improving service quality and increase the system safety; decreasing the mobilization of investment mainly from bank credit; creating favourable conditions for businesses to raise capital investment from the capital market; strictly controlling the operation of securities companies", even "increasing the efficiency of insurance activities; effectively control the investment funds; preventing the speculation of manipulation the market " has many weaknesses, even some manipulating group were arrested by the police Regarding this problem, both method of preparing for risks and propaganda are essential to prevent unforeseen adverse effects Regarding this field, public finance should also be considered carefully when both regular expenditures and investments are out of the budget and divided between the central and local level, causing difficulties in investment restructuring, along with regular savings Both public investment and public spending in general have been controlled as required, making budget imbalance more serious in the context of stagnated production If public spending is not cut, it will make budget imbalance more serious Restructuring of enterprises of all economic sectors, with focus on the economic groups, and state-owned corporations is a strategic work, but deployed slowly due to traditional thinking of the position of the State-owned enterprises By inspection, the "improvement of capacity of the state-owned management; transparency of financial results and production and business activities contributing to the safety of the economy," are stated in the Resolution but not implemented strongly in the context of many bad debts for state-owned enterprises In 2012, "increasing access to capital of small and medium enterprises, exporters, agro-processing enterprises, producing consumer goods for people's lives, creating jobs and income for workers" has not done well In general, along with inflation curbing, macroeconomic stabilization has achieved initial results and should be maintained in the long term, creating favourable conditions for economic restructuring in the medium and long term, towards productivity, quality, efficiency, and competitiveness in the market Macroeconomic imbalance for many years has been a root reason for rising inflation, directly affecting people's lives adn social psychology II - The typical development policy in banking, finance and business, and a number of weaknesses in policies and operation Public debt and bad debt: The problem of bad debts faced by banks is partly due to inability to pay big debts by enterprises due to economic difficulties, and partly the quality However, we can see that Vietnam's bad debt concept is different from international practice, so it is impossible to compare between them (Vietnam’s concept considers the debts which cannot be paid timely as bad debts, and international concept considers the entire loan project with unpaid debts as bad debts) Therefore, not only insufficient declaration but also this concept leads to increase in bad debt, not just at 202 thousand trillion dong (equivalent to nearly 10 billion USD) The data will also be incorrect due to the method of “funding” by borrowers The bad debt also has a negative impact on enterprises and commercial banks, as well as security of national finance It is required to use a variety of interventions, especially the support of the State and the activeness of the commercial banks, and coordination with the business: - The banks use their backup tools, as well as implement the restructuring of enterprises and banks for purpose of a healthier bad debt status This problem can be treated to mitigate a bad debt situation - For a healthier bad debt status, according to the experience of many countries, the participation of the State Bank of Vietnam, the Ministry of Finance and the various monitoring agencies is necessary to enable the State to actively support the market The transparency of such process is the most important with the unified direction to avoid abuse Enterprise stagnancy: High bad debt status (according to official figures, at least $ 10 billion), and many inventories (20%) are just some manifestations of the state of stagnation of enterprises According to statistics updated continuously by the Ministry of Planning and Investment, about 30% of registered businesses have not worked and paid tax According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the current problem is decrease in the number of new enterprises and increase in the number of ones which have to narrow, suspend or stop their production and business activity That shows that Vietnamese enterprises are facing many difficulties Moreover, in the difficult economic condition in 2012, about more 8% of registered enterprises had to stop their production or went bankrupt (registered or unregistered) because they can not survive in the rigorous conditions in the market Prosperity of the enterprises under the Enterprise Act 1999 and all types of enterprises operating under the Enterprise Law (unified) in 2005 has been a foundation for economic development, especially when Vietnam has become a member of the World Trade Organization WTO However, the difficulty faced by the enterprise in 2012 has been very clear By the end of 2011, there were about 1309 State-owned enterprises, producing about 27 percent of GDP, as an important element of the entire state sector (other areas of the state sector accounting for only 10%) However, many State-owned enterprises did business inefficiently; even large corporations had so many debts Therefore, it State-owned enterprises are required to strengthen the reform with new thinking about the position of state-owned enterprises and the public sector in general in the economy Domestic private enterprises not only stagnated in production due to lack of capital and limited domestic consumption, but also declined in exports In eight months of 2012, domestic exports fell 1.9% in value due to no control of the global production and business chain (GVA) Despite a production growth and a sharp increase in export, the quality of business operations of FDI enterprises has been limited They even declared incorrect loss (sometime price transfer) Their application and transfer of high technology in Vietnam are limited The decrease in the CPI of Binh Duong Province has been partially due to its change in the policy of more careful selection of enterprises, including FDI investment in the area III FDI situation General situation Foreign direct invest from the beginning of the year to August 24 th 2011 reached $ 9567.6 million, accounting for 73.8% of in the same period in 2010, including U.S $ 7943.3 million of the registered capital of 582 projects with new license (decrease by 30% in capital and 34.2% in the number of projects over the same period last year); U.S $ 1624.3 million of additional registered capital of 168 projects licensed from previous years Foreign direct investment eight months of 2011 were estimated at $ 7.3 billion, an increase by 0.7% compared to the same period last year In the economic sectors attracting foreign investments in eight months of this year, the processing and manufacturing industry have had the largest registered capital of U.S $ 4614 million, including U.S $ 3590.6 million registered capital and the U.S $ 1023.4 million additional capital; production and distribution of electricity, gas, hot water, steam and air conditioning reached 2525.3 million USD registered capital; construction sector reached U.S $ 670.9 million, including U.S $ 529.3 million registered capital and $ 141.6 million additional capital In eight months, all over the country, 43 provinces and cities directly under the Central Government have foreign direct investment projects were licensed; including the biggest registered capital of U.S $ 2472.7 million of Hai Duong Province, accounting for 31, 1% of total registered capital; followed by Ho Chi Minh City with 1601.6 million USD, accounting for 20.2%; Ba Ria-Vung Tau 548 million USD, accounting for 6.9%; Hanoi 446 million USD, accounting for 5,6%; Tay Ninh 436 million USD, accounting for 5.5%; Hung Yen 278.4 million USD, accounting for 3.5% Among 39 countries and territories investing in Vietnam for eight months in 2011, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China) is the largest investor with U.S $ 2797.4 million, accounting for 35.2% of total registered capital; followed by Singapore with 1330.9 million USD, accounting for 16.8%; Japan 642.2 million USD, accounting for 8.1%; PRC 461.4 million USD, accounting for 5, 8%; Korea 412.9 million USD, accounting for 5.2%; Malaysia 346.9 million USD, accounting for 4.4% Investment sector Processing and manufacturing industry are the ones attracting most foreign investors with 263 registered projects, an increase by USD $ 4.61 billion in total registered and addition capital, accounting for 48.2% of the total registered investment in eight months The industry of electricity production and distribution is ranked second with total registered and addition investment capital of U.S $ 2.53 billion, accounting for 26.4% of total investment It is followed by the construction industry with 70 new investment projects with total registered and addition investment capital of U.S $ 670.9 million, accounting for 7% The next is accommodation and catering service with total registered and addition investment capital of U.S $ 446.6 million, accounting for 4.7% Investment partner Since the beginning of 2011, 42 countries and territories have invested in Vietnam Hong Kong has invested most with total registered and addition investment capital of U.S $ 2.89 billion, accounting for 30.3% of total investment in Vietnam; Singapore is ranked second with total registered and addition investment capital of U.S $ 1.45 billion, accounting for 15.2% of total investment; South Korea is ranked third with total registered and addition investment capital of U.S $ 851.5 million, accounting for 8, 9% of the total investment; it is followed by Japan total registered and addition investment capital of U.S $ 844.4 million, accounting for 8.8% of total investment in Vietnam China is ranked fifth with total registered and addition investment capital of U.S $ 512 million, accounting for 5.4% of total investment in Vietnam Areas of investment So far, Hai Duong has been the locality attracting most state investments with a value of US $ 2.49 billion of with total registered and addition investment capital of U.S $, accounting for 26.1% of the total capital investment Ho Chi Minh City is ranked second with a total registered and addition investment capital of U.S $1.65 billion, accounting for 17.3% Ba Ria - Vung Tau province is ranked third with total registered and addition investment capital of U.S $ 580 million It is followed by Hanoi, Tay Ninh and Hai Phong, with registered capital of U.S $ 517.3 million; $ 445 million and $ 447.2 million respectively In term of region, the Red River Delta region has been the region attracting most state investments with total new investment of more than billion, accounting for 42.6% of the total registered investment capital of the country It is followed by the South East with a total registered and addition capital investment of U.S $ 3.77 billion, accounting for 39.4% of the total registered capital Central Highlands has been the region less FDI, accounting for only 0.1% of the total registered capital A number of big projects licensed in 2011include JAKS Hai Duong Power Company Ltd (BOT Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant) with total registered capital of 2.26 billion USD; the project of First Solar Vietnam Manufacturing Company Ltd, in the field of processing and manufacturing industry funded by Singapore in Ho Chi Minh City with a total investment of more than $ billion; the project of Viet Luan Tires Company Ltd with a total investment of $ 400 million in the field of tire manufacturing sector funded by China; the project of NSG Vietnam Special Glass Co., Ltd with partnership between Vietnam and Pilkington Group Ltd (PGL) – United Kingdom with a total investment of $ 323.01 million aiming at production and consumption of glass in Ba Ria - Vung Tau Attraction of foreign direct investment in 2011 by sector Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment Some of the problems in attracting FDI in Vietnam In the whole period 2001-2010 (as of Dec 21 st 2010), Vietnam attracted 12,213 projects with a total registered capital of $ 192.9 billion and executed capital of about 63 billion dollars, an average of 16.2 million USD / project and $ 5.5 million / project when considering respectively by the annually registered capital and executed capital In comparison with other developing countries in this period, Vietnam is one of 15 countries receiving the largest FDI in the world However, besides the above successes, FDI attracting activity in the past has remained some great problems Consideration of the quality of investment shows that recent foreign investments in Vietnam contain some concerning risks These are: (i) the risk of "hype" of capital and profit; (ii) the risk of requirement of too great source of energy, natural resources and land; (iii) the risk of environment pollution; (iv) the risk of inconsistency with development plans causing structural imbalance in the long-term development of the country; (v) the risk of use of out-dated technology; (vi) the risk of the "capital withdrawal" of the private sector in the country;, and (vii) the risk of a shortage of foreign currency and the exchange rate risk in the future Firstly, so far, some localities have focused on number of projects and number of commitments although this situation is changing Some localities have accepted FDI projects with big commitments, despite no careful preparation and clarification of the feasibility, when the committed (promised) investment has a value several times higher than that of charter capital (mobilized) and executed capital, especially available capital transferred from foreign countries In terms of decentralization and division, this assumption is quite common; focus on registered capital (promised) with no adequate attention to implementation can create the spread in the economy Secondly, considering the economy overall, the direct contribution of FDI and the export to the economic growth have been recognized However, Vietnam’s economy has not promoted these important factors In other words, the appeal of Vietnam’s economy to foreign investors seems to still rely on static advantages more than 20 years ago: cheap labour and natural resources The economy has not created advantages such as productivity, and technology level These advantages are promoted by economic growth, leading to more attractive FDI In other words, Vietnam in general and FIEs in Vietnam in particular are continuing to develop the width but not develop depth Thirdly, the mutual relationship between FDI and exports has no evidence In addition, when crude oil is excluded, FIEs are ones suffering from trade deficit So far, FDI has contributed to improving the payment balance, but mainly through the capital account The dream of improvement of the trade balance has not become true, even reversed Fourthly, under the business perspective, the FIEs have a low labour productivity and business efficiency Over 50% of FIEs have lost continuously, but in general, the coefficient of capital use of FIEs area is quite high This shows that most small-scale businesses are easy to move to other countries when the incentives are no longer provided These businesses are also likely to implement price transfer procedures in order to avoid income tax Fifthly, FIEs in Vietnam are mainly invested by subsidiaries of second or third generation of multi-national companies So far, only four multinational companies have made direct investment into Vietnam This limits the opportunity of get access to technology for Vietnamese companies On the other hand, it also increases the risk of price transfer activities between subsidiaries in Vietnam and holding companies located in foreign countries Sixthly, the preferential policies for investment in key sectors and regions showed no effect The investment sectors are mainly industries using many workers and resources Incentives for high-tech industry, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, seem not to be convincing enough to foreign investors in this field Similarly, the priority areas of investment are not destinations of foreign investors Only six cities: Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Dong Nai, Binh Duong and Ninh Thuan province account for 67% of total registered FDI and only 21 out of 63 provinces have more $ billion of FDI These provinces are coastal ones with aviation port and core transport line IV Forecast for 2020 The world economy continues to be complicated and unpredictable, having an adverse impact on the economy of countries and Vietnam, especially trade and investment World economic situation continues to be difficult, especially in Western Europe and Germany which are likely to go into recession following UK, due to consecutive negative growth in third and forth quarter, etc In addition, Greece, and Spain also face with so many difficulties; unemployment rate in Europe is too high The economic forecasts are generally worse; decline in trade has a serious impact on the Asian regional economy For Vietnam, economic difficulty for a long term has been affecting Vietnam, especially in trade and investment In addition, diplomatic issues are quite complex, especially with China Source: IMF, "The Economist" and WB Developing Trends in July2012 The forecasts of other institutions show a continued difficulty and slow recovery, in which China and India face difficulties in both two years It is also difficult for South Korea and Japan This will affect Vietnam in recognizing and determining the objectives and tasks of the plan from 2020 to 2015 That should be clarified in the report to the Central Government and the National Assembly of Vietnam Facing such difficulties, the objective of the plan in 2020 and the period up to 2015 is to maintain macroeconomic stability, including maintaining inflation control achievement, restructuring the economy, contributing to improvement of the efficiency and competitiveness of the economy in the condition of innovation and international integration According to Moody's Investors Service on August 08 th 2012, Vietnam is forecasted to achieve a growth rate of only 4.8 percent (like 1999) and a possible higher rate in 2020, at 5.2% Accompanying forecast is underestimated, but is noteworthy because it coincides with the predictions of a sharp decrease in total consumption demand (final) and investment, as well as the difficulty in an increase in export by more than 20% as in previous years Even the assessment of the ratio of investment / GDP is higher than the period 2011/2012 are unreliable due to credit constraints for private sector, the decline in actual FDI and investment scale without big growth, so the ratio of total investment / GDP will be only about 30% or a bit more This will continue to make growth in 2020 lower, only about 5-6% Therefore, to ensure a successful process of restructuring the economy, macro-economic stability and growth quality assurance become the most important issue Economic forecasts of Moody's Investors Service on August 08th 2012 PART II: INVESTMENT IN VIETNAM Foreign investment in Vietnam has reduced by about 1/3 from Sept 2011for a number of reasons such as economic slowdown, inflation, high debt level, and the impact of the declining real estate market, etc but investors are still interested in the Vietnamese market Most foreign businesses doing business in Vietnam will continue to focus on long-term strategy and build a real value in this market " We believe that Vietnam will soon overcome the recent difficulties than expected "Although the growth rate of Vietnam's economy is slowing down, a recent report by the World Bank (WB) has forecasted the growth rate of Vietnam's economy at 5.2% in 2012 and 5.7% in 2020" Four main reasons for investors to consider investment in Vietnam in the near future: Firstly, Vietnam is changing Previously, loans for businesses doing business inefficiently have led to an increasing level of bad debt in Vietnam and a pressure on the economy However, at present, the Vietnamese Government has been taking steps to address the problems in the banking system Secondly, the economic growth rate of Vietnam will be stable Vietnam's growth rate is expected to increase to an average of around 5% in next two years This is a sustainable growth and will not cause a high inflation, and also help Vietnam to prepare for the economic integration of the ASEAN Economic Community Thirdly, Vietnam can be seen as a springboard to capture opportunities in the neighbouring countries including Laos and Cambodia Vietnam can be the door for investors to get access to two these dynamic markets, by direct approach or through affiliates in Vietnam Fourthly, Vietnamese market can help save costs Many Vietnamese companies want to sell their assets due to lack of focus in investment in the past; and this can provide a good opportunity for Thailand to acquire the companies to expand their operations In addition, labour cost in Vietnam is significantly lower than that in other ASEAN countries, helping to reduce costs for newly established businesses One reason for decrease in foreign investment in Vietnam in recent years is a strong competition of other ASEAN countries to attract new investment capital This is really a good opportunity for investors to make investment in Vietnam We also recommend that an ideal investment strategy for foreign companies is arrangement of investments in ASEAN countries, to take advantage of the competitive advantage of each country, the benefits of supply chain and spread risks  ... reduction However, in late year, especially in the fourth quarter, many new effects reflected in increase in CPI due to increase in the price of fuel, health services, education, etc and even food... many debts Therefore, it State-owned enterprises are required to strengthen the reform with new thinking about the position of state-owned enterprises and the public sector in general in the economy... Vietnamese Government has been taking steps to address the problems in the banking system Secondly, the economic growth rate of Vietnam will be stable Vietnam''s growth rate is expected to increase