Bài tập quản trị rủi ro: Liên đoàn bóng đá X Liên đoàn bóng đá X là 1 tổ chức thể thao quốc gia có trách nhiệm tổ chức các cuộc thi đấu các giải trong nước và tham gia các giải khu vực. Những thành viên của liên đoàn là các liên
Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 1 !∀# ∃ ∃% &∋ &∋ &∋ ∃% ∃ !! ∀#! ()∗ )+,−./− 0 &∋ 1% 1% 1% &∋ 0 (∃23456∗/−71 8∋0∃8&%%8%%908%∃98&0198∃&778∃ :;43456∗/−71 8∃9<∃% ∃ ∃!%&!!&!!∋()∗+, −./. 0 ∃!%&!&!!)∗+, 1234/−2.5 5 64/ 7&!!!,08 / 95 95 695:5 9 / ∋ !&!!∗+,.!&!!!,08;<=>? / !&!!∗+,.!%&!&!!3/> ≅? / ≅ Α Β∗;(∗!ΧD!Χ%;(;!∗+,∋().%! ∋;,∗,=. (ΕΧ∗!&!!!!+Φ1∀!()( = 7+∗;(<!&!!=)!%()()=()Ε!&!!!,08 ?/6≅ ≅ 7&!!!,08∗(!,Χ=9/ Γ=!Χ&∗!&!&!!2!&!!%=Ε)4 σ 7 /66 9√/66 7&!!=)!∗2∗;(∗!&!!Χ&Ε ;!!)ΕΗ= 4 7µ 7 /Εσ 7 /66 Φ1∀/5 966/6≅ ≅ Ι 7ϑ;(<Φ1∀Ε)!&!!!,08!,Κ= Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 2 6≅ ≅?/ 6 (Ε+;Ε)!ϑ=)∗Χ!!+!ϑ;)∗Χ=))!ϑ;)∗ΧΙ 66=Κ ΓΚ+!+!Λ(<Κ,∗,%=Ε)!8D+< ∋(%&!,!,<!&!&!!ΚΕ)!&!&!!!,08 & !∗ΧΜ!(02Ν4 /.Ε/ !∗!,08>/ 7&!!!,08∋Ε+&>9Ο/.Ο 0 !∗!,08>/ Γ=&> ≅ 9 9.42 ==− Π∗!+Θ;!∗!,08Ε+&.!> ΡΣ 9 ≅Ν5 9 ≅Τ/Ρ ≅Ν Τ Π∗!+Θ!&!!!,08Ε+&.!> Ρ.≅ΟΝ.≅ΟΤ !∗!,08>/. Γ=&> ≅ 9 9.42 ==− Π∗ ! + Θ ; ! ∗ !, 08 Ε +& . !> Ρ.Σ 9≅ Ν.5 9≅ Τ/Ρ.≅ Ν. ≅Τ Π∗!+Θ!&!!!,08Ε+&.! Ρ.≅Ν..≅Τ ∋ 7(0∗&;!∗Υ!,∗ ΡΝ0Τ/ΡΣ Ν5 ΤΕ);!#!!=Θ • Π/.∗ΡΝ0Τ/ΡΝΤ Ε)∗Ρ ≅Ν Τ.!!+;!%&;!∗Υ!, ∗ΡΝΤ∗)Θ %D+!%Μ0∗& • Π/..∗ΡΝ0Τ/Ρ.Ν.Τ Ε)∗Ρ.≅ Ν. ≅Τ.!!+;!%&;!∗Υ !,∗Ρ.Ν.Τ=))Θ %D+!%Μ!(0∗& • ς ) ∗ (< !( 0∗ & Ε 0∗ & %() %Μ !( ()!,8 42− / / / Β∗()!,8!,Χ.!W6≅ 7(0∗&;!∗Υ!,∗ ΡΝ0Τ/ΡΣ Ν5 Τ/ΡΝ ΤΕ);!#!!=Θ Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 3 • Π/.∗ΡΝ0Τ/ΡΝΤ Ε)∗Ρ ≅Ν Τ.!!+;!%&;!∗Υ!, ∗ΡΝΤ=))Θ %D+!%Μ!(0∗& • Π/..∗ΡΝ0Τ/ΡΝ.Τ Ε)∗Ρ.≅ Ν. ≅Τ.!!+;!%&;!∗Υ !,∗ΡΝ.Τ=))Θ %D+!%Μ!(0∗& • ς ) ∗ (< !( 0∗ & Ε 0∗ & %() %Μ !( ()!,8 42− / / / Β∗()!,8!,Χ.!W6 • Χ;∋(2Φ1∀4Ε+&.!> .Ο9 /.ΟΕ)∋;,∗,= Θ Χ ; ∋( 2Φ1∀4 Ε +& . !> .Ο9. ≅/..≅ΟΕ)∋;,∗,= Θ % !!,∗!ΧΧΧ1;;.!;=/ 2;!!,08!,4 12#!!!!,4 /Σ12Χ!!,4 /− Ξ − /6 6Θ 0 ΨΚ()∋∗D+!!=%.;(∗∋6=%!, <(;(∗∋=%!,6 ()%Χ+!(∋ ϑ;(∗∋=% 12#!!!!,64 /Σ12!,6!%=≅!4 Ζ+!;/ 2;!!,08!,64 ∃;!;!∗+,!,0∗∋()%Χ+ 6 ≅ 1 66 66 ≅ ≅ 7(%!!#%();!Κ!8= Θ 7(0∗&;!Υ!,∗ ΡΝ0Τ/ΡΝ 5 Τ/ΡΝ ΤΕ);!#!!=Θ Ψ)=;D;! ϑ&!!#%();!;!Υ!,∗ΡΝ0Τ= Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 4 ( ) [1 0 [10∃1 = ≤= − ≤=≤ 7(%! 6 ≅ 2≈= ∋;(∗∋=%!,6.+;(∗∋6=% !,!)!8;<D+!%Μ!(0∗& ∋ !)∋∋(%Μ;(∗∋=%!8 !=%!,08=6 ∀#!,08!!=6!, ∀#=+=6!, %(%∗!!,!)#!!=.∴=;!!, 08!,!∗!ΧΧ∗∗#!!= 6 1 5.0* 3 1 = !8 =+)%()=%!D∗ Ζ+∋ Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 5 =>?>≅=>Α2≅ΒΑ2Χ:D:2≅Χ: /− :;4 #Ε); )) ); )) Φ6Φ );)) ∗ Γ )ΗΦ 6Φ >ΓΗ45 :;)) ∗ Γ ) ΓΗ 45 . . ≅ ≅ ≅. . ≅ 6 . . ≅ . . 6 6 6. . ≅ 6 . . 6. . 6 . ≅. 6. ≅. ≅ ≅. ≅. ≅ ΑΦ# ,Η);)) );)) ;−4Ι ϑ5 Η) −−−≅ −−− −−− ≅ −−−6 6 ΑΦ# ,−5 3);)) :;)) ;−4Ι ϑ5 Η) −−−. . .−−−6. . 6.−−−. . .−−−. ≅. ≅ Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 6 ∃ :∗Η); )) ϑ5 Η) Κ5 3); )) ;−4Ι ϑ5 Η) −−− ≅ −−− ≅ −−−6 ≅ 1Χ∗!&!&!!!(Χ∗.=Κ :;4); )) ϑ5 Η) 6 6 6 ≅ 6 1Χ∗!&!&!!!(Χ∗.=Κ :;4); )) ϑ5 Η) ≅ ≅ 6 6 ≅ 6 Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 7 & ϑ5 Η) :∗Η);))Λ/− ≅ :: 9∋ 1Χ1;;∗!Κ;!&!!.!;= 6 ≅ Α ≅ 6 ≅ 6 6 % 7#!,Μ+Ε> Φ2Ζ4/1 Ζ Φ2Ζ4/.65.65.5.5./ 7#%=&> σ 2Ζ4/1 ΡΖ ΣΦ2Ζ4Τ Ζ 1 ΡΖ ΣΦ2Ζ4Τ 1 ΡΖ ΣΦ2Ζ4Τ .6 .6 . . . ≅ ≅≅ ≅ ≅≅ ≅ 6 ≅≅ ≅≅ Ψ+σ 2Ζ4/≅≅ %%=&> 21445,21434594600)()( 2 ≈=== LL σσ 7&!! 7Κ; .6 .6 . . . Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 8 6 7#;=> 3 3 3 )]([ )]([ )( L LMLP L ii σ α − = Ζ 1 ΡΖ ΣΦ2Ζ4Τ 6 1 ΡΖ ΣΦ2Ζ4Τ 6 .6 .6 . . . ≅≅ 6≅≅6 ≅ 6≅≅ Μ≅6 Μ≅6 Μ≅6≅ 6≅ &07%7&0%999 6 ≅≅ 2≅6 4 6≅6≅ 2Ζ4 6 6 == Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 9 Ν2Ο≅2Π≅:≅>2Θ2 2 Ρ19ΣΤ Ρ&9ΣΤ Ρ∋9ΣΤ Υ: ≅ ≅ ≅ Ι )5 )+5 ) 6 ≅ :Ρ%9ΣΤ 6 )5 )∗ ≅ 6 :;4)Η, Η))+ΦΠ>Α 9∋0 9%∋ 9∋1 ∃Ρ>Φ4)ςΟΥΥΚ≅ϑΤ ∃;! 6 ]⊥_7 ≅ Ζ< Ζ)!(!,()! ≅ 72≅Θ4 Ζ)!(!Κ ≅ ) 7&!;∗ ≅ ≅ ≅ Ζ);!!,ΧΨ∀1 6 Η))+4(W)+ΦΠ>Α 991 3Ξ3 ; 991% 23Η()Φ 911 Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 10 ∃;! 6 ]⊥_7 ≅ Ζ<2Θ4 Ζ)!(!,()! ≅ ≅ ≅ ≅ 72≅Θ4 Ζ)!(!Κ ≅≅≅≅ ≅≅ 6≅≅≅ )2Θ4 ≅ ≅ ≅ 7&!;∗ ≅ ≅ ≅ Ζ);!!,ΧΨ∀1 ≅ 6666 66 Η))+4(W)+ΦΠ>Α 9 3Ξ3 ; 99171 23Η()Φ 91&∋ ∃;! 6 ]⊥_7 ≅ Ζ<2Θ4 Ζ)!(!,()! 6 ≅6 6 − 72≅Θ4 6 − Ζ)!(!Κ − ≅ )2Θ4 7&!;∗ ≅ ≅ ≅ Ζ);!!,ΧΨ∀1 ≅ ≅ − Η))+4(W)+ΦΠ>Α 9%% 3Ξ3 ; 990 23Η()Φ 9<1 ∃;! 6 ]⊥_7 ≅ Ζ<2≅Θ4 Ζ)!(!,()! 6 ≅ ≅ − ≅ 72≅Θ4 ≅ − ≅ Ζ)!(!Κ ≅≅ ≅≅ − )2Θ4 ≅ ≅ ≅ 7&!;∗ ≅ ≅ ≅ Ζ);!!,ΧΨ∀1 6≅ ≅ − Η))+4(W)+ΦΠ>Α 9&< 3Ξ3 ; 9&1 23Η()Φ 970& . Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 1 . 7ϑ;(<Φ1∀Ε)!&!!!,08!,Κ= Qun tr Ri ro Th.s Trn Quang Trung 2 6≅ ≅?/ 6 (Ε+;Ε)!ϑ=)∗Χ!!+!ϑ;)∗Χ=))!ϑ;)∗ΧΙ