Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet Earth This page intentionally left blank Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet Earth Edited by Trevor M Letcher Emeritus Professor University of KwaZulu-Natal Durban, South Africa Elsevier Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, The Netherlands Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford OX2 8DP, UK First edition 2009 Copyright © 2009 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone (þ44) (0) 1865 843830; fax (þ44) (0) 1865 853333; email: permissions@elsevier.com Alternatively you can submit your request online by visiting the Elsevier web site at http://elsevier.com/locate/permissions, and selecting Obtaining permission to use Elsevier material Notice No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Climate change : observed impacts on planet Earth / edited by Trevor M Letcher 1st ed p cm Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 978 444 53301 Climatic changes Climatic changes Environmental aspects Global environmental change I Letcher, T M (Trevor M.) QC903.C56 2009 551.6 dc22 2009006502 ISBN: 978 444 53301 For information on all Elsevier publications visit our website at elsevierdirect.com Printed and bound in The Netherlands 09 10 11 12 10 Contents Foreword Preface Contributors Introduction xiii xv xix xxiii Part I Possible Causes of Climate Change The Role of Atmospheric Gases in Global Warming R P Tuckett Introduction Origin of the Greenhouse Effect: ‘Primary’ and ‘Secondary’ Effects The Physical Chemistry Properties of Greenhouse Gases The Lifetime of a Greenhouse Gas in the Earth’s Atmosphere General Comments on Long Lived Greenhouse Gases Conclusion References 15 17 18 19 The Role of Widespread Surface Solar Radiation Trends in Climate Change: Dimming and Brightening S Cohen Introduction Solar Radiation and its Measurement Trends in Surface Solar Radiation or Global Dimming and Brightening The Causes of Dimming and Brightening The Influence of Solar Radiation Changes (Dimming and Brightening) on Climate Conclusions References 22 22 26 32 33 38 38 The Role of Space Weather and Cosmic Ray Effects in Climate Change L I Dorman Introduction Solar Activity, Cosmic Rays and Climate Change 44 45 v Contents vi The Influence on the Earth’s Climate of the Solar System Moving Around the Galactic Centre and Crossing Galaxy Arms The Influence of Molecular Dust Galactic Clouds on the Earth’s Climate The Influence of Interplanetary Dust Sources on the Earth’s Climate Space Factors and Global Warming The Influence of Asteroids on the Earth’s Climate The Influence of Nearby Supernova on the Earth’s Climate Discussion and Conclusions References 65 65 67 68 70 70 71 74 The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change G Stenchikov Introduction Aerosol Loading, Spatial Distribution and Radiative Effect Volcanoes and Climate Summary References 77 79 82 98 99 The Role of Variations of the Earth’s Orbital Characteristics in Climate Change L J Lourens and E Tuenter Introduction Astronomical Parameters Orbital Induced Climate Change Conclusion References 103 104 112 120 121 Part II A Geological History of Climate Change A Geological History of Climate Change J Zalasiewicz and M Williams Introduction Climate Models Long Term Climate Trends Early Climate History Phanerozoic Glaciations The Mesozoic Early Cenozoic Greenhouse Development of the Quaternary Icehouse Astronomical Modulation of Climate Milankovitch Cyclicity in Quaternary (Pleistocene) Climate History 127 128 129 131 132 133 134 135 136 Contents 10 11 12 13 vii Quaternary Sub Milankovitch Cyclicity The Holocene Climate of the Anthropocene Conclusions References 137 138 138 139 139 Part III Indicators of Climate and Global Change Changes in the Atmospheric Circulation as Indicator of Climate Change T Reichler Introduction The General Circulation of the Atmosphere The Poleward Expansion of the Tropical Circulation The Decreasing Intensity of the Tropical Circulation Emerging Mechanisms Connection to Extratropical Circulation Change Outstanding Problems and Conclusions References 145 147 149 155 155 159 160 162 Weather Pattern Changes in the Tropics and Mid-Latitudes as an Indicator of Global Changes R M Trigo and L Gimeno Introduction Observed Changes in Extra Tropical Patterns Changes in Tropical Patterns Conclusion References 165 166 170 178 179 Bird Ecology as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change W Fiedler Introduction Indicators of Change Conclusion References 181 182 193 193 10 Mammal Ecology as an Indicator of Climate Change M M Humphries Introduction: A Primer on Mammal Thermoregulation and Climate Impacts 197 Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet Earth Contents viii Demonstrated Impacts of Climate Change on Mammals Linking Time and Space in Mammal Climate Responses References 199 210 211 11 Climate Change and Temporal and Spatial Mismatches in Insect Communities S L Pelini, K M Prior, D J Parker, J D K Dzurisin, R L Lindroth and J J Hellmann Introduction Direct Effects of Climate Change on Insects Host Plant Mediated Effects on Insects Predator Mediated Effects on Insect Populations Climate Change and Insect Pests Conclusion References 215 217 219 222 225 226 227 12 Sea Life (Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems) as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change M Edwards Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems Observed Impacts on Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems Conclusion and Summary of Key Indicators References 233 237 246 248 13 Changes in Coral Reef Ecosystems as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change M J Attrill Introduction Tropical Coral Reef Ecosystems The Associated Fauna of Coral Reefs Conclusion References 253 254 258 260 260 14 Changes in Marine Biodiversity as an Indicator of Climate Change B Worm and H K Lotze Introduction Climate Change and the Oceans Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity Cumulative Impacts and Indirect Effects of Climate Change Biodiversity as Insurance against Climate Change Impacts 263 264 265 272 274 ENSO −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.25 0.25 0.4 0.6 0.8 COLOR PLATE 13 Spatial pattern of El Nin˜o as given by the temporal correlation between the annual (May April) standardised SLP anomalies at each point and the monthly teleconnection pattern time series from 1960 to 2000 Tropical Cyclones, 1945–2006 Saffir-Simpson Hurrican Scale tropical depression tropical storm hurricane category hurricane category hurricane category hurricane category hurricane category COLOR PLATE 14 Tropical Cyclones, 1945 2006 Data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foun dation with no Invariant Sections, no Front Cover Texts and no Back Cover Texts First EOF of annual range 45N 10.3% 30N 0.7 0.4 15N 0.1 −0.1 EQ −0.4 −0.7 15S −1 30S ARI index a b 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 −0.3 −0.6 −0.9 −1.2 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year COLOR PLATE 15 (Reprinted from Fig of Ref [45]) (a) The spatial pattern of the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) mode of the normalised annual range precipitation anoma lies over the global continental monsoon regions The bold contour indicates the boundaries of the monsoon domain; (b) the corresponding principal component or annual range index (ARI) (© Cambridge Press; IPCC report, Chapter and © AGU) COLOR PLATE 16 Changes in the geographical distribution of four different plankton assem blages over a multidecadal period There has been a rapid northerly movement of warm temperate species and a subsequent decline in sub arctic species over 40 years Particularly rapid movement is observed along the European Continental Shelf Data derived from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey Updated from Ref [76] 2000 1995 60 58 58 56 56 54 54 52 52 50 50 1950s 48 1990 −15 62 1985 Years 62 60 1980 1975 −10 −5 60 60 58 58 56 56 54 54 52 52 50 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 10 Month −10 −5 −5 −10 −5 10 60 58 58 56 56 54 54 52 52 50 1980s 48 10 −15 62 60 10 50 48 −15 −10 50 1970s 48 −15 62 1960s 48 10 −15 62 1990s −10 −5 48 10 −15 2000s −10 −5 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 Phytoplankton colour index 2005 62 10 COLOR PLATE 17 Spatial temporal maps of the changes in the abundance of phytoplankton colour (an index of total phytoplankton biomass) for the NE Atlantic averaged per decade from the 1950s to the present The contour plot shows monthly mean values from 1950 to 2005 of phy toplankton colour averaged for the North Sea Large increases in phytoplankton colour are observed towards the end of the 1980s and have continued since The increase in colour has been associated with a regime shift in the North Sea Updated from Ref [47] Fish and mammal richness 25 3.5 20 2.5 15 10 1.5 0.5 0 10 a 15 SST/ЊC 1980 −25% 25 30 +25% +50% +25% +50% c 1980–2050 d 20 1980–2020 b −25% Foraminifera richness 30 4.5 1980–2080 +25% +50% −25% e COLOR PLATE 18 Effects of sea surface temperature (SST) on marine pelagic biodiversity (a) Empirical relationships between SST and the observed species richness of foraminiferan zooplankton (green, data from [62]), tuna and billfish (red, data from [17]) and genus richness of deep water cetaceans (blue, data from [65]) Maps depict projected mean genus richness of deep water cetaceans in (b) 1980, and relative changes in richness projected to occur between (c) 1980 and 2020, (d) 1980 and 2050 and (e) 1980 and 2080 are shown Changes are expressed as percents of the mean (over all ocean areas 36 ‰ Salinity < 34 ‰ L N W R Labrador Sea Nordic Seas Weddell Sea Ross Sea COLOR PLATE 23 Strongly simplified sketch of the global overturning circulation system In the Atlantic, warm and saline waters flow northwards all the way from the Southern Ocean into the Labrador and Nordic Seas By contrast, there is no deep water formation in the North Pacific and its surface waters are fresher Deep waters formed in the Southern Ocean are denser and thus spread in deeper levels than those from the North Atlantic Note the strongly localised deep water formation areas in comparison with the wide spread zones of mixing driven upwelling Wind driven upwelling occurs along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) This figure has been published by Kuhlbrodt et al [17] 90N 45N 45S 90S 180 90W −4 −2 ЊC 90E STD/Sv COLOR PLATE 24 Change in surface air temperature during the years 1920 1930 after the collapse of the AMOC in a water hosing experiment using the HadCM3 climate model Areas where the anomaly is not significant have been masked This figure has been published by Vellinga et al [36] 3 Atlantic MOC/Sv 22 18 14 10 1900 1940 1980 2020 Time 2060 2100 COLOR PLATE 25 Evolution of the AMOC as defined by the maximum overturning at 24 N for the period 1900 2100 in nine different climate models forced with the greenhouse gas emis sion scenario A1B The AMOC evolutions of integrations with a skill score larger than one are shown as solid lines, those from models with a smaller skill score as dashed lines [39] The weighted ensemble mean is shown by the thick black curve together with the weighted standard deviations (thin black lines) This figure was published by Schmittner et al [39] Pre-industrial a Present 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.1 8.2 8.3 b Future 7.7 7.8 7.9 c COLOR PLATE 26 (See legend on next page) Mauna Loa CO2 Record CO2μatm y = 1.74x − 3105.9 pCO2 375 R2 = 0.94, st err = 0.029 pCO2SW y = 1.86x − 3364 350 R2 = 0.3104, st err = 0.223 Ω aragonite 8.33 8.28 8.23 8.18 325 8.13 300 a 8.38 pH 400 pH GEOSECS 8.08 y = −0.0019x + 11.815 R2 = 0.2654, st err = 0.00025 275 5.00 8.03 Aragonite Saturation State 4.50 y = −0.0069x + 17.43 R2 = 0.097, st err = 0.0017 GEOSECS 4.00 3.50 b 3.00 7.00 Calcite Saturation State GEOSECS Ω calcite 6.50 6.00 160ЊW 23ЊN 158ЊW 156ЊW y = −0.011x + 27.7 R2 = 0.127, st err = 0.0024 Station Aloba 22Њ 5.50 21Њ 20Њ Station Mauna Loa 19Њ c 5.00 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 2010 2020 COLOR PLATE 27 (a) The Mauna Loa records of atmospheric CO2 over the last 50 a with the pCO2SW and surface ocean pH recorder during the last two decades from the Hawaii Ocean Time Series (HOTS) and the resultant changes to (b) Agaronite saturation state and (c) calcite sat uration state over the same period From Doney et al [17] COLOR PLATE 26 (a) estimated pre industrial (1700s) sea surface pH and (b) present day (1990s) sea surface pH, both mapped using data from the Global Ocean Data Analysis Project [5] and World Ocean Atlas climatologies; however, in the absence of estimated pre industrial fields of temperature and salinity 1990s fields were used (although these contain a small signal from global warming) Note that GLODAP climatology is missing data in certain oceanic pro vinces (areas left white) including the Arctic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Malay Archipelago (c) Predicted pH across the world’s oceans for yr 2100 using the SOC model, which was part of the OCMIP project [6] and used the IS92a CO2 scenario Note that the pH scale is different in (c) Courtesy of Andrew Yool (National Oceanography Centre, Southampton) 52ЊN 14 50ЊN 80 140 18 48ЊN 100 46ЊN 44ЊN 12 200 Depth (m) 80 60 10 140 18 130ЊW 126ЊW 122ЊW Longitude 118ЊW 60 12 160 12 13 134ЊW 100 11 200 26ЊN 28ЊN 30ЊN 80 160 20 32ЊN 10 34ЊN 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 100 36ЊN 80 14 180 Latitude 40 40ЊN 38ЊN 60 160 42ЊN 80 114ЊW COLOR PLATE 28 Distribution of the depths of the undersaturated water (aragonite saturation < 1.0; pH < 7.75) on the continental shelf of western North America from Queen Charlotte Sound, Canada to San Gregorio Baja California Sur, Mexico On transect line the corrosive water reaches all the way to the surface in the inshore waters near the coast The black dots represent station locations From Feely et al [13] 0.50 0.45 Ocean pH decline 0.40 0.35 0.30 450 550 0.25 650 0.20 750 1000 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 2000 2050 2100 2150 Year 2200 2250 2300 COLOR PLATE 29 Trajectories for surface ocean pH decrease calculated for different atmospheric CO2 concentration profiles leading to stabilisation from 450 to 1000 ppm From Turley [92] COLOR PLATE 30 Maps of the north and south polar regions showing ice sheets and place names used in the text Modified from Ref [19] [...]... emissions and that we also need to start, now, on building our capacity to adapt to climate change impacts It will take both massive mitigation and adaptation to meet the challenge of climate change Martin Parry Visiting Professor, Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London Co-Chair Working Group II Assessment on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. .. correlation between the concentrations of ozone, O3, and the chlorine monoxide radical, ClO, in the stratosphere above the Antarctic during their Spring season of 1987 (With permission from Anderson et al., J Geophys Res D 94 (1989) 11465.) There was not only the general observation that a decrease of O3 concentration correlated with an increase in ClO concentration, but also the resolution was sufficient... Introduction Changes in Phenology Changes in Distribution Community Composition Plant Growth Conclusions References 297 299 300 301 302 303 304 17 The Impact of Climate and Global Change on Crop Production G R Dixon 1 2 3 4 5 6 Introduction Impact on Plant Growth and Reproduction Scale of the Problems Climate Change Models Winners and Losers Adaptation References 307 308 313 314 315 320 322 18 Rising... nitrogen oxides and also particulate matter In this respect, climate change and our future energy are closely intertwined and this book will, I am sure, have a strong influence on deciding our future energy options CLIMATE CHANGE: observed impacts on Planet Earth is written not only for students and researchers and their professors, but for decision makers in government and in industry, journalists and... AMOC? Is the AMOC Changing Already? 7 Conclusion References 349 350 351 353 357 361 362 364 21 Ocean Acidification as an Indicator for Climate Change C Turley and H S Findlay 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Introduction Evidence from Observations Model Predictions of Future Change Impacts Biogeochemical Cycling and Feedback to Climate Adaptation, Recovery and Mitigation Conclusion References 367 370 374 374 381 383 385... variations in the earth s orbit, the role of cosmic radiation and the effect of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, water vapour and man made gases such as freons To put climate change into perspective, there is a chapter on the geological history of the earth s climate There is evidence of slow changes in climate, taking place over millions of years, and also of abrupt reorientations...Contents 6 Conclusions References ix 275 276 15 Intertidal Indicators of Climate and Global Change N Mieszkowska 1 2 3 4 5 Introduction Climate Change and Biogeography Mechanisms Additional Impacts of Global Change Conclusions References 281 283 289 291 292 292 16 Plant Ecology as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change M D Morecroft and S A Keith 1 2 3 4 5 6 Introduction Changes in... anthropogenic greenhouse gases on the climate Although we cannot prove conclusively that there is a cause-and-effect correlation between rising global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, the correlation over the past 100 years is very convincing To put the whole idea of climate change in perspective, there is a chapter on a Geological History of Climate Change In this chapter... of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change drew two substantially new conclusions which have had a marked effect on policymakers The first was that current climate change is ‘unequivocal’ and is due largely to emissions of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity The second was that the effects of this observed global warming can now be detected on every continent in the form of altered... from the truth, in that there has always been a greenhouse effect operative in the earth s atmosphere Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet Earth Copyright © 2009 by Elsevier B.V All rights of reproduction in any form reserved 3 4 PART I Possible Causes of Climate Change Without it we would inhabit a very cold planet, and not exist in the hospitable temperature of 290 300 K The purpose of this