Climate change and security

Climate Change and Security Recent Title in Security and the Environment Arctic Doom, Arctic Boom: The Geopolitics of Climate Change in the Arctic Barry Scott Zellen Climate Change and Security A Gathering Storm of Global Challenges Christian Webersik Security and the Environment P H Liotta, Series Editor Copyright 2010 by Christian Webersik All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, except for the inclusion of brief quotations in a review, without prior permission in writing from the publisher Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Webersik, Christian, 1970Climate change and security : a gathering storm of global challenges / Christian Webersik p cm — (Security and the environment) Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 978-0-313-38006-8 (hard copy : alk paper)—ISBN 978-0-313-38007-5 (ebook) Human beings—Effect of climate on Human security Climatic changes—Social aspects Climatic changes—Political aspects Environmental management I Title GF71.W43 2010 2010000839 304.20 5—dc22 ISBN: 978-0-313-38006-8 EISBN: 978-0-313-38007-5 14 13 12 11 10 This book is also available on the World Wide Web as an eBook Visit www.abc-clio.com for details Praeger An Imprint of ABC-CLIO, LLC ABC-CLIO, LLC 130 Cremona Drive, P.O Box 1911 Santa Barbara, California 93116-1911 This book is printed on acid-free paper Manufactured in the United States of America To my parents, Helga and Heinz Webersik This page intentionally left blank CONTENTS Illustrations ix Series Foreword xi Acknowledgments xv Introduction xvii Abbreviations xxiii Impact of Climate Change on Security Resource Scarcity and Security Implications 21 Natural Disasters and Security Implications 47 Migration as an Outcome 67 Ripple Effects of Climate Change Mitigation 87 The Way Forward: A New Environmental Security Agenda for the Twenty-First Century 111 Notes 135 Bibliography 163 Index 179 This page intentionally left blank ILLUSTRATIONS FIGURES 1.1 Global Annual Mean Temperature and Armed Conflicts, 1946–2007 1.2 Historical and Contemporary Trends in CO2 Concentrations and Temperature 1.3 The Greening of Niger, 1982–1999 12 2.1 Armed Conflict Hotspots and Agricultural Dependency 26 2.2 Social Vulnerability and Food Insecurity—Rainfall and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960–2000 28 2.3 Rainfall Growth and Economic Growth in Sudan, 1981–1998 39 2.4 Rainfall Deviations in Darfur, 2001–2006 41 3.1 Insured and Total Losses in 2006 54 3.2 Japan’s Typhoon-Affected Regions Shift Northward 57 3.3 Street Scene in Port-au-Prince, 2006 60 3.4 Accumulative GDP and Natural Disasters in Haiti, 1945–2005 61 3.5 Projected Agriculture due to Climate Change in 2080 63 4.1 Area, Population, and Economy Affected by One-Meter Sea-Level Rise 74 4.2 Urban Population Passing Rural Population in Less Developed Regions (in Billions) 77 5.1 World Biofuels Annual Production, 1975–2005 90 5.2 Food and Agricultural Organization Food Price Index, 1900–2008 91 6.1 Economic Loss Risk in Africa 114 6.2 Human Security Flow Diagram 128 TABLES 2.1 Rainfall and Economic Growth (First-Stage Regression) 2.2 Rainfall and Civil Conflict (! 25 Deaths) 30 31 Bibliography 173 Moore, Patrick “Going Nuclear: A Green Makes the Case.” The Washington Post, April 16, 2006 Morgan, James “Ocean Climate Fix Remains Afloat.” BBC News, January 29, 2009 Morris, Saul S., Oscar Neidecker-Gonzales, Calogero Carletto, Marcial Munguia, Juan Manuel Medina, and Quentin Wodon “Hurricane Mitch and the Livelihoods of the Rural Poor in Honduras.” World Development 30, no (2002) Mountain Forum “Natural Resources: Women, Conflicts and Management.” Mountain Forum Bulletin 8, no (2008) Mukhtar, Mohamed Haji “The Plight of the Agro-Pastoral Society of Somalia.” Review of African Political Economy 23, no 70 (1996) Munich Re Group Katrina and Rita: Munich Re Estimates Total Insured Market Losses at Up to US$ 40bn Munich: Munich Re Group, 2005 ——— Topics Geo: Natural Catastrophes 2006 Munich: Munich Re Group, 2007 Murshed, S Mansoob, and Scott Gates “Spatial-Horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal.” Review of Development Economics 9, no (2005) Mutz, Reinhard, and Bruno Schoch Friedensgutachten M€ unster: LIT Verlag, 1995 Myers, Norman “Environmental Refugees.” Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 19 (1997) ——— Environmental Exodus: An Emergent Crisis in the Global Arena Washington, DC: Climate Institute, 1995 National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World; 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climate change, 58, 112, 115–16, 118–19, 123, 127; costs, 118–119, 126; defined, 116, limits to, 118–123 adaptive capacity, 8, 22, 67, 71, 75–77, 84–85, 112, 116, 118, 122–23 Adger, W Neil, 50, 112 aerosols, 3, 99–101, 105, 108 Afghanistan, 82 Africa; 5, 8–9, 13, 18, 22–25, 27–28, 36–46, 48–49, 51, 53, 62, 66, 73, 76–78, 80–82, 85, 89–92, 112–17, 120, 131; West, 9, 113; East, 36, 73, 82; See also under names of specific countries air travel, levy on, 126 albedo, 99–100, 107 Algeria, 98 Amazon rainforest, dieback of, 129 Annan, Kofi, 15 anthropogenic See manmade AR4 See Fourth Assessment Report Arctic, loss of summer sea ice in, 1, 67, 129 Argentina, 90 Asia, 5, 8, 18, 23, 46, 48–49, 53, 65–66, 68, 72–77, 84–85, 89–90, 92, 116, 131; mega-deltas of, 72, 74–75, 84; Southeast, 5, 68, 73, 84–85, 92, 116, 131; See also under names of specific countries Australia, 5, 66, 84, 91, 98, 116, 132 Bahamas, 76 Ban Ki-moon, 124 Bangladesh, 53, 62, 75–78, 81–82, 101, 104, 116, 122–23, 125 Barre, Siyad, 83 Belarus, 104 Biermann, Frank, 126 biodiesel, 89–90, 106; See also biofuels biodiversity loss, 1, 6, 16, 68, 129, 132 bioengineering, 93, 99 biofuels, 18, 24, 87–93, 98, 106, 109, 128, 130–32; first-generation, 88, 105–6, 128, 130, 132; secondgeneration, 92–93, 106, 109, 131 biosafety, 93 Blix, Hans, 102 Borneo, 123, 131 Botswana, 10 Brazil, 4–5, 92, 113 Cambodia, 85, 89 Cameroon, 97 Canada, 1, 18, 117 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), 97–98 carbon cycle, 95–96 180 carbon dioxide (CO2), 87, 94, 97; emissions, 1, 19, 77, 106; concentrations, 62 carbon fertilization, 62–63 carbon footprint, 77, 109, 115, 125 carbon sequestration, 44, 93, 97–98, 105, 109 Caribbean, 49, 65–66, 73 CCS See Carbon Capture and Storage Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), 26, 113–15 Central America, 73 Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), 47 Chad, Chernobyl, 18, 102–103 Chile, 96 China, 4, 5, 11, 26, 53–56, 58, 73, 76, 81, 90, 92, 99, 101, 104, 109, 112, 123, 125–26, 129–30, 133 CIA See U S Central Intelligence Agency CIESIN See Center for International Earth Science Information Network climate change adaptation See adaptation, climate change climate change, defined, climate change, “dangerous” anthropogenic, 102, 112, 128, 130–31 climate change feedbacks, 4, 15–19, 68, 80, 129, 131; positive, 4, 16, 18–19, 131; negative (adverse), 16–18, 129 climate change mitigation See mitigation, climate change climate-sensitive economies, 17, 22, 66, 75, 101, 113, 115, 116 climate victims, 75, 79, 134 See also refugees, climate; refugees, environmental Cold War, 8–9, 11, 13, 16, 101, 130 Columbia University, 26, 46, 62, 87, 90, 113–114 conflict, environmental, 15, 19 Index coping strategy, 37, 69; See also adaptation coral reefs, damage to, 73, 84, 129 CRED See Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters Crutzen, Paul, 99 cyclones, 6, 16–17, 47–49, 52–56, 58–59, 61, 65, 67–70, 72, 75–76, 78, 80, 83–86, 113, 116; defined, 69; increase in tropical, 47, 58–59, 65–66, 69, 75–76 Darfur, 19, 25–26, 39–41 Darfur conflict See Darfur de Boer, Yvo, 15 deforestation, 3, 10, 12–13, 36, 59–60, 66, 69, 91–92, 106, 122, 129, 131–32 Democratic Republic of the Congo, 25, 82, de Soysa, Indra, 11 de Waal, Alexander, 38 Diamond, Jared, 35, 60 disaster, manmade, 51, 69; See also earthquake, human-triggered disease, 9, 16, 26, 42, 53, 120, 122, 124–25, 130; malaria, 53, 119–20 Dominican Republic, 49, 59–62, 65–66 drought, 1, 4, 6, 12, 16–17, 22–25, 35–38, 40, 42, 44, 46–52, 62, 64–69, 71–75, 80–85, 89, 91, 100–101, 113–17, 120, 122, 124; defined, 69; nineteenth-century, drylands, 66 early-warning, 54, 111, 113, 115, 117, 123–24 Earth Institute, 87, 90, 113 earthquakes, 54, 62, 66, 72, 98, 103–4, 113–14, 130; human-triggered, 98 Easter Island, 5, 128 Egypt, 24, 64–65, 89, 104 El Ni~ no, 117, 129 EM-DAT See Emergency Events Database 181 Index Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), 69, 73–74 entitlement approach, 4, 21, 51, 63–64 environmental conflict See conflict, environmental environmental justice, 79, 121, 133 environmental migrant See migrants, environmental environmental security See security, environmental erosion, 6, 40, 70, 78, 116, 123 Estonia, 101 Ethiopia, 25, 36, 82–83, 114 eutrophication, 95, 107 Europe, 1, 5–6, 22, 53, 59, 74, 79, 83, 89, 93, 104, 117, 129 See also under names of specific countries famine, 5, 16, 36, 38, 63–64, 69, 81, 83, 100, 124 FAO See Food and Agricultural Organisation feedbacks, climate change, See climate change feedbacks Fiji, 123 flash floods, 43–44, 117, 123 flood, 1, 6, 17, 22, 24, 36–38, 42–44, 47–48, 50, 52–55, 59, 67–73, 75, 77–78, 80–81, 83–86, 89, 103, 113–17, 121–24; See also flash floods Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), 115 food security, 17–18, 23, 62, 66, 82, 88–89, 93, 95–96, 100, 125, 127, 130, 133 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 16, 22–23, 46, 56, 69, 72, 120 France, 17, 22–23, 73, 83, 125, 133 G8 summit, 124 G-20 (Group of Twenty), 113 Galtung, Johan, 14 genetically modified crops, 93 genetically modified organism See genetically modified crops geoengineering, 18, 88, 93, 96, 98–101, 105, 107, 128, 132 Geographic Information Systems (GIS), 14 Germany, 18, 73, 83, 92, 96, 103, 113, 117, 121, 125, 126 GIS See Geographic Information Systems glacier, 3–4, 6, 21, 43–44, 115, 117, 123, 129; retreat, 43, 45, 115 glacier lake outbursts, 43–44, 116–17 Gleditsch, Nils Petter, 83 Gore, Al (former U S vice president), greenhouse gas concentrations See greenhouse gases greenhouse gas emissions See greenhouse gases greenhouse gases, 1, 3–4, 43, 56, 68, 71, 88–89, 92, 95, 99, 106–107, 109, 111, 115–16, 125, 128–32 Greenland ice sheet, melting of, 1, 67, 80, 129 Haiti, 9, 49, 53, 59–62, 65–66, 72, 122 Hansen, James, 67, 87 heat wave, 1, 3, 6, 16–17, 22, 115, 117, 119 Himalaya, 23–24, 43–45, 70 Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 9, 16 Honduras, 53, 80 Hurricane Katrina, 17, 48, 53, 78, 80–81, 83 Hurricane Mitch, 53, 80–81 hydrological cycle, 100, 105, 129 IAEA See International Atomic Energy Agency ice age, 7, 67, 94, 115 India, 4–5, 11, 23, 65, 73, 76, 78, 82, 84, 89, 92, 96, 101, 104–5, 112, 126, 130, 133 Indonesia, 18, 53, 56, 85, 89, 91–92, 99, 101, 104, 122, 131–32 insurance, drought, 46, 66 intelligence, 104 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1, 3, 15–16, 22–23, 182 46, 56, 69, 71–72, 84, 92, 98, 115–16, 120–21 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), 17, 38, 41, 63, 71 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 104 International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), 43–44 International Organization for Migration, 126 International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), 8, 27 International Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 83 international security See security, international IPCC See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Iran, 88, 104–5, 107 Iraq, 82, 102, 104 irrigation, 17, 23, 37–38, 85, 115, 120, 122 island states, 8, 16, 70, 112, 121, 125–26, 130 Israel, 10, 64, 82, 104 Japan, 1, 5, 11, 17, 48–49, 53–59, 65, 67, 89, 103–4, 113 Kaplan, Robert, 9, 13 Kenya, 11 Kiribati, 70 knock-on effects See ripple effects Kyoto Protocol, 124, 126–27, 129–30 landslides, 6, 59, 67–70, 72, 75, 78, 84–86, 117 La Ni~ na, 117 Lao People’s Democratic Republic, 85 LDCs See Least-Developed Countries Least-Developed Countries (LDCs), 119; See also low-income countries Liberia, 35 Lohafex, 96–97, 109 Lovelock, James, 102 Index low-carbon society, 44, 103 See also zero-carbon society low elevation coastal zone, 76–77, 87 low-income countries, 53, 59, 62, 75, 120; See also Least-Developed Countries MacCracken, Michael, 99–100 Malawi, 46, 91, 117 Malaysia, 81, 85, 131 Maldives, 16, 70, 84, 118 Malthus, T Robert, 8; See also neo-Malthusian mangrove forests, 73, 78, 84, 123 manmade disaster See disaster, manmade; See also earthquake, human-triggered Maoist movement, 42 Marshall Islands, 70, 116 Martin, John, 94 mesosphere, 99, 108 methane, 3, 95, 107, 131 Middle East, 109 migrants, environmental, 70, 79, 83; See also migration, climate-induced migration, human 6, 16–17, 67–68, 115; climate-induced, 6, 17, 68–69, 71, 79, 80–82, 84–85, 116; environmentally induced, forced, 10–11, 13, 16, 70–71, 73, 80, 82, 85, 111, 124; voluntary, 71 Miguel, Edward, 27, 29–34 military, 19, 38, 82, 105, 107, 122, 133 mitigation, 18, 48, 65, 81, 87–88, 96–99, 105–9, 111, 113, 115–16, 124, 128, 130, 132–33; climate change, 18, 48, 65, 81, 87–88, 96–98, 105–9, 116, 124, 130, 133; defined, 115 monsoon, 43, 78, 101, 105, 130; Indian, 105, 130 Moore, Patrick, 102 moral economy, 51 Mozambique, 82 Munch, Edvard, 101 Myanmar, 62 Myers, Norman, 70 Index N2O See Nitrous oxide neo-Malthusian, 8, 10, 12, 63–64; critique of, 10 Nepal, 22, 24, 35, 42–44, 72, 116, 123 Netherlands, 76, 118 New Orleans, 78, 119; See also Hurricane Katrina Nicaragua, 80 Niger, 11–12, 73, 92, 114 Nigeria, 73, 92, 114 1951 Geneva Convention, 126 Nitrous oxide (N2O), 3, 89, 95, 106–7 Nordhaus, William, 54 North Korea, 18, 104–5 Northwest Passage, 129 Norway, 109, 118 nuclear, 16, 18, 88, 101–5, 107, 121, 124, 128, 131; accident, 102–3, 105, 131; energy, 18, 88, 101–5, 107, 128, 131; power plant, 18, 103; proliferation, 88, 101, 124, 131; reactor, 103, 107; weapon, 16, 88, 102, 104, 107 Obama, Barack (U S President), 111 ocean fertilization, 94–96, 105, 107, 109 ODA See Overseas Development Assistance O’Riordan, Timothy, 50 Overseas Development Assistance (ODA), 79, 120 Pacific, 11, 52–54, 65, 94, 104 Pakistan, 53, 65, 82, 104–5 Palestine, 10, 82 Papua New Guinea, 124–25 parts per Million (ppm), pastoralists, 36, 38, 64, 122 peacebuilding, 8, 21 peacekeeping, 8, 21 Philippines, 48, 53, 62, 66, 85, 99, 100, 109, 122 phytoplankton, 93–95, 97, 107 PIK See Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Polynesia, 73 183 population density, 11–12, 44–46, 66–67, 74–76, 78, 84–85; See also population growth population growth, 8, 10–11, 24, 37, 44, 55–56, 75, 77, 84, 86, 89, 132 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 126, 129 poverty, 9–10, 15, 17, 22, 24–26, 29, 44, 51, 62, 81, 85, 91, 111, 120, 122, 125, 132 preindustrial, 4–6, 70 realism, 47 REDD See Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD), 131–32 refugees, 17, 47, 67, 70–71, 82–83, 126–27; climate, 71, 126–27; environmental, 47, 67, 70–71 reinsurance companies, 54 Richards, Paul, 11, 13 ripple (knock-on) effects, 18, 87, 95, 99–100, 105–8, 124, 128, 130, 133 Robock, Alan, 100–1 Russia, 18, 23, 99, 104, 125 Russian Federation See Russia Rwanda, 13–14, 82 Sachs, Jeffrey, 24 Sahel, 12, 23, 36, 46, 49, 81–82 Scandinavia, 18, 101 scarcity, 6, 8–14, 16–19, 21–22, 24–26, 37, 41, 43–44, 49–50, 63–64, 124, 127, 133; defined, 9, 21; environmental, 9–14, 50; resource, 6, 11, 13–14, 17, 19, 21–22, 24–25, 37, 41, 43, 49, 124, 127, 133; water, 16, 18, 25–26, 44, 64, 127 Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, 126, 129 sea-level rise, 1–2, 8, 17, 53, 67–76, 78, 80, 84–86, 112, 116–119, 121, 126, 129, 133; one-meter, 73–74, 116 sea surface temperature, 48, 52, 58, 84 184 security, energy, 48, 90, 109, 124, 126 security, environmental, 4, 8, 12–13, 15, 19, 111, 130 security, international, 4, 9, 13, 15–16, 18, 24, 64, 88, 105, 109, 124, 127, 131 Sen, Amartya, 5, 63–64 Seychelles, 118 Sierra Leone, 8, 11, 13–14, 35 small island states See island states social capital, 51–52 social resilience, 37, 49–50, 64 social vulnerability, 17, 28, 37, 50–51, 123 solar radiation management, 99, 105, 107, 109, 130 Somalia, 8, 10, 14, 22, 35–38, 44, 49, 51, 63–64, 79, 82–83, 89, 122 South Africa, 13, 73 Southeast Asia, 5, 68, 73, 84–85, 92, 116, 131 South Korea, 66 Soviet Union, 16, 18, 23, 102, 105; See also Russia Sri Lanka, Stern report, 15–16, 22, 58, 119, 123 stratosphere, 99, 101, 108 Sudan, 22, 35, 39–42, 44 Suriname, 76 Taiwan, 54, 66 TAR See Third Assessment Report terrorism, 102, 104–5, 107 Thailand, 85, 104 Third Assessment Report (TAR), threat multiplier, 15–16, 22, 48, 62, 64, 133 Three Mile Island nuclear accident, 101–2 tipping points, 1, 67–68, 80, 129 Tokelau, 70 tourism, 43, 84; eco-, 132; ski, 117–19 troposphere, 99, 108 Turkey, 104 Tuvalu, 70, 121 Index UN Environment Programme / GRID, 113 UNEP See United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC See United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNHCR See United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees United Kingdom, 102–3, 112, 124–25 United Nations Charter, 124 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 21, 26, 39, 73, 113, 126 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 15, 112, 119–20, 126–27, 129–31 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 17, 83, 126 United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), 115 United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), 115 United States, 1, 5, 9, 13, 16, 18, 48, 53, 72–73, 80, 89, 92, 99, 104, 121, 125–26, 133 United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 113 United States Army Corps of Engineers, 119 UNOCHA See UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UN Security Council, 16, 112–13, 124–27, 133–34 UNU-EHS See United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security urbanization, 68–69, 75–78, 84 Urdal, Henrik, 11 Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), 185 Index USAID See United States Agency for International Development U S Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 104 variability, 2, 21–22, 24, 27, 37, 40, 46, 48, 50, 66, 84, 117, 120; climate, 21–22, 24, 84, 117, 120; resource, 21 Venezuela, 78 Vietnam, 48, 53, 76, 85, 89, 104, 122 volcano, 72, 99, 101 vulnerability, 10, 17, 22, 24–25, 28, 37–38, 40, 49–53, 55, 59, 64, 69, 71–72, 75, 80, 84–86, 107, 116–17, 121–23; defined, 51, 84; social See social vulnerability water war, 64–66 World Bank, 62, 72, 85, 113, 119, 126 zero-carbon society, 131 See also low-carbon society This page intentionally left blank About the Author CHRISTIAN WEBERSIK is currently working as Associate Professor at the Centre for Development Studies at the University of Agder (UiA) in Norway His general research interests are climate change and security, natural hazards and development, and post-conflict economic recovery Before joining UiA, he was a Japan Society for the Promotion of Science—United Nations University (JSPS-UNU) Postdoctoral Fellow at United Nations University’s Institute of Advanced Studies (UNU-IAS) Webersik briefly worked as report writer for United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery Before that, he was a fellow at Columbia University’s Earth Institute where he was hosted by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Following his doctorate, he was Assistant Professor of political science at Asmara University, Eritrea He holds a D.Phil in Politics and International Relations from Oxford University, where he studied the political economy of war and the role of natural resources in conflict in Somalia In the past, Webersik worked in a number of conflict situations with UNDP and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs He also worked for the UN Climate Change Secretariat (UNFCCC) in Bonn, Germany He continues to be interested in understanding in how humans interact with their environment, to what extent environmental factors play a role in armed conflict, and the impact of natural hazards on people’s well-being and livelihoods [...]... Climate Change (IPCC) offers the following fairly conservative definition of climate change: 2 Climate Change and Security Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/ or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer It refers to any change in climate. .. basic science of climate change as pertinent to the security topics treated in this work It describes the historical and contemporary socioeconomic impacts induced by climate change, and the literature on environmental security The second part of Chapter 1 examines adverse and positive feedbacks on human and international security Adverse security consequences of contemporary climate change include biodiversity... rise and reach double preindustrial levels (around 1,750) by 2050, making climate change inevitable.14 The remainder of this chapter first examines the socioeconomic historical and contemporary impacts of climate change It then turns to the literature on environmental security and its critics, and concludes with both adverse and positive feedbacks of climate change pertinent to human and international security. .. scholars and policy makers alike have broadened the conventional definition of security to include the growing impacts of environmental stresses on human security and international security, and more recently those associated with climate change As early as 1995, Levy associated security with climate change impacts.1 He argued that human health is the only hazard that by itself can pose a security risk,... beginning to see Climate Change and Security is an important and necessary contribution Three decades ago, the environmentalist Norman Myers wrote that national security is about far more than fighting forces and weaponry National security must also include issues of environment and environmental impact—from watersheds to climate impact and these factors must figure in the minds of military experts and political... Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, scientists, the public, and the media acknowledged the connection between climate change and security Since then, a number of policy reports, academic articles, and books emerged—some fairly dramatic, others more reasoned—drawing international attention to climate change impacts on humans and our environment,... indicative of climate change If unchecked, climate change is very likely to have catastrophic consequences for ecosystems and humans, the rich and the poor, the young and the elderly, in all parts of the world But what does the term security mean in the context of climate change? Traditionally, security referred to a political or military threat to national sovereignty Since the end of the Cold War and even... waves and stronger storms, and a changing hydrologic cycle with more floods, intense rains, droughts, and forest fires.2 The Earth’s climate has been changing for millions of years; what is new is the human change shaping climate change The remainder of this chapter presents the basic science of global climate change as relevant to the security issues examined in this book The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. .. burden, and the loss of life In contrast to a climate conflict” approach considering intentional conflict as an outcome of climate change impacts, I treat climate- related impacts, such as human migration and displacement caused by natural hazards, resource scarcity affecting food security, or sea-level rise as a human security issue I deliberately avoid an alarmist and sensationalist approach to climate change. .. for fossil fuels, international insecurity is likely to increase Chapter 6 sets out to define a new environmental security agenda for the twenty-first century, surveying ways of climate change adaptation and early-warning systems, and concluding with an outlook on the legal and institutional mechanisms to deal with climate change in the future The slow pace of climate change impacts will require an intergenerational