Future global and regional climate change

Future Global and Regional Climate Change E Future global and regional climate change Atmosphere: Temperature Atmosphere: Water Cycle Air quality Ocean Cryosphere Sea level Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles Climate stabilization, Climate change commitment and Irreversibility RCP: Representative Concentration Pathways • Models used to predict what will happen in the future • using RCP’s (Representative Concentration Pathways) to show alternative future scenarios • different RCP’s (scenarios) E1: Temperature • Increased temperatures • Mean increase between 0.3 - 0.7 ºC • Heat waves • More frequent • Longer duration • Regionalized • Temperature change will influence the tropical and sub tropical regions more than midlatitude locations • Temperature rises will be more dramatic over land mass than the sea - Negative effect on the Artic E2: Water cycle • Cycles • Changes in the global water cycles, caused by global warming, will not be uniform • Precipitation (rainfall or snowfall) levels • Some regions will experience a decrease in precipitation • The annual precipitation in Pacific Ocean will increase • Precipitation events • Monsoon strengths will intensify due to the increase in atmospheric moisture • Extreme precipitation events will be more intense and more frequent • There will be more of a contrast in seasons causing extreme floods and droughts E3: Air quality • Conclusions drawn predict that air quality will be determined more so by the level of pollutants and emissions rather than by physical climate change • Globally • The physical affect that physical climate change does have on air quality is concerned with the ozone layer • The global temperature alters the background surface of the ozone layer, and weakens it • Regionally • Poor air quality will be much more of a localised phenomenom • Locally higher surface temperatures in polluted regions will trigger regional feedbacks in chemistry and local emissions which will increase peak levels of zone an PM 2.5 Hanoi vs Wellington (nz) E4: Ocean • Temperature • Predictions indicate that the global sea temperature will continue to warm • • Where? • The ocean can warm at different depths, in different regions creating different outcomes • Surface heating will be concentrated in the tropical and NORTHERN HEMISPHERE sub-tropical regions • Deep ocean heating will occur more intensely in the Southern Hemisphere Effects • When the ocean temperature changes it also changes the strengths of the ocean currents • The currents in the Atlantic ocean are predicted to weaken the most E5: Cryosphere • Cryosphere - snow, ice sheets, glaciers • The ArCtic sea ice COVER will decrease • The North Hemisphere spring snow COVER will DEcreasE • The global glacier VOLUME will FURTHER DECREASE • By the end of the 21st century glacier levels have been predicted to decrease by 15% - 85% E6: Sea Levels • Trend: • Sea levels WILL rise • Why: • Ice sheet melt AND OCEAN WARMING • Increased and changing precipitation levels • Prediction • Sea level rises between 26cm – 82cm • Sea levels will rise in 95% of the OCEAN AREA • sea level RISE will not be uniform • E.g 70% of the world are projected to experience change within 20% of the global average E7: Carbon and Biogeochemical cycles - Climate change will effect the way that the carbon cycle processes work - This will result in an increase of Co2 in the atmosphere - The increase in Carbon into the atmosphere will in turn increase acidification levels in the ocean E8: Climate stabilization, Climate change commitment and Irreversibility • Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries, even if the Co2 emissions are stopped • These affects are irreversible exCePt in the case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period • What the future has to contend with: • About 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years • Over a millennium or more, sustained warming would lead to the near-complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet causing a global mean sea level rise of up to m [...]...E7: Carbon and Biogeochemical cycles - Climate change will effect the way that the carbon cycle processes work - This will result in an increase of Co2 in the atmosphere - The increase in Carbon into the atmosphere will in turn increase acidification levels in the ocean E8: Climate stabilization, Climate change commitment and Irreversibility • Most aspects of climate change will persist for... a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period • What the future has to contend with: • About 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years • Over a millennium or more, sustained warming would lead to the near-complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet causing a global mean sea level rise of up to 7 m