CLIMATE CHANGE – REALITIES, IMPACTS OVER ICE CAP, SEA LEVEL AND RISKS Edited by Bharat Raj Singh Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/3459 Edited by Bharat Raj Singh Contributors Juddy N. Okpara, Aondover A.Tarhule, Muthiah Perumal, Bharat Raj Singh, Onkar Singh, Xinhua Liu, Michel Vennetier, François Girard, Olivier Taugourdeau, Maxime Cailleret, Yves Caraglio, Sylvie-Annabel Sabatier, Samira Ouarmim, Cody Didier, Ali Thabeet, Jesús Efren Ospina-Noreña, Carlos Gay García, Ana Elisa Peña del Valle, Matt Hare, Béla Nováky, Gábor Bálint, Anthony A. Duah, Yongxin Xu, E. González-Sosa, N.M. Ramos-Salinas, C.A. Mastachi-Loza, R. Becerril-Piña, Renhe Zhang, Bingyi Wu, Jinping Han, Zhiyan Zuo, F. Iyalomhe, J. Rizzi, S. Torresan, V. Gallina, A. Critto, A. Marcomini, Mohammad Elnesr, Abdurrahman Alazba, Nataliya Moskalenko, P. J. M. Cooper, R. D. Stern, M. Noguer, J. M. Gathenya, Hui Lu, Toshio Koike, Tetsu Ohta, Katsunori Tamagawa, Hideyuki Fujii, David Kuria, Tony Prato, Zeyuan Qiu, Youmin Tang, Dake Chen, Dejian Yang, Tao Lian, S.C. Nwanya, Jaroslav Solár, Martin Lindkvist, Ing-Marie Gren, Katarina Elofsson, Erik Vanem, Bent Natvig, Arne Bang Huseby, Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen Published by InTech Janeza Trdine 9, 51000 Rijeka, Croatia Copyright © 2013 InTech All chapters are Open Access distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license, which allows users to download, copy and build upon published articles even for commercial purposes, as long as the author and publisher are properly credited, which ensures maximum dissemination and a wider impact of our publications. After this work has been published by InTech, authors have the right to republish it, in whole or part, in any publication of which they are the author, and to make other personal use of the work. Any republication, referencing or personal use of the work must explicitly identify the original source. Notice Statements and opinions expressed in the chapters are these of the individual contributors and not necessarily those of the editors or publisher. No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy of information contained in the published chapters. The publisher assumes no responsibility for any damage or injury to persons or property arising out of the use of any materials, instructions, methods or ideas contained in the book. Publishing Process Manager Iva Lipovic Typesetting InTech Prepress, Novi Sad Cover InTech Design Team First published January, 2013 Printed in Croatia A free online edition of this book is available at www.intechopen.com Additional hard copies can be obtained from orders@intechopen.com Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Edited by Bharat Raj Singh p. cm. ISBN 978-953-51-0934-1 Contents Preface IX Section 1 Climate Change Realities and Its Evidences 1 Chapter 1 Study of Climate Change in Niger River Basin, West Africa: Reality Not a Myth 3 Juddy N. Okpara, Aondover A.Tarhule and Muthiah Perumal Chapter 2 A Study About Realities of Climate Change: Glacier Melting and Growing Crises 39 Bharat Raj Singh and Onkar Singh Chapter 3 A Methodology to Interpret Climate Change Due to Influences of the Orbital Parameter on Changes of Earth’s Rotation Rate and Obliquity 67 Xinhua Liu Chapter 4 Climate Change Impact on Tree Architectural Development and Leaf Area 103 Michel Vennetier, François Girard, Olivier Taugourdeau, Maxime Cailleret, Yves Caraglio, Sylvie-Annabel Sabatier, Samira Ouarmim, Cody Didier and Ali Thabeet Section 2 Climate Change and Its Hydrological Effects 127 Chapter 5 Effects of Climate Change on Hydric Resources: Some Implications and Solutions 129 Jesús Efren Ospina-Noreña, Carlos Gay García, Ana Elisa Peña del Valle and Matt Hare Chapter 6 Shifts and Modification of the Hydrological Regime Under Climate Change in Hungary 163 Béla Nováky and Gábor Bálint VI Contents Chapter 7 Sustainable Utilisation of Groundwater Resources Under Climate Change: A Case Study of the Table Mountain Group Aquifer of South Africa 191 Anthony A. Duah and Yongxin Xu Chapter 8 Effect of Water Resources in the Queretaro River: Climate Analysis and Other Changes 209 E. González-Sosa, N.M. Ramos-Salinas, C.A. Mastachi-Loza and R. Becerril-Piña Chapter 9 Effects on Summer Monsoon and Rainfall Change Over China Duo to Eurasian Snow Cover and Ocean Thermal Conditions 227 Renhe Zhang, Bingyi Wu, Jinping Han and Zhiyan Zuo Chapter 10 Inventory of GIS-Based Decision Support Systems Addressing Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Waters and Related Inland Watersheds 251 F. Iyalomhe, J. Rizzi, S. Torresan, V. Gallina, A. Critto and A. Marcomini Chapter 11 Effect of Climate Change on Spatio-Temporal Variability and Trends of Evapotranspiration, and Its Impact on Water Resources Management in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 273 Mohammad Elnesr and Abdurrahman Alazba Section 3 Climate Change and Its Effects on Soil and Agriculture 297 Chapter 12 Impact of Climate Change on Vegetation and Permafrost in West Siberia Subarctic 299 Nataliya Moskalenko Chapter 13 Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: Foundations for the Future 327 P. J. M. Cooper, R. D. Stern, M. Noguer and J. M. Gathenya Chapter 14 Climate Change Assessment Due to Long Term Soil Moisture Change and Its Applicability Using Satellite Observations 357 Hui Lu, Toshio Koike, Tetsu Ohta, Katsunori Tamagawa, Hideyuki Fujii and David Kuria Chapter 15 Potential Impacts of and Adaptation to Future Climate Change for Crop Farms: A Case Study of Flathead Valley, Montana 379 Tony Prato and Zeyuan Qiu Contents VII Section 4 Climate Change and Its Impacts on Uncertainties/Risks 395 Chapter 16 Methods of Estimating Uncertainty of Climate Prediction and Climate Change Projection 397 Youmin Tang, Dake Chen, Dejian Yang and Tao Lian Chapter 17 Study on Perspectives of Energy Production Systems and Climate Change Risks in Nigeria 421 S.C. Nwanya Chapter 18 Effect of Climate Change on Mountain Pine Distribution in Western Tatra Mountains 437 Jaroslav Solár Chapter 19 A Study of Climate Change and Cost Effective Mitigation of the Baltic Sea Eutrophication 459 Martin Lindkvist, Ing-Marie Gren and Katarina Elofsson Chapter 20 An Illustration of the Effect of Climate Change on the Ocean Wave Climate - A Stochastic Model 481 Erik Vanem, Bent Natvig, Arne Bang Huseby and Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen Preface Climate change is a long-term shift in the statistics of the weather (including its averages). For example, it could show up as a change in climate normalcy (expected average values for temperature and precipitation) for a given place and time of year, from one decade to the next. We know that the global climate is currently changing. The last decade of the 20 th Century and the beginning of the 21 st have been the warmest periods in the entire global instrumental temperature record, starting in the mid-19 th century. Thus, it becomes point of attention to everyone on the following points: i. Why is the climate changing? ii. What is natural variability? iii. How much is the human induced change? iv. What are the effects of green house gases? v. How much have we increased the atmosphere's CO2 concentration? vi. Is the temperature really changing? vii. Is there a connection between the recent drought and climate change? viii. Is glacier and Arctic Sea ice melting fast and level of sea rising? ix. Possible problems on account of hurricane, tsunamis and other climates" Climate change is a normal part of the Earth's natural variability, which is related to interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, and land, as well as changes in the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth. The geologic record includes significant evidence for large-scale climate changes in Earth’s past. We also know that certain natural occurring gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO 2) and water vapour (H2O), trap heat in the atmosphere, causing a greenhouse effect. Burning of fossil fuels, like oil, coal, and natural gas is adding CO2 to the atmosphere. The current level is the highest in the past 650,000 years. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded“that most of the observed increase in the globally averaged temperature since the mid-20 th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” Numerous studies are being carried out by the scientists, geologists and researchers globally to know the potential effects of climate change. Extensive research is also being done around the world – a good deal within NOAA – to determine the extent to X Preface which climate change is occurring, how much of it is being caused by anthropogenic (man-made) forces, and its potential impacts. In some of these areas, there is not a consensus among scientists and in fact, there are often conflicting points of view and studies. However, with further research, no doubt many questions regarding impacts will be resolved in the future. Most studied by researchers include the potential impacts such as the effects on sea level, drought, local weather, and hurricanes. Most of our current knowledge of global change comes from General Circulation Models (GCMs). At present, GCMs have the ability to provide us with a mean annual temperature for the planet that is reliable. Regional and local temperature and precipitation information from GCMs is, at present, unreliable. Much of the global change research effort is focused on improving these models. This book is written to create awareness to the energy engineers, academicians, researchers, industrials and society as a whole. It lays emphasis on the current status of climate changes and future effects on melting of glacier sea ice, rise in sea level, and effect of disaster such as hurricanes and tsunamis, effects on hydrology and agriculture. We all know that due to all these changes humanities are at risk. Our beautiful Earth planet is largely destroyed, due to excessive exploration of earth’s reservoirs and other serious manmade problems. The main objective of this book is to produce a good document from the point of view of knowledge seeker or public readers at large end for those who are eager to know much about global warming and its impact on the climate changes, besides those who have risen their voice for its remedial measures. The ultimate effects which we are likely to face as 21 st Century challenges are: 1. Rising seas inundation of fresh water marshlands (the everglades), low-lying cities, and islands with seawater. 2. Changes in rainfall patterns droughts and fire in some areas, flood in other. 3. Increased likelihood of extreme events such as floods, hurricanes, etc. 4. Melting of the ice caps loss of habitat near the poles. Polar bears are now thought to be greatly endangered by the shortening of their feeding season due to dwindling ice packs. 5. Melting glaciers significant melting of old glaciers is already observed. 6. Widespread vanishing of animal populations following widespread habitat loss. 7. Spread of disease migration of diseases such as malaria to new, now warmer, regions. 8. Bleaching of coral reefs due to warming seas and acidification due to carbonic acid formation One third of coral reefs now appear to have been severely damaged by warming seas. [...]... level of vulnerability of Niger River basin and its inhabitants to the impacts of climate change including climatic variability and extremes; as well as provide scientific evidence to substantiate the characterization of the current climatic variability and the future impacts of climate change on the region So the paper will try to 6 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks. .. of the projected climate change on water resources, socio-economic activities and hydrological extremes in the region Also, since the majority of the basin lies in the Sahel zone (between lat 10oN and 20o N and long 20oW and 10oE), 16 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks researches on characterization of current climatic variability and future climate change have been... which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited 4 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks impacts of climate change; ranging from recurrent droughts, Niger River zero flow of 1984 and 1985 at Malaville and Niamey ( Benin and Niger) respectively, to shrinkage and disappearance of Lake Chad, devastation... Adaptation to Future Climate Change for Crop Farms XI XII Preface Section 4: Climate Change and Its Impacts on Uncertainties /Risks emphasis on the Methods of Estimating Uncertainty of Climate Prediction and Climate Change Projection, Climate Change Risks in Nigeria: the perspectives of energy production systems, Study of Adapting climate change in local level urban planning, Effect of Climate Change on Mountain... elements are changed by a realistic but 22 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks arbitrary amount, often according to a qualitative interpretation of climate model simulations for a region Most studies have adopted synthetic scenarios of constant changes throughout the year [47] but some have introduced seasonal and spatial variations in the changes [48] and others have... 9 and 10] A rainfall decrease of 29 – 49 percent has been observed in the 1968 – 1997 period compared to the 1931 – 1960 baseline period within the Sahel region [6] (Source: NOAA NCDC Global Historical Climatology Network Data) Figure 4 Typical Rainfall Anomalies (1900 -2011) over West African Sudano-Sahel zone (11-18N and West of 10E) 8 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and. .. the average river flow of the recent time slice (1982-2000) in table 3 is far lower than the previous reference time period (1960-1981) The logical consequence of a decline in precipitation and streamflow is a change in the timing and magnitude of the precipitation and streamflow pattern 12 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks Mean Annual Type of Rainfall(mm) Rainfall... 3: Climate Change and Its Effects on Soil and Agriculture gives special focus on Impact of climate change on vegetation and permafrost in West Siberia Subarctic, Adapting rain fed agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa to climate change: Challenges and opportunities, Climate Change Assessment due to Long Term Soil Moisture Change and its Applicability Using Satellite Observations and Potential Impacts and. .. Melting and Growing Crises, Changes in Physical Features of Alpine Glaciers in Response to Climate Change, A Methodology to Interpret Climate Change due to Influences of the Orbital Parameter on Changes of Earth’s Rotation Rate and Obliquity and Climate Change Impact On Tree Architectural Development And Leaf Area etc Section 2: Climate Change and Its Hydrological Effects deals with Water Economy and Climate. .. development and investment in the region is evident too, and the Niger River holds tremendous development potentials Development opportunities range from 14 Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks those directly related to the river, such as power, irrigation, and navigation, to those “beyond the river,” such as increases in trade, communication investments, and enhanced . CLIMATE CHANGE – REALITIES, IMPACTS OVER ICE CAP, SEA LEVEL AND RISKS Edited by Bharat Raj Singh Climate Change – Realities, Impacts. and high level of vulnerability of the area to Climate Change – Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks 4 impacts of climate change; ranging